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Newbie Mafia 2! [Mafia Win!]
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adam2046 wrote:
I wont be arounf for a little while, if anyone wants to lynch poor little defensless me (SFG) please don't.
You'll make me cryyyyyy T.T
watadam2046 wrote:
Don't you try and allay (^_~) suspicion from yourself by pointing out her.
well i suppose i am a bit suspicious because when you were mafia last game i couldnt tell that you were at ALL. i think it might have been nardi that pointed a FOS at adam or maybe the FOS wa-oh fuck it let me go find the post
yeah 0_o pointed a FOS at adam and nardi and i chose adam.
also im lol'ing about how you guys are trying to pick apart logic that doesn't exist @_@ also im sick of vote-hopping which is why i havent changed it
yeah 0_o pointed a FOS at adam and nardi and i chose adam.
also im lol'ing about how you guys are trying to pick apart logic that doesn't exist @_@ also im sick of vote-hopping which is why i havent changed it
Hey, I'm not the one claiming doctor.
were you not listening when i said that the reason i dont want strager lynched is that B/C HE CLAIMED DOCTOR i dont want to risk lynching an aux on day 1
That was @ strager not you, you ninja'd me.
adam2046 wrote:
Hey, I'm not the one claiming doctor.
watadam2046 wrote:
Don't you try and allay (^_~) suspicion from yourself by pointing out her.
EDIT: Ignore this (see adam's last post =X).
I don't get it...
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adam2046 wrote:
I don't get it...
Are you two referring to my wat post? If so I'll explain.Echo wrote:
Neither do I.
revote strager
First he says "don't kill me, SFG" (in more words) then accuses me of "pointing out her" as a way to "allay suspicion from me." That is, he did what he told me not to do.
The second wat post was a mistake; I was being stupid then. xD
Ok, you can kill me now (no don't) didn't take as long as I expected.
Echo, why are you voting for strager after specifically stating that Day 1 was a bad time to lynch an important aux claim?
Read part one of my monster post (link).Saturos-fangirl wrote:
Echo, why are you voting for strager after specifically stating that Day 1 was a bad time to lynch an important aux claim?
no, i get that he suspects that you arent doctor but not why hes violating a "basic principle" he set out in a different mafia game. THAT is what i want him to explain.
In my mind all Echo was really doing was hinting to to strager that if he was the real doctor he should unclaim or not claim at all, because strager has continued I think Echo may have come to the conclusion that strager is a wolf.
...At least that's my analysis of the situation.
...At least that's my analysis of the situation.
I didn't get that at all from Echo. =Xadam2046 wrote:
In my mind all Echo was really doing was hinting to to strager that if he was the real doctor he should unclaim or not claim at all, because strager has continued I think Echo may have come to the conclusion that strager is a wolf.
...At least that's my analysis of the situation.
But the deed is done and I'm not going back on my word.
I have these suspicion percentages (0 - definitely Townie; 100 - definitely Mafia; 50 - undecided):
adam - 40%
BagelBob - 40%
nadi - 40%
SFG - 40%
Olinad - 50%
Derekku - 60%
0_o - 65%
Echo - 100%
These are estimates of course but shows my relative suspicions for everyone.
Yes, I am 100% sure Echo is a Mafia.
adam - 40%
BagelBob - 40%
nadi - 40%
SFG - 40%
Olinad - 50%
Derekku - 60%
0_o - 65%
Echo - 100%
These are estimates of course but shows my relative suspicions for everyone.
Yes, I am 100% sure Echo is a Mafia.
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So everyone is 40% mafia.strager wrote:
These are estimates of course but shows my relative suspicions for everyone.
Lynch me~!strager wrote:
Yes, I am 100% sure Echo is a Mafia.
Basically what adam said - I'm pretty sure that strager is not doctor, which is why I'm voting him.Saturos-fangirl wrote:
Echo, why are you voting for strager after specifically stating that Day 1 was a bad time to lynch an important aux claim?
Right. =X0_o wrote:
OK, could you PLEASE explain why I am the second most suspicious person for BELIEVING and DEFENDING you? It seems like if you were the doctor then you wouldn't find me wanting to keep you alive so much suspicious...
But that doesn't matter now because I'm more concerned about getting a known Mafia lynched.
My opinions will likely change as more things come about.
What?Echo wrote:
So everyone is 40% mafia.strager wrote:
These are estimates of course but shows my relative suspicions for everyone.
I'll ignore that, just as I ignored adam's.Echo wrote:
Lynch me~!strager wrote:
Yes, I am 100% sure Echo is a Mafia.
But you have to assume I am a Mafia otherwise you'd be killing a Townie. (Just to mention.)Echo wrote:
Basically what adam said - I'm pretty sure that strager is not doctor, which is why I'm voting him.Saturos-fangirl wrote:
Echo, why are you voting for strager after specifically stating that Day 1 was a bad time to lynch an important aux claim?
I have decided to do something I said I wouldn't do.
Unvote
Unvote
More backwards trickiness from strager.strager wrote:
But you have to assume I am a Mafia otherwise you'd be killing a Townie. (Just to mention.)
My thinking leads me to believe you're mafia which THEN results in my lynch vote.
You're saying I'm voting to lynch you which THEN makes me try to push the idea you're mafia? o.O
WIFOM WIFOM WIFOM WIFOM
*head is spinning*
*head is spinning*
Actually when proofreading this I noticed you may have gotten me wrong on the sequence of events.
Actually when proofreading this I noticed I was compeletely misunderstanding your statement.
Actually I think I'll just remove that part about me trying to make you understand based of my own misunderstandings of what you misunderstand.
ANYWAY, it's gone now and here's what I really need to say.
----------
I realized now that when I had four players voting for me, no one jumped on the bandwagon for the lynch. This means one of these:
Both Mafia were on the bandwagon already.
