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Nightless Sane Mafia (Mafia Win.)

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0_o
2,155 posts
Joined December 2008
0_o

Lucidity wrote:

If you think about it, it's highly unlikely that both me and Echo are Mafia in this game as we were the two Mafia in Newbie Mafia 3 as well
If you know anything about probability then you'd know that since the two games are independent events, then their probabilities are also independent.

Lets say you roll a dice, and it comes up a six. Does this mean if you roll another one, it's less likely to be a six than any other number? Each number would still have an equal chance of of being rolled, regardless of what was rolled before.

Anyway, I actually don't think there is more than one mafia this game, personally I think it's too small for that.. but I guess we won't find out for sure till tomorrow =/
Lucidity
132 posts
Joined December 2008
Lucidity
Izit?

Let's look at it closely shall we?

The probability of Echo and I being Mafia in this game is:

1/[7C2] = 0.0476

The probability of Echo and I being Mafia in NM3 and NSM is:

1/[7C2] * 1/[9C2] = 0.00132

That's 36 times smaller ~_~
anonymous_old
0 posts
Here since the beginning
anonymous_old
I don't have time to post much.

Saturos-fangirl wrote:

it seems to me that if strager were mafia, instead of posting his findings and leaving them there he would be sharing them privately with his mafia friend or, if game contains only one mafia, keeping them to himself.
I know it's not a defense, but that's WIFOM.

Saturos-fangirl wrote:

dude why are you guys getting on strager's back? He's acting perfectly legit and you're all like "well i have this sneaking suspicion that hes mafia hurr"
?

Lucidity wrote:

If you think about it, it's highly unlikely that both me and Echo are Mafia in this game as we were the two Mafia in Newbie Mafia 3 as well...
Logical fallacy IIRC, as 0_o pointed out.

Lucidity wrote:

In the only unkown-role game that I've played with strager he was definitely NOT this keen on finding roles. He barely posted at all. I think he was a Cop in BM1? This is the total reverse O_o
I was a Cop, yes. The game was so large I didn't care about roles until it got much smaller, where the game is easier to work with.

Gotta go...
Yuukari-Banteki
1,534 posts
Joined June 2008
Yuukari-Banteki

0_o wrote:

Lucidity wrote:

If you think about it, it's highly unlikely that both me and Echo are Mafia in this game as we were the two Mafia in Newbie Mafia 3 as well
If you know anything about probability then you'd know that since the two games are independent events, then their probabilities are also independent.

Lets say you roll a dice, and it comes up a six. Does this mean if you roll another one, it's less likely to be a six than any other number? Each number would still have an equal chance of of being rolled, regardless of what was rolled before.

Anyway, I actually don't think there is more than one mafia this game, personally I think it's too small for that.. but I guess we won't find out for sure till tomorrow =/
game is seven people, right?

*checks*

yeah so its the same size as the newbie mafia games.
which, i might point out, had two mafia members each.
this is why i think this is a two-mafia game.

also@Echo, Lucidity, im not talking about you two "buddying" im talking about you both say strager is mafia based on "gut feelings" - maybe you thought you could bandwagon a vote on him? youre being pretty stupid about it.
0_o
2,155 posts
Joined December 2008
0_o

Lucidity wrote:

The probability of Echo and I being Mafia in NM3 and NSM is:

1/[7C2] * 1/[9C2] = 0.00132

That's 36 times smaller ~_~
That's only if you don't know the outcome of both games. The probability of rolling 2 sixes is (1*6) * (1*6) = 1/36, but if you are given that the first roll is a six, then the first roll has a probability of 1, making the equation 1 * 1/6 = 1/6.
Also by your logic, any pair of us has a 0.00132 chance of being mafia. The probability of you and Echo being mafia in the first game, followed by say, me and strager being mafia in the second game is exactly the same.
Lucidity
132 posts
Joined December 2008
Lucidity
Heh, you're quite right 0_o. The probability of Echo and I being Mafia partners in this game in isolation is the same as any other combination of 2 people. You're looking at P(B|A) when that is obviously equal to P(B) if A and B are independent events. You have to consider the purpose of the calculation though. You're calculating something different.

What I'm suggesting is that you look at a longer time horizon. The probability of Echo and I being partners in 2 games is equal to P(B)*P(A). There is no point in assuming Event A is given, because we're not just looking at this game. I'm saying that picking Echo and I in two consecutive games is less likely than being picked in one game. I don't know how else to explain this, but I am quite confident that my method is correct. I used to get firsts (A's or whatever you want to call it) in my undergrad for this basic probability theory.

I have no idea how LadySuburu assigns roles. It might not even be completely random so the point is moot.

Anyway, we're straying way off course here. The difference is that you're calculating the probability of the event in this game in isolation and I'm considering the event across two games. If you disagree I think we should leave it at that. We've wasted enough posts on it :P It is certainly not helping us catch the Mafia. Was fun though ;p
Derekku
COOL DUDE
7,270 posts
Joined March 2009
Derekku
Weren't there nine players in the newbie mafias? I'm too lazy to check X3

Regardless, I think there's two mafia =<
Lucidity
132 posts
Joined December 2008
Lucidity

Derekku Chan wrote:

Weren't there nine players in the newbie mafias? I'm too lazy to check X3

Regardless, I think there's two mafia =<
Yeah there were. Dunno why SFG thinks it's 7 O_o?

If there are 2 Mafia in this game and we lynch a townie today we're in LyLo in Day 2 (Assuming the Doctor (if one exists?) fails to protect). Unless she had a really short game planned I don't think LS would do this.

