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Mystery Mafia (Town Win!)

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fartownik
2,189 posts
Joined December 2008
fartownik

Tanzklaue wrote:

like I said, I thought quara already claimed and I got confused by the explanation he gave.

also, if I wanted to pull off something similiar to what you did, I would've waited longer until a claim of mine would have made it impossible to stop the claim.

also, you have to see it like this: if you lynch me now, you'll lynch a town mystery role and mafia has a free shot this night. if I don't get lynched, it is likely that mafia kills me. if they don't kill me, then I might bring up something useful with my power, which hurts them.

you can still lynch me without too much problem at day 2, but lynching a potential friendly PR at day 1 is really dumb.
Throughout the games I learned not to give a fuck about the role when lynching a potential mafia. Your role would mean nothing if you were a likely scum for me.

I'd say Mystery Roles have a similar strength to Secret Roles in this game. I doubt we will manage to successfully determine every PR in the game (even with the potential massclaiming of actions D2), thus Mystery Roles might end up more harmful than helpful for Town.
Quaraezha
1,491 posts
Joined February 2011
Quaraezha

Tanzklaue wrote:

like I said, I thought quara already claimed and I got confused by the explanation he gave.
I also claim vigilante without a night action.

I'm just saying that massclaim is a terrible idea, especially for Day 1.
The only strategic D1 massclaim I could think of is for PRs to announce their target so we know what happens to them in D2
Which still sounds pretty fuckin' dumb.

As for the number of mafias,
Having 3 mafia would pretty much make D1 MYLO already.
aka Mislynch and Town loses.
So I'm pretty sure there's just 2 of them.
Quaraezha
1,491 posts
Joined February 2011
Quaraezha
Mod: Just making sure. But some (or none) mafias can have their own Mystery Action, yes? A different action other than their usual mafia night kill?
Tanzklaue
1,151 posts
Joined December 2010
Tanzklaue

fartownik wrote:

Tanzklaue wrote:

like I said, I thought quara already claimed and I got confused by the explanation he gave.

also, if I wanted to pull off something similiar to what you did, I would've waited longer until a claim of mine would have made it impossible to stop the claim.

also, you have to see it like this: if you lynch me now, you'll lynch a town mystery role and mafia has a free shot this night. if I don't get lynched, it is likely that mafia kills me. if they don't kill me, then I might bring up something useful with my power, which hurts them.

you can still lynch me without too much problem at day 2, but lynching a potential friendly PR at day 1 is really dumb.
Throughout the games I learned not to give a fuck about the role when lynching a potential mafia. Your role would mean nothing if you were a likely scum for me.

I'd say Mystery Roles have a similar strength to Secret Roles in this game. I doubt we will manage to successfully determine every PR in the game (even with the potential massclaiming of actions D2), thus Mystery Roles might end up more harmful than helpful for Town.
I think a mystery role is stronger when not lynched unless it's obv scum. passive roles only can block nightactions, kill the person who targeted them, or plainly do nothing. mystery roles are guaranteed to have some ability, which can be used strategically, unlike the passive powers of secret roles.

also, if the reason for massclaiming being bad is that town PRs make themselves a target, wouldn't it be really dumb to do the dirty work for the scum and killing of the target directly?

all I can say is that I am town, and I think it's much more suspicious to tunnel down on one guy this intensively for a relatively minor reason. I already said, I claimed in confusion and didn't think about the consequences.
Tanzklaue
1,151 posts
Joined December 2010
Tanzklaue

Quaraezha wrote:

Tanzklaue wrote:

like I said, I thought quara already claimed and I got confused by the explanation he gave.
I also claim vigilante without a night action.

I'm just saying that massclaim is a terrible idea, especially for Day 1.
The only strategic D1 massclaim I could think of is for PRs to announce their target so we know what happens to them in D2
Which still sounds pretty fuckin' dumb.

As for the number of mafias,
Having 3 mafia would pretty much make D1 MYLO already.
aka Mislynch and Town loses.
So I'm pretty sure there's just 2 of them.
I didn't know that you jokeclaim after RVS is technically done. how should I know that?
Kanye West
2,222 posts
Joined July 2011
Topic Starter
Kanye West

Quaraezha wrote:

Mod: Just making sure. But some (or none) mafias can have their own Mystery Action, yes? A different action other than their usual mafia night kill?
It's possible.

Also I was asked via PM whether mystery roles could target themselves. The "mystery" ability is single-target, and cannot be self-targeted. No exceptions.
fartownik
2,189 posts
Joined December 2008
fartownik

Tanzklaue wrote:

I think a mystery role is stronger when not lynched unless it's obv scum. passive roles only can block nightactions, kill the person who targeted them, or plainly do nothing. mystery roles are guaranteed to have some ability, which can be used strategically, unlike the passive powers of secret roles.

also, if the reason for massclaiming being bad is that town PRs make themselves a target, wouldn't it be really dumb to do the dirty work for the scum and killing of the target directly?

all I can say is that I am town, and I think it's much more suspicious to tunnel down on one guy this intensively for a relatively minor reason. I already said, I claimed in confusion and didn't think about the consequences.
How is a Mystery Role stronger when you have no idea what it is? It'd be stronger if we knew at least one of the roles for sure, but right now we have none and both are pretty much equal. The night actions will be random as fuck, you can never know who performs what action and what are the results of it.

