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Newbie Game 15: Rise From The Ashes [Game over!]

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Hika
I ain't hammering that due to wanting to hear bboy.
Afterward, we can hammer her because sulking ain't gonna save your "town" behind at the end of the day.
abraker

-[Jess]- wrote:

So that all my fault for not contribute enough ,I can understand that why it's all happen to me and since I am very terrible at say out of my thoughts
vote:Jess If you want to
Jess, why...

Either you are a scum who now sees no way out
Or you are the second most unfortunate and extremely stupid townie
rEdo
Who's the first one?
B1rd
Dawnsday, I assume.
Hika
Jess takes the cake because she hammered him without explanantion, actually.
-[Jess]-
Sorry for getting emotional
unvote
Sakura
Btw i'd still advise against putting Jess at L-1, she can self-hammer to cut off discussion before we hear from bee.
Topic Starter
Zexion
Votecount 2.7
-[Jess]- [3] - Sakura, B1rd, rEdo (L-2)
Frostings [1] - abraker
rEdo [0] -
Hika [0] -
Sakura [0] -
abraker [0] -
B1rd [0] -
beeboy123 [0] -

No Lynch [0] -
Not Voting [4] - Frostings, beeboy123, Hika, -[Jess]-
With 8 alive, it's 5 to lynch.


Deadline for Day 2 has been extended by 24 hours!
Day 2 ends on Feb 24th, 22:00 UTC.
Frostings
Prod Dodge
Been busy all day :(
beeboy123

rEdo wrote:

Beeboy, explain why do you think I'm conftown. Tell me who's scum.
Because you would have been CC'd by now if you were scum. A bullet proof has no reason to not CC and I don't think a doc would value there action over lynching conf scum.

B1rd wrote:

Firstly, I think beeboy is suspicious. The first reason maybe isn't objective but it's been a personal tell of mine that have achieved results in the past: everyone usually jokes at the start, but when someone continues a jokes past its worth, or continues to act not serious, that is an indicator that that person is scum. And that's what he did with the whole 'I'm mason' thing. The other reason is that he pretty much was a fence sitter the whole first day, and the second day he hasn't done much except jump on bandwagons of already suspicious people. This seems like typical scummy behaviour.
I said I wasn't a mason 16 posts into the game so I didn't really do what you were saying at all.
I mean I am pretty sure I said Dawnsday was town all of day 1 so I am not exactly sure what I fence sat on.
And all I have done this day phase was the vote counter claim and ask people questions. I don't see how voting a counter claim is scummy and I don't know why you are referring to bandwagons as a plural when I haven't voted anyone else.
Like literally nothing you said is true.

-[Jess]- wrote:

About "now I see why dawn is scum"
It means nothing that he trust a people who only said and read it as town,I don't know how to said and my mind is unclear.I thought he was in L-2 so I voted to push him.
That all
I'd vote Jess for this considering she declared intent to hammer earlier so idk why she would suddenly think Dawnsday is at L-2.

B1rd wrote:

I'm wondering why beeboy suddenly VL/A'd right after Sakura in exactly the same way, it could just be a coincidence but it could also him buying himself time to think of way to get out of the heat he's in.
This is against the rules.
beeboy123
Uh anyway I kinda suck at catching up I think that was everything directed at me?
Anyway I'll post my reads in a bit.
beeboy123
Hika - could be scum. I don't get the whole obbession with not wanting to be copped. The only time I have actually seen this happen with a town player before was when that player was a commuter and didn't want to claim ascetic cause they thought they could block a NK.

Sakura - I am pretty sure Sakura is town here. Pretty sure she would be more apathetic if she was scum in this game after a decently sized break from mafia. And as scum I find her reads to feel more like attempts at pushing people and doing things (like her read on me in musical mafia in that 1/2 day before she replaced out) rather then actual attempts at solving the game.

abraker - I don't think abraker is actually trying to push people for someone with such a high volume of posts. It is a scum tell for me when people have such a high volume of posts without ever really pushing people or changing the pace of the game. so he could also be scum.

-[Jess]- - I literally don't understand how Jess would think Dawnsday wasn't at L-1 when she declared intent on an earlier page.

