Lucidity wrote:

I have to agree with Echo about strager. Rolefishing benefits the Mafia the most. Apparently Echo explained this to him in BM1 and he still persisted in doing it in this game. After Echo pointed it out to him again he brushed it off and continued.

Lucidity wrote:

Not to mention the inconsistency in his post pointed out by 0_o. Did he type the post and then decided to throw in an "I agree" to make sure he doesn't ruffle too many feathers? He might have just thought about the idea while typing the post and by the end of it realised that Echo was making sense. The problem with this theory is that he tried to make a (bad) excuse for his inconsistency in his next post. (Which means he did not have an epiphany halfway through the post) He also carries on throwing information out into the public domain, completely disregarding Echo's warning, which he claims to understand.

strager wrote:

Echo wrote:

What good is it to the town if we know that there is, for example, a doctor or a cop? But if the mafia know that they exist, they can start looking for tells because they *know* the role exists. When they don't know the role exists, they'll need to resort to guessing, which increases the chances of survival of the PRs.

I still don't see how that works, but you're entitled to your own logic and I don't have to agree, really. However, you did say the same thing in BM1, where you were a Mafia, so I'm kind of suspicious about that.

Echo wrote:

Also rolefishing is a scumtell because there is no benefit for town to know who has what role (unless you're the doctor and trying to find the cop(s) or something), whereas the mafia will love to know who has what role so they can plan the NKs

I wouldn't say I'm rolefishing. I'm not asking people to claim. I'm just looking at what information we have from claims to see what's possible and what is the better action to take given this information. For example, see my post about who/how the Cops should investigate.

I do have to agree that rolefishing is probably suspicious, though I haven't seen it applied in a game I've played/followed (unless I'm that blind), so I can't say if it's reliable. I'm sure you've the experience, and it does sound like a possible tell, so that's why I'm agreeing on this point.

Lucidity wrote:

(Hopefully?) he has stopped now, by acknowledging Echo for the second time.

Lucidity wrote:

strager, you're on the top of my suspicion list at the moment for trying to get all the information you possibly can into the open. The best course of action is surely to trust that the aux roles do their jobs to the best of their ability with the information that they've managed to obtain. If you throw all roles into the open and devise (incomplete) strategies publicly it only benefits the Mafia. They will know exactly what to do in order to stop the strategy from working, wouldn't they? The only time you should try to implement a strategy publicly is if it is guaranteed to work, no matter what the Mafia do.

Lucidity wrote:

Finally, what is the point of speculating about possible roles? Especially on Day 1. LS has admitted that she uses basic rules, which might apply to roles too. But any guesswork is just as bad (or worse) as not guessing at all. If your guess is wrong (and let's face it. you have nothing to base your guesses on yet) then it is to the detriment to the town. Could you explain how guessing roles and devising (public) strategies around them benefits the Town?

OP wrote:

Night never comes. There's only twilight. This is also a precursor to BM2. (Night actions take place during twilight, and during twilight you can post.)

Night actions take place during twilight

Saturos-fangirl wrote:

and about the daycop thing, adam, i guess you're bad at being mafia cus you didn't read the opening post well enough.

OP wrote:

Night never comes. There's only twilight. This is also a precursor to BM2. (Night actions take place during twilight, and during twilight you can post.)

Night actions take place during twilight

good job

vote adam

Saturos-fangirl wrote:

yeah but Cop is a night-based role

strager wrote:

Saturos-fangirl wrote:

yeah but Cop is a night-based role

I don't think a Day Cop is.

strager wrote:

http://osu.ppy.sh/forum/viewtopic.php?p=166470#p166470
WIFOM: Trying to "disprove" the possibility of him (Derekku) being a Sibling by saying "jkjk" ?

strager wrote:

http://osu.ppy.sh/forum/viewtopic.php?p=166996#p166996
Derekku continues with his running joke, and it's kinda annoying. Not sure if it's meant as a distraction or something, or just to add fun to the game (ineffectively here).

strager wrote:

http://osu.ppy.sh/forum/viewtopic.php?p=167008#p167008
viewtopic.php?p=167082#p167082
I'm sure Derekku's role differs SOMEHOW from 0_o's. One of them may be lying, but both are kinda believable. I don't know LS enough to know if she'd add a silly role like Twilight Brownie though.

strager wrote:

http://osu.ppy.sh/forum/viewtopic.php?p=167091#p167091
Here, I seemed to have misread Derekku's post. Still, the above (thing???) applies.