Also I'm not sure what you mean in the 2nd paragraph.

And I'm not 'tunneling' you. I'm putting pressure on you, I'm reaction testing you. That's what you do when you have no leads in D1 (well, not only in D1).
Raging Bull
2,809 posts
Joined June 2010
Raging Bull
I'm not entirely sure what massclaim would do here anyways, so that idea seems rather useless. Tanz said Q claimed, but I don't know why would he believe "joker" since all we would get is "mystery/secret" I believe.

Of course, I'm pretty gullible, but I think in this game, it's almost hard to tell what your action is and if you even know if it works.


Tanz, what do you think of your situation right now? How can you convince us your mystery role will make us see you as town if your ability would work?
Quaraezha
1,491 posts
Joined February 2011
Quaraezha

Tanzklaue wrote:

I didn't know that you jokeclaim after RVS is technically done. how should I know that?
Because everyone obviously knows their specific role and a fool is best claim.

I also agree with fartownik in terms of secret role = mystery role
The possibility of a bulletproof or grandma lurks within the secret role
And there might be a vigilante among mystery roles too, and that would suck if he killed town.
pieguyn
2,020 posts
Joined May 2009
pieguyn
Mystery and Secret seem to me to be the same if they have a role, the problem is secret roles can also be VTs
with mystery at least we know we have something. also secret roles aren't limited to just blocking NKs, there could be some weird thing (e.g. that one game of mine where there was a switch/nexus/lightning rod/etc.)
Tanzklaue
1,151 posts
Joined December 2010
Tanzklaue

fartownik wrote:

How is a Mystery Role stronger when you have no idea what it is? It'd be stronger if we knew at least one of the roles for sure, but right now we have none and both are pretty much equal. The night actions will be random as fuck, you can never know who performs what action and what are the results of it.

Also I'm not sure what you mean in the 2nd paragraph.

And I'm not 'tunneling' you. I'm putting pressure on you, I'm reaction testing you. That's what you do when you have no leads in D1 (well, not only in D1).
mytery roles are stronger because they have more potential. a secret role can't actively manipulate the game, it can't interact, only passively react. a secret role doesn't really start out with the potential to be helpful for town. a mystery role, on the other hand, can be really strong. sure, it also can be awful (aka blow of faces), but the potential behind an active PR is almost always bigger than the potential of a passive one. add to that that secret roles could have no power at all...

forget the second paragraph, when I think about it again, it doesn't make too much sense.

overall, as a mystery role, I need to be alive at night to work my magic. lynching active PRs at day 1 isn't really useful to town, in my opinion at least. I also think that fart is town or at least leans town, as his action makes sense (it was a dumb action, I acknowledge that). I know that I contradict my last statement here (about how it's suspicious to tunnel on me), but I'm not really getting vibes from fart. call it "gut feeling".

tsukasa, on the other hand, is still fishy. he quoted my doubt about the massclaim and then accused me of slipping, instead of quoting the actual claim. I get a feeling that he wants to carry over the random vote into a fairly quick lynch.
Tanzklaue
1,151 posts
Joined December 2010
Tanzklaue

Raging Bull wrote:

I'm not entirely sure what massclaim would do here anyways, so that idea seems rather useless. Tanz said Q claimed, but I don't know why would he believe "joker" since all we would get is "mystery/secret" I believe.
I didn't know fool was a possible PR in mafia games. I thought he just claimed mystery role in a fancy way.
Tanzklaue
1,151 posts
Joined December 2010
Tanzklaue

Raging Bull wrote:

Tanz, what do you think of your situation right now? How can you convince us your mystery role will make us see you as town if your ability would work?
I don't know how to really convince you that I'm town. like I said in my very first post in this game, mystery roles can basically not confirm anything. I will get some sort of result though, may it some investigation or spontanious face blowing, then I can report that.
fartownik
2,189 posts
Joined December 2008
fartownik

Tanzklaue wrote:

mytery roles are stronger because they have more potential. a secret role can't actively manipulate the game, it can't interact, only passively react. a secret role doesn't really start out with the potential to be helpful for town. a mystery role, on the other hand, can be really strong. sure, it also can be awful (aka blow of faces), but the potential behind an active PR is almost always bigger than the potential of a passive one. add to that that secret roles could have no power at all...

forget the second paragraph, when I think about it again, it doesn't make too much sense.

