strager wrote:

Derekku Chan wrote:

adam2046 wrote:

Vote: Derekku
That's quite enough of that.

ffs it's not like I'm disrupting any "discussion"

That's what LS named me so that's that.

Then...

Derekku Chan, after edit wrote:

adam2046 wrote:

Vote: Derekku
That's quite enough of that.

ffs it's not like I'm disrupting any "discussion"

That's what LS named me so that's that. I'll shut up now

You say LS is your mother? Now THAT'S a twist in the plot.

EDIT: wait that kinda looks like a nodding motion uhhh oh fuck it *leaves*

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0_o wrote:

Derekku Chan wrote:

That's what LS named me so that's that. I'll shut up now

Wait.. so you are actually a "Twilight Brownie"?

lolololololol.

I didn't know Derekku was black.

He sounds much too white. =<

Maybe he's a white brownie? Oxymoronic...

(Can't believe I missed that meaning ... Thought Derekku was saying LS was her mother.)

This map has been deleted on the request of its creator. It is no longer available.

You're the one gaying it up, strager >_>

Anyway, regardless of what I'm named, I'm a "townie". So... for clarification Role Claim: Townie

Derekku Chan wrote:

You're the one gaying it up, strager >_>

You're the one stretching open your hole.

(Your mouth that is.)

((That doesn't make it any less sick.))

Derekku Chan wrote:

Anyway, regardless of what I'm named, I'm a "townie". So... for clarification Role Claim: Townie

Not Twilight Townie?

strager wrote:

Saturos-fangirl wrote:

oh also its kinda stupid to speculate on setup

Having any idea on the setup (even just a guess which you can discard later) is better than having no idea on the setup, especially for certain roles like the Doctor (so he knows who to protect) and the Cop (so he knows if he'll get a Guilty on a Townie due to their role).

knowing the setup helps mafia more than town

i skimmed the last ~4 pages or so, someone please summarise any role claims

oh, mod vote count ty

i claimed cop about three times now

adam also claimed cop and Derekku and i think 0_o claimed townie

Echo wrote:

strager wrote:

Saturos-fangirl wrote:

oh also its kinda stupid to speculate on setup

Having any idea on the setup (even just a guess which you can discard later) is better than having no idea on the setup, especially for certain roles like the Doctor (so he knows who to protect) and the Cop (so he knows if he'll get a Guilty on a Townie due to their role).

knowing the setup helps mafia more than town

How so? I think you tried explaining in another game (BM1? where YOU were Mafia?) but I couldn't really understand why, I think. I'll reread that discussion.

Echo wrote:

i skimmed the last ~4 pages or so, someone please summarise any role claims

By memory:
SFG claims Cop
adam claims Cop
0_o claims Twilight Townie
Derekku claims Townie

Moat Vote Count:

adam - 1 (Derekku)
Derekku - 1 (adam)
strager - 1 (SFG)

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What good is it to the town if we know that there is, for example, a doctor or a cop? But if the mafia know that they exist, they can start looking for tells because they *know* the role exists. When they don't know the role exists, they'll need to resort to guessing, which increases the chances of survival of the PRs.

Also rolefishing is a scumtell because there is no benefit for town to know who has what role (unless you're the doctor and trying to find the cop(s) or something), whereas the mafia will love to know who has what role so they can plan the NKs

seeing as strager's only on 1 vote, there's no harm in vote: strager for rolefishing

DAY COP
DAAAAAAAAAAY COOOOOOOOOP
Sheesh
It was clearly bolded.

I still don't see how that works, but you're entitled to your own logic and I don't have to agree, really. However, you did say the same thing in BM1, where you were a Mafia, so I'm kind of suspicious about that.

I wouldn't say I'm rolefishing. I'm not asking people to claim. I'm just looking at what information we have from claims to see what's possible and what is the better action to take given this information. For example, see my post about who/how the Cops should investigate.

I do have to agree that rolefishing is probably suspicious, though I haven't seen it applied in a game I've played/followed (unless I'm that blind), so I can't say if it's reliable. I'm sure you've the experience, and it does sound like a possible tell, so that's why I'm agreeing on this point.

adam2046 wrote:

DAY COP
DAAAAAAAAAAY COOOOOOOOOP
Sheesh
It was clearly bolded.

Care to clarify?

You can investigate during the Day and have results by the Twilight?

In that case, that's pretty useful. Have the Doctor protect you so we get two investigations by Twilight 2. Some WIFOM: Mafia sees this and kills the other Cop, but the Doctor sees this and protects that other Cop, but the Mafia sees THAT and ... The least-risk scenario is to protect adam because he is more valuable than SFG (investigations are a turn earlier, before the Twilight kill) (also, sorry SFG =X). Of course, the Doctor should keep quiet about who he's going to protect. =]

However, I fear adam being Naive or Paranoid, and SFG being Sane (or Insane), to balance this.

First sentence:

strager wrote:

I still don't see how that works, but you're entitled to your own logic and I don't have to agree, really.

End of last sentence:

strager wrote:

it does sound like a possible tell, so that's why I'm agreeing on this point.

That was quick?

0_o wrote:

First sentence:

strager wrote:

I still don't see how that works, but you're entitled to your own logic and I don't have to agree, really.

End of last sentence:

strager wrote:

it does sound like a possible tell, so that's why I'm agreeing on this point.

That was quick?

First was about how Echo feels information about roles (how roles work, and what roles are in the game) helps the Mafia and not the Town.

Second was about how collecting roles (trying to get people to claim) helps the Mafia and not the Town.

I get results right away.

adam2046 wrote:

I get results right away.

So I assume you haven't investigated anyone?

I might have.

Hmm...

Mod: Do Twilight actions (in particular, a Twilight kill by the Mafia) take place immediately, or are all actions queued to the end of the Twilight like in other Mafia games?

I ask because if adam doesn't investigate speak his result during Day 1, and Twilight actions are taken immediately, he may be killed before we know his results.

strager wrote:

Hmm...

Mod: Do Twilight actions (in particular, a Twilight kill by the Mafia) take place immediately, or are all actions queued to the end of the Twilight like in other Mafia games?

I ask because if adam doesn't investigate speak his result during Day 1, and Twilight actions are taken immediately, he may be killed before we know his results.

At my own choice, I will tell you all this piece of information.

