Jinxy, yes he could have been hammered by now.
DD, while likely, no because Jinxy is scum (can't ninja hammer if scum initiates).
DD, while likely, no because Jinxy is scum (can't ninja hammer if scum initiates).
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Stacking the Deck - (Game Over - Town Win)
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Likely to be scum*
I doubt there's a tracker here, if there is, he should be at least tracked any of the PRs and found an inconsistency, and we'd have ended this day quickly, but it seems this is not the case. And it'd be pretty stupid for scum voting each other in LyLo.
Now let's see~
Rantai is the only confirmed town left.
pieguy/fartownik are claimed PRs who God knows if any of them scum of not.
Tanz/Jinxy/Caligno/DD(me) are the non-PRs left.
Tanz looks pretty townie.
Caligno is tainted with Irre's behaviour.
Jinxy is still null and pushed Haneii too much imo and I'm pretty sure he's scum by PoE.
There are 3 scum left, they can't be in all of non-PR. There should be at least 1 in the claimed PR, even both, but we can't take the risk of lynching any of them, as if we miss, we're dead.
pieguy was keeping his will on protecting RB and it seems he protected Rantai in the end.
fart went for Rantai as it seemed pieguy was seriously to protect RB.
Now let's see~
Rantai is the only confirmed town left.
pieguy/fartownik are claimed PRs who God knows if any of them scum of not.
Tanz/Jinxy/Caligno/DD(me) are the non-PRs left.
Tanz looks pretty townie.
Caligno is tainted with Irre's behaviour.
Jinxy is still null and pushed Haneii too much imo and I'm pretty sure he's scum by PoE.
There are 3 scum left, they can't be in all of non-PR. There should be at least 1 in the claimed PR, even both, but we can't take the risk of lynching any of them, as if we miss, we're dead.
pieguy was keeping his will on protecting RB and it seems he protected Rantai in the end.
fart went for Rantai as it seemed pieguy was seriously to protect RB.
How so? Distance voting is always popular.DakeDekaane wrote:
And it'd be pretty stupid for scum voting each other in LyLo.
This situation is a lot different than Day 2. There's an inherent risk of scum piling on in a lynch for an instant win, so I want to make sure that we come to a clear consensus before making any possibly game-ending decisions.pieguy1372 wrote:
now I wonder about Caligno. someone made a point D1 of how Irre was acting even more ridiculous than in previous games, and currently it seems to me like Caligno is hesitating way too much. and it seems he's kind of misleading a bit, not only with Haneii, but I got confused just reading some of his huge posts.
Topic Starter
Vote Count 3.02
(L-2) Jinxy (2) - Rantai, DakeDekaane
DakeDekaane (1) - Jinxy
Not Voting (4) - Tanzklaue, fartownik, CalignoBot, pieguy1372
With 7 Alive it takes 4 to lynch.
(L-2) Jinxy (2) - Rantai, DakeDekaane
DakeDekaane (1) - Jinxy
Not Voting (4) - Tanzklaue, fartownik, CalignoBot, pieguy1372
With 7 Alive it takes 4 to lynch.
Please let me know if you see any mistakes
I was asleep, sorry.Rantai wrote:
Also considering that everyone except Tanz has posted and no ninja hammer has occurred I'm going to say it's a fairly safe bet (I am going to say Tanz stands more town than scum, but that isn't much to go by unfortunately).
the situation is pretty dire. we again have the situation of our PRs having convenient claims, thus completly useless for us. we had the chance to confirm pieguy, and he should've known that jailkeeping RB is the only sound thing to do.
then we have the problem of scum shooting RB. overall, the chance of mafia targetting him and not getting watched or blocked was 25%. add to that the unlikeliness of pieguy not jking RB, and I think we can see that this turn of events, the worst possible case for town, was really unlikely. without saying much more, I'm highely suspicious.
then caligno. yes he could be scum in disguise. but I don't think that he is. why? I think it's safe to assume that he is the best player in this round. I don't think that he would act the way he did if he was scum. he seems to be taken aback that his assumptions turned out wrong. I don't think any experienced player would make himself this vulnerable.
then we have jinxy and DD. I think that if jinxy was town, he would be dead by now and we would've lost. because ninja hammer. DD on the other hand didn't get ninja hammered. this shows even more that jinxy should be the scum, as mafia doesn't have the 3 votes they need to ninja lynch him. of course there is also the case of crossvoting, if both of them are scum. in which case the question arises: who is the third scum? fart or caligno?
