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Newbie Game 15: Rise From The Ashes [Game over!]

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Frostings
Also I briefly skimmed over the posts again
When I townread abraker over his tryhard diagrams, in retrospect it could actually be an easy way to convince others to vote the wrong people if town is dumb like me :)
Sakura

Frostings wrote:

Also I briefly skimmed over the posts again
When I townread abraker over his tryhard diagrams, in retrospect it could actually be an easy way to convince others to vote the wrong people if town is dumb like me :)
I believe i've said several times that Effort =/= Town
B1rd
I haven't played a whole lot with Jess, so I can't really comment on her meta play, but I'd say there's a fair chance she's scum. And at the end of the day, I'd rather mislynch Jess than leave her alive and mislynch another townie. I'd be on board with lynching beeboy instead if other people with more experience have good townreads on Jess, but I can't really see that happening at this point.

Sakura wrote:

I did something like that back on Sunday.
But all people said is that her "townslip" made it impossible for her to be scum.
At the top of that post also showed a potential "scumslip" in the form of CCing as Mafia Goon.

I'm not 100% sure on her being scum, if anything it's more like... 50-60%, what i do know is that players always do something for a reason, whether the reason is subconcious or concious could heavily lead to alignment relevant information, which is why i still wonder "why did she CC as VT, when there wasn't a VT on either of the row or the column".
The same could be said about her constant rejecting of PRs using their abilities on her, and her false meta call that was later invalidated anyway before anyone investigated it in depth.
I'll admit I haven't followed your analysis 100%, but from my point of view it just seems like it'd be unlikely for scum to do such a thing and cause a scene like Hika did. Scum tend to be more cautious and think out their moves, so I think it's unlikely that they'd do something like that.
Hika
She's probably not scum but I'm comfortable with a lynch on Jess.
Just the safest lynch on the table because it does eliminate some of the late game WIFOM possibilities if she's left here.
rEdo

Sakura wrote:

What do you think of my theory that she saw Mafia Goon on the vertical line and thought it'd counterclaim you? Makes more sense to me since there's no VT on either line.
I can't really see it happening. I believe she just thought that she's the vanilla townie and that it counter-claims me. A flaw in logic.

abraker wrote:

rEdo wrote:

You have never explained why your vote on Dawnsday stayed on him, though
I just did?

abraker wrote:

I just chose my vote at random on day 1 based on judgement on an avatar and remained on Dawn because his stupidity mislead everyone including me to vote for him.
Or are you referring to me saying anything back then and not now?
That's not good enough of a reason for me. You haven't stayed why he's stupid, you just went along with everything people said beforehand.

beeboy123 wrote:

Ok so as scum Hika would basically have no reason to commit to a counter claim on your bullet proof.
It isn't like you are a full bullet proof or a cop with a doctor still alive (literally anything that would be worth dying to get lynched) scum could literally just kill you N2 if you are a bullet proof and there is nothing anyone could do about it so I just made the assumption that Hika was the town in the situation in addition to the fact she sort of sorted some kind of PR.

Was I correct, no but to say I didn't question it when in my mind there was literally nothing to question is kinda silly.
Yes, I know. My point here was that you knew Hika's doing a townie move and that I got hit tonight, and you knew I survived because of my PR. So hey, since you know I'm conftown, let's use that counterclaim thing to actually start a wagon on me not only to get me lynched, but perhaps Hika on the following day as well.

beeboy123 wrote:

I would argue my reads are more then just factual analysis but meh.
Well, since you know who's town and scum. If you were a vanilla townie, could you get any other source for your reads than factual analysis?

beeboy123 wrote:

vote: jess
anyway I said I would do this so ima do this.
Play-safe card. Nice. If Jess gets lynched today and flips town, you're literally confscum to me.