In this game (and this game only), unless a role can be blocked by another, the actions will take place intantly. Therefore, for example, if a cop does his action and gets results almost immediately, then there isn't a role that can block the cop during that phase. Other than that, I will not give any info on this subject.

LadySuburu wrote:

In this game (and this game only), unless a role can be blocked by another, the actions will take place intantly. Therefore, for example, if a cop does his action and gets results almost immediately, then there isn't a role that can block the cop during that phase. Other than that, I will not give any info on this subject.

Does a kill count as a block for Cops?

Scenario one: Cop investigates, tells results. Then is killed.
Scenario two: Cop killed. Then, investigates. Can't tell results.

Which scenario will take place?

strager wrote:

LadySuburu wrote:

In this game (and this game only), unless a role can be blocked by another, the actions will take place intantly. Therefore, for example, if a cop does his action and gets results almost immediately, then there isn't a role that can block the cop during that phase. Other than that, I will not give any info on this subject.

Does a kill count as a block for Cops?

Scenario one: Cop investigates, tells results. Then is killed.
Scenario two: Cop killed. Then, investigates. Can't tell results.

Which scenario will take place?

S1, if he doesn't get killed immediately as it happens.

strager is definitely digging too deeply into roles for my comfort.

Echo wrote:

strager is definitely digging too deeply into roles for my comfort

Well, I kinda usually do that. I like to know every detail about every role I can so I can see how things can play out, and make a decision (and encourage others to) which is most benefitial for the Town.

If you're a cop and want to work out the details, you would be PM'ing LS.
If you're a pro-town, there's no reason you need to ask LS - anyone playing cops (especially in this game) would be smart enough to work out strategies themselves without your input, and no one really has reason to trust any input you give anyway. You're helping to give away information that may not have been given away.

There's one other possibility, of course.

Ah, I see what you mean.

I was trying to help, but it seems in doing so that'd help the Mafia. I guess this is what you meant by your information-about-roles-is-bad... I see your point and agree.

People only post when I sleep ~_~

I have to agree with Echo about strager. Rolefishing benefits the Mafia the most. Apparently Echo explained this to him in BM1 and he still persisted in doing it in this game. After Echo pointed it out to him again he brushed it off and continued.

Not to mention the inconsistency in his post pointed out by 0_o. Did he type the post and then decided to throw in an "I agree" to make sure he doesn't ruffle too many feathers? He might have just thought about the idea while typing the post and by the end of it realised that Echo was making sense. The problem with this theory is that he tried to make a (bad) excuse for his inconsistency in his next post. (Which means he did not have an epiphany halfway through the post) He also carries on throwing information out into the public domain, completely disregarding Echo's warning, which he claims to understand.

(Hopefully?) he has stopped now, by acknowledging Echo for the second time.

strager, you're on the top of my suspicion list at the moment for trying to get all the information you possibly can into the open. The best course of action is surely to trust that the aux roles do their jobs to the best of their ability with the information that they've managed to obtain. If you throw all roles into the open and devise (incomplete) strategies publicly it only benefits the Mafia. They will know exactly what to do in order to stop the strategy from working, wouldn't they? The only time you should try to implement a strategy publicly is if it is guaranteed to work, no matter what the Mafia do.

Finally, what is the point of speculating about possible roles? Especially on Day 1. LS has admitted that she uses basic rules, which might apply to roles too. But any guesswork is just as bad (or worse) as not guessing at all. If your guess is wrong (and let's face it. you have nothing to base your guesses on yet) then it is to the detriment to the town. Could you explain how guessing roles and devising (public) strategies around them benefits the Town?

Plox explain all the points I made strager D: I might be horribly wrong.

Lucidity wrote:

I have to agree with Echo about strager. Rolefishing benefits the Mafia the most. Apparently Echo explained this to him in BM1 and he still persisted in doing it in this game. After Echo pointed it out to him again he brushed it off and continued.

BM1, Echo was Mafia and I was a Townie. Echo used the same argument there as he is here, which makes me suspicious of him. Not really something solid, but it's something.

Also, as I said, I didn't really understand his argument then.

Lucidity wrote:

Not to mention the inconsistency in his post pointed out by 0_o. Did he type the post and then decided to throw in an "I agree" to make sure he doesn't ruffle too many feathers? He might have just thought about the idea while typing the post and by the end of it realised that Echo was making sense. The problem with this theory is that he tried to make a (bad) excuse for his inconsistency in his next post. (Which means he did not have an epiphany halfway through the post) He also carries on throwing information out into the public domain, completely disregarding Echo's warning, which he claims to understand.

Maybe I should add the quotes I was referring to in the post with my alleged inconsistency, to hopefully clarify better.

strager wrote:

Echo wrote:

What good is it to the town if we know that there is, for example, a doctor or a cop? But if the mafia know that they exist, they can start looking for tells because they *know* the role exists. When they don't know the role exists, they'll need to resort to guessing, which increases the chances of survival of the PRs.

I still don't see how that works, but you're entitled to your own logic and I don't have to agree, really. However, you did say the same thing in BM1, where you were a Mafia, so I'm kind of suspicious about that.

Echo wrote:

Also rolefishing is a scumtell because there is no benefit for town to know who has what role (unless you're the doctor and trying to find the cop(s) or something), whereas the mafia will love to know who has what role so they can plan the NKs

I wouldn't say I'm rolefishing. I'm not asking people to claim. I'm just looking at what information we have from claims to see what's possible and what is the better action to take given this information. For example, see my post about who/how the Cops should investigate.

I do have to agree that rolefishing is probably suspicious, though I haven't seen it applied in a game I've played/followed (unless I'm that blind), so I can't say if it's reliable. I'm sure you've the experience, and it does sound like a possible tell, so that's why I'm agreeing on this point.

I was agreeing with one argument and disagreeing with the other. The one I disagreed to I later changed my mind on.

Lucidity wrote:

(Hopefully?) he has stopped now, by acknowledging Echo for the second time.

Of course; if it hurts the Town (by helping the Mafia), I obviously shouldn't do it.

Lucidity wrote:

strager, you're on the top of my suspicion list at the moment for trying to get all the information you possibly can into the open. The best course of action is surely to trust that the aux roles do their jobs to the best of their ability with the information that they've managed to obtain. If you throw all roles into the open and devise (incomplete) strategies publicly it only benefits the Mafia. They will know exactly what to do in order to stop the strategy from working, wouldn't they? The only time you should try to implement a strategy publicly is if it is guaranteed to work, no matter what the Mafia do.

