Let me analyze Two's post aloud, because it's a lot to take in and I want to be sure I didn't misinterpret everything.
Two wrote:
K so first of all I think we can all agree that it makes no sense for chris to have died night 1. He was like... the most easily lynchable target behind quaraezha. So obviously he used his bus driver ability on the person who would have been night killed, and that person was either me or rolled since he hates you all.
Fact: Unless there is another manipulative role (not likely), either Chris or his target were swapped. If Chris' target was swapped, Chris must have used his night action on himself, too (duh).
Assumption: Chris targeted either Two or Rolled. Two makes this assumption because "he hates you all", which sounds absurd but is probably true. Still, let's analyze a few scenarios:
Scenario A: Chris thinks [player] is Mafia; Chris feels he is going to be targeted for a kill; Chris swaps himself and [player].
If this occured, the Mafia targeted [player], meaning Chris' guess was (likely) incorrect.
Scenario B: Chris feels he is going to be targeted for a kill, and thinks it's best to have himself die over another player; Chris does not use his ability.
If this occured, the Mafia targeted Chris himself.
Scenario C: Chris thinks [player] is Town; Chris feels he is NOT going to be targeted for a kill; Chris thinks [player] is going to be targeted for a kill, and thinks it's best to have himself die over [player]; Chris swaps himself and [player].
If this occured, the Mafia targeted [player], meaning Chris' guess was (likely) correct.
(I have a feeling I am missing another scenario, but I can't think of it. If someone figures it out, or concludes there are no other scenarios, I'd be grateful.)
To me, Scenario C looks most likely. I don't think Chris thought he would be targeted for a kill, and I don't think he felt that way, either; as Two said, he is a pretty lynchable player. More likely, Chris thought one of the "better" players (Rolled, Two, or myself, not to brag) would be targeted. It's even more likely that Chris would swap himself with a player he had emotional attachment to, so that leaves Rolled and Two, as Two concluded for assumption purposes.
Two wrote:
So now we have to figure out who he swapped with. Here is who would night kill rolled:
Two
Ph0x
rust45
bmin11
Here is who would night kill me:
Rolled
Ph0x
rust45 (at the behest of ph0x or rolled)
bmin11 (at the behest of ph0x or rolled)
animask (at the behest of ph0x or rolled)
sry but none of you are that smart
What makes Two rule out animask for lynching Rolled? And what happened to foul?
I can take a guess to the former: animask was voting for Rolled day 1, and if animask had killed Rolled, animask wouldn't have a lead. Then again, that's WIFOM thinking, but I don't think Two thinks on those terms.
Anyway, what about foul? My guess? Freudian slip, and both Two and foul are mafia members. (If that's the case, note Scenario B above.)
Two wrote:
Since my list is effectively narrowed down to two people (they both aren't mafia)
Assumption: One or zero of Ph0X and Rolled mafia members.
Further assumption: Either Ph0X or Rolled is a mafia member.
I can see from where the first assumption comes, but I think the second assumption Two makes is a bit of a stretch. But sure, let's go with it.
Two wrote:
that's serious but let's focus on Rolled:
1. I always suspect him more than anyone else regardless of his role and he knows it
Meta assumption: Two is more critical of Rolled than he is of other players (in general).
Assumption: Rolled feels the critical pressure from Two.
Assumption: If Rolled is mafia, Rolled wants Two gone because Two could/would find Rolled out.
I think this line of thinking is solid, but it's based on a meta assumption, which to me is really weak.
Two wrote:
2. Voting in line with him yesterday could have made him think I was trying to make him not kill me (it was also semi out of character for me)(thinks I'm aux)
Assumption: Rolled feels Two is trying to be friendly with Rolled to not draw attention to himself, as to not be killed.
Assumption: Rolled sees this friendliness as Two not wanting to be killed.
Assumption: Rolled equates Two not wanting to be killed with Two holding an aux role (town or mafia).
Assumption: If Rolled is mafia, Rolled wants Two gone because Rolled thinks Two holds an aux townie role.
Pretty straight forward. I don't really agree with it, though I did notice Two kinda being under the covers next to Rolled day 1. (I didn't remember Two's meta enough to make any assumptions based off of this, though, despite what Two thinks.)
Two wrote:
3: Rolled wrote:
Two: I feel that Two is trusting me more in this game than in the past (lolmeta).
just because I didn't outright go against anything he said, trying to give everyone (including me) a false sense of comradery between the two of us
I don't know exactly what Two is thinking here, but here's my guess:
Assumption: Rolled feels Two is trying to buddy with Rolled.
Assumption: Rolled feels buddying with Two would be negative for himself.
Assumption: If Rolled is mafia, Rolled wants Two gone because the buddying paints a bad picture for himself, leading to a more likely lynch of himself.
I'm unsure what to think of this train of thought. At first glance it looks fine and reasonable. I just don't see Rolled thinking that way, though.
Two wrote:
4. I've just been playing in a way that isn't the same as the way I would have played a civilian a year ago (thinks I'm aux)
Meta assumption: Two is acting differently than he does when he was town in other games.
Assumption: Two holds an aux role.
Assumption: If Rolled is mafia, Rolled wants Two gone because Rolled thinks Two holds an aux townie role.
Seems reasonable, if you are lead to believe that meta assumption enough. I certainly don't. A lot can change in a year, or even game-to-game. I don't (or try not to) factor gameplay style into my reasoning, so I don't buy what Two is saying here.
Also, this argument could be used against
any player here (see below).
Two wrote:
1b. Rolled has gone for me in every game we've played together where he's been mafia/wolf, so why would he make a mistake like going after me? I used that as a reason to lynch him last time.
