animask wrote:

(I'm not mafia and even if I was, I wouldn't need to respond so much to his posts in-thread.)

As Rolled stated, this statement is scummy.

animask wrote:

Ph0X wrote:

[quote removed]

Freudian slip? Rolled could be saying he's vanilla here.

Why vanilla? I don't really get what you're trying to point out. Re-read and I still can't see it.

"Not really much else to go on." Mafia members, cops, and to a certain extent doctors do have extra information to go on. Vanillas don't.

animask wrote:

My turn for question asking.

Question: Do you assume everyone else is townie, mafia or neutral until proven guilty? Most of the time?

Everyone wants to win. I see everyone as neutral, then shift them toward townie or mafia. Sure, it leads me to keeping players on those sides (sort of a tunnel vision), but it's just how I see the game.

Rolled wrote:

Let me first state that there is a very fine line between scum painting and scum hunting. Different players, when holding different roles, act differently. This psychology aspect of WWG/Mafia games is the sole reason why I play the game. And you can't get players to give a reaction unless you give them something to react to.

What does that have to do with scumpainting and scumhunting?

Rolled wrote:

I don't think those other two scenarios are as obvious as you're making them out to be. A lot of people play this game cautiously, and wait for somebody to display themselves as a dumbass so they can rest well after placing their vote, especially d1. I'll admit that the other two scenarios are apparent, now, but I wouldn't have called them obvious. Given your meta it is a valid defense.

Coo'.

Rolled wrote:

ph0x wrote:

I completely disagree that it was hypocritical of rust to make that statement against Rolled

As far as Rust's hypocrisy, when taken literally, his OP and reasoning for suspecting me could not have been more hypocritical. Regardless of the fact that rust's post was a RVS, that doesn't change the fact.

You may mean "when taken seriously"; rust's statement wasn't figurative. rust's initial vote wasn't meant to be taken seriously; because you took it seriously, you misinterpreted, thus leading to this name-calling argument.

Rolled wrote:

ph0x wrote:

Basically, Rolled is just scumpainting me here. Setting me up for a day 2 lynch, I presume

Could you please elaborate on your thought process here? Are you suggesting that I'm setting you up for a d2 lynch as scum, or as town.

"Look; Ph0X was scummy day 1 (as I pointed out here). He tried to cover it up, but now we've got him!"

Something like that.

Rolled wrote:

ph0x wrote:

[quote removed]

Again with this meta. Vote for me if you want. If I was mafia, I could sabotage the game for you townies, so your line of thinking turns meaningless.

The wording here by you is strange. I can label deliberate grouping-of-oneself-with-town to be scummy sometimes, but I've never seen somebody deliberately group themselves with mafia, even with the context of your sentence. You're asking somebody to call you out here with the way you've worded this.

There are two scenarios here (unless there's some neutral alignment):

I am town. I can use my experience to help the town greatly with scumhunting.
I am mafia. I can use my experience and meta influence to steer the town in the wrong direction.

It seems you only considered the first, not the second, case.

Rolled wrote:

Maybe that's WIFOMish. But I never understood the concept of WIFOM anyway.

If I am understanding you correctly, no, that is not WIFOM.

Rolled wrote:

ph0x wrote:

I can see why you're discouraging DxS for his reasoning (and I completely agree), but I don't see why you're trying to get the vote off of Chris and "somewhere else". Why aren't you telling Chris to change his vote? In addition, DxS's reasoning is a "good cop-out" if DxS is a town (or of any alignment, really) who has nothing to go on, too. (Again with the scumpainting, yeah?)

First and foremost, Chris is probably one of the most stubborn people I've ever met. He could vote for somebody because of the shirt they're wearing, and I couldn't pay him to change it. Other than that, I don't take Chris's vote to be as OMGUS as you're making it out to be. OMGUS votes tend to more on the RVS side of the spectrum, and Chris has not only explained himself, but also has questioned DxS on numerous occasions. I understand that DxS has responded to the questioning as of right now, but that doesn't deter from the fact that the vote is not as OMGUS as you may think.

[Formatting corrected in quote]
I don't think you saw or addressed the issue here. I guess it's not important enough for you to respond to, though.

Rolled wrote:

ph0x wrote:

Typo? Did you mean "most likely to be pro-mafia"?

Sarcasm? I'm assuming it's trolly because otherwise it makes no sense.

[Formatting corrected in quote]
Let me isolate the confusion:

Rolled wrote:

... find the person you feel most likely to be pro-town and hop on the wagon

Wouldn't you hop on the wagon against the person you feel is most likely to be pro-mafia?

Rolled wrote:

And did you truly suggest the same thing HNM1? I did quite a bit meta research, but did not see that. Well done if so, I like the thinking behind it (even though you said it didn't work well)

See my vote against Mashley.

Rolled wrote:

ph0x wrote:

[quote removed about defending other players]

In my experience, that's not true.

Maybe it isn't true, but that's flawed logic in the defending player, then. The only people that have valid reason to defend another person would be Mafia and the Cop. A town member taking some of the heat off of somebody who is possibly anti-town could easily generate false tells, which isn't beneficial for himself personally nor his faction.

Different people have different perspectives. The person who is being attacked should try to defend themselves, yes. But realize there are other players in the game, and that the ideas as reasonings behind the offense and the defense can (and should) be analyzed by all other players. Faulty reasoning is dangerous (and often crafted and hidden), and if it isn't called out the mafia have a better chance of winning each time.

IMO, it's less about defending the attacked person than attacking the attacker.

Ph0x wrote:

Wouldn't you hop on the wagon against the person you feel is most likely to be pro-mafia?

I see, there's been some confusion here.

Let me iterate on my original logic.

Rolled wrote:

Alright, at this point in time we are going nowhere and town has a 0% chance of getting a mafia lynch d1.

I said this because the votes were scattered evenly throughout the board. If we continued to move like this, it's impossible to get a Mafia lynch as all it would taken was one mafia member to bandwagon and get somebody lynched with 2 votes D1.

Rolled wrote:

Instead of gathering your own biased opinions (myself included) that nobody is likely to agree on, I think the best play right now is to find the person you feel most likely to be pro-town and hop on the wagon

There were RV's, there were arguable OMGUS, and there was biased reasoning (gut feelings, etc) Nobody had real meat behind any votes.

Rolled wrote:

I have reason to suspect everybody on that list except for Chris. If any of those 5 people turn out to be mafia, there's a very small chance that they're voting for fellow mafia, so I'm not going to wagon and get a townie lynched.

Of the 5/9 people voting at the time, I've come up with some reason to feel uneasy about 4 out of the 5. (rust, DxS, Two, and animask) If any of them turned out to be Mafia, which I thought (obviously) was a possibility, then they were voting for a town member. Hence I did not want to vote the same way as any of the four.

As I've said, Chris was the only person of the 5 voting that I had no reason to suspect at the time. He had the smallest chance of being Mafia in my mind. Obviously, even if he was Town, he could be voting for another member of town, but the odds are better that he isn't, when compared with everybody else. Flawed math maybe, it sounded better in my head than on paper.

As I have also stated, a bandwagon needs to start for the smallest chance of a successful d1 lynching. When I said "hop on," I meant "vote alongside the person who you thought was most likely to be town."

Rolled wrote:

Experimental logic.

animask wrote:

My turn for question asking.

Question: Do you assume everyone else is townie, mafia or neutral until proven guilty? Most of the time?

Innocent until proven guilty is what I go by. It's kinda close-minded but I don't like to try to directly accuse others, but look for good reasons as to why they're probably scum and let the lynch hopefully prove their guilt.

3 options:

1. rolled and ph0x are both mafia and are trying to seem like they are on opposite sides

2. rolled or ph0x is mafia and is trying to create immunity for themselves

3. rolled and ph0x are both vanilla town and are posting so much because they don't have anything to lose

what do you all think

Two wrote:

3 options:

1. rolled and ph0x are both mafia and are trying to seem like they are on opposite sides

2. rolled or ph0x is mafia and is trying to create immunity for themselves

3. rolled and ph0x are both vanilla town and are posting so much because they don't have anything to lose

what do you all think

I just think they both have "I wanna disprove you" egos because they're both experienced at the game. Maybe I'm reading it wrong though.