Frostings - I think Frosting defending Hika isn't something scum would do, it's a defense that I'd imagine would bring on more questions and attention he wouldn't want. He is also generating content and moving the game forward so he is prolly town.

B1rd - I think B1rd's attempts of solving the game and the fact he is push me in general to develop his read is pretty town but I also think his read on me is total garbage which evens that out.
beeboy123
Scum team is Jess + abraker/Hika
beeboy123
I'll vote Jess if no one has any problems in a decent chunk of hours. (like tomorrow morning
Hika
nice try
Hika
also my thoughts didn't change even after bboy' post sadly. So we're gonna wait until D3.
Sakura

Hika wrote:

Also heads up, I'll have a list of reads when I get more posts from bboy.
Still waiting
Hika
yeah you can wait I'm at work
Hika
Buuuut for now I'm gonna say scum team is probably you and frosty
Hika
And btw I will have a better confirmation on that day 3
Sakura

Sakura wrote:

Hika wrote:

Keep pushing me as not town and I might have to vote you because you'll just suddenly turn to scummy for me :^)
what's with the sudden OMGUS threat? Am I also going to suddenly turn to scummy for you as well? :^)
lol called it.
Hika
stuff happens
B1rd

beeboy123 wrote:

B1rd wrote:

I'm wondering why beeboy suddenly VL/A'd right after Sakura in exactly the same way, it could just be a coincidence but it could also him buying himself time to think of way to get out of the heat he's in.
This is against the rules.
I'm not gonna read/reply to everything at this point in time, but I've read every rule, and there is nothing that remotely pertains to this.
beeboy123
4.9 I'd be loopholing the prod system by abusing VLA.
Sakura
Faking V/LA is against the rules yes. bee wouldnt do something like that.
Frostings

Hika wrote:

Buuuut for now I'm gonna say scum team is probably you and frosty
lol wtf where did this come from
abraker
Beeboy reads as town for me. Idk why a scum would want to fake a role to be questioned throughout the game later. That will be a handicap from the start. Also dawn claimed the fake role and turned town, so I can believe Beeboy is town despite the fake claim.

I always fear that scum can be good at acting. I tend to ignore statements "scum wouldn't do x" or "x is not something scum would do" because of this.
Frostings
how are people STILL going on about the mason claim
Frostings
Also I don't really like where the reads are going
Many are automatically assuming Jess is scum
While there's obviously good reason to think that, I don't think anyone here can actually read her all that well
The ones reading her as scum are probably unprepared for a potential but unsurprising townflip from Jess and it's messing up a lot of the scumpartner reads
I would really like to take this game on in Day 3, but if Jess flips town and scum's not afk then it'd be MyLo on D3 already
abraker
Also a thought.

If we are in a setup with a doctor, then unless the player protected self, then the player should 100% know the player they protected is townie
abraker
An analysis in changes of town reads before and after the 1st day should hint whether rEdo is really bulletproof townie or not.
If the analysis does work, we might figure out a scum, a doctor, and a townie sEdo is not bulletproof townie
abraker
forgot "if" between townie and the sEdo typo
Sakura
Doctor's cant protect themselves generally, but that's 100% the case on matrix 6 (and newbie games).
Why would a doctor fakeclaim 1shot BP? if rEdo's scum then he should've been counter claimed already, scum know who they shot (unless they no killed which is all sorts of wtf).
abraker
Hmm it didnt occure to me that if rEdo was fake claiming, then the actual bulletproof townie must have counter claimed by now since that townie has nothing loose (that townie would live when shot)

Alright so rEdo is confirmed town then?
Sakura

abraker wrote:

Hmm it didnt occure to me that if rEdo was fake claiming, then the actual bulletproof townie must have counter claimed by now since that townie has nothing loose (that townie would live when shot)

Alright so rEdo is confirmed town then?
or the townie's a doctor (doctor can CC 1shot BP since they cant be together in the same setup).
rEdo's indeed conf town until someone CCs, and if someone flips town doctor or BP then... rEdo's pretty much confscum.