Yup, and this is what I saw in my last post too.

Lucidity wrote:

Finally, what is the point of speculating about possible roles? Especially on Day 1. LS has admitted that she uses basic rules, which might apply to roles too. But any guesswork is just as bad (or worse) as not guessing at all. If your guess is wrong (and let's face it. you have nothing to base your guesses on yet) then it is to the detriment to the town. Could you explain how guessing roles and devising (public) strategies around them benefits the Town?

Kinda as I said before: I saw this in my last post.

Saying (publicly) how you will act makes your actions easier to counter.

guys stop hammering strager, you did that last time too and he nearly saved you guys by convincing the mafia that he was the doctor (M2)

and about the daycop thing, adam, i guess you're bad at being mafia cus you didn't read the opening post well enough.

OP wrote:

Night never comes. There's only twilight. This is also a precursor to BM2. (Night actions take place during twilight, and during twilight you can post.)

Night actions take place during twilight

good job

vote adam

Saturos-fangirl wrote:

and about the daycop thing, adam, i guess you're bad at being mafia cus you didn't read the opening post well enough.

OP wrote:

Night never comes. There's only twilight. This is also a precursor to BM2. (Night actions take place during twilight, and during twilight you can post.)

Night actions take place during twilight

good job

vote adam

It doesn't say anything about Day actions, only Night actions (which are routed into Twilight actions in this game).

yeah but Cop is a night-based role

Saturos-fangirl wrote:

yeah but Cop is a night-based role

I don't think a Day Cop is.

strager wrote:

Saturos-fangirl wrote:

yeah but Cop is a night-based role

I don't think a Day Cop is.

oh well its RVS anyways

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yeah but it can be random now

...geez.

I guess because discussion has halted for now, I will reread the thread. Hopefully Echo will make his appearance when I'm done.

viewtopic.php?p=166463#p166463
T'was a joke.

viewtopic.php?p=166466#p166466
I missed the "All the cops in the house scan yourself today/night!" line.

viewtopic.php?p=166467#p166467
Did I spell strait right? Or is it something else? Hmm...

I think it's straight.

viewtopic.php?p=166470#p166470
WIFOM: Trying to "disprove" the possibility of him (Derekku) being a Sibling by saying "jkjk" ?

viewtopic.php?p=166969#p166969
(Senseless reply) Then it'd be NM, which is reserved for Newbie Mafia. Current convention is NSM.

viewtopic.php?p=166996#p166996
Derekku continues with his running joke, and it's kinda annoying. Not sure if it's meant as a distraction or something, or just to add fun to the game (ineffectively here).

viewtopic.php?p=167008#p167008
viewtopic.php?p=167082#p167082
I'm sure Derekku's role differs SOMEHOW from 0_o's. One of them may be lying, but both are kinda believable. I don't know LS enough to know if she'd add a silly role like Twilight Brownie though.

viewtopic.php?p=167091#p167091
Here, I seemed to have misread Derekku's post. Still, the above (thing???) applies.

Not seeing much, really. I skipped over the longer posts because I don't feel like reading them. It'd take an hour. =[

strager wrote:

http://osu.ppy.sh/forum/viewtopic.php?p=166470#p166470
WIFOM: Trying to "disprove" the possibility of him (Derekku) being a Sibling by saying "jkjk" ?

wat I seriously was just joking. It wasn't even Day 1 yet :<

strager wrote:

http://osu.ppy.sh/forum/viewtopic.php?p=166996#p166996
Derekku continues with his running joke, and it's kinda annoying. Not sure if it's meant as a distraction or something, or just to add fun to the game (ineffectively here).

The random vote random vote random vote random vote thing gets a little boring after a while, so I tried to have a little fun with my role. Why didn't you attack anyone else for their jokes and fun? FOS strag-*gets shot* I didn't mean it as a distraction, and if anyone thought it was, then I'm sorry for having fun

strager wrote:

http://osu.ppy.sh/forum/viewtopic.php?p=167008#p167008
viewtopic.php?p=167082#p167082
I'm sure Derekku's role differs SOMEHOW from 0_o's. One of them may be lying, but both are kinda believable. I don't know LS enough to know if she'd add a silly role like Twilight Brownie though.

I think she would xd ("Vanilla Townie" does get kinda boring after a while...)

strager wrote:

http://osu.ppy.sh/forum/viewtopic.php?p=167091#p167091
Here, I seemed to have misread Derekku's post. Still, the above (thing???) applies.

fffffffffffff I knew you'd bring this up again. I've already answered you. Regardless of what sillyness LS added to this game, I (and most likely 0_o) are "townies". Let it be vanilla, twilight, or brownie.

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This map has been deleted on the request of its creator. It is no longer available.

Derekku Chan wrote:

strager wrote:

http://osu.ppy.sh/forum/viewtopic.php?p=166996#p166996
Derekku continues with his running joke, and it's kinda annoying. Not sure if it's meant as a distraction or something, or just to add fun to the game (ineffectively here).

The random vote random vote random vote random vote thing gets a little boring after a while, so I tried to have a little fun with my role. Why didn't you attack anyone else for their jokes and fun? FOS strag-*gets shot* I didn't mean it as a distraction, and if anyone thought it was, then I'm sorry for having fun

It wasn't that others were distracting. It was just that yours mostly interrupted my thoughts.

Derekku Chan wrote:

strager wrote:

http://osu.ppy.sh/forum/viewtopic.php?p=167091#p167091
Here, I seemed to have misread Derekku's post. Still, the above (thing???) applies.

fffffffffffff I knew you'd bring this up again.

Again?

0_o wrote:

Also SFG you can't do a serious vote then go "oh ok never mind, it's a random vote now". It doesn't work that way

I agree, but I kinda let it be. It's not like the vote does anything serious for now (like all random votes). Because the argument was defunt (I think) a bandwagon didn't follow.

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Derekku Chan wrote:

Derekku Chan wrote:

strager wrote:

http://osu.ppy.sh/forum/viewtopic.php?p=167091#p167091
Here, I seemed to have misread Derekku's post. Still, the above (thing???) applies.
fffffffffffff I knew you'd bring this up again.