Derekku Chan wrote:

strager wrote:

http://osu.ppy.sh/forum/viewtopic.php?p=166996#p166996
Derekku continues with his running joke, and it's kinda annoying. Not sure if it's meant as a distraction or something, or just to add fun to the game (ineffectively here).

The random vote random vote random vote random vote thing gets a little boring after a while, so I tried to have a little fun with my role. Why didn't you attack anyone else for their jokes and fun? FOS strag-*gets shot* I didn't mean it as a distraction, and if anyone thought it was, then I'm sorry for having fun

Derekku Chan wrote:

strager wrote:

http://osu.ppy.sh/forum/viewtopic.php?p=167091#p167091
Here, I seemed to have misread Derekku's post. Still, the above (thing???) applies.

fffffffffffff I knew you'd bring this up again.

0_o wrote:

Also SFG you can't do a serious vote then go "oh ok never mind, it's a random vote now". It doesn't work that way

Derekku Chan wrote:

Derekku Chan wrote:

strager wrote:

http://osu.ppy.sh/forum/viewtopic.php?p=167091#p167091
Here, I seemed to have misread Derekku's post. Still, the above (thing???) applies.
fffffffffffff I knew you'd bring this up again.

Again

Just like 0_o said, we know how you act. You're strager x3

Saturos-fangirl wrote:

it seems to me that if strager were mafia, instead of posting his findings and leaving them there he would be sharing them privately with his mafia friend or, if game contains only one mafia, keeping them to himself.

Saturos-fangirl wrote:

also
unvote
vote Lucidity

>w< talk!

Lucidity wrote:

If you think about it, it's highly unlikely that both me and Echo are Mafia in this game as we were the two Mafia in Newbie Mafia 3 as well

Saturos-fangirl wrote:

it seems to me that if strager were mafia, instead of posting his findings and leaving them there he would be sharing them privately with his mafia friend or, if game contains only one mafia, keeping them to himself.

Saturos-fangirl wrote:

dude why are you guys getting on strager's back? He's acting perfectly legit and you're all like "well i have this sneaking suspicion that hes mafia hurr"

Lucidity wrote:

If you think about it, it's highly unlikely that both me and Echo are Mafia in this game as we were the two Mafia in Newbie Mafia 3 as well...

Lucidity wrote:

In the only unkown-role game that I've played with strager he was definitely NOT this keen on finding roles. He barely posted at all. I think he was a Cop in BM1? This is the total reverse O_o

0_o wrote:

Lucidity wrote:

If you think about it, it's highly unlikely that both me and Echo are Mafia in this game as we were the two Mafia in Newbie Mafia 3 as well

If you know anything about probability then you'd know that since the two games are independent events, then their probabilities are also independent.

Lets say you roll a dice, and it comes up a six. Does this mean if you roll another one, it's less likely to be a six than any other number? Each number would still have an equal chance of of being rolled, regardless of what was rolled before.

Anyway, I actually don't think there is more than one mafia this game, personally I think it's too small for that.. but I guess we won't find out for sure till tomorrow =/

Lucidity wrote:

The probability of Echo and I being Mafia in NM3 and NSM is:

1/[7C2] * 1/[9C2] = 0.00132

That's 36 times smaller ~_~

Derekku Chan wrote:

Weren't there nine players in the newbie mafias? I'm too lazy to check X3

Regardless, I think there's two mafia =<

Lucidity wrote:

This means we either have only 1 Mafia or there is an abundance of Cops around to counter the bigger Mafia threat. If the Cop claims are all truthful then we probably do have 2 Mafia -.- But at least one of the "Cops" probably lied :/ And there's really no point in speculating about it, because we'll know what's going on when LS announces LyLo (or not) in Day 2.

Saturos-fangirl wrote:

Derekku Chan wrote:

Role Claim: Twilight Brownie

I'm delicious <3

wait this just struck me

brownie == cop?

or are you just joking around o0

Lucidity wrote:

Saturos-fangirl wrote:

Derekku Chan wrote:

Role Claim: Twilight Brownie

I'm delicious <3

wait this just struck me

brownie == cop?

or are you just joking around o0

Sorry I missed the link >: How does Brownie == cop?