But i highly doubt anyone wouldnt have CC'd yet, and i'd take any CC to rEdo at this point as a scum claim because they've had all the time in the world to CC.
Frostings
it doesn't make sense to fakeclaim anything at the start of Day 2 after the D1 and N1 events whether you're scum or town. rEdo is 99% telling the truth
Sakura
It is a posibility. Denying possibilities will drive you away from the truth.
While i disagree that scum wouldnt fake claim at that point, i do think that town would've CC'd by now regardless.
Frostings
I have a townread on Hika. rEdo is conftown, and I'm getting good vibes from beeboy and Sakura

By PoE scum is among Jess abraker and B1rd from my PoV
Sakura

abraker wrote:

I always fear that scum can be good at acting. I tend to ignore statements "scum wouldn't do x" or "x is not something scum would do" because of this.
^
By the way this is a good mindset to have, I remembered GIF mentioning something like that in lovers mafia, which im re-reading right now to compare Hika's scumgame from there to Hika's game here, just in case.
But when i came across this: p/4504905 and the followups it reminded me of what you said.
Sakura

Hika wrote:

nah if I was scum I wouldn't have voted

keep it in mind

Hika wrote:

I'm live on a computer in a approximately 2 hours max.
I'll answer this for you shortly.

Mind you, the not voting thing is a 50% thing.
I kinda want to revisit these statements after re-reading lovers mafia.
For starters the first statement turns out to be a lie, the 2nd statement completely invalidates the first with the 50% thing, since then it's not a meta tell, so why was it mentioned in the first place?

Hika wrote:

literally said I don't care

I'm VT
believe it or not, if you're surprised I'm sorry
wasting an investigative check on me is pointless, and to a doctor, it's pointless to protect me
I don't do anything but vote. If me not being VT doesn't help then sorry but I literally claimed my role D1, all before this soooo
This also feels all kinds of wrong to me, i know bee already mentioned about hika being worried about investigatives on her, I don't see why it's pointless to protect her if she's town.

Then there's all her soft-defense / soft-attack switching with Jess and never commiting to either one, which is how some people feel with their scum partner specially if it's Jess.

The difference tho, her posts seemed to lack more dedication in lovers mafia, like less fire, could be the case of a different partner i guess (GIF was pretty much doing all the work back then), but it's something that could be alignment related.
rEdo
Since I'm gonna get NK'd tonight, it's time for a proper readlist. But hey, I'm gonna pretty much reinvent the wheel here.
  1. Sakura. I can't imagine her being scum. She seems to be genuinely trying to solve the game.
  2. B1rd. I'm getting nice town read vibes coming from B1rd. At first I was suspicious of him being scum, but that changed over time.
  3. Frostings' posts so far express a logic that's almost 1-1 to mine, literally nothing he wrote is something I don't agree with. Since I believe I have a town thinking, Frostings should be town as well. What is more, I can't really any arguments confirming he's scum.
  4. Hika seems to be sort of overprotective when it comes to herself, but that's pretty much how she played in the other games. That thing with her counter-claiming me as a VT seems to be a huge flaw in logic in townie's thinking. Hey, did you see that word? Yes, the one you're thinking of!
  5. Jess. Do I have to comment on this one?
  6. abraker seems to be a guy who incoherently tries to softpush certain people which actually are my townreads (Frostings, Hika), which of course means two things: he's either scum or I'm completely wrong at reading this game. I'm not convinced to his words though, especially considering he's been doing lots of posting that's not even necessary for the game to progress. I'd also like to note his inactivity on day 1 where his vote has already been placed on a town player and that haven't changed every since.
  7. beeboy. For some reason most people (myself included) assumed from the beginning of the game that beeboy is town. I've seen this happen way too many times (especially in the Hoenn Mafia) - a scum player posts nothing but accurate analysis at beginning of the day 1 and woo, he gets towncred for that. I have more reasons to believe he's scum than to believe he's town.
I've considered a No-Lynch for today, but that would mean just me getting NK-d, and that's literally no information for town. I believe the safest bet right here is Jess, even though I have a feeling that she's gonna townflip. That self-vote thing seems to be an AtE used by bad scum players, but I don't think she's even capable of doing that, considering all of her games... >_>"

I see the scumteam in {Jess, beeboy, {Frostings | abraker}}. Jess is put in this set for complete safety, to be honest.

