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Stacking the Deck - (Game Over - Town Win)

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Haneii
1,203 posts
Joined November 2009
Haneii
EBWOP:

Haneii wrote:

If they didn't recruit the traitor there won't might not be a kill and we have an opportunity to catch our first mafia...
Haneii
1,203 posts
Joined November 2009
Haneii

CalignoBot wrote:

Here's the thing; we have to have the watcher secretly choose between the two confirmed town and the jailkeeper. The glaring issue with this is that there is a case where we have literally no information -> if the watch and jail both miss (which is a pretty decent probability, actually; 49.5% by my calculations), then we gain nothing. We don't know anything about what the scum have chosen, nothing. That's a really hefty percentage to base this on.

Naturally, killing the Watcher is very suboptimal. All that really achieves is confirming the jailkeeper as town.


So what is the JK doing during all this?
Tanzklaue
1,151 posts
Joined December 2010
Tanzklaue
wow, I honestly don't know what to say :/

I am really wonky about all three, haneii, jinxy and DD now. they all suddenly jumped out of the woods after getting votes on them. I think at least one of them is scum, and their is the possibility of one of them being traitor.

looking at the votes, haneii votes jinxy, and jinxy votes haneii back. that's not really helpful, "he did it"-shenanigans won't help us. even as useless is the no lynch vote of DD.

all of them have a fair amount of pressure on them, so it's understandable that they defend themselves.

I wanted to vote jinxy since I agree on the suspicions against him, but on the last page haneii did some really weird argumentations. then again, a similiar kind of play got NH lynched.

I am really confused. this is definetly too much for a firsttimer like me, especially at 3 am.

I think we can ignore the scenarios of pieguy and fart being scum. why? because I think a win is flatout impossible from this point on.

caligno could be scum, since he brought confusion, but honestly, I just think that he is by far the best mafiaplayer in the round, so he probably is just a really good townie.

haneii, JK keeps RB alive I think. since bringing one confirmed townie through is better than nothing and RB shouldn't shoot anyone anyways.
Amianki
85 posts
Joined January 2011
Amianki
Derp. The JK in that situation is doing what you suggested.
Tanzklaue
1,151 posts
Joined December 2010
Tanzklaue
we cannot assume that there is a traitor in the game for planning blindly ahead, haneii. we are at a critical phase of the game, and blindly assuming things won't help us.

RB should be jailkept, Rantai should be watched. as long as fartownik isn't scum, the things that happen from that can't be too bad I think.
Amianki
85 posts
Joined January 2011
Amianki
Oh, that derp was towards myself. Not at anyone else.
Haneii
1,203 posts
Joined November 2009
Haneii

Tanzklaue wrote:

RB should be jailkept, Rantai should be watched. as long as fartownik isn't scum, the things that happen from that can't be too bad I think.
Because obviously they'll be compelled to target either RB or Rantai, especially after CalignoBot repeatedly said they would? Hey, I guess it could happen.

CalignoBot wrote:

we have to have the watcher secretly choose between the two confirmed town and the jailkeeper. The glaring issue with this is that there is a case where we have literally no information -> if the watch and jail both miss (which is a pretty decent probability, actually; 49.5% by my calculations), then we gain nothing.
Because obviously watchers and jailkeepers only target people they already know are 100% scum? Of course there's a chance they could miss >.> There's also a chance that mafia won't go after any of the PR or conf. town. Chances chances chance~
Last edited by Sakura , edited 1 time in total.
pieguyn
2,020 posts
Joined May 2009
pieguyn
what is this I don't even
Trying to predict scum's target is just a bunch of WIFOM. IMO we should play the safest possible path and avoid taking any unnecessary risks. there's no need to keep RB alive "just cause he's the vigilante" because I'm pretty sure at this point it's most advantageous for him not to shoot anyone else anyway.

Rantai is confirmed town, so we've got two options:

  1. 1. Keep Rantai alive to give us a better chance on D3
    If we assume both me and fartownik are confirmed, option 1 gives us a 3/5 chance of hitting mafia D3 (Rantai + one confirmed alive D3).
  2. 2. JK and watch two people and hope we find out something or prevent a NK
    This gives a bit more room to cover all possibilities (e.g. fartownik watches one of RB, Rantai, or me, and I JK one out of the remaining 4). There's also the chance I roleblock a mafia and stop the NK from happening. Mafia can't WIFOM us because either way they decide, there's a chance they fail. Hell, I could even JK fartownik with a low probability in order to ensure they don't just kill fartownik.
thoughts?
Haneii
1,203 posts
Joined November 2009
Haneii

pieguy1372 wrote:

so we've got two options:

  1. 1. Keep Rantai alive to give us a better chance on D3
    If we assume both me and fartownik are confirmed, option 1 gives us a 3/5 chance of hitting mafia D3 (Rantai + one confirmed alive D3).
  2. 2. JK and watch two people and hope we find out something or prevent a NK
    This gives a bit more room to cover all possibilities (e.g. fartownik watches one of RB, Rantai, or me, and I JK one out of the remaining 4). There's also the chance I roleblock a mafia and stop the NK from happening. Mafia can't WIFOM us because either way they decide, there's a chance they fail. Hell, I could even JK fartownik with a low probability in order to ensure they don't just kill fartownik.
thoughts?
Plan 2 if we lynch mafia.

