Let's try that again.

Vote: Haneii

Hopefully it takes this time.

This post is my suggested plan of attack for night choices. I promise I will stop posting for a bit after this and let other people start having posts on this page.

We have prime opportunities to get information right now. Assuming that both PRs are town, which I believe is the case, then we are in great shape. This is the best option for N2:

fartownik watches one confirmed town (mason), while pieguy1372 jails the vigilante. Most likely, the watched target is going to die.

There's several possibilities for mason death:

If we lynch scum today and fartownik gets a tangible result, the result is lynched. Either we lynch scum, or we lynch town and fartownik gets vigged that night (either dying or being confirmed bulletproof or JOAT). Either way, we get a scum.

If we lynch scum today and fartownik gets no result: Still a 2v5 endgame, which is pretty nice. We don't have a whole lot of information from this alone, but my suggested plan for N3 still works.

If we lynch town today and fartownik gets a tangible result, then it's a gamble. We can either lynch one of fartownik and his target (50-50 change) or one of the people that aren't fartownik and his target (also a 50-50 chance). Either way, it gets kind of rough here.

If we lynch town today and fartownik gets no result: I'll be honest; this is a really bad situation. A town win from here would be really impressive.

This is listed from best to worst.

I won't go into what happens if someone besides the watched target dies. There's so many possibilities that it's completely useless trying to analyze it before it happens. Plus, we still have two confimred town at this point. Even if we end up lynching town, we are still more likely to lynch scum than town the following days. Watcher on jailkeeper and jailkeeper targetting a townie without revealing who works well here.

---

Either way, assuming that we reach N3 and the mason dies N2, the only real thing both PRs should do is to target the vigilante.

If we follow this plan, then we will have at least one confirmed town in D4. The only way we won't is if, again, both unproven PRs are scum, in which case we just win the game (since there would only be two scum left).

I fully recommend we keep the vigilante alive as long as possible instead of the mason. Keeping our options open is always a plus.

Good piece of content, Caligno. Good replacement for Irreversible.

CalignoBot wrote:

fartownik watches one confirmed town (mason), while pieguy1372 jails the vigilante. Most likely, the watched target is going to die.

Do you really think Mafia would just go over Rantai if they knew I'm currently watching him? That'd be a direct expose of scum, you know. If they know I'm going to Watch Rantai they will probably just change the target to avoid getting caught (unless I'm missing something?). If this is done then me or pieguy would most likely be nightkilled as we are the remaining PRs without any protection.

I might not have explained well enough why that is the most likely result. I think I explained my whole thought process behind that, albeit in a somewhat messy way, but I can explain that part of it in another post if it's still confusing.

Will be unavailable for approximately 14hours

CalignoBot wrote:

I might not have explained well enough why that is the most likely result. I think I explained my whole thought process behind that, albeit in a somewhat messy way, but I can explain that part of it in another post if it's still confusing.

Well, it'd be nice if you elaborated on this. Why would scum risk getting caught (or more like, conciously going into a trap) by killing a target aimed by Watcher?

fartownik wrote:

CalignoBot wrote:

I might not have explained well enough why that is the most likely result. I think I explained my whole thought process behind that, albeit in a somewhat messy way, but I can explain that part of it in another post if it's still confusing.

Well, it'd be nice if you elaborated on this. Why would scum risk getting caught (or more like, conciously going into a trap) by killing a target aimed by Watcher?

Rantai wrote:

The scum will almost definitely hit RB or I because we're confirmed. If they don't then they're shooting themselves in the foot (which is fine by me).

I assume it's because if they shoot you or pieguy (or a VT if they're retarded) instead, then we'll still have 2 alive confirmed-towns which significantly pushes the odds into our favour.

But, are those 'odds into Town favor' worth more than still having all Mafia hidden? (I mean for scum of course)

There's several possible reasons why scum would go for the mason anyway.

1. If they have a ninja; they can kill off a confirmed town while giving no concrete information in return.
2. If fartownik is scum, he can just make up whatever result he wants. This is the other possibility that makes this not concrete.
3. If neither of the above are true, then the other options aren't that great either:

a. fartownik is the target of the nightkill; worst possible target, as now pieguy is confirmed town. Even if we used up our mislynch today, there's 3 confirmed town and 4 unconfirmed town, 3 of which are scum. That's giving town an unnecessary advantage.

b. pieguy dying reduces options. Keeping both unconfirmed PRs alive helps scum because the possibility of both being scum is a really powerful advantage for them to keep around. If town suddenly knows for a fact that there are a minimum of two mafia in the VT pile, then there's no inherent risk of lynching from the VT pile twice since there's not a chance that there's only one scum in that pile (which having both PRs alive would prevent). It would have the same type of situation as both PRs being alive where there would be a choice to go for the PR or VT, but it happens where there's more information present.

c1. Shooting one of the VTs; both PRs are town: This is extremely risky, especially if both of the PRs are town. The next night, the Jailkeeper can choose a target of his choice (without making note of it beforehand in thread) and the Watcher targets one of the other PRs in the same way (also without making note of it beforehand). Suddenly, in this situation, the scum have to rely on dumb luck for a kill to go through without the person committing it getting caught. There's a 50% chance the kill will just be straight-up blocked (4 VTs going into night, 3 VTs going into day, 2 VTs going into night), and even then there's a 33% chance of the Watcher catching that scum anyways unless there's a ninja. Whether one or both are scum is moot; it's a very risky situation to get into.

c2. Shooting one of the VTs; both PRs are scum: Honestly, this really isn't much different than if they shot the mason. The only real change is that one of the confirmed town dies a day later. Mafia literally cannot allow BOTH the vigilante and mason to get to day 4 (assuming 2 deaths a day cicle, this is when there's 5 people left). That is literally just making the game difficult for yourself needlessly.