Unvote
Vote: beeboy123

I'd like everyone to rethink the Jess lynch. I started to doubt it's necessary.
rEdo

rEdo wrote:

I see the scumteam in {Jess, beeboy, {Frostings | abraker}}. Jess is put in this set for complete safety, to be honest.
Let me corrent myself: {Jess, beeboy, {Hika | abraker}}. I just reminded myself of the fact that beeboy didn't even question Hika's counterclaim to me and voted me right off the bat.
abraker

rEdo wrote:

. I'm not convinced to his words though, especially considering he's been doing lots of posting that's not even necessary for the game to progress. I'd also like to note his inactivity on day 1 where his vote has already been placed on a town player and that haven't changed every since.
Well now that I have this mafia topic open on my phone and computer and I am subbed to the topic, I can't really miss it. My activity mirrors that ofthe rest of OT. Though I started shitposts slightly more after Jess recent posts just because I got intoxicated by the stupidity (couldn't take it seriously). I just chose my vote at random on day 1 based on judgement on an avatar and remained on Dawn because his stupidity mislead everyone including me to vote for him. I already told everyone why I am voting on Frostings and even challenged someone to argue my vote which nobody did.
rEdo

abraker wrote:

Well now that I have this mafia topic open on my phone and computer and I am subbed to the topic, I can't really miss it. My activity mirrors that ofthe rest of OT. Though I started shitposts slightly more after Jess recent posts just because I got intoxicated by the stupidity (couldn't take it seriously). I just chose my vote at random on day 1 based on judgement on an avatar and remained on Dawn because his stupidity mislead everyone including me to vote for him. I already told everyone why I am voting on Frostings and even challenged someone to argue my vote which nobody did.
By OT you mean Off-Topic?

You have never explained why your vote on Dawnsday stayed on him, though. At least I can't read that from your ISO instead of that one post where you pointed his flaws concerning him not being a new player. But that was more of a direct attack rather the in-game one.

Your vote on Frostings was indeed sort of ignored by the other players, which is worrying, but Frostings himself pretty much answered your every doubt and you haven't properly replied to him ever since.

afk for ~4-6h ive got classes
Sakura

rEdo wrote:

[*]Hika-Snip- That thing with her counter-claiming me as a VT seems to be a huge flaw in logic in townie's thinking. Hey, did you see that word? Yes, the one you're thinking of!
What do you think of my theory that she saw Mafia Goon on the vertical line and thought it'd counterclaim you? Makes more sense to me since there's no VT on either line.
Hika

beeboy123 wrote:

4.9 I'd be loopholing the prod system by abusing VLA.
This is why I can't pin point you both being scum because he would've probably said something against it. He meaning zexion.
abraker

rEdo wrote:

By OT you mean Off-Topic?
yea

rEdo wrote:

You have never explained why your vote on Dawnsday stayed on him, though
I just did?

abraker wrote:

I just chose my vote at random on day 1 based on judgement on an avatar and remained on Dawn because his stupidity mislead everyone including me to vote for him.
Or are you referring to me saying anything back then and not now?

rEdo wrote:

but Frostings himself pretty much answered your every doubt and you haven't properly replied to him ever since.
Because I am not sure what to reply with. Even if he partially refuted my arguements, I have nothing of such sort for other players yet. My vote remains unless somebody shows correlations, coincidence or evidence between actions and mafia and demonstrates the other choice(s) correlate, coincide, or are evident of actions and townies.

I don't move unless a strong force makes me move
Hika
Also Sakura, for my defense statement, or "defense" statement towards Jess.

