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Stacking the Deck - (Game Over - Town Win)

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Amianki
85 posts
Joined January 2011
Amianki
Agh. I was sure Haneii would flip scum.

I need to rethink this, fartownik in particular. I want to be sure I have a solid read in him before making any sort of decision today.
Rantai
1,000 posts
Joined July 2010
Rantai
Well it's very clear our JK decided not to protect our vig (WHY?). Even if we said choose randomly it was very clear RB was the more important of us 2 =.=

Vote: Jinxy

Not moving that vote unless something significant happens.
Rantai
1,000 posts
Joined July 2010
Rantai
For the record I think the scum are Jinxy, DD and either Caligno or Pieguy.

Caligno simply because it's very easy to post a lot and mislead town due to sheer volume (especially with reads which is more of a task of convincing opposed to proving). Pieguy because why.

Jinxy/DD already explained.
Rantai
1,000 posts
Joined July 2010
Rantai
Also; pieguy who did you target and why, fat who did you target and what did you get.
Amianki
85 posts
Joined January 2011
Amianki
No. The only way pieguy is scum is if fartownik is scum. The claim that fartownik was jailed N1 confirms this.
fartownik
2,189 posts
Joined December 2008
fartownik
I watched you, Rantai, and saw pieguy targeting you. I have no idea myself why he didn't protect RB though. It was obvious we should keep RB alive as long as possible. Maybe he thought scum would think the exact same and he switched the targets to prevent the nightkill? Sounds a bit risky though...

The fact is that he targeted me, but the action itself is unknown. Wanna hear from pieguy why he did it.
Rantai
1,000 posts
Joined July 2010
Rantai
Oh yeah that's right, forgot about that action.

Then just Caligno then.
pieguyn
2,020 posts
Joined May 2009
pieguyn
saying that you flipped a coin and acted on that is fine
Pretty much this. I didn't want to bother with all the WIFOM, so I tried this instead and it ended up being Rantai. I'm quite sure it won't have much of an effect on anything since it's LyLo anyway, but oh well.

I bet it's probably DakeDekaane still, but now I'm even more suspicious of JInxy, cause he bandwagoned on Haneii, plus IIRC he didn't contribute anything new really on D2. Also, he hasn't posted much which is the same as I remember him always doing as scum. :?
DakeDekaane
osu! Alumni
3,500 posts
Joined February 2012
DakeDekaane
Well, Haneii turned town, then I should go for my other suspect.
Vote: Jinxy

I'll keep my eye on pieguy though, the way he changed his target is a bit~ weird imo.
fart, why you watched Rantai?
Sakura
osu! Alumni
7,979 posts
Joined March 2010
Topic Starter
Sakura
Vote Count 3.01

(L-2) Jinxy (2) - Rantai, DakeDekaane

Not Voting (5) - Tanzklaue, fartownik, CalignoBot, Jinxy, pieguy1372

With 7 Alive it takes 4 to lynch.

Please let me know if you see any mistakes
Amianki
85 posts
Joined January 2011
Amianki
Rantai, are you absolutely sure about this? I'm getting a very bad feeling about this wagon with the DakeDekaane vote.
Jinxy
2,777 posts
Joined February 2009
Jinxy
Ok, let's see here...

Rantai wrote:

His ISO is rife with parroting and/or jumping in behind another accusation. As much as I don't like DD's play so far, Jinxy is even more uncomfortable. That and he was still one of the non voters and first for the plan so I'm more or less satisfied with that for now (explanation can merely be a cover, considering the insight provided).
I did ask for examples, but regardless, any form of "parroting" you say I did is because I agree the plan would work/the accusation is valid. For NH's plan, the insight provided when I ran the numbers was that town stood to gain more when all the information added up, even if the only thing maf gained could be considered to have a bit more weightage.

pieguy1372 wrote:

I bet it's probably DakeDekaane still, but now I'm even more suspicious of JInxy, cause he bandwagoned on Haneii, plus IIRC he didn't contribute anything new really on D2. Also, he hasn't posted much which is the same as I remember him always doing as scum. :?
I don't know how you came to the wagoning conclusion, considering I voted eons after Irre/Caligno. Ironically enough, the reason I voted Haneii was precisely because she was wagoning on me right after Rantai.
In D2, people made plans, I checked it, decided it was sound, and agreed with. I'm not the kind of guy who can come up with plans if I don't have a basis(improvement of another plan, etc) to work on. I don't see how this is instantly a scum trait, not everyone can come up with plans.