overall, as a mystery role, I need to be alive at night to work my magic. lynching active PRs at day 1 isn't really useful to town, in my opinion at least. I also think that fart is town or at least leans town, as his action makes sense (it was a dumb action, I acknowledge that). I know that I contradict my last statement here (about how it's suspicious to tunnel on me), but I'm not really getting vibes from fart. call it "gut feeling".

tsukasa, on the other hand, is still fishy. he quoted my doubt about the massclaim and then accused me of slipping, instead of quoting the actual claim. I get a feeling that he wants to carry over the random vote into a fairly quick lynch.
Of course a Secret Role can manipulate the game, I'd say even better than a Mystery Role. Passively, as you said, but still. And passive or active doesn't mean anything here because we have no clue of what our PRs are. I won't change my mind on the case, we shouldn't look upon potential targets with the role-glass on.
Quaraezha
1,491 posts
Joined February 2011
Quaraezha
As discussed. There are most likely 2 mafia, unless a MYLO with 3.

I'm gonna go ahead and Vote: No Lynch on this one.
With no leads, I'd rather have one town be killed than two in D2.
And I'm interested to see what everyone's abilities are capable of.
Quaraezha
1,491 posts
Joined February 2011
Quaraezha
I mean it would totally suck if we lynched a Mystery Role today.
It would forever be a mystery :'(
pieguyn
2,020 posts
Joined May 2009
pieguyn
NL might be ok here just to see what everyone does
plus there's the possibility of a vigilante. due to this, NL + a vig kill #1 would make all the numbers be correct (cause we want an odd number of players during day, e.g. 3 players 2-1, 5 players 3-2 or 4-1 -> 2-1 on mislynch etc.)
I'm thinking NL wouldn't be a bad idea here..
Tanzklaue
1,151 posts
Joined December 2010
Tanzklaue
I think so too. NL gives every mystery role the chance to find out what they do. in an optimum case, we could even be still 9 people after night 1.
Raging Bull
2,809 posts
Joined June 2010
Raging Bull
Why don't we all target one person? at most we would get 2 kills, one from mafia and one from town kill. Perhaps some informatino can be gained from it from all the mystery roles? Hell if we get lucky with tracker/watcher, we can see who didn't target that person. You guys can target me if you like, if I'm grandma, hell town wins then :D
Quaraezha
1,491 posts
Joined February 2011
Quaraezha
To be honest, my first impression after hearing that this would be a Mystery Role mafia game
Is to have a situation where one person think he's doc, and protects someone, and ends up killing him.

So I'm pretty sure there's a Vigilante among the Townies. So NL is good.
Quaraezha
1,491 posts
Joined February 2011
Quaraezha
And let's not target the same person. Even if things happened to that person, we wouldn't know which of the mystery roles did that to him.

Mod: When someone dies, do you reveal their specific role or if they're just secret/mystery?
Raging Bull
2,809 posts
Joined June 2010
Raging Bull
Well I'm saying is that, perhaps one of the mystery role will ahppen to be a informative role.
Quaraezha
1,491 posts
Joined February 2011
Quaraezha
Oh yeah, completely forgot the possibility of investigative roles that gets reports.
I suppose there should at least be one. I just fucking hope there's no Insane Cop. Or some other sanity but sane.
Rantai
1,000 posts
Joined July 2010
Rantai

Raging Bull wrote:

Why don't we all target one person? at most we would get 2 kills, one from mafia and one from town kill. Perhaps some informatino can be gained from it from all the mystery roles? Hell if we get lucky with tracker/watcher, we can see who didn't target that person. You guys can target me if you like, if I'm grandma, hell town wins then :D
Better hope you're not a paranoid gun owner.

I have to agree on the no lynch though. With everyone being anything, I'd rather see what could happen overnight. That and it's more fun that way.
Raging Bull
2,809 posts
Joined June 2010
Raging Bull
Well, if I am, at least it was a great way for grandma to kill off 6 people.
pieguyn
2,020 posts
Joined May 2009
pieguyn
vote: No Lynch no one hammer till we've figured everything out plz
oh that's a good point, paranoid gun owner would be hell in a setup like this. Problem is no one knows who he is..
I think it'd be best to target different people cause we have more information that way. Otherwise, we don't know whose role did what, also we get more info on passive roles that way..
fartownik
2,189 posts
Joined December 2008
fartownik
Unvote
I'm all for No Lynch too, sounds pretty fair. Targeting one person is a horrible idea though. We should probably target randomly and then report the actions D2.
Raging Bull
2,809 posts
Joined June 2010
Raging Bull
Mm fine then, just an idea if we can get more information.
Kanye West
2,222 posts
Joined July 2011
Topic Starter
Kanye West

Quaraezha wrote:

Mod: When someone dies, do you reveal their specific role or if they're just secret/mystery?
Please read the OP, thanks.
Quaraezha
1,491 posts
Joined February 2011
Quaraezha
Niggerdick. Okay.
fartownik
2,189 posts
Joined December 2008
fartownik
So guys, who didn't throw his opinion about the No Lynch today should do so.
Amianki
85 posts
Joined January 2011
Amianki
Can you give me a situation where massclaiming targets after a NL would be a good idea? All I'm seeing are situations where it's either actively a BAD idea or mostly unhelpful.
fartownik
2,189 posts
Joined December 2008
fartownik
Without massclaiming the actions it's high likely we won't be able to find our roles, so if we want to determine them we must do it. We have to establish whether we don't care what the roles are and let players determine them on their own accord or cooperate and find a solution together.
Amianki
85 posts
Joined January 2011
Amianki
Okay, how do we tell if someone's a doctor, roleblocker, etc.? The only real roles that we can tell would be obvious to the person without a mass claim anyway and would be better off staying silent since we have no way of knowing who, if anyone, can stop them from being killed.

It's especially bad to massclaim roles when there's zero or two kills. The former gives scum much more information than town, while the latter makes a vigilante obvious (or mostly obvious, if more than one person targetted the dead guy) without us having a real way to keep them alive.
VoidnOwO
1,256 posts
Joined August 2012
VoidnOwO
:)
Last edited by VoidnOwO , edited 1 time in total.
fartownik
2,189 posts
Joined December 2008
fartownik
We can decide whether we massclaim later tommorrow if we have too few information to go for the lynch. You're right (Caligno) that massclaim might bring us nothing tommorrow, but if we actually do it depends on the night actions themselves. If people will need it to confirm their role then we will go for it. I don't think we should base on blind luck (or more like madness) all the game.
Amianki
85 posts
Joined January 2011
Amianki
I just realized 2 things.

1. We are also not guaranteed to have a secret vigilante or cop. This entire plan hinges on the importance of having at least one of these roles. I strongly doubt that we don't, but it IS possible.

2. No lynching today actively stifles information. Considering that we most likely won't gain anything too concrete tonight, we should make up for it by going through with a lynch today and use the information we get to help us tomorrow.

To be honest, I actually think that no lynch is more universally negative than positive at this point. I don't support this at all.
Tsukasa
471 posts
Joined June 2011
Tsukasa

BRBP wrote:

What?

It was pieguy's idea, Tanz's post implied he was against it.
We interpret pieguy too different

pieguy1372 wrote:

I bet RB has a secret role now just cause he asked XD
not sure if a roleclaim would work in this scenario. after thinking about it for a few seconds, I don't think it would hurt us much, although some of the more useful roles are probably the ones with night actions o.o

Tanzklaue wrote:

okay, I am mystery, and I can't wait to blow someones face off :3

Tanzklaue wrote:

I claimed because I'm tired and dumb I thought quara already claimed aswell.

at least I would interpret "fool with nightaction" as that.

Tanzklaue wrote:

in retrospect, I don't really understand why I claimed that fast... I am really dumb
And the fact that he's just BEGGING to be lynched...

Raging Bull wrote:

Yes I'm secret role. Not like that would give much away, especially since I don't even know if I'm VT or some passive ability.
DON'T YOU FOLLOW BRO!!!

fartownik wrote:

Massclaim is totally useless in this game, unless you're mafia. It worked in the Stack the Deck because we had some idea of the current roles, but here we have pretty much none. What would massclaim give us? What would be our plan after it? Lynching off the 'VTs' (aka Secret roles) would be invalid here because they might be PRs as well and we don't know what PRs exactly. We know nothing while scum can plan the nightkill more thoroughly.

Unvote
Vote: Tanzklaue

The claim looked like a slip. No one said we massclaim and you rushed with it. Gives me bumps you wanted to cause a domino effect, similar to NH's in the Stack the Deck game.
OMG FART TOWN!!! :O

Tanzklaue wrote:

like I said, I thought quara already claimed and I got confused by the explanation he gave.

also, if I wanted to pull off something similiar to what you did, I would've waited longer until a claim of mine would have made it impossible to stop the claim.

la la la I'm PR don't lynch me pl0x la la la

Tanzklaue wrote:

tsukasa, on the other hand, is still fishy. he quoted my doubt about the massclaim and then accused me of slipping, instead of quoting the actual claim. I get a feeling that he wants to carry over the random vote into a fairly quick lynch.
DEFLECTIOOOOOOOOOOOOOOON!!!!

Quaraezha wrote:

As discussed. There are most likely 2 mafia, unless a MYLO with 3.