Two wrote:

3 options:

1. rolled and ph0x are both mafia and are trying to seem like they are on opposite sides

2. rolled or ph0x is mafia and is trying to create immunity for themselves

3. rolled and ph0x are both vanilla town and are posting so much because they don't have anything to lose

what do you all think

1. is out of the question on D1, no mafia would sacrifice another member on D1, would make it almost impossible to win.

Well, it's a good sign for me since I couldn't fully understand Rolled's experimental vote until now. It's better then townies just wondering around having nothing said.

rust45 wrote:

1. is out of the question on D1, no mafia would sacrifice another member on D1, would make it almost impossible to win.

He meant by "distancing themselves"

Rolled wrote:

As I have also stated, a bandwagon needs to start for the smallest chance of a successful d1 lynching. When I said "hop on," I meant "vote alongside the person who you thought was most likely to be town."

Okay; that's all I needed to know. (I had already accounted for that possibility, but I still wanted a clarification to be sure that's what you meant.)

Rolled wrote:

Experimental logic.

Yeah. I know. I understood it completely.

Two wrote:

3 options:

1. rolled and ph0x are both mafia and are trying to seem like they are on opposite sides

2. rolled or ph0x is mafia and is trying to create immunity for themselves

3. rolled and ph0x are both vanilla town and are posting so much because they don't have anything to lose

what do you all think

I vote for option 2. That sounds coolest.

bmin11 wrote:

Well, it's a good sign for me since I couldn't fully understand Rolled's experimental vote until now. It's better then townies just wondering around having nothing said.

Why ... didn't you say anything?

Two wrote:

3 options:

1. rolled and ph0x are both mafia and are trying to seem like they are on opposite sides

2. rolled or ph0x is mafia and is trying to create immunity for themselves

3. rolled and ph0x are both vanilla town and are posting so much because they don't have anything to lose

Okay, I'm back to normal...

I don't think Rolled and Ph0X are both mafia, but only because of the odds. With the third option that you posted,
I'd like to say that posting a lot can go towards townie or mafia. The only dangers of posting would be to say
something that can be considered a scum tell. I guess I'd have to go with option 2 since there isn't any other good options.

Now to answer my own question so I don't leave myself out of the results...

I'd think that most of the people I see are townies, because there are less mafia members to begin with. Then, I
would find out who is suspicious and avoid even stating an FoS until I have some good evidence to prove it. With Rolled,
I just went with my gut and also, since unvoting is allowed(sorta), I decided to vote instead of FoS. The reason for voting before an FoS
was also because I wanted to find out if Rolled was suspicious or if his playstyle was making me think that. By voting, I could
add more pressure on him and make him feel pressured.

I try to play without using much emotion to influence my ideas or thoughts.

@Rolled

Yes, the mafia will vote for a townie almost 100%. Also, I see how Chris would be on your "townie" list at the time, but what
will happen if Chris votes for someone who is currently being voted for? Have you figured out how he fits into the game then?

@Ph0X

I just realized that your acts of thinking as if you were mafia and actually getting away with it is kind of making me jealous.
--(Meta-game Zone)--
In other/previous games, I've failed to do that multiple times. In HNM1, Day 1 was when people were reading me as scum
for all my posts. Luckily, I didn't get lynched, but I had to save myself and ended up getting the Cop killed instead. The reason
for that was role-fishing. In another mafia game, I was also accused of role-fishing and had nobody else to claim as mafia and
no idea how to defend myself.
--------
The reason for this is probably because I'm horrible at looking like a pro-townie.

Also, I meant that it should be obvious that townies have less information to go by than aux/mafia (especially mafia).
Why would that be considered townie? Freudian slip... which means you're saying that you think he is townie? That doesn't seem
like enough information to go by.

@Chris

You actually make sense with your very few post(s). Rolled and Ph0X do seem experienced, but if they only try to disprove
each others ideas, then that is more like a conflict than a discussion. I see more of a discussion in their posts.

Is that enough for this post? Yeah, I think so.

Ph0X wrote:

bmin11 wrote:

Well, it's a good sign for me since I couldn't fully understand Rolled's experimental vote until now. It's better then townies just wondering around having nothing said.

Why ... didn't you say anything?

Reason why I didn't ask for Rolled's experimental vote:
I thought I understood when I read his post, but after reading Rolled's elaborated post, I realized I didn't fully understood his vote. Similar (or worse since I believed I understood it) with you I guess.

Reason why I didn't say much:
Because of the same reason between you and DxS on HNM1. I couldn't really add much into it, but busy reading walls of texts and Rolled's "stop defending someone it only makes you look suspicious" post made me think again before posting (thought my posts could only be misleading Rolled's thinking)

this game has such bad chemistry

all I've been able to conclude is that animask and rolled don't know each other's roles

oh and that quaraezha is mafia

I noticed that DeathxShinigami stopped posting once they got voted against, almost two days now.

animask wrote:

@Rolled

Yes, the mafia will vote for a townie almost 100%. Also, I see how Chris would be on your "townie" list at the time, but what
will happen if Chris votes for someone who is currently being voted for? Have you figured out how he fits into the game then?

I didn't consider that because this strategy will only be valid d1. The nightkill will hopefully provide enough information to bring up stronger points against players.

Pretty sure the vote count is as follows:
DxS - 3 (Rolled, Chris, Two)
Rolled - 1 (animask)

Sorry if I missed anybody, I was just skimming.

My question to everybody else:
What is your reason for not voting?

Like I said to animask's question: "Innocent until proven guilty." Basically, I don't find there to be enough scummy behavior on anyone to vote just yet.

I would imagine that scumhunting and "innocent until proven guilty" need to go hand and hand.

Do you expect somebody to jump up and down and claim mafia? Or are you letting other players do the hunting?

I got prodded. I am posting.

Currently getting off work atm.

So I shall post more later tonight...

DeathxShinigami wrote:

So I shall post more later tonight...

It's odd that you've posted twice in another game, while neglecting to post in this one.

Chris wrote:

DeathxShinigami wrote:

So I shall post more later tonight...

It's odd that you've posted twice in another game, while neglecting to post in this one.

The fact that you're pointing it out actually disturbs me for some reason.

DeathxShinigami wrote:

I got prodded. I am posting.

Currently getting off work atm.

So I shall post more later tonight...

these posts make me rage so hard

if you can post something that long (and do a followup post ^) you can post something substantive

Rolled wrote:

My question to everybody else:
What is your reason for not voting?

Rules say my vote won't count until 24 hours before the deadline. Plus, I haven't had time to analyze the game again.

Two wrote:

DeathxShinigami wrote:

I got prodded. I am posting.

Currently getting off work atm.

So I shall post more later tonight...

these posts make me rage so hard

if you can post something that long (and do a followup post ^) you can post something substantive

Not really. I can squeeze in a minute or two at work, but not 30 minutes or an hour to do some in-depth analysis like I have done before.

Ph0X wrote:

Rules say my vote won't count until 24 hours before the deadline. Plus, I haven't had time to analyze the game again.

MOD: Not to intrude, but if someone reaches the lynch amount before then, they will be lynched like normal.

DxS has requested replacement: Finding a replacement for DxS.

so like... whoever joins is definitely mafia?

foulcoon will be replacing DxS, once he posts in thread.

replacing DxS fa sho, because Rolled wanted me to play mafia. Give me a few to actually read the thread

OH MY GOD I CAN'T VOTE FOR FOULCOON :(:(:(

Rolled wrote:

OH MY GOD I CAN'T VOTE FOR FOULCOON :(:(:(

Votes are transfered to the new replacements in games, so you technically are.

Wooo so that gives me what, 3 votes already? Thanks DxS!

I read a good portion.

Its really obvious to me who is taking the game seriously right now, but a few things come to mind:

1. I would really like to hear more from Quaraezha, because I don't care much for people who post multiple times with absolutely no substance.

2. I would really like to hear less from Ph0x (lol), because there is such a thing as taking it too seriously. I tried to read your walls of text but I'll have to go back to them later to actually figure out what you're getting at.

3. The more animask posts the more I think he's mafia.

No vote for now.

