I'm not gonna read/reply to everything at this point in time, but I've read every rule, and there is nothing that remotely pertains to this.beeboy123 wrote:
This is against the rules.B1rd wrote:
I'm wondering why beeboy suddenly VL/A'd right after Sakura in exactly the same way, it could just be a coincidence but it could also him buying himself time to think of way to get out of the heat he's in.
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Newbie Game 15: Rise From The Ashes [Game over!]
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4.9 I'd be loopholing the prod system by abusing VLA.
Faking V/LA is against the rules yes. bee wouldnt do something like that.
lol wtf where did this come fromHika wrote:
Buuuut for now I'm gonna say scum team is probably you and frosty
Beeboy reads as town for me. Idk why a scum would want to fake a role to be questioned throughout the game later. That will be a handicap from the start. Also dawn claimed the fake role and turned town, so I can believe Beeboy is town despite the fake claim.
I always fear that scum can be good at acting. I tend to ignore statements "scum wouldn't do x" or "x is not something scum would do" because of this.
I always fear that scum can be good at acting. I tend to ignore statements "scum wouldn't do x" or "x is not something scum would do" because of this.
Also I don't really like where the reads are going
Many are automatically assuming Jess is scum
While there's obviously good reason to think that, I don't think anyone here can actually read her all that well
The ones reading her as scum are probably unprepared for a potential but unsurprising townflip from Jess and it's messing up a lot of the scumpartner reads
I would really like to take this game on in Day 3, but if Jess flips town and scum's not afk then it'd be MyLo on D3 already
Many are automatically assuming Jess is scum
While there's obviously good reason to think that, I don't think anyone here can actually read her all that well
The ones reading her as scum are probably unprepared for a potential but unsurprising townflip from Jess and it's messing up a lot of the scumpartner reads
I would really like to take this game on in Day 3, but if Jess flips town and scum's not afk then it'd be MyLo on D3 already
Also a thought.
If we are in a setup with a doctor, then unless the player protected self, then the player should 100% know the player they protected is townie
If we are in a setup with a doctor, then unless the player protected self, then the player should 100% know the player they protected is townie
An analysis in changes of town reads before and after the 1st day should hint whether rEdo is really bulletproof townie or not.
If the analysis does work, we might figure out a scum, a doctor, and a townie sEdo is not bulletproof townie
If the analysis does work, we might figure out a scum, a doctor, and a townie sEdo is not bulletproof townie
forgot "if" between townie and the sEdo typo
Doctor's cant protect themselves generally, but that's 100% the case on matrix 6 (and newbie games).
Why would a doctor fakeclaim 1shot BP? if rEdo's scum then he should've been counter claimed already, scum know who they shot (unless they no killed which is all sorts of wtf).
Why would a doctor fakeclaim 1shot BP? if rEdo's scum then he should've been counter claimed already, scum know who they shot (unless they no killed which is all sorts of wtf).
Hmm it didnt occure to me that if rEdo was fake claiming, then the actual bulletproof townie must have counter claimed by now since that townie has nothing loose (that townie would live when shot)
Alright so rEdo is confirmed town then?
Alright so rEdo is confirmed town then?
or the townie's a doctor (doctor can CC 1shot BP since they cant be together in the same setup).abraker wrote:
Hmm it didnt occure to me that if rEdo was fake claiming, then the actual bulletproof townie must have counter claimed by now since that townie has nothing loose (that townie would live when shot)
Alright so rEdo is confirmed town then?
rEdo's indeed conf town until someone CCs, and if someone flips town doctor or BP then... rEdo's pretty much confscum.
But i highly doubt anyone wouldnt have CC'd yet, and i'd take any CC to rEdo at this point as a scum claim because they've had all the time in the world to CC.
it doesn't make sense to fakeclaim anything at the start of Day 2 after the D1 and N1 events whether you're scum or town. rEdo is 99% telling the truth
It is a posibility. Denying possibilities will drive you away from the truth.
While i disagree that scum wouldnt fake claim at that point, i do think that town would've CC'd by now regardless.
While i disagree that scum wouldnt fake claim at that point, i do think that town would've CC'd by now regardless.
I have a townread on Hika. rEdo is conftown, and I'm getting good vibes from beeboy and Sakura
By PoE scum is among Jess abraker and B1rd from my PoV
By PoE scum is among Jess abraker and B1rd from my PoV
^abraker wrote:
I always fear that scum can be good at acting. I tend to ignore statements "scum wouldn't do x" or "x is not something scum would do" because of this.
By the way this is a good mindset to have, I remembered GIF mentioning something like that in lovers mafia, which im re-reading right now to compare Hika's scumgame from there to Hika's game here, just in case.