This means we either have only 1 Mafia or there is an abundance of Cops around to counter the bigger Mafia threat. If the Cop claims are all truthful then we probably do have 2 Mafia -.- But at least one of the "Cops" probably lied :/ And there's really no point in speculating about it, because we'll know what's going on when LS announces LyLo (or not) in Day 2.
0_o
2,155 posts
Joined December 2008
0_o
Just compare these two scenarios, listed are the mafias for each game (completely hypothetical)

a) M1: You, Echo | M2: You, Echo
b) M1: You, Echo | M2: adam, SFG

Do the calculations, the probabilities of a) and b) happening are exactly the same, no matter which pair you come up with for M2 in the b) scenario.

Going back to the dice roll example: if you roll a dice three times, the probability of rolling 4,1,2 (in order) is exactly the same as rolling 3,3,3 no matter which way you look at it. Seeing as our role assignments are random, this pretty much is a dice roll, so by your logic you are saying that if a die rolls a 3, then the die is less likely to roll a 3 on the next roll.

And yes this does matter, because you are using this "logic" to say you and Echo and very likely not to be Mafia, when you have statistically the exact same probability as any other pair.

What you are saying is listed in MafiaScum as Gambler's Fallacy.
Yuukari-Banteki
1,534 posts
Joined June 2008
Yuukari-Banteki

Lucidity wrote:

This means we either have only 1 Mafia or there is an abundance of Cops around to counter the bigger Mafia threat. If the Cop claims are all truthful then we probably do have 2 Mafia -.- But at least one of the "Cops" probably lied :/ And there's really no point in speculating about it, because we'll know what's going on when LS announces LyLo (or not) in Day 2.
if you thought one of us cops (assuming adam wasnt lying) was mafia, why aren't you voting for one of us? 1 cop for 1 mafia is a good trade.
Lucidity
132 posts
Joined December 2008
Lucidity
@0_o: As I said, you're quite right. :p I was referring to P(A)*P(B) which is smaller than P(B), but I didn't consider that it is equal for any alternative combination in this game too, so yeah it doesn't really mean much~ I'll concede that we're just as likely Mafia as anyone else~ (I haven't done this in 3 years ok!:p)

@SFG: Sure it's a good trade if we know that there is only 1 Cop. We don't. Both of you might be Cops. Until Day 2 we won't know how many Mafia there are either. The safest option to pursue if we followed this strategy would be to vote adam, as he is a Day cop and can then investigate before he is lynched, reveal his results and have it confirmed when he dies.

I am leaning towards you being a fake Cop though. You just seem too uninformed to be one :/ Examples are here and here.

Here (and following posts) she is fishing for info on what a Cop (Her role) can do. Why not ask about it in a PM instead of giving it to the Mafia in the thread? Unless she's Mafia looking for info?

In comparison adam has provided information about his role that LS later confirmed to be true. I don't know how he would know it otherwise.

Saturos-fangirl wrote:

Derekku Chan wrote:

Role Claim: Twilight Brownie

I'm delicious <3

wait this just struck me

brownie == cop?

or are you just joking around o0
Sorry I missed the link >: How does Brownie == cop?
0_o
2,155 posts
Joined December 2008
0_o

Lucidity wrote:

Saturos-fangirl wrote:

Derekku Chan wrote:

Role Claim: Twilight Brownie

I'm delicious <3

wait this just struck me

brownie == cop?

or are you just joking around o0
Sorry I missed the link >: How does Brownie == cop?
haha I'm glad you said something, because I didn't get this either :P Kids and their newfangled slang...
Echo
osu! Alumni
3,008 posts
Here since the beginning
Echo
@sfg:
strager's spent most of his posts speculating about the game setup rather than the game, and combined it with rolefishing. Although he did that last game(s?), there just seems to be more of it in this game than usual. strager's also speculating about what roles can do - eg. roles that gain powers, etc. with absolutely no proof at all, AND such things can never be proved while the game is still running. A wrong guess at the game setup can easily be disastrous for town. We're wasting precious time on such things.

In short:
  1. speculating about setup - scumtell
  2. rolefishing - scumtell
  3. misdirecting town attention - scumtell
Lucidity also raises some good points about you (sfg) - why do you seem to know absolutely nothing about your supposed cop role?

also less maths, more play plz.
anonymous_old
0 posts
Here since the beginning
anonymous_old
This map has been deleted on the request of its creator. It is no longer available.
0_o
2,155 posts
Joined December 2008
0_o
mod: Are the mafia allowed to PM eachother at twilight/during the day? (assuming there are more than one mafia)
LadySuburu
80 posts
Joined June 2008
Topic Starter
LadySuburu

0_o wrote:

mod: Are the mafia allowed to PM eachother at twilight/during the day? (assuming there are more than one mafia)
If there are two or more mafia, or any masonry groups, they will commune during twilight.
Yuukari-Banteki
1,534 posts
Joined June 2008
Yuukari-Banteki

Lucidity wrote:

@SFG: Sure it's a good trade if we know that there is only 1 Cop. We don't. Both of you might be Cops. Until Day 2 we won't know how many Mafia there are either. The safest option to pursue if we followed this strategy would be to vote adam, as he is a Day cop and can then investigate before he is lynched, reveal his results and have it confirmed when he dies.
greeeeaaat plan. lets go and kill off the cop to make sure hes a cop and hope the person he happened to scan was mafia. why didnt i think of that?