The lack of votes from everybody makes it really hard to tell what direction this game will be going, and how D1 will end. I'm not too familiar with DxS's meta but the fact that he asked for a replacement rather than just giving up and letting the votes fall how they may D1 makes me think that he had a power role in this game. Wifom wifom wifom.

After finishing thoroughly reading posts, I'm going to vote: rust45

rust just seems to either be either:

a. putting little to no effort into the game and taking more of a spectator role

or

b. trying to stay under the radar

Its not really in our best interests to wait for someone to act super guilty, or role claim mafia. I just think that the way you're approaching this is all wrong.

I also think its funny that all that Innocent until proven Guilty bullshit came out of your mouth after voting Chris because you didn't know who he was. I get that its day one but come on.

do you have any thoughts about why deathxshinigami would choose to leave this game and stay in the other(s), foulcoon?

Honestly? I'd say he probably bit off more than he could chew, or has more attention invested in the other games. From reading his responses in this thread, they were generally short and didn't seem focused at all.

foulcoon wrote:

After finishing thoroughly reading posts, I'm going to vote: rust45

rust just seems to either be either:

a. putting little to no effort into the game and taking more of a spectator role

or

b. trying to stay under the radar

Its not really in our best interests to wait for someone to act super guilty, or role claim mafia. I just think that the way you're approaching this is all wrong.

If you look at HNM1, you would see I basically played the same way, laying low and letting others do the investigation. I realize this isn't the best way to move about, but in a game that's fun to play in (even when giving as little input as I did in HNM1 and as people say now), survival is important to me, no matter the role.

However, I don't think I'm the only one trying to lay low, Quaraezha is barely posting and when he posts, there's no substance, honestly, I think that's more suspicious if you ask me, especially since he basically acted like this in the games he was scum in.

foulcoon wrote:

I also think its funny that all that Innocent until proven Guilty bullshit came out of your mouth after voting Chris because you didn't know who he was. I get that its day one but come on.

I don't use RVS to scum hunt, I use it to start conversation (like that vote did do) and I honestly don't think my RVS should be related to that.

However, I will cast a FoS: Quaraezha because I want him to start talking hopefully.

Funny how I want to vote animask, but my gut never agrees with me.

(Meta gaming) Both rust45 and Q weren't active on the last game, one was found innocent and one was guilty, but their lurkiness lead to the same result, lynch. However, they chose to do this again. I'm wondering why they are taking the same action that lead to their lynch It's really hard to think if they are doing this intentionaly or just their play style. Either way, I agree that it's not beneficial to townies.

Quaraezha wrote:

hi guys

Sorry for being inactive, I've been really busy working on the layout for osu!monthly since I had a deadline.
Really had no time to read so many tl;dr posts (from other Mafia games too)
I'll try to catch up when I'm free.

Once I start seeing good activity and substance I'll be fine. I'm actually really uneasy with you because you're acting like always (when looking at the other two games I was in with you) and when you act like that, you end up scum, I know meta shouldn't be used to vote on someone (at least I think so) but not talking in general is pretty scummy in itself. But for now, FoS.

again, I don't buy the cop-out posts where people say they don't have enough time to read/post in the thread

they always end up posting on other areas of the site and it takes like 5 minutes to participate

Vote: animask

Going to sleep now.

No posts in the last 17 hours? =[

I was gonna ISO animask and rust (both FoS's) last night, but I fell asleep. So here they are.

rust ISO

I already stated my opinions of the whole rust vs Rolled "hasty judgement" thing. Re-analyzing things from Rolled's point of view doesn't seem to paint rust as scummy (not to say Rolled didn't paint rust as scum).

rust doesn't claim RVS votes are meaningless, so no tells there.

rust says there's not "enough scummy behavior on anyone to vote just yet". rust has done some very very minor scumhunting, and has been answering questions, and that's it. rust does not attempt to analyze things at this point.

Luckily, he next post of his shows some effort. It seems to have been sparked solely by a vote against him.

rust45 wrote:

... survival is important to me, no matter the role.

Yeah, well, if it's an "always" thing, you shouldn't be using it to defend yourself, right?

rust continues his defense by redirecting the fire toward Q, another relatively-inactive player. Clearly, rust feels really pressured, moreso than I would think for a townie. I'd like to look at his other game (HNM1) and see how he reacted to votes there.

rust pressure posts: HNM day 2, and ... no others. So, not much to go on. I still think rust feels "too" pressured.

rust's later comment on RVS shows better understanding of the game, as noted before.

animask ISO

After RVS has basically already ended, animask throws what looks like an RVS vote at Rolled. Before then, animask did nothing. Perhaps animask was discouraged from talking so early in the game due to what happened last game (HNM1); perhaps animask wants to be more cautious due to having an aux role.

After the maybe-RVS vote, animask throws in an odd comment. More on this in a bit.

animask then posts his "ideas" (not suspicions) list. I can't read anything from animask from the list. However, at the end, animask makes a comment toward Rolled: "I'm supposed to be reckless player." Seems like a bit of a setup (post 1, post 4, post 5). Really not sure what to make of it; could be a mafia tactic to cover up future mistakes, or just animask being animask.

animask's reply to Rolled's desperation provides some useful information (as I have mentioned before (see end of post)). animask seems so devoted to meta, though, which is dangerous.

animask's next post was fully responded to by me. My thoughts of the post have not changed.

Next, in animask's "back to normal" post, he responds to a few questions. He states his vote was intended to put pressure on Rolled. It ... didn't seem to work, because that mostly only works if there's some good reasoning against the player already (which could lead to a bandwagon). Either way, I didn't feel that was the original intent of animask's post.

May as well respond to your comments here:

animask wrote:

Also, I meant that it should be obvious that townies have less information to go by than aux/mafia (especially mafia).
Why would that be considered townie? Freudian slip... which means you're saying that you think he is townie? That doesn't seem
like enough information to go by.

Well, of course it's obvious. But the comment looked subconscious. A non-vanilla player, or a vanilla player conscious of what they were saying exactly, probably would not have said it so "casually"; they would have worded it differently, I think. It's certainly not a full tell, but just a hint and something I noticed.

To round up this ISO of animask ... It seems like animask is stepping up his game after being accused or noticed. This is a big shift from what animask would probably have done last game. At first, I concluded animask's behaviour was a scum tell, hence my vote. Now, I view it as a null-tell. Still, that "plan" of acting like a chaotic player I mentioned still irks me, and leads me to believe animask is hiding something.

... So.

FoS animask, FoS rust. I am keeping my vote on animask, mostly on gut feeling.

I don't have enough time and energy to do more ISO. Others are welcome to do their own, of course. (In fact, I encourage it. ;P)

Also, hi, foul.

@Ph0X, The reason that I want to be cautious is because of how easily I become
suspicious. I realized that being reckless last time was sort of successful because of
my aux role roleclaim. After repeating this behavior, the results from last time just seemed situational.

Okay, now I see what you meant about the "freudian-slip" thing, but it seems more like a "townie-tell".
You meant something like that, right?

@foulcoon, (aka sexy bitch) (also, hi) you FoS'd rust45 for almost the same reasons that
got me FoS'd by Ph0X. You have examples with rust45 that are more concrete, so seeing some
evidence actually helps with Ph0X's explanation. Yet, this seems like just enough information
for me to put an FoS on rust.

FoS rust45

I guess I just was suspicious of Rolled because of his behavior at the start. That was my other reason as to why I voted for Rolled.
Things start to get more serious once the game starts moving. That was my other reason as to why I voted for Rolled.

Posting this as LS asked.

LadySuburu wrote:

Posting to say I have limited internet access (PS3 when I do.) until mon/tues. Will check on threads when I do have access but posting is difficult. If someone would pass this message on in the other two threads that would be great.

Question to Mod: Isn't the deadline tomorrow? Will you still keep the deadline up? Also, you didn't reset votes 24 hours before the deadline.

So I decided to try to do an ISO on Quaraezha, but there was so little in most of his posts that I couldn't really find much. I can say that none of his posts so far have been trying to scum hunt, and most of them, he's talking about himself.

I did find this though:

Quaraezha wrote:

I don't honestly think DxS is mafia too actually.