Plan 1 if we lynch town.
Rantai
1,000 posts
Joined July 2010
Rantai

pieguy1372 wrote:

what is this I don't even
Trying to predict scum's target is just a bunch of WIFOM. IMO we should play the safest possible path and avoid taking any unnecessary risks. there's no need to keep RB alive "just cause he's the vigilante" because I'm pretty sure at this point it's most advantageous for him not to shoot anyone else anyway.

Rantai is confirmed town, so we've got two options:

  1. 1. Keep Rantai alive to give us a better chance on D3
    If we assume both me and fartownik are confirmed, option 1 gives us a 3/5 chance of hitting mafia D3 (Rantai + one confirmed alive D3).
  2. 2. JK and watch two people and hope we find out something or prevent a NK
    This gives a bit more room to cover all possibilities (e.g. fartownik watches one of RB, Rantai, or me, and I JK one out of the remaining 4). There's also the chance I roleblock a mafia and stop the NK from happening. Mafia can't WIFOM us because either way they decide, there's a chance they fail. Hell, I could even JK fartownik with a low probability in order to ensure they don't just kill fartownik.
thoughts?
Swap me for RB and I'm fine with either or just because I have no utility at all while RB can save us as a last ditch chance.
Amianki
85 posts
Joined January 2011
Amianki
We should keep the utility alive, regardless of whether we think it will ever be needed again or not. If we get into a situation where the vig can shoot (example, we go into night with odd numbers and two town kills will not immediately end the game), then at least being able to consider the option is better than not having it at all.

I'll look closer at day 2 stuff tomorrow; I have reads that need to be updated and my brain has already shut off for the night.
pieguyn
2,020 posts
Joined May 2009
pieguyn
sorry, can't think, I forgot RB was 100% confirmed too. LOL

In that case we might as well keep RB in plan 1 instead, and we'll have another confirmed townie D3 for a worst case 3/5 (60%) chance...seems pretty good to me 0.0
Raging Bull
2,809 posts
Joined June 2010
Raging Bull
If fart/pieguy mafia, I called it because of confusing OP


At this point, I'm kinda convinced Calingo is town. Only leaves with DD/Tanz/Haneii/Jinxy.

Haneii...Somehow just gut feeling. sorry pieguy. Looking perhaps too pro town when posting a lot and especially quoting what a lot of people says and puts her own opinion forward.

Tanz, still looks pretty town for me.

DD, null. As much as the flip flop goes, I don't really see it as a really big deal like some do. Plus the flip flop wasn't that big. His first post about NH leaning town still had a "not denying he's scum still" kinda thing.

Jinxy, null.
Jinxy
2,777 posts
Joined February 2009
Jinxy
Ok, so if I've got this right, the current suggested plans are:

Caligno's
JK RB and Watch Rantai
Motive: Force scum to either sacrifice to kill Conf or kill Unconf PR/VT and leave more Confs alive


Haneii's / pieguy's option 2
On scum lynch, JK most scummy person and Watch the 2 PRs + Confs randomly (?)
Motive: Prevent a kill/Check for traitor recruitment


pieguy's option 1
On mislynch, JK RB and Watch pieguy or Rantai randomly (?)
Motive: To have more conf town (?)

(?) Because I'm not sure of those things


Caligno's plan fails if a Ninja exists or farto is scum, and depending on perspective, semi-fails if scum doesn't go for Conf town. My opinion is that the amount of Conf town then would make it quite easy to flush out the scum so I don't think it's really a fail.

Haneii's will fail to prevent a kill if the wrong person was JK'd or Traitor was recruited, and will also fail to check for recruitment of the wrong person was JK'd in the first place. My opinion is that this plan has a much higher chance of failing and wastes the JK since it's more likely the JK will protect successfully than roleblock successfully. (1/4 chance of successful protection vs 1/4 chance of successful roleblock on scum hiding in VT, but also 0 if traitor was recruited)

pieguy's plan is kinda like Caligno's, but the random factor involved brings in a lot of WIFOM if scum has no ninja so I don't really know if it would be better or worse for us than Caligno's.

Fixed tags
-Sakura
Jinxy
2,777 posts
Joined February 2009
Jinxy
fucking quotes

Sakura, help pls
Jinxy
2,777 posts
Joined February 2009
Jinxy
EBSDKGHOP: Not quotes, underlines
Haneii
1,203 posts
Joined November 2009
Haneii
@Jinxy

Thanks for the summary...

...so which would you go for? Do you have any alternatives?





Also, we'll end with no lynch if the ties remain.
DakeDekaane
osu! Alumni
3,500 posts
Joined February 2012
DakeDekaane
@pieguy: Though I'd prefer not claim who will be targeted, 1 looks better than 2, but you protect either Rantai or RB and fart watches any of both too, this way scum has only a 25% chance of performing a successful NK on confirmed and remaining hidden instead 50% when only fart doesn't have a fixed target to watch, and maybe, they'd aim for a non-PR or fart/pieguy and that increases the chance of catching scum by PoE, unless scum is really lucky or can predict both of you and NK without being seen or Ninja.
DakeDekaane
osu! Alumni
3,500 posts
Joined February 2012
DakeDekaane
Less than 24 hours~

Unvote

I think this my No Lynch idea is pretty useless with this development.

@Haneii: Your reasons to vote Jinxy?
DakeDekaane
osu! Alumni
3,500 posts
Joined February 2012
DakeDekaane
EBWOP: I think my No Lynch idea.
Jinxy
2,777 posts
Joined February 2009
Jinxy
Dake's suggestion on the plan seems to work. Pulls out all the stops and goes pure WIFOM with low %, compared to pieguy's 50% and Caligno's ultimatum. I think that's the most workable plan suggested so far.