However, I don't think it's overly likely that both PRs are scum. Just having the game play out the way it did with a farto-pieguy-? scumteam is a huge enough risk that I don't think it would've been even attempted by very many people. Scum (non-PR group) really don't have any good options if they don't have a ninja.

Please let me know if you see any mistakes

CalignoBot wrote:

Okay, from what I can tell, DakeDekaane is getting fire on page 20 for saying that BRBP shouldn't claim his role.

Where exactly? At the very least I don't remember using that as an argument for or against.

Unvote Vote: Jinxy

His ISO is rife with parroting and/or jumping in behind another accusation. As much as I don't like DD's play so far, Jinxy is even more uncomfortable. That and he was still one of the non voters and first for the plan so I'm more or less satisfied with that for now (explanation can merely be a cover, considering the insight provided).

Hi CalignoBot o/

CalignoBot wrote:

Jinxy is starting to ping to me as well.

Why?
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

I don't see Mafia targeting mason if they know they'll be watched (Yeah, you listed other scenarios and their odds - which, by the way, get better if we accidentally lynch town today - but mafia would prob jump at taking those risks than willingly falling into this town "trap" ie: letting themselves get caught by the watcher). And if they do go ahead with the kill, they'll probably have a ninja so watching for them is pointless.

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

CalignoBot wrote:

I fully recommend we keep the vigilante alive as long as possible instead of the mason.

Until when? Might work if he was still hidden, but mafia will prob just kill him when we need to use him (Mafia's shots occur first, right?).

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


We need a better night plan for the PRs if we lynch town...




[In preparation for if we hit sucm today] We should probably decide on who we all think is the next most suspicious (right after the person we lynch today) and that person should be targeted by Jailkeeper.

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

My thoughts haven't changed much from my last post so:

Vote: Jinxy

First of all, sorry for the long inactivity, I got all my pending stuff irl done, so I'm quite free now, welcome CalignoBot, nice summary o/

Though I think it's pretty late I'll respond what fartownik asked:

fartownik wrote:

@Dake: concentrate more on the potential targets for the lynch today instead of writing up the possible scenarios of tommorrow. We must focus on minimalizing the possibility of lynching scum today and what you're doing is not helpful at the moment. What are your main scumspects? Also, what do you think about Irre and JInxy?

You guys asked to elaborate so I did. My main suspects atm are Haneii and Jinxy.

Irre was quite inactive and gave me scumread due his unexplained vote on NH, but now that he got a replacement, I'll be reading him until I get a clear read, for now, CalignoBot looks townie for bringing a really nice summary and some points to considerate, I shall agree on keeping Watcher on Rantai.
Jinxy is a bit null for me, leaning town for explaining what town could obtain from NH's plan, but then he stayed a bit quiet.

Now:

Haneii wrote:

[In preparation for if we hit sucm today] We should probably decide on who we all think is the next most suspicious (right after the person we lynch today) and that person should be targeted by Jailkeeper.

What if scum recruited the traitor? The two remaining would be like: "Hey, I'm going to be jailed" "Ok, I'll make the kill". It's not a nice course of action.

And why did you say things get better by accidentally lynching town? Accidentally lynching a town means a lynching a VT, yes, it increases the odds for town, but if scum hit a confirmed town, we'll be 1 confirmed, 2 PR and 4 non-PR, assuming we'd not take the risk of making RB shoot, which would be pretty the same as today, tho we would look for the behaviour of everyone. The thing that frightened me a bit is how you are wording that. (I know I stated the same scenario before, but it's too different when it's caused by mislynching than a vig shot).

DakeDekaane wrote:

What if scum recruited the traitor?

DakeDekaane wrote:

And why did you say things get better by accidentally lynching town?

What if they didn't?
Mafia's odds. Specifically the the odds mentioned in CalignoBot's scenarios where someone besides Mason is targeted. If we lynch town the odds in some of those scenarios get better for mafia, so I don't think they're a good argument for "Mafia will most likely target the mason tonight". I don't necessarily agree with these odds, DakeDekaane, I'm just posting my thoughts about them.

EBWOP:



"What if they didn't?" is my response to your first question at me. Sorry >.>

Please let me know if you see any mistakes

@Haneii: If the mason ends up surviving the night, then that's completely fine with me. The logic of not bothering with watching one of the confirmed town doesn't work. It gives scum an ultimatum where they have to either give up one of their own for it or let both confirmed town live if they don't have a ninja. At the bare minimum, we narrow down possibilities. I can't think of a reliable way to get information from the night actions if we don't do this.