1. speculating about setup - scumtell
2. rolefishing - scumtell
3. misdirecting town attention - scumtell

0_o wrote:

mod: Are the mafia allowed to PM eachother at twilight/during the day? (assuming there are more than one mafia)

Lucidity wrote:

@SFG: Sure it's a good trade if we know that there is only 1 Cop. We don't. Both of you might be Cops. Until Day 2 we won't know how many Mafia there are either. The safest option to pursue if we followed this strategy would be to vote adam, as he is a Day cop and can then investigate before he is lynched, reveal his results and have it confirmed when he dies.

I am leaning towards you being a fake Cop though. You just seem too uninformed to be one :/ Examples are here and here.

Here (and following posts) she is fishing for info on what a Cop (Her role) can do. Why not ask about it in a PM instead of giving it to the Mafia in the thread? Unless she's Mafia looking for info?

Saturos-fangirl wrote:

wait this just struck me

brownie == cop?

or are you just joking around o0

Sorry I missed the link >: How does Brownie == cop?

Echo wrote:

@sfg:
strager's spent most of his posts speculating about the game setup rather than the game, and combined it with rolefishing. Although he did that last game(s?), there just seems to be more of it in this game than usual. strager's also speculating about what roles can do - eg. roles that gain powers, etc. with absolutely no proof at all, AND such things can never be proved while the game is still running. A wrong guess at the game setup can easily be disastrous for town. We're wasting precious time on such things.

Lucidity also raises some good points about you (sfg) - why do you seem to know absolutely nothing about your supposed cop role?

strager wrote:

Lucidity wrote:

The safest option to pursue if we followed this strategy would be to vote adam, as he is a Day cop and can then investigate before he is lynched, reveal his results and have it confirmed when he dies.

How is that safe? We only get one investigation from adam that way, and hopefully another from SFG if she makes it to D2. Maybe even none if adam is Naive or Paranoid (or lying about his role, but if that were true, he'd probably be the Mafia and we'd win anyway).

If both Cop claimers are kept alive, and at least one of them remains alive for D2 (likely; hopefully adam stays alive, as he can bring results before Twilight), we can get two or three investigations by D2. However, we don't know the sanities, but that can be found out if either or both Cops are killed by D3, LyLo.

I think it's better to try and keep the Cops alive for at least D2 so they can have as many investigations as they can. Thus, I'm not voting either of the two for now.

strager wrote:

Lucidity wrote:

I am leaning towards you being a fake Cop though. You just seem too uninformed to be one :/ Examples are here and here.

Maybe so, but I'm giving SFG the benefit of the doubt here, for today. Again, the Cops would be better alive D2 than dead.

strager wrote:

Lucidity wrote:

Here (and following posts) she is fishing for info on what a Cop (Her role) can do. Why not ask about it in a PM instead of giving it to the Mafia in the thread? Unless she's Mafia looking for info?

I did the same thing, to a greater degree, even.

strager wrote:

Echo wrote:

A wrong guess at the game setup can easily be disastrous for town. We're wasting precious time on such things.

I agree, which is why I stopped myself. I don't think it's THAT much of a risk that we would lose because of a guess/hunch/whatever, as we have at least three Days to catch the Mafia (assuming there's only one).

0_o wrote:

Everyone who has role claimed so far has had a special prefix or other change to it (Day Cop, Twilight Townie, Twilight Brownie (?)), except for SFG, who just said she was a "cop". Since adam says he's a Day Cop, I would think the cops would either be told they are a Twilight or Day cop. Why didn't SFG specify one of these in her initial role claim? I think it's quite possible SFG made an early claim just to appear confident in her role, but didn't have the knowledge of the existence of Twilight/Day cops at the time

SFG wrote:

obviously i was concerned because my cop role is different from adam's. specifically, adam is (supposedly) a Day Cop whereas I am a Twilight Cop.

Saturos-fangirl wrote:

Lucidity wrote:

@SFG: Sure it's a good trade if we know that there is only 1 Cop. We don't. Both of you might be Cops. Until Day 2 we won't know how many Mafia there are either. The safest option to pursue if we followed this strategy would be to vote adam, as he is a Day cop and can then investigate before he is lynched, reveal his results and have it confirmed when he dies.

greeeeaaat plan. lets go and kill off the cop to make sure hes a cop and hope the person he happened to scan was mafia. why didnt i think of that?