And Haneii's plan is still terrible k
Amianki
85 posts
Joined January 2011
Amianki
Somehow I skimmed over this:

Rantai wrote:

CalignoBot wrote:

Okay, from what I can tell, DakeDekaane is getting fire on page 20 for saying that BRBP shouldn't claim his role.
Where exactly? At the very least I don't remember using that as an argument for or against.
NoHitter and Jinxy were the ones doing that; the post itself that said this wasn't on page 20, the ones making this point were. The post I was referring to was this on page 19:

DakeDekaane wrote:

Guessing BRBP's role won't lead to anything good for town, he should stay as that, when he gets/does something important, then he just have to spit it out. Also I'm curious how you read NH as his plan is clearly anti-town, not saying scum as there's nothing confirmed, in exchange of getting confirmed towns and possible scum, we served some tasty PRs for them in a silver plate.
Note that the first two paragraphs of this post were removed for having no relevance to this point.

The bolded portion is town-motivated thinking, and the unbolded portion is an opinion that doesn't look like it was shaped from a mafia mindset. Just a few posts before, he was somewhere in the middle around that; this post isn't much of a change from that. This is the only particular point I saw that was against Dake; I did skim through most of day 2, though.

I'm liking a Haneii lynch more for the post voting Jinxy. The last post she was referring to was very ambiguous, and the timing of this post looks more opportunistic than anything.
Amianki
85 posts
Joined January 2011
Amianki
RE: Night plans

I'm willing to go along with Dake's plan. It looks solid enough for me.

Also I'll keep an eye on this thread and will hammer if required to get a lynch. I'd still much prefer a Haneii lynch, but I will accept a Jinxy one if I have to. The former has tried to push too many anti-town things for me to believe it's not on purpose.
fartownik
2,189 posts
Joined December 2008
fartownik
Hey guys, sorry for my little inactivity. Had some trouble with new hardware.

I'm fine with doing any of the plans, what Dake proposed sounds fine too (he basically summarized all the plans and took the best from it).

Also, Dake is looking more Town to me at the moment. I wouldn't feel good if another lynched one flipped Town today because of me, especially when he has so few votes on hismelf that just don't deserve a lynch.

Unvote

Though I don't know which of JInxy/Haneii I should go for. JInxy's latest posts regarding the today's tactic were looking more Town, but I'm still not sure about him. Haneii's plan was not very detailed and might've turned out very bad in the worst case scenario, though I had a townread on her until now on. Jeez, the dilemma.

I'm going to read through the ISOs and decide, will be back in some time with my vote.
Sakura
osu! Alumni
7,979 posts
Joined March 2010
Topic Starter
Sakura
Vote Count 2.05

Jinxy (2) - Rantai, Haneii
Haneii (2) - CalignoBot, Jinxy
DakeDekaane (1) - pieguy1372

Not Voting (4) - Tanzklaue, Raging Bull, DakeDekaane, fartownik

With 9 Alive it takes 5 to lynch.

Moderator's Notes: Less than 19 hours until end of Day 2, If it continues as is, you are lynching no one

Guess I made a few mistakes, so Imma go through all of D2 and re-do all votes.
Done, guess my file screwed up from sending it back and forth from home and work, so please let me know if there's still any mistakes.
Jinxy
2,777 posts
Joined February 2009
Jinxy
I voted haneii

Fixed, thanks
- Sakura
pieguyn
2,020 posts
Joined May 2009
pieguyn
for my plan 1, we could either watch or JK either RB or Rantai. I say we JK in order to give fartownik a chance to find mafia. ofc mafia could just kill fartownik, but then we've got 3 confirmed town and a 75% chance of lynching mafia. Then, we watch one of the remaining two. note randomness != WIFOM, WIFOM would be if we tried to predict what they were doing. randomness on the other hand is good because it gives us a chance to find a mafia or stop a NK (from a game theory perspective, we make a strategy that is the least exploitable).

So: I JK RB (or fartownik with a low probability, like 25% or so) and fartownik watches either me or Rantai.

If we lynch scum I still say we do my plan 2 (which Jinxy got wrong btw, my plan involved picking random people as stated before). but we'll have a lot more leeway :D

Raging Bull wrote:

Haneii...Somehow just gut feeling. sorry pieguy.
:P
Raging Bull
2,809 posts
Joined June 2010
Raging Bull
Vote:Haneii
pieguyn
2,020 posts
Joined May 2009
pieguyn
unvote vote: Haneii
inb4 town OTL

note the next vote is the hammer, so don't do it till we're sure of everything :P
Sakura
osu! Alumni
7,979 posts
Joined March 2010
Topic Starter
Sakura
Might as well just go ahead and leave a PC here since im going to sleep soon
Vote Count 2.06

(L-1) Haneii (4) - CalignoBot, Jinxy, Raging Bull, pieguy1372
Jinxy (2) - Rantai, Haneii

Not Voting (3) - Tanzklaue, DakeDekaane, fartownik

With 9 Alive it takes 5 to lynch.
Tanzklaue
1,151 posts
Joined December 2010
Tanzklaue
I am ok with a haneii lynch at this point. she really did not that good of a job helping town in the last few hours.

oh well, my well rested self will try to decipher the nightplanproposes, so i get a better picture over everything. again sorry for the inactivity, but I think I'm just useless at this point, not being able to really read anybody :/
Tanzklaue
1,151 posts
Joined December 2010
Tanzklaue
DD's plan seems reasonable. in the best case scenario, we keep both confirmed townies alive and we get one of the scums. and even in slightly less optimal setups, we either keep both confirmed and lose an unconfirmed townie or we lose a confirmed townie and get one scum. the worst case scenario isn't worse than the ones of the other plans, but the possible reward is really juicy.

bonus points for super best case scenario: we lynch scum, scum shoots traitor this night lolol
Haneii
1,203 posts
Joined November 2009
Haneii
*sigh*

Well I think I did a good job at getting people to talk/react, so you guys have more to work with the next day.