I am a Mafia and the other Mafia may or may not have been on the bandwagon. If he was, he would have certainly jumped off at L-1 and probably at L-2.
One or no Mafia were on the bandwagon and the remaining Mafia could not vote to lynch in time.
I am of course striking off the second and am thinking the first is more likely than the third.
Actually when proofreading this I noticed I was compeletely misunderstanding your statement.
Actually I think I'll just remove that part about me trying to make you understand based of my own misunderstandings of what you misunderstand.
ANYWAY, it's gone now and here's what I really need to say.
No I'm not saying that. I meant that your statement:Echo wrote:
My thinking leads me to believe you're mafia which THEN results in my lynch vote.
You're saying I'm voting to lynch you which THEN makes me try to push the idea you're mafia? o.O
Meant "I'm pretty sure strager is a Mafia, which is why I'm voting for him."Echo wrote:
I'm pretty sure that strager is not doctor, which is why I'm voting him.
----------
I realized now that when I had four players voting for me, no one jumped on the bandwagon for the lynch. This means one of these:
Both Mafia were on the bandwagon already.
I am a Mafia and the other Mafia may or may not have been on the bandwagon. If he was, he would have certainly jumped off at L-1 and probably at L-2.
One or no Mafia were on the bandwagon and the remaining Mafia could not vote to lynch in time.
I am of course striking off the second and am thinking the first is more likely than the third.
I like it when I run unicow's puffy balls all over my face.Derekku Chan wrote:
WIFOM WIFOM WIFOM WIFOM
*head is spinning*
I bet you do. :> Also you said this 25 minutes too early. I JUST got to that part. XPstrager wrote:
I like it when I run unicow's puffy balls all over my face.Derekku Chan wrote:
WIFOM WIFOM WIFOM WIFOM
*head is spinning*
[/offtopic]
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ok...
So strager you're almost certain I'm human, so you stuck me at 40% with BagelBob?
So strager you're almost certain I'm human, so you stuck me at 40% with BagelBob?
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It was more of a relative scale than an absolute scale. 40% is more like, "meh, he's acting more of a Townie than a Mafia."adam2046 wrote:
ok...
So strager you're almost certain I'm human, so you stuck me at 40% with BagelBob?
I'm basically thinking aloud and leaving only the first and third option open. (It was also like 03:19 so I was pretty wonky then.)Echo wrote:
I never ever get the point of listing out all the possibilities. Well of course it's one of the three.strager wrote:
I realized now that when I had four players voting for me, no one jumped on the bandwagon for the lynch. This means one of these:
Both Mafia were on the bandwagon already.
I am a Mafia and the other Mafia may or may not have been on the bandwagon. If he was, he would have certainly jumped off at L-1 and probably at L-2.
One or no Mafia were on the bandwagon and the remaining Mafia could not vote to lynch in time.
I am of course striking off the second and am thinking the first is more likely than the third.
Now, if you list only two out of three, for example, and say why the third can't be possible, with evidence, then that's a totally different story.
In the first case I deduce one of these to be a Mafia: adam, SFG, nardi
In the third case I deduce these are probably NOT Mafia (because they didn't jump on the bandwagon): Derekku, 0_o
For the first case it seems as if adam's vote was random and SFG's vote was only somewhat random, as was nardi's. So my suspicions for the latter two are above my suspicions for adam. From that I really can't say much more though.
For the third case, 0_o seems to be really trying to defend me which either means he's deceitful (and will kill me at night) or genuinely trying to help the town. I'm not foolish enough to denounce the former but based on my observation above he may be a Townie more than a Mafia.
I really don't know what to think of Derekku because he hasn't been doing much from what I can see, really. He could be bad at analysis, not have information to discuss, or is smart enough not to talk because he may leak information. So ... not really sure.
Interestingly this is almost opposite of my previous suspicion list. I believe my thinking then was leaning toward the third case but I didn't reference posts or anything when I wrote it, so it was purely out of feeling.
So I don't know what I should believe. My gut, or my reasoning? Probably my reasoning. (My gut feelings seem to have gotten me burned before, a la Echo's hate of my adam-is-a-Townie conclusion.)
Where does it seem random?strager wrote:
For the first case it seems as if adam's vote was random
Where does it seem random?strager wrote:
and SFG's vote was only somewhat random
Where does it seem random?strager wrote:
as was nardi's.
Where does it seem deceitful?strager wrote:
0_o seems to be really trying to defend me which either means he's deceitful
Where does he seem helpful?strager wrote:
or genuinely trying to help the town.
The problem, as you adequately put it, is that you "didn't reference posts or anything when I wrote it, so it was purely out of feeling." Feelings can't prove anything.strager wrote:
Probably my reasoning.
"I'll just vote for whoever seems the most suspicious without any evidence."Echo wrote:
Where does it seem random?strager wrote:
For the first case it seems as if adam's vote was randomWhere does it seem random?strager wrote:
and SFG's vote was only somewhat randomWhere does it seem random?strager wrote:
as was nardi's.
Get on my good side then eventually kill me at night.Echo wrote:
Where does it seem deceitful?strager wrote:
0_o seems to be really trying to defend me which either means he's deceitful
Defend the Doctor.Echo wrote:
Where does he seem helpful?strager wrote:
or genuinely trying to help the town.
You're supporting what I said about the random votes.Echo wrote:
The problem, as you adequately put it, is that you "didn't reference posts or anything when I wrote it, so it was purely out of feeling." Feelings can't prove anything.strager wrote:
Probably my reasoning.
And yes, I do realize I made a mistake in posting that list. Now I posted a pseudolist with some reasoning.
Topic Starter
Votecount 4:
strager - 3 (adam, nardi, Echo)
adam - 2 (0_o, SFG)
SFG - 1 (BagelBob)
Not voting: 3 - (Olinad, Derekku, Strager)
strager - 3 (adam, nardi, Echo)
adam - 2 (0_o, SFG)
SFG - 1 (BagelBob)
Not voting: 3 - (Olinad, Derekku, Strager)
*sigh*
I'm starting to tldr this Echo-strager exchange, it just keeps going and circles and it just feels like it isn't getting anywhere.