Saturos-fangirl wrote:

I am leaning towards you being a fake Cop though. You just seem too uninformed to be one :/ Examples are here and here.

D: of course im still uninformed i havent had a chance to investigate anyone yet! geez, i cant pull results out of my hat you know.
Well i suppose i could but they wouldnt be very helpful cus thatd be me making stuff up. thats more what i would be doing if i were mafia =.=;

Saturos-fangirl wrote:

Here (and following posts) she is fishing for info on what a Cop (Her role) can do. Why not ask about it in a PM instead of giving it to the Mafia in the thread? Unless she's Mafia looking for info?

sorry i figured while strager was having a q&a session i might as well join in. it hadnt occurred to me to pm.

Saturos-fangirl wrote:

Brownie or Brownjob is a slang term for cop in parts of the US and some fiction series', based on the brown uniforms they wear. I guess what is obvious to me is not necessarily obvious to others.

Saturos-fangirl wrote:

0_o wrote:

Everyone who has role claimed so far has had a special prefix or other change to it (Day Cop, Twilight Townie, Twilight Brownie (?)), except for SFG, who just said she was a "cop". Since adam says he's a Day Cop, I would think the cops would either be told they are a Twilight or Day cop. Why didn't SFG specify one of these in her initial role claim? I think it's quite possible SFG made an early claim just to appear confident in her role, but didn't have the knowledge of the existence of Twilight/Day cops at the time

SFG wrote:

obviously i was concerned because my cop role is different from adam's. specifically, adam is (supposedly) a Day Cop whereas I am a Twilight Cop.

fail

oh right i want this discussion started fast so


Claim: Cop

oh i actually meant to claim cop

Saturos-fangirl wrote:

fail

0_o wrote:

Why didn't SFG specify one of these in her initial role claim?

0_o wrote:

Of course you know now that you should be a twilight cop, but why didn't you say so when you first claimed? If adam was told he's a day cop, you should have been told you were a twilight cop, and if you were you would have specifically said so when you first claimed. The fact that you were so suspicious of adam's claim of Day Cop also supports this.

Lucidity wrote:

strager wrote:

Lucidity wrote:

The safest option to pursue if we followed this strategy would be to vote adam, as he is a Day cop and can then investigate before he is lynched, reveal his results and have it confirmed when he dies.

How is that safe? We only get one investigation from adam that way, and hopefully another from SFG if she makes it to D2. Maybe even none if adam is Naive or Paranoid (or lying about his role, but if that were true, he'd probably be the Mafia and we'd win anyway).

If both Cop claimers are kept alive, and at least one of them remains alive for D2 (likely; hopefully adam stays alive, as he can bring results before Twilight), we can get two or three investigations by D2. However, we don't know the sanities, but that can be found out if either or both Cops are killed by D3, LyLo.

I think it's better to try and keep the Cops alive for at least D2 so they can have as many investigations as they can. Thus, I'm not voting either of the two for now.

If you read my entire post and the post it was aimed at as a reply (SFG's suggestion) you'd understand it better maybe. Please reread Pay particular close attention to: "The safest option to pursue if we followed this strategy..."

Lucidity wrote:

strager wrote:

Lucidity wrote:

I am leaning towards you being a fake Cop though. You just seem too uninformed to be one :/ Examples are here and here.

Maybe so, but I'm giving SFG the benefit of the doubt here, for today. Again, the Cops would be better alive D2 than dead.

:\ She keeps defending you. You keep defending her. Get a room guys ;p

Lucidity wrote:

strager wrote:

Lucidity wrote:

Here (and following posts) she is fishing for info on what a Cop (Her role) can do. Why not ask about it in a PM instead of giving it to the Mafia in the thread? Unless she's Mafia looking for info?

I did the same thing, to a greater degree, even.

Horrid defence this time though! You did the same thing and admitted that it was to the detriment of the town. Why does it make it all better if she does it?

Lucidity wrote:

Furthermore you were trying to find out about roles in general. SFG was fishing for info on the Cop role. The role she claims to be. A role she can safely enquire about via PM without giving the Mafia valuable information. That's not on.