I am highly suspicious of fart and pieguy at this point, and jinxy seems to be scum aswell. I don't think caligno is scum, and DD is at least a little bit less likely to be scum than jinxy is.
Bear in mind quantity =/= quality.
In some cases it will be an analysis that takes everything into account (that's good), sometimes a fluff post (ie thread summary with a little bit of insight here and there) or simply a distraction post made to look town but has absolutely nothing in it/has misleading information.
I haven't quite made my mind up about Caligno just yet but it's very naive to believe he is town simply because he "was taken aback" (especially if the player is experienced). You should also note there have been many instances where the largest contributor was actually scum.
In some cases it will be an analysis that takes everything into account (that's good), sometimes a fluff post (ie thread summary with a little bit of insight here and there) or simply a distraction post made to look town but has absolutely nothing in it/has misleading information.
I haven't quite made my mind up about Caligno just yet but it's very naive to believe he is town simply because he "was taken aback" (especially if the player is experienced). You should also note there have been many instances where the largest contributor was actually scum.
it's just as naive to assume that I am town for my nooby behaviour, or that fart and pieguy are town for their PR claims. at this point, all of this is likely.
I also overlooked something. there is one other possibility for jinxy (or DD) not being lynched yet: scum didn't recruit the traitor and doesn't want to risk lynching him. this is also a possibility to consider, I think.
I also overlooked something. there is one other possibility for jinxy (or DD) not being lynched yet: scum didn't recruit the traitor and doesn't want to risk lynching him. this is also a possibility to consider, I think.
The only reason I think you're town is because of your unprovoked opposition to NH's plan.
Same basis as Haneii (lo and behold, she was town). If the traitor is here then we've already lost; all 3 scum roleclaim and the traitor collaborates.
Same basis as Haneii (lo and behold, she was town). If the traitor is here then we've already lost; all 3 scum roleclaim and the traitor collaborates.
As for fart and pieguy - I am contemplating the other scenario that they are both scum but as it stands I'm simply more wary of Caligno because of the massive Haneii swing.
pieguy is not scum as I confirmed him, there's no way he's scum unless I am one and I know I am Town so it's impossible. Right now the only possibility is that all the 3 scum hide in the unconfirmed Townies and we should be digging in there. 4 unconfirmed ones give us a 75% chance of lynching scum today, let's just try to minimalize the risk of mislynching and we should be good tommorrow. As I said before, Tanz would be the safest end so we should go with either JInxy/Dake/Caligno. I'm fine with lynching any of this 3.
Just posting that it's very unlilkely that all three scum are in the non-PR, it's a very perfect scenario for town, this night we've seen that scum likes risky situations, so why shouldn't they be disguised as PR?
I'm keeping my vote on Jinxy, unless you guys want to push any of our "PRs", but I doubt any of you want so, neither me atm as I'm not sure if one of them or both are scum.
I'm keeping my vote on Jinxy, unless you guys want to push any of our "PRs", but I doubt any of you want so, neither me atm as I'm not sure if one of them or both are scum.
What do you mean by 'very perfect' scenario? It's the only possible scenario (in my view), and I find it pretty much plausible. You saying this only gives me a tick that you protect your scumbuddy that hides in the non-PRs.DakeDekaane wrote:
Just posting that it's very unlilkely that all three scum are in the non-PR, it's a very perfect scenario for town, this night we've seen that scum likes risky situations, so why shouldn't they be disguised as PR?
I'm keeping my vote on Jinxy, unless you guys want to push any of our "PRs", but I doubt any of you want so, neither me atm as I'm not sure if one of them or both are scum.
So uh.
No one else has anything to say?
No one else has anything to say?
I'm pretty sure Jinxy is scum. Caligno may be scum, Tanz looks town, and I'm town, then either fart/pieguy is, or both. it's all what I have to say.
EBWOP: either fart/pieguy is scum
Sorry, I'm here. I haven't done any fartownik-looking yet.
My best guess right now is a Dake-Jinxy(fartownik)-Tanzklaue(pieguy), listed in most to least likely in my eyes (while everything in parentheses is alternate). Jinxy and DakeDekaane are roughly equal, though.
The one thing that makes D2 VCA hard is the fact that the Dake and Haneii wagons each had either none or just one of the others in the VT pile on them. Another reason is that there's no real way to discern intent from the Haneii wagon, since the only vote that could realistically be used for that was the only one who was confirmed town.