I am leaning towards you being a fake Cop though. You just seem too uninformed to be one :/ Examples are here and here.
D: of course im still uninformed i havent had a chance to investigate anyone yet! geez, i cant pull results out of my hat you know.
Well i suppose i could but they wouldnt be very helpful cus thatd be me making stuff up. thats more what i would be doing if i were mafia =.=;

Here (and following posts) she is fishing for info on what a Cop (Her role) can do. Why not ask about it in a PM instead of giving it to the Mafia in the thread? Unless she's Mafia looking for info?
sorry i figured while strager was having a q&a session i might as well join in. it hadnt occurred to me to pm.


Saturos-fangirl wrote:

wait this just struck me

brownie == cop?

or are you just joking around o0
Sorry I missed the link >: How does Brownie == cop?
Brownie or Brownjob is a slang term for cop in parts of the US and some fiction series', based on the brown uniforms they wear. I guess what is obvious to me is not necessarily obvious to others.
Yuukari-Banteki
1,534 posts
Joined June 2008
Yuukari-Banteki

Echo wrote:

@sfg:
strager's spent most of his posts speculating about the game setup rather than the game, and combined it with rolefishing. Although he did that last game(s?), there just seems to be more of it in this game than usual. strager's also speculating about what roles can do - eg. roles that gain powers, etc. with absolutely no proof at all, AND such things can never be proved while the game is still running. A wrong guess at the game setup can easily be disastrous for town. We're wasting precious time on such things.
yeah we're wasting our precious random vote session while we muddle around trying to figure out what to talk about =.=;


Lucidity also raises some good points about you (sfg) - why do you seem to know absolutely nothing about your supposed cop role?
obviously i was concerned because my cop role is different from adam's. specifically, adam is (supposedly) a Day Cop whereas I am a Twilight Cop. Thus the investigations happen at different times and i was confused by the different setup and thought adam was making things up. im still not sure he isnt but you two have persuaded me that he might be telling the truth.

as for the me not trying to take action, i hadnt exactly tracked down the part where Subi said i couldnt take action on T0 but i remembered seeing it, which is why i didnt attempt and couldnt prove offhand that i couldnt take action on T0.
Lucidity
132 posts
Joined December 2008
Lucidity

strager wrote:

Lucidity wrote:

The safest option to pursue if we followed this strategy would be to vote adam, as he is a Day cop and can then investigate before he is lynched, reveal his results and have it confirmed when he dies.
How is that safe? We only get one investigation from adam that way, and hopefully another from SFG if she makes it to D2. Maybe even none if adam is Naive or Paranoid (or lying about his role, but if that were true, he'd probably be the Mafia and we'd win anyway).

If both Cop claimers are kept alive, and at least one of them remains alive for D2 (likely; hopefully adam stays alive, as he can bring results before Twilight), we can get two or three investigations by D2. However, we don't know the sanities, but that can be found out if either or both Cops are killed by D3, LyLo.

I think it's better to try and keep the Cops alive for at least D2 so they can have as many investigations as they can. Thus, I'm not voting either of the two for now.
If you read my entire post and the post it was aimed at as a reply (SFG's suggestion) you'd understand it better maybe. Please reread :P Pay particular close attention to: "The safest option to pursue if we followed this strategy..."

strager wrote:

Lucidity wrote:

I am leaning towards you being a fake Cop though. You just seem too uninformed to be one :/ Examples are here and here.
Maybe so, but I'm giving SFG the benefit of the doubt here, for today. Again, the Cops would be better alive D2 than dead.
:\ She keeps defending you. You keep defending her. Get a room guys ;p

strager wrote:

Lucidity wrote:

Here (and following posts) she is fishing for info on what a Cop (Her role) can do. Why not ask about it in a PM instead of giving it to the Mafia in the thread? Unless she's Mafia looking for info?
I did the same thing, to a greater degree, even.
Horrid defence this time though! You did the same thing and admitted that it was to the detriment of the town. Why does it make it all better if she does it? Furthermore you were trying to find out about roles in general. SFG was fishing for info on the Cop role. The role she claims to be. A role she can safely enquire about via PM without giving the Mafia valuable information. That's not on.


strager wrote:

Echo wrote:

A wrong guess at the game setup can easily be disastrous for town. We're wasting precious time on such things.
I agree, which is why I stopped myself. I don't think it's THAT much of a risk that we would lose because of a guess/hunch/whatever, as we have at least three Days to catch the Mafia (assuming there's only one).
Justifying "guessing" with more guessing? That's a nono. We should try to work with what we've been given as much as possible. Any guesses should not be given TOO much weight.

edit: Ninja'd D:
0_o
2,155 posts
Joined December 2008
0_o
Everyone who has role claimed so far has had a special prefix or other change to it (Day Cop, Twilight Townie, Twilight Brownie (?)), except for SFG, who just said she was a "cop". Since adam says he's a Day Cop, I would think the cops would either be told they are a Twilight or Day cop. Why didn't SFG specify one of these in her initial role claim? I think it's quite possible SFG made an early claim just to appear confident in her role, but didn't have the knowledge of the existence of Twilight/Day cops at the time

vote SFG
0_o
2,155 posts
Joined December 2008
0_o
Unofficial Vote Count

Derekku - 1 (adam)
strager - 1 (Echo)
Lucidity - 1 (SFG)
SFG - 1 (0_o)
Yuukari-Banteki
1,534 posts
Joined June 2008
Yuukari-Banteki