I just thought it would be fair if she could play with all of us, however, her consistent "I'll post tomorrow" or self voting things don't generate anything but toxic and anti town moves for actual town if she IS town. Simply by asking everyone to shift their attention to others during the witch hunt on Jess helps us generate conversation for the other things that actually do matter. I'm sure we ALL, rather scum or town, would be okay with lynching her, simply because we have so much content and actually put effort in this game.
abraker
Also hold on. Either I forgot where Frostings refuted my vote or you are pulling my leg. I wouldn't be complaining that nobody is questioning my vote if at least one opposed it.

abraker wrote:

Frostings wrote:

People were questioning my vote and so I explained it after people already had votes on him for similar reasons that I had
I must have missed something. Who was questioning you?
I never got an answer to this iirc
B1rd

beeboy123 wrote:

I said I wasn't a mason 16 posts into the game so I didn't really do what you were saying at all.
I mean I am pretty sure I said Dawnsday was town all of day 1 so I am not exactly sure what I fence sat on.
And all I have done this day phase was the vote counter claim and ask people questions. I don't see how voting a counter claim is scummy and I don't know why you are referring to bandwagons as a plural when I haven't voted anyone else.
Like literally nothing you said is true.
Fence sitting is the wrong word. However, a lot of the time scum usually like to have one on a bandwagon, one off it. And like rEdo mentions, they also like to get town cred from accurate analysis at the start, and they don't have any incentive to push a lynch rather than just makes themselves look like townies. You fit both these bills. And what have you done to make me think you're town? You've done pretty much nothing in the way of serious scumhunting, besides floating around and asking a few questions.

So a lot of people so far seem to be townreading beeboy, but I'd like some more explanation of this rather than just "good vibes".
Sakura

abraker wrote:

My vote remains unless somebody shows correlations, coincidence or evidence between actions and mafia and demonstrates the other choice(s) correlate, coincide, or are evident of actions and townies.

I don't move unless a strong force makes me move
Umm

abraker wrote:

Beeboy reads as town for me. Idk why a scum would want to fake a role to be questioned throughout the game later. That will be a handicap from the start. Also dawn claimed the fake role and turned town, so I can believe Beeboy is town despite the fake claim.

I always fear that scum can be good at acting. I tend to ignore statements "scum wouldn't do x" or "x is not something scum would do" because of this.
This was kinda late.
Hika
bboy + frosty
or bboy + Jess

are my corrected scumteam reads.

Just currently reading interactions thus far and hopefully soon, I can re-read thread!
I also have a doctor's appt around 4pm EST so pls bear with me guys! I think I have the flu ):
B1rd

Sakura wrote:

My current main question is "Does anyone have any reason to believe Jess is town?"
I already got your opinions on Hika.
Not really, and since my strongest townreads were the first ones to vote her that gives me a good feeling about a jess lynch. And I think that's the best we're gonna get at this point, town is really disjointed at the moment with everyone having different reads, I imagine it's a playground for the scum to sway the vote in any direction they please, if we wasn't voting jess.
Sakura
My TR on bee has been weakening as of late, but part of it is paranoia coz me and beeboy usually tend to not agree on townreads, and his latest reads list seems to mirror mine more or less.
(I had already mentioned TRs on him, b1rd and Frosty, and with the rEdo CC out of the way that would make rEdo town, leading to a PoE of Hika/Jess/abraker)
I was half expecting him to fight me on the Jess lynch and say Jess is town or something.
Sakura

Hika wrote:

bboy + frosty
or bboy + Jess

are my corrected scumteam reads.

Just currently reading interactions thus far and hopefully soon, I can re-read thread!
I also have a doctor's appt around 4pm EST so pls bear with me guys! I think I have the flu ):
What happened with your SR on me?
Hika
I actually deduced it from your VLA.
you both can't go at the same time, zexion would've said smth about it.

But out of you and bboy, is suspect bboy is scummier than you.
It's just, I haven't seen very many interactions with you and frosty to make me believe that you both are townies.
Sakura
Oh i msread corrected as "current".
I still would like to know what made you change your mind on me.
beeboy123

rEdo wrote:

rEdo wrote:

I see the scumteam in {Jess, beeboy, {Frostings | abraker}}. Jess is put in this set for complete safety, to be honest.
Let me corrent myself: {Jess, beeboy, {Hika | abraker}}. I just reminded myself of the fact that beeboy didn't even question Hika's counterclaim to me and voted me right off the bat.
Ok so as scum Hika would basically have no reason to commit to a counter claim on your bullet proof.
It isn't like you are a full bullet proof or a cop with a doctor still alive (literally anything that would be worth dying to get lynched) scum could literally just kill you N2 if you are a bullet proof and there is nothing anyone could do about it so I just made the assumption that Hika was the town in the situation in addition to the fact she sort of sorted some kind of PR.