Jinxy, you finally spoke your mind, but you did take longer that I would have hoped + required prodding. However, you were the only one to list most of the risks for using JK offensively I was looking for.

I'm not sure why I'm being voted for. I guess I shouldn't have suggested using JK. However, you guys really should be scum hunting, not lynching off someone because you don't agree with them on something...again.

I won't be able to post again before the day ends, sorry.
DakeDekaane
osu! Alumni
3,500 posts
Joined February 2012
DakeDekaane
dat AtE

Also you didn't respond my question :(

No hammering until we confirm what we'll do this night.
Raging Bull
2,809 posts
Joined June 2010
Raging Bull
which is in about 6 hours.


I prefer if you protect Rantai though. I'm not as useful as Rantai and his logic and what not :( All I can do is shoot.
Raging Bull
2,809 posts
Joined June 2010
Raging Bull
I'm not shooting tonight btw. Although I really want to
Sakura
osu! Alumni
7,979 posts
Joined March 2010
Topic Starter
Sakura
Moderator's Notes: A little less than 6 hours remaining, If things continue as is, you're lynching Haneii
fartownik
2,189 posts
Joined December 2008
fartownik
4~ hours remaining and I'm still unsure of what I should do tonight. Would someone specify the exact actions of all the PRs for both scenarios of mislynch and scumlynch?
Rantai
1,000 posts
Joined July 2010
Rantai
So.. basically we're doing what I said a while ago.

Fart: Choose me, RB or pieguy to watch with pieguy randomly choosing between me and RB. No idea what the actual consensus is but that is the way I'd do it.
Rantai
1,000 posts
Joined July 2010
Rantai
Scratch the RB watch, redundancy is not cool.

Eh nevermind, not thinking.
Sakura
osu! Alumni
7,979 posts
Joined March 2010
Topic Starter
Sakura
As the darkness draws near, Haneii knew she had no hope, in her last words she tried to explain yet she was not heard, the group puts her into an escape pod and sends her flying off in an unknown direction... never to be seen ever again

Vote Count 2.06

Haneii (4) - CalignoBot, Jinxy, Raging Bull, pieguy1372
Jinxy (2) - Rantai, Haneii

Not Voting (3) - Tanzklaue, DakeDekaane, fartownik

Haneii - Vanilla Townie - has been lynched D2

It is now Night 2, deadline for all night actions is July 8th 16:56 GMT-5
Sakura
osu! Alumni
7,979 posts
Joined March 2010
Topic Starter
Sakura
Night 2 is ending earlier because deadline will hit at work and i rather end it earlier rather than later.

After waking up you find the lifeless body of Raging Bull in his room, looks like someone locked him and cut the oxygen supply

Raging Bull - Town Vigilante has been asphyxiated N2

Vote Count 3.0

Not Voting (7) - Tanzklaue, DakeDekaane, fartownik, Rantai, CalignoBot, Jinxy, pieguy1372

With 7 Alive it takes 4 to lynch.

It is now Day 3 which ends on July 14th, 12:46 GMT-5

It is now LyLo town must lynch correctly or they will lose

-Will edit first post later-
Raging Bull
2,809 posts
Joined June 2010
Raging Bull
shoot scum


Town wins yay

Good luck
Amianki
85 posts
Joined January 2011
Amianki
Agh. I was sure Haneii would flip scum.

I need to rethink this, fartownik in particular. I want to be sure I have a solid read in him before making any sort of decision today.
Rantai
1,000 posts
Joined July 2010
Rantai
Well it's very clear our JK decided not to protect our vig (WHY?). Even if we said choose randomly it was very clear RB was the more important of us 2 =.=

Vote: Jinxy

Not moving that vote unless something significant happens.
Rantai
1,000 posts
Joined July 2010
Rantai
For the record I think the scum are Jinxy, DD and either Caligno or Pieguy.

Caligno simply because it's very easy to post a lot and mislead town due to sheer volume (especially with reads which is more of a task of convincing opposed to proving). Pieguy because why.

Jinxy/DD already explained.
Rantai
1,000 posts
Joined July 2010
Rantai
Also; pieguy who did you target and why, fat who did you target and what did you get.
Amianki
85 posts
Joined January 2011
Amianki
No. The only way pieguy is scum is if fartownik is scum. The claim that fartownik was jailed N1 confirms this.
fartownik
2,189 posts
Joined December 2008
fartownik
I watched you, Rantai, and saw pieguy targeting you. I have no idea myself why he didn't protect RB though. It was obvious we should keep RB alive as long as possible. Maybe he thought scum would think the exact same and he switched the targets to prevent the nightkill? Sounds a bit risky though...