Now, in my perspective, the only possibilities remaining are that every other unconf is scum, or fart is + 2 unconf, or fart and pieguy both are + 1 unconf. I highly doubt the last one, but I'm not going to disregard the second one. Considering the votes are coming pretty fast now, I'm going back to my original suspect before Haneii's scummy posts.

Vote: DD
fartownik
2,189 posts
Joined December 2008
fartownik

DakeDekaane wrote:

fart, why you watched Rantai?
Erm, because I thought he's going to get lynched?

My suspects at the moment are JInxy and Dake to some extent, though I can't deny the possibility of Caligno being scum as well. His actions seemed pretty pro-town, but by PoE he's the only one (not counting JInxy and Dake) that could be either scum or a Traitor. Tanz is still a townread, but I can't be sure of anything anymore.

JInxy's Haneii push and general weird behavior throughout the entire game (not compatible with his regular town meta) made me suspicious. He's an underdog already, along with DD, whom I was suspecting back in D2 and I also suspect him right now because of PoE.
Rantai
1,000 posts
Joined July 2010
Rantai

CalignoBot wrote:

Rantai, are you absolutely sure about this? I'm getting a very bad feeling about this wagon with the DakeDekaane vote.

More sure than that Haneii wagon.

Also considering that everyone except Tanz has posted and no ninja hammer has occurred I'm going to say it's a fairly safe bet (I am going to say Tanz stands more town than scum, but that isn't much to go by unfortunately).

SPOILER
@Jinxy - p/2387466/ - pointless reiteration, the point was made
p/2396642/ - jumping onto NH's pressure

The only thing giving me pause is the fact that he completely tunnel visioned Haneii the entire game. That's one aggressive scum.

At this stage though we have nothing to work on as both our PR's whiffed and cross confirmed each other again. They could be scum together for all I know.
Rantai
1,000 posts
Joined July 2010
Rantai
@Caligno - well actually, if you feel stronger about DD then I can go with that too.

I'll only vote for him to hammer though because I'd want to make sure that the others can make their own conclusions first.
Jinxy
2,777 posts
Joined February 2009
Jinxy

Rantai wrote:

@Jinxy - p/2387466/ - pointless reiteration, the point was made
p/2396642/ - jumping onto NH's pressure
For the first one, I didn't think NH answered that question at all so I added in.

NoHitter wrote:

Haneii wrote:

That isn't the only lie [scum] can make. They can say they don't have a power role when they do.
That's why we only lynch suspicious PRs. After we lynch them, we lynch the non-PRs based on how scummy they are.
For the second one, I was replying to Dake's post above and pointing out where exactly the flip-flop was for other people.
pieguyn
2,020 posts
Joined May 2009
pieguyn
Okay I seriously have no idea what to do here

if anyone's a Tracker, claim now plz

I seriously think it's either JInxy or DakeDekaane, if not both of them. in fact, it has to be cause otherwise scum would have hammered by now and won.

now I wonder about Caligno. someone made a point D1 of how Irre was acting even more ridiculous than in previous games, and currently it seems to me like Caligno is hesitating way too much. and it seems he's kind of misleading a bit, not only with Haneii, but I got confused just reading some of his huge posts.
Rantai
1,000 posts
Joined July 2010
Rantai
Jinxy, yes he could have been hammered by now.

DD, while likely, no because Jinxy is scum (can't ninja hammer if scum initiates).
Rantai
1,000 posts
Joined July 2010
Rantai
Likely to be scum*
DakeDekaane
osu! Alumni
3,500 posts
Joined February 2012
DakeDekaane
I doubt there's a tracker here, if there is, he should be at least tracked any of the PRs and found an inconsistency, and we'd have ended this day quickly, but it seems this is not the case. And it'd be pretty stupid for scum voting each other in LyLo.

Now let's see~

Rantai is the only confirmed town left.
pieguy/fartownik are claimed PRs who God knows if any of them scum of not.
Tanz/Jinxy/Caligno/DD(me) are the non-PRs left.

Tanz looks pretty townie.
Caligno is tainted with Irre's behaviour.
Jinxy is still null and pushed Haneii too much imo and I'm pretty sure he's scum by PoE.

