BagelBob wrote:

strager wrote:

nardi11011 wrote:

One thing I don't get: why did strager reveal his role instead of just saying "I was looking at the PM in the OP and was just wondering"?

Because I don't like lying.

I call BS, you meant to claim your roll. I was in the IRC with you before the game started. You could have sent your question as a PM to Suburu. You could have easily said that you were just curious. While lies generally do not help the town, the doctor role-claiming on the first day is worse.

BagelBob wrote:

Also, why are you ignoring these two posts?

BagelBob wrote:

From what I see in that post, I can only think that you're voting for Echo because Echo was attacking you. Is this correct? Is there anything else that I'm missing?

BagelBob wrote:

And again, Why are Derekku and 0_o above 50? Why are the rest of us below 50? Was that whole chart just BS?

BagelBob wrote:

But you didn't leave them out, and now you ought to explain what you said. Who mixed up a sequence of events and which sequence of events was it? What is it that you misunderstood? Do you need clarification on some matter?

BagelBob wrote:

This section is just a re-statement. I don't see any explanations, nor a need for any. Of course Echo thinks that you're a mafia. My first clue was the case, my second was the vote. I know you didn't think that Echo thought you were a vanilla townie. There was a whole section about whether or not you were fake-claiming as a townie, with Echo definitively of the mind that that would be a bad idea. You're saying that to make it look like Echo is lynching a townie. You should have at least said doctor, since that's what you're claiming to be.

BagelBob wrote:

A quick-lynch, such as the one you described, would generally be an obvious scum-tell.

BagelBob wrote:

Really, adam and Echo bandwagoning? Adam was the first one to vote for you, and Echo has been making the case.

strager wrote:

All I meant to say there that one or two of adam, Echo, nardi, and SFG were bandwagonning as a Mafia, not all of them.

BagelBob wrote:

your junk about random voting is this:

strager wrote:

In the first case I deduce one of these to be a Mafia: adam, SFG, nardi
In the third case I deduce these are probably NOT Mafia (because they didn't jump on the bandwagon): Derekku, 0_o

For the first case it seems as if adam's vote was random and SFG's vote was only somewhat random, as was nardi's. So my suspicions for the latter two are above my suspicions for adam. From that I really can't say much more though.

For the third case, 0_o seems to be really trying to defend me which either means he's deceitful (and will kill me at night) or genuinely trying to help the town. I'm not foolish enough to denounce the former but based on my observation above he may be a Townie more than a Mafia.
I really don't know what to think of Derekku because he hasn't been doing much from what I can see, really. He could be bad at analysis, not have information to discuss, or is smart enough not to talk because he may leak information. So ... not really sure.

BagelBob wrote:

In addition, did you mean that adam, SFG, and nardii's votes looked like bandwagon votes? You state that you think 0_o and Derekuu were not on the bandwagon, but then you throw junk about random voting. Adam's vote started out random, but he kept posting and saying that he was reading the thread and agreed with Echo's logic.

strager wrote:

BagelBob wrote:

You state that you think 0_o and Derekuu were not on the bandwagon, but then you throw junk about random voting.

Where is this "junk about random voting?"

BagelBob wrote:

Neither of those two pieces of code deals with our set-up. Why are you wasting time with things that don't apply? You can code all day, but when you get down to it, we aren't lynching someone at random.

strager wrote:

Also, some games only have one Mafia and some have three or more. (I know this specific game has two Mafia, but the game of Mafia doesn't have that ultimate rule. I was stating an example earlier.)

0_o wrote:

I think he was just pointing out that there are situations where not lynching would be in our best interests (like if there was one mafia), and he did these calculations to see if this also applied to our situation. And now we know it doesn't.

Chill out guys

Derekku Chan wrote:

strager wrote:

Also, some games only have one Mafia and some have three or more. (I know this specific game has two Mafia, but the game of Mafia doesn't have that ultimate rule. I was stating an example earlier.)