Lucidity wrote:

strager wrote:

Echo wrote:

A wrong guess at the game setup can easily be disastrous for town. We're wasting precious time on such things.

I agree, which is why I stopped myself. I don't think it's THAT much of a risk that we would lose because of a guess/hunch/whatever, as we have at least three Days to catch the Mafia (assuming there's only one).

Justifying "guessing" with more guessing? That's a nono. We should try to work with what we've been given as much as possible. Any guesses should not be given TOO much weight.

Echo wrote:

Even though this is setup speculation, I'm sure everyone here would agree 3 cops doesn't sound quite right

strager wrote:

http://osu.ppy.sh/forum/viewtopic.php?p=166463#p166463
T'was a joke.

Lucidity wrote:

Saa~ Did you ONLY ask about Cops? Sure the majority was focused on it, but it wasn't an exclusive interest. I'm going to bed now, so I'm not going to reread the thread again to find counter examples -.-

Lucidity wrote:

You're missing the point though. SFG claimed to be a Cop. You didn't. She could PM LadySuburu to her heart's content and find out everything she possibly wanted. Her role PM would probably have specified most of the things she wanted to know anyway. The point is it's suspicious of a Cop to be so clueless~Throwing around exactly how her role works in the thread is also very risky...

1. She was fitting in with the questions I was asking.
2. She didn't realize she was making her question public and possibly helping the Mafia.
3. She did realize she was making her question public and was trying to help the Town (and perhaps adam, though I don't think the question she asked applies to him).
4. She was trying to expand upon my previous question about investigating dead people. (Possible way to find her sanity or land a useful investigation.)

Echo wrote:

Wait so only adam and SFG officially claimed cop now?

Can I remind you that Night 0 (or Twilight in this case) is a part of the game - it's a chance to discuss in advance? I won't accept anyone saying that they were "just joking around" in T0.

Saturos-fangirl wrote:

its super hard to scumpaint people if theres no discussion going on

strager wrote:

Saturos-fangirl wrote:

its super hard to scumpaint people if theres no discussion going on

Is there a need to scumpaint if someone is already painted? Unless you're the Mafia, of course.

Saturos-fangirl wrote:

strager wrote:

Saturos-fangirl wrote:

its super hard to scumpaint people if theres no discussion going on

Is there a need to scumpaint if someone is already painted? Unless you're the Mafia, of course.

oh whoops thats supposed to say scumhunt sry

strager wrote:

Saturos-fangirl wrote:

You've been saying 'scumpaint' a while. Maybe you've been playing and watching Pasonia play CM too long?

Saturos-fangirl wrote:

strager wrote:

Saturos-fangirl wrote:

You've been saying 'scumpaint' a while. Maybe you've been playing and watching Pasonia play CM too long?

..? a while? thats the first time ive mentioned it and accidental at that

Saturos-fangirl wrote:

Lucidity, Echo, adam, i want you guys to start talking so i can scumpaint people

strager wrote:

My bad, you only said it once before: viewtopic.php?p=166970#p166970

Saturos-fangirl wrote:

Lucidity, Echo, adam, i want you guys to start talking so i can scumpaint people

Echo wrote:

strager, why are you feeding SFG a defense?

Echo wrote:

strager, why are you feeding SFG a defense?

Echo wrote:

Let me ask you a question then - who do you think we should lynch today then?

Echo wrote:

why would you even suggest a no lynch then negate that suggestion by saying it's bad?

Echo wrote:

Now you're trying to frame me if strager turns out innocent :/

strager wrote:

Lucidity doesn't (to me) have sense in his reasons for arguing his points. (That's poorly worded; hope you get the meaning.)

Derekku Chan wrote:

*also awaiting his results before making a vote*

Echo wrote:

Derekku Chan wrote:

*also awaiting his results before making a vote*

I thought you claimed townie (brownie) :/

adam2046 wrote:

Make your own decisions.

adam2046 wrote:

That's some great work there.
Let's not kill SFG tonight.

adam2046 wrote:

Let's not kill SFG tonight.

Saturos-fangirl wrote:

unvote
vote adam

Derekku Chan wrote:

Echo wrote:

Derekku Chan wrote:

*also awaiting his results before making a vote*

I thought you claimed townie (brownie) :/

Uhh yes? What about it?

Echo wrote:

What results?