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Mystery Mafia (Town Win!)

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Amianki
The problem with your proposal, pieguy, is this:

We actually get less information if we no lynch -> lynch than if we lynch -> no lynch.

Like I said before, we gain very little information in nearly all cases based on night actions alone, so we will have to rely on scumhunting. Starting a game with this premise in mind with a no lynch makes very little sense.
pieguyn
can't we just scumhunt on D2 the same way we would D1
I'm not sure exactly what information we'd be losing...
Rantai

CalignoBot wrote:

1. It would be bad to mislynch someone special -- He's basically saying that mislynching would be bad, since everyone is special. Saying we shouldn't lynch at all because mislynching would be bad is entirely fallacious and scummy to boot. We can't assume we'll have any way of killing scum without lynching until it's proven otherwise.

2. A special role can be a fool or jester -- This is just scummy noise. He's very clearly all for no lynching and using whatever argument he can in order to get it through. The way he's doing it at this point makes me believe he's scum more than town.
Thanks.

1. I can see where you're coming from. I had interpreted that he was only referring to day 1 (similar to me). That wording does no favours.

2. Okay, that makes sense. I had dismissed it as speculation but your point is valid.
Tsukasa
Why are we even adding Vig into the equation?

All I see is town vs scumz.

Treat everyone as a VT unless confirmed
Amianki
I forgot to mention that No Lynching may not even be optimal on D2 depending on what the flips are and any information we get from night actions.

It's delaying information. It's not in town's best interest to delay getting information. With how quickly I can see this game going downhill if we get really bad luck on night actions, I'm very wary of pushing any information we can use to Day 3.

Plus, it's a lot easier to catch scum in later days when the really-early game can be analyzed. We could very easily have at least one person flip and be completely useless to the town if we just no lynch.
Tsukasa
Or we could scumhunt as early as D1 which is better >.>
Rantai

CalignoBot wrote:

The problem with your proposal, pieguy, is this:

We actually get less information if we no lynch -> lynch than if we lynch -> no lynch.

Like I said before, we gain very little information in nearly all cases based on night actions alone, so we will have to rely on scumhunting. Starting a game with this premise in mind with a no lynch makes very little sense.
Scumhunting on day 1 is weak at best, however. We still have the same information when you think about it (who is for or against no lynch for example). I guess we lose the speculation on who was on the wagon at the time of lynch.

Is it enough to justify it though?
Amianki
I'm a big fan of following votes and wagon D1.

Talking about flips (especially when it won't really get anywhere; which is almost certainly what will happen) and focusing on that is a perfect cover for scum. I would much rather keep that cover from being exploitable.
Tsukasa
You know...

We'd rather have a super informative mislynch than a no-dice No-lynch
fartownik
Jeez, I hate this feeling when waking up to 3 sites of unread posts.

I see a point in Tsukasa's and Caligno's reasoning for the lynch. The no lynch wasn't confirmed yet, everyone was asked to state their opinions and they did. Looking at this now - no matter if we lynch or nolynch - we will pretty much base on randomness D2 anyways. The night actions will still happen even if we lynch today, but we will start to gather some information about the potential mafia (judging by what the target flips). We can't assume the worst case scenario will happen for sure - we have to try our best to minimalize the chances of it happening. If it happens then fine, we will try to find the best way out tommorrow, but right now we should concentrate on what would be the best to gain at least A LITTLE information. We will have SOME for sure, but it might be biased and totally confusing because of the unknown roles, and it's risky to only base on that.
Rantai
Given a generic setup, I'd be agreeing.

But with this setup, I simply believe that we will have more benefit with the NL. (this isn't just applying to cop roles getting stuff at night etc, it also applies to the fact mafia could be nullified unwittingly, kill themselves etc). So it's more of a potential for more information that a wagon could give and the potential for mafia to suicide/get nullified/something else.

My take on it, again.
Amianki
That will happen whether we lynch or not. I don't see why no lynching gives us more information from night actions than not.
Amianki
Ok I kinda just noticed that the sun is coming up.