Again

Just like 0_o said, we know how you act. You're strager x3

?

I only pointed it out to show that I had made a mistake in that post. I wasn't re-asking the question.

So why'd you said "again?"

Someone pointed out that maybe Brownie == Cop.

I just saw there is a Backup role on MafiaWiki. Seems possible for 0_o or Derekku.

EDIT: That, or a Deputy. Seems a 0_o-SFG or Derekku-SFG link would be possible.

(Just wanted to post a finding; not suspecting anyone or anything.)

EDIT: D'oh, just realized that making this public probably helps the Mafia. I'm not one to remove (posted) information, so I won't delete this post's contents, but I'll stop adding to it. =X

There's just something about strager's behaviour that screams "mafia" at me but I can't quite put my finger on it :/

Maybe it's just a trick of light...

it seems to me that if strager were mafia, instead of posting his findings and leaving them there he would be sharing them privately with his mafia friend or, if game contains only one mafia, keeping them to himself.

im going to tentatively clear strager in my head.

also
unvote
vote Lucidity

>w< talk!

Saturos-fangirl wrote:

it seems to me that if strager were mafia, instead of posting his findings and leaving them there he would be sharing them privately with his mafia friend or, if game contains only one mafia, keeping them to himself.

He could just be overposting to be seen as a non-lurker though...I know that a gut feeling is probably not the best thing to go by in this game, but my gut is telling me strager is Mafia -.- My previous post highlights some non-concrete things :/

Saturos-fangirl wrote:

also
unvote
vote Lucidity

>w< talk!

I should talk more? Other than strager I've probably written the most? -.- In terms of post count I might not be the highest, but most of the posts so far have been rubbish. Quality over quantity to be honest...You also need to realise that we're in completely different time zones. I never seem to be online with the Americans, so don't expect a lot of instant replies in the conversations that you have during your night.

Anyway, gonna have a read through of the thread and post some thoughts.

Based on the past ways that strager has acted, I think that he's acting "normal". Thanks for the information, strager. I had completely forgotten about roles that gain power that they don't have at the start. Maybe I am one, then, who knows? Only time will tell.

I think I still have my (random) vote on uhhh adam? So I'll just go ahead and Unvote since random votes are pointless :3

dude why are you guys getting on strager's back? He's acting perfectly legit and you're all like "well i have this sneaking suspicion that hes mafia hurr"

scumpainting much? and you both agree...i think i see two mafia members

vote remains on Lucidity
FOS on Echo

And the same could be said about you defending strager. Excessively even. :/

If you think about it, it's highly unlikely that both me and Echo are Mafia in this game as we were the two Mafia in Newbie Mafia 3 as well...Should I not agree with his perfectly logical "anti-info barfing" point of view purely because I would be seen as scum? In fact Mafia members would try to distance themselves from each other would they not? Reasoning behind accusation denied -_-

In the only unkown-role game that I've played with strager he was definitely NOT this keen on finding roles. He barely posted at all. I think he was a Cop in BM1? This is the total reverse O_o

Lucidity wrote:

If you think about it, it's highly unlikely that both me and Echo are Mafia in this game as we were the two Mafia in Newbie Mafia 3 as well

If you know anything about probability then you'd know that since the two games are independent events, then their probabilities are also independent.

Lets say you roll a dice, and it comes up a six. Does this mean if you roll another one, it's less likely to be a six than any other number? Each number would still have an equal chance of of being rolled, regardless of what was rolled before.

Anyway, I actually don't think there is more than one mafia this game, personally I think it's too small for that.. but I guess we won't find out for sure till tomorrow =/

Izit?

Let's look at it closely shall we?

The probability of Echo and I being Mafia in this game is:

1/[7C2] = 0.0476

The probability of Echo and I being Mafia in NM3 and NSM is:

1/[7C2] * 1/[9C2] = 0.00132

That's 36 times smaller ~_~

I don't have time to post much.

Saturos-fangirl wrote:

it seems to me that if strager were mafia, instead of posting his findings and leaving them there he would be sharing them privately with his mafia friend or, if game contains only one mafia, keeping them to himself.

I know it's not a defense, but that's WIFOM.

Saturos-fangirl wrote:

dude why are you guys getting on strager's back? He's acting perfectly legit and you're all like "well i have this sneaking suspicion that hes mafia hurr"

?

Lucidity wrote:

If you think about it, it's highly unlikely that both me and Echo are Mafia in this game as we were the two Mafia in Newbie Mafia 3 as well...

Logical fallacy IIRC, as 0_o pointed out.

Lucidity wrote:

In the only unkown-role game that I've played with strager he was definitely NOT this keen on finding roles. He barely posted at all. I think he was a Cop in BM1? This is the total reverse O_o

I was a Cop, yes. The game was so large I didn't care about roles until it got much smaller, where the game is easier to work with.

Gotta go...

0_o wrote:

Lucidity wrote:

If you think about it, it's highly unlikely that both me and Echo are Mafia in this game as we were the two Mafia in Newbie Mafia 3 as well

If you know anything about probability then you'd know that since the two games are independent events, then their probabilities are also independent.

Lets say you roll a dice, and it comes up a six. Does this mean if you roll another one, it's less likely to be a six than any other number? Each number would still have an equal chance of of being rolled, regardless of what was rolled before.

Anyway, I actually don't think there is more than one mafia this game, personally I think it's too small for that.. but I guess we won't find out for sure till tomorrow =/

game is seven people, right?

*checks*

yeah so its the same size as the newbie mafia games.
which, i might point out, had two mafia members each.
this is why i think this is a two-mafia game.

also@Echo, Lucidity, im not talking about you two "buddying" im talking about you both say strager is mafia based on "gut feelings" - maybe you thought you could bandwagon a vote on him? youre being pretty stupid about it.

Lucidity wrote:

The probability of Echo and I being Mafia in NM3 and NSM is:

1/[7C2] * 1/[9C2] = 0.00132

That's 36 times smaller ~_~

That's only if you don't know the outcome of both games. The probability of rolling 2 sixes is (1*6) * (1*6) = 1/36, but if you are given that the first roll is a six, then the first roll has a probability of 1, making the equation 1 * 1/6 = 1/6.
Also by your logic, any pair of us has a 0.00132 chance of being mafia. The probability of you and Echo being mafia in the first game, followed by say, me and strager being mafia in the second game is exactly the same.