Telling the Jailkeeper who to target offensively is not a good idea either; all scum has to do is select someone else to make the kill. If we're doing it at all, the jailing will be secret.

I'll explain Jinxy scumread when I skim through a second time. I have a really bad habit of noting things for myself without any context whatsoever.

CalignoBot wrote:

Telling the Jailkeeper who to target offensively is not a good idea either; all scum has to do is select someone else to make the kill. If we're doing it at all, the jailing will be secret.

But there's only one mafia to do the kill.

Haneii wrote:

[In preparation for if we hit sucm today] We should probably decide on who we all think is the next most suspicious (right after the person we lynch today) and that person should be targeted by Jailkeeper.

Oh, and right there when I said scum I was referring to Mafia. Won't work if we lynch traitor today.


Like I posted earlier, I'm assuming the traitor was NOT recruited.

CalignoBot wrote:

I'll explain Jinxy scumread when I skim through a second time.

Just give me your thoughts from the top of your head. My behaviour and actions were "meh" to you. What did you get from Jinxy?

We can't assume that the traitor wasn't recruited for planning night actions, though. We have no knowledge of that, so it always has to be taken into account.

Jinxy scumread is on the page 13 post. The statement that he is suspicious of people without finding them scummy doesn't sound genuine to me.

Rantai wrote:

His ISO is rife with parroting and/or jumping in behind another accusation. As much as I don't like DD's play so far, Jinxy is even more uncomfortable. That and he was still one of the non voters and first for the plan so I'm more or less satisfied with that for now (explanation can merely be a cover, considering the insight provided).

Wait, which parts are? The things I can remember agreeing with are the massclaim and the reads on Dake.
Also, I didn't vote D1 because I felt NH was town and at that point he was already at like L-1 or 2, so if someone else had to talk, he could first before ending the day.

Haneii wrote:

DakeDekaane wrote:

What if scum recruited the traitor?

What if they didn't?/quote]
This is a negative proof fallacy, if mafia did recruit the traitor, then your plan falls completely flat and we've wasted the JK for the night. We have no way of telling right now so this sounds like an attempt to waste the JK.
The fact that Haneii also voted on me right after Rantai while claiming the reason was in her previous post, is really raising my suspicions because she could have voted any time instead of waiting for another person.

Vote: Haneii

CalignoBot wrote:

We can't assume that the traitor wasn't recruited for planning night actions, though. We have no knowledge of that, so it always has to be taken into account.

Why do we have to keep it in account? At the very least it'll help us confirm that the traitor was recruited (In that case I'm going to guess their other power is Day chat, so we won't have to worry about a ninja anymore).


Yes, nearly everything I'm saying is based on assumptions, but so our yours, CalignoBot.

To add on: If you're wrong and the traitor was recruited, you also just gave him a free kill for the conf town since checking/protecting them needs both JK and Watcher

Jinxy wrote:

This is a negative proof fallacy, if mafia did recruit the traitor, then your plan falls completely flat and we've wasted the JK for the night. We have no way of telling right now so this sounds like an attempt to waste the JK.

Haneii wrote:

At the very least it'll help us confirm that the traitor was recruited

And how is it a waste? What is the JK going to be doing tonight?

Jinxy wrote:

The fact that Haneii also voted on me right after Rantai while claiming the reason was in her previous post, is really raising my suspicions because she could have voted any time instead of waiting for another person.

Day 2 ends in little over a day. I work all day and only have the evenings to posts...so yeah. Why I waited to vote? I wanted to hear more for others (including you) before making my vote.

Jinxy wrote:

To add on: If you're wrong and the traitor was recruited, you also just gave him a free kill for the conf town since checking/protecting them needs both JK and Watcher

Free kill? How do you know who to protect?

I'd make the JK protect somebody with no telling who, wasting a night just to know if there's a Traitor or not is useless, and allows scum to throw WIFOM.

Even if they didn't recruit Traitor, they could mislead us to lynch a townie in case we jail the wrong person.

The confirmed town, Rantai and RB, in Caligno's post. The plan was to force scum to either sacrifice 1 guy to kill a conf, or don't kill a conf and push the odds into town favour.

DakeDekaane wrote:

I'd make the JK protect somebody with no telling who

Why and then what?

DakeDekaane wrote:

Even if they didn't recruit Traitor, they could mislead us to lynch a townie in case we jail the wrong person.

If they didn't recruit the traitor there won't be a kill and we have an opportunity to catch our first mafia...

Jinxy wrote:

The confirmed town, Rantai and RB, in Caligno's post. The plan was to force scum to either sacrifice 1 guy to kill a conf, or don't kill a conf and push the odds into town favour.

Sorry, I don't agree that not killing a confirmed town pushes the odds in town favour that much in this point of time - they can just kill of the least suspicious after conf. town. They can afford to kill someone else tonight and we'd still be in as much as in dark as we are now.

Here's the thing; we have to have the watcher secretly choose between the two confirmed town and the jailkeeper. The glaring issue with this is that there is a case where we have literally no information -> if the watch and jail both miss (which is a pretty decent probability, actually; 49.5% by my calculations), then we gain nothing. We don't know anything about what the scum have chosen, nothing. That's a really hefty percentage to base this on.