Maybe I should sleep now.

Voting for Quaraezha is free towncred.
Tanzklaue

Tsukasa wrote:

You know...

We'd rather have a super informative mislynch than a no-dice No-lynch
yep, the super-informative "hey we killed a town cop \o\" or the very cool "we got a vig today guyz!"...

I'm indifferent to both propositions at this point, my point about mystery vssecret role still stands, caligno's point about quara makes sense, farTOWNik is still town in my eyes, rantai aand caligno leans town, tsukasa leans scum, the rest is kind of null.

quara: I completly agree with everything caligno said, it really is scummy to push NL with things like "what if jester?".

tsukasa: heavily focusing on me out of a random vote, not addressing the right posts even at times, then all of a sudden going full attack mode on rantai, who brought up several good points, just rubs me in all the wrong spots. from your line of argumentation though, you seem to be aligned with caligno. either you are a obv scum or a much worse town than he is.

so yea, quaraxanyone and tsukasaxanyone are my both leads at this point, though I don't really think that both of them are scum. keep in mind that scum has daychat, so they can organise themselves pretty well. if something looks like it is out of character for one person, or if two people just agree (or disgree) too conveniently, then that might lead us to scum aswell.
Rantai
Because on the likely chance of a mislynch, we're down 1 role for relatively weak information.

Yes, that role may or may not have much bearing on the outcome but I'd prefer that role and what info we have from day 1 over a handful of speculative information (+d1).
Tanzklaue

CalignoBot wrote:

That will happen whether we lynch or not. I don't see why no lynching gives us more information from night actions than not.
2/3/4/whatever PRs can do more stuff than 1/2/3/whatever-1 PRs can do.

on the other hand, a myslynch only gives us the bitter taste of "look what awesomeness we could've had in this night :/".
Tsukasa
Like we're sure we have a cop >.>

And it's called being aggressive. Unlike everyone here being so passive (Except Caligno and a bit of pieguy and rantai though <3) which takes us nowhere.

In addition, Not every town lynch is a bad lynch. Obviously you haven't experienced to have a good mislynch.

And another thing...

Tanzklaue wrote:

Qua: Oh god I agree with Caligno

Tsukasa: Oh god Caligno is stupidly bad town
>.>
Tanzklaue

Tsukasa wrote:

Tanzklaue wrote:

Qua: Oh god I agree with Caligno

Tsukasa: Oh god Caligno is stupidly bad town
>.>
I said you are stupidly bad town.

lrn2read scum.
fartownik
Also I doubt there's a Jester in the game. How would Jester know he should get lynched when he has no information of his own role? He would only get the information that he's a 3rd party, which could basically mean he's: a Survivor or a Jester when Secret Role - how should he know if he should get lynched or avoid getting killed at all costs? This seems unfair; and a Serial Killer/Arsonist/Inquistor when Mystery. If there's any third party it's most likely a killing role.
Tanzklaue
my point was, though I lean town for caligno, I don't disclose the possibility of you and caligno being a scumteam. it seems to be the most likely out of all the high Wifom-scumteams.
Tsukasa

Tanzklaue wrote:

tsukasa: heavily focusing on me out of a random vote, not addressing the right posts even at times, then all of a sudden going full attack mode on rantai, who brought up several good points, just rubs me in all the wrong spots. from your line of argumentation though, you seem to be aligned with caligno. either you are a obv scum or a much worse town than he is.

Tanzklaue wrote:

a much worse town than he is.

Tanzklaue wrote:

than he is.
Tanzklaue
which implies that he is a good townie.

what is your problem?
Quaraezha
I'm still pushing No Lynch.

We can't really obtain anything from the information a mislynch can give us.
If anything, that just narrows down the possibilities of OUR roles.
ie if doc dies, none of us can't be doc.
It's pretty much the same information we get from a nightkill.
And having 2 town deaths won't do much.

And as I mentioned, everyone is most likely a non-regular role.
So it's best to benefit from their specialty while it's still early.