But when i came across this: p/4504905 and the followups it reminded me of what you said.
Hika wrote:
nah if I was scum I wouldn't have voted
keep it in mind
I kinda want to revisit these statements after re-reading lovers mafia.Hika wrote:
I'm live on a computer in a approximately 2 hours max.
I'll answer this for you shortly.
Mind you, the not voting thing is a 50% thing.
For starters the first statement turns out to be a lie, the 2nd statement completely invalidates the first with the 50% thing, since then it's not a meta tell, so why was it mentioned in the first place?
This also feels all kinds of wrong to me, i know bee already mentioned about hika being worried about investigatives on her, I don't see why it's pointless to protect her if she's town.Hika wrote:
literally said I don't care
I'm VT
believe it or not, if you're surprised I'm sorry
wasting an investigative check on me is pointless, and to a doctor, it's pointless to protect me
I don't do anything but vote. If me not being VT doesn't help then sorry but I literally claimed my role D1, all before this soooo
Then there's all her soft-defense / soft-attack switching with Jess and never commiting to either one, which is how some people feel with their scum partner specially if it's Jess.
The difference tho, her posts seemed to lack more dedication in lovers mafia, like less fire, could be the case of a different partner i guess (GIF was pretty much doing all the work back then), but it's something that could be alignment related.
Since I'm gonna get NK'd tonight, it's time for a proper readlist. But hey, I'm gonna pretty much reinvent the wheel here.
I see the scumteam in {Jess, beeboy, {Frostings | abraker}}. Jess is put in this set for complete safety, to be honest.
Unvote
Vote: beeboy123
I'd like everyone to rethink the Jess lynch. I started to doubt it's necessary.
- Sakura. I can't imagine her being scum. She seems to be genuinely trying to solve the game.
- B1rd. I'm getting nice town read vibes coming from B1rd. At first I was suspicious of him being scum, but that changed over time.
- Frostings' posts so far express a logic that's almost 1-1 to mine, literally nothing he wrote is something I don't agree with. Since I believe I have a town thinking, Frostings should be town as well. What is more, I can't really any arguments confirming he's scum.
- Hika seems to be sort of overprotective when it comes to herself, but that's pretty much how she played in the other games. That thing with her counter-claiming me as a VT seems to be a huge flaw in logic in townie's thinking. Hey, did you see that word? Yes, the one you're thinking of!
- Jess. Do I have to comment on this one?
- abraker seems to be a guy who incoherently tries to softpush certain people which actually are my townreads (Frostings, Hika), which of course means two things: he's either scum or I'm completely wrong at reading this game. I'm not convinced to his words though, especially considering he's been doing lots of posting that's not even necessary for the game to progress. I'd also like to note his inactivity on day 1 where his vote has already been placed on a town player and that haven't changed every since.
- beeboy. For some reason most people (myself included) assumed from the beginning of the game that beeboy is town. I've seen this happen way too many times (especially in the Hoenn Mafia) - a scum player posts nothing but accurate analysis at beginning of the day 1 and woo, he gets towncred for that. I have more reasons to believe he's scum than to believe he's town.
I see the scumteam in {Jess, beeboy, {Frostings | abraker}}. Jess is put in this set for complete safety, to be honest.
Unvote
Vote: beeboy123
I'd like everyone to rethink the Jess lynch. I started to doubt it's necessary.
Let me corrent myself: {Jess, beeboy, {Hika | abraker}}. I just reminded myself of the fact that beeboy didn't even question Hika's counterclaim to me and voted me right off the bat.rEdo wrote:
I see the scumteam in {Jess, beeboy, {Frostings | abraker}}. Jess is put in this set for complete safety, to be honest.
Well now that I have this mafia topic open on my phone and computer and I am subbed to the topic, I can't really miss it. My activity mirrors that ofthe rest of OT. Though I started shitposts slightly more after Jess recent posts just because I got intoxicated by the stupidity (couldn't take it seriously). I just chose my vote at random on day 1 based on judgement on an avatar and remained on Dawn because his stupidity mislead everyone including me to vote for him. I already told everyone why I am voting on Frostings and even challenged someone to argue my vote which nobody did.rEdo wrote:
. I'm not convinced to his words though, especially considering he's been doing lots of posting that's not even necessary for the game to progress. I'd also like to note his inactivity on day 1 where his vote has already been placed on a town player and that haven't changed every since.