Was I correct, no but to say I didn't question it when in my mind there was literally nothing to question is kinda silly.
Hika
I ninja you silly willy
Hika
Also sorry Sakura, I meant to say I suspect bboy* not is suspect bboy.
beeboy123

rEdo wrote:

[*]beeboy. For some reason most people (myself included) assumed from the beginning of the game that beeboy is town. I've seen this happen way too many times (especially in the Hoenn Mafia) - a scum player posts nothing but accurate analysis at beginning of the day 1 and woo, he gets towncred for that. I have more reasons to believe he's scum than to believe he's town.[/list]
.
I would argue my reads are more then just factual analysis but meh.
beeboy123
vote: jess
anyway I said I would do this so ima do this.
B1rd
Also Sakura, do you actually think Hika is scum? Because if you have a strong case, that's all well and good. But if you're just going to relentlessly pursue a small chance that she's scum when most others don't think so, I feel like that's just gonna break up the cohesion of town, especially when you're one of the most conftown at the moment and could take a strong leading role in scumhunting.
Hika
Jess on L-1 right?
I can hammer if everyone's ready to end the day in a few hours.
beeboy123
Jess is on L-2 cause rEdo is voting me now.
Hika
That's right. Jess unvoted herself too.
rEdo

Hika wrote:

Jess on L-1 right?
I can hammer if everyone's ready to end the day in a few hours.
I'm 90% sure Jess is gonna flip town due to her going emotional and voting herself. That's not what I've seen earlier, and I don't think she would do that.

I'll catch up (especially answer Sakura) in a few moments, sort of busy with uni work now.
rEdo
Frosty post something I know you're here
Sakura

B1rd wrote:

Also Sakura, do you actually think Hika is scum? Because if you have a strong case, that's all well and good. But if you're just going to relentlessly pursue a small chance that she's scum when most others don't think so, I feel like that's just gonna break up the cohesion of town, especially when you're one of the most conftown at the moment and could take a strong leading role in scumhunting.
I did something like that back on Sunday.
But all people said is that her "townslip" made it impossible for her to be scum.
At the top of that post also showed a potential "scumslip" in the form of CCing as Mafia Goon.

I'm not 100% sure on her being scum, if anything it's more like... 50-60%, what i do know is that players always do something for a reason, whether the reason is subconcious or concious could heavily lead to alignment relevant information, which is why i still wonder "why did she CC as VT, when there wasn't a VT on either of the row or the column".
The same could be said about her constant rejecting of PRs using their abilities on her, and her false meta call that was later invalidated anyway before anyone investigated it in depth.
Frostings
I'm fine with the Jess lynch, but I also do have a feeling she might flip town
I'm afraid though if we vote anyone else and we mislynch, we'll eventually be stuck in Lylo with Jess alive, and if she's town, scum can easily play the "Lynch Jess instead of me" card for the win
Frostings

abraker wrote:

abraker wrote:

must have missed something. Who was questioning you?
I never got an answer to this iirc
Dawnsday and rEdo were questioning my vote, but what prompted me to explain it was when he got to L-1
Sakura
This may sound weird, but literally the only reason i want Jess lynched is because, 1) she did a scummy move and should be punished for it, she could still be scum after all. 2) She's literally not contributing anything. 3) She being here is frustrating me to no end because i literally can't tell with her posts what her alignment might be, and she still has potential to flip scum.

I've already avoided joining games with jess on them before because people give her a pass for BS like this.

