Echo wrote:

In a single sentence:

What strager's been posting are plain facts (reiterating the obvious as explained by BagelBob in his third point), mostly baseless accusations (eg. this post right here, make sure you read previous/next post(s) for context), or blatant coverups of his contradictions (eg. most points in this post).

My vote holds until someone provides a convincing case for strager's behaviour.

That is all.

(edit: found some references)

Derekku Chan wrote:

=( It's late and you guys are making fun of me. D:

EDIT: Yeah, I'm not seeing it. *very tired tonight* Hint plz

Saturos-fangirl wrote:

*suppresses rage*

fine if you WANT to get lynched and be emo instead of helping the town and youre BOUND and DETERMINED to do so despite my attempts to save you, go the fuck ahead. I give up on saving you.

unvote
no vote

Saturos-fangirl wrote:

im not going to respond until i have cooled down cus right now, strager, your impossible "logic" is pissing me off SO much. This game has ceased to be fun for me when everyone instantly objects to every action i make. I thought my logic was clear-cut but you don't seem to be understanding it despite every attempt on my part to educate you. im completely sick of your idiocy.

maybe im overreacting a bit but i feel like im getting attacked every time i try to help. This is a game, not a war zone. I'll try again tomorrow i guess and see if things have improved then.

strager wrote:

Derekku Chan wrote:

=( It's late and you guys are making fun of me. D:

EDIT: Yeah, I'm not seeing it. *very tired tonight* Hint plz

Read what I quoted from you carefully, and read my response.

strager wrote:

strager wrote:

Echo: SFG
0_o: -
0_o: SFG
0_o: -
Echo: -

Hmm.

nardi11011 wrote:

One thing I don't get: why did strager reveal his role instead of just saying "I was looking at the PM in the OP and was just wondering"?

0_o wrote:

strager wrote:

strager wrote:

Echo: SFG
0_o: -
0_o: SFG
0_o: -
Echo: -

Hmm.

I don't know what you are trying to get at here, but these votes were cast for kuwarudo because he was being annoying. I retracted my vote when he claimed townie right before quitting, and Echo retracted his in his next post for the obvious reason that he was replaced by someone who DOESN'T annoy him.
This really should have been obvious...

strager wrote:

Anyway I read somewhere that if the Town doesn't choose to lynch on the first game in a nine-player game with one Mafia the Town gets a statistical advantage, assuming completely random lynching and killing. I'll calculate how this would work with the current setup later.

strager wrote:

with one Mafia

Saturos-fangirl wrote:

strager wrote:

Anyway I read somewhere that if the Town doesn't choose to lynch on the first game in a nine-player game with one Mafia the Town gets a statistical advantage, assuming completely random lynching and killing. I'll calculate how this would work with the current setup later.

strager wrote:

with one Mafia

read the OP again. There are two Mafia.

strager wrote:

Anyway I read somewhere that if the Town doesn't choose to lynch on the first game in a nine-player game with one Mafia the Town gets a statistical advantage, assuming completely random lynching and killing. I'll calculate how this would work with the current setup later.

Saturos-fangirl wrote:

also in retrospect it seems kinda stupid for us to, each Day, roll a n-sided die where n is the number of remaining players and lynch that person off, then expect the mafia to do the same and us to win. takes the entire point out of the game.

:!g++ -g mafia.cpp && ./a.out
Setup:
        Mafia:
                Normal: 2
                Role blocker: 0
        Town:
                Normal: 9
                Doctor: 0
Mafia wins 64.790765% of the time with lynch on Day 1
Mafia wins 78.437500% of the time with no lynch on Day 1

:!for players in MRCDTTTTT MRTTTTTTT MMCTTTTTT MMDTTTTTT; do ./a.out $players; echo; done
Setup:
        Mafia:
                Normal: 1
                Role blocker: 1
        Town:
                Normal: 6
                Doctor: 1

Mafia wins 57.069781% of the time with lynch on Day 1
Mafia wins 65.034042% of the time with no lynch on Day 1

Setup:
        Mafia:
                Normal: 1
                Role blocker: 1
        Town:
                Normal: 7
                Doctor: 0

Mafia wins 70.158730% of the time with lynch on Day 1
Mafia wins 84.375000% of the time with no lynch on Day 1

Setup:
        Mafia:
                Normal: 2
                Role blocker: 0
        Town:
                Normal: 7
                Doctor: 0