Can the people who have not voted please hurry up and make a decision, this is just getting ridiculous...
Sorry if I sound impatient, but honestly, I am
I'm starting to tldr this Echo-strager exchange, it just keeps going and circles and it just feels like it isn't getting anywhere.
Can the people who have not voted please hurry up and make a decision, this is just getting ridiculous...
Sorry if I sound impatient, but honestly, I am
All of this is completely baseless. Could you provide any reasoning at all for these numbers? I realize you say later that you changed your mind, but at this time, what made you choose these numbers? Do you have any reasons for Echo being 100% mafia? Why are Derekku and 0_o above 50? Why are the rest of us above 50?strager wrote:
I have these suspicion percentages (0 - definitely Townie; 100 - definitely Mafia; 50 - undecided):
adam - 40%
BagelBob - 40%
nadi - 40%
SFG - 40%
Olinad - 50%
Derekku - 60%
0_o - 65%
Echo - 100%
These are estimates of course but shows my relative suspicions for everyone.
Yes, I am 100% sure Echo is a Mafia.
This post is full of nothings. First, you say you come to two realizations. Then, you don't post them, and say you'll remove them from your post. Next, you quote Echo and restate his post. In your last section, you present a logical fallacy known as false dichotomy. Those are not the only options, there could have been one voting for you and mafia could have any reasons for voting or not voting for you. With this and all your short posts, it's like your posting without saying anything.
Can I assume from This post that you no longer consider Echo a mafia member? In addition, did you mean that adam, SFG, and nardii's votes looked like bandwagon votes? You state that you think 0_o and Derekuu were not on the bandwagon, but then you throw junk about random voting. Adam's vote started out random, but he kept posting and saying that he was reading the thread and agreed with Echo's logic.
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SFG is not voting me because of 0_o, I do not find it said anywhere.
The numbers were just to state relative suspicions. nardi is less suspicious than 0_o, for example. I used numbers instead of a simple list to group similarly suspicious people together (the 40%'s) and to point out Echo as a Mafia more than just "most suspicious." Again, looking back it was a pretty dumb thing to do.BagelBob wrote:
All of this is completely baseless. Could you provide any reasoning at all for these numbers? I realize you say later that you changed your mind, but at this time, what made you choose these numbers? Do you have any reasons for Echo being 100% mafia? Why are Derekku and 0_o above 50? Why are the rest of us above 50?strager wrote:
I have these suspicion percentages (0 - definitely Townie; 100 - definitely Mafia; 50 - undecided):
adam - 40%
BagelBob - 40%
nadi - 40%
SFG - 40%
Olinad - 50%
Derekku - 60%
0_o - 65%
Echo - 100%
These are estimates of course but shows my relative suspicions for everyone.
Yes, I am 100% sure Echo is a Mafia.
See my pseudo-raging (link).BagelBob wrote:
Do you have any reasons for Echo being 100% mafia?
Actually those first three lines were saying "I totally misread your post so I deleted what I had here before." I thought he was asking me how he voted for me, which kinda confused me so I came back to it later then realized what he meant.BagelBob wrote:
This post is full of nothings. First, you say you come to two realizations. Then, you don't post them, and say you'll remove them from your post.
I could have left those three lines out, but it was so late I wasn't thinking too strait (see all my late-night posts). I should stop posting so late. x_x
Yes, I was explaining why I said something, because Echo asked for an explanation (Echo's quote expanded for clarification):BagelBob wrote:
Next, you quote Echo and restate his post.
strager wrote:
No I'm not saying that. I meant that your statement:Echo wrote:
More backwards trickiness from strager.strager wrote:
But you have to assume I am a Mafia otherwise you'd be killing a Townie. (Just to mention.)
My thinking leads me to believe you're mafia which THEN results in my lynch vote.
You're saying I'm voting to lynch you which THEN makes me try to push the idea you're mafia? o.OMeant "I'm pretty sure strager is a Mafia, which is why I'm voting for him."Echo wrote:
I'm pretty sure that strager is not doctor, which is why I'm voting him.
Ah, I had not even considered this. I would expect the Mafia to try and kill a Townie as soon as the chance arises. I don't see a reason why they wouldn't so it'd be nice if you could point at least one out.BagelBob wrote:
In your last section, you present a logical fallacy known as false dichotomy. Those are not the only options, there could have been one voting for you and mafia could have any reasons for voting or not voting for you. With this and all your short posts, it's like your posting without saying anything.
No, I already deduced Echo as a Mafia so you can squeeze that info in there if you want.BagelBob wrote:
Can I assume from This post that you no longer consider Echo a mafia member?
All I meant to say there that one or two of adam, Echo, nardi, and SFG were bandwagonning as a Mafia, not all of them.BagelBob wrote:
In addition, did you mean that adam, SFG, and nardii's votes looked like bandwagon votes?
Where is this "junk about random voting?"BagelBob wrote:
You state that you think 0_o and Derekuu were not on the bandwagon, but then you throw junk about random voting.
And this matters how? I already know this.BagelBob wrote:
Adam's vote started out random, but he kept posting and saying that he was reading the thread and agreed with Echo's logic.
I have to agree here; it's as if you're voting at random with "support" from another player. The number of votes on one's head shouldn't be used as a reason for voting.BagelBob wrote:
SFG, you've said you're going with adam since 0_o said he finds him suspicious. All I can find is that his gut says that. Are you satisfied lynching someone who you think is a townie?
EDIT:
I just went with BagelBob on the above. I'll investigate myself.adam2046 wrote:
SFG is not voting me because of 0_o, I do not find it said anywhere.