The fact is that he targeted me, but the action itself is unknown. Wanna hear from pieguy why he did it.
Rantai
1,000 posts
Joined July 2010
Rantai
Oh yeah that's right, forgot about that action.

Then just Caligno then.
pieguyn
2,020 posts
Joined May 2009
pieguyn
saying that you flipped a coin and acted on that is fine
Pretty much this. I didn't want to bother with all the WIFOM, so I tried this instead and it ended up being Rantai. I'm quite sure it won't have much of an effect on anything since it's LyLo anyway, but oh well.

I bet it's probably DakeDekaane still, but now I'm even more suspicious of JInxy, cause he bandwagoned on Haneii, plus IIRC he didn't contribute anything new really on D2. Also, he hasn't posted much which is the same as I remember him always doing as scum. :?
DakeDekaane
osu! Alumni
3,500 posts
Joined February 2012
DakeDekaane
Well, Haneii turned town, then I should go for my other suspect.
Vote: Jinxy

I'll keep my eye on pieguy though, the way he changed his target is a bit~ weird imo.
fart, why you watched Rantai?
Sakura
osu! Alumni
7,979 posts
Joined March 2010
Topic Starter
Sakura
Vote Count 3.01

(L-2) Jinxy (2) - Rantai, DakeDekaane

Not Voting (5) - Tanzklaue, fartownik, CalignoBot, Jinxy, pieguy1372

With 7 Alive it takes 4 to lynch.

Please let me know if you see any mistakes
Amianki
85 posts
Joined January 2011
Amianki
Rantai, are you absolutely sure about this? I'm getting a very bad feeling about this wagon with the DakeDekaane vote.
Jinxy
2,777 posts
Joined February 2009
Jinxy
Ok, let's see here...

Rantai wrote:

His ISO is rife with parroting and/or jumping in behind another accusation. As much as I don't like DD's play so far, Jinxy is even more uncomfortable. That and he was still one of the non voters and first for the plan so I'm more or less satisfied with that for now (explanation can merely be a cover, considering the insight provided).
I did ask for examples, but regardless, any form of "parroting" you say I did is because I agree the plan would work/the accusation is valid. For NH's plan, the insight provided when I ran the numbers was that town stood to gain more when all the information added up, even if the only thing maf gained could be considered to have a bit more weightage.

pieguy1372 wrote:

I bet it's probably DakeDekaane still, but now I'm even more suspicious of JInxy, cause he bandwagoned on Haneii, plus IIRC he didn't contribute anything new really on D2. Also, he hasn't posted much which is the same as I remember him always doing as scum. :?
I don't know how you came to the wagoning conclusion, considering I voted eons after Irre/Caligno. Ironically enough, the reason I voted Haneii was precisely because she was wagoning on me right after Rantai.
In D2, people made plans, I checked it, decided it was sound, and agreed with. I'm not the kind of guy who can come up with plans if I don't have a basis(improvement of another plan, etc) to work on. I don't see how this is instantly a scum trait, not everyone can come up with plans.

Now, in my perspective, the only possibilities remaining are that every other unconf is scum, or fart is + 2 unconf, or fart and pieguy both are + 1 unconf. I highly doubt the last one, but I'm not going to disregard the second one. Considering the votes are coming pretty fast now, I'm going back to my original suspect before Haneii's scummy posts.

Vote: DD
fartownik
2,189 posts
Joined December 2008
fartownik

DakeDekaane wrote:

fart, why you watched Rantai?
Erm, because I thought he's going to get lynched?

My suspects at the moment are JInxy and Dake to some extent, though I can't deny the possibility of Caligno being scum as well. His actions seemed pretty pro-town, but by PoE he's the only one (not counting JInxy and Dake) that could be either scum or a Traitor. Tanz is still a townread, but I can't be sure of anything anymore.

JInxy's Haneii push and general weird behavior throughout the entire game (not compatible with his regular town meta) made me suspicious. He's an underdog already, along with DD, whom I was suspecting back in D2 and I also suspect him right now because of PoE.
Rantai
1,000 posts
Joined July 2010
Rantai

CalignoBot wrote:

Rantai, are you absolutely sure about this? I'm getting a very bad feeling about this wagon with the DakeDekaane vote.

More sure than that Haneii wagon.

Also considering that everyone except Tanz has posted and no ninja hammer has occurred I'm going to say it's a fairly safe bet (I am going to say Tanz stands more town than scum, but that isn't much to go by unfortunately).

SPOILER
@Jinxy - p/2387466/ - pointless reiteration, the point was made
p/2396642/ - jumping onto NH's pressure

The only thing giving me pause is the fact that he completely tunnel visioned Haneii the entire game. That's one aggressive scum.

At this stage though we have nothing to work on as both our PR's whiffed and cross confirmed each other again. They could be scum together for all I know.
Rantai
1,000 posts
Joined July 2010
Rantai
@Caligno - well actually, if you feel stronger about DD then I can go with that too.

I'll only vote for him to hammer though because I'd want to make sure that the others can make their own conclusions first.
Jinxy
2,777 posts
Joined February 2009
Jinxy

Rantai wrote:

@Jinxy - p/2387466/ - pointless reiteration, the point was made
p/2396642/ - jumping onto NH's pressure
For the first one, I didn't think NH answered that question at all so I added in.