Mafia wins 70.158730% of the time with lynch on Day 1
Mafia wins 84.375000% of the time with no lynch on Day 1

Setup:
        Mafia:
                Normal: 2
                Role blocker: 0
        Town:
                Normal: 6
                Doctor: 1

Mafia wins 54.693878% of the time with lynch on Day 1
Mafia wins 61.345564% of the time with no lynch on Day 1

#include <cstdio>

struct Players
{
    enum { NumRoles = 4, NumMafiaRoles = 2, NumTownRoles = 2 };

    union
    {
        struct
        {
            int mafiaNormal, mafiaRoleBlocker;
            int townNormal, townDoctor;
        };

        struct
        {
            int mafiaRoles[NumMafiaRoles];
            int townRoles[NumTownRoles];
        };

        int roles[NumRoles];
    };

    Players()
    {
        for(int i = 0; i < NumRoles; ++i)
            roles[i] = 0;
    }

    int town() const
    {
        return townNormal + townDoctor;
    }

    int mafia() const
    {
        return mafiaNormal + mafiaRoleBlocker;
    }

    int total() const
    {
        return town() + mafia();
    }
};

/* 1 = Mafia win; 0 = Town win. */
double checkPossibilities(Players players, bool lynch = true)
{
    if(players.town() <= players.mafia())
        return 1;

    if(players.mafia() == 0)
        return 0;

    if(lynch)
    {
        double prob = 0;

        for(int role = 0; role < Players::NumRoles; ++role)
        {
            if(players.roles[role] == 0)
                continue;

            double weight = (double)players.roles[role] / players.total();

            Players newPlayers = players;
            --newPlayers.roles[role];

            prob += weight * checkPossibilities(newPlayers, false);
        }

        return prob;
    }

    /* Handle kills. */
    double prob = 0;

    for(int townRole = 0; townRole < Players::NumTownRoles; ++townRole)
    {
        if(players.townRoles[townRole] == 0)
            continue;

        double weight = (double)players.townRoles[townRole] / players.town();

        if(townRole != 1)   /* Doctor can't defend himself. */
        {
            weight *= 1 - (double)players.townDoctor / (players.total() - 1)    /* Doctor(s) defends at random. */
                * (1 - (double)players.mafiaRoleBlocker / (players.town()));    /* Role blocker(s) block Doctor at random. */
        }

        Players newPlayers = players;
        --newPlayers.townRoles[townRole];

        prob += weight * checkPossibilities(newPlayers, true);
    }

    return prob;
}

Players playersFromString(const char *playerString)
{
    Players players;

    for(/* */; *playerString; ++playerString)
    {
        switch(*playerString)
        {
            case 'T':
            case 'C':
                ++players.townNormal;
                break;

            case 'D':
                ++players.townDoctor;
                break;

            case 'M':
                ++players.mafiaNormal;
                break;

            case 'R':
                ++players.mafiaRoleBlocker;
                break;
        }
    }

    return players;
}

int main(int argc, char **argv)
{
    if(argc != 2)
    {
        fprintf(stderr, "Argument must be string of players (_M_afia, _R_ole blocker, _T_own, _C_op, _D_octor) e.g. MDTTTTTTT\n");
        return 1;
    }

    Players players = playersFromString(argv[1]);

    printf("Setup:\n");

    printf("\tMafia:\n");
    printf("\t\tNormal: %d\n", players.mafiaNormal);
    printf("\t\tRole blocker: %d\n", players.mafiaRoleBlocker);

    printf("\tTown:\n");
    printf("\t\tNormal: %d\n", players.townNormal);
    printf("\t\tDoctor: %d\n", players.townDoctor);

    printf("\n");

    printf("Mafia wins %f%% of the time with lynch on Day 1\n", checkPossibilities(players, true) * 100);
    printf("Mafia wins %f%% of the time with no lynch on Day 1\n", checkPossibilities(players, false) * 100);

    return 0;
}

strager wrote:

nardi11011 wrote:

One thing I don't get: why did strager reveal his role instead of just saying "I was looking at the PM in the OP and was just wondering"?

Because I don't like lying.

Derekku Chan wrote:

strager, are you NOT fucking listening? There's no point in coding over 9000 lines of code. No lynch day 1 = Free kill for mafia.

Should we also NOT lynch day 2? Day 3?

Like SFG said, I'm starting to wonder about you, strager

strager wrote:

Saturos-fangirl wrote:

if we don't lynch today, the mafia get a free kill. im starting to really wonder about you, strager.