I'm gonna go ahead and Vote: No Lynch on this one.
With no leads, I'd rather have one town be killed than two in D2.
And I'm interested to see what everyone's abilities are capable of.
Qua is town. Probably. Maybe. IDK

But I for one don't like the idea of no lynch.
1) Being that mafia can have free kill
2) OMG MASSCLAIM ON D2 MADNESS!!!!!!
3) Scum pool never lessens when we never lynch
Tsukasa
471 posts
Joined June 2011
Tsukasa
Whoops Double post
Kanye West
2,222 posts
Joined July 2011
Topic Starter
Kanye West
Can a BAT please remove that :/
Last edited by Sakura , edited 1 time in total.
Quaraezha
1,491 posts
Joined February 2011
Quaraezha

Tsukasa wrote:

But I for one don't like the idea of no lynch.
1) Being that mafia can have free kill
2) OMG MASSCLAIM ON D2 MADNESS!!!!!!
3) Scum pool never lessens when we never lynch
Even if we do luckily lynch a mafia today, the other mafia/s can still kill tonight, regardless (unless there's doc/rb)

I know how NL in D1 is usually not the best strategy for other mafia games, but this one is abnormal.
We don't even know what our own roles do, and lynching randomly (or based on mere scumhunt) in this random, unknown setup is just truly absurd.

As for massclaiming on D2, that's for everyone to decide. Keep in mind that Mafia can still easily fake a report without proof.
Quaraezha
1,491 posts
Joined February 2011
Quaraezha
Also my bad, I just noticed I said "MYLO with 3 Mafia"
Which it isn't, by the way. I miscounted and thought there were 7 players.
Raging Bull
2,809 posts
Joined June 2010
Raging Bull
Lynching randomly still gives us a chance to get scum. It doesn't matter if the other mafia will be alive to send in the kill, they still lost one.
Quaraezha
1,491 posts
Joined February 2011
Quaraezha
I want to assume that everyone has at least one specialty and none of us is a regular townie.
And it would be bad to mislynch someone special.

The're also a possibility of having a fool/jester among the Special Roles too.
Raging Bull
2,809 posts
Joined June 2010
Raging Bull
The way I read the OP, only scum and town.


@mod, is there a third party?
Rantai
1,000 posts
Joined July 2010
Rantai
The way I see it is;

We lynch now with a 2/9 chance of getting scum and a 7/9 chance of killing off a potentially good role (we cannot know for obvious reasons). The night will end up with 1 mafia on the best case scenario or minus 1 mystery role in the worst case scenario.

We no lynch now, 2 mafia guaranteed to be alive for the night but a higher chance of producing a favourable night result (they might shoot a bulletproof, they might get themselves killed etc).

So wait, what about day 2?

Both situations will be almost exactly the same; PR have to claim their roles/results if we want to actually know what might have transpired overnight. The only other information we'll have is wifom at best (voting patterns etc). The exception is 1 scenario has a 0% chance of being 1 town down for that night and 1 scenario has a 77% being 1 town down for the night. In my opinion no lynching is really only detrimental if VT outweigh PR (because lynch is the most powerful tool) but seeing everyone is potentially a "PR" (secret roles are sorta kinda I guess) I'd say damage control on day 1 is more beneficial than a wild stab. (ie do we play it safe or do we take a stab and hope for the best?)

That's how I see it anyway.
Quaraezha
1,491 posts
Joined February 2011
Quaraezha
Worst Case Scenario is that there are actually 3 mafias, we mislynched Day 1, a vigilante kills a townie and mafia nightkills another townie. Which pretty much ends the game. Hilariously too.

I wish to give everyone a chance and at least try out their abilities tonight. a 2/9 or 3/9 chance of lynching scum is not worth it, in my opinion.
Rantai
1,000 posts
Joined July 2010
Rantai
3/9 would be super imba for the mafia.

I simply don't believe there is 3 (2-1-6 is FAR more likely if it was to be like that)
Amianki
85 posts
Joined January 2011
Amianki
Vote: Quaraezha
Tsukasa
471 posts
Joined June 2011
Tsukasa
Can we stop focusing about the PR?

Like... Seriously. PR predicting will get us NO WHERE
Rantai
1,000 posts
Joined July 2010
Rantai
Who's predicting PR's? (ie who's saying this guy is this role)

Don't give angry conjecture without trying to make a counter point.

Also explain why it's a waste of time trying to discuss these matters.

Seriously.
Rantai
1,000 posts
Joined July 2010
Rantai
Oh yeah Tsukasa for mafia for attempting to suppress discussion.

Yep.
Tsukasa
471 posts
Joined June 2011
Tsukasa

Rantai wrote:

Who's predicting PR's? (ie who's saying this guy is this role)

Don't give angry conjecture without trying to make a counter point.

Also explain why it's a waste of time trying to discuss these matters.

Seriously.
Uh... PR predicting = Trying to guess what "potential" PRs are out there. Like what Qua is doing :V

Rantai wrote:

Oh yeah Tsukasa for mafia for attempting to suppress discussion.

Yep.
I... am so... going to try to ignore this :roll:
Tsukasa
471 posts
Joined June 2011
Tsukasa
And these guys are being too afraid to lynch just because of potential PRs. Which is pretty bad.

You know what people say

"BREAK THE CHAINS OF FEAR THAT BIND YOU TO THE GROUND"
Tsukasa
471 posts
Joined June 2011
Tsukasa
And being too afraid to lynch would get us nowhere. Scum only die when they are lynched.