Heh, you're quite right 0_o. The probability of Echo and I being Mafia partners in this game in isolation is the same as any other combination of 2 people. You're looking at P(B|A) when that is obviously equal to P(B) if A and B are independent events. You have to consider the purpose of the calculation though. You're calculating something different.

What I'm suggesting is that you look at a longer time horizon. The probability of Echo and I being partners in 2 games is equal to P(B)*P(A). There is no point in assuming Event A is given, because we're not just looking at this game. I'm saying that picking Echo and I in two consecutive games is less likely than being picked in one game. I don't know how else to explain this, but I am quite confident that my method is correct. I used to get firsts (A's or whatever you want to call it) in my undergrad for this basic probability theory.

I have no idea how LadySuburu assigns roles. It might not even be completely random so the point is moot.

Anyway, we're straying way off course here. The difference is that you're calculating the probability of the event in this game in isolation and I'm considering the event across two games. If you disagree I think we should leave it at that. We've wasted enough posts on it It is certainly not helping us catch the Mafia. Was fun though ;p

Weren't there nine players in the newbie mafias? I'm too lazy to check X3

Regardless, I think there's two mafia =<

Derekku Chan wrote:

Weren't there nine players in the newbie mafias? I'm too lazy to check X3

Regardless, I think there's two mafia =<

Yeah there were. Dunno why SFG thinks it's 7 O_o?

If there are 2 Mafia in this game and we lynch a townie today we're in LyLo in Day 2 (Assuming the Doctor (if one exists?) fails to protect). Unless she had a really short game planned I don't think LS would do this.

This means we either have only 1 Mafia or there is an abundance of Cops around to counter the bigger Mafia threat. If the Cop claims are all truthful then we probably do have 2 Mafia -.- But at least one of the "Cops" probably lied :/ And there's really no point in speculating about it, because we'll know what's going on when LS announces LyLo (or not) in Day 2.

Just compare these two scenarios, listed are the mafias for each game (completely hypothetical)

a) M1: You, Echo | M2: You, Echo
b) M1: You, Echo | M2: adam, SFG

Do the calculations, the probabilities of a) and b) happening are exactly the same, no matter which pair you come up with for M2 in the b) scenario.

Going back to the dice roll example: if you roll a dice three times, the probability of rolling 4,1,2 (in order) is exactly the same as rolling 3,3,3 no matter which way you look at it. Seeing as our role assignments are random, this pretty much is a dice roll, so by your logic you are saying that if a die rolls a 3, then the die is less likely to roll a 3 on the next roll.

And yes this does matter, because you are using this "logic" to say you and Echo and very likely not to be Mafia, when you have statistically the exact same probability as any other pair.

What you are saying is listed in MafiaScum as Gambler's Fallacy.

Lucidity wrote:

This means we either have only 1 Mafia or there is an abundance of Cops around to counter the bigger Mafia threat. If the Cop claims are all truthful then we probably do have 2 Mafia -.- But at least one of the "Cops" probably lied :/ And there's really no point in speculating about it, because we'll know what's going on when LS announces LyLo (or not) in Day 2.

if you thought one of us cops (assuming adam wasnt lying) was mafia, why aren't you voting for one of us? 1 cop for 1 mafia is a good trade.

@0_o: As I said, you're quite right. :p I was referring to P(A)*P(B) which is smaller than P(B), but I didn't consider that it is equal for any alternative combination in this game too, so yeah it doesn't really mean much~ I'll concede that we're just as likely Mafia as anyone else~ (I haven't done this in 3 years ok!:p)

@SFG: Sure it's a good trade if we know that there is only 1 Cop. We don't. Both of you might be Cops. Until Day 2 we won't know how many Mafia there are either. The safest option to pursue if we followed this strategy would be to vote adam, as he is a Day cop and can then investigate before he is lynched, reveal his results and have it confirmed when he dies.

I am leaning towards you being a fake Cop though. You just seem too uninformed to be one :/ Examples are here and here.

Here (and following posts) she is fishing for info on what a Cop (Her role) can do. Why not ask about it in a PM instead of giving it to the Mafia in the thread? Unless she's Mafia looking for info?

In comparison adam has provided information about his role that LS later confirmed to be true. I don't know how he would know it otherwise.

Saturos-fangirl wrote:

Derekku Chan wrote:

Role Claim: Twilight Brownie

I'm delicious <3

wait this just struck me

brownie == cop?

or are you just joking around o0

Sorry I missed the link >: How does Brownie == cop?

Lucidity wrote:

Saturos-fangirl wrote:

Derekku Chan wrote:

Role Claim: Twilight Brownie

I'm delicious <3

wait this just struck me

brownie == cop?

or are you just joking around o0

Sorry I missed the link >: How does Brownie == cop?

haha I'm glad you said something, because I didn't get this either Kids and their newfangled slang...

@sfg:
strager's spent most of his posts speculating about the game setup rather than the game, and combined it with rolefishing. Although he did that last game(s?), there just seems to be more of it in this game than usual. strager's also speculating about what roles can do - eg. roles that gain powers, etc. with absolutely no proof at all, AND such things can never be proved while the game is still running. A wrong guess at the game setup can easily be disastrous for town. We're wasting precious time on such things.

In short:

1. speculating about setup - scumtell
2. rolefishing - scumtell
3. misdirecting town attention - scumtell

Lucidity also raises some good points about you (sfg) - why do you seem to know absolutely nothing about your supposed cop role?

also less maths, more play plz.

This map has been deleted on the request of its creator. It is no longer available.

mod: Are the mafia allowed to PM eachother at twilight/during the day? (assuming there are more than one mafia)

0_o wrote:

mod: Are the mafia allowed to PM eachother at twilight/during the day? (assuming there are more than one mafia)

If there are two or more mafia, or any masonry groups, they will commune during twilight.

Lucidity wrote:

@SFG: Sure it's a good trade if we know that there is only 1 Cop. We don't. Both of you might be Cops. Until Day 2 we won't know how many Mafia there are either. The safest option to pursue if we followed this strategy would be to vote adam, as he is a Day cop and can then investigate before he is lynched, reveal his results and have it confirmed when he dies.

greeeeaaat plan. lets go and kill off the cop to make sure hes a cop and hope the person he happened to scan was mafia. why didnt i think of that?