There are 3 scum left, they can't be in all of non-PR. There should be at least 1 in the claimed PR, even both, but we can't take the risk of lynching any of them, as if we miss, we're dead.
pieguy was keeping his will on protecting RB and it seems he protected Rantai in the end.
fart went for Rantai as it seemed pieguy was seriously to protect RB.
Rantai
1,000 posts
Joined July 2010
Rantai

DakeDekaane wrote:

And it'd be pretty stupid for scum voting each other in LyLo.
How so? Distance voting is always popular.
Amianki
85 posts
Joined January 2011
Amianki

pieguy1372 wrote:

now I wonder about Caligno. someone made a point D1 of how Irre was acting even more ridiculous than in previous games, and currently it seems to me like Caligno is hesitating way too much. and it seems he's kind of misleading a bit, not only with Haneii, but I got confused just reading some of his huge posts.
This situation is a lot different than Day 2. There's an inherent risk of scum piling on in a lynch for an instant win, so I want to make sure that we come to a clear consensus before making any possibly game-ending decisions.
Sakura
osu! Alumni
7,979 posts
Joined March 2010
Topic Starter
Sakura
Vote Count 3.02

(L-2) Jinxy (2) - Rantai, DakeDekaane
DakeDekaane (1) - Jinxy

Not Voting (4) - Tanzklaue, fartownik, CalignoBot, pieguy1372

With 7 Alive it takes 4 to lynch.

Please let me know if you see any mistakes
Tanzklaue
1,151 posts
Joined December 2010
Tanzklaue

Rantai wrote:

Also considering that everyone except Tanz has posted and no ninja hammer has occurred I'm going to say it's a fairly safe bet (I am going to say Tanz stands more town than scum, but that isn't much to go by unfortunately).
I was asleep, sorry.

the situation is pretty dire. we again have the situation of our PRs having convenient claims, thus completly useless for us. we had the chance to confirm pieguy, and he should've known that jailkeeping RB is the only sound thing to do.

then we have the problem of scum shooting RB. overall, the chance of mafia targetting him and not getting watched or blocked was 25%. add to that the unlikeliness of pieguy not jking RB, and I think we can see that this turn of events, the worst possible case for town, was really unlikely. without saying much more, I'm highely suspicious.

then caligno. yes he could be scum in disguise. but I don't think that he is. why? I think it's safe to assume that he is the best player in this round. I don't think that he would act the way he did if he was scum. he seems to be taken aback that his assumptions turned out wrong. I don't think any experienced player would make himself this vulnerable.

then we have jinxy and DD. I think that if jinxy was town, he would be dead by now and we would've lost. because ninja hammer. DD on the other hand didn't get ninja hammered. this shows even more that jinxy should be the scum, as mafia doesn't have the 3 votes they need to ninja lynch him. of course there is also the case of crossvoting, if both of them are scum. in which case the question arises: who is the third scum? fart or caligno?

I am highly suspicious of fart and pieguy at this point, and jinxy seems to be scum aswell. I don't think caligno is scum, and DD is at least a little bit less likely to be scum than jinxy is.
Rantai
1,000 posts
Joined July 2010
Rantai
Bear in mind quantity =/= quality.

In some cases it will be an analysis that takes everything into account (that's good), sometimes a fluff post (ie thread summary with a little bit of insight here and there) or simply a distraction post made to look town but has absolutely nothing in it/has misleading information.

I haven't quite made my mind up about Caligno just yet but it's very naive to believe he is town simply because he "was taken aback" (especially if the player is experienced). You should also note there have been many instances where the largest contributor was actually scum.
Tanzklaue
1,151 posts
Joined December 2010
Tanzklaue
it's just as naive to assume that I am town for my nooby behaviour, or that fart and pieguy are town for their PR claims. at this point, all of this is likely.


I also overlooked something. there is one other possibility for jinxy (or DD) not being lynched yet: scum didn't recruit the traitor and doesn't want to risk lynching him. this is also a possibility to consider, I think.
Rantai
1,000 posts
Joined July 2010
Rantai
The only reason I think you're town is because of your unprovoked opposition to NH's plan.

Same basis as Haneii (lo and behold, she was town). If the traitor is here then we've already lost; all 3 scum roleclaim and the traitor collaborates.
Rantai
1,000 posts
Joined July 2010
Rantai
As for fart and pieguy - I am contemplating the other scenario that they are both scum but as it stands I'm simply more wary of Caligno because of the massive Haneii swing.
fartownik
2,189 posts
Joined December 2008
fartownik
pieguy is not scum as I confirmed him, there's no way he's scum unless I am one and I know I am Town so it's impossible. Right now the only possibility is that all the 3 scum hide in the unconfirmed Townies and we should be digging in there. 4 unconfirmed ones give us a 75% chance of lynching scum today, let's just try to minimalize the risk of mislynching and we should be good tommorrow. As I said before, Tanz would be the safest end so we should go with either JInxy/Dake/Caligno. I'm fine with lynching any of this 3.
DakeDekaane
osu! Alumni
3,500 posts
Joined February 2012
DakeDekaane
Just posting that it's very unlilkely that all three scum are in the non-PR, it's a very perfect scenario for town, this night we've seen that scum likes risky situations, so why shouldn't they be disguised as PR?

