here's the problem with considering risk/reward, certain ratios are essentially the same
Consider the ratio 3:1 on a day round. since we must no lynch (otherwise we have a higher chance than necessary of losing), it's the exact same as 2:1 just with another night round. Likewise, 4:2 is the same idea as 3:2. given this setup I'd be 90% certain there's a vigilante or a paranoid gun owner or something along those lines, so if we lynch wrong today it's 6:2 -> 4:2 on D2 and we just have to NL anyway. I prefer to NL today because then we have more information (night actions etc.) before we lynch.
Consider the ratio 3:1 on a day round. since we must no lynch (otherwise we have a higher chance than necessary of losing), it's the exact same as 2:1 just with another night round. Likewise, 4:2 is the same idea as 3:2. given this setup I'd be 90% certain there's a vigilante or a paranoid gun owner or something along those lines, so if we lynch wrong today it's 6:2 -> 4:2 on D2 and we just have to NL anyway. I prefer to NL today because then we have more information (night actions etc.) before we lynch.