EDIT: Here it is (link), at least what I think BagelBob is referring to.
adam2046 wrote:
SFG is not voting me because of 0_o, I do not find it said anywhere.
kthxSaturos-fangirl wrote:
well i suppose i am a bit suspicious because when you were mafia last game i couldnt tell that you were at ALL. i think it might have been nardi that pointed a FOS at adam or maybe the FOS wa-oh fuck it let me go find the post
yeah 0_o pointed a FOS at adam and nardi and i chose adam.
also im lol'ing about how you guys are trying to pick apart logic that doesn't exist @_@ also im sick of vote-hopping which is why i havent changed it
EDIT: Didn't see page 18, looks like strager caught it
*stragerLadySuburu wrote:
Not voting: 3 - (Olinad, Derekku, Strager)
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tldr in bold, but it'd be nice if you read the details as well
And to answer your question I'm impatient because I've been sitting here reading Echo and strager go back and forth with loooong arguments for days and I feel like there hasn't been any progress. I'm getting bored; I just want to get the game moving.
Though now that I think about it, you could probably use the exact same logic against me... lol, well then
Oh well, I'm not confident enough to vote for Echo, and I feel like I don't have a case against anyone else, so yes, right now I guess it's mainly just my gut instincts against adam ^_^ if someone else happens to jump my radar then I will gladly change my vote, but right now he's just the only person I feel comfortable with voting for.
He isn't a zero on my suspicion-o-meter that's for sure, but I think the odds of him being the doctor are worth keeping him around at least for today.
Anything else?
Not sure how me being impatient and me defending strager are correlated...Bagelbob wrote:
0_o, why are you in such a hurry? Is it because you were buddying with strager earlier?
And to answer your question I'm impatient because I've been sitting here reading Echo and strager go back and forth with loooong arguments for days and I feel like there hasn't been any progress. I'm getting bored; I just want to get the game moving.
You haven't posted much in the way of cases. In fact, your reason for voting adam, is it still your gut?Now that WWG3 is over I can actually say this: IMO he's been acting similar to when he was in WWG3, and I knew he was a wolf then because I was a wolf myself
Though now that I think about it, you could probably use the exact same logic against me... lol, well then
Oh well, I'm not confident enough to vote for Echo, and I feel like I don't have a case against anyone else, so yes, right now I guess it's mainly just my gut instincts against adam ^_^ if someone else happens to jump my radar then I will gladly change my vote, but right now he's just the only person I feel comfortable with voting for.
I'd like it if you could state your opinions on strager. Do you think that he is telling the truth about being the doctor?Um, correct me if I'm wrong, but I'm pretty sure almost every post I've made so far has said my opinion on strager
He isn't a zero on my suspicion-o-meter that's for sure, but I think the odds of him being the doctor are worth keeping him around at least for today.If yes, do you think Echo is a mafia member?.I can't say for sure he isn't mafia, but I feel like our differing opinions are based mainly on different interpretations of strager's posts, and again, I'm not gonna vote for someone just because they have a different opinion than me.
it looks to me like you're trying to stay out of the whole messI haven't posted lately because I've had nothing to say; we've hardly made any progress in the last few pages (until now), and I've already stated my opinions on the Echo-strager/adam issue several times over.
Anything else?
Did you bother looking in the first Mafia thread?
Both olinad and nardi have both pretty much contributed NOTHING to this topic's discussion.
BUT
I'm not even counting that as a "random" vote because he hasn't even come back to say otherwise.
Vote: nardi.
BUT
he was quick to jump on the bangwagon and vote for strager without any reasoning or proof.nardi11011 wrote:
It's annoying that 90% of the posts in mafia/ww game threads are made when I'm either asleep or at school. Anyway, I vote strager as he seems the most suspicious to me and this game is confusing as hell compared to WWG.
I'm not even counting that as a "random" vote because he hasn't even come back to say otherwise.
Vote: nardi.
I've stated this a while ago.adam2046 wrote:
So you're no longer certain I'm human Strager, right?
It looks like you're dodging the question there. Why?0_o wrote:
If yes, do you think Echo is a mafia member?.I can't say for sure he isn't mafia
What bangwagon? ;PDerekku Chan wrote:
Both olinad and nardi have both pretty much contributed NOTHING to this topic's discussion.
BUThe was quick to jump on the bangwagon and vote for strager without any reasoning or proof.nardi11011 wrote:
It's annoying that 90% of the posts in mafia/ww game threads are made when I'm either asleep or at school. Anyway, I vote strager as he seems the most suspicious to me and this game is confusing as hell compared to WWG.
I have to agree but as a Mafia why would he do this at L-2 and not L-1? (I asked BagelBob this in my last "real" post.)
Because no one accused it of not being a random vote? He was never attacked so he wouldn't defend himself. If he did defend himself in advanced that'd looks suspicious because it'd seem as if he had something to hide.nardi11011 wrote:
I'm not even counting that as a "random" vote because he hasn't even come back to say otherwise.
No one's random vote was explicitly denoted as a random vote by the voter, either.
So I don't really see your reasoning here Derekku.
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This map has been deleted on the request of its creator. It is no longer available.
By the time nardi voted for you, strager, two other people had voted for you. He seemed to only vote for you because you were the "most suspicious", which isn't a good reason imo.strager wrote:
What bangwagon? ;P
I meant in the case that nardi's vote WAS a random vote, which I don't think it was, but I wanted to cover that groundstrager wrote:
No one's random vote was explicitly denoted as a random vote by the voter, either.
Derek missed the joke...
On the bandwagon against strager? I've already stated many times that I believe strager isn't mafia. :/adam2046 wrote:
The only person jumping strager's bangwagon is Derek.
If you meant the bandwagon that thinks strager is innocent, then yes, I'm on it, but so is like of us. >_>
So I really don't get what you meant.
Derek is still missing the joke...