Naturally, killing the Watcher is very suboptimal. All that really achieves is confirming the jailkeeper as town.

EBWOP:

Haneii wrote:

If they didn't recruit the traitor there won't might not be a kill and we have an opportunity to catch our first mafia...

CalignoBot wrote:

Here's the thing; we have to have the watcher secretly choose between the two confirmed town and the jailkeeper. The glaring issue with this is that there is a case where we have literally no information -> if the watch and jail both miss (which is a pretty decent probability, actually; 49.5% by my calculations), then we gain nothing. We don't know anything about what the scum have chosen, nothing. That's a really hefty percentage to base this on.

Naturally, killing the Watcher is very suboptimal. All that really achieves is confirming the jailkeeper as town.

So what is the JK doing during all this?

wow, I honestly don't know what to say :/

I am really wonky about all three, haneii, jinxy and DD now. they all suddenly jumped out of the woods after getting votes on them. I think at least one of them is scum, and their is the possibility of one of them being traitor.

looking at the votes, haneii votes jinxy, and jinxy votes haneii back. that's not really helpful, "he did it"-shenanigans won't help us. even as useless is the no lynch vote of DD.

all of them have a fair amount of pressure on them, so it's understandable that they defend themselves.

I wanted to vote jinxy since I agree on the suspicions against him, but on the last page haneii did some really weird argumentations. then again, a similiar kind of play got NH lynched.

I am really confused. this is definetly too much for a firsttimer like me, especially at 3 am.

I think we can ignore the scenarios of pieguy and fart being scum. why? because I think a win is flatout impossible from this point on.

caligno could be scum, since he brought confusion, but honestly, I just think that he is by far the best mafiaplayer in the round, so he probably is just a really good townie.

haneii, JK keeps RB alive I think. since bringing one confirmed townie through is better than nothing and RB shouldn't shoot anyone anyways.

Derp. The JK in that situation is doing what you suggested.

we cannot assume that there is a traitor in the game for planning blindly ahead, haneii. we are at a critical phase of the game, and blindly assuming things won't help us.

RB should be jailkept, Rantai should be watched. as long as fartownik isn't scum, the things that happen from that can't be too bad I think.

Oh, that derp was towards myself. Not at anyone else.

Tanzklaue wrote:

RB should be jailkept, Rantai should be watched. as long as fartownik isn't scum, the things that happen from that can't be too bad I think.

Because obviously they'll be compelled to target either RB or Rantai, especially after CalignoBot repeatedly said they would? Hey, I guess it could happen.

CalignoBot wrote:

we have to have the watcher secretly choose between the two confirmed town and the jailkeeper. The glaring issue with this is that there is a case where we have literally no information -> if the watch and jail both miss (which is a pretty decent probability, actually; 49.5% by my calculations), then we gain nothing.

Because obviously watchers and jailkeepers only target people they already know are 100% scum? Of course there's a chance they could miss >.> There's also a chance that mafia won't go after any of the PR or conf. town. Chances chances chance~

what is this I don't even
Trying to predict scum's target is just a bunch of WIFOM. IMO we should play the safest possible path and avoid taking any unnecessary risks. there's no need to keep RB alive "just cause he's the vigilante" because I'm pretty sure at this point it's most advantageous for him not to shoot anyone else anyway.

Rantai is confirmed town, so we've got two options:

1. 1. Keep Rantai alive to give us a better chance on D3
   If we assume both me and fartownik are confirmed, option 1 gives us a 3/5 chance of hitting mafia D3 (Rantai + one confirmed alive D3).
   
2. 2. JK and watch two people and hope we find out something or prevent a NK
   This gives a bit more room to cover all possibilities (e.g. fartownik watches one of RB, Rantai, or me, and I JK one out of the remaining 4). There's also the chance I roleblock a mafia and stop the NK from happening. Mafia can't WIFOM us because either way they decide, there's a chance they fail. Hell, I could even JK fartownik with a low probability in order to ensure they don't just kill fartownik.

thoughts?

pieguy1372 wrote:

so we've got two options:

1. 1. Keep Rantai alive to give us a better chance on D3
   If we assume both me and fartownik are confirmed, option 1 gives us a 3/5 chance of hitting mafia D3 (Rantai + one confirmed alive D3).
   
2. 2. JK and watch two people and hope we find out something or prevent a NK
   This gives a bit more room to cover all possibilities (e.g. fartownik watches one of RB, Rantai, or me, and I JK one out of the remaining 4). There's also the chance I roleblock a mafia and stop the NK from happening. Mafia can't WIFOM us because either way they decide, there's a chance they fail. Hell, I could even JK fartownik with a low probability in order to ensure they don't just kill fartownik.

thoughts?

Plan 2 if we lynch mafia.

Plan 1 if we lynch town.

pieguy1372 wrote:

what is this I don't even
Trying to predict scum's target is just a bunch of WIFOM. IMO we should play the safest possible path and avoid taking any unnecessary risks. there's no need to keep RB alive "just cause he's the vigilante" because I'm pretty sure at this point it's most advantageous for him not to shoot anyone else anyway.