Honestly, I'd rather have a lynch with chance rather that a No-Lynch with nothing
Rantai
1,000 posts
Joined July 2010
Rantai
Ok. He's making assumptions, within reasonable bounds. Predicting? Sure why not;

And you blatantly dodged the rest of the questions.

Great work.
Rantai
1,000 posts
Joined July 2010
Rantai
Oh 2 more posts turned up.
Amianki
85 posts
Joined January 2011
Amianki

Quaraezha wrote:

I want to assume that everyone has at least one specialty and none of us is a regular townie.
And it would be bad to mislynch someone special.

The're also a possibility of having a fool/jester among the Special Roles too.
^ This post is a big reason why I'm voting this guy BTW.
Rantai
1,000 posts
Joined July 2010
Rantai
And I'd rather give town the most actions at night.

There is a difference between "being too afraid to lynch" (macho complex anyone?) and weighing risk vs reward in a situation. In my case I see a 22% chance of lynching scum against the loss of 2 town not worth it for this setup.
Tsukasa
471 posts
Joined June 2011
Tsukasa
Caligno town, desu
Amianki
85 posts
Joined January 2011
Amianki
Rantai, what is your read on Quaraezha?
Rantai
1,000 posts
Joined July 2010
Rantai
Null.

While I don't like the fact that he keeps alluding to a 3 mafia possibility, whatever he's spouting out right now isn't indicative of much (in relation to role speculation).
Tsukasa
471 posts
Joined June 2011
Tsukasa
Vote: Rantai :V
Rantai
1,000 posts
Joined July 2010
Rantai
Proof right there that your day 1 reads are pretty much worthless ^_^
Tsukasa
471 posts
Joined June 2011
Tsukasa
They actually do >w>
Tsukasa
471 posts
Joined June 2011
Tsukasa
*Actually worth something

Dat wrong wording
Rantai
1,000 posts
Joined July 2010
Rantai
I'll just rub it in later.

Anyway getting past that, Caligno, why is that post scummy to you? (Q's one)

Didn't quite see it explained from you.
VoidnOwO
1,256 posts
Joined August 2012
VoidnOwO
:)
Last edited by VoidnOwO , edited 1 time in total.
Tsukasa
471 posts
Joined June 2011
Tsukasa
OMG BRBP!!!

YES!!!

THAT IS A PERFECT QUESTION!!!

I give you pat on head
pieguyn
2,020 posts
Joined May 2009
pieguyn
here's the problem with considering risk/reward, certain ratios are essentially the same

Consider the ratio 3:1 on a day round. since we must no lynch (otherwise we have a higher chance than necessary of losing), it's the exact same as 2:1 just with another night round. Likewise, 4:2 is the same idea as 3:2. given this setup I'd be 90% certain there's a vigilante or a paranoid gun owner or something along those lines, so if we lynch wrong today it's 6:2 -> 4:2 on D2 and we just have to NL anyway. I prefer to NL today because then we have more information (night actions etc.) before we lynch.
Amianki
85 posts
Joined January 2011
Amianki
Rantai, both the reasons Quar stated in the post I quoted were completely fallacious arguments.

1. It would be bad to mislynch someone special -- He's basically saying that mislynching would be bad, since everyone is special. Saying we shouldn't lynch at all because mislynching would be bad is entirely fallacious and scummy to boot. We can't assume we'll have any way of killing scum without lynching until it's proven otherwise.

2. A special role can be a fool or jester -- This is just scummy noise. He's very clearly all for no lynching and using whatever argument he can in order to get it through. The way he's doing it at this point makes me believe he's scum more than town.
Rantai
1,000 posts
Joined July 2010
Rantai

BRBP wrote:

Question to you more experienced people: If a roleblocker and a vig target the same guy, don't they both think they're the vig the day after? I'm not sure if either of those roles get a confirmation message from their action (killed X or roleblocked X) like trackers etc do. inb4 one says he's a vig and the other guy counter-claims -> we lynch a townie. Not sure if this makes sense or not ;w;
Pretty sure they don't get confirmation for their actions.

While the chances of that happening are even lower than lynching a mafia (consider role pool, chances of 2 people, 1 being a vig, targeting the same person), that would present a very awkward situation. Though I can see a problem if a town targeted the same guy as the mafia faction kill.
pieguyn
2,020 posts
Joined May 2009
pieguyn
mod confirming actions here makes no sense cause then players know what their role is

I'm really not sure what Quaraezha is trying to say. While we may have VTs, we can't exactly stop ourselves from mislynching no matter what happens in this game. Trying to stop it just isn't gonna work.
Amianki
85 posts
Joined January 2011
Amianki
The problem with your proposal, pieguy, is this:

We actually get less information if we no lynch -> lynch than if we lynch -> no lynch.