---

Unfortunately I have to agree with Sakura on the fact that Jess' alignment is something we literally can't solve in any other way than lynching her. Even though like literally 3 people (myself included) she's about to flip town.
rEdo

rEdo wrote:

Unfortunately I have to agree with Sakura on the fact that Jess' alignment is something we literally can't solve in any other way than lynching her. Even though like literally 3 people (myself included) said she's about to flip town.
Sakura
What im interested in is knowing what makes you say she's gonna flip town.
Sakura
Because time is running low
Hika
I have a feeling she's just playing regular jess?
Either way if she flips scum or town, you can't really link her to anyone else lol

her scumbuddy probably won't even defend her
Sakura
Also im gonna drop my pursuit of Hika in favor of cohesion, i did notice some differences in her play in Lovers mafia, i just dont understand why people think she townslipped, but since a lot of my townreads (Frosty, B1rd, rEdo) seem to think so i'll let it go as im starting to feel like im beating a dead horse here. But if she does turn up being scum, expect a word of "I told you so!" from me at endgame.

This puts me in here:

Town:
rEdo
B1rd ^
Frostings ^

Leaning Town:
beeboy V
Hika ^

Leftovers:
abraker
Jess

(the arrows just indicate changes across my reads from their last position)
If Jess is town then im going wrong somewhere.
rEdo

Sakura wrote:

What im interested in is knowing what makes you say she's gonna flip town.
That self-vote thing triggered me to thinking she's frustrated that we scumread her so she self-voted.
Sakura

rEdo wrote:

Sakura wrote:

What im interested in is knowing what makes you say she's gonna flip town.
That self-vote thing triggered me to thinking she's frustrated that we scumread her so she self-voted.
Do you have reasons to believe she wouldnt do this as scum?
rEdo

Sakura wrote:

Do you have reasons to believe she wouldnt do this as scum?
I don't want to be mean, but to be honest I don't believe she's intelligent enough to pull that off xd
Sakura
She's basically done 3 pro-scum actions:
1) Hammering a player without letting them claim.
2) Self-voting which muddles VCA and if town, she's literally voting the only player that is conftown to her (herself)
3) Not contributing anything overall.

Sure, 2 could have been caused by frustration, but it's Jess we're talking about.
Sakura
I mean as far as i recall, she's done the self voting thing before, why wouldnt it become a scum tactic.

Now let's assume for the sake of argument that you're right and she's town.
What happens then if we mislynch today, even if scum dont pull a lynch on her at XyLo, im worried she'll vote wrong, i mean, she already did it D1 ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
B1rd
While we do have time, why do you two have a town read on Frostings? I had a scum read on him before, and I haven't analysed frosty's recent posts, but him being scum is still a possibility IMO.
Hika
Dude frosty scum is soooo possible.
Sakura

B1rd wrote:

While we do have time, why do you two have a town read on Frostings? I had a scum read on him before, and I haven't analysed frosty's recent posts, but him being scum is still a possibility IMO.
Everything is always a possibility, I just think the chances are very unlikely. And my read on him comes entirely from Experience, specially coz i've been in his crosshairs several times in the past on games.
Hika
Also, it's just jess, Sakura. If she turns out town, whoops.
If not then okay; we will just figure something out.
Sakura
Literally the only reason for people to say she's town is

"OMG SHE SELF VOTED SHE'S SO TOTES FRUSTRATED AND TOWN"

I know the deal trust me, it's a strategy i used to use too, and no it shouldn't be encouraged.
abraker

Sakura wrote:

B1rd wrote:

While we do have time, why do you two have a town read on Frostings? I had a scum read on him before, and I haven't analysed frosty's recent posts, but him being scum is still a possibility IMO.
Everything is always a possibility, I just think the chances are very unlikely. And my read on him comes entirely from Experience, specially coz i've been in his crosshairs several times in the past on games.
Your defence of him including experience is starting to be a weak arguements for me. More the reason a fellow scum is protecting scum. Like you seem too defensive of him.
abraker
If Jess flips town, you are and Frosty will be in my watch list
Sakura

abraker wrote:

If Jess flips town, you are and Frosty will be in my watch list
We've been on your watch list for a while. What's new?
abraker
To be clear, it's as if the subtle mentioning of "Frosty might be scum" sets off a "I know he's not from experience" trigger
abraker
It's starting to wet off red flags for me
abraker
*set
Sakura
I mean i have a hard time explaining my townread on Frosty
Just like people have a hard time explaining why they think Jess will flip town from the self vote despite it being null at best.