I'd rather hear his report on D2 than know his role from a mislynch.
Despite both not really being much, but it's enough to go on by D2.
Tsukasa
Uh... The way you used it implies that he's a bad townie, and I'm worse than him. That is what those words will mean.
Rantai
It can be read both ways to be fair.
Tsukasa
all this grammar stuff aside...

Another thing about it is the slight possibility of a scum PR.

Meaning he could pretty much slide to victory for thinking him a town
Tanzklaue
I'm pretty sure those words mean that you are a much worse townie than he is.

I build up my opinion about caligno, which is that he is an incredible townie (which partly is the reason for me to follow him on his reads on quara). really, the only thing I said is that you are on the same side with him, so if you flip scum I will have a strong believe for him being scum aswell.
Raging Bull
jesus christ reading.
Rantai

Tsukasa wrote:

all this grammar stuff aside...

Another thing about it is the slight possibility of a scum PR.

Meaning he could pretty much slide to victory for thinking him a town
I think that scum PR is implied in this game. A PR claim won't necessarily be a town-read.
Tsukasa
But we will read it as a PR-cred.

And people being paranoid of lynching PRs
Rantai
Then again, everyone is a pr of sorts so it has less bearing than other games.

That and there are obviously ways to determine who to lynch (inconsistencies for one).
Quaraezha
Having reports is still better than no reports. Especially in this setup.
That and scumhunting should be enough for us to lynch mafia. Especially when there are contradictions.
Tsukasa
We'll have our reports regardless of a lynch or not
Tsukasa
What I'm saying is I'd like a chance of having double info than just single info
Quaraezha

Tanzklaue wrote:

on the other hand, a myslynch only gives us the bitter taste of "look what awesomeness we could've had in this night :/".
Raging Bull

Tsukasa wrote:

Raging Bull wrote:

Yes I'm secret role. Not like that would give much away, especially since I don't even know if I'm VT or some passive ability.
DON'T YOU FOLLOW BRO!!!
Not sure what you mean here.

pieguy1372 wrote:

can't we just scumhunt on D2 the same way we would D1
I'm not sure exactly what information we'd be losing...
Seems like a waste of a day to me if we just scumhunt in D2, why not just start now instead?


stuff stuff stuff


I just don't think no lynching is a good idea. Why waste a day where we can have a potential to kill scum? Plus no one mentions if mafia were to shoot paranoid gun owner. People seem to only mention two town deaths. And if there is a vigilante, what if he shoots scum? Maybe I just don't think worst case scenarios like you guys do.
Rantai

Raging Bull wrote:

I just don't think no lynching is a good idea. Why waste a day where we can have a potential to kill scum? Plus no one mentions if mafia were to shoot paranoid gun owner. People seem to only mention two town deaths. And if there is a vigilante, what if he shoots scum? Maybe I just don't think worst case scenarios like you guys do.

Rantai wrote:

(this isn't just applying to cop roles getting stuff at night etc, it also applies to the fact mafia could be nullified unwittingly, kill themselves etc). So it's more of a potential for more information that a wagon could give and the potential for mafia to suicide/get nullified/something else.
I do mention it, but I suspect you mean it in the context of lynching.
Raging Bull
I didn't say everyone, dear :D I know you think outside the box.
Rantai
Come join the no lynch party.

Oh god I need to stop watching politics
Raging Bull
Well I'm thinking about it


@tsukasa, Just wondering, but what information can you get if it was a town that was lynched instead of mafia?
Tsukasa
Information that are not limited to

1) Scumz on wagon
2) Scum hammer-Town hammer difference
3) Scum-Scum Relationship
4) Town-Scum Relationship
5) Decrease in scumpool
6) The potential of actually lessening mislynch when a wagon is currently active (Meaning It's still not lynched but probably about to, unless some undeniable force acts on it)
Quaraezha
Not to mention knowing the role that you aren't after Kanye reveals them.
Raging Bull

Tsukasa wrote:

Information that are not limited to

1) Scumz on wagon
2) Scum hammer-Town hammer difference
3) Scum-Scum Relationship
4) Town-Scum Relationship
5) Decrease in scumpool
6) The potential of actually lessening mislynch when a wagon is currently active (Meaning It's still not lynched but probably about to, unless some undeniable force acts on it)
The way I see it, seems like "Interesting N1 vs information now" :<


@mod, what's the vote count?
Also

Raging Bull wrote:

@mod, is there a third party?
I tend to go off OP words ( which probably isn't a good idea) but Q's throwing "what if jester/fool" is just suspicious to me.
Quaraezha

Raging Bull wrote:

I tend to go off OP words ( which probably isn't a good idea) but Q's throwing "what if jester/fool" is just suspicious to me.
I guess I played too much Random Setups in EpicMafia. Got used to playing a setup that has 3rd parties.
Amianki
I'll respond to what happened overnight in more depth a bit later, but I just woke up so I won't do it right now.

Tanzklaue is probably scum too. He's pinging one of my secret scumtells pretty hard and a couple of his arguments are really scummy.

I'm really not liking all the sheeping of my Quaraezha points, yet no one acting on them. This looks like scum positioning.
Tanzklaue

CalignoBot wrote:

I'm really not liking all the sheeping of my Quaraezha points, yet no one acting on them. This looks like scum positioning.
reason for that is that we are atm discussing if we no lynch or if we lynch someone.
Amianki
We've wasted half of the game day debating this with no conclusion.

It's time to actually do something. Either vote for people you think are scummy or vote no lynch. There's no town motivation at all in doing nothing but debating this, especially at this point.
Tanzklaue
Vote: No Lynch

I know you will give me even more scumcred for that, but I honestly don't see anyone else who is lynchworthy at this point.

Mod: votecount and remaining time, please.
fartownik
Vote: Tanzklaue

Back to my previous suspect. Unvoted because thought nolynch would be a better idea, but changed my mind. Also him being 'very sure' of me being Town might be a play to get me off his back (at least I felt it this way).
Tanzklaue
or it might mean that I am pretty sure that you are town.
Tanzklaue
I would btw. vote myself too if I weren't I. I know I am town, but I played so horrendously bad up until now that there isn't much reason not to do it.

the claim was really dumb, although it happened because I woke up from a rough night, and my defense wasn't the best either. noone should give too much on me being a mystery role, though I still believe that mystery is better than secret.

however, I still think NL is a better alternative. because I am town, and me, yadda yadda. there is no way to tell who is scum at this point, and lynching a bad townie won't give you any information. in the end, who can blame anyone on the waggon for voting someone who basically begged to be lynched? there isn't much you would get with a lynch on me. I have nothing against you lynching me, like I said, I basically caused the trouble myself, but lynching me won't help town one bit.

I also still have tsukasa under suspicion, and caligno also changed my read on him. tsukasa hung up on a relative minor slip, and it seemed more like he wanted to turn his RV into a quick townie-lynch. caligno on the other hand pressures quara heavily, downright saying that he is scum. while his points make sense to me, I don't really think that quara and tsukasa are both scum. they act too differently from each other and too independently to be both scum. caligno also pressures me, which just rubs me the wrong way, since noone else but tsukasa (and fart, who I think is town) really cares all too much about my slip and the suspicion against me. on the contrary, other people questioned tsukasas action, and his vote on rantai for, again, not really anything, and his towncredgiving to anyone who just votes someone is, for me, scummy. so my question is: why would you try to jump on/build a wagon with someone who has questionable views and arguments and one other, though more town, guy?
Amianki
I don't know what slip you're talking about. I'm pretty sure I haven't divulged anything about why I think you're scum yet.
Tanzklaue
the claimslip. it's not a scumslip, since I needed to be scum to scumslip, but it's a slip nonetheless. and it also was pretty dumb.
Amianki
Oh.

That's alignment-neutral.
Tanzklaue

CalignoBot wrote:

Oh.