0_o wrote:

Everyone who has role claimed so far has had a special prefix or other change to it (Day Cop, Twilight Townie, Twilight Brownie (?)), except for SFG, who just said she was a "cop". Since adam says he's a Day Cop, I would think the cops would either be told they are a Twilight or Day cop. Why didn't SFG specify one of these in her initial role claim? I think it's quite possible SFG made an early claim just to appear confident in her role, but didn't have the knowledge of the existence of Twilight/Day cops at the time

SFG wrote:

obviously i was concerned because my cop role is different from adam's. specifically, adam is (supposedly) a Day Cop whereas I am a Twilight Cop.
fail
Lucidity
132 posts
Joined December 2008
Lucidity

Saturos-fangirl wrote:

Lucidity wrote:

@SFG: Sure it's a good trade if we know that there is only 1 Cop. We don't. Both of you might be Cops. Until Day 2 we won't know how many Mafia there are either. The safest option to pursue if we followed this strategy would be to vote adam, as he is a Day cop and can then investigate before he is lynched, reveal his results and have it confirmed when he dies.
greeeeaaat plan. lets go and kill off the cop to make sure hes a cop and hope the person he happened to scan was mafia. why didnt i think of that?
You did think of that? You're the one who suggested the trade here? I'm the one who said it's only a good plan in a setup where the roles are known? Yeah, I elaborated on a strat to follow if we did go this route, but I didn't suggest we use it and I didn't vote adam. I was simply sharing some thoughts.

Saturos-fangirl wrote:

I am leaning towards you being a fake Cop though. You just seem too uninformed to be one :/ Examples are here and here.
D: of course im still uninformed i havent had a chance to investigate anyone yet! geez, i cant pull results out of my hat you know.
Well i suppose i could but they wouldnt be very helpful cus thatd be me making stuff up. thats more what i would be doing if i were mafia =.=;
You misunderstood. You are uninformed about your role, the very thing that you should know most about. I find this highly suspicious and the fact that you asked about it in the thread is even more suspicious :/

Saturos-fangirl wrote:

Here (and following posts) she is fishing for info on what a Cop (Her role) can do. Why not ask about it in a PM instead of giving it to the Mafia in the thread? Unless she's Mafia looking for info?
sorry i figured while strager was having a q&a session i might as well join in. it hadnt occurred to me to pm.
Hmmm.


Saturos-fangirl wrote:

Brownie or Brownjob is a slang term for cop in parts of the US and some fiction series', based on the brown uniforms they wear. I guess what is obvious to me is not necessarily obvious to others.
Yeah...Police officers here wear blue. (Actually it depends on what type of cop but ya. No brown)

SFG has taken strager's spot and shot to the top of my suspect list. The fact that she may be a Cop makes it hard to vote for her though :/
Lucidity
132 posts
Joined December 2008
Lucidity

Saturos-fangirl wrote:

0_o wrote:

Everyone who has role claimed so far has had a special prefix or other change to it (Day Cop, Twilight Townie, Twilight Brownie (?)), except for SFG, who just said she was a "cop". Since adam says he's a Day Cop, I would think the cops would either be told they are a Twilight or Day cop. Why didn't SFG specify one of these in her initial role claim? I think it's quite possible SFG made an early claim just to appear confident in her role, but didn't have the knowledge of the existence of Twilight/Day cops at the time

SFG wrote:

obviously i was concerned because my cop role is different from adam's. specifically, adam is (supposedly) a Day Cop whereas I am a Twilight Cop.
fail
Ninja'd again :O

Here's your initial claim:
oh right i want this discussion started fast so


Claim: Cop
And your second claim:
oh i actually meant to claim cop
You only mentioned "Twilight Cop" now on page 11. After everyone claimed their special roles. The mention of "Twilight Cop" was also necessary to differentiate between Day Cop and your supposed role in that quote. All in all, not a very strong defence from your side :/

Explain? :/
0_o
2,155 posts
Joined December 2008
0_o

Saturos-fangirl wrote:

fail

0_o wrote:

Why didn't SFG specify one of these in her initial role claim?
Of course you know now that you should be a twilight cop, but why didn't you say so when you first claimed? If adam was told he's a day cop, you should have been told you were a twilight cop, and if you were you would have specifically said so when you first claimed. The fact that you were so suspicious of adam's claim of Day Cop also supports this.
Yuukari-Banteki
1,534 posts
Joined June 2008
Yuukari-Banteki

0_o wrote:

Of course you know now that you should be a twilight cop, but why didn't you say so when you first claimed? If adam was told he's a day cop, you should have been told you were a twilight cop, and if you were you would have specifically said so when you first claimed. The fact that you were so suspicious of adam's claim of Day Cop also supports this.
i thought it was obvious that a cop in a nightless game would act in twilight rather than at night =.= obviously i was horribly mistaken
anonymous_old
0 posts
Here since the beginning
anonymous_old

Lucidity wrote:

strager wrote:

Lucidity wrote:

The safest option to pursue if we followed this strategy would be to vote adam, as he is a Day cop and can then investigate before he is lynched, reveal his results and have it confirmed when he dies.
How is that safe? We only get one investigation from adam that way, and hopefully another from SFG if she makes it to D2. Maybe even none if adam is Naive or Paranoid (or lying about his role, but if that were true, he'd probably be the Mafia and we'd win anyway).