By OT you mean Off-Topic?abraker wrote:
Well now that I have this mafia topic open on my phone and computer and I am subbed to the topic, I can't really miss it. My activity mirrors that ofthe rest of OT. Though I started shitposts slightly more after Jess recent posts just because I got intoxicated by the stupidity (couldn't take it seriously). I just chose my vote at random on day 1 based on judgement on an avatar and remained on Dawn because his stupidity mislead everyone including me to vote for him. I already told everyone why I am voting on Frostings and even challenged someone to argue my vote which nobody did.
You have never explained why your vote on Dawnsday stayed on him, though. At least I can't read that from your ISO instead of that one post where you pointed his flaws concerning him not being a new player. But that was more of a direct attack rather the in-game one.
Your vote on Frostings was indeed sort of ignored by the other players, which is worrying, but Frostings himself pretty much answered your every doubt and you haven't properly replied to him ever since.
afk for ~4-6h ive got classes
What do you think of my theory that she saw Mafia Goon on the vertical line and thought it'd counterclaim you? Makes more sense to me since there's no VT on either line.rEdo wrote:
[*]Hika-Snip- That thing with her counter-claiming me as a VT seems to be a huge flaw in logic in townie's thinking. Hey, did you see that word? Yes, the one you're thinking of!
This is why I can't pin point you both being scum because he would've probably said something against it. He meaning zexion.beeboy123 wrote:
4.9 I'd be loopholing the prod system by abusing VLA.
yearEdo wrote:
By OT you mean Off-Topic?
I just did?rEdo wrote:
You have never explained why your vote on Dawnsday stayed on him, though
Or are you referring to me saying anything back then and not now?abraker wrote:
I just chose my vote at random on day 1 based on judgement on an avatar and remained on Dawn because his stupidity mislead everyone including me to vote for him.
Because I am not sure what to reply with. Even if he partially refuted my arguements, I have nothing of such sort for other players yet. My vote remains unless somebody shows correlations, coincidence or evidence between actions and mafia and demonstrates the other choice(s) correlate, coincide, or are evident of actions and townies.rEdo wrote:
but Frostings himself pretty much answered your every doubt and you haven't properly replied to him ever since.
I don't move unless a strong force makes me move
Also Sakura, for my defense statement, or "defense" statement towards Jess.
I just thought it would be fair if she could play with all of us, however, her consistent "I'll post tomorrow" or self voting things don't generate anything but toxic and anti town moves for actual town if she IS town. Simply by asking everyone to shift their attention to others during the witch hunt on Jess helps us generate conversation for the other things that actually do matter. I'm sure we ALL, rather scum or town, would be okay with lynching her, simply because we have so much content and actually put effort in this game.
I just thought it would be fair if she could play with all of us, however, her consistent "I'll post tomorrow" or self voting things don't generate anything but toxic and anti town moves for actual town if she IS town. Simply by asking everyone to shift their attention to others during the witch hunt on Jess helps us generate conversation for the other things that actually do matter. I'm sure we ALL, rather scum or town, would be okay with lynching her, simply because we have so much content and actually put effort in this game.
Also hold on. Either I forgot where Frostings refuted my vote or you are pulling my leg. I wouldn't be complaining that nobody is questioning my vote if at least one opposed it.
I never got an answer to this iircabraker wrote:
I must have missed something. Who was questioning you?Frostings wrote:
People were questioning my vote and so I explained it after people already had votes on him for similar reasons that I had
Fence sitting is the wrong word. However, a lot of the time scum usually like to have one on a bandwagon, one off it. And like rEdo mentions, they also like to get town cred from accurate analysis at the start, and they don't have any incentive to push a lynch rather than just makes themselves look like townies. You fit both these bills. And what have you done to make me think you're town? You've done pretty much nothing in the way of serious scumhunting, besides floating around and asking a few questions.beeboy123 wrote:
I said I wasn't a mason 16 posts into the game so I didn't really do what you were saying at all.
I mean I am pretty sure I said Dawnsday was town all of day 1 so I am not exactly sure what I fence sat on.
And all I have done this day phase was the vote counter claim and ask people questions. I don't see how voting a counter claim is scummy and I don't know why you are referring to bandwagons as a plural when I haven't voted anyone else.
Like literally nothing you said is true.
So a lot of people so far seem to be townreading beeboy, but I'd like some more explanation of this rather than just "good vibes".
Ummabraker wrote:
My vote remains unless somebody shows correlations, coincidence or evidence between actions and mafia and demonstrates the other choice(s) correlate, coincide, or are evident of actions and townies.
I don't move unless a strong force makes me move
This was kinda late.abraker wrote:
Beeboy reads as town for me. Idk why a scum would want to fake a role to be questioned throughout the game later. That will be a handicap from the start. Also dawn claimed the fake role and turned town, so I can believe Beeboy is town despite the fake claim.