This is the only post I found where he was talking about somebody else, but he didn't even provide a reason. If it's just you're gut, at least take the five seconds to say, "My gut thinks he's town"

I also kinda agree with Two on the whole posts about talking about when you're busy. Course, only in cases that actually justify it (some busy posts probably are valid). Looking at Q's post history, it looks like he had plenty of time to come in and defend himself, yet he didn't.

I'm pretty sure it passed the 24 hours before lynch time. I don't see any vote reset :<
Is this some kind of a role act or is it just LS being forgetfull?

For someone who's posts have amounted to basically "I'm not sure", you sure are eager to cast your final vote.

Two wrote:

For someone who's posts have amounted to basically "I'm not sure", you sure are eager to cast your final vote.

Yes I'm still not sure, but I was curious if there's such role as "no vote resets" or something + everyone's posts before they vote. It's the time where people start summarizes their thoughts and I thought this may help me making my thought out

well it's been 4 days 18 hours and 55? minutes since the game started afaik

guess that means the day is over in 5 hours?

Gonna see who's about to get lynch

foulcoon (3): Chris, Rolled, Two
Rolled (1): animask
rust45 (1): foulcoon
animask (1): Ph0X


I guess people wants foulcoon to be lynched (even most suspicion came from DxS). I have nothing much to say for him. Sad how DxS gave you a tough situation :<

I'm worried with Q for his lurkiness even thought he said "Sorry I was busy". He usualy ends up being scum (meta gaming dfnvkwen). I'm willing to lynch him for a public lynch (lynching people who aren't beneficial to townies) as I found he's playing on every single mafia games around here. It's hard for me to expect Q to fully participate if he continues this ;_;

animask? Probably town *sigh* WIFOM but I do agree he would be more careful if he had some kind of a role. He's recklessness shows on every single games as well :<.... meta gaming, but it shows his present style.


I'm willing to have an extension however, since there was no vote reset and people aren't really voting at the time being as well (they probably expected for a vote reset and not didn't vote nor unvote)

Votes were automatically reset. Or, they would have been if I wasn't extending deadline to tues. This extention applies to the other game if deadline would hit before tues.

In the future, although I will try to post the reset, assume the votes were reset once 24 hrs left hits.

zzzzzzzzz

Extended to Tuesday
Resets are automatic

Got it

Oh yay, an extension. It seems people have been inactive this weekend (perhaps due to a holiday?).

I'll look at more players ISO, and reread the thread, when I snag some time for myself.

Less than 24 hours remaining. Reminder that all votes were reset about 3 hours ago.

I've taken the whole DxS/Foulcoon situation into consideration, and I decided that I truly don't feel it to be scummy behavior to ask for a replacement. I will ISO myself just so everybody knows that I am aware this almost directly contradicts what I said earlier ITT:

Rolled wrote:

The lack of votes from everybody makes it really hard to tell what direction this game will be going, and how D1 will end. I'm not too familiar with DxS's meta but the fact that he asked for a replacement rather than just giving up and letting the votes fall how they may D1 makes me think that he had a power role in this game. Wifom wifom wifom.

I've reanalyzed, and have decided that perhaps DxS backed out simply because he had too much on his plate. Foulcoon came in gung-ho to participate, until realizing he was on track to get lynched, in which case he almost immediately lost interest and ceased to participate. (Not personally attacking foulcoon, the whole game was pretty dead for a day or two)

I also feel that if foulcoon was given the chance to survive, he'd be more than happy to participate in the game regardless of his role. This game isn't fun without people participating.

That said, I'm going to cast my vote for Quaraezha

I can meta all day and show past games where Q's inactivity went hand in hand with his mafia role, but I truly feel that his style is just so sit back and let all of the action and finger-pointing happen around him, before eventually casting his vote with little reasoning behind it. This is not beneficial to town, even if he rolled pro-town.

Let me explain better, and say that I'm not stating I feel asking for a replacement is a town-tell, but I'm saying it doesn't have to be a scum-tell.

I lost my track of thought after a break from mafia...

Vote: Rolled

Going with my previous assumptions. He seems like he
could be trying to cover up something he was hiding from
earlier.

animask, you reinvent the reason you voted for rolled every time you post

Two wrote:

animask, you reinvent the reason you voted for rolled every time you post

Have you thought that I just have multiple reasons?

Also, this is mostly just a revote because of the reset.

k list every reason why you are voting for rolled in detail

failure to do this will result in a vote from me

@Two, okay, I should recheck some posts anyways...

I guess I just was suspicious of Rolled because of his behavior at the start. That was my other reason as to why I voted for Rolled.
Things start to get more serious once the game starts moving. That was my other reason as to why I voted for Rolled. pg.10

Some people like to play differently. I'm a townie so everybody else isn't mafia. You should get to learn how people play before
you assume they are mafia or not. I have a good idea on what your play style is like, so now I know what to do to help you.
(I'm a newbie lulz) The reason I think you're sus(s) is because you are accusing almost everyone of being mafia.
That is actually a scum tell. pg. 7

A scum tell doesn't always mark scum.

Therefore...

Vote: Rolled

Oh, I know I'll be unvoting you~

pg. 4

Kay done. I just reassured my vote a little more now... Even though I should read some other posts...

Addition to last post.

Oh right, details...

Quote 1

His aggressive behavior at the start made me think he was trying to hide something.
This goes with my more recent post. I think that initial posts should be weighed more.
Later on, you become more suspicious of people and others suspicious of you. When this
happens, people start to change their posting behavior (usually).

Quote 2

I thought that his immediate accusations of who may be mafia. This one was an obvious
scum-tell that furthered my suspicion.

Quote 3

The game just started here so I was being a bit hasty, but I posted the reason for
voting was to pressure Rolled into saying something that could be a scum-tell. Since
there was an unvote at the last 24 hours, I thought this would work out fine if I wanted
to switch votes later in Day 1.

animask wrote:

His aggressive behavior at the start made me think he was trying to hide something.
This goes with my more recent post. I think that initial posts should be weighed more.
Later on, you become more suspicious of people and others suspicious of you. When this
happens, people start to change their posting behavior (usually).

I'd understand if you coupled this reasoning with a reverse psychology claim, but as-is I don't think it makes much sense logically. I have absolutely nothing to hide this game. I'm vanilla town, and I feel the way I can contribute the most to my team is to have an aggressive playstyle and force other players to talk. It is the mafia who have things to hide, hence they like to stay out of the line of fire. I'm fine going into the front lines. Especially because I don't expect my life to last long in this game (NKs) I want to contribute as much as possible, in the little amount of time I'm allotted.

animask wrote:

I thought that his immediate accusations of who may be mafia. This one was an obvious
scum-tell that furthered my suspicion.

This sentence doesn't really make sense, but I'm going to assume that you meant "Rolled is accusing everybody of being mafia, and this is a scumtell." Obviously I know everybody isn't mafia. As I've said earlier, people react differently in this game to accusations depending on the role that they hold. I can't see how they react unless I give them something to react to.

animask wrote:

The game just started here so I was being a bit hasty, but I posted the reason for
voting was to pressure Rolled into saying something that could be a scum-tell. Since
there was an unvote at the last 24 hours, I thought this would work out fine if I wanted
to switch votes later in Day 1.

Well we share similar thinking processes here, however I don't agree with what you think is a scumtell, and justifies a vote for me.

The good thing about your accusations, is it makes me feel that you are pro-town. This could be my ego talking, but I'd expect mafia to silently NK me rather than raising a lynch hypothesis.

p.s. - The above statement does not translate to "If I vote for Rolled I'll look pro-town ^__^"
Assholes ;(
Keyword: Raise a hypothesis.

I'm going to vote for quaraezha

Not because I think he's mafia. Because I know that lynching anyone else will hurt the 'game' part of this mafia game. He's also posted literally nothing that would be useful day 2 to us, town or not.

LadySuburu wrote:

Less than 24 hours remaining. Reminder that all votes were reset about 3 hours ago.

Oh dear.