I am leaning towards you being a fake Cop though. You just seem too uninformed to be one :/ Examples are here and here.

D: of course im still uninformed i havent had a chance to investigate anyone yet! geez, i cant pull results out of my hat you know.
Well i suppose i could but they wouldnt be very helpful cus thatd be me making stuff up. thats more what i would be doing if i were mafia =.=;

Here (and following posts) she is fishing for info on what a Cop (Her role) can do. Why not ask about it in a PM instead of giving it to the Mafia in the thread? Unless she's Mafia looking for info?

sorry i figured while strager was having a q&a session i might as well join in. it hadnt occurred to me to pm.

Saturos-fangirl wrote:

wait this just struck me

brownie == cop?

or are you just joking around o0

Sorry I missed the link >: How does Brownie == cop?

Brownie or Brownjob is a slang term for cop in parts of the US and some fiction series', based on the brown uniforms they wear. I guess what is obvious to me is not necessarily obvious to others.

Echo wrote:

@sfg:
strager's spent most of his posts speculating about the game setup rather than the game, and combined it with rolefishing. Although he did that last game(s?), there just seems to be more of it in this game than usual. strager's also speculating about what roles can do - eg. roles that gain powers, etc. with absolutely no proof at all, AND such things can never be proved while the game is still running. A wrong guess at the game setup can easily be disastrous for town. We're wasting precious time on such things.

yeah we're wasting our precious random vote session while we muddle around trying to figure out what to talk about =.=;

Lucidity also raises some good points about you (sfg) - why do you seem to know absolutely nothing about your supposed cop role?

obviously i was concerned because my cop role is different from adam's. specifically, adam is (supposedly) a Day Cop whereas I am a Twilight Cop. Thus the investigations happen at different times and i was confused by the different setup and thought adam was making things up. im still not sure he isnt but you two have persuaded me that he might be telling the truth.

as for the me not trying to take action, i hadnt exactly tracked down the part where Subi said i couldnt take action on T0 but i remembered seeing it, which is why i didnt attempt and couldnt prove offhand that i couldnt take action on T0.

strager wrote:

Lucidity wrote:

The safest option to pursue if we followed this strategy would be to vote adam, as he is a Day cop and can then investigate before he is lynched, reveal his results and have it confirmed when he dies.

How is that safe? We only get one investigation from adam that way, and hopefully another from SFG if she makes it to D2. Maybe even none if adam is Naive or Paranoid (or lying about his role, but if that were true, he'd probably be the Mafia and we'd win anyway).

If both Cop claimers are kept alive, and at least one of them remains alive for D2 (likely; hopefully adam stays alive, as he can bring results before Twilight), we can get two or three investigations by D2. However, we don't know the sanities, but that can be found out if either or both Cops are killed by D3, LyLo.

I think it's better to try and keep the Cops alive for at least D2 so they can have as many investigations as they can. Thus, I'm not voting either of the two for now.

If you read my entire post and the post it was aimed at as a reply (SFG's suggestion) you'd understand it better maybe. Please reread Pay particular close attention to: "The safest option to pursue if we followed this strategy..."

strager wrote:

Lucidity wrote:

I am leaning towards you being a fake Cop though. You just seem too uninformed to be one :/ Examples are here and here.

Maybe so, but I'm giving SFG the benefit of the doubt here, for today. Again, the Cops would be better alive D2 than dead.

:\ She keeps defending you. You keep defending her. Get a room guys ;p

strager wrote:

Lucidity wrote:

Here (and following posts) she is fishing for info on what a Cop (Her role) can do. Why not ask about it in a PM instead of giving it to the Mafia in the thread? Unless she's Mafia looking for info?

I did the same thing, to a greater degree, even.

Horrid defence this time though! You did the same thing and admitted that it was to the detriment of the town. Why does it make it all better if she does it? Furthermore you were trying to find out about roles in general. SFG was fishing for info on the Cop role. The role she claims to be. A role she can safely enquire about via PM without giving the Mafia valuable information. That's not on.

strager wrote:

Echo wrote:

A wrong guess at the game setup can easily be disastrous for town. We're wasting precious time on such things.

I agree, which is why I stopped myself. I don't think it's THAT much of a risk that we would lose because of a guess/hunch/whatever, as we have at least three Days to catch the Mafia (assuming there's only one).

Justifying "guessing" with more guessing? That's a nono. We should try to work with what we've been given as much as possible. Any guesses should not be given TOO much weight.

edit: Ninja'd D:

Everyone who has role claimed so far has had a special prefix or other change to it (Day Cop, Twilight Townie, Twilight Brownie (?)), except for SFG, who just said she was a "cop". Since adam says he's a Day Cop, I would think the cops would either be told they are a Twilight or Day cop. Why didn't SFG specify one of these in her initial role claim? I think it's quite possible SFG made an early claim just to appear confident in her role, but didn't have the knowledge of the existence of Twilight/Day cops at the time

vote SFG

Unofficial Vote Count

Derekku - 1 (adam)
strager - 1 (Echo)
Lucidity - 1 (SFG)
SFG - 1 (0_o)

0_o wrote:

Everyone who has role claimed so far has had a special prefix or other change to it (Day Cop, Twilight Townie, Twilight Brownie (?)), except for SFG, who just said she was a "cop". Since adam says he's a Day Cop, I would think the cops would either be told they are a Twilight or Day cop. Why didn't SFG specify one of these in her initial role claim? I think it's quite possible SFG made an early claim just to appear confident in her role, but didn't have the knowledge of the existence of Twilight/Day cops at the time

SFG wrote:

obviously i was concerned because my cop role is different from adam's. specifically, adam is (supposedly) a Day Cop whereas I am a Twilight Cop.

fail

Saturos-fangirl wrote:

Lucidity wrote:

@SFG: Sure it's a good trade if we know that there is only 1 Cop. We don't. Both of you might be Cops. Until Day 2 we won't know how many Mafia there are either. The safest option to pursue if we followed this strategy would be to vote adam, as he is a Day cop and can then investigate before he is lynched, reveal his results and have it confirmed when he dies.

greeeeaaat plan. lets go and kill off the cop to make sure hes a cop and hope the person he happened to scan was mafia. why didnt i think of that?