Rantai is confirmed town, so we've got two options:

1. 1. Keep Rantai alive to give us a better chance on D3
   If we assume both me and fartownik are confirmed, option 1 gives us a 3/5 chance of hitting mafia D3 (Rantai + one confirmed alive D3).
   
2. 2. JK and watch two people and hope we find out something or prevent a NK
   This gives a bit more room to cover all possibilities (e.g. fartownik watches one of RB, Rantai, or me, and I JK one out of the remaining 4). There's also the chance I roleblock a mafia and stop the NK from happening. Mafia can't WIFOM us because either way they decide, there's a chance they fail. Hell, I could even JK fartownik with a low probability in order to ensure they don't just kill fartownik.

thoughts?

Swap me for RB and I'm fine with either or just because I have no utility at all while RB can save us as a last ditch chance.

We should keep the utility alive, regardless of whether we think it will ever be needed again or not. If we get into a situation where the vig can shoot (example, we go into night with odd numbers and two town kills will not immediately end the game), then at least being able to consider the option is better than not having it at all.

I'll look closer at day 2 stuff tomorrow; I have reads that need to be updated and my brain has already shut off for the night.

sorry, can't think, I forgot RB was 100% confirmed too. LOL

In that case we might as well keep RB in plan 1 instead, and we'll have another confirmed townie D3 for a worst case 3/5 (60%) chance...seems pretty good to me 0.0

If fart/pieguy mafia, I called it because of confusing OP


At this point, I'm kinda convinced Calingo is town. Only leaves with DD/Tanz/Haneii/Jinxy.

Haneii...Somehow just gut feeling. sorry pieguy. Looking perhaps too pro town when posting a lot and especially quoting what a lot of people says and puts her own opinion forward.

Tanz, still looks pretty town for me.

DD, null. As much as the flip flop goes, I don't really see it as a really big deal like some do. Plus the flip flop wasn't that big. His first post about NH leaning town still had a "not denying he's scum still" kinda thing.

Jinxy, null.

Ok, so if I've got this right, the current suggested plans are:

Caligno's
JK RB and Watch Rantai
Motive: Force scum to either sacrifice to kill Conf or kill Unconf PR/VT and leave more Confs alive


Haneii's / pieguy's option 2
On scum lynch, JK most scummy person and Watch the 2 PRs + Confs randomly (?)
Motive: Prevent a kill/Check for traitor recruitment


pieguy's option 1
On mislynch, JK RB and Watch pieguy or Rantai randomly (?)
Motive: To have more conf town (?)

(?) Because I'm not sure of those things


Caligno's plan fails if a Ninja exists or farto is scum, and depending on perspective, semi-fails if scum doesn't go for Conf town. My opinion is that the amount of Conf town then would make it quite easy to flush out the scum so I don't think it's really a fail.

Haneii's will fail to prevent a kill if the wrong person was JK'd or Traitor was recruited, and will also fail to check for recruitment of the wrong person was JK'd in the first place. My opinion is that this plan has a much higher chance of failing and wastes the JK since it's more likely the JK will protect successfully than roleblock successfully. (1/4 chance of successful protection vs 1/4 chance of successful roleblock on scum hiding in VT, but also 0 if traitor was recruited)

pieguy's plan is kinda like Caligno's, but the random factor involved brings in a lot of WIFOM if scum has no ninja so I don't really know if it would be better or worse for us than Caligno's.

Fixed tags
-Sakura

fucking quotes

Sakura, help pls

EBSDKGHOP: Not quotes, underlines

@Jinxy

Thanks for the summary...

...so which would you go for? Do you have any alternatives?





Also, we'll end with no lynch if the ties remain.

@pieguy: Though I'd prefer not claim who will be targeted, 1 looks better than 2, but you protect either Rantai or RB and fart watches any of both too, this way scum has only a 25% chance of performing a successful NK on confirmed and remaining hidden instead 50% when only fart doesn't have a fixed target to watch, and maybe, they'd aim for a non-PR or fart/pieguy and that increases the chance of catching scum by PoE, unless scum is really lucky or can predict both of you and NK without being seen or Ninja.

Less than 24 hours~

Unvote

I think this my No Lynch idea is pretty useless with this development.

@Haneii: Your reasons to vote Jinxy?

EBWOP: I think my No Lynch idea.

Dake's suggestion on the plan seems to work. Pulls out all the stops and goes pure WIFOM with low %, compared to pieguy's 50% and Caligno's ultimatum. I think that's the most workable plan suggested so far.

And Haneii's plan is still terrible k

Somehow I skimmed over this:

Rantai wrote:

CalignoBot wrote:

Okay, from what I can tell, DakeDekaane is getting fire on page 20 for saying that BRBP shouldn't claim his role.

Where exactly? At the very least I don't remember using that as an argument for or against.

NoHitter and Jinxy were the ones doing that; the post itself that said this wasn't on page 20, the ones making this point were. The post I was referring to was this on page 19:

DakeDekaane wrote:

Guessing BRBP's role won't lead to anything good for town, he should stay as that, when he gets/does something important, then he just have to spit it out. Also I'm curious how you read NH as his plan is clearly anti-town, not saying scum as there's nothing confirmed, in exchange of getting confirmed towns and possible scum, we served some tasty PRs for them in a silver plate.