Right now, I'm suspecting one of two things:
1. Scum were pretty safe and decided to let town dictate the shots so they could remain in the background: This indicates at most likely two of Tanzklaue-fartownik-pieguy are scum.
2. DakeDekaane wagon is likely scum; this is what makes me suspect that both of the PRs are scum. Both fartownik and pieguy were voting Dake on D2 when the wagon was at its peak, but pieguy ended up voting Haneii in the end anyway. The vote itself is dead null, but his comment in that same post is giving me really weird vibes.
That's about all I can get from vote patterns.
My best guess right now is a Dake-Jinxy(fartownik)-Tanzklaue(pieguy), listed in most to least likely in my eyes (while everything in parentheses is alternate). Jinxy and DakeDekaane are roughly equal, though.
The one thing that makes D2 VCA hard is the fact that the Dake and Haneii wagons each had either none or just one of the others in the VT pile on them. Another reason is that there's no real way to discern intent from the Haneii wagon, since the only vote that could realistically be used for that was the only one who was confirmed town.
Right now, I'm suspecting one of two things:
1. Scum were pretty safe and decided to let town dictate the shots so they could remain in the background: This indicates at most likely two of Tanzklaue-fartownik-pieguy are scum.
2. DakeDekaane wagon is likely scum; this is what makes me suspect that both of the PRs are scum. Both fartownik and pieguy were voting Dake on D2 when the wagon was at its peak, but pieguy ended up voting Haneii in the end anyway. The vote itself is dead null, but his comment in that same post is giving me really weird vibes.
That's about all I can get from vote patterns.
I just realized both of them aren't 100% mutually exclusive. They can technically both be true, although I don't think that's too likely.
Topic Starter
Moderator's Notes: I just realized that I forgot to add Ankamius CalignoBot to the ISO archive, will get to that when i get home
Topic Starter
So I guess tomorrow im prodding everyone that hasn't posted within 24 hours
Hey, if you think Dake is scum why are you suspecting all the people who voted him? AFAIK it was just me and fartownik, and making such a move with all three scum seems kind of ridiculous IMO. Also, I know I'm town, so option 2 is impossible for me. Since no one claimed Tracker, I'm willing to bet fartownik is town too since he's the only one who could get affected by the ninja. I figured there's the chance of a mafia watcher, but not so much now.
That just leaves Caligno, DakeDekaane, Jinxy, and Tanz. With these odds I'd be willing to lynch either Dake or Jinxy at this point if we just end the day now, but ofc it'd be better to avoid that to maybe get more info. Caligno being the 3rd scum also fits with everything that's happened and plus it's my gut feeling.
That just leaves Caligno, DakeDekaane, Jinxy, and Tanz. With these odds I'd be willing to lynch either Dake or Jinxy at this point if we just end the day now, but ofc it'd be better to avoid that to maybe get more info. Caligno being the 3rd scum also fits with everything that's happened and plus it's my gut feeling.
Bussing a scumbuddy when you're feeling safe about your chances despite their death is a valid maneuver that I can definitely see as a possibility here.pieguy1372 wrote:
Hey, if you think Dake is scum why are you suspecting all the people who voted him? AFAIK it was just me and fartownik, and making such a move with all three scum seems kind of ridiculous IMO.
That said, I'm not even going to worry about it until we absolutely have to make a decision as to whether fartownik is scum or not (D4).
Saying Watcher is town because he's the only one that can be affected by the ninja is a bit... weak. It stops being relevant if the Ninja doesn't exist. Even if it does, then there's no guarantee whatsoever that it would have an effect on the game since the role decision was random.
as for the Watcher, as NoHItter said, Occham's Razor always works in these kinds of games, for me anyway. XD
The thing with that was from mafia perspective there's only 2 mafias, so if he does get lynched that's a bad situation since they don't know who the traitor is. If they did recruit the traitor, then I don't think they'd have 2 people vote him just like that, since that would seem really unnatural..
The thing with that was from mafia perspective there's only 2 mafias, so if he does get lynched that's a bad situation since they don't know who the traitor is. If they did recruit the traitor, then I don't think they'd have 2 people vote him just like that, since that would seem really unnatural..
Hnh, I need to rethink my reads again.
Reading through the D3 posts several times is making me more and more confused every time I do it. I probably need sleep to get them to settle.
Reading through the D3 posts several times is making me more and more confused every time I do it. I probably need sleep to get them to settle.