Breakdown of my general thoughts of each player so I can collect my thoughts before continuing:

animask
As I said before, I think there was some tactical setup done by animask. animask seems a bit more desperate this game (especially his latest few posts), though I don't think I should take that into account. Holding my FoS on animask.

bmin
Don't remember much; seems hidden from my view. (At first I was surprised he was even in this game ... being detached for only a little bit made me forget so much!) He's keeping the same "helpful townie" role he had in HNM1, so no tells there. I think he'll be useful later game, too. No suspicions.

Chris
Acted pretty OMGUS-y against DxS (now played by foul), enough to throw a vote. Vote stuck. Not sure if I should believe Rolled's claim that Chris just sticks with his vote, or if Chris is using that comment to his advantage, or what. Kind of weird; not quite sure what to think. I want to see how Chris plays day 2. Other than that, Chris hasn't contributed much.

foul
Had a burst of "ohai!", then everything went silent when the weekend hit. Made me notice rust a bit more (enough to lead to an ISO read). No tells.

As for DxS's behaviour: I don't know what to think, really, because I can hardly figure out DxS's line of thinking. I will look what happened again some time, though.

Q
Lately there's been some annoyance toward Q, and rightfully so. Q was last online very recently, so I don't see why they haven't posted. Either they are disinterested in mafia games (then why keep joining?), have other priorities (ask for a replacement?), or are intentionally lurking. Judging from Q's meta, as others have pointed out, the lurking seems to be intentional, or at least non-accidental. Thus, a FoS on Q,

Rolled
Pretty cool dude. ;P Yeah, he has flaws in his logic sometimes, but overall a very forceful and important player (and his meta proves this). A few days ago I would have voted for him, but now I am getting pro-town vibes from him.

rust
Only comment I have for rust is that he feels too pressured, and that's purely a gut feeling. Very minor FoS on rust.

Two
This guy... He makes it so hard for me to read him. He comes up with good ideas, but doesn't really explain them (even though I understand the behind-the-scenes work of them for the most part). A real mystery player, because it's hard to read anything off of him because of this. I'm gonna ignore him for now...

So...

Pretty much my FoS's are against animask and Q. Q has two votes on him already, and we learned the hard way (HNM1) that bandwagoning in HNM is a bad idea, as there's no going back. Therefore, I'm gonna vote for animask.

Vote animask

I personally think a policy lynch on Q is the best way to go right now, as he's basically dead weight. However, I won't cast a vote until the last time I can be on before the deadline just to make sure I can weight in what everyone says.

Sorry I've been a bit inactive due to the holiday.

I'm going to vote: animask.

I still don't have a great feeling about rust, but i can let that be for now. As for the bandwagon starting against Q, I don't really feel that its justified, but I can kind of understand the reasoning.

foulcoon wrote:

Sorry I've been a bit inactive due to the holiday.

I'm going to vote: animask.

I still don't have a great feeling about rust, but i can let that be for now. As for the bandwagon starting against Q, I don't really feel that its justified, but I can kind of understand the reasoning.

I'd like to hear your reasoning behind your vote against animask.

bmin, if you have time, can you post your thoughts of each player?

@Ph0X

The reasoning behind my vote is that upon reading the thread for the first time I was pretty critical of what people were saying and who they were voting for, which is why I originally voted for rust. animask was suspicious to me at that point as well, as i stated in my post. The fact that rust has done a bit more talking eased my mind a little bit, but I do still have my doubts. Also, animask's last couple posts have just seemed ridiculously desperate to me. Namely, his idea of these "scum tells" for Rolled seem like hes grasping.

foulcoon wrote:

Namely, his idea of these "scum tells" for Rolled seem like hes grasping.

Hmm... I can see that (not that I entirely believe that view myself). Thanks for your input.

Vote: Quaraezha

Annnnnd... *sleep*

Ph0X wrote:

bmin, if you have time, can you post your thoughts of each player?

Just came back @_@ I don't keep a note really, but I'll write some thoughts of each players


Two: I'm not really a fan of his attitude, but that's just my personal issue. His thoughts seem to be clear, but his posts aren't really providing much reasonings to back up. I bet he could come up with some reasonings, but he just ends up with a short post :<... neutral for me

animask: Another act with his recklessness. Still bit choppy with his ideas and to rounding his reasonings up, but he is getting better (less annoying). I once wanted to lynch him, but my gut is reading town. I agree that he wouldn't be so aggressive (+ reckless) if he was mafia. Town to me

foulcoon: Nothing much to go on. He came up with a suspicion for rust45 which I'm following with (more on rust45 paragraph). I guess I'll have to put DxS on this side as well. DxS voting for Chris wasn't really strong enough to have him on my suspicion list and he soon gave up his vote. This was taken as a scumtell by someone (I should recheck), but again, his vote was almost a RV for him and I'm not really concerned with unvoting RVs. Quiting during the game isn't really a scumtell for me, but if he turns out to be mafia, I wouldn't respect his choice then.

Ph0X: I'll usually put his post into my account since most sounds reasonable to me. He's style of defence was taken as a scumtell (not providing much but covering with being sarcastic) and I have nothing much to say. Lots of people use sarcasm and it really isn't that helpfull for me to have a suspicion or not. Neutral for me

rust45: His way of defending arks me. He used his playing style to defence (which I don't buy it at all) and accused Q for the same reason (which I found it ironic). You guys both have a similar playing style and really, accusing for Q's lurkiness is the same as accusing for yourself. What makes you different from Q? You should rather try to convince that you are a town. FoS

Q: Be more active. Actually, playing in all mafia games is ridiculous :<... You also have a meta history of being guilty whenever you lurked. I wouldn't lynch you yet since accusing for lurking isn't a strong reasoning, but if we have a chance to have a public lynch, you will be my wish list. Neutral and this will lean towards mafia on this rate.

Rolled: Current hand of the game. He made most players to post by accusing. I'm getting pro-town since I think mafia wouldn't be this aggressive on scum hunting.

Chris: seems to be very confident foulcoon is mafia. Nothing much to say since he stopped posting after DxS was replaced by foulcoon.



I would vote for rust45, but I found it would be impossible with the vote split we are having right now... Since I think animask is townie, I'll vote Q. This will be a public lynch for me atleast.

keep in mind you have like 7 hours to vote

if you aren't going to be here between now and then, vote now pls

Two wrote:

if you aren't going to be here between now and then, vote now pls

Why?

I'll explain my reasoning as to why I believe Foulcoon (DxS) was mafia.

DeathxShinigami wrote:

Vote: Chris

A friend of two's who has actually been known to be a carpetbagger in this community. Do I trust the words of a person who knows nothing about this community? Probably no.

Trying to get the "we're all friends so vote the other guy out" bandwagon starting. A vote based on something that has nothing to do with the game with his very first post.

DeathxShinigami wrote:

Still a believer in a community based game not a game where we get to drag random people who aren't even involved in this osu! community whatsoever.

He implied that I was a random person, though I've played WWG's with the community before, including him. I asked him a perfectly legitimate question and he avoided it, and then unvoted immediately after when he knew he couldn't respond.

DeathxShinigami wrote:

Have a feeling it'll just be Rolled/Two/Chris vs. everyone else

Whee, can't be that hard to lynch people now isn't it?

On top of that, he tried to paint myself/Two/Rolled as a team when he just tried to get me bandwagon'd out for NOT being apart of the circle of friends that play these games regularly. I don't understand the logic.

After all of this, he decided to not post for two days. I asked LadySuburu to prod him to make him post, and he responded with..

DeathxShinigami wrote:

I got prodded. I am posting.

Currently getting off work atm.

So I shall post more later tonight...

He had time to post that, but not post a constructive reply even after posting TWICE on the other mafia game in the same time span he was ignoring this one. Makes no sense to me at all.

After calling him on it, he posted.

DeathxShingami: The fact that you're pointing it out actually disturbs me for some reason.

Had nothing to do with what I said, didn't give a reason, nothing. Just stalling and trying to pretend to be active.

He had time to make two posts but no time to defend himself.

After that, DeathxShinigami quit the game.

At the end of the day, you decided Q was being pretty much useless. Obviously, he was jealous of the crappy amazing stories written for these games, since he couldn't write any better.

You tie him up, and place him under the nearest tree.