Like I said before, we gain very little information in nearly all cases based on night actions alone, so we will have to rely on scumhunting. Starting a game with this premise in mind with a no lynch makes very little sense.
pieguyn
2,020 posts
Joined May 2009
pieguyn
can't we just scumhunt on D2 the same way we would D1
I'm not sure exactly what information we'd be losing...
Rantai
1,000 posts
Joined July 2010
Rantai

CalignoBot wrote:

1. It would be bad to mislynch someone special -- He's basically saying that mislynching would be bad, since everyone is special. Saying we shouldn't lynch at all because mislynching would be bad is entirely fallacious and scummy to boot. We can't assume we'll have any way of killing scum without lynching until it's proven otherwise.

2. A special role can be a fool or jester -- This is just scummy noise. He's very clearly all for no lynching and using whatever argument he can in order to get it through. The way he's doing it at this point makes me believe he's scum more than town.
Thanks.

1. I can see where you're coming from. I had interpreted that he was only referring to day 1 (similar to me). That wording does no favours.

2. Okay, that makes sense. I had dismissed it as speculation but your point is valid.
Tsukasa
471 posts
Joined June 2011
Tsukasa
Why are we even adding Vig into the equation?

All I see is town vs scumz.

Treat everyone as a VT unless confirmed
Amianki
85 posts
Joined January 2011
Amianki
I forgot to mention that No Lynching may not even be optimal on D2 depending on what the flips are and any information we get from night actions.

It's delaying information. It's not in town's best interest to delay getting information. With how quickly I can see this game going downhill if we get really bad luck on night actions, I'm very wary of pushing any information we can use to Day 3.

Plus, it's a lot easier to catch scum in later days when the really-early game can be analyzed. We could very easily have at least one person flip and be completely useless to the town if we just no lynch.
Tsukasa
471 posts
Joined June 2011
Tsukasa
Or we could scumhunt as early as D1 which is better >.>
Rantai
1,000 posts
Joined July 2010
Rantai

CalignoBot wrote:

The problem with your proposal, pieguy, is this:

We actually get less information if we no lynch -> lynch than if we lynch -> no lynch.

Like I said before, we gain very little information in nearly all cases based on night actions alone, so we will have to rely on scumhunting. Starting a game with this premise in mind with a no lynch makes very little sense.
Scumhunting on day 1 is weak at best, however. We still have the same information when you think about it (who is for or against no lynch for example). I guess we lose the speculation on who was on the wagon at the time of lynch.

Is it enough to justify it though?
Amianki
85 posts
Joined January 2011
Amianki
I'm a big fan of following votes and wagon D1.

Talking about flips (especially when it won't really get anywhere; which is almost certainly what will happen) and focusing on that is a perfect cover for scum. I would much rather keep that cover from being exploitable.
Tsukasa
471 posts
Joined June 2011
Tsukasa
You know...

We'd rather have a super informative mislynch than a no-dice No-lynch
fartownik
2,189 posts
Joined December 2008
fartownik
Jeez, I hate this feeling when waking up to 3 sites of unread posts.

I see a point in Tsukasa's and Caligno's reasoning for the lynch. The no lynch wasn't confirmed yet, everyone was asked to state their opinions and they did. Looking at this now - no matter if we lynch or nolynch - we will pretty much base on randomness D2 anyways. The night actions will still happen even if we lynch today, but we will start to gather some information about the potential mafia (judging by what the target flips). We can't assume the worst case scenario will happen for sure - we have to try our best to minimalize the chances of it happening. If it happens then fine, we will try to find the best way out tommorrow, but right now we should concentrate on what would be the best to gain at least A LITTLE information. We will have SOME for sure, but it might be biased and totally confusing because of the unknown roles, and it's risky to only base on that.
Rantai
1,000 posts
Joined July 2010
Rantai
Given a generic setup, I'd be agreeing.

But with this setup, I simply believe that we will have more benefit with the NL. (this isn't just applying to cop roles getting stuff at night etc, it also applies to the fact mafia could be nullified unwittingly, kill themselves etc). So it's more of a potential for more information that a wagon could give and the potential for mafia to suicide/get nullified/something else.

My take on it, again.
Amianki
85 posts
Joined January 2011
Amianki
That will happen whether we lynch or not. I don't see why no lynching gives us more information from night actions than not.
Amianki
85 posts
Joined January 2011
Amianki
Ok I kinda just noticed that the sun is coming up.

Maybe I should sleep now.

Voting for Quaraezha is free towncred.
Tanzklaue
1,151 posts
Joined December 2010
Tanzklaue

Tsukasa wrote:

You know...

We'd rather have a super informative mislynch than a no-dice No-lynch
yep, the super-informative "hey we killed a town cop \o\" or the very cool "we got a vig today guyz!"...