=( It's late and you guys are making fun of me. D:
EDIT: Yeah, I'm not seeing it. *very tired tonight* Hint plz
EDIT: Yeah, I'm not seeing it. *very tired tonight* Hint plz
nardi's vote was not random because he stated he had a general idea and that strager seemed suspicious.strager wrote:
What bangwagon? ;PDerekku Chan wrote:
Both olinad and nardi have both pretty much contributed NOTHING to this topic's discussion.
BUThe was quick to jump on the bangwagon and vote for strager without any reasoning or proof.nardi11011 wrote:
It's annoying that 90% of the posts in mafia/ww game threads are made when I'm either asleep or at school. Anyway, I vote strager as he seems the most suspicious to me and this game is confusing as hell compared to WWG.
I have to agree but as a Mafia why would he do this at L-2 and not L-1? (I asked BagelBob this in my last "real" post.)Because no one accused it of not being a random vote? He was never attacked so he wouldn't defend himself. If he did defend himself in advanced that'd looks suspicious because it'd seem as if he had something to hide.nardi11011 wrote:
I'm not even counting that as a "random" vote because he hasn't even come back to say otherwise.
No one's random vote was explicitly denoted as a random vote by the voter, either.
So I don't really see your reasoning here Derekku.
Your vote on Echo and 0_o's vote on adam were random, they have no base. strager's vote is a bandwagon vote, because he votes for the most popular guy without adding anything.
As for his timing, he did it when he did it. No one new jumped on after him.
As for "defending himself in advance" looking suspicious, that's exactly what you did when you claimed doctor.
In a single sentence:
What strager's been posting are plain facts (reiterating the obvious as explained by BagelBob in his third point), mostly baseless accusations (eg. this post right here, make sure you read previous/next post(s) for context), or blatant coverups of his contradictions (eg. most points in this post).
My vote holds until someone provides a convincing case for strager's behaviour.
That is all.
(edit: found some references)
What strager's been posting are plain facts (reiterating the obvious as explained by BagelBob in his third point), mostly baseless accusations (eg. this post right here, make sure you read previous/next post(s) for context), or blatant coverups of his contradictions (eg. most points in this post).
My vote holds until someone provides a convincing case for strager's behaviour.
That is all.
(edit: found some references)
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I think you're actually supporting me by saying I don't know anything.Echo wrote:
In a single sentence:
What strager's been posting are plain facts (reiterating the obvious as explained by BagelBob in his third point), mostly baseless accusations (eg. this post right here, make sure you read previous/next post(s) for context), or blatant coverups of his contradictions (eg. most points in this post).
My vote holds until someone provides a convincing case for strager's behaviour.
That is all.
(edit: found some references)
Read what I quoted from you carefully, and read my response.Derekku Chan wrote:
=( It's late and you guys are making fun of me. D:
EDIT: Yeah, I'm not seeing it. *very tired tonight* Hint plz
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This map has been deleted on the request of its creator. It is no longer available.
*suppresses rage*
fine if you WANT to get lynched and be emo instead of helping the town and youre BOUND and DETERMINED to do so despite my attempts to save you, go the fuck ahead. I give up on saving you.
unvote
no vote
fine if you WANT to get lynched and be emo instead of helping the town and youre BOUND and DETERMINED to do so despite my attempts to save you, go the fuck ahead. I give up on saving you.
unvote
no vote
I'm not saying your vote is right or wrong. I'm just saying it's without real reason or justification, and it's better to have a convincing argument behind your vote.Saturos-fangirl wrote:
*suppresses rage*
fine if you WANT to get lynched and be emo instead of helping the town and youre BOUND and DETERMINED to do so despite my attempts to save you, go the fuck ahead. I give up on saving you.
unvote
no vote
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I'm really not trying to attack you. I'm just saying "you have no reason from what I see." I'm not demanding an explanation. I see where you are coming from but I don't see that as a real reason from my perspective. That's all.Saturos-fangirl wrote:
im not going to respond until i have cooled down cus right now, strager, your impossible "logic" is pissing me off SO much. This game has ceased to be fun for me when everyone instantly objects to every action i make. I thought my logic was clear-cut but you don't seem to be understanding it despite every attempt on my part to educate you. im completely sick of your idiocy.
maybe im overreacting a bit but i feel like im getting attacked every time i try to help. This is a game, not a war zone. I'll try again tomorrow i guess and see if things have improved then.
...strager wrote:
Read what I quoted from you carefully, and read my response.Derekku Chan wrote:
=( It's late and you guys are making fun of me. D:
EDIT: Yeah, I'm not seeing it. *very tired tonight* Hint plz
*facepalm*
Wow I really am tired tonight...
Also, a bangwagon sounds sexy~
Votes thus far:
strager: Echo
0_o: adam
adam: strager
Echo: SFG
0_o: -
0_o: SFG
0_o: -
Echo: -
viewtopic.php?p=139863#p139863
SFG: strager
0_o: nardi
Echo: strager
nardi: strager
0_o: -
0_o: adam
Derekku: Echo
viewtopic.php?p=140697#p140697
Echo: -
SFG: -
SFG: Olinad
SFG: -
SFG: strager
SFG: -
SFG: adam
Derekku: -
viewtopic.php?p=141549#p141549
Echo: strager
strager: -
viewtopic.php?p=142229#p142229
Derekku: nardi
SFG: -
(I may have made a mistake or two. Please feel free to correct me.)
strager: Echo
0_o: adam
adam: strager
Echo: SFG
0_o: -
0_o: SFG
0_o: -
Echo: -
viewtopic.php?p=139863#p139863
SFG: strager
0_o: nardi
Echo: strager
nardi: strager
0_o: -
0_o: adam
Derekku: Echo
viewtopic.php?p=140697#p140697
Echo: -
SFG: -
SFG: Olinad
SFG: -
SFG: strager
SFG: -
SFG: adam
Derekku: -
viewtopic.php?p=141549#p141549
Echo: strager
strager: -
viewtopic.php?p=142229#p142229
Derekku: nardi
SFG: -
(I may have made a mistake or two. Please feel free to correct me.)