I'm keeping my vote on Jinxy, unless you guys want to push any of our "PRs", but I doubt any of you want so, neither me atm as I'm not sure if one of them or both are scum.
fartownik
2,189 posts
Joined December 2008
fartownik

DakeDekaane wrote:

Just posting that it's very unlilkely that all three scum are in the non-PR, it's a very perfect scenario for town, this night we've seen that scum likes risky situations, so why shouldn't they be disguised as PR?

I'm keeping my vote on Jinxy, unless you guys want to push any of our "PRs", but I doubt any of you want so, neither me atm as I'm not sure if one of them or both are scum.
What do you mean by 'very perfect' scenario? It's the only possible scenario (in my view), and I find it pretty much plausible. You saying this only gives me a tick that you protect your scumbuddy that hides in the non-PRs.
Rantai
1,000 posts
Joined July 2010
Rantai
So uh.

No one else has anything to say?
DakeDekaane
osu! Alumni
3,500 posts
Joined February 2012
DakeDekaane
I'm pretty sure Jinxy is scum. Caligno may be scum, Tanz looks town, and I'm town, then either fart/pieguy is, or both. it's all what I have to say.
DakeDekaane
osu! Alumni
3,500 posts
Joined February 2012
DakeDekaane
EBWOP: either fart/pieguy is scum
Amianki
85 posts
Joined January 2011
Amianki
Sorry, I'm here. I haven't done any fartownik-looking yet.

My best guess right now is a Dake-Jinxy(fartownik)-Tanzklaue(pieguy), listed in most to least likely in my eyes (while everything in parentheses is alternate). Jinxy and DakeDekaane are roughly equal, though.

The one thing that makes D2 VCA hard is the fact that the Dake and Haneii wagons each had either none or just one of the others in the VT pile on them. Another reason is that there's no real way to discern intent from the Haneii wagon, since the only vote that could realistically be used for that was the only one who was confirmed town.

Right now, I'm suspecting one of two things:

1. Scum were pretty safe and decided to let town dictate the shots so they could remain in the background: This indicates at most likely two of Tanzklaue-fartownik-pieguy are scum.

2. DakeDekaane wagon is likely scum; this is what makes me suspect that both of the PRs are scum. Both fartownik and pieguy were voting Dake on D2 when the wagon was at its peak, but pieguy ended up voting Haneii in the end anyway. The vote itself is dead null, but his comment in that same post is giving me really weird vibes.

That's about all I can get from vote patterns.
Amianki
85 posts
Joined January 2011
Amianki
I just realized both of them aren't 100% mutually exclusive. They can technically both be true, although I don't think that's too likely.
Sakura
osu! Alumni
7,979 posts
Joined March 2010
Topic Starter
Sakura
Moderator's Notes: I just realized that I forgot to add Ankamius CalignoBot to the ISO archive, will get to that when i get home
Last edited by Sakura , edited 1 time in total.
fartownik
2,189 posts
Joined December 2008
fartownik
Sakura
osu! Alumni
7,979 posts
Joined March 2010
Topic Starter
Sakura
So I guess tomorrow im prodding everyone that hasn't posted within 24 hours
pieguyn
2,020 posts
Joined May 2009
pieguyn
Hey, if you think Dake is scum why are you suspecting all the people who voted him? AFAIK it was just me and fartownik, and making such a move with all three scum seems kind of ridiculous IMO. Also, I know I'm town, so option 2 is impossible for me. Since no one claimed Tracker, I'm willing to bet fartownik is town too since he's the only one who could get affected by the ninja. I figured there's the chance of a mafia watcher, but not so much now.

That just leaves Caligno, DakeDekaane, Jinxy, and Tanz. With these odds I'd be willing to lynch either Dake or Jinxy at this point if we just end the day now, but ofc it'd be better to avoid that to maybe get more info. Caligno being the 3rd scum also fits with everything that's happened and plus it's my gut feeling.
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