kai99 wrote:

so, .. ... why do i not have a bingo yet?

kai99 wrote:

so, .. ... why do i not have a bingo yet?

Blitzfrog wrote:

Blitzmeth

Meah wrote:

fuck math, mental abuse to humans

Blitzfrog wrote:

Depending on what you're trying to calculate though. The multiplying by 12 is constant through out because there are only 12 ways you can win given any arrangement. But there are also the fact that there isn't only 12 ways to win with 19 tiles as the remaining 19-6 =13 tiles can be placed anywhere. That's why I multiplied the 12 with the fraction, not that you wouldn't know.

abraker wrote:

Blitzfrog wrote:

Blitzmeth

30 choose 13 is all possible arrangements given a win. Ok.

Still wrapping my head around the multiplication by 12. A potential error in my method is that my math is a solution for where there are 6 tiles in one constant position for any possible win cases.

The following made realize a definite mistake I let happen:

The 36 choose 19 is wrong. Well technically correct, but according to the rules, it's wrong. In no possible scenario are there 36 places where 19 tiles can be arranged in any position. It should be 36-6 choose 19 because there can be a max 30 unlocked tiles before a Bingo prohibits any more being unlocked (a case where there are no unlocked tiles in any diagonal).

Now that I think about it, it's a bit more complicated than that. You need to subtract 36 choose 19 by the number of scenarios prohibited due to a 2nd and 3rd six in a row.

abraker wrote:

And the division by 36 choose 19?

This one is impossible:

Blitzfrog wrote:

abraker wrote:

And the division by 36 choose 19?

This one is impossible:

Yep you're right it is

But that is not in what I was calculating. What I was calculating was the chance for the 19TH call to be the bingo. Which means to find out the cumulative chance you need to find the probability of winning at the 6th call, 7th call... to 19th call and add(not multiply) them all together.


Now why the cumulative chance is because the quote states that he is impressed by the fact that Kai doesn't have a BINGO, which means the bingo could have happened anytime prior to 19 if you interpret it that way

abraker wrote:

Ah I see now. I was aiming for calculating if there was a bingo already, not that the next tile would be one.

abraker wrote:

updated


kai is so close to winning I'd start placing bets on when it's gonna happen

Blitzfrog wrote:

Which is what I called the cumulative probability. I didn't calculate it but I wrote the way to calculate it on a piece of paper and posted it here, somewhere above. It's for 22 though.

I think you just missed out on some variable with your equation that's all. Never the less my first attempt wasn't even close LOL

Blitzfrog wrote:

Abraker is a dick that's why

Blitzfrog wrote:

Why join abraker's club when I have my own 0 member club?

give me the privileges

Blitzfrog wrote:

Wow I have way more winning opportunities than you

actually I have 0

kai99 wrote:

Blitzfrog wrote:

Wow I have way more winning opportunities than you

actually I have 0

in theory you won

theoretically.

and wait till someone else gets bingo before i do lmao
intense

Blitzfrog wrote:

If someone gets a bingo before you
I will name you the official nano dick
Cus that's what happens when you rek a micro to pieces

levesterz wrote:

I have unlock that final tile before you bingo.

Endaris wrote:

This game makes no sense anyway, there are no tiles for posting after Meah, Kisses, Railey or Tae when there are 16 "post after" tiles.

Meah wrote:

Oyyyy, I stumbled a movie on youtube. SAO Movie: Ordinal Scale w/ Eng subs. Cam rip tho.

Blitzfrog wrote:

I call B.S abraker

Idk how to get the next point

Can you give hints?

abraker wrote:

Go die

johnmedina999 wrote:

abraker wrote:

Go die

It's confirmed! The next tile is to create a new "OT Execution" thread!

levesterz wrote:

oh boi here we go again XD