If both Cop claimers are kept alive, and at least one of them remains alive for D2 (likely; hopefully adam stays alive, as he can bring results before Twilight), we can get two or three investigations by D2. However, we don't know the sanities, but that can be found out if either or both Cops are killed by D3, LyLo.

I think it's better to try and keep the Cops alive for at least D2 so they can have as many investigations as they can. Thus, I'm not voting either of the two for now.
If you read my entire post and the post it was aimed at as a reply (SFG's suggestion) you'd understand it better maybe. Please reread :P Pay particular close attention to: "The safest option to pursue if we followed this strategy..."
Yeah, I reread it and now I understand what you were saying. Still, I think my points apply (as alternative options).

Lucidity wrote:

strager wrote:

Lucidity wrote:

I am leaning towards you being a fake Cop though. You just seem too uninformed to be one :/ Examples are here and here.
Maybe so, but I'm giving SFG the benefit of the doubt here, for today. Again, the Cops would be better alive D2 than dead.
:\ She keeps defending you. You keep defending her. Get a room guys ;p
I'm defending her (really, I'm just saying I'm not voting for her; she's not cleared any more than anyone else) because she claimed Cop. Only she and LS and some lucky spectators know if there's truth in the claim, but I don't want to (help) make the mistake of lynching a Cop.

Lucidity wrote:

strager wrote:

Lucidity wrote:

Here (and following posts) she is fishing for info on what a Cop (Her role) can do. Why not ask about it in a PM instead of giving it to the Mafia in the thread? Unless she's Mafia looking for info?
I did the same thing, to a greater degree, even.
Horrid defence this time though! You did the same thing and admitted that it was to the detriment of the town. Why does it make it all better if she does it?
How does it make it worse, as you imply in your original post I quote?

Lucidity wrote:

Furthermore you were trying to find out about roles in general. SFG was fishing for info on the Cop role. The role she claims to be. A role she can safely enquire about via PM without giving the Mafia valuable information. That's not on.
Orly?
viewtopic.php?p=167122#p167122
viewtopic.php?p=166987#p166987
viewtopic.php?p=167144#p167144
viewtopic.php?p=167158#p167158

Then I kinda stop (viewtopic.php?p=167192#p167192).

Lucidity wrote:

strager wrote:

Echo wrote:

A wrong guess at the game setup can easily be disastrous for town. We're wasting precious time on such things.
I agree, which is why I stopped myself. I don't think it's THAT much of a risk that we would lose because of a guess/hunch/whatever, as we have at least three Days to catch the Mafia (assuming there's only one).
Justifying "guessing" with more guessing? That's a nono. We should try to work with what we've been given as much as possible. Any guesses should not be given TOO much weight.
Wha? I agree with your last sentence, which is why I said "I don't think it's THAT much of a risk that we would lose because of a guess/hunch/whatever [...]."

Donner, bbl.
Echo
osu! Alumni
3,008 posts
Here since the beginning
Echo
edit: sniped

That's not true - if your role had been stated as "Night Cop" you'd've said you were "Night Cop"; I don't see why you wouldn't have said "Twilight Cop" if your role had said so.

Even though this is setup speculation, I'm sure everyone here would agree 3 cops doesn't sound quite right :P
Lucidity
132 posts
Joined December 2008
Lucidity
edit: Post aimed at strager.

Saa~ Did you ONLY ask about Cops? Sure the majority was focused on it, but it wasn't an exclusive interest. I'm going to bed now, so I'm not going to reread the thread again to find counter examples -.-

You're missing the point though. SFG claimed to be a Cop. You didn't. She could PM LadySuburu to her heart's content and find out everything she possibly wanted. Her role PM would probably have specified most of the things she wanted to know anyway. The point is it's suspicious of a Cop to be so clueless~Throwing around exactly how her role works in the thread is also very risky...
0_o
2,155 posts
Joined December 2008
0_o

Echo wrote:

Even though this is setup speculation, I'm sure everyone here would agree 3 cops doesn't sound quite right :P
Actually I think strager's initial "claim" was a joke (in this post he does not say he's a cop)
I just realized this as well, I even had an entire post about how strager and SFG were the mafia, then I read that and now it's just SFG :P
Echo
osu! Alumni
3,008 posts
Here since the beginning
Echo
Wait so only adam and SFG officially claimed cop now?

Can I remind you that Night 0 (or Twilight in this case) is a part of the game - it's a chance to discuss in advance? I won't accept anyone saying that they were "just joking around" in T0.
anonymous_old
0 posts
Here since the beginning
anonymous_old
About my claim, I thought I clarified here: viewtopic.php?p=167805#p167805

strager wrote:

http://osu.ppy.sh/forum/viewtopic.php?p=166463#p166463
T'was a joke.
I was going with the "re-roleclaim if you're serious" thing by Derekku, which everyone else followed. (Hmm, what did Echo call that again?)

Lucidity wrote:

Saa~ Did you ONLY ask about Cops? Sure the majority was focused on it, but it wasn't an exclusive interest. I'm going to bed now, so I'm not going to reread the thread again to find counter examples -.-
I don't see how that matters. If SFG asked a question here about another role, would that change your mind about pointing SFG's question out? No.