Note that the first two paragraphs of this post were removed for having no relevance to this point.

The bolded portion is town-motivated thinking, and the unbolded portion is an opinion that doesn't look like it was shaped from a mafia mindset. Just a few posts before, he was somewhere in the middle around that; this post isn't much of a change from that. This is the only particular point I saw that was against Dake; I did skim through most of day 2, though.

I'm liking a Haneii lynch more for the post voting Jinxy. The last post she was referring to was very ambiguous, and the timing of this post looks more opportunistic than anything.

RE: Night plans

I'm willing to go along with Dake's plan. It looks solid enough for me.

Also I'll keep an eye on this thread and will hammer if required to get a lynch. I'd still much prefer a Haneii lynch, but I will accept a Jinxy one if I have to. The former has tried to push too many anti-town things for me to believe it's not on purpose.

Hey guys, sorry for my little inactivity. Had some trouble with new hardware.

I'm fine with doing any of the plans, what Dake proposed sounds fine too (he basically summarized all the plans and took the best from it).

Also, Dake is looking more Town to me at the moment. I wouldn't feel good if another lynched one flipped Town today because of me, especially when he has so few votes on hismelf that just don't deserve a lynch.

Unvote

Though I don't know which of JInxy/Haneii I should go for. JInxy's latest posts regarding the today's tactic were looking more Town, but I'm still not sure about him. Haneii's plan was not very detailed and might've turned out very bad in the worst case scenario, though I had a townread on her until now on. Jeez, the dilemma.

I'm going to read through the ISOs and decide, will be back in some time with my vote.

Moderator's Notes: Less than 19 hours until end of Day 2, If it continues as is, you are lynching no one

Guess I made a few mistakes, so Imma go through all of D2 and re-do all votes.
Done, guess my file screwed up from sending it back and forth from home and work, so please let me know if there's still any mistakes.

I voted haneii

Fixed, thanks
- Sakura

for my plan 1, we could either watch or JK either RB or Rantai. I say we JK in order to give fartownik a chance to find mafia. ofc mafia could just kill fartownik, but then we've got 3 confirmed town and a 75% chance of lynching mafia. Then, we watch one of the remaining two. note randomness != WIFOM, WIFOM would be if we tried to predict what they were doing. randomness on the other hand is good because it gives us a chance to find a mafia or stop a NK (from a game theory perspective, we make a strategy that is the least exploitable).

So: I JK RB (or fartownik with a low probability, like 25% or so) and fartownik watches either me or Rantai.

If we lynch scum I still say we do my plan 2 (which Jinxy got wrong btw, my plan involved picking random people as stated before). but we'll have a lot more leeway

Raging Bull wrote:

Haneii...Somehow just gut feeling. sorry pieguy.

unvote vote: Haneii
inb4 town OTL

note the next vote is the hammer, so don't do it till we're sure of everything

Might as well just go ahead and leave a PC here since im going to sleep soon

I am ok with a haneii lynch at this point. she really did not that good of a job helping town in the last few hours.

oh well, my well rested self will try to decipher the nightplanproposes, so i get a better picture over everything. again sorry for the inactivity, but I think I'm just useless at this point, not being able to really read anybody :/

DD's plan seems reasonable. in the best case scenario, we keep both confirmed townies alive and we get one of the scums. and even in slightly less optimal setups, we either keep both confirmed and lose an unconfirmed townie or we lose a confirmed townie and get one scum. the worst case scenario isn't worse than the ones of the other plans, but the possible reward is really juicy.

bonus points for super best case scenario: we lynch scum, scum shoots traitor this night lolol

*sigh*

Well I think I did a good job at getting people to talk/react, so you guys have more to work with the next day.

Jinxy, you finally spoke your mind, but you did take longer that I would have hoped + required prodding. However, you were the only one to list most of the risks for using JK offensively I was looking for.

I'm not sure why I'm being voted for. I guess I shouldn't have suggested using JK. However, you guys really should be scum hunting, not lynching off someone because you don't agree with them on something...again.

I won't be able to post again before the day ends, sorry.

dat AtE

Also you didn't respond my question

No hammering until we confirm what we'll do this night.

which is in about 6 hours.


I prefer if you protect Rantai though. I'm not as useful as Rantai and his logic and what not All I can do is shoot.

I'm not shooting tonight btw. Although I really want to

4~ hours remaining and I'm still unsure of what I should do tonight. Would someone specify the exact actions of all the PRs for both scenarios of mislynch and scumlynch?

So.. basically we're doing what I said a while ago.

Fart: Choose me, RB or pieguy to watch with pieguy randomly choosing between me and RB. No idea what the actual consensus is but that is the way I'd do it.

Scratch the RB watch, redundancy is not cool.

Eh nevermind, not thinking.

Night 2 is ending earlier because deadline will hit at work and i rather end it earlier rather than later.

After waking up you find the lifeless body of Raging Bull in his room, looks like someone locked him and cut the oxygen supply

Raging Bull - Town Vigilante has been asphyxiated N2


It is now Day 3 which ends on July 14th, 12:46 GMT-5

It is now LyLo town must lynch correctly or they will lose

-Will edit first post later-

shoot scum


Town wins yay

Good luck

Agh. I was sure Haneii would flip scum.