You grab an axe, and start chopping away at the tree.

"I'm Innocent I tell you! I was just busy! Where's my mason friend!? Help me out he---"

The axe head flies off, decapitating Q.

Quaraezha - Townie Mason - Lynched D1

It is now Night 1. Please send all Night actions within 24 hours.

In the morning, you find Chris's body lying in the streets.

Chris - Bus Driver - Town - Killed Night 1

It is now day 2.

With 7 alive, it's 4 to lynch. Deadline is 4 days.

@Chris, this must be how adam feels when he can't understand me. I have no idea what you are saying...

Except for that last bit... Many things could've been the result of him quiting. He probably didn't know what to say
back thinking it wasn't a big deal anyways.

Hmm, you got NK'd. Nevermind then...

Also, I had a feeling Quy was a townie this time...

Now who would want to NK Chris...?

http://wikiguides.neoseeker.com/wiki/Th ... Bus_Driver

K so first of all I think we can all agree that it makes no sense for chris to have died night 1. He was like... the most easily lynchable target behind quaraezha. So obviously he used his bus driver ability on the person who would have been night killed, and that person was either me or rolled since he hates you all.

So now we have to figure out who he swapped with. Here is who would night kill rolled:
Two
Ph0x
rust45
bmin11

Here is who would night kill me:
Rolled
Ph0x
rust45 (at the behest of ph0x or rolled)
bmin11 (at the behest of ph0x or rolled)
animask (at the behest of ph0x or rolled)
sry but none of you are that smart

Since my list is effectively narrowed down to two people (they both aren't mafia), let's look at the reasons they might have to lynch me:
1. I'm awesome
2. I'm intuitive

that's serious but let's focus on Rolled:
1. I always suspect him more than anyone else regardless of his role and he knows it
2. Voting in line with him yesterday could have made him think I was trying to make him not kill me (it was also semi out of character for me)(thinks I'm aux)
3:

Rolled wrote:

Two: I feel that Two is trusting me more in this game than in the past (lolmeta).

just because I didn't outright go against anything he said, trying to give everyone (including me) a false sense of comradery between the two of us
4. I've just been playing in a way that isn't the same as the way I would have played a civilian a year ago (thinks I'm aux)

1b. Rolled has gone for me in every game we've played together where he's been mafia/wolf, so why would he make a mistake like going after me? I used that as a reason to lynch him last time.

now for Ph0x:
1. Also would notice that I've just been playing in a way that isn't the same as the way I would have played a civilian a year ago (thinks I'm aux)
2. I've straight up called him mafia more than once this game and voted for him (it's worth noting that this was early on in the game, so it wouldn't cast suspicion on him ordinarily)
3. before the end of day 1:

Ph0X wrote:

Two
This guy... He makes it so hard for me to read him. He comes up with good ideas, but doesn't really explain them (even though I understand the behind-the-scenes work of them for the most part). A real mystery player, because it's hard to read anything off of him because of this. I'm gonna ignore him for now...

I don't know how many of you can appreciate how telling this paragraph is. Basically, though, he was building distance between us and and trying to do the same thing rolled did in his quote (make me less apprehensive towards him). He did it close enough towards night, and with a lot more subtlety than rolled. So much so that the two statements don't even compare.

another reason I might have been the target:
What reasons do ph0x, rust45, and bmin11 have for night killing rolled?

Ph0x:
1. ph0x would have much more control of day phase
2. actually as I was writing this I realized that since he's spent so much time replying to rolled, it would hurt him to night kill rolled for two reasons: 1. all of that work going towards getting that material to use against him would be wasted, 2. it could have made Ph0x look more suspicious (in Ph0x's eyes)

rust45:
1. d'uhhhhhh rolled talks a lot

bmin11:
1. d'uhhhhhh rolled talks a lot (ilu still ㅇㅅㅇb)

It's pretty obvious to me that I was chosen to be night killed. I don't know if it was rolled or ph0x, but ph0x's end-of-day paragraph that I quoted is so ridiculously mafia-like that it blows rolled out of the water, and I'm voting for ph0x

Cool, we have a fucking game now.
First of all Chris, whoever you did switch with was an absolute brilliant play. We couldn't possibly have any more information d2.

Everybody knows the three of us know each other, we've been painted as a team this entire game. Everybody also knows Chris would not be anywhere near the most beneficial NK target for mafia n1, thus he had to have used his ability.

Chris wouldn't switch with anyone other than myself or Two.

I'm going to cut my potential text-wall off here and just agree thoroughly with everything Two has to say, this paragraph in particular:

Ph0x wrote:

Two
This guy... He makes it so hard for me to read him. He comes up with good ideas, but doesn't really explain them (even though I understand the behind-the-scenes work of them for the most part). A real mystery player, because it's hard to read anything off of him because of this. I'm gonna ignore him for now...

Two is an easier nightkill target than I am, in general. He has a higher rate of success in these games than I do. Combine that with the fact that Ph0x has put in an effort to gather as much material from me as possible, and the fact that I have NKed Two as mafia n1 in the past, it is clear ph0x's intentions were NKing Two N1 and getting me lynched d2. While perhaps you can substitute ph0x's name with any other person in this game and the above paragraph would still make a little sense, however ph0x being mafia is the most likely scenario we have at hand here.

Vote: Ph0x

p.s.: FoS Animask.

Now who would want to NK Chris...?

You know what Chris's ability consists of, and you know he used it. Intentional ignorance?

Sorry, I didn't know what the Bus Driver role did until Two posted.

There's a lot of metagaming going on right now and some of it exists
in this game, because I now see what Chris was doing.
Three of us = Two, Rolled and Chris/Ph0X (I must be a newbie or just not getting something.)

Now I should come up with some theories of my own... (when I think of some).

I don't know animask. Maybe I'm wrong, but I thought you were the type that if you didn't know what a certain role did, you'd head straight to the wiki before potentially making an ignorant post such as your previous one.

And rather than needing to form your own theories, I'm interested in you elaborating on what you think of Two's. I feel it's very important, since you're one of the few people I have to suspect after ph0x.

Also I have no idea what you mean by this:

animask wrote:

Three of us = Two, Rolled and Chris/Ph0X (I must be a newbie or just not getting something.)

Rolled wrote:

Everybody knows the three of us know each other...

Except me...

Oh, then yeah. We've known each other for like 10 years now. People often hold it against us are say it's game breaking and stuff, but really all it ever does is make us over-analyze each other thus causing misreads.

I'd still like to hear your opinion to Two's theory.

Preferably before ph0x signs on.

@Two, first of all, how did you come up with the assumptions that those people would NK Rolled or you?

Meta-gaming with Rolled and Ph0X? I wonder how that's going to work...

Now that I think of it, Ph0X did seem different with his posts for almost no reason.

But I really don't understand what Two is trying to say here...

tl;dr version? (Break it down a bit for me?)

Let me analyze Two's post aloud, because it's a lot to take in and I want to be sure I didn't misinterpret everything.

Two wrote:

K so first of all I think we can all agree that it makes no sense for chris to have died night 1. He was like... the most easily lynchable target behind quaraezha. So obviously he used his bus driver ability on the person who would have been night killed, and that person was either me or rolled since he hates you all.

Fact: Unless there is another manipulative role (not likely), either Chris or his target were swapped. If Chris' target was swapped, Chris must have used his night action on himself, too (duh).

Assumption: Chris targeted either Two or Rolled. Two makes this assumption because "he hates you all", which sounds absurd but is probably true. Still, let's analyze a few scenarios:

Scenario A: Chris thinks [player] is Mafia; Chris feels he is going to be targeted for a kill; Chris swaps himself and [player].
If this occured, the Mafia targeted [player], meaning Chris' guess was (likely) incorrect.

Scenario B: Chris feels he is going to be targeted for a kill, and thinks it's best to have himself die over another player; Chris does not use his ability.
If this occured, the Mafia targeted Chris himself.

Scenario C: Chris thinks [player] is Town; Chris feels he is NOT going to be targeted for a kill; Chris thinks [player] is going to be targeted for a kill, and thinks it's best to have himself die over [player]; Chris swaps himself and [player].
If this occured, the Mafia targeted [player], meaning Chris' guess was (likely) correct.