Havent you ever heard about gut?
abraker
I play gut only on first day when there is nothing to go by. I will need find something that doesn't exist if you want me to play by "gut".
Failure to explain something leads to suspicion
Sakura

abraker wrote:

To be clear, it's as if the subtle mentioning of "Frosty might be scum" sets off a "I know he's not from experience" trigger
A subtle mentioning?
Is this subtle to you?:

B1rd wrote:

While we do have time, why do you two have a town read on Frostings? I had a scum read on him before, and I haven't analysed frosty's recent posts, but him being scum is still a possibility IMO.
B1rd
Sure, but you're not going to impress anyone else with contradicting reads with your only reasoning being your "gut feeling".

Sakura wrote:

Literally the only reason for people to say she's town is

"OMG SHE SELF VOTED SHE'S SO TOTES FRUSTRATED AND TOWN"

I know the deal trust me, it's a strategy i used to use too, and no it shouldn't be encouraged.
Lol. I read that in the thread you linked and I was thinking of quoting it myself.
abraker
"Subtle"

I will admit, you can now see how I can easily dismiss things as something lesser and prioritize things that are that align with the pile of coincidences I have found. To be clear though coincidence =/= fact, but it is my digging grounds for facts
Sakura
My gut comes from direct play experience with Frosty, i can try and explain it but im not very good at explaining feelings.
Sakura

abraker wrote:

"Subtle"

I will admit, you can now see how I can easily dismiss things as something lesser and prioritize things that are that align with the pile of coincidences I have found. To be clear though coincidence =/= fact, but it is my digging grounds for facts
You're saying i went and said that he's town from experience at the lightest subtle suspicion.
But that's not true, I was asked a direct question.
Hika
Well I think frostings is actually scum from experience.

He's not pulling his "I know I'm town" strings like he usually does.
abraker

Sakura wrote:

abraker wrote:

"Subtle"

I will admit, you can now see how I can easily dismiss things as something lesser and prioritize things that are that align with the pile of coincidences I have found. To be clear though coincidence =/= fact, but it is my digging grounds for facts
You're saying i went and said that he's town from experience at the lightest subtle suspicion.
But that's not true, I was asked a direct question.
My theory right now is Frosty+Sakura scum. My agenda right now is to find any coincidences that align with that theory and hopefully stumble upon a fact that may prove or disprove this theory.
Sakura
Not exactly, Frosty hates playing as scum.
At game start the way he went after you and Dawn reminds me a lot of how he went after me in Madoka, and idk, i feel like he'd be like more lost and confused instead of straightforward if he was scum.
abraker
I can buy lost and confused but you can act list and confused as scum as well.
As I said before I strictly ignore the "x wouldn't act like y" claims. Those are nothing to me unless you prove why "x would or would not act like y"
Sakura
For starters he was the first one to mention you could be faking your confusion and then he also was the first one to mention you had townslipped instead, i find it hard to see him doing either of those 2 things as scum.
abraker
Ahhh

Sakura please quote.
abraker
idk who you are talking to
Frostings

Sakura wrote:

idk, i feel like he'd be like more lost and confused instead of straightforward if he was scum.
Hey now... Usually I have a pretty good idea what's going on :)
At least I like to think that
Sakura
I was talking to Hika but here are the relevant quotes:

Frostings wrote:

Hello :oops:

I don't know if I'm reading this correctly, but it seems like abraker and B1rd are suspicious of me because they think I have some secret motive or psychology with my votes and reads, but I can't even understand your explanations for my actions let alone come up with them :)

Hika reminds me of Irre in I think the Tree house game where he acted like he had no idea what was going on. I don't really believe her when she says the setup is confusing, and since Dawn flipped town I think she's still pretty suspicious. The VT claim doesn't help at all.. It looks like she's trying to rack up town points by claiming early, when we already know everybody who's town is VT after rEdo's claim

Jess.. uhhh in the back of my mind I had a feeling she would lynch early. I should have unvoted to get a claim at least but she hammered earlier than I expected. Her action isn't really a tell, but I would be content with a PL to save us headache later

As for the others, I'll have to read the posts again, I just had a quick skim over all the posts

Frostings wrote:

So... Hika thought there was only one VT in the game? Even after Tracker got flipped?