I always fear that scum can be good at acting. I tend to ignore statements "scum wouldn't do x" or "x is not something scum would do" because of this.
bboy + frosty
or bboy + Jess
are my corrected scumteam reads.
Just currently reading interactions thus far and hopefully soon, I can re-read thread!
I also have a doctor's appt around 4pm EST so pls bear with me guys! I think I have the flu ):
or bboy + Jess
are my corrected scumteam reads.
Just currently reading interactions thus far and hopefully soon, I can re-read thread!
I also have a doctor's appt around 4pm EST so pls bear with me guys! I think I have the flu ):
Not really, and since my strongest townreads were the first ones to vote her that gives me a good feeling about a jess lynch. And I think that's the best we're gonna get at this point, town is really disjointed at the moment with everyone having different reads, I imagine it's a playground for the scum to sway the vote in any direction they please, if we wasn't voting jess.Sakura wrote:
My current main question is "Does anyone have any reason to believe Jess is town?"
I already got your opinions on Hika.
My TR on bee has been weakening as of late, but part of it is paranoia coz me and beeboy usually tend to not agree on townreads, and his latest reads list seems to mirror mine more or less.
(I had already mentioned TRs on him, b1rd and Frosty, and with the rEdo CC out of the way that would make rEdo town, leading to a PoE of Hika/Jess/abraker)
I was half expecting him to fight me on the Jess lynch and say Jess is town or something.
(I had already mentioned TRs on him, b1rd and Frosty, and with the rEdo CC out of the way that would make rEdo town, leading to a PoE of Hika/Jess/abraker)
I was half expecting him to fight me on the Jess lynch and say Jess is town or something.
What happened with your SR on me?Hika wrote:
bboy + frosty
or bboy + Jess
are my corrected scumteam reads.
Just currently reading interactions thus far and hopefully soon, I can re-read thread!
I also have a doctor's appt around 4pm EST so pls bear with me guys! I think I have the flu ):
I actually deduced it from your VLA.
you both can't go at the same time, zexion would've said smth about it.
But out of you and bboy, is suspect bboy is scummier than you.
It's just, I haven't seen very many interactions with you and frosty to make me believe that you both are townies.
you both can't go at the same time, zexion would've said smth about it.
But out of you and bboy, is suspect bboy is scummier than you.
It's just, I haven't seen very many interactions with you and frosty to make me believe that you both are townies.
Oh i msread corrected as "current".
I still would like to know what made you change your mind on me.
I still would like to know what made you change your mind on me.
Ok so as scum Hika would basically have no reason to commit to a counter claim on your bullet proof.rEdo wrote:
Let me corrent myself: {Jess, beeboy, {Hika | abraker}}. I just reminded myself of the fact that beeboy didn't even question Hika's counterclaim to me and voted me right off the bat.rEdo wrote:
I see the scumteam in {Jess, beeboy, {Frostings | abraker}}. Jess is put in this set for complete safety, to be honest.
It isn't like you are a full bullet proof or a cop with a doctor still alive (literally anything that would be worth dying to get lynched) scum could literally just kill you N2 if you are a bullet proof and there is nothing anyone could do about it so I just made the assumption that Hika was the town in the situation in addition to the fact she sort of sorted some kind of PR.
Was I correct, no but to say I didn't question it when in my mind there was literally nothing to question is kinda silly.
I ninja you silly willy
Also sorry Sakura, I meant to say I suspect bboy* not is suspect bboy.
I would argue my reads are more then just factual analysis but meh.rEdo wrote:
[*]beeboy. For some reason most people (myself included) assumed from the beginning of the game that beeboy is town. I've seen this happen way too many times (especially in the Hoenn Mafia) - a scum player posts nothing but accurate analysis at beginning of the day 1 and woo, he gets towncred for that. I have more reasons to believe he's scum than to believe he's town.[/list]
.
vote: jess
anyway I said I would do this so ima do this.
anyway I said I would do this so ima do this.
Also Sakura, do you actually think Hika is scum? Because if you have a strong case, that's all well and good. But if you're just going to relentlessly pursue a small chance that she's scum when most others don't think so, I feel like that's just gonna break up the cohesion of town, especially when you're one of the most conftown at the moment and could take a strong leading role in scumhunting.
Jess on L-1 right?
I can hammer if everyone's ready to end the day in a few hours.
I can hammer if everyone's ready to end the day in a few hours.
That's right. Jess unvoted herself too.
I'm 90% sure Jess is gonna flip town due to her going emotional and voting herself. That's not what I've seen earlier, and I don't think she would do that.Hika wrote:
Jess on L-1 right?