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what the fuck you yell at me for my vote and then you yell at me for not changing my vote and now youre yelling at me for changing my vote after you yelled at me for not changing my vote.
i really shouldnt have come back tonight...
i really shouldnt have come back tonight...
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I don't know what you are trying to get at here, but these votes were cast for kuwarudo because he was being annoying. I retracted my vote when he claimed townie right before quitting, and Echo retracted his in his next post for the obvious reason that he was replaced by someone who DOESN'T annoy him.strager wrote:
Hmm.strager wrote:
Echo: SFG
0_o: -
0_o: SFG
0_o: -
Echo: -
This really should have been obvious...
SFG's just voting for the person with the highest vote tally apart from me and strager. I don't see anything fishy about that.
Neither do I...but it's still meeeeeeee ;_;
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Because I don't like lying.nardi11011 wrote:
One thing I don't get: why did strager reveal his role instead of just saying "I was looking at the PM in the OP and was just wondering"?
Oh dear you're right. I completely forgot. x_x0_o wrote:
I don't know what you are trying to get at here, but these votes were cast for kuwarudo because he was being annoying. I retracted my vote when he claimed townie right before quitting, and Echo retracted his in his next post for the obvious reason that he was replaced by someone who DOESN'T annoy him.strager wrote:
Hmm.strager wrote:
Echo: SFG
0_o: -
0_o: SFG
0_o: -
Echo: -
This really should have been obvious...
Anyway I read somewhere that if the Town doesn't choose to lynch on the first game in a nine-player game with one Mafia the Town gets a statistical advantage, assuming completely random lynching and killing. I'll calculate how this would work with the current setup later.
strager wrote:
Anyway I read somewhere that if the Town doesn't choose to lynch on the first game in a nine-player game with one Mafia the Town gets a statistical advantage, assuming completely random lynching and killing. I'll calculate how this would work with the current setup later.
read the OP again. There are two Mafia.strager wrote:
with one Mafia
Read my post again (bold added):Saturos-fangirl wrote:
strager wrote:
Anyway I read somewhere that if the Town doesn't choose to lynch on the first game in a nine-player game with one Mafia the Town gets a statistical advantage, assuming completely random lynching and killing. I'll calculate how this would work with the current setup later.read the OP again. There are two Mafia.strager wrote:
with one Mafia
strager wrote:
Anyway I read somewhere that if the Town doesn't choose to lynch on the first game in a nine-player game with one Mafia the Town gets a statistical advantage, assuming completely random lynching and killing. I'll calculate how this would work with the current setup later.
oh sorry i can't read. ^^U
bbl making dinnorz (yes, im making dinner at 3:44PM. Guests and such whoooooo)
bbl making dinnorz (yes, im making dinner at 3:44PM. Guests and such whoooooo)
You don't need to calculate anything, no lynch on day one is disadvantageous for town.
also in retrospect it seems kinda stupid for us to, each Day, roll a n-sided die where n is the number of remaining players and lynch that person off, then expect the mafia to do the same and us to win. takes the entire point out of the game.
Of course such calculations ignore the Mafia or aux roles slipping up, but if the probability sways in favor of the Town by not lynching the first day there is likely a better chance of a Town win. (Note the use of maybies and perhapses.)Saturos-fangirl wrote:
also in retrospect it seems kinda stupid for us to, each Day, roll a n-sided die where n is the number of remaining players and lynch that person off, then expect the mafia to do the same and us to win. takes the entire point out of the game.
if we don't lynch today, the mafia get a free kill. im starting to really wonder about you, strager.
Here's what I get with my coding so far:
:!g++ -g mafia.cpp && ./a.outStill need to code the Doctor in and the Role Blocker too. Cop is ignored and I probably won't code him because he doesn't really do anything to sway the statistics except in claims and investigations and things, which are human factors.
Setup:
Mafia:
Normal: 2
Role blocker: 0
Town:
Normal: 9
Doctor: 0
Mafia wins 64.790765% of the time with lynch on Day 1
Mafia wins 78.437500% of the time with no lynch on Day 1
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Final results;
So I guess it is bad for us not to lynch on the first day.
Source code:
:!for players in MRCDTTTTT MRTTTTTTT MMCTTTTTT MMDTTTTTT; do ./a.out $players; echo; done
Setup:
Mafia:
Normal: 1
Role blocker: 1
Town:
Normal: 6
Doctor: 1
Mafia wins 57.069781% of the time with lynch on Day 1
Mafia wins 65.034042% of the time with no lynch on Day 1
Setup:
Mafia:
Normal: 1
Role blocker: 1
Town:
Normal: 7
Doctor: 0
Mafia wins 70.158730% of the time with lynch on Day 1
Mafia wins 84.375000% of the time with no lynch on Day 1
Setup:
Mafia:
Normal: 2
Role blocker: 0
Town:
Normal: 7
Doctor: 0
Mafia wins 70.158730% of the time with lynch on Day 1
Mafia wins 84.375000% of the time with no lynch on Day 1
Setup:
Mafia:
Normal: 2
Role blocker: 0
Town:
Normal: 6
Doctor: 1
Mafia wins 54.693878% of the time with lynch on Day 1
Mafia wins 61.345564% of the time with no lynch on Day 1
So I guess it is bad for us not to lynch on the first day.