I feel like if we give her a pass after what she did she's just going to do it again, she could be scum AtEing, she could be town AtEing, and i dont fricken know, but if she's town and we encourage that kind of play, who's to say she won't do the same as scum, and no one would bat an eye on it.

tl;dr: Jess is just frustrating to try to read, and people in here like to give her a pass for doing all the scummy stuff she does, in MS she would already been WotC'd or even WotM'd out of games or people would just simply lynch her for things like that.
Frostings
Also I briefly skimmed over the posts again
When I townread abraker over his tryhard diagrams, in retrospect it could actually be an easy way to convince others to vote the wrong people if town is dumb like me :)
Sakura

Frostings wrote:

Also I briefly skimmed over the posts again
When I townread abraker over his tryhard diagrams, in retrospect it could actually be an easy way to convince others to vote the wrong people if town is dumb like me :)
I believe i've said several times that Effort =/= Town
B1rd
I haven't played a whole lot with Jess, so I can't really comment on her meta play, but I'd say there's a fair chance she's scum. And at the end of the day, I'd rather mislynch Jess than leave her alive and mislynch another townie. I'd be on board with lynching beeboy instead if other people with more experience have good townreads on Jess, but I can't really see that happening at this point.

Sakura wrote:

I did something like that back on Sunday.
But all people said is that her "townslip" made it impossible for her to be scum.
At the top of that post also showed a potential "scumslip" in the form of CCing as Mafia Goon.

I'm not 100% sure on her being scum, if anything it's more like... 50-60%, what i do know is that players always do something for a reason, whether the reason is subconcious or concious could heavily lead to alignment relevant information, which is why i still wonder "why did she CC as VT, when there wasn't a VT on either of the row or the column".
The same could be said about her constant rejecting of PRs using their abilities on her, and her false meta call that was later invalidated anyway before anyone investigated it in depth.
I'll admit I haven't followed your analysis 100%, but from my point of view it just seems like it'd be unlikely for scum to do such a thing and cause a scene like Hika did. Scum tend to be more cautious and think out their moves, so I think it's unlikely that they'd do something like that.
Hika
She's probably not scum but I'm comfortable with a lynch on Jess.
Just the safest lynch on the table because it does eliminate some of the late game WIFOM possibilities if she's left here.
rEdo

Sakura wrote:

What do you think of my theory that she saw Mafia Goon on the vertical line and thought it'd counterclaim you? Makes more sense to me since there's no VT on either line.
I can't really see it happening. I believe she just thought that she's the vanilla townie and that it counter-claims me. A flaw in logic.

abraker wrote:

rEdo wrote:

You have never explained why your vote on Dawnsday stayed on him, though
I just did?

abraker wrote:

I just chose my vote at random on day 1 based on judgement on an avatar and remained on Dawn because his stupidity mislead everyone including me to vote for him.
Or are you referring to me saying anything back then and not now?
That's not good enough of a reason for me. You haven't stayed why he's stupid, you just went along with everything people said beforehand.

beeboy123 wrote:

Ok so as scum Hika would basically have no reason to commit to a counter claim on your bullet proof.
It isn't like you are a full bullet proof or a cop with a doctor still alive (literally anything that would be worth dying to get lynched) scum could literally just kill you N2 if you are a bullet proof and there is nothing anyone could do about it so I just made the assumption that Hika was the town in the situation in addition to the fact she sort of sorted some kind of PR.

Was I correct, no but to say I didn't question it when in my mind there was literally nothing to question is kinda silly.
Yes, I know. My point here was that you knew Hika's doing a townie move and that I got hit tonight, and you knew I survived because of my PR. So hey, since you know I'm conftown, let's use that counterclaim thing to actually start a wagon on me not only to get me lynched, but perhaps Hika on the following day as well.

beeboy123 wrote:

I would argue my reads are more then just factual analysis but meh.
Well, since you know who's town and scum. If you were a vanilla townie, could you get any other source for your reads than factual analysis?

beeboy123 wrote:

vote: jess
anyway I said I would do this so ima do this.
Play-safe card. Nice. If Jess gets lynched today and flips town, you're literally confscum to me.

---

Unfortunately I have to agree with Sakura on the fact that Jess' alignment is something we literally can't solve in any other way than lynching her. Even though like literally 3 people (myself included) she's about to flip town.
rEdo

rEdo wrote:

Unfortunately I have to agree with Sakura on the fact that Jess' alignment is something we literally can't solve in any other way than lynching her. Even though like literally 3 people (myself included) said she's about to flip town.
Sakura
What im interested in is knowing what makes you say she's gonna flip town.
Sakura
Because time is running low
Hika
I have a feeling she's just playing regular jess?
Either way if she flips scum or town, you can't really link her to anyone else lol

her scumbuddy probably won't even defend her
Sakura
Also im gonna drop my pursuit of Hika in favor of cohesion, i did notice some differences in her play in Lovers mafia, i just dont understand why people think she townslipped, but since a lot of my townreads (Frosty, B1rd, rEdo) seem to think so i'll let it go as im starting to feel like im beating a dead horse here. But if she does turn up being scum, expect a word of "I told you so!" from me at endgame.