... It's actually a pretty convincing townslip, how can you even make this up as scum
Long story short i have a hard time seeing Frosty pulling this off as scum.
Same with his push on Dawnsday D1.
Hika
He's still being a little confusing though. His post seem ambiguous and the way he's playing has to be alignment indicative.
Sakura
I mean saying something like "I'm town" is way more fakeable than the way he approaches the game.
Sakura
How can you even be using that as a meta tell.
Hika
It's just a usual indicator for me that Frostings is town if:
1. Straightforward and doesn't change mindset, regardless of whole town perspective.
2. Always says "but I'm VT, but I'm VT" when he's town.

Number 1 always being the biggest indicator.
Sakura
Frosty also just prevented Hika lynch after being on about her being scum since D1. What kind of scum does that (unless Hika's scum)
Hika
He could be scum keeping me alive for WIFOM.
Sakura
He also jumped in to defend Hika after my Wall post:

Frostings wrote:

I actually don't think Hika could make this up as scum
it doesn't really make sense to claim VT as scum on Day 1 and then push that onto Day 2 to try to "CC" a claimed BP in an open setup, especially after the Tracker flip

It's a pretty believable townslip, I'd be really really surprised if Hika flipped scum
If anything im more surprised Hika's scumreading him after this than if anyone else is.
Hika
But I already stated that earlier on, I think.
That's why I claimed myself the first time around and made sure I did so scum wouldn't use me for that purpose.
Sakura

Hika wrote:

He could be scum keeping me alive for WIFOM.
Is this really all you got to say about it?
Hika
I don't care if he defended me. Someone defending me does not make them automatically town in my eyes. their play is more important to me than me securing a townread in everyone else's reads.
Hika

Sakura wrote:

Hika wrote:

He could be scum keeping me alive for WIFOM.
Is this really all you got to say about it?
No, because you could be doing the same thing too.
I won't know until D3, if I'm alive or not lol
Sakura

Hika wrote:

I don't care if he defended me. Someone defending me does not make them automatically town in my eyes. their play is more important to me than me securing a townread in everyone else's reads.
So basically you're implying that
Scum Frosty decided to ignore an open road to a mislynch that would make a towny look bad, in favor of WIFOM?
I really have a hard time believing that and it feels more like you're trying to scramble for reasons to lynch him, but hey, apparently your supposed townslip means i shouldn't pursue you anymore right? ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
I'm not even gonna be mad if i lose when you're scum at this point.
Hika
Are you referring to him pushing a D1 lynch or D2 lynch?
Sakura
D2
Hika
Hold on, I'll reply to you after I reread his ISO because I'm not sure what you mean.
Hika
+ I've been at the doctor for an hour and finally got a room wtf yay
Sakura
The momment you posted this:

Hika wrote:

He could be scum keeping me alive for WIFOM.
You already revealed your true motives.
This post signifies 2 things
Either you're scum that is trying to scramble for reasons to scumread Frosty.
Or you're town so deep in confbias that you cant think of anything else of why he would be scum, but just WANT him to be scum.
Hika
I think you might be looking too hard into it, actually
Hika
Because afaik, you just said on the last page that Frosty is town because GUT FEELING.
Sakura
Yeah and i explained where that gut feeling came from.
Sakura
Too bad your little mislynch vanished into thin air huh
Sakura

Unvote
Vote: Hika

Literally dont care why everyone thinks she townslipped at this point.
She just went from looking for any reason to scumread Frosty to trying to discredit me.
This is scum.
rEdo
Wow, that's bold. Sakura, she's been doing that to pretty much everyone who's been suspicious of her at slightest, as far as I have seen, ourselves included. Do you imply this is a bold scum move?
rEdo
You know what, I'll sheep Sakura on this.