Lucidity wrote:

You're missing the point though. SFG claimed to be a Cop. You didn't. She could PM LadySuburu to her heart's content and find out everything she possibly wanted. Her role PM would probably have specified most of the things she wanted to know anyway. The point is it's suspicious of a Cop to be so clueless~Throwing around exactly how her role works in the thread is also very risky...
It's risky, but there are many possibilities, including:
  1. She was fitting in with the questions I was asking.
  2. She didn't realize she was making her question public and possibly helping the Mafia.
  3. She did realize she was making her question public and was trying to help the Town (and perhaps adam, though I don't think the question she asked applies to him).
  4. She was trying to expand upon my previous question about investigating dead people. (Possible way to find her sanity or land a useful investigation.)
SFG posted that the first of these was the case. I'm inclined to believe the last point was part of asking, too, though.

Wow, I just realized I missed a few posts. /me reads.

Nothing to comment on, though I'm slightly less believing SFG now, to the point where I'm not not going to vote for her today. Still, I'd like to keep a claimed Cop alive until D2.
Yuukari-Banteki
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Echo wrote:

Wait so only adam and SFG officially claimed cop now?

Can I remind you that Night 0 (or Twilight in this case) is a part of the game - it's a chance to discuss in advance? I won't accept anyone saying that they were "just joking around" in T0.
i think he was trying to start discussion, as were most of us. its super hard to scumhunt people if theres no discussion going on

edit: fix'd
anonymous_old
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Saturos-fangirl wrote:

its super hard to scumpaint people if theres no discussion going on
Is there a need to scumpaint if someone is already painted? Unless you're the Mafia, of course.
Yuukari-Banteki
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Yuukari-Banteki

strager wrote:

Saturos-fangirl wrote:

its super hard to scumpaint people if theres no discussion going on
Is there a need to scumpaint if someone is already painted? Unless you're the Mafia, of course.
oh whoops thats supposed to say scumhunt sry
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Saturos-fangirl wrote:

strager wrote:

Saturos-fangirl wrote:

its super hard to scumpaint people if theres no discussion going on
Is there a need to scumpaint if someone is already painted? Unless you're the Mafia, of course.
oh whoops thats supposed to say scumhunt sry
You've been saying 'scumpaint' a while. Maybe you've been playing and watching Pasonia play CM too long?
Yuukari-Banteki
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Yuukari-Banteki

strager wrote:

Saturos-fangirl wrote:

You've been saying 'scumpaint' a while. Maybe you've been playing and watching Pasonia play CM too long?
..? a while? thats the first time ive mentioned it and accidental at that
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Saturos-fangirl wrote:

strager wrote:

Saturos-fangirl wrote:

You've been saying 'scumpaint' a while. Maybe you've been playing and watching Pasonia play CM too long?
..? a while? thats the first time ive mentioned it and accidental at that
My bad, you only said it once before: viewtopic.php?p=166970#p166970

Saturos-fangirl wrote:

Lucidity, Echo, adam, i want you guys to start talking so i can scumpaint people
Yuukari-Banteki
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Yuukari-Banteki

strager wrote:

My bad, you only said it once before: viewtopic.php?p=166970#p166970

Saturos-fangirl wrote:

Lucidity, Echo, adam, i want you guys to start talking so i can scumpaint people

k imma go bang my head against a wall for a while and hopefully knock some intelligence back into it....
Echo
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strager, why are you feeding SFG a defense?
Yuukari-Banteki
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Echo wrote:

strager, why are you feeding SFG a defense?
its called protecting the cops cus they can investigate people and you cant...unless theres something you arent telling us
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Echo wrote:

strager, why are you feeding SFG a defense?
Again, I don't want adam or SFG to be killed D1/N1 so we can have enough investigations. We can lynch adam if he gets a flipped vote D2, find his sanity, and win the game, for example. (If adam is the Mafia, we win anyway.)

I would be doing the same for adam, but he's not talking much or being attacked.
Echo
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There's no need to defend possible cops? There wasn't any danger - I'm not voting them, I'm just pointing out possible inconsistencies. You guys seem way too jumpy.

Let me ask you a question then - who do you think we should lynch today then?
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Echo wrote:

Let me ask you a question then - who do you think we should lynch today then?
No idea, hence me not having a vote yet. No one stands out really.
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Oh, shit.

I dunno. @_@

Mod: I'd like an official vote count, please.
anonymous_old
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And it's four to lynch, right? We'd need at least two votes on one person, otherwise it's a no-lynch. In fact, a no-lynch may be useful for the Cops to investigate, but it gives the Mafia a chance to hit both if there is no Doctor around (which is bad bad bad).
Echo
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no lynch on odd numbers is bad, both statistically (which you definitely know) and in terms of scumhunting since votes and reasons for voting reveal much about people

why would you even suggest a no lynch then negate that suggestion by saying it's bad?
0_o
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0_o
adam, have you made an investigation yet? If you have now's the time to say something...
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Echo wrote:

why would you even suggest a no lynch then negate that suggestion by saying it's bad?
I'm saying a no-lynch will happen if two votes aren't on one person. See what happened in BM1.

I agree with 0_o, because we can test sanities that way. That is, lynch the person who adam investigates and compare it with the role of the lynched person. That will reduce it down to two possible sanities.
Yuukari-Banteki
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Yuukari-Banteki
im gonna lol if adam doesnt say anything before deadline

also vote strager

see, now if nothing happens we still lynch someone ^_^
0_o
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0_o
How come everyone always wants to knock off strager first day, he was first one lynched in both M3 and M4 >_>
Yuukari-Banteki
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i just think we have better chances if we lynch today even if its a random lynch. see Echo's post
Echo
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Now you're trying to frame me if strager turns out innocent :/
Yuukari-Banteki
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Echo wrote:

Now you're trying to frame me if strager turns out innocent :/
uh hello? what i said had nothing to do with you and everything to do with probability/good general strategy. you just happened to be the person to mention it
anonymous_old
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I'm kinda stuck between Echo, Lucidity, and SFG now.

