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Newbie Game 15: Rise From The Ashes [Game over!]

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Frostings
I voted Dawnsday because his posts up to my vote on him were all commentary with little analysis and initiative to find scum
also he keep using the "new to the game" card but I don't believe him :oops:
Hika

B1rd wrote:

rEdo's criticisms seem accurate, I didn't get any scumreads from him at the start, but his latest posts seem really scummy. He gets a few votes on him, and then he's freaking out, claiming scum is bandwagoning him etc. He doesn't seem to be helping town, and it seems like he's townreading beeboy simply because beeboy was defending him. So, either he's scum, or he's just playing a really bad townie. Even if it's the latter, you can't just ignore scumreads because someone was playing bad.
So, my vote's on Dawnsday, though I don't think there's any point in quick-lynching at the moment. Besides that, I'm annoyed at abraker and jess for not posting much. I'd rather lynch deadweight on policy before going after scumreads.

Anyway, despite what Sakura says, I find Frosting's play unusual. It seems completely irrational to follow a vote from the first post, and then he switched it to Dawn for no apparent reason. Really that just feels like vote-parking and laying low. I'm getting a townread from rEdo, seems he's been pretty aggressive in rooting out scum. Pretty much null from other people.


Pretty sure I was voting beeboy still, but it wasn't a serious vote so it doesn't matter. unvote
/looks for my name in this post
Dawns
I went with the option that had most favorable town outcomes (and even kindly drew up how :p ) I'm concerned that this may be beyond my 00:30 AM reasoning. I ruined my own chances at self defence with my god awful early argumentation and such, I feel like to an experienced player it should be very obvious I am new.

Closest thing I've played to Mafia is Town of Salem (which I have only JUST got back into because of my performance in this game.), Not sure why there is a claim from Frostings that I am potentially faking the "new" card
Dawns
So Frostings, would you be willing to elaborate on why you think I am actually not new? I'd be sure as hell interested to see why.
Sakura
Maybe he's just avoiding outing any more connections at this point u.u
All he keeps talking about is "The outcome if im lynched" instead of scumhunting or elaborating on his Hika scumread.
I would want to hear more from Jess but im 100% sure i cant read her even if she posted more.
I want to hear more from abraker tho.
B1rd looks town.
abraker

Sakura wrote:

I want to hear more from abraker tho.

B1rd wrote:

I'm annoyed at abraker and jess for not posting much.
Sorry, was busy for majority of the day. I am currently catching up to everything and compiling a summary of this for easu analysis, I will be able to give thoughts on this in an about hour.
abraker

Dawnsday wrote:

So Frostings, would you be willing to elaborate on why you think I am actually not new? I'd be sure as hell interested to see why.
Oh idk. Maybe this

Dawnsday wrote:

Meh it's my first maf game what're ya gonna hold me to, I'm a tad nervy I get that's indicative but this is by no means the be all and end all (as is proven by my Role PM). I sheeped mostly for vote pressure, I'm not gonna bother unvoting (even tho I've considered) till I have someone else in mind, also if I unvoted now it just looks like im panicking to remove heat which just makes my case even worse.
abraker
Damn now I wish I can delete that seeing with how badly my brain glitched right now. Let me fix that post with this:

You claim that you are new to the mafia game, but you demonstrate knowledge of how the game works in this post:

Dawnsday wrote:

Also since I'm L-2 I'm guessing potentially 1 scum has a vote on me already since I could just be hammered and then have scum either feign ignorance to L-# or just agree with the already stupidly high sus. Woo, go town.
Can somebody explain the L-2 stuff to me, because even after reading the first 3 posts, still have no idea what mechanics that entails. You seem to know. Therefore you know more about mafia than me and a played a few mafia games before on the Tuuba forums. B1rd can vouch for me. Though there was no L-# stuff there, this does shows you kinda know what's up

Dawnsday wrote:

Beeboy protected me in the face of Sakura calling my going along with the Mason thing sus, this is would be an incredibly weird move for maf as the early confusion makes a nice snowballing target for accusations, instead he opted to bring up meta about the facts from his previous mason falseclaims and made my own arguments for me which is obviously anti beneficial since the confusion which could lead to a mislynch (since this is my first recorded game on the osuforums), it'd simply be easier for him to leave it to me and hope I make a flawed newby argument and get myself voted up a bunch.
Here you demonstrate that you know the implications of early alignment in the game. You also admit that this is not your first game.