Unvote
Vote: Hika
Hika
Eh, I'm not gonna question it because I'm town.
She was my scum read anyway lel
rEdo
Am I your scumread too?
Hika
No you're not
Hika
You're my conf townread
rEdo

Hika wrote:

bboy + frosty
or bboy + Jess

are my corrected scumteam reads.

Hika wrote:

Eh, I'm not gonna question it because I'm town.
She was my scum read anyway lel
?????????????????????????????
rEdo
Hika, who's scum?
Hika
bboy frosty Sakura
rEdo
Why abraker isn't included on this list? Why do you want to lynch Jess?
Hika
Sakura because she tried to defend frosty not being scum.
Bboy because I have no idea wtf he's on about.
Frosty because he's flopping his reads too much. This can be applied to Sakura too.
Hika
abraker not on my list because he interrogated me D1 and I believe he doing his best to scumhunt.
Jess I'm willing to lynch bc she is anti town.
rEdo
I'll let myself use the red color to respond to this.

Hika wrote:

Sakura because she tried to defend frosty not being scum. Is that really a scumtell that you don't agree with somebody?
Bboy because I have no idea wtf he's on about.
Frosty because he's flopping his reads too much. This can be applied to Sakura too. How is he flopping? Provide examples.

Hika wrote:

abraker not on my list because he interrogated me D1 and I believe he doing his best to scumhunt. You seem to be agreeing with him on the Frostings scumread. You see, you said you believe he's doing his best. Shouldn't the same logic apply for Sakura's townread on Frosty?
Jess I'm willing to lynch bc she is anti town. Why would you lynch anti-town on top of scum?
rEdo

rEdo wrote:

I'll let myself use the red color to respond to this.

Hika wrote:

Sakura because she tried to defend frosty not being scum. Is that really a scumtell that you don't agree with somebody?
Bboy because I have no idea wtf he's on about. Fine.
Frosty because he's flopping his reads too much. This can be applied to Sakura too. How is he flopping? Provide examples.

Hika wrote:

abraker not on my list because he interrogated me D1 and I believe he doing his best to scumhunt. You seem to be agreeing with him on the Frostings scumread. You see, you said you believe he's doing his best. Shouldn't the same logic apply for Sakura's townread on Frosty?
Jess I'm willing to lynch bc she is anti town. Why would you lynch anti-town on top of scum?
Formatting.
Hika
I will gladly respond to this when I get on a computer, as quoting requires too much effort.
rEdo
You're on a bus home? It's almost midnight here in Poland, and I've got classes at 12 AM. I guess I ain't responding to that overnight then.

Nobody hammers that shit before I wake up. I double dare you.

Good night.
rEdo
I would like you to give us a strong case on Sakura, too. I know it's asking for much, but I just want to know your POV as much as possible.
Hika
I can do that.
Hika
Also yes, I'm taking the train home at the moment so a reply in the next 2 hours is highly unlikely. A reply to a post that requires me to quote however.
B1rd
Welp, seems it's gonna be a long day. I guess I'm gonna have to do a fair bit of reading to reevaluate my read on Hika.

rEdo wrote:

Nobody hammers that shit before I wake up. I double dare you.
I can just imagine, we get to L-1, Jess hammers, then we lynch Jess but it turns out she's town and we lose the game :lol:
Hika
And that's why I didn't vote because she might hammer herself :p
Hika

rEdo wrote:

I'll let myself use the red color to respond to this.

Hika wrote:

Sakura because she tried to defend frosty not being scum. Is that really a scumtell that you don't agree with somebody?
Bboy because I have no idea wtf he's on about. Fine.
Frosty because he's flopping his reads too much. This can be applied to Sakura too. How is he flopping? Provide examples.