Source code:
#include <cstdio>
struct Players
{
enum { NumRoles = 4, NumMafiaRoles = 2, NumTownRoles = 2 };
union
{
struct
{
int mafiaNormal, mafiaRoleBlocker;
int townNormal, townDoctor;
};
struct
{
int mafiaRoles[NumMafiaRoles];
int townRoles[NumTownRoles];
};
int roles[NumRoles];
};
Players()
{
for(int i = 0; i < NumRoles; ++i)
roles[i] = 0;
}
int town() const
{
return townNormal + townDoctor;
}
int mafia() const
{
return mafiaNormal + mafiaRoleBlocker;
}
int total() const
{
return town() + mafia();
}
};
/* 1 = Mafia win; 0 = Town win. */
double checkPossibilities(Players players, bool lynch = true)
{
if(players.town() <= players.mafia())
return 1;
if(players.mafia() == 0)
return 0;
if(lynch)
{
double prob = 0;
for(int role = 0; role < Players::NumRoles; ++role)
{
if(players.roles[role] == 0)
continue;
double weight = (double)players.roles[role] / players.total();
Players newPlayers = players;
--newPlayers.roles[role];
prob += weight * checkPossibilities(newPlayers, false);
}
return prob;
}
/* Handle kills. */
double prob = 0;
for(int townRole = 0; townRole < Players::NumTownRoles; ++townRole)
{
if(players.townRoles[townRole] == 0)
continue;
double weight = (double)players.townRoles[townRole] / players.town();
if(townRole != 1) /* Doctor can't defend himself. */
{
weight *= 1 - (double)players.townDoctor / (players.total() - 1) /* Doctor(s) defends at random. */
* (1 - (double)players.mafiaRoleBlocker / (players.town())); /* Role blocker(s) block Doctor at random. */
}
Players newPlayers = players;
--newPlayers.townRoles[townRole];
prob += weight * checkPossibilities(newPlayers, true);
}
return prob;
}
Players playersFromString(const char *playerString)
{
Players players;
for(/* */; *playerString; ++playerString)
{
switch(*playerString)
{
case 'T':
case 'C':
++players.townNormal;
break;
case 'D':
++players.townDoctor;
break;
case 'M':
++players.mafiaNormal;
break;
case 'R':
++players.mafiaRoleBlocker;
break;
}
}
return players;
}
int main(int argc, char **argv)
{
if(argc != 2)
{
fprintf(stderr, "Argument must be string of players (_M_afia, _R_ole blocker, _T_own, _C_op, _D_octor) e.g. MDTTTTTTT\n");
return 1;
}
Players players = playersFromString(argv[1]);
printf("Setup:\n");
printf("\tMafia:\n");
printf("\t\tNormal: %d\n", players.mafiaNormal);
printf("\t\tRole blocker: %d\n", players.mafiaRoleBlocker);
printf("\tTown:\n");
printf("\t\tNormal: %d\n", players.townNormal);
printf("\t\tDoctor: %d\n", players.townDoctor);
printf("\n");
printf("Mafia wins %f%% of the time with lynch on Day 1\n", checkPossibilities(players, true) * 100);
printf("Mafia wins %f%% of the time with no lynch on Day 1\n", checkPossibilities(players, false) * 100);
return 0;
}
I call BS, you meant to claim your roll. I was in the IRC with you before the game started. You could have sent your question as a PM to Suburu. You could have easily said that you were just curious. While lies generally do not help the town, the doctor role-claiming on the first day is worse.strager wrote:
Because I don't like lying.nardi11011 wrote:
One thing I don't get: why did strager reveal his role instead of just saying "I was looking at the PM in the OP and was just wondering"?
Also, why are you ignoring these two posts?
Neither of those two pieces of code deals with our set-up. Why are you wasting time with things that don't apply? You can code all day, but when you get down to it, we aren't lynching someone at random. All that code does is consume time and block discussion.
strager, are you NOT fucking listening? There's no point in coding over 9000 lines of code. No lynch day 1 = Free kill for mafia.
Should we also NOT lynch day 2? Day 3?
Like SFG said, I'm starting to wonder about you, strager
Should we also NOT lynch day 2? Day 3?
Like SFG said, I'm starting to wonder about you, strager
Read what I wrote:Derekku Chan wrote:
strager, are you NOT fucking listening? There's no point in coding over 9000 lines of code. No lynch day 1 = Free kill for mafia.
Should we also NOT lynch day 2? Day 3?
Like SFG said, I'm starting to wonder about you, strager
strager wrote:
That may be true, but with eight players total and one Mafia you'll observe:Saturos-fangirl wrote:
if we don't lynch today, the mafia get a free kill. im starting to really wonder about you, strager.:!g++ -g mafia.cpp && ./a.out
Setup:
Mafia:
Normal: 1
Role blocker: 0
Town:
Normal: 7
Doctor: 0
Mafia wins 54.687500% of the time with lynch on Day 1
Mafia wins 45.714286% of the time with no lynch on Day 1
What you seem to be missing is
A) We have nine people and
B) we aren't going to lynch at random
A) We have nine people and
B) we aren't going to lynch at random
No lynch d1 is disadvantageous for town. Plus, a lynch also shows voting patterns, which helps later on in the game to identify mafia. Please don't post pages of code, no one's going to read it anyway.
strager, you don't seem to realize that in every setup for this game, there are TWO mafia. Unless you think that one of them is going to kill the other at night, then I don't know what the hell you're trying to get at.
One, before the game started, I didn't have the Doctor PM.BagelBob wrote:
I call BS, you meant to claim your roll. I was in the IRC with you before the game started. You could have sent your question as a PM to Suburu. You could have easily said that you were just curious. While lies generally do not help the town, the doctor role-claiming on the first day is worse.strager wrote:
Because I don't like lying.nardi11011 wrote:
One thing I don't get: why did strager reveal his role instead of just saying "I was looking at the PM in the OP and was just wondering"?
Two, if I lied, I would have to stay with that lie. I would rather stay with the truth.
Three, claiming Doctor was an accident. I've said this several times I think.
The second post I may have missed. I have nothing to comment on it though.BagelBob wrote:
Also, why are you ignoring these two posts?
The first post I thought I responded to, but apparently I didn't. Here's my response:
That is correct.BagelBob wrote:
From what I see in that post, I can only think that you're voting for Echo because Echo was attacking you. Is this correct? Is there anything else that I'm missing?