Dawnsday wrote:

Closest thing I've played to Mafia is Town of Salem (which I have only JUST got back into because of my performance in this game.), Not sure why there is a claim from Frostings that I am potentially faking the "new" card
Idk how that is different. I mean idk how that game works either, but judging by the previous 2, I take it not too different.

So how are you new to the game?
abraker
Also what was the mason joke you ran with in the beginning? Why run with the joke if you are new? I wouldn't even know why or how a new player would know what a mason is to think running with it.
abraker
Sakura, if you are not joining the bandwagon, please defend Dawnsday.
abraker
Just so everybody know I am requesting Sakura to defend Dawnsday because they are the only 2 with an open townread. Even if it was an early baseless read, at least then I can update the status if changed.

Sakura

abraker wrote:

Sakura, if you are not joining the bandwagon, please defend Dawnsday.
First of all, a vote from me would equal to a lynch.
Second of all, i want to get more reads before deciding where to vote.

On another note to respond to your earlier question L-X means Lynch minus X which means that X more votes are required to lynch the player.
abraker

Sakura wrote:

First of all, a vote from me would equal to a lynch.
No need to vote. Simply declaring a scumread would suffice
abraker
-[Jess]-, why is Beeboy123 a townie?
Sakura
Btw i like the data you're piling up, it'll be useful, but it's useless if you don't know how to use it.
Also my initial Dawn read was a reaction test, which was piled together with frosty and bee, after i got nothing from the reaction test the only ones i remained with a townread on were bee and frosty.
These posts make a reference to that:

Sakura wrote:

My 3 straight up townreads in general were pretty much rxn testing but most people ignored it, and i already solidified a townread on you due to something else so ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Sakura wrote:

Hika's not off the wagon :V

Also #NoResistanceToWagon #WagonTooQuick #TotesTown

No really, that's some of the things anti hates, scum does bus you know. IF he's town tho, there's at least 1 scum on his wagon, but i dont see the need for pre-wagon analysis right now ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
He's not a townread and there's 2 townreads voting him.

Also you're asking him why is Hika scum when you're voting Hika.

abraker wrote:

Sakura wrote:

First of all, a vote from me would equal to a lynch.
No need to vote. Simply declaring a scumread would suffice
He's not a scumread either ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
I simply have a hard time reading new players which is why im heavily interrogating and trying to figure out his motives.
Sakura
You also seem to have missed my B1rd townread :V
abraker

Sakura wrote:

You also seem to have missed my B1rd townread :V
I did. Which post?
Sakura

Sakura wrote:

Maybe he's just avoiding outing any more connections at this point u.u
All he keeps talking about is "The outcome if im lynched" instead of scumhunting or elaborating on his Hika scumread.
I would want to hear more from Jess but im 100% sure i cant read her even if she posted more.
I want to hear more from abraker tho.
B1rd looks town.
Hika
I don't recall saying bboy was town?
If I did, forgive me, I just don't recall saying that @ab
B1rd
I can vouch that indeed abraker is a master of graphs and flowcharts. @Sakura, I'm interested to know why you don't have a scumread on Dawnsday, because so far there's been a lot of red flags, at least in my opinion.

Frostings wrote:

I voted Dawnsday because his posts up to my vote on him were all commentary with little analysis and initiative to find scum
also he keep using the "new to the game" card but I don't believe him :oops:
Fair enough.
Sakura
Oh also @abraker, I like your analysis but i'd also like to know your conclusions and stances.
@B1rd: There's a lot of false positives that tend to occur, I'm tired of mislynches happening due to them, you probably havent noticed since most of my playstyle change due to it happened with my Alt in MS, but nowadays i dont really do much of a scumhunt as opposed to a townhunt, and while there's still potential people that could be scum i tend to not pursue something hard.
I mean my last game on there i did that to bee for like half the game and then he flipped town and i got demotivated and got hit by Apathy.
B1rd
There's always the chance of mislynches, but at the end of the day, you have to press on against the most likely person. What you say is plausible, but frankly, you're still just giving yourself license to hang back and stay out of the line-of-fire while being everyone's friend with town reads. In my experience, being neutral and not trying to seek out scum, especially on D1, isn't townie behaviour.