Hika wrote:

abraker not on my list because he interrogated me D1 and I believe he doing his best to scumhunt. You seem to be agreeing with him on the Frostings scumread. You see, you said you believe he's doing his best. Shouldn't the same logic apply for Sakura's townread on Frosty?
Jess I'm willing to lynch bc she is anti town. Why would you lynch anti-town on top of scum?
1. It's not exactly a scum tell, but she's saying that I'm pulling the reasons why I'm reading him are incorrect. I'm not saying "oh because she doesn't agree with me, she's scum" but it's more so how hard she's trying to discredit me that makes me seem like she's his scum buddy or I'm probably just looking into it too ez. If she was scum then maybe she wouldn't out herself so much, but I personally think it's unusual because I don't recall a time that she's done this ever. And if she has done it, forgive me but why should it be THAT bad that I'm scum reading her? It's not like I'm asking everyone to vote her because she's scummy.

2. I personally think Frostings was flopping bc he was really intent on getting me lynched it looked like, D1. Then all of a sudden he comes to say I've "townslipped" and everyone hops aboard on that claim. I know I'm town of course but the fact that he did that caught me off guard because his usual town play would be to hunt me down all game. I could be wrong, ofc and thinking too hard into that too but that's my thought process on that. Now that I think about it, I probably dont have too much of a clear reason to be scumreading him due to the fact I feel as if I need to gather my reads more.

3. If Sakura wants to townread Frosty, be my guest. I'm not mad about it, it's just the fact she defended him so much that made me want to vote her.

4. Isn't Jess like L-1, L-2 or some shit? No one is gonna follow me if I'm like "hey let's vote bboy guys!!"
Sakura
Oh look the OMGUS read that i predicted like 20 pages ago.
Hika
But there were reasons that led up to it, still think I'd rather vote Jess out tho!!!!
Sakura
you generated an initial scumread on me when i made the case on you and was scumreading you, when i started thinking you prolly werent scum after rereading lovers mafia you changed back to not scumreading me, and now that im literally voting you, you're scumreading me again
¯\_(ツ)_/¯
And you'd rather lynch Jess over any of your 3 "scumreads"
¯\_(ツ)_/¯
Hika
nice emote

I'm pretty sure we all came to a consensus that we were voting Jess out?!
Otherwise if we're doing it that way, my voting would be bboy > frosty > you.

So calm down, you're still not my first choice
Hika
You did make valid points here and there too. So you wouldn't even be a good lynch for me IMO.
I would only scum read you because you're trying to invalidate my scumread on frosty.
And you're protecting him but I guess scum wouldn't publicly do that...
Sakura
I didnt know town wasnt allowed to townread a person someone else was scumreading!
¯\_(ツ)_/¯
I was asked for my reasons to townread Frosty and i explained them to the best of my ability
You on the other hand proceeded to discredit every single one of them by saying:

Hika wrote:

He could be scum keeping me alive for WIFOM.

Hika wrote:

Because afaik, you just said on the last page that Frosty is town because GUT FEELING.
Sakura
Following your logic i should be scumreading every person that tried to defend you when i initially scumread you
¯\_(ツ)_/¯
Hika
Also I didn't realize that I couldn't scumread someone who was protecting one of my scumreads!!!!

What do you not get about the WIFOM thing!!! If I am not lynched nor NK'd, people will think I am scum! Do you not understand the context of WIFOM here? Same thing applies to Jess! If she isn't lynched, she will try to cover her ass and make excuses for the D1 hammer and if it keeps going, scum can use her as a shield!
Sakura

Sakura wrote:

Following your logic i should be scumreading every person that tried to defend you when i initially scumread you
¯\_(ツ)_/¯
Hika
also the first line is sarcasm the second paragraph is what I really think
Hika
No bc no one is doing the same thing you are doing....
Sakura

Hika wrote:

What do you not get about the WIFOM thing!!! If I am not lynched nor NK'd, people will think I am scum!
This is a good one, why would you be NK'd over rEdo?
Hika
Also yes, feel free to vote me. I am completely fine with that, however, we aren't going to do the same thing in terms of reads. We won't have the same reads either, so I don't see why what I've said confused you.
Sakura

Hika wrote:

No bc no one is doing the same thing you are doing....
They did, to the point of making me drop it, are you even reading the game?
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