Echo seems pretty lax, like in BM1 and M3, but unlike in M2. In BM1 and M3 he was a Mafia (right? I think), and in M2 he was the Cop. Also, there's that logic about helping the Mafia with information, but even if I agree with him, he did bring that point up in BM1, and I'm not sure if he did M2 (or if the situation called for it). Meta-playing is kinda weak as an argument, though.

Lucidity doesn't (to me) have sense in his reasons for arguing his points. (That's poorly worded; hope you get the meaning.) He could be trying to scumpaint, trying to do something to help the town, or do something to seem to help the town.

SFG's been acting weird today (in Earth days). Pretty suspicious. Still, I don't want to regret a lynch of a Cop.

On the others:

0_o, uh, I forget. Oh, right, he claimed Twilight Townie. No idea. In a similar situation as Derekku. That is, undecided.

adam needs to speak a bit more, especially of his investigation results.

Derekku had a weird claim, and it's pretty wild. He could be claiming such an eccentric role to alleviate suspicion. Of course, he could be telling the truth, too. WIFOM, I think? Nothing for or against him I think.

With that, I'll vote: Lucidity, awaiting adam's investigation results.
Derekku
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ffffffff adam was just browsing this forum GET BACK HERE ADAM D:

*also awaiting his results before making a vote*
adam2046
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adam2046
Go to hell.
Make your own decisions.
Echo
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strager wrote:

Lucidity doesn't (to me) have sense in his reasons for arguing his points. (That's poorly worded; hope you get the meaning.)
I hope I'm not the only one who sees the irony in this statement.

Derekku Chan wrote:

*also awaiting his results before making a vote*
I thought you claimed townie (brownie) :/
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Wow.
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Echo wrote:

Derekku Chan wrote:

*also awaiting his results before making a vote*
I thought you claimed townie (brownie) :/
Uhh yes? What about it?

adam2046 wrote:

Make your own decisions.
Okay then, I will. Vote: adam2046. You're supposed to be helping the town, but you're just making yourself more suspicious and not being useful.
Last edited by Derekku , edited 1 time in total.
adam2046
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adam2046
That's some great work there.
Let's not kill SFG tonight.
0_o
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0_o

adam2046 wrote:

That's some great work there.
Let's not kill SFG tonight.
I'll take this to mean you investigated her?

unvote
anonymous_old
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adam2046 wrote:

Let's not kill SFG tonight.
Why not? Innocent result?

I really don't see why you're withholding information. I really don't want a Cop claim to be lynched.
adam2046
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adam2046
Then don't lynch me, duh.
Edit: On a side note I've had FOS: strager almost all game.
Yuukari-Banteki
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Yuukari-Banteki
unvote
vote adam
0_o
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0_o

Saturos-fangirl wrote:

unvote
vote adam
um

what

vote Lucidity because I don't know when the deadline is and if it's soon I don't want adam lynched
adam2046
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I think it's plain to see.
Echo
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Derekku Chan wrote:

Echo wrote:

Derekku Chan wrote:

*also awaiting his results before making a vote*
I thought you claimed townie (brownie) :/
Uhh yes? What about it?
What results?
adam2046
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adam2046
My results.
0_o
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0_o
^
"his results" = "adam's results"
Derekku claimed vanilla

EDIT: ninjaaa'd
Derekku
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Okay, I'm going to throw an idea out here and it'll probably get shot down.

[theory]
There are two mafia in this game. They are adam and SFG. They both claimed cop to lessen suspicion on themselves. Cops can be crucial to this game, and so usually people won't vote for them. But after a couple of days and we've "learned their sanities" (aka lies), we completely trust them, but then everyone else gets lynched and they (the mafia) win.[/theory]

I think that the best action today would be to lynch one of them and see what their role is. Truthfully, I don't even think that it's worth saving a "cop" until we've seen their results. By the time we've figured out their sanities, it's too late (like I said above). Truthfully, cops shouldn't even role claim unless they have results and are sure of them (or are mafia being crafty). This just brings more suspicious onto them.

Okay I'm tired of thinking for tonight so I'll stop here. *puts on flame shield*
Derekku
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Echo wrote:

What results?
Uhhh, I'm a townie, I don't HAVE any results ._.
adam2046
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adam2046
I don't like your idea...why would we kill me?
As a note, I try to avoid fake claiming when I'm mafia especially first day since you know, THERE COULD BE OTHER COPS.
I think it'd be the stupidest strategy ever. (exceptfor some people)
Yuukari-Banteki
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Yuukari-Banteki

Derekku Chan wrote:

Okay, I'm going to throw an idea out here and it'll probably get shot down.

[theory]
There are two mafia in this game. They are adam and SFG. They both claimed cop to lessen suspicion on themselves. Cops can be crucial to this game, and so usually people won't vote for them. But after a couple of days and we've "learned their sanities" (aka lies), we completely trust them, but then everyone else gets lynched and they (the mafia) win.[/theory]

I think that the best action today would be to lynch one of them and see what their role is. Truthfully, I don't even think that it's worth saving a "cop" until we've seen their results. By the time we've figured out their sanities, it's too late (like I said above). Truthfully, cops shouldn't even role claim unless they have results and are sure of them (or are mafia being crafty). This just brings more suspicious onto them.