Oh god such fail. I was going under the assumption that there was 3 scum and a traitor this whole time.
*facepalm*
*facepalm*
erm...Rantai wrote:
Oh god such fail. I was going under the assumption that there was 3 scum and a traitor this whole time.
*facepalm*
you know... we would've been dead this day if this was the case? xD
ok, rthe problem is: we have 4 townies and 3 scum left. at this point, scum does much better to stop activity (which is one of the many reasons for declining activity), so yea.
I am highly suspicious of fart and decently suspicious of pieguy, though pieguy is a lot less likely to be scum than fart. for today, jinxy seems to be the most reasonable lynch. in the night rantai should be protected, and farto should do whatever he deems right. scum doesn't have thatz many options to shoot profitable anymore. basically, I think if pieguy protects rantai and isn't scum, he is the most likely to die next night, followed by the strongest townread (me) and the strongest towncontributor (caligno).
if I think more about it, I think I am the last safe shoot besides rantai for them without messing up their wifom? do i see this right? lesser players mustn't be a disadvantage, as scum played this game basically on the back of wifom. but now there is almost no candidate for wifom left. if we just had one confirmed townie more... this would be so much easier. anyway, I think we should lynch jinxy tonight. if pieguy protects rantai, then farto should probably watch pieguy or me, because I think the NK will hit one of us two.
oh my god the grammar in my post gives me cancer.
if you need a clearer version, then don't be afraid to ask. I just shouldn't write anything unless I'm awake for at least 2 hours ._.
if you need a clearer version, then don't be afraid to ask. I just shouldn't write anything unless I'm awake for at least 2 hours ._.
Jinxy, question;
Who do you think the 3 scum are?
Who do you think the 3 scum are?
And yeah that was a huge and terrible misconception on my part.
Oops?
Oops?
Topic Starter
Vote Count 3.03
(L-2) Jinxy (2) - Rantai, DakeDekaane
DakeDekaane (1) - Jinxy
Not Voting (4) - Tanzklaue, fartownik, CalignoBot, pieguy1372
With 7 Alive it takes 4 to lynch.
(L-2) Jinxy (2) - Rantai, DakeDekaane
DakeDekaane (1) - Jinxy
Not Voting (4) - Tanzklaue, fartownik, CalignoBot, pieguy1372
With 7 Alive it takes 4 to lynch.
Please let me know if you see any mistakes
Jinxy has been prodded
DD, fart, Tanz or Caligno
Both tanz and caligno looked pretty town to me so I don't really think it's that easy that all the scum are the other VTs, so I think fart may be scum.
That's really all I have for now, exams are in full swing but maybe I'll get to read and post more on the weekends since next week's subjects are all ok for me.
Except social studies but I give none of the fucks for that
Both tanz and caligno looked pretty town to me so I don't really think it's that easy that all the scum are the other VTs, so I think fart may be scum.
That's really all I have for now, exams are in full swing but maybe I'll get to read and post more on the weekends since next week's subjects are all ok for me.
Except social studies but I give none of the fucks for that
I just love how you guys keep saying 'fart may be scum' but end up giving no real arguments for your suspicion.
I don't really have anything to add, I will just vote because it seems like nothing productive is being done anymore.
Vote: JInxy
I don't really have anything to add, I will just vote because it seems like nothing productive is being done anymore.
Vote: JInxy
since there was no ninja hammer I'm just going to assume JInxy is mafia
if not, since there was no ninja hammer, both mafia would already be voting JInxy -> Dake and fartownik are both mafia. Dake could be, but as I said before think fartownik is.
inb4 mafia mason
if not, since there was no ninja hammer, both mafia would already be voting JInxy -> Dake and fartownik are both mafia. Dake could be, but as I said before think fartownik is.
inb4 mafia mason
I'm only wandering why you guys suspect Jinxy, but don't vote him yet, do you have any better lynch, or what makes you unsure of?
Do you have anything else to add, like actions for N3, which I doubt that would happen. I'm really sure of my suspects, but I can't vote any other that isn't Jinxy, as it's the safest lynch atm.
Do you have anything else to add, like actions for N3, which I doubt that would happen. I'm really sure of my suspects, but I can't vote any other that isn't Jinxy, as it's the safest lynch atm.
Unvote
Not quite ready for a hammer just yet. That and DD screams mafia on a megaphone right now.
What was that, Dake? Why you wanna end the day asap so badly?