That's alignment-neutral.
what's alignment neutral?
Amianki
The claim.
VoidnOwO
:)
Tanzklaue

CalignoBot wrote:

The claim.
then tsukasa should read for you as scum I suppose? since he attacked the claim directly?

you talked about pinging a secret scumread, and whether pinging means attacking or defending, you mean either fart or tsukasa. I didn't utter any read about anyone else (except you, but why should you scumread yourself?)

@BRBP: I try to fix the mess my 13 o'clock self left here.
Amianki

Tanzklaue wrote:

CalignoBot wrote:

The claim.
you talked about pinging a secret scumread, and whether pinging means attacking or defending, you mean either fart or tsukasa. I didn't utter any read about anyone else (except you, but why should you scumread yourself?)
I don't understand what this means. All pinging meant in that post was basically committing.

Saying that people who attack something that's town or neutral are scum is fallacious. It's not that black and white.

(I have a null read on Tsukasa)
Tanzklaue
I already explained why I think tsukasa is scum.

I honestly didn't know what you meant with that pinging stuff, I'm not horrendous at english, but not that fluent at it either.

like I said, if you think I am scum, I can't blame you, I messed up already. I am town, but I don't think there is that much that I can say to defend myself. I don't think that you can get any useful read from a waggon on me, I already explained why.
pieguyn
sorry I haven't been posting I've been setting up the Touhou mafia
brb reading the whole thread again
pieguyn
in the meantime unvote cause I just saw I still have NL voted rofl
pieguyn
wait what the hell am I even saying, I already set it up obv, I'm mostly just too tired to do anything right now cause it's 2:21 PM and I've been up since 8:30 PM yesterday

anyway, cut to the chase
after thinking about it NL might not be such a good idea cause there might not even be a vig/PGO or they both might kill someone. also seems it would delay information, it'd be better to get the game moving just so new stuff can happen
okay I swear I saw a post by RB saying that he was for NL and then I saw a post saying that he didn't think NL was a good idea. also seems RB isn't posting quite as much as the others. also Qua was all for NL then said something like "scumhunting should be enough for us to lynch mafia" which I'm not even sure how that could work together..
Tsukasa seems to be actually doing stuff so he's town for me. Caligno seems to be doing stuff too, I think Rantai is town for reasons, and imo fartownik is leaning town for me due to gut feeling. also it's reasonable to think that Tanz just screwed up or wasn't paying attention or was tired etc.
we've spent all this time just arguing over NL or not NL, we need to do something
vote: RB see above for the idea, also it's my gut feeling. if anyone sees something wrong with my analysis let me know plz cause I probably messed something up
Tanzklaue
so everyone is now either voting no lynch or one person and noone actually has multiple votes on him, do I see that right?
pieguyn
I thoguht Qua had 2 votes unless Caligno unvoted him
Tanzklaue
I don't know, there is no vote count to easily check this.

I go through the thread and make n improvised one.
Tanzklaue
No Lynch: quara, me
quara: BRBP, caligno
rantai: tsukasa
RB: pieguy
me: fart

if there is an error, say it.
pieguyn
you know something, Caligno said Tanz was pinging some "secret mafia vibes", but afaik caligno only played one game so far and Tanz was town that game
unvote vote: Caligno
Tanzklaue
lincolm said that he was someone? and sakura was impressed, so he probably is either an oldfag or a big guy in the mafiascene.
Tanzklaue
he still only played one game here, I think. and definetly only one game with me.
Tanzklaue
he also could get those vibes out of experience, if he judges me right. I don't think personally that it is a real reason you can attack him for.
pieguyn
Tanz & Caligno best scumteam 2013 :P
srsly, I wanna see what he says first
Tanzklaue
I think I should stop posting here honestly, I am not any better than I was earlier today :/
Amianki
I have experience off this site, yes. I'd link to my wiki page, but it hasn't really been updated in a couple years.

The specific tell I'm seeing here was something subtle I used to win my first game as mafia. I've noticed in other games that town really don't do this. It's a player-irrelevant tell.