NoHitter wrote:

Haneii wrote:

That isn't the only lie [scum] can make. They can say they don't have a power role when they do.
That's why we only lynch suspicious PRs. After we lynch them, we lynch the non-PRs based on how scummy they are.
For the second one, I was replying to Dake's post above and pointing out where exactly the flip-flop was for other people.
pieguyn
2,020 posts
Joined May 2009
pieguyn
Okay I seriously have no idea what to do here

if anyone's a Tracker, claim now plz

I seriously think it's either JInxy or DakeDekaane, if not both of them. in fact, it has to be cause otherwise scum would have hammered by now and won.

now I wonder about Caligno. someone made a point D1 of how Irre was acting even more ridiculous than in previous games, and currently it seems to me like Caligno is hesitating way too much. and it seems he's kind of misleading a bit, not only with Haneii, but I got confused just reading some of his huge posts.
Rantai
1,000 posts
Joined July 2010
Rantai
Jinxy, yes he could have been hammered by now.

DD, while likely, no because Jinxy is scum (can't ninja hammer if scum initiates).
Rantai
1,000 posts
Joined July 2010
Rantai
Likely to be scum*
DakeDekaane
osu! Alumni
3,500 posts
Joined February 2012
DakeDekaane
I doubt there's a tracker here, if there is, he should be at least tracked any of the PRs and found an inconsistency, and we'd have ended this day quickly, but it seems this is not the case. And it'd be pretty stupid for scum voting each other in LyLo.

Now let's see~

Rantai is the only confirmed town left.
pieguy/fartownik are claimed PRs who God knows if any of them scum of not.
Tanz/Jinxy/Caligno/DD(me) are the non-PRs left.

Tanz looks pretty townie.
Caligno is tainted with Irre's behaviour.
Jinxy is still null and pushed Haneii too much imo and I'm pretty sure he's scum by PoE.

There are 3 scum left, they can't be in all of non-PR. There should be at least 1 in the claimed PR, even both, but we can't take the risk of lynching any of them, as if we miss, we're dead.
pieguy was keeping his will on protecting RB and it seems he protected Rantai in the end.
fart went for Rantai as it seemed pieguy was seriously to protect RB.
Rantai
1,000 posts
Joined July 2010
Rantai

DakeDekaane wrote:

And it'd be pretty stupid for scum voting each other in LyLo.
How so? Distance voting is always popular.
Amianki
85 posts
Joined January 2011
Amianki

pieguy1372 wrote:

now I wonder about Caligno. someone made a point D1 of how Irre was acting even more ridiculous than in previous games, and currently it seems to me like Caligno is hesitating way too much. and it seems he's kind of misleading a bit, not only with Haneii, but I got confused just reading some of his huge posts.
This situation is a lot different than Day 2. There's an inherent risk of scum piling on in a lynch for an instant win, so I want to make sure that we come to a clear consensus before making any possibly game-ending decisions.
Sakura
osu! Alumni
7,979 posts
Joined March 2010
Topic Starter
Sakura
Vote Count 3.02

(L-2) Jinxy (2) - Rantai, DakeDekaane
DakeDekaane (1) - Jinxy

Not Voting (4) - Tanzklaue, fartownik, CalignoBot, pieguy1372

With 7 Alive it takes 4 to lynch.

Please let me know if you see any mistakes
Tanzklaue
1,151 posts
Joined December 2010
Tanzklaue

Rantai wrote:

Also considering that everyone except Tanz has posted and no ninja hammer has occurred I'm going to say it's a fairly safe bet (I am going to say Tanz stands more town than scum, but that isn't much to go by unfortunately).
I was asleep, sorry.

the situation is pretty dire. we again have the situation of our PRs having convenient claims, thus completly useless for us. we had the chance to confirm pieguy, and he should've known that jailkeeping RB is the only sound thing to do.

then we have the problem of scum shooting RB. overall, the chance of mafia targetting him and not getting watched or blocked was 25%. add to that the unlikeliness of pieguy not jking RB, and I think we can see that this turn of events, the worst possible case for town, was really unlikely. without saying much more, I'm highely suspicious.

then caligno. yes he could be scum in disguise. but I don't think that he is. why? I think it's safe to assume that he is the best player in this round. I don't think that he would act the way he did if he was scum. he seems to be taken aback that his assumptions turned out wrong. I don't think any experienced player would make himself this vulnerable.

then we have jinxy and DD. I think that if jinxy was town, he would be dead by now and we would've lost. because ninja hammer. DD on the other hand didn't get ninja hammered. this shows even more that jinxy should be the scum, as mafia doesn't have the 3 votes they need to ninja lynch him. of course there is also the case of crossvoting, if both of them are scum. in which case the question arises: who is the third scum? fart or caligno?

I am highly suspicious of fart and pieguy at this point, and jinxy seems to be scum aswell. I don't think caligno is scum, and DD is at least a little bit less likely to be scum than jinxy is.
Rantai
1,000 posts
Joined July 2010
Rantai
Bear in mind quantity =/= quality.

In some cases it will be an analysis that takes everything into account (that's good), sometimes a fluff post (ie thread summary with a little bit of insight here and there) or simply a distraction post made to look town but has absolutely nothing in it/has misleading information.

I haven't quite made my mind up about Caligno just yet but it's very naive to believe he is town simply because he "was taken aback" (especially if the player is experienced). You should also note there have been many instances where the largest contributor was actually scum.
Tanzklaue
1,151 posts
Joined December 2010
Tanzklaue
it's just as naive to assume that I am town for my nooby behaviour, or that fart and pieguy are town for their PR claims. at this point, all of this is likely.