Okay I'm tired of thinking for tonight so I'll stop here. *puts on flame shield*
that is the stupidest idea ive ever heard. that makes you sound like mafia in my eyes. "Hey guyz lets kill the people that claim cop so they dont investigate me thats a great idea~ ^_^"
Yuukari-Banteki
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Yuukari-Banteki

adam2046 wrote:

I don't like your idea...why would we kill me?
As a note, I try to avoid fake claiming when I'm mafia especially first day since you know, THERE COULD BE OTHER COPS.

THERE COULD BE OTHER COPS.
like me maybe?
0_o
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0_o
GAME IS ENDING REALLY SOON SO VOTE FOR WHO YOU WANT LYNCHED NOW
Derekku
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@adam/SFG Hey, it's better than nothing.

@SFG Feel free to scan me, but you'll just be wasting your time.
adam2046
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Vote: strager
Derekku
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LS: i can has vote count?
0_o
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0_o
mod: a Vote Count would be lovely right now...

EDIT: NINJA'D AGAIN COME ON DEREKKU
Derekku
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Yuukari-Banteki
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ah heck with it i give up on this game. you guys wont lynch me no matter what i do, cus everyone is such a bad player that my acting scummy isnt even noticable amongst the noobiness

claim: jester

just nightkill me so i can concentrate on my WW game plz
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SFG's trying not to get lynched by claiming Jester? Hmm, could be a claim by the Mafia. I have no idea. WIFOM?
Yuukari-Banteki
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Yuukari-Banteki
oh and just a note, dont expect me to post in this thread again. do w/e you will with me or my corpse and stuff.
LadySuburu
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LadySuburu
Okay, I have a few bits of info to share at the moment.

1. Due to a slight error on my part, I am resending some role PMs. I did not specify something specifically in some of them, and in another I actually sent the wrong role. If you recieve a PM, you know who you are.

2. Please avoid talking about this game outside the thread. Also remember that any conversation outside MAY be fake as well, in the event some discussion does happen. But please, remember this thread only.
Derekku
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ffffffffffff sfg wifom stop it my brain is hurting

@strager: Like I've said before, the problem I have with cops with sanities in short games is that they have to be figured out before we can make anything of it. I mean yeah it still might be useful and there might only be one mafia, but who knows ._.
0_o
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0_o
OK here's my vote count, everyone make sure your vote is correct here

Lucidity (2) - strager, 0_o Will be lynched if tie remains (I think)
strager (2) - Echo, adam
adam (2) - Derekku, SFG

Not Voting - Lucidity

EDIT: Also, mafia: Kill SFG tonight, since if she doesn't die we will probably lynch her tomorrow, and none of us want a shared win ^_^
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strager wrote:

Right, so if a Cop is killed before D3, we know their sanity. No need to self-invstigate and waste a Day.
*facefloor* Oh God wow am I that stupid? I completely forgot that a cop can investigate themselves arghhh sorry. (But oh wait adam investigated SFG first which does NOTHING for me)
0_o
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0_o
Seeing as SFG is no longer claiming cop, I think it's safe to say that adam is sane since he is the only claimed cop now..

EDIT: also SFG, claiming a role that's a target for night kills probably isn't the best jester strategy :P
Last edited by 0_o , edited 1 time in total.
Derekku
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0_o wrote:

Seeing as SFG is no longer claiming cop, I think it's safe to say that adam is sane since he is the only claimed cop now..
Unless she really is just pulling a shitty move and is really mafia ugh so confusing.
LadySuburu
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LadySuburu
Well, one of my previous posts got vanished, but deadline is extended to 7:15 AM tomorrow morning.

Also, trying to fix stuff and finish up, so I can't give a votecount atm. Please do an unofficial votecount or check for yourself at the moment. I have no time currently, I'm sorry.
Yuukari-Banteki
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geez this is just the kind of crazy role Subi would get


welp im not a jester anymore. guess he didnt want me to give up. sooooo....well my new role HAS to be town-known for it to work so i HAVE to claim it.

Claim: Pressured doctor

i can protect people at twilight, but only if at least half of the town pm's me during twilight telling me who to protect. I have to forward the pm's to LadySuburu so he can confirm it.

the pm must only contain the person i am to protect, and can only be sent once per person, so think carefully x_x if two of you (im the third for the majority atm) agree is the only time i can protect someone. if i get more than that i have to follow the majority.

information is public because i have no choice dont flame me for it plz
Derekku
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Saturos-fangirl wrote:

geez this is just the kind of crazy role Subi would get


welp im not a jester anymore. guess he didnt want me to give up. sooooo....well my new role HAS to be town-known for it to work so i HAVE to claim it.

Claim: Pressured doctor

i can protect people at twilight, but only if at least half of the town pm's me during twilight telling me who to protect. I have to forward the pm's to LadySuburu so he can confirm it.

the pm must only contain the person i am to protect, and can only be sent once per person, so think carefully x_x if two of you (im the third for the majority atm) agree is the only time i can protect someone. if i get more than that i have to follow the majority.

information is public because i have no choice dont flame me for it plz
what



the fuck
0_o
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0_o
That's why we have to lynch her tomorrow. If she isn't mafia, the mafia will NK her because they don't want a jester win any more than we do. If she survives the night, that tells us that the mafia didn't want to kill her, and the only reason that would happen is if she is a mafia member.

EDIT: disregard all of this
Last edited by 0_o , edited 1 time in total.
adam2046
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So anyway.
Unvote
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