It was relative suspicion at the time. The list can be disregarded now as my opinion has changed, though.BagelBob wrote:
And again, Why are Derekku and 0_o above 50? Why are the rest of us below 50? Was that whole chart just BS?
Echo misunderstood. He thought I was saying he thought I was a Mafia because he voted for me, and this is what he posted. What I had THOUGHT he posted was that I should tell him why he voted for me, or something, which was really confusing.BagelBob wrote:
But you didn't leave them out, and now you ought to explain what you said. Who mixed up a sequence of events and which sequence of events was it? What is it that you misunderstood? Do you need clarification on some matter?
When I finally posted that, though, I DID understand what he meant. The few lines which probably confused people were saying I at first DIDN'T understand but now (and at the time I hit the submit button for that post) I DID.
Again, I wasn't trying to explain anything. I WAS re-stating.BagelBob wrote:
This section is just a re-statement. I don't see any explanations, nor a need for any. Of course Echo thinks that you're a mafia. My first clue was the case, my second was the vote. I know you didn't think that Echo thought you were a vanilla townie. There was a whole section about whether or not you were fake-claiming as a townie, with Echo definitively of the mind that that would be a bad idea. You're saying that to make it look like Echo is lynching a townie. You should have at least said doctor, since that's what you're claiming to be.
Circular reasoning?BagelBob wrote:
A quick-lynch, such as the one you described, would generally be an obvious scum-tell.
I never said that. The exact thing you quoted:BagelBob wrote:
Really, adam and Echo bandwagoning? Adam was the first one to vote for you, and Echo has been making the case.
strager wrote:
All I meant to say there that one or two of adam, Echo, nardi, and SFG were bandwagonning as a Mafia, not all of them.
In chronological order:BagelBob wrote:
your junk about random voting is this:
strager wrote:
In the first case I deduce one of these to be a Mafia: adam, SFG, nardi
In the third case I deduce these are probably NOT Mafia (because they didn't jump on the bandwagon): Derekku, 0_o
For the first case it seems as if adam's vote was random and SFG's vote was only somewhat random, as was nardi's. So my suspicions for the latter two are above my suspicions for adam. From that I really can't say much more though.
For the third case, 0_o seems to be really trying to defend me which either means he's deceitful (and will kill me at night) or genuinely trying to help the town. I'm not foolish enough to denounce the former but based on my observation above he may be a Townie more than a Mafia.
I really don't know what to think of Derekku because he hasn't been doing much from what I can see, really. He could be bad at analysis, not have information to discuss, or is smart enough not to talk because he may leak information. So ... not really sure.
BagelBob wrote:
In addition, did you mean that adam, SFG, and nardii's votes looked like bandwagon votes? You state that you think 0_o and Derekuu were not on the bandwagon, but then you throw junk about random voting. Adam's vote started out random, but he kept posting and saying that he was reading the thread and agreed with Echo's logic.
The random voting part was for the first case, and the 0_o and Derekku part was for the third case.strager wrote:
Where is this "junk about random voting?"BagelBob wrote:
You state that you think 0_o and Derekuu were not on the bandwagon, but then you throw junk about random voting.
----------
(Back to the original post.)
On the first day the first lynch is probably random anyway.BagelBob wrote:
Neither of those two pieces of code deals with our set-up. Why are you wasting time with things that don't apply? You can code all day, but when you get down to it, we aren't lynching someone at random.
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Then what's the fucking point of going through all of this? This game of mafia has TWO people as mafia. =|strager wrote:
Also, some games only have one Mafia and some have three or more. (I know this specific game has two Mafia, but the game of Mafia doesn't have that ultimate rule. I was stating an example earlier.)
EDIT: It should be common sense that it's a bad choice. =)
This map has been deleted on the request of its creator. It is no longer available.
Right.0_o wrote:
I think he was just pointing out that there are situations where not lynching would be in our best interests (like if there was one mafia), and he did these calculations to see if this also applied to our situation. And now we know it doesn't.
Chill out guys
Observe my post with my final results. >_>Derekku Chan wrote:
Then what's the fucking point of going through all of this? This game of mafia has TWO people as mafia. =|strager wrote:
Also, some games only have one Mafia and some have three or more. (I know this specific game has two Mafia, but the game of Mafia doesn't have that ultimate rule. I was stating an example earlier.)
EDIT: It should be common sense that it's a bad choice. =)
In that one situation with 1 mafia where it would be better to not lynch day 1, it doesn't make sense to me. How would that work? If you don't lynch day 1, the mafia gets a free kill. At least by lynching day 1 you have a chance of killing the mafia.
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I feel obligated to post this, hopefully to clarify what some players may know from experience or whatever:
#forumshit wrote:
20:56 < BagelBob> strager
20:57 < strager> yo
20:57 < BagelBob> the reason that it turns out that no lynch is good for your 1 maf 7 town
20:57 < BagelBob> is because it's an even number of people
20:57 < strager> I know
20:57 < strager> But I know that only for one-Mafia games.
20:57 < strager> I wanted to check for OUR games.
20:57 < BagelBob> we have an odd number of people
Right, because if we did have 1 scum and 7 town, if we lynced every day, lylo would be 3 town 1 scum, instead of 2 town 1 scum. What you keep posting is an 8 person game. We do not have an 8 person game. Stop posting code.strager wrote:
I feel obligated to post this, hopefully to clarify what some players may know from experience or whatever:#forumshit wrote:
20:56 < BagelBob> strager
20:57 < strager> yo
20:57 < BagelBob> the reason that it turns out that no lynch is good for your 1 maf 7 town
20:57 < BagelBob> is because it's an even number of people
20:57 < strager> I know
20:57 < strager> But I know that only for one-Mafia games.
20:57 < strager> I wanted to check for OUR games.
20:57 < BagelBob> we have an odd number of people
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