I also overlooked something. there is one other possibility for jinxy (or DD) not being lynched yet: scum didn't recruit the traitor and doesn't want to risk lynching him. this is also a possibility to consider, I think.
Rantai
1,000 posts
Joined July 2010
Rantai
The only reason I think you're town is because of your unprovoked opposition to NH's plan.

Same basis as Haneii (lo and behold, she was town). If the traitor is here then we've already lost; all 3 scum roleclaim and the traitor collaborates.
Rantai
1,000 posts
Joined July 2010
Rantai
As for fart and pieguy - I am contemplating the other scenario that they are both scum but as it stands I'm simply more wary of Caligno because of the massive Haneii swing.
fartownik
2,189 posts
Joined December 2008
fartownik
pieguy is not scum as I confirmed him, there's no way he's scum unless I am one and I know I am Town so it's impossible. Right now the only possibility is that all the 3 scum hide in the unconfirmed Townies and we should be digging in there. 4 unconfirmed ones give us a 75% chance of lynching scum today, let's just try to minimalize the risk of mislynching and we should be good tommorrow. As I said before, Tanz would be the safest end so we should go with either JInxy/Dake/Caligno. I'm fine with lynching any of this 3.
DakeDekaane
osu! Alumni
3,500 posts
Joined February 2012
DakeDekaane
Just posting that it's very unlilkely that all three scum are in the non-PR, it's a very perfect scenario for town, this night we've seen that scum likes risky situations, so why shouldn't they be disguised as PR?

I'm keeping my vote on Jinxy, unless you guys want to push any of our "PRs", but I doubt any of you want so, neither me atm as I'm not sure if one of them or both are scum.
fartownik
2,189 posts
Joined December 2008
fartownik

DakeDekaane wrote:

Just posting that it's very unlilkely that all three scum are in the non-PR, it's a very perfect scenario for town, this night we've seen that scum likes risky situations, so why shouldn't they be disguised as PR?

I'm keeping my vote on Jinxy, unless you guys want to push any of our "PRs", but I doubt any of you want so, neither me atm as I'm not sure if one of them or both are scum.
What do you mean by 'very perfect' scenario? It's the only possible scenario (in my view), and I find it pretty much plausible. You saying this only gives me a tick that you protect your scumbuddy that hides in the non-PRs.
Rantai
1,000 posts
Joined July 2010
Rantai
So uh.

No one else has anything to say?
DakeDekaane
osu! Alumni
3,500 posts
Joined February 2012
DakeDekaane
I'm pretty sure Jinxy is scum. Caligno may be scum, Tanz looks town, and I'm town, then either fart/pieguy is, or both. it's all what I have to say.
DakeDekaane
osu! Alumni
3,500 posts
Joined February 2012
DakeDekaane
EBWOP: either fart/pieguy is scum
Amianki
85 posts
Joined January 2011
Amianki
Sorry, I'm here. I haven't done any fartownik-looking yet.

My best guess right now is a Dake-Jinxy(fartownik)-Tanzklaue(pieguy), listed in most to least likely in my eyes (while everything in parentheses is alternate). Jinxy and DakeDekaane are roughly equal, though.

The one thing that makes D2 VCA hard is the fact that the Dake and Haneii wagons each had either none or just one of the others in the VT pile on them. Another reason is that there's no real way to discern intent from the Haneii wagon, since the only vote that could realistically be used for that was the only one who was confirmed town.

Right now, I'm suspecting one of two things:

1. Scum were pretty safe and decided to let town dictate the shots so they could remain in the background: This indicates at most likely two of Tanzklaue-fartownik-pieguy are scum.

2. DakeDekaane wagon is likely scum; this is what makes me suspect that both of the PRs are scum. Both fartownik and pieguy were voting Dake on D2 when the wagon was at its peak, but pieguy ended up voting Haneii in the end anyway. The vote itself is dead null, but his comment in that same post is giving me really weird vibes.

That's about all I can get from vote patterns.
Amianki
85 posts
Joined January 2011
Amianki
I just realized both of them aren't 100% mutually exclusive. They can technically both be true, although I don't think that's too likely.
Sakura
osu! Alumni
7,979 posts
Joined March 2010
Topic Starter
Sakura
Moderator's Notes: I just realized that I forgot to add Ankamius CalignoBot to the ISO archive, will get to that when i get home
Last edited by Sakura , edited 1 time in total.
fartownik
2,189 posts
Joined December 2008
fartownik
Sakura
osu! Alumni
7,979 posts
Joined March 2010
Topic Starter
Sakura
So I guess tomorrow im prodding everyone that hasn't posted within 24 hours
pieguyn
2,020 posts
Joined May 2009
pieguyn
Hey, if you think Dake is scum why are you suspecting all the people who voted him? AFAIK it was just me and fartownik, and making such a move with all three scum seems kind of ridiculous IMO. Also, I know I'm town, so option 2 is impossible for me. Since no one claimed Tracker, I'm willing to bet fartownik is town too since he's the only one who could get affected by the ninja. I figured there's the chance of a mafia watcher, but not so much now.

That just leaves Caligno, DakeDekaane, Jinxy, and Tanz. With these odds I'd be willing to lynch either Dake or Jinxy at this point if we just end the day now, but ofc it'd be better to avoid that to maybe get more info. Caligno being the 3rd scum also fits with everything that's happened and plus it's my gut feeling.
Amianki
85 posts
Joined January 2011
Amianki

pieguy1372 wrote:

Hey, if you think Dake is scum why are you suspecting all the people who voted him? AFAIK it was just me and fartownik, and making such a move with all three scum seems kind of ridiculous IMO.
Bussing a scumbuddy when you're feeling safe about your chances despite their death is a valid maneuver that I can definitely see as a possibility here.