I can hammer if everyone's ready to end the day in a few hours.
I'll catch up (especially answer Sakura) in a few moments, sort of busy with uni work now.
I did something like that back on Sunday.B1rd wrote:
Also Sakura, do you actually think Hika is scum? Because if you have a strong case, that's all well and good. But if you're just going to relentlessly pursue a small chance that she's scum when most others don't think so, I feel like that's just gonna break up the cohesion of town, especially when you're one of the most conftown at the moment and could take a strong leading role in scumhunting.
But all people said is that her "townslip" made it impossible for her to be scum.
At the top of that post also showed a potential "scumslip" in the form of CCing as Mafia Goon.
I'm not 100% sure on her being scum, if anything it's more like... 50-60%, what i do know is that players always do something for a reason, whether the reason is subconcious or concious could heavily lead to alignment relevant information, which is why i still wonder "why did she CC as VT, when there wasn't a VT on either of the row or the column".
The same could be said about her constant rejecting of PRs using their abilities on her, and her false meta call that was later invalidated anyway before anyone investigated it in depth.
I'm fine with the Jess lynch, but I also do have a feeling she might flip town
I'm afraid though if we vote anyone else and we mislynch, we'll eventually be stuck in Lylo with Jess alive, and if she's town, scum can easily play the "Lynch Jess instead of me" card for the win
I'm afraid though if we vote anyone else and we mislynch, we'll eventually be stuck in Lylo with Jess alive, and if she's town, scum can easily play the "Lynch Jess instead of me" card for the win
Dawnsday and rEdo were questioning my vote, but what prompted me to explain it was when he got to L-1abraker wrote:
I never got an answer to this iircabraker wrote:
must have missed something. Who was questioning you?
This may sound weird, but literally the only reason i want Jess lynched is because, 1) she did a scummy move and should be punished for it, she could still be scum after all. 2) She's literally not contributing anything. 3) She being here is frustrating me to no end because i literally can't tell with her posts what her alignment might be, and she still has potential to flip scum.
I've already avoided joining games with jess on them before because people give her a pass for BS like this.
I feel like if we give her a pass after what she did she's just going to do it again, she could be scum AtEing, she could be town AtEing, and i dont fricken know, but if she's town and we encourage that kind of play, who's to say she won't do the same as scum, and no one would bat an eye on it.
tl;dr: Jess is just frustrating to try to read, and people in here like to give her a pass for doing all the scummy stuff she does, in MS she would already been WotC'd or even WotM'd out of games or people would just simply lynch her for things like that.
I've already avoided joining games with jess on them before because people give her a pass for BS like this.
I feel like if we give her a pass after what she did she's just going to do it again, she could be scum AtEing, she could be town AtEing, and i dont fricken know, but if she's town and we encourage that kind of play, who's to say she won't do the same as scum, and no one would bat an eye on it.
tl;dr: Jess is just frustrating to try to read, and people in here like to give her a pass for doing all the scummy stuff she does, in MS she would already been WotC'd or even WotM'd out of games or people would just simply lynch her for things like that.
Also I briefly skimmed over the posts again
When I townread abraker over his tryhard diagrams, in retrospect it could actually be an easy way to convince others to vote the wrong people if town is dumb like me
When I townread abraker over his tryhard diagrams, in retrospect it could actually be an easy way to convince others to vote the wrong people if town is dumb like me
I believe i've said several times that Effort =/= TownFrostings wrote:
Also I briefly skimmed over the posts again
When I townread abraker over his tryhard diagrams, in retrospect it could actually be an easy way to convince others to vote the wrong people if town is dumb like me
I haven't played a whole lot with Jess, so I can't really comment on her meta play, but I'd say there's a fair chance she's scum. And at the end of the day, I'd rather mislynch Jess than leave her alive and mislynch another townie. I'd be on board with lynching beeboy instead if other people with more experience have good townreads on Jess, but I can't really see that happening at this point.
I'll admit I haven't followed your analysis 100%, but from my point of view it just seems like it'd be unlikely for scum to do such a thing and cause a scene like Hika did. Scum tend to be more cautious and think out their moves, so I think it's unlikely that they'd do something like that.Sakura wrote:
I did something like that back on Sunday.
But all people said is that her "townslip" made it impossible for her to be scum.
At the top of that post also showed a potential "scumslip" in the form of CCing as Mafia Goon.
I'm not 100% sure on her being scum, if anything it's more like... 50-60%, what i do know is that players always do something for a reason, whether the reason is subconcious or concious could heavily lead to alignment relevant information, which is why i still wonder "why did she CC as VT, when there wasn't a VT on either of the row or the column".