I need to rethink this, fartownik in particular. I want to be sure I have a solid read in him before making any sort of decision today.

Well it's very clear our JK decided not to protect our vig (WHY?). Even if we said choose randomly it was very clear RB was the more important of us 2 =.=

Vote: Jinxy

Not moving that vote unless something significant happens.

For the record I think the scum are Jinxy, DD and either Caligno or Pieguy.

Caligno simply because it's very easy to post a lot and mislead town due to sheer volume (especially with reads which is more of a task of convincing opposed to proving). Pieguy because why.

Jinxy/DD already explained.

Also; pieguy who did you target and why, fat who did you target and what did you get.

No. The only way pieguy is scum is if fartownik is scum. The claim that fartownik was jailed N1 confirms this.

I watched you, Rantai, and saw pieguy targeting you. I have no idea myself why he didn't protect RB though. It was obvious we should keep RB alive as long as possible. Maybe he thought scum would think the exact same and he switched the targets to prevent the nightkill? Sounds a bit risky though...

The fact is that he targeted me, but the action itself is unknown. Wanna hear from pieguy why he did it.

Oh yeah that's right, forgot about that action.

Then just Caligno then.

saying that you flipped a coin and acted on that is fine

Pretty much this. I didn't want to bother with all the WIFOM, so I tried this instead and it ended up being Rantai. I'm quite sure it won't have much of an effect on anything since it's LyLo anyway, but oh well.

I bet it's probably DakeDekaane still, but now I'm even more suspicious of JInxy, cause he bandwagoned on Haneii, plus IIRC he didn't contribute anything new really on D2. Also, he hasn't posted much which is the same as I remember him always doing as scum.

Well, Haneii turned town, then I should go for my other suspect.
Vote: Jinxy

I'll keep my eye on pieguy though, the way he changed his target is a bit~ weird imo.
fart, why you watched Rantai?

Please let me know if you see any mistakes

Rantai, are you absolutely sure about this? I'm getting a very bad feeling about this wagon with the DakeDekaane vote.

Ok, let's see here...

Rantai wrote:

His ISO is rife with parroting and/or jumping in behind another accusation. As much as I don't like DD's play so far, Jinxy is even more uncomfortable. That and he was still one of the non voters and first for the plan so I'm more or less satisfied with that for now (explanation can merely be a cover, considering the insight provided).

I did ask for examples, but regardless, any form of "parroting" you say I did is because I agree the plan would work/the accusation is valid. For NH's plan, the insight provided when I ran the numbers was that town stood to gain more when all the information added up, even if the only thing maf gained could be considered to have a bit more weightage.

pieguy1372 wrote:

I bet it's probably DakeDekaane still, but now I'm even more suspicious of JInxy, cause he bandwagoned on Haneii, plus IIRC he didn't contribute anything new really on D2. Also, he hasn't posted much which is the same as I remember him always doing as scum.

I don't know how you came to the wagoning conclusion, considering I voted eons after Irre/Caligno. Ironically enough, the reason I voted Haneii was precisely because she was wagoning on me right after Rantai.
In D2, people made plans, I checked it, decided it was sound, and agreed with. I'm not the kind of guy who can come up with plans if I don't have a basis(improvement of another plan, etc) to work on. I don't see how this is instantly a scum trait, not everyone can come up with plans.

Now, in my perspective, the only possibilities remaining are that every other unconf is scum, or fart is + 2 unconf, or fart and pieguy both are + 1 unconf. I highly doubt the last one, but I'm not going to disregard the second one. Considering the votes are coming pretty fast now, I'm going back to my original suspect before Haneii's scummy posts.

Vote: DD

DakeDekaane wrote:

fart, why you watched Rantai?

Erm, because I thought he's going to get lynched?

My suspects at the moment are JInxy and Dake to some extent, though I can't deny the possibility of Caligno being scum as well. His actions seemed pretty pro-town, but by PoE he's the only one (not counting JInxy and Dake) that could be either scum or a Traitor. Tanz is still a townread, but I can't be sure of anything anymore.

JInxy's Haneii push and general weird behavior throughout the entire game (not compatible with his regular town meta) made me suspicious. He's an underdog already, along with DD, whom I was suspecting back in D2 and I also suspect him right now because of PoE.

CalignoBot wrote:

Rantai, are you absolutely sure about this? I'm getting a very bad feeling about this wagon with the DakeDekaane vote.

More sure than that Haneii wagon.

Also considering that everyone except Tanz has posted and no ninja hammer has occurred I'm going to say it's a fairly safe bet (I am going to say Tanz stands more town than scum, but that isn't much to go by unfortunately).


The only thing giving me pause is the fact that he completely tunnel visioned Haneii the entire game. That's one aggressive scum.

At this stage though we have nothing to work on as both our PR's whiffed and cross confirmed each other again. They could be scum together for all I know.

@Caligno - well actually, if you feel stronger about DD then I can go with that too.

I'll only vote for him to hammer though because I'd want to make sure that the others can make their own conclusions first.