That said, I'm not even going to worry about it until we absolutely have to make a decision as to whether fartownik is scum or not (D4).

Saying Watcher is town because he's the only one that can be affected by the ninja is a bit... weak. It stops being relevant if the Ninja doesn't exist. Even if it does, then there's no guarantee whatsoever that it would have an effect on the game since the role decision was random.
pieguyn
2,020 posts
Joined May 2009
pieguyn
as for the Watcher, as NoHItter said, Occham's Razor always works in these kinds of games, for me anyway. XD
The thing with that was from mafia perspective there's only 2 mafias, so if he does get lynched that's a bad situation since they don't know who the traitor is. If they did recruit the traitor, then I don't think they'd have 2 people vote him just like that, since that would seem really unnatural..
Amianki
85 posts
Joined January 2011
Amianki
Hnh, I need to rethink my reads again.

Reading through the D3 posts several times is making me more and more confused every time I do it. I probably need sleep to get them to settle.
Rantai
1,000 posts
Joined July 2010
Rantai
Oh god such fail. I was going under the assumption that there was 3 scum and a traitor this whole time.

*facepalm*
Tanzklaue
1,151 posts
Joined December 2010
Tanzklaue

Rantai wrote:

Oh god such fail. I was going under the assumption that there was 3 scum and a traitor this whole time.

*facepalm*
erm...

you know... we would've been dead this day if this was the case? xD

ok, rthe problem is: we have 4 townies and 3 scum left. at this point, scum does much better to stop activity (which is one of the many reasons for declining activity), so yea.

I am highly suspicious of fart and decently suspicious of pieguy, though pieguy is a lot less likely to be scum than fart. for today, jinxy seems to be the most reasonable lynch. in the night rantai should be protected, and farto should do whatever he deems right. scum doesn't have thatz many options to shoot profitable anymore. basically, I think if pieguy protects rantai and isn't scum, he is the most likely to die next night, followed by the strongest townread (me) and the strongest towncontributor (caligno).

if I think more about it, I think I am the last safe shoot besides rantai for them without messing up their wifom? do i see this right? lesser players mustn't be a disadvantage, as scum played this game basically on the back of wifom. but now there is almost no candidate for wifom left. if we just had one confirmed townie more... this would be so much easier. anyway, I think we should lynch jinxy tonight. if pieguy protects rantai, then farto should probably watch pieguy or me, because I think the NK will hit one of us two.
Tanzklaue
1,151 posts
Joined December 2010
Tanzklaue
oh my god the grammar in my post gives me cancer.

if you need a clearer version, then don't be afraid to ask. I just shouldn't write anything unless I'm awake for at least 2 hours ._.
Rantai
1,000 posts
Joined July 2010
Rantai
Jinxy, question;

Who do you think the 3 scum are?
Rantai
1,000 posts
Joined July 2010
Rantai
And yeah that was a huge and terrible misconception on my part.

Oops?
Sakura
osu! Alumni
7,979 posts
Joined March 2010
Topic Starter
Sakura
Vote Count 3.03

(L-2) Jinxy (2) - Rantai, DakeDekaane
DakeDekaane (1) - Jinxy

Not Voting (4) - Tanzklaue, fartownik, CalignoBot, pieguy1372

With 7 Alive it takes 4 to lynch.

Please let me know if you see any mistakes

Jinxy has been prodded
Jinxy
2,777 posts
Joined February 2009
Jinxy
DD, fart, Tanz or Caligno

Both tanz and caligno looked pretty town to me so I don't really think it's that easy that all the scum are the other VTs, so I think fart may be scum.

That's really all I have for now, exams are in full swing but maybe I'll get to read and post more on the weekends since next week's subjects are all ok for me.

Except social studies but I give none of the fucks for that
fartownik
2,189 posts
Joined December 2008
fartownik
I just love how you guys keep saying 'fart may be scum' but end up giving no real arguments for your suspicion.

I don't really have anything to add, I will just vote because it seems like nothing productive is being done anymore.

Vote: JInxy
pieguyn
2,020 posts
Joined May 2009
pieguyn
since there was no ninja hammer I'm just going to assume JInxy is mafia

if not, since there was no ninja hammer, both mafia would already be voting JInxy -> Dake and fartownik are both mafia. Dake could be, but as I said before think fartownik is.

inb4 mafia mason
DakeDekaane
osu! Alumni
3,500 posts
Joined February 2012
DakeDekaane
I'm only wandering why you guys suspect Jinxy, but don't vote him yet, do you have any better lynch, or what makes you unsure of?

Do you have anything else to add, like actions for N3, which I doubt that would happen. I'm really sure of my suspects, but I can't vote any other that isn't Jinxy, as it's the safest lynch atm.
Amianki
85 posts
Joined January 2011
Amianki
Vote DakeDekaane
Rantai
1,000 posts
Joined July 2010
Rantai
Unvote
Rantai
1,000 posts
Joined July 2010
Rantai
Not quite ready for a hammer just yet. That and DD screams mafia on a megaphone right now.
fartownik
2,189 posts
Joined December 2008
fartownik
What was that, Dake? Why you wanna end the day asap so badly?
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