(I have a feeling I am missing another scenario, but I can't think of it. If someone figures it out, or concludes there are no other scenarios, I'd be grateful.)

To me, Scenario C looks most likely. I don't think Chris thought he would be targeted for a kill, and I don't think he felt that way, either; as Two said, he is a pretty lynchable player. More likely, Chris thought one of the "better" players (Rolled, Two, or myself, not to brag) would be targeted. It's even more likely that Chris would swap himself with a player he had emotional attachment to, so that leaves Rolled and Two, as Two concluded for assumption purposes.

Two wrote:

So now we have to figure out who he swapped with. Here is who would night kill rolled:
Two
Ph0x
rust45
bmin11

Here is who would night kill me:
Rolled
Ph0x
rust45 (at the behest of ph0x or rolled)
bmin11 (at the behest of ph0x or rolled)
animask (at the behest of ph0x or rolled)
sry but none of you are that smart

What makes Two rule out animask for lynching Rolled? And what happened to foul?

I can take a guess to the former: animask was voting for Rolled day 1, and if animask had killed Rolled, animask wouldn't have a lead. Then again, that's WIFOM thinking, but I don't think Two thinks on those terms.

Anyway, what about foul? My guess? Freudian slip, and both Two and foul are mafia members. (If that's the case, note Scenario B above.)

Two wrote:

Since my list is effectively narrowed down to two people (they both aren't mafia)

Assumption: One or zero of Ph0X and Rolled mafia members.
Further assumption: Either Ph0X or Rolled is a mafia member.

I can see from where the first assumption comes, but I think the second assumption Two makes is a bit of a stretch. But sure, let's go with it.

Two wrote:

that's serious but let's focus on Rolled:
1. I always suspect him more than anyone else regardless of his role and he knows it

Meta assumption: Two is more critical of Rolled than he is of other players (in general).
Assumption: Rolled feels the critical pressure from Two.
Assumption: If Rolled is mafia, Rolled wants Two gone because Two could/would find Rolled out.

I think this line of thinking is solid, but it's based on a meta assumption, which to me is really weak.

Two wrote:

2. Voting in line with him yesterday could have made him think I was trying to make him not kill me (it was also semi out of character for me)(thinks I'm aux)

Assumption: Rolled feels Two is trying to be friendly with Rolled to not draw attention to himself, as to not be killed.
Assumption: Rolled sees this friendliness as Two not wanting to be killed.
Assumption: Rolled equates Two not wanting to be killed with Two holding an aux role (town or mafia).
Assumption: If Rolled is mafia, Rolled wants Two gone because Rolled thinks Two holds an aux townie role.

Pretty straight forward. I don't really agree with it, though I did notice Two kinda being under the covers next to Rolled day 1. (I didn't remember Two's meta enough to make any assumptions based off of this, though, despite what Two thinks.)

Two wrote:

3:

Rolled wrote:

Two: I feel that Two is trusting me more in this game than in the past (lolmeta).

just because I didn't outright go against anything he said, trying to give everyone (including me) a false sense of comradery between the two of us

I don't know exactly what Two is thinking here, but here's my guess:

Assumption: Rolled feels Two is trying to buddy with Rolled.
Assumption: Rolled feels buddying with Two would be negative for himself.
Assumption: If Rolled is mafia, Rolled wants Two gone because the buddying paints a bad picture for himself, leading to a more likely lynch of himself.

I'm unsure what to think of this train of thought. At first glance it looks fine and reasonable. I just don't see Rolled thinking that way, though.

Two wrote:

4. I've just been playing in a way that isn't the same as the way I would have played a civilian a year ago (thinks I'm aux)

Meta assumption: Two is acting differently than he does when he was town in other games.
Assumption: Two holds an aux role.
Assumption: If Rolled is mafia, Rolled wants Two gone because Rolled thinks Two holds an aux townie role.

Seems reasonable, if you are lead to believe that meta assumption enough. I certainly don't. A lot can change in a year, or even game-to-game. I don't (or try not to) factor gameplay style into my reasoning, so I don't buy what Two is saying here.

Also, this argument could be used against any player here (see below).

Two wrote:

1b. Rolled has gone for me in every game we've played together where he's been mafia/wolf, so why would he make a mistake like going after me? I used that as a reason to lynch him last time.

Meta fact: Rolled has (often?) gone after Two in the past where Rolled is mafia.
Meta assumption: Rolled always goes after Two if Rolled is mafia (and Two is not mafia).
Assumption: Rolled would not make the mistake of going after Two if Rolled is mafia.

WIFOM? Maybe that's what he wanted you to think, if he did try to kill you?

Two wrote:

now for Ph0x:
1. Also would notice that I've just been playing in a way that isn't the same as the way I would have played a civilian a year ago (thinks I'm aux)

Meta assumption: Ph0X knows Two's play style of a townie from a year ago.
Assumption: Ph0X sees the difference in Two's play style as a sign that Two holds an aux role.
Assumption: If Ph0X is mafia, Ph0X wants Two gone because Ph0X thinks Two holds an aux townie role.

Yeah, not buying it. Same reasoning against Rolled; see my comments there.

Two wrote:

2. I've straight up called him mafia more than once this game and voted for him (it's worth noting that this was early on in the game, so it wouldn't cast suspicion on him ordinarily)

Assumption: Ph0X felt pressured by Two by Two's vote against him on day 1.
Assumption: If Ph0X is mafia, Ph0X wants Two gone because Two might find Ph0X out.

Makes sense. WIFOM finds itself here quite easily, though, so the argument is nullified. (If you can't figure it out: what if, say, animask saw this an wanted to make the kill look like an OMGUS NK?)

Two wrote:

3. before the end of day 1:

Ph0X wrote:

Two
This guy... He makes it so hard for me to read him. He comes up with good ideas, but doesn't really explain them (even though I understand the behind-the-scenes work of them for the most part). A real mystery player, because it's hard to read anything off of him because of this. I'm gonna ignore him for now...

I don't know how many of you can appreciate how telling this paragraph is. Basically, though, he was building distance between us and and trying to do the same thing rolled did in his quote (make me less apprehensive towards him). He did it close enough towards night, and with a lot more subtlety than rolled. So much so that the two statements don't even compare.

Assumption: Ph0X tried to distance himself from Two with above quote.
Assumption: If Ph0X is mafia, Ph0X wants Two gone because ... why? Because there is no association (that the town can see) between Two and Ph0X (in Ph0X's eyes)?

It's not really clear to me what Two is getting at here. I tried to make sense of the logic, but I can't see it. Can you reiterate what would lead to a lynch?

Two wrote:

What reasons do ph0x, rust45, and bmin11 have for night killing rolled?

Ph0x:
1. ph0x would have much more control of day phase
2. actually as I was writing this I realized that since he's spent so much time replying to rolled, it would hurt him to night kill rolled for two reasons: 1. all of that work going towards getting that material to use against him would be wasted, 2. it could have made Ph0x look more suspicious (in Ph0x's eyes)

rust45:
1. d'uhhhhhh rolled talks a lot

bmin11:
1. d'uhhhhhh rolled talks a lot (ilu still ㅇㅅㅇb)

I think Two's comments here are pretty clear, so I won't rehash them.

Two wrote:

It's pretty obvious to me that I was chosen to be night killed.

Assumption: The (incomplete) list of reasons for players nightkilling Rolled proves that nightkilling Rolled would not be sensical.
Assumption: Two is the only alternative to Rolled as a nightkill target (see above).

Yeah, pretty much, if you still want to stick to the "Rolled and I are the only NK targets" assumption (which, as I said, is convincing).

---

Now for responses to accusations on myself, and other comments:

Two wrote:

now for Ph0x:
1. Also would notice that I've just been playing in a way that isn't the same as the way I would have played a civilian a year ago (thinks I'm aux)

No, I don't remember you meta very well (as stated earlier). All I remember is that you and Rolled are very aggressive players. As I also said above, I don't take play style into account when it comes to meta comparisons.

Two wrote:

2. I've straight up called him mafia more than once this game and voted for him (it's worth noting that this was early on in the game, so it wouldn't cast suspicion on him ordinarily)

As I said, this is WIFOM.