The same could be said about her constant rejecting of PRs using their abilities on her, and her false meta call that was later invalidated anyway before anyone investigated it in depth.
She's probably not scum but I'm comfortable with a lynch on Jess.
Just the safest lynch on the table because it does eliminate some of the late game WIFOM possibilities if she's left here.
Just the safest lynch on the table because it does eliminate some of the late game WIFOM possibilities if she's left here.
I can't really see it happening. I believe she just thought that she's the vanilla townie and that it counter-claims me. A flaw in logic.Sakura wrote:
What do you think of my theory that she saw Mafia Goon on the vertical line and thought it'd counterclaim you? Makes more sense to me since there's no VT on either line.
That's not good enough of a reason for me. You haven't stayed why he's stupid, you just went along with everything people said beforehand.abraker wrote:
I just did?rEdo wrote:
You have never explained why your vote on Dawnsday stayed on him, thoughOr are you referring to me saying anything back then and not now?abraker wrote:
I just chose my vote at random on day 1 based on judgement on an avatar and remained on Dawn because his stupidity mislead everyone including me to vote for him.
Yes, I know. My point here was that you knew Hika's doing a townie move and that I got hit tonight, and you knew I survived because of my PR. So hey, since you know I'm conftown, let's use that counterclaim thing to actually start a wagon on me not only to get me lynched, but perhaps Hika on the following day as well.beeboy123 wrote:
Ok so as scum Hika would basically have no reason to commit to a counter claim on your bullet proof.
It isn't like you are a full bullet proof or a cop with a doctor still alive (literally anything that would be worth dying to get lynched) scum could literally just kill you N2 if you are a bullet proof and there is nothing anyone could do about it so I just made the assumption that Hika was the town in the situation in addition to the fact she sort of sorted some kind of PR.
Was I correct, no but to say I didn't question it when in my mind there was literally nothing to question is kinda silly.
Well, since you know who's town and scum. If you were a vanilla townie, could you get any other source for your reads than factual analysis?beeboy123 wrote:
I would argue my reads are more then just factual analysis but meh.
Play-safe card. Nice. If Jess gets lynched today and flips town, you're literally confscum to me.beeboy123 wrote:
vote: jess
anyway I said I would do this so ima do this.
---
Unfortunately I have to agree with Sakura on the fact that Jess' alignment is something we literally can't solve in any other way than lynching her. Even though like literally 3 people (myself included) she's about to flip town.
rEdo wrote:
Unfortunately I have to agree with Sakura on the fact that Jess' alignment is something we literally can't solve in any other way than lynching her. Even though like literally 3 people (myself included) said she's about to flip town.
What im interested in is knowing what makes you say she's gonna flip town.
Because time is running low
I have a feeling she's just playing regular jess?
Either way if she flips scum or town, you can't really link her to anyone else lol
her scumbuddy probably won't even defend her
Either way if she flips scum or town, you can't really link her to anyone else lol
her scumbuddy probably won't even defend her
Also im gonna drop my pursuit of Hika in favor of cohesion, i did notice some differences in her play in Lovers mafia, i just dont understand why people think she townslipped, but since a lot of my townreads (Frosty, B1rd, rEdo) seem to think so i'll let it go as im starting to feel like im beating a dead horse here. But if she does turn up being scum, expect a word of "I told you so!" from me at endgame.
This puts me in here:
Town:
rEdo
B1rd ^
Frostings ^
Leaning Town:
beeboy V
Hika ^
Leftovers:
abraker
Jess
(the arrows just indicate changes across my reads from their last position)
If Jess is town then im going wrong somewhere.
This puts me in here:
Town:
rEdo
B1rd ^
Frostings ^
Leaning Town:
beeboy V
Hika ^
Leftovers:
abraker
Jess
(the arrows just indicate changes across my reads from their last position)
If Jess is town then im going wrong somewhere.
That self-vote thing triggered me to thinking she's frustrated that we scumread her so she self-voted.Sakura wrote:
What im interested in is knowing what makes you say she's gonna flip town.
Do you have reasons to believe she wouldnt do this as scum?rEdo wrote:
That self-vote thing triggered me to thinking she's frustrated that we scumread her so she self-voted.Sakura wrote:
What im interested in is knowing what makes you say she's gonna flip town.
I don't want to be mean, but to be honest I don't believe she's intelligent enough to pull that off xdSakura wrote:
Do you have reasons to believe she wouldnt do this as scum?
She's basically done 3 pro-scum actions:
1) Hammering a player without letting them claim.
2) Self-voting which muddles VCA and if town, she's literally voting the only player that is conftown to her (herself)
3) Not contributing anything overall.