@rEdo, you mentioned that Sakura is playing different from usual, could you elaborate on this?
abraker
[img]Oh%20also%20@abraker,%20I%20like%20your%20analysis%20but%20i'd%20also%20like%20to%20know%20your%20conclusions%20and%20stances.[/img]I listed all events in readable form but now need to put it in a mathematical context so I can deduce things. Sneak peak at the event list I am making. Might delay my conclusions tomorrow since it's getting late. But might get around posting it today.

So far I quickly glanced at the obvious data and concluded some inconsistencies and/or anomalies with you and with Beeboy123. As I result, I threw two posts out to get answers. That's all I have so far.
abraker
jfc why did that come out like that
abraker
Oh I did img instead of quote
Hika

B1rd wrote:

There's always the chance of mislynches, but at the end of the day, you have to press on against the most likely person. What you say is plausible, but frankly, you're still just giving yourself license to hang back and stay out of the line-of-fire while being everyone's friend with town reads. In my experience, being neutral and not trying to seek out scum, especially on D1, isn't townie behaviour.

@rEdo, you mentioned that Sakura is playing different from usual, could you elaborate on this?
she is totally playing different imo
it's not like it's too bad but she's acting paranoid tbh.
Frostings
Frostings
town
abraker

nulltown
b1rd
REdo
sakura

suspicious
hika
dawnsday

null
jess
beeboy

Here are my reads
Hika is suspicious if Dawnsday flips town, because I've seen her pull L-1 at the first opportunity multiple times as scum :oops:

I like Sakura so far. I put abraker as town because literally no scum cares enough about looking town to create a bunch of random flowcharts in their own time
abraker

Frostings wrote:

I like Sakura so far. I put abraker as town because literally no scum cares enough about looking town to create a bunch of random flowcharts in their own time
B1rd would disagree
Hika
nah if I was scum I wouldn't have voted

keep it in mind
abraker

Hika wrote:

nah if I was scum I wouldn't have voted

keep it in mind
Pending proof from previous mafia games
Sakura

Frostings wrote:

-Snip-
I put abraker as town because literally no scum cares enough about looking town to create a bunch of random flowcharts in their own time
Eh i dunno, i've seen scum do a lot of work to look town, Prolly not a newbie, but I'll reserve my judgement for when i see what conclusions he gets from the data.
Hika
You can wait until I bother getting on a computer. @ab
Sakura
Granted i've never seen scum focus so much effort towards looking town on osu! #SiteMeta ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
But so far all abraker has is IIoA until he does something with it
Hika
Also frostings I'm disappointed you're seriously using trivial reasons for someone being town.
B1rd
He always makes flowcharts. Don't let your guard down against abraker, he's pretty deadly in that he has the same sort of robot-like methodology whether he's town or scum.

But abraker, I would like it if you could redo your posts, I'm not sure what implications you're making, I'm not sure what you mean when you said 'I threw out two posts', nad you're chart is sort of complicated to read.
Hika
Oh wait I forgot. Why the shit would me and Dawn both be suspicious.
It's not like I'm pushing his wagon hard. I'm still waiting input on everyone else.

Besides, I'm not the hammer vote so I'm not seeing why I'm suspicious.
Sakura

Hika wrote:

Oh wait I forgot. Why the shit would me and Dawn both be suspicious.
It's not like I'm pushing his wagon hard. I'm still waiting input on everyone else.

Besides, I'm not the hammer vote so I'm not seeing why I'm suspicious.
Isn't that exactly why.
Although probably for different reasons than frosty.
Speaking of reads and pushes, do you have any other scumreads?
Sakura
Ok nvm i misread something.
Regardless i dont see it impossible for this to be a bus, but slightly unlikely.
And that's even if Dawn flips scum.

Dunno why you not being the hammer vote would excempt you from being scum if Dawn flips town, nor why you not pushing it hard would also excempt you when literally almost everyone and their mother is scumreading him.
Hika
it's just weird how frostings always, by default, reads me as scum.
And I'm not being funny, it's just weird.
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