Two wrote:

I don't know how many of you can appreciate how telling this paragraph is. Basically, though, he was building distance between us and and trying to do the same thing rolled did in his quote (make me less apprehensive towards him). He did it close enough towards night, and with a lot more subtlety than rolled. So much so that the two statements don't even compare.

I don't understand the reasoning behind this (as stated above); could you elaborate?

Rolled wrote:

Combine that with the fact that Ph0x has put in an effort to gather as much material from me as possible, and the fact that I have NKed Two as mafia n1 in the past, it is clear ph0x's intentions were NKing Two N1 and getting me lynched d2. While perhaps you can substitute ph0x's name with any other person in this game and the above paragraph would still make a little sense, however ph0x being mafia is the most likely scenario we have at hand here.

While reading this, I was gonna comment "well, the same can be said for other players, too", but you ended stated that yourself. But ... then you give a non-reason at the end, so I just see circular reasoning. If you don't see it:

Player A has lots of reason to kill player X. Although you could say the same about player B, player A seems more likely because player A has lots of reason to kill player X.

Maybe I am missing something in your argument?

---

My personal thoughts? I'm entertaining that Two-foul pair I mentioned. I mean, if Two was a newbie, I'd definitely pounce on it. Since he isn't, it's not gonna lead to a vote, just something which is gonna stick in my head for a while.

I don't really enjoy analyzing kills unless they're very surprising (and I wouldn't call a busdriver kill surprising, honestly). All I see is WIFOM in such analyses for the most part (though I do admit some good can come from looking at nightkills).

I will reread things when I have enough time (maybe tomorrow?). I've already spend enough time writing this essay. ;P

I will just say this, take it as fact if you want.

This is the current status of the game.

.::] Alive [::.
1. Two
2. animask
3. foulcoon
4. Ph0x
5. rust45
7. Rolled
8. bmin11

.::] Dead [::.
6. Quaraezha - Townie Mason - Lynched D1
9. Chris - Bus Driver (Town) - Killed N1


Assuming there are 2 mafia and 7 town (5 left now), these are the possible mafia (those who voted for Q):

bmin
Two
rust45
Rolled


I simply mean that I believe with good reason that myself, animask, and Ph0x are not mafia.

Are you seriously suggesting both mafia members voted for Q, foulcoon? At most there was one. In fact, Q was such an easy lynch that it wouldn't surprise me if neither voted for him.

IMO, in order of most likely:
1 Mafia voted for Q; No mafia voted for Q; both mafia voted for Q.

Ph0x wrote:

Maybe I am missing something in your argument?

With the entire way that you've played this game, it's easiest to believe that you are the player with the most to benefit from Two's lynching. You have not spent much time talking to him (D1), while you've made an effort to talk to every other player in the game thus far. In fact, you express your inability to read Two publicly. Whether it was truthful or not, I think it was still a slip up.

Now assuming Chris didn't bite the bullet for Two, you intended to paint me as the player with the most to gain from NKing Two using meta and probably some other things I've said in this game thus far. You have made quite an effort to speak to me, thus you have more information on me to scumpaint, thus I would be an easier lynch target than Two would have been. You wouldn't need to waste a NK. And as you've said, you, two, and myself are some of the more influential players in this game (again, not to brag. meta.) It would be a cake walk for you as mafia if we were both eliminated early. Combine that with the fact that you were one of the two mafia that did not vote for Q D1, you'd look very pro-town to untrained eyes.

Circling back to foulcoon, you have no possible way to be certain both ph0x and animask are town at this point in time. At best you'd know one, and even if you happen to be a cop there's always the possibility you're paranoid (keep in mind, this is experimental.)

Also I'd like to add that I find it very disturbing animask never found the time to answer my question before ph0x managed to respond to Two. While perhaps animask may not have been able to come up with a solid defense for ph0x (assuming they're both mafia), I'm certain that he'd at least be able to comprehend Two's post enough to not require a TLDR version. It's easy to expand off of ph0x's thought process now as animask the mafia goon.

Assuming there are only 2 mafia I am certain that both animask and Ph0X are town. If there are more than 2 mafia I may be mistaken.

That being said, yes I am suggesting that both mafia members voted for Q (if there are only 2). The fact that you make the assumption that only one mafia member voted for Q makes it seem like you're really grasping to avoid suspicion. There is no way that you could possibly know only 1 mafia member voted for Q, unless of course you were mafia.

You are either desperate mafia or being really bad at town imo.

FoS: Rolled

I'm speaking only on common sense. Why would both mafia members associate themselves with a lynching that they know will be town?

I don't know, you tell me.

No, explain your logic. I've explained mine.

Also, I firmly believe that you're wrong about your ph0x and animask claims.

Heres my logic.

I know that 2 mafia voted for lynching Q.

Okay foulcoon here we go.

You are obviously Mason. Let me tell you exactly how the game has played thus far.

-DxS gets placed under heat.
-He's like it's okay, at least my mason partner will come to my rescue.
-Q says this:

Quaraezha wrote:

I don't honestly think DxS is mafia too actually.

-The sad attempt at defending DxS gets ignored, as it had no structure behind it (like any other Q post)
-Chris continues to be a jackass and OMGUS's the shit out of DxS
-DxS is like fuck this game, fuck my partner(s), i'm out.

Now we know for a fact Q was a mason. Let's go back to the vote list.
Q (4): Rolled, Two, Rust, Bmin
We can safely assume none of those four are Mason.

Now I have not ISO'd the other members like I should, but one particular post sticks out from the top of my head. That is you directly defending Q:

Foulcoon wrote:

As for the bandwagon starting against Q, I don't really feel that its justified, but I can kind of understand the reasoning.

So all of that said, I concluded that you were Mason as well. I didn't make it public until now, but that was because I didn't feel it was too beneficial for the town to do so. But now with the new information you're bringing me, I feel it is a must.

Foulcoon wrote:

I simply mean that I believe with good reason that myself, animask, and Ph0x are not mafia.

Foulcoon wrote:

Assuming there are only 2 mafia I am certain that both animask and Ph0X are town

So now, we have two possibilities here.
1.) All FOUR of you are Mason, and you are misinformed of your role.
2.) Three of you are Mason, and you also have Cop as your auxiliary role.

There is no other way that you can be 100% certain that the three of you are town.

Now, when I say that you are misinformed of your role, let me elaborate. Refer back to your Role PM please.

MafiaWiki wrote:

Masons are a group, usually all on the Pro-Town side, that usually have some information about each others alignement. They can communicate with each other at Night, if they choose, but otherwise usually have no special abilities. In one variation of the Mason role, the Masons cannot reveal that they are Masons to the town through roleclaiming. Instead, they must find other ways to defend each other.

This is probably all you are aware of. Let me make this perfectly clear, however:

MafiaWiki wrote:

Sometimes, one member of the masonry group is a scum mason, a person in the masonry who is secretly part of the mafia or some other scum group. This occasionally happens in games where the moderater does not specifically tell all masons that they are all town. (See: unconfirmed masons, sometimes called "Neighbors")

That said, Does your role PM specifically mention all of the Masons are pro-town? Don't answer this publicly, as it will result in your modkill (assuming you can't publicize the fact that you are Mason) but please ask yourself the question.

Now, once you realize that your PM does not state that all of the Mason are pro-town, you may then apologize to me ^____^

Also, after re-reading this whole thing, I realized there is a chance of Foulcoon being the Mafia-Mason, and the others are both town. I find this unlikely (see my above posts), and it directly goes against my gut feeling.

Any time you're ready foulcoon, I'd like that apology bro. And take that fucking FoS off of me.

Rolled, out.

I would like to think that perhaps DxS was the mason, but when i replaced him I was given another role with the same alignment?

Also, my role PM doesn't say anything about masons at all.

I don't think the mason needs to deliberately claim non-mason? They just can't outright claim Mason.
Stop causing confusion to the town please. I doubt that you were given a different role with the same alignment.

Mod: Is it possible that you can shed some light on this? I understand you can't fully prove foulcoon to be lying or truthful, but can you perhaps show us what the Mason Townie's PM (Q's) looked like?