Sure, 2 could have been caused by frustration, but it's Jess we're talking about.
1) Hammering a player without letting them claim.
2) Self-voting which muddles VCA and if town, she's literally voting the only player that is conftown to her (herself)
3) Not contributing anything overall.
Sure, 2 could have been caused by frustration, but it's Jess we're talking about.
I mean as far as i recall, she's done the self voting thing before, why wouldnt it become a scum tactic.
Now let's assume for the sake of argument that you're right and she's town.
What happens then if we mislynch today, even if scum dont pull a lynch on her at XyLo, im worried she'll vote wrong, i mean, she already did it D1 ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
Now let's assume for the sake of argument that you're right and she's town.
What happens then if we mislynch today, even if scum dont pull a lynch on her at XyLo, im worried she'll vote wrong, i mean, she already did it D1 ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
While we do have time, why do you two have a town read on Frostings? I had a scum read on him before, and I haven't analysed frosty's recent posts, but him being scum is still a possibility IMO.
Dude frosty scum is soooo possible.
Everything is always a possibility, I just think the chances are very unlikely. And my read on him comes entirely from Experience, specially coz i've been in his crosshairs several times in the past on games.B1rd wrote:
While we do have time, why do you two have a town read on Frostings? I had a scum read on him before, and I haven't analysed frosty's recent posts, but him being scum is still a possibility IMO.
Also, it's just jess, Sakura. If she turns out town, whoops.
If not then okay; we will just figure something out.
If not then okay; we will just figure something out.
Literally the only reason for people to say she's town is
"OMG SHE SELF VOTED SHE'S SO TOTES FRUSTRATED AND TOWN"
I know the deal trust me, it's a strategy i used to use too, and no it shouldn't be encouraged.
"OMG SHE SELF VOTED SHE'S SO TOTES FRUSTRATED AND TOWN"
I know the deal trust me, it's a strategy i used to use too, and no it shouldn't be encouraged.
Your defence of him including experience is starting to be a weak arguements for me. More the reason a fellow scum is protecting scum. Like you seem too defensive of him.Sakura wrote:
Everything is always a possibility, I just think the chances are very unlikely. And my read on him comes entirely from Experience, specially coz i've been in his crosshairs several times in the past on games.B1rd wrote:
While we do have time, why do you two have a town read on Frostings? I had a scum read on him before, and I haven't analysed frosty's recent posts, but him being scum is still a possibility IMO.
If Jess flips town, you are and Frosty will be in my watch list
We've been on your watch list for a while. What's new?abraker wrote:
If Jess flips town, you are and Frosty will be in my watch list
To be clear, it's as if the subtle mentioning of "Frosty might be scum" sets off a "I know he's not from experience" trigger
It's starting to wet off red flags for me
*set
I mean i have a hard time explaining my townread on Frosty
Just like people have a hard time explaining why they think Jess will flip town from the self vote despite it being null at best.
Havent you ever heard about gut?
Just like people have a hard time explaining why they think Jess will flip town from the self vote despite it being null at best.
Havent you ever heard about gut?
I play gut only on first day when there is nothing to go by. I will need find something that doesn't exist if you want me to play by "gut".
Failure to explain something leads to suspicion
Failure to explain something leads to suspicion
A subtle mentioning?abraker wrote:
To be clear, it's as if the subtle mentioning of "Frosty might be scum" sets off a "I know he's not from experience" trigger
Is this subtle to you?:
B1rd wrote:
While we do have time, why do you two have a town read on Frostings? I had a scum read on him before, and I haven't analysed frosty's recent posts, but him being scum is still a possibility IMO.
Sure, but you're not going to impress anyone else with contradicting reads with your only reasoning being your "gut feeling".
Lol. I read that in the thread you linked and I was thinking of quoting it myself.Sakura wrote:
Literally the only reason for people to say she's town is
"OMG SHE SELF VOTED SHE'S SO TOTES FRUSTRATED AND TOWN"
I know the deal trust me, it's a strategy i used to use too, and no it shouldn't be encouraged.
"Subtle"
I will admit, you can now see how I can easily dismiss things as something lesser and prioritize things that are that align with the pile of coincidences I have found. To be clear though coincidence =/= fact, but it is my digging grounds for facts
I will admit, you can now see how I can easily dismiss things as something lesser and prioritize things that are that align with the pile of coincidences I have found. To be clear though coincidence =/= fact, but it is my digging grounds for facts
My gut comes from direct play experience with Frosty, i can try and explain it but im not very good at explaining feelings.