I'm indifferent to both propositions at this point, my point about mystery vssecret role still stands, caligno's point about quara makes sense, farTOWNik is still town in my eyes, rantai aand caligno leans town, tsukasa leans scum, the rest is kind of null.

quara: I completly agree with everything caligno said, it really is scummy to push NL with things like "what if jester?".

tsukasa: heavily focusing on me out of a random vote, not addressing the right posts even at times, then all of a sudden going full attack mode on rantai, who brought up several good points, just rubs me in all the wrong spots. from your line of argumentation though, you seem to be aligned with caligno. either you are a obv scum or a much worse town than he is.

so yea, quaraxanyone and tsukasaxanyone are my both leads at this point, though I don't really think that both of them are scum. keep in mind that scum has daychat, so they can organise themselves pretty well. if something looks like it is out of character for one person, or if two people just agree (or disgree) too conveniently, then that might lead us to scum aswell.
Rantai
1,000 posts
Joined July 2010
Rantai
Because on the likely chance of a mislynch, we're down 1 role for relatively weak information.

Yes, that role may or may not have much bearing on the outcome but I'd prefer that role and what info we have from day 1 over a handful of speculative information (+d1).
Tanzklaue
1,151 posts
Joined December 2010
Tanzklaue

CalignoBot wrote:

That will happen whether we lynch or not. I don't see why no lynching gives us more information from night actions than not.
2/3/4/whatever PRs can do more stuff than 1/2/3/whatever-1 PRs can do.

on the other hand, a myslynch only gives us the bitter taste of "look what awesomeness we could've had in this night :/".
Tsukasa
471 posts
Joined June 2011
Tsukasa
Like we're sure we have a cop >.>

And it's called being aggressive. Unlike everyone here being so passive (Except Caligno and a bit of pieguy and rantai though <3) which takes us nowhere.

In addition, Not every town lynch is a bad lynch. Obviously you haven't experienced to have a good mislynch.

And another thing...

Tanzklaue wrote:

Qua: Oh god I agree with Caligno

Tsukasa: Oh god Caligno is stupidly bad town
>.>
Tanzklaue
1,151 posts
Joined December 2010
Tanzklaue

Tsukasa wrote:

Tanzklaue wrote:

Qua: Oh god I agree with Caligno

Tsukasa: Oh god Caligno is stupidly bad town
>.>
I said you are stupidly bad town.

lrn2read scum.
fartownik
2,189 posts
Joined December 2008
fartownik
Also I doubt there's a Jester in the game. How would Jester know he should get lynched when he has no information of his own role? He would only get the information that he's a 3rd party, which could basically mean he's: a Survivor or a Jester when Secret Role - how should he know if he should get lynched or avoid getting killed at all costs? This seems unfair; and a Serial Killer/Arsonist/Inquistor when Mystery. If there's any third party it's most likely a killing role.
Tanzklaue
1,151 posts
Joined December 2010
Tanzklaue
my point was, though I lean town for caligno, I don't disclose the possibility of you and caligno being a scumteam. it seems to be the most likely out of all the high Wifom-scumteams.
Tsukasa
471 posts
Joined June 2011
Tsukasa

Tanzklaue wrote:

tsukasa: heavily focusing on me out of a random vote, not addressing the right posts even at times, then all of a sudden going full attack mode on rantai, who brought up several good points, just rubs me in all the wrong spots. from your line of argumentation though, you seem to be aligned with caligno. either you are a obv scum or a much worse town than he is.

Tanzklaue wrote:

a much worse town than he is.

Tanzklaue wrote:

than he is.
Tanzklaue
1,151 posts
Joined December 2010
Tanzklaue
which implies that he is a good townie.

what is your problem?
Quaraezha
1,491 posts
Joined February 2011
Quaraezha
I'm still pushing No Lynch.

We can't really obtain anything from the information a mislynch can give us.
If anything, that just narrows down the possibilities of OUR roles.
ie if doc dies, none of us can't be doc.
It's pretty much the same information we get from a nightkill.
And having 2 town deaths won't do much.

And as I mentioned, everyone is most likely a non-regular role.
So it's best to benefit from their specialty while it's still early.

I'd rather hear his report on D2 than know his role from a mislynch.
Despite both not really being much, but it's enough to go on by D2.
Tsukasa
471 posts
Joined June 2011
Tsukasa
Uh... The way you used it implies that he's a bad townie, and I'm worse than him. That is what those words will mean.
Rantai
1,000 posts
Joined July 2010
Rantai
It can be read both ways to be fair.
Tsukasa
471 posts
Joined June 2011
Tsukasa
all this grammar stuff aside...

Another thing about it is the slight possibility of a scum PR.

Meaning he could pretty much slide to victory for thinking him a town
Tanzklaue
1,151 posts
Joined December 2010
Tanzklaue
I'm pretty sure those words mean that you are a much worse townie than he is.

I build up my opinion about caligno, which is that he is an incredible townie (which partly is the reason for me to follow him on his reads on quara). really, the only thing I said is that you are on the same side with him, so if you flip scum I will have a strong believe for him being scum aswell.
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