Then what's the fucking point of going through all of this? This game of mafia has TWO people as mafia. =|

EDIT: It should be common sense that it's a bad choice. =)

#forumshit wrote:

20:56 < BagelBob> strager
20:57 < strager> yo
20:57 < BagelBob> the reason that it turns out that no lynch is good for your 1 maf 7 town
20:57 < BagelBob> is because it's an even number of people
20:57 < strager> I know
20:57 < strager> But I know that only for one-Mafia games.
20:57 < strager> I wanted to check for OUR games.
20:57 < BagelBob> we have an odd number of people

strager wrote:

I feel obligated to post this, hopefully to clarify what some players may know from experience or whatever:

#forumshit wrote:

20:56 < BagelBob> strager
20:57 < strager> yo
20:57 < BagelBob> the reason that it turns out that no lynch is good for your 1 maf 7 town
20:57 < BagelBob> is because it's an even number of people
20:57 < strager> I know
20:57 < strager> But I know that only for one-Mafia games.
20:57 < strager> I wanted to check for OUR games.
20:57 < BagelBob> we have an odd number of people

0_o wrote:

EDIT: and if you think about it, his theory on strager's bandwagon (Echo, SFG, adam, nardi) does make some sense. Wouldn't you think a mafia member would jump at the chance to lynch the potential doctor? I think it's very likely that both of the mafia members are in that group.

#forumshit wrote:

20:21 < strager> I try to help you guys but you discredit me entirely
20:21 < strager> Because it's "common sense"
20:23 < Derekku_Chan> I just don't understand
20:23 < Derekku_Chan> What you were trying to do
20:23 < Derekku_Chan> :/
20:24 < strager|irc> viewtopic.php?p=142855#p142855
20:24 < strager|irc> Read the first white box
20:24 < Derekku_Chan> Yes, I see
20:24 < strager|irc> and the bold after that
20:24 < Derekku_Chan> Yes
20:25 < Derekku_Chan> I just don't get what the point of coding it to check it was
20:25 < Derekku_Chan> >_>
20:25 < strager|irc> viewtopic.php?p=142843#p142843
20:25 < strager|irc> it is POSSIBLE for SOME GAMES for "common sense" to be wrong
20:25 < strager|irc> I was checking if that was the case for THIS GAME.
20:26 < Derekku_Chan> but still, it's a free kill for mafia
20:26 < Derekku_Chan> so i don't get the point
20:26 < Derekku_Chan> lynch or be killed, that's how the game works xd
20:27 < strager|irc> STATISTICS.
20:27 < strager|irc> 20:25 < strager|irc> it is POSSIBLE for SOME GAMES for "common sense" to be wrong
20:27 < Derekku_Chan> Whatever
20:27 < Derekku_Chan> Sorry to upset you
20:27 < strager|irc> And thus statistically it is in the best interest of the town to not vote for the first day
20:28 < strager|irc> in that situation
20:28 < Derekku_Chan> Even though that makes no sense to me
20:28 < Derekku_Chan> :<
20:28 < strager|irc> Then stop posting about things you don't understand
20:28 < strager|irc> Well
20:28 < strager|irc> Stop discrediting things you don't understand.
20:32 < Derekku_Chan> Well, you were supposed to explain it :>
20:33 < strager|irc> I DID.
20:33 < strager|irc> Unless you wanted to know how it works
20:33 < Derekku_Chan> Pretty much
20:33 < strager|irc> In which case I never got that hint.
20:33 < strager|irc> Post asking
20:35 < Derekku_Chan> post'd
20:35 < strager|irc> Coding the program to tell how it thinks
20:35 < strager|irc> atn
20:35 < strager|irc> atm
20:35 < Derekku_Chan> xd

[later]

21:15 < Derekku_Chan> OH
21:15 < Derekku_Chan> that's what you mean
21:16 < Derekku_Chan> but still, at least you'd have a chance of killing someone if you lynched day 1
21:16 < Derekku_Chan> so it really doesnt matter xd
21:16 < Derekku_Chan> killing mafia*
21:16 < strager|irc> Derekku_Chan: Yes
21:16 < strager|irc> Derekku_Chan: That's handled in the probability

BagelBob wrote:

strager wrote:

I feel obligated to post this, hopefully to clarify what some players may know from experience or whatever:

#forumshit wrote:

20:56 < BagelBob> strager
20:57 < strager> yo
20:57 < BagelBob> the reason that it turns out that no lynch is good for your 1 maf 7 town
20:57 < BagelBob> is because it's an even number of people
20:57 < strager> I know
20:57 < strager> But I know that only for one-Mafia games.
20:57 < strager> I wanted to check for OUR games.
20:57 < BagelBob> we have an odd number of people

Right, because if we did have 1 scum and 7 town, if we lynced every day, lylo would be 3 town 1 scum, instead of 2 town 1 scum. What you keep posting is an 8 person game. We do not have an 8 person game. Stop posting code.