You're saying i went and said that he's town from experience at the lightest subtle suspicion.abraker wrote:
"Subtle"
I will admit, you can now see how I can easily dismiss things as something lesser and prioritize things that are that align with the pile of coincidences I have found. To be clear though coincidence =/= fact, but it is my digging grounds for facts
But that's not true, I was asked a direct question.
Well I think frostings is actually scum from experience.
He's not pulling his "I know I'm town" strings like he usually does.
He's not pulling his "I know I'm town" strings like he usually does.
My theory right now is Frosty+Sakura scum. My agenda right now is to find any coincidences that align with that theory and hopefully stumble upon a fact that may prove or disprove this theory.Sakura wrote:
You're saying i went and said that he's town from experience at the lightest subtle suspicion.abraker wrote:
"Subtle"
I will admit, you can now see how I can easily dismiss things as something lesser and prioritize things that are that align with the pile of coincidences I have found. To be clear though coincidence =/= fact, but it is my digging grounds for facts
But that's not true, I was asked a direct question.
Not exactly, Frosty hates playing as scum.
At game start the way he went after you and Dawn reminds me a lot of how he went after me in Madoka, and idk, i feel like he'd be like more lost and confused instead of straightforward if he was scum.
At game start the way he went after you and Dawn reminds me a lot of how he went after me in Madoka, and idk, i feel like he'd be like more lost and confused instead of straightforward if he was scum.
I can buy lost and confused but you can act list and confused as scum as well.
As I said before I strictly ignore the "x wouldn't act like y" claims. Those are nothing to me unless you prove why "x would or would not act like y"
As I said before I strictly ignore the "x wouldn't act like y" claims. Those are nothing to me unless you prove why "x would or would not act like y"
For starters he was the first one to mention you could be faking your confusion and then he also was the first one to mention you had townslipped instead, i find it hard to see him doing either of those 2 things as scum.
Ahhh
Sakura please quote.
Sakura please quote.
idk who you are talking to
Hey now... Usually I have a pretty good idea what's going onSakura wrote:
idk, i feel like he'd be like more lost and confused instead of straightforward if he was scum.
At least I like to think that
I was talking to Hika but here are the relevant quotes:
Same with his push on Dawnsday D1.
Frostings wrote:
Hello
I don't know if I'm reading this correctly, but it seems like abraker and B1rd are suspicious of me because they think I have some secret motive or psychology with my votes and reads, but I can't even understand your explanations for my actions let alone come up with them
Hika reminds me of Irre in I think the Tree house game where he acted like he had no idea what was going on. I don't really believe her when she says the setup is confusing, and since Dawn flipped town I think she's still pretty suspicious. The VT claim doesn't help at all.. It looks like she's trying to rack up town points by claiming early, when we already know everybody who's town is VT after rEdo's claim
Jess.. uhhh in the back of my mind I had a feeling she would lynch early. I should have unvoted to get a claim at least but she hammered earlier than I expected. Her action isn't really a tell, but I would be content with a PL to save us headache later
As for the others, I'll have to read the posts again, I just had a quick skim over all the posts
Long story short i have a hard time seeing Frosty pulling this off as scum.Frostings wrote:
So... Hika thought there was only one VT in the game? Even after Tracker got flipped?
... It's actually a pretty convincing townslip, how can you even make this up as scum
Same with his push on Dawnsday D1.
He's still being a little confusing though. His post seem ambiguous and the way he's playing has to be alignment indicative.
I mean saying something like "I'm town" is way more fakeable than the way he approaches the game.
How can you even be using that as a meta tell.
It's just a usual indicator for me that Frostings is town if:
1. Straightforward and doesn't change mindset, regardless of whole town perspective.
2. Always says "but I'm VT, but I'm VT" when he's town.
Number 1 always being the biggest indicator.
1. Straightforward and doesn't change mindset, regardless of whole town perspective.
2. Always says "but I'm VT, but I'm VT" when he's town.
Number 1 always being the biggest indicator.
Frosty also just prevented Hika lynch after being on about her being scum since D1. What kind of scum does that (unless Hika's scum)
He could be scum keeping me alive for WIFOM.
He also jumped in to defend Hika after my Wall post:
If anything im more surprised Hika's scumreading him after this than if anyone else is.Frostings wrote:
I actually don't think Hika could make this up as scum
it doesn't really make sense to claim VT as scum on Day 1 and then push that onto Day 2 to try to "CC" a claimed BP in an open setup, especially after the Tracker flip
It's a pretty believable townslip, I'd be really really surprised if Hika flipped scum
But I already stated that earlier on, I think.
That's why I claimed myself the first time around and made sure I did so scum wouldn't use me for that purpose.
That's why I claimed myself the first time around and made sure I did so scum wouldn't use me for that purpose.