You did think of that? You're the one who suggested the trade here? I'm the one who said it's only a good plan in a setup where the roles are known? Yeah, I elaborated on a strat to follow if we did go this route, but I didn't suggest we use it and I didn't vote adam. I was simply sharing some thoughts.

Saturos-fangirl wrote:

I am leaning towards you being a fake Cop though. You just seem too uninformed to be one :/ Examples are here and here.

D: of course im still uninformed i havent had a chance to investigate anyone yet! geez, i cant pull results out of my hat you know.
Well i suppose i could but they wouldnt be very helpful cus thatd be me making stuff up. thats more what i would be doing if i were mafia =.=;

You misunderstood. You are uninformed about your role, the very thing that you should know most about. I find this highly suspicious and the fact that you asked about it in the thread is even more suspicious :/

Saturos-fangirl wrote:

Here (and following posts) she is fishing for info on what a Cop (Her role) can do. Why not ask about it in a PM instead of giving it to the Mafia in the thread? Unless she's Mafia looking for info?

sorry i figured while strager was having a q&a session i might as well join in. it hadnt occurred to me to pm.

Hmmm.

Saturos-fangirl wrote:

Brownie or Brownjob is a slang term for cop in parts of the US and some fiction series', based on the brown uniforms they wear. I guess what is obvious to me is not necessarily obvious to others.

Yeah...Police officers here wear blue. (Actually it depends on what type of cop but ya. No brown)

SFG has taken strager's spot and shot to the top of my suspect list. The fact that she may be a Cop makes it hard to vote for her though :/

Saturos-fangirl wrote:

0_o wrote:

Everyone who has role claimed so far has had a special prefix or other change to it (Day Cop, Twilight Townie, Twilight Brownie (?)), except for SFG, who just said she was a "cop". Since adam says he's a Day Cop, I would think the cops would either be told they are a Twilight or Day cop. Why didn't SFG specify one of these in her initial role claim? I think it's quite possible SFG made an early claim just to appear confident in her role, but didn't have the knowledge of the existence of Twilight/Day cops at the time

SFG wrote:

obviously i was concerned because my cop role is different from adam's. specifically, adam is (supposedly) a Day Cop whereas I am a Twilight Cop.

fail

Ninja'd again :O

Here's your initial claim:

oh right i want this discussion started fast so


Claim: Cop

And your second claim:

oh i actually meant to claim cop

You only mentioned "Twilight Cop" now on page 11. After everyone claimed their special roles. The mention of "Twilight Cop" was also necessary to differentiate between Day Cop and your supposed role in that quote. All in all, not a very strong defence from your side :/

Explain? :/

Saturos-fangirl wrote:

fail

0_o wrote:

Why didn't SFG specify one of these in her initial role claim?

Of course you know now that you should be a twilight cop, but why didn't you say so when you first claimed? If adam was told he's a day cop, you should have been told you were a twilight cop, and if you were you would have specifically said so when you first claimed. The fact that you were so suspicious of adam's claim of Day Cop also supports this.

0_o wrote:

Of course you know now that you should be a twilight cop, but why didn't you say so when you first claimed? If adam was told he's a day cop, you should have been told you were a twilight cop, and if you were you would have specifically said so when you first claimed. The fact that you were so suspicious of adam's claim of Day Cop also supports this.

i thought it was obvious that a cop in a nightless game would act in twilight rather than at night =.= obviously i was horribly mistaken

Lucidity wrote:

strager wrote:

Lucidity wrote:

The safest option to pursue if we followed this strategy would be to vote adam, as he is a Day cop and can then investigate before he is lynched, reveal his results and have it confirmed when he dies.

How is that safe? We only get one investigation from adam that way, and hopefully another from SFG if she makes it to D2. Maybe even none if adam is Naive or Paranoid (or lying about his role, but if that were true, he'd probably be the Mafia and we'd win anyway).

If both Cop claimers are kept alive, and at least one of them remains alive for D2 (likely; hopefully adam stays alive, as he can bring results before Twilight), we can get two or three investigations by D2. However, we don't know the sanities, but that can be found out if either or both Cops are killed by D3, LyLo.

I think it's better to try and keep the Cops alive for at least D2 so they can have as many investigations as they can. Thus, I'm not voting either of the two for now.

If you read my entire post and the post it was aimed at as a reply (SFG's suggestion) you'd understand it better maybe. Please reread Pay particular close attention to: "The safest option to pursue if we followed this strategy..."

Yeah, I reread it and now I understand what you were saying. Still, I think my points apply (as alternative options).

Lucidity wrote:

strager wrote:

Lucidity wrote:

I am leaning towards you being a fake Cop though. You just seem too uninformed to be one :/ Examples are here and here.

Maybe so, but I'm giving SFG the benefit of the doubt here, for today. Again, the Cops would be better alive D2 than dead.

:\ She keeps defending you. You keep defending her. Get a room guys ;p

I'm defending her (really, I'm just saying I'm not voting for her; she's not cleared any more than anyone else) because she claimed Cop. Only she and LS and some lucky spectators know if there's truth in the claim, but I don't want to (help) make the mistake of lynching a Cop.

Lucidity wrote:

strager wrote:

Lucidity wrote:

Here (and following posts) she is fishing for info on what a Cop (Her role) can do. Why not ask about it in a PM instead of giving it to the Mafia in the thread? Unless she's Mafia looking for info?

I did the same thing, to a greater degree, even.

Horrid defence this time though! You did the same thing and admitted that it was to the detriment of the town. Why does it make it all better if she does it?

How does it make it worse, as you imply in your original post I quote?

Lucidity wrote:

Furthermore you were trying to find out about roles in general. SFG was fishing for info on the Cop role. The role she claims to be. A role she can safely enquire about via PM without giving the Mafia valuable information. That's not on.

Orly?
viewtopic.php?p=167122#p167122
viewtopic.php?p=166987#p166987
viewtopic.php?p=167144#p167144
viewtopic.php?p=167158#p167158

Then I kinda stop (viewtopic.php?p=167192#p167192).

Lucidity wrote:

strager wrote:

Echo wrote:

A wrong guess at the game setup can easily be disastrous for town. We're wasting precious time on such things.

I agree, which is why I stopped myself. I don't think it's THAT much of a risk that we would lose because of a guess/hunch/whatever, as we have at least three Days to catch the Mafia (assuming there's only one).