Rantai wrote:

@Jinxy - p/2387466/ - pointless reiteration, the point was made
p/2396642/ - jumping onto NH's pressure

For the first one, I didn't think NH answered that question at all so I added in.

NoHitter wrote:

Haneii wrote:

That isn't the only lie [scum] can make. They can say they don't have a power role when they do.

That's why we only lynch suspicious PRs. After we lynch them, we lynch the non-PRs based on how scummy they are.

For the second one, I was replying to Dake's post above and pointing out where exactly the flip-flop was for other people.

Okay I seriously have no idea what to do here

if anyone's a Tracker, claim now plz

I seriously think it's either JInxy or DakeDekaane, if not both of them. in fact, it has to be cause otherwise scum would have hammered by now and won.

now I wonder about Caligno. someone made a point D1 of how Irre was acting even more ridiculous than in previous games, and currently it seems to me like Caligno is hesitating way too much. and it seems he's kind of misleading a bit, not only with Haneii, but I got confused just reading some of his huge posts.

Jinxy, yes he could have been hammered by now.

DD, while likely, no because Jinxy is scum (can't ninja hammer if scum initiates).

Likely to be scum*

I doubt there's a tracker here, if there is, he should be at least tracked any of the PRs and found an inconsistency, and we'd have ended this day quickly, but it seems this is not the case. And it'd be pretty stupid for scum voting each other in LyLo.

Now let's see~

Rantai is the only confirmed town left.
pieguy/fartownik are claimed PRs who God knows if any of them scum of not.
Tanz/Jinxy/Caligno/DD(me) are the non-PRs left.

Tanz looks pretty townie.
Caligno is tainted with Irre's behaviour.
Jinxy is still null and pushed Haneii too much imo and I'm pretty sure he's scum by PoE.

There are 3 scum left, they can't be in all of non-PR. There should be at least 1 in the claimed PR, even both, but we can't take the risk of lynching any of them, as if we miss, we're dead.
pieguy was keeping his will on protecting RB and it seems he protected Rantai in the end.
fart went for Rantai as it seemed pieguy was seriously to protect RB.

DakeDekaane wrote:

And it'd be pretty stupid for scum voting each other in LyLo.

How so? Distance voting is always popular.

pieguy1372 wrote:

now I wonder about Caligno. someone made a point D1 of how Irre was acting even more ridiculous than in previous games, and currently it seems to me like Caligno is hesitating way too much. and it seems he's kind of misleading a bit, not only with Haneii, but I got confused just reading some of his huge posts.

This situation is a lot different than Day 2. There's an inherent risk of scum piling on in a lynch for an instant win, so I want to make sure that we come to a clear consensus before making any possibly game-ending decisions.

Please let me know if you see any mistakes

Rantai wrote:

Also considering that everyone except Tanz has posted and no ninja hammer has occurred I'm going to say it's a fairly safe bet (I am going to say Tanz stands more town than scum, but that isn't much to go by unfortunately).

I was asleep, sorry.

the situation is pretty dire. we again have the situation of our PRs having convenient claims, thus completly useless for us. we had the chance to confirm pieguy, and he should've known that jailkeeping RB is the only sound thing to do.

then we have the problem of scum shooting RB. overall, the chance of mafia targetting him and not getting watched or blocked was 25%. add to that the unlikeliness of pieguy not jking RB, and I think we can see that this turn of events, the worst possible case for town, was really unlikely. without saying much more, I'm highely suspicious.

then caligno. yes he could be scum in disguise. but I don't think that he is. why? I think it's safe to assume that he is the best player in this round. I don't think that he would act the way he did if he was scum. he seems to be taken aback that his assumptions turned out wrong. I don't think any experienced player would make himself this vulnerable.

then we have jinxy and DD. I think that if jinxy was town, he would be dead by now and we would've lost. because ninja hammer. DD on the other hand didn't get ninja hammered. this shows even more that jinxy should be the scum, as mafia doesn't have the 3 votes they need to ninja lynch him. of course there is also the case of crossvoting, if both of them are scum. in which case the question arises: who is the third scum? fart or caligno?

I am highly suspicious of fart and pieguy at this point, and jinxy seems to be scum aswell. I don't think caligno is scum, and DD is at least a little bit less likely to be scum than jinxy is.

Bear in mind quantity =/= quality.

In some cases it will be an analysis that takes everything into account (that's good), sometimes a fluff post (ie thread summary with a little bit of insight here and there) or simply a distraction post made to look town but has absolutely nothing in it/has misleading information.

I haven't quite made my mind up about Caligno just yet but it's very naive to believe he is town simply because he "was taken aback" (especially if the player is experienced). You should also note there have been many instances where the largest contributor was actually scum.

it's just as naive to assume that I am town for my nooby behaviour, or that fart and pieguy are town for their PR claims. at this point, all of this is likely.


I also overlooked something. there is one other possibility for jinxy (or DD) not being lynched yet: scum didn't recruit the traitor and doesn't want to risk lynching him. this is also a possibility to consider, I think.

The only reason I think you're town is because of your unprovoked opposition to NH's plan.

Same basis as Haneii (lo and behold, she was town). If the traitor is here then we've already lost; all 3 scum roleclaim and the traitor collaborates.