Meta fact: Rolled has (often?) gone after Two in the past where Rolled is mafia.
Meta assumption: Rolled always goes after Two if Rolled is mafia (and Two is not mafia).
Assumption: Rolled would not make the mistake of going after Two if Rolled is mafia.
WIFOM? Maybe that's what he wanted you to think, if he did try to kill you?
Two wrote:
now for Ph0x:
1. Also would notice that I've just been playing in a way that isn't the same as the way I would have played a civilian a year ago (thinks I'm aux)
Meta assumption: Ph0X knows Two's play style of a townie from a year ago.
Assumption: Ph0X sees the difference in Two's play style as a sign that Two holds an aux role.
Assumption: If Ph0X is mafia, Ph0X wants Two gone because Ph0X thinks Two holds an aux townie role.
Yeah, not buying it. Same reasoning against Rolled; see my comments there.
Two wrote:
2. I've straight up called him mafia more than once this game and voted for him (it's worth noting that this was early on in the game, so it wouldn't cast suspicion on him ordinarily)
Assumption: Ph0X felt pressured by Two by Two's vote against him on day 1.
Assumption: If Ph0X is mafia, Ph0X wants Two gone because Two might find Ph0X out.
Makes sense. WIFOM finds itself here quite easily, though, so the argument is nullified. (If you can't figure it out: what if, say, animask saw this an wanted to make the kill look like an OMGUS NK?)
Two wrote:
3. before the end of day 1:Ph0X wrote:
Two
This guy... He makes it so hard for me to read him. He comes up with good ideas, but doesn't really explain them (even though I understand the behind-the-scenes work of them for the most part). A real mystery player, because it's hard to read anything off of him because of this. I'm gonna ignore him for now...
I don't know how many of you can appreciate how telling this paragraph is. Basically, though, he was building distance between us and and trying to do the same thing rolled did in his quote (make me less apprehensive towards him). He did it close enough towards night, and with a lot more subtlety than rolled. So much so that the two statements don't even compare.
Assumption: Ph0X tried to distance himself from Two with above quote.
Assumption: If Ph0X is mafia, Ph0X wants Two gone because ... why? Because there is no association (that the town can see) between Two and Ph0X (in Ph0X's eyes)?
It's not really clear to me what Two is getting at here. I tried to make sense of the logic, but I can't see it. Can you reiterate what would lead to a lynch?
Two wrote:
What reasons do ph0x, rust45, and bmin11 have for night killing rolled?
Ph0x:
1. ph0x would have much more control of day phase
2. actually as I was writing this I realized that since he's spent so much time replying to rolled, it would hurt him to night kill rolled for two reasons: 1. all of that work going towards getting that material to use against him would be wasted, 2. it could have made Ph0x look more suspicious (in Ph0x's eyes)
rust45:
1. d'uhhhhhh rolled talks a lot
bmin11:
1. d'uhhhhhh rolled talks a lot (ilu still ㅇㅅㅇb)
I think Two's comments here are pretty clear, so I won't rehash them.
Two wrote:
It's pretty obvious to me that I was chosen to be night killed.
Assumption: The (incomplete) list of reasons for players nightkilling Rolled proves that nightkilling Rolled would not be sensical.
Assumption: Two is the only alternative to Rolled as a nightkill target (see above).
Yeah, pretty much, if you still want to stick to the "Rolled and I are the only NK targets" assumption (which, as I said, is convincing).
---
Now for responses to accusations on myself, and other comments:
Two wrote:
now for Ph0x:
1. Also would notice that I've just been playing in a way that isn't the same as the way I would have played a civilian a year ago (thinks I'm aux)
No, I don't remember you meta very well (as stated earlier). All I remember is that you and Rolled are very aggressive players. As I also said above, I don't take play style into account when it comes to meta comparisons.
Two wrote:
2. I've straight up called him mafia more than once this game and voted for him (it's worth noting that this was early on in the game, so it wouldn't cast suspicion on him ordinarily)
As I said, this is WIFOM.
Two wrote:
I don't know how many of you can appreciate how telling this paragraph is. Basically, though, he was building distance between us and and trying to do the same thing rolled did in his quote (make me less apprehensive towards him). He did it close enough towards night, and with a lot more subtlety than rolled. So much so that the two statements don't even compare.
I don't understand the reasoning behind this (as stated above); could you elaborate?
Rolled wrote:
Combine that with the fact that Ph0x has put in an effort to gather as much material from me as possible, and the fact that I have NKed Two as mafia n1 in the past, it is clear ph0x's intentions were NKing Two N1 and getting me lynched d2. While perhaps you can substitute ph0x's name with any other person in this game and the above paragraph would still make a little sense, however ph0x being mafia is the most likely scenario we have at hand here.
While reading this, I was gonna comment "well, the same can be said for other players, too", but you ended stated that yourself. But ... then you give a non-reason at the end, so I just see circular reasoning. If you don't see it:
Player A has lots of reason to kill player X. Although you could say the same about player B, player A seems more likely because player A has lots of reason to kill player X.
Maybe I am missing something in your argument?
---
My personal thoughts? I'm entertaining that Two-foul pair I mentioned. I mean, if Two was a newbie, I'd definitely pounce on it. Since he isn't, it's not gonna lead to a vote, just something which is gonna stick in my head for a while.
I don't really enjoy analyzing kills unless they're very surprising (and I wouldn't call a busdriver kill surprising, honestly). All I see is WIFOM in such analyses for the most part (though I do admit some good can come from looking at nightkills).
I will reread things when I have enough time (maybe tomorrow?). I've already spend enough time writing this essay. ;P