Justifying "guessing" with more guessing? That's a nono. We should try to work with what we've been given as much as possible. Any guesses should not be given TOO much weight.

Wha? I agree with your last sentence, which is why I said "I don't think it's THAT much of a risk that we would lose because of a guess/hunch/whatever [...]."

Donner, bbl.

edit: sniped

That's not true - if your role had been stated as "Night Cop" you'd've said you were "Night Cop"; I don't see why you wouldn't have said "Twilight Cop" if your role had said so.

Even though this is setup speculation, I'm sure everyone here would agree 3 cops doesn't sound quite right

edit: Post aimed at strager.

Saa~ Did you ONLY ask about Cops? Sure the majority was focused on it, but it wasn't an exclusive interest. I'm going to bed now, so I'm not going to reread the thread again to find counter examples -.-

You're missing the point though. SFG claimed to be a Cop. You didn't. She could PM LadySuburu to her heart's content and find out everything she possibly wanted. Her role PM would probably have specified most of the things she wanted to know anyway. The point is it's suspicious of a Cop to be so clueless~Throwing around exactly how her role works in the thread is also very risky...

Echo wrote:

Even though this is setup speculation, I'm sure everyone here would agree 3 cops doesn't sound quite right

Actually I think strager's initial "claim" was a joke (in this post he does not say he's a cop)
I just realized this as well, I even had an entire post about how strager and SFG were the mafia, then I read that and now it's just SFG

Wait so only adam and SFG officially claimed cop now?

Can I remind you that Night 0 (or Twilight in this case) is a part of the game - it's a chance to discuss in advance? I won't accept anyone saying that they were "just joking around" in T0.

About my claim, I thought I clarified here: viewtopic.php?p=167805#p167805

strager wrote:

http://osu.ppy.sh/forum/viewtopic.php?p=166463#p166463
T'was a joke.

I was going with the "re-roleclaim if you're serious" thing by Derekku, which everyone else followed. (Hmm, what did Echo call that again?)

Lucidity wrote:

Saa~ Did you ONLY ask about Cops? Sure the majority was focused on it, but it wasn't an exclusive interest. I'm going to bed now, so I'm not going to reread the thread again to find counter examples -.-

I don't see how that matters. If SFG asked a question here about another role, would that change your mind about pointing SFG's question out? No.

Lucidity wrote:

You're missing the point though. SFG claimed to be a Cop. You didn't. She could PM LadySuburu to her heart's content and find out everything she possibly wanted. Her role PM would probably have specified most of the things she wanted to know anyway. The point is it's suspicious of a Cop to be so clueless~Throwing around exactly how her role works in the thread is also very risky...

It's risky, but there are many possibilities, including:

1. She was fitting in with the questions I was asking.
2. She didn't realize she was making her question public and possibly helping the Mafia.
3. She did realize she was making her question public and was trying to help the Town (and perhaps adam, though I don't think the question she asked applies to him).
4. She was trying to expand upon my previous question about investigating dead people. (Possible way to find her sanity or land a useful investigation.)

SFG posted that the first of these was the case. I'm inclined to believe the last point was part of asking, too, though.

Wow, I just realized I missed a few posts. /me reads.

Nothing to comment on, though I'm slightly less believing SFG now, to the point where I'm not not going to vote for her today. Still, I'd like to keep a claimed Cop alive until D2.

Echo wrote:

Wait so only adam and SFG officially claimed cop now?

Can I remind you that Night 0 (or Twilight in this case) is a part of the game - it's a chance to discuss in advance? I won't accept anyone saying that they were "just joking around" in T0.

i think he was trying to start discussion, as were most of us. its super hard to scumhunt people if theres no discussion going on

edit: fix'd

Saturos-fangirl wrote:

its super hard to scumpaint people if theres no discussion going on

Is there a need to scumpaint if someone is already painted? Unless you're the Mafia, of course.

strager wrote:

Saturos-fangirl wrote:

its super hard to scumpaint people if theres no discussion going on

Is there a need to scumpaint if someone is already painted? Unless you're the Mafia, of course.

oh whoops thats supposed to say scumhunt sry

Saturos-fangirl wrote:

strager wrote:

Saturos-fangirl wrote:

its super hard to scumpaint people if theres no discussion going on

Is there a need to scumpaint if someone is already painted? Unless you're the Mafia, of course.

oh whoops thats supposed to say scumhunt sry

You've been saying 'scumpaint' a while. Maybe you've been playing and watching Pasonia play CM too long?

strager wrote:

Saturos-fangirl wrote:

You've been saying 'scumpaint' a while. Maybe you've been playing and watching Pasonia play CM too long?

..? a while? thats the first time ive mentioned it and accidental at that

Saturos-fangirl wrote:

strager wrote:

Saturos-fangirl wrote:

You've been saying 'scumpaint' a while. Maybe you've been playing and watching Pasonia play CM too long?

..? a while? thats the first time ive mentioned it and accidental at that

My bad, you only said it once before: viewtopic.php?p=166970#p166970

Saturos-fangirl wrote:

Lucidity, Echo, adam, i want you guys to start talking so i can scumpaint people

strager wrote:

My bad, you only said it once before: viewtopic.php?p=166970#p166970

Saturos-fangirl wrote:

Lucidity, Echo, adam, i want you guys to start talking so i can scumpaint people

k imma go bang my head against a wall for a while and hopefully knock some intelligence back into it....

strager, why are you feeding SFG a defense?

Echo wrote:

strager, why are you feeding SFG a defense?

its called protecting the cops cus they can investigate people and you cant...unless theres something you arent telling us

Echo wrote:

strager, why are you feeding SFG a defense?

Again, I don't want adam or SFG to be killed D1/N1 so we can have enough investigations. We can lynch adam if he gets a flipped vote D2, find his sanity, and win the game, for example. (If adam is the Mafia, we win anyway.)

I would be doing the same for adam, but he's not talking much or being attacked.

There's no need to defend possible cops? There wasn't any danger - I'm not voting them, I'm just pointing out possible inconsistencies. You guys seem way too jumpy.

Let me ask you a question then - who do you think we should lynch today then?

Echo wrote:

Let me ask you a question then - who do you think we should lynch today then?

No idea, hence me not having a vote yet. No one stands out really.

This map has been deleted on the request of its creator. It is no longer available.