This puts me in here:

Town:
rEdo
B1rd ^
Frostings ^

Leaning Town:
beeboy V
Hika ^

Leftovers:
abraker
Jess

(the arrows just indicate changes across my reads from their last position)
If Jess is town then im going wrong somewhere.
rEdo

Sakura wrote:

What im interested in is knowing what makes you say she's gonna flip town.
That self-vote thing triggered me to thinking she's frustrated that we scumread her so she self-voted.
Sakura

rEdo wrote:

Sakura wrote:

What im interested in is knowing what makes you say she's gonna flip town.
That self-vote thing triggered me to thinking she's frustrated that we scumread her so she self-voted.
Do you have reasons to believe she wouldnt do this as scum?
rEdo

Sakura wrote:

Do you have reasons to believe she wouldnt do this as scum?
I don't want to be mean, but to be honest I don't believe she's intelligent enough to pull that off xd
Sakura
She's basically done 3 pro-scum actions:
1) Hammering a player without letting them claim.
2) Self-voting which muddles VCA and if town, she's literally voting the only player that is conftown to her (herself)
3) Not contributing anything overall.

Sure, 2 could have been caused by frustration, but it's Jess we're talking about.
Sakura
I mean as far as i recall, she's done the self voting thing before, why wouldnt it become a scum tactic.

Now let's assume for the sake of argument that you're right and she's town.
What happens then if we mislynch today, even if scum dont pull a lynch on her at XyLo, im worried she'll vote wrong, i mean, she already did it D1 ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
B1rd
While we do have time, why do you two have a town read on Frostings? I had a scum read on him before, and I haven't analysed frosty's recent posts, but him being scum is still a possibility IMO.
Hika
Dude frosty scum is soooo possible.
Sakura

B1rd wrote:

While we do have time, why do you two have a town read on Frostings? I had a scum read on him before, and I haven't analysed frosty's recent posts, but him being scum is still a possibility IMO.
Everything is always a possibility, I just think the chances are very unlikely. And my read on him comes entirely from Experience, specially coz i've been in his crosshairs several times in the past on games.
Hika
Also, it's just jess, Sakura. If she turns out town, whoops.
If not then okay; we will just figure something out.
Sakura
Literally the only reason for people to say she's town is

"OMG SHE SELF VOTED SHE'S SO TOTES FRUSTRATED AND TOWN"

I know the deal trust me, it's a strategy i used to use too, and no it shouldn't be encouraged.
abraker

Sakura wrote:

B1rd wrote:

While we do have time, why do you two have a town read on Frostings? I had a scum read on him before, and I haven't analysed frosty's recent posts, but him being scum is still a possibility IMO.
Everything is always a possibility, I just think the chances are very unlikely. And my read on him comes entirely from Experience, specially coz i've been in his crosshairs several times in the past on games.
Your defence of him including experience is starting to be a weak arguements for me. More the reason a fellow scum is protecting scum. Like you seem too defensive of him.
abraker
If Jess flips town, you are and Frosty will be in my watch list
Sakura

abraker wrote:

If Jess flips town, you are and Frosty will be in my watch list
We've been on your watch list for a while. What's new?
abraker
To be clear, it's as if the subtle mentioning of "Frosty might be scum" sets off a "I know he's not from experience" trigger
abraker
It's starting to wet off red flags for me
abraker
*set
Sakura
I mean i have a hard time explaining my townread on Frosty
Just like people have a hard time explaining why they think Jess will flip town from the self vote despite it being null at best.

Havent you ever heard about gut?
abraker
I play gut only on first day when there is nothing to go by. I will need find something that doesn't exist if you want me to play by "gut".
Failure to explain something leads to suspicion
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