0_o wrote:

Actually, I think your numbers may be off strager, if you scroll down here http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki?title=Talk ... party_game)
it says that 9 players with 2 mafia, the town has approximately 21.5% shot at winning.
With 8 players and 2 mafia, it's 29.8%.

So this means that from a statistical point of view, our odds in fact do go up if we choose not to lynch, since it will make it an even number of players (which is conformed to have better odds)

0_o wrote:

Actually, I think your numbers may be off strager, if you scroll down here http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki?title=Talk ... party_game)
it says that 9 players with 2 mafia, the town has approximately 21.5% shot at winning.
With 8 players and 2 mafia, it's 29.8%.

strager wrote:

One, before the game started, I didn't have the Doctor PM.
Two, if I lied, I would have to stay with that lie. I would rather stay with the truth.
Three, claiming Doctor was an accident. I've said this several times I think.

strager wrote:

BagelBob wrote:

Also, why are you ignoring these two posts?

The second post I may have missed. I have nothing to comment on it though.

strager wrote:

The first post I thought I responded to, but apparently I didn't. Here's my response:

BagelBob wrote:

From what I see in that post, I can only think that you're voting for Echo because Echo was attacking you. Is this correct? Is there anything else that I'm missing?

That is correct.

BagelBob wrote:

And again, Why are Derekku and 0_o above 50? Why are the rest of us below 50? Was that whole chart just BS?

It was relative suspicion at the time. The list can be disregarded now as my opinion has changed, though.

BagelBob wrote:

And again, Why are Derekku and 0_o above 50? Why are the rest of us below 50? Was that whole chart just BS?

strager wrote:

BagelBob wrote:

This section is just a re-statement. I don't see any explanations, nor a need for any. Of course Echo thinks that you're a mafia. My first clue was the case, my second was the vote. I know you didn't think that Echo thought you were a vanilla townie. There was a whole section about whether or not you were fake-claiming as a townie, with Echo definitively of the mind that that would be a bad idea. You're saying that to make it look like Echo is lynching a townie. You should have at least said doctor, since that's what you're claiming to be.

Again, I wasn't trying to explain anything. I WAS re-stating.

strager wrote:

Yes, I was explaining why I said something, because Echo asked for an explanation (Echo's quote expanded for clarification):

strager wrote:

BagelBob wrote:

A quick-lynch, such as the one you described, would generally be an obvious scum-tell.

Circular reasoning?

strager wrote:

BagelBob wrote:

Really, adam and Echo bandwagoning? Adam was the first one to vote for you, and Echo has been making the case.

I never said that. The exact thing you quoted:

strager wrote:

All I meant to say there that one or two of adam, Echo, nardi, and SFG were bandwagonning as a Mafia, not all of them.

strager wrote:

BagelBob wrote:

your junk about random voting is this:

In chronological order:

strager wrote:

In the first case I deduce one of these to be a Mafia: adam, SFG, nardi
In the third case I deduce these are probably NOT Mafia (because they didn't jump on the bandwagon): Derekku, 0_o

For the first case it seems as if adam's vote was random and SFG's vote was only somewhat random, as was nardi's. So my suspicions for the latter two are above my suspicions for adam. From that I really can't say much more though.

For the third case, 0_o seems to be really trying to defend me which either means he's deceitful (and will kill me at night) or genuinely trying to help the town. I'm not foolish enough to denounce the former but based on my observation above he may be a Townie more than a Mafia.
I really don't know what to think of Derekku because he hasn't been doing much from what I can see, really. He could be bad at analysis, not have information to discuss, or is smart enough not to talk because he may leak information. So ... not really sure.

BagelBob wrote:

In addition, did you mean that adam, SFG, and nardii's votes looked like bandwagon votes? You state that you think 0_o and Derekuu were not on the bandwagon, but then you throw junk about random voting. Adam's vote started out random, but he kept posting and saying that he was reading the thread and agreed with Echo's logic.

strager wrote:

BagelBob wrote:

You state that you think 0_o and Derekuu were not on the bandwagon, but then you throw junk about random voting.

Where is this "junk about random voting?"

The random voting part was for the first case, and the 0_o and Derekku part was for the third case.

strager wrote:

On the first day the first lynch is probably random anyway.

adam2046 wrote:

I do not understand why I am the mafia if Echo is a vanilla, Nardi even less (since I know nothing about him and never see him post much)

Facts and figures please?

