The way I see it is;
We lynch now with a 2/9 chance of getting scum and a 7/9 chance of killing off a potentially good role (we cannot know for obvious reasons). The night will end up with 1 mafia on the best case scenario or minus 1 mystery role in the worst case scenario.
We no lynch now, 2 mafia guaranteed to be alive for the night but a higher chance of producing a favourable night result (they might shoot a bulletproof, they might get themselves killed etc).
So wait, what about day 2?
Both situations will be almost exactly the same; PR have to claim their roles/results if we want to actually know what might have transpired overnight. The only other information we'll have is wifom at best (voting patterns etc). The exception is 1 scenario has a 0% chance of being 1 town down for that night and 1 scenario has a 77% being 1 town down for the night. In my opinion no lynching is really only detrimental if VT outweigh PR (because lynch is the most powerful tool) but seeing everyone is potentially a "PR" (secret roles are sorta kinda I guess) I'd say damage control on day 1 is more beneficial than a wild stab. (ie do we play it safe or do we take a stab and hope for the best?)
That's how I see it anyway.
We lynch now with a 2/9 chance of getting scum and a 7/9 chance of killing off a potentially good role (we cannot know for obvious reasons). The night will end up with 1 mafia on the best case scenario or minus 1 mystery role in the worst case scenario.
We no lynch now, 2 mafia guaranteed to be alive for the night but a higher chance of producing a favourable night result (they might shoot a bulletproof, they might get themselves killed etc).
So wait, what about day 2?
Both situations will be almost exactly the same; PR have to claim their roles/results if we want to actually know what might have transpired overnight. The only other information we'll have is wifom at best (voting patterns etc). The exception is 1 scenario has a 0% chance of being 1 town down for that night and 1 scenario has a 77% being 1 town down for the night. In my opinion no lynching is really only detrimental if VT outweigh PR (because lynch is the most powerful tool) but seeing everyone is potentially a "PR" (secret roles are sorta kinda I guess) I'd say damage control on day 1 is more beneficial than a wild stab. (ie do we play it safe or do we take a stab and hope for the best?)
That's how I see it anyway.