I'm not going to reveal exactly what it is, though, since then it won't be effective anymore.
fartownik
@pieguy: I had a gut feeling on RB as well, so it might be not that stupid. I thought Tanz would be more suitable for now, but that long post of his defending himself made me confused.
fartownik
Also I will be heading to the bed, won't post for next 8 hours or so.
pieguyn
k unvote vote: RB
fartownik, even if I say you're town, you're doing exactly what I remember you doing as mafia (following what everyone else says) :P
Tanzklaue

CalignoBot wrote:

I have experience off this site, yes. I'd link to my wiki page, but it hasn't really been updated in a couple years.

The specific tell I'm seeing here was something subtle I used to win my first game as mafia. I've noticed in other games that town really don't do this. It's a player-irrelevant tell.

I'm not going to reveal exactly what it is, though, since then it won't be effective anymore.
how can you use a scumtell as mafia to win the game?
fartownik

pieguy1372 wrote:

k unvote vote: RB
fartownik, even if I say you're town, you're doing exactly what I remember you doing as mafia (following what everyone else says) :P
Can I know what it is then?

Also
Unvote
Vote: RB
Amianki
It was something I used to help me win, and I saw later that other people did it as well. I have yet to see town do this.
Tanzklaue
so you say that it is a specific error you did and it helped you win the game?
pieguyn
I assume you meant Caligno and not me cause my reason was right there in the post
Tanzklaue
I meant caligno, yes.
pieguyn
that was directed at fartownik @_@
Amianki
I don't understand where you got error from.
Tanzklaue
guys, let's say the name of the guy we're talking too, else it is confusing.
Tanzklaue

CalignoBot wrote:

I don't understand where you got error from.
because if it is something that you can see scum doing, and you could tell that they are scum from that tell, then it has to be an error or a slip of some sorts I imagine.

just tell us what your superspecial tell is. we can evaluate (and understand) it then.
fartownik
@pieguy: I wanted to know exactly what it was, but I guess it's just in general so nvm that.
fartownik
EBWOP: I take a 'final look' at the mafia thread, I post and then want to leave but there's another new post in the other game :< I will never go sleep this way.
pieguyn
Tanz the whole point of a secret tell is that once people know what it is they don't do it anymore making it useless
fartownik: I noticed it in a few points (too lazy and tired to go pointing out each one) and then you immediately came up with RB out of nowhere right after I did..
Tanzklaue

pieguy1372 wrote:

Tanz the whole point of a secret tell is that once people know what it is they don't do it anymore making it useless
and my point is that his secret tell isn't worth a damn thing if he doesn't say what it is. might just as well be made up
pieguyn
as someone who uses secret tells I can assure you they exist :P
I can understand people not believing in them quite as much but for someone like me they're worth something..
Tanzklaue
and I am still intrigued in what actually is his tell.

because he contradicted himself. he said he used that secret tell to win his first game AS mafia. but how in the world do you use a secret tell against mafia to win as mafia? that's my point.
Tanzklaue
I know that secret tells exist, but you normally don't say "hey guys, I have a secret tell on him!"
fartownik

pieguy1372 wrote:

fartownik: I noticed it in a few points (too lazy and tired to go pointing out each one) and then you immediately came up with RB out of nowhere right after I did..
You might seem it as 'out of nowhere', but I had him in mind for some time already. It was just a random reply as you mentioned him, I would do that tomorrow anyways. I was just glad someone else had the same gut feeling as me.

RB is just awkwardly quiet. I like to think the mafia is usually the person you least expect him to be, especially in the game with only experienced players. From that RB would be the one I could throw off the hat.
pieguyn
Tanz: probably it's some trick that only mafia can do
Tanzklaue

pieguy1372 wrote:

Tanz: probably it's some trick that only mafia can do
but I'm not mafia.

did I play this bad that I even mess with the secret tells of people now?

Unvote
things have changed. maybe lynching isn't as bad as I thought.
fartownik
@Tanz: saying you're not mafia all the time won't really do anything. People can't believe your word so it's useless, even if your intentions are 100% true. That's how this game works...
fartownik
EBWOP: Good night.
Tanzklaue
I know that, I just have not much else to say to really defend myself. I already said everything I had to say.
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