That may be true, but with eight players total and one Mafia you'll observe:

:!g++ -g mafia.cpp && ./a.out
Setup:
        Mafia:
                Normal: 1
                Role blocker: 0
        Town:
                Normal: 7
                Doctor: 0
Mafia wins 54.687500% of the time with lynch on Day 1
Mafia wins 45.714286% of the time with no lynch on Day 1

BagelBob wrote:

strager wrote:

nardi11011 wrote:

One thing I don't get: why did strager reveal his role instead of just saying "I was looking at the PM in the OP and was just wondering"?

Because I don't like lying.

I call BS, you meant to claim your roll. I was in the IRC with you before the game started. You could have sent your question as a PM to Suburu. You could have easily said that you were just curious. While lies generally do not help the town, the doctor role-claiming on the first day is worse.

BagelBob wrote:

Also, why are you ignoring these two posts?

BagelBob wrote:

From what I see in that post, I can only think that you're voting for Echo because Echo was attacking you. Is this correct? Is there anything else that I'm missing?

BagelBob wrote:

And again, Why are Derekku and 0_o above 50? Why are the rest of us below 50? Was that whole chart just BS?

BagelBob wrote:

But you didn't leave them out, and now you ought to explain what you said. Who mixed up a sequence of events and which sequence of events was it? What is it that you misunderstood? Do you need clarification on some matter?

BagelBob wrote:

This section is just a re-statement. I don't see any explanations, nor a need for any. Of course Echo thinks that you're a mafia. My first clue was the case, my second was the vote. I know you didn't think that Echo thought you were a vanilla townie. There was a whole section about whether or not you were fake-claiming as a townie, with Echo definitively of the mind that that would be a bad idea. You're saying that to make it look like Echo is lynching a townie. You should have at least said doctor, since that's what you're claiming to be.

BagelBob wrote:

A quick-lynch, such as the one you described, would generally be an obvious scum-tell.

BagelBob wrote:

Really, adam and Echo bandwagoning? Adam was the first one to vote for you, and Echo has been making the case.

strager wrote:

All I meant to say there that one or two of adam, Echo, nardi, and SFG were bandwagonning as a Mafia, not all of them.

BagelBob wrote:

your junk about random voting is this:

strager wrote:

In the first case I deduce one of these to be a Mafia: adam, SFG, nardi
In the third case I deduce these are probably NOT Mafia (because they didn't jump on the bandwagon): Derekku, 0_o

For the first case it seems as if adam's vote was random and SFG's vote was only somewhat random, as was nardi's. So my suspicions for the latter two are above my suspicions for adam. From that I really can't say much more though.

For the third case, 0_o seems to be really trying to defend me which either means he's deceitful (and will kill me at night) or genuinely trying to help the town. I'm not foolish enough to denounce the former but based on my observation above he may be a Townie more than a Mafia.
I really don't know what to think of Derekku because he hasn't been doing much from what I can see, really. He could be bad at analysis, not have information to discuss, or is smart enough not to talk because he may leak information. So ... not really sure.

BagelBob wrote:

In addition, did you mean that adam, SFG, and nardii's votes looked like bandwagon votes? You state that you think 0_o and Derekuu were not on the bandwagon, but then you throw junk about random voting. Adam's vote started out random, but he kept posting and saying that he was reading the thread and agreed with Echo's logic.

strager wrote:

BagelBob wrote:

You state that you think 0_o and Derekuu were not on the bandwagon, but then you throw junk about random voting.

Where is this "junk about random voting?"

BagelBob wrote:

Neither of those two pieces of code deals with our set-up. Why are you wasting time with things that don't apply? You can code all day, but when you get down to it, we aren't lynching someone at random.

strager wrote:

Also, some games only have one Mafia and some have three or more. (I know this specific game has two Mafia, but the game of Mafia doesn't have that ultimate rule. I was stating an example earlier.)

0_o wrote:

I think he was just pointing out that there are situations where not lynching would be in our best interests (like if there was one mafia), and he did these calculations to see if this also applied to our situation. And now we know it doesn't.

Chill out guys

Derekku Chan wrote:

strager wrote:

Also, some games only have one Mafia and some have three or more. (I know this specific game has two Mafia, but the game of Mafia doesn't have that ultimate rule. I was stating an example earlier.)

Then what's the fucking point of going through all of this? This game of mafia has TWO people as mafia. =|

EDIT: It should be common sense that it's a bad choice. =)