Saturos-fangirl wrote:

0_o wrote:

EDIT: and if you think about it, his theory on strager's bandwagon (Echo, SFG, adam, nardi) does make some sense. Wouldn't you think a mafia member would jump at the chance to lynch the potential doctor? I think it's very likely that both of the mafia members are in that group.

this does make sense, im going to go back to voting on adam like i should have been doing all along. 67% chance of hitting a mafia sounds great to me, and since im pretty sure Echo is vanilla, that means adam and nardi are the mafia members.

tl;dr vote adam, FOS nardi

Echo wrote:

Even if strager is innocent, the mafia wouldn't jump on since that'd be a huge scum tell.

Echo wrote:

Three things only.

0_o wrote:

EDIT: and if you think about it, his theory on strager's bandwagon (Echo, SFG, adam, nardi) does make some sense. Wouldn't you think a mafia member would jump at the chance to lynch the potential doctor? I think it's very likely that both of the mafia members are in that group.

I already answered this back here when SFG asked the same question.

Echo wrote:

And strager/derekku/bagel are talking about the game in IRC, which is against the rules (simple "posted" lines are ok, I guess, but entire convos are a big no-no. ALL proper conversation MUST be in this thread for all to see).

Echo wrote:

edit: I see Suburu has modified the rules slightly, but I still have no guarantee that that is all they talked about in IRC. Post all logs please preferably as an attachment.

Echo wrote:

And finally NO MORE PERCENTAGES they are completely irrelevant

Echo wrote:

If strager is mafia, then of course we won't have the mafia jumping on.

strager wrote:

Even if strager is innocent, the mafia wouldn't jump on since that'd be a huge scum tell.

0_o wrote:

Echo wrote:

If strager is mafia, then of course we won't have the mafia jumping on.

True, this only applies if you believe strager is innocent. And I do.

0_o wrote:

strager wrote:

Even if strager is innocent, the mafia wouldn't jump on since that'd be a huge scum tell.

Well in that case no one is gonna be lynched since anyone who delivers the final blow is gonna be considered mafia

0_o wrote:

strager wrote:

Even if strager is innocent, the mafia wouldn't jump on since that'd be a huge scum tell.

Well in that case no one is gonna be lynched since anyone who delivers the final blow is gonna be considered mafia

Echo wrote:

0_o wrote:

strager wrote:

Even if strager is innocent, the mafia wouldn't jump on since that'd be a huge scum tell.

Well in that case no one is gonna be lynched since anyone who delivers the final blow is gonna be considered mafia

Nope. It depends on the context; if the last person votes with a valid reason, then it's sweet.

Saturos-fangirl wrote:

to other M2 players: this is the last day before we need to have a decision. if we do not decide, the mafia will get a free nightkill while we dither around not lynching people. Change your vote before time runs out~ (wow that sounded DOOM-y lol)

0_o wrote:

From what I remember looking through the first WW game, when adam and yoshikart were mafia, adam was on L-1 and yoshikart didn't say a thing. In fact, every post that he made was either a vote or a vote change, with little to no explaination. So don't think that being quiet means they are innocent; they are just as likely to be a wolf who is afraid of posting something suspicious.

0_o wrote:

That, and throwing someone on L-2 is a pretty effective way of getting them to speak up

Derekku Chan wrote:

0_o wrote:

That, and throwing someone on L-2 is a pretty effective way of getting them to speak up

nardi is on L-1 ;/

strager wrote:

Woah there.

Hasty.

I have noticed nardi in the "Users browsing the forum" at the bottom on several occasions and he hasn't posted. So here's what I think.

If he is a Townie, he's going a pretty horrible job at "blending in." He stands out as a lurker and doesn't even attempt to post anything meaningful.
If he is a Mafia, he's trying to sabotage the game by the same cause so Mafia loses. That's Pretty Gay (tm).

I really doubt a Mafia would sabotage his buddy like that so I'm leaning toward the possibility of him being a Townie.

Yes, I'm defending nardi, but it's not like he's here so he can to defend himself anyway. =\

EDIT: [strike] and added "to" to make sentence more understandable.

0_o wrote:

So.. you are saying that the mafia is incapable of coming up with a valid reason to lynch someone?

Echo wrote:

0_o wrote:

So.. you are saying that the mafia is incapable of coming up with a valid reason to lynch someone?

That is exactly what I'm saying. There should be no evidence in posts against townies, which means mafia won't be able to bring up a valid reason to lynch a townie.

BagelBob wrote:

strager wrote:

Woah there.

Hasty.

I have noticed nardi in the "Users browsing the forum" at the bottom on several occasions and he hasn't posted. So here's what I think.

If he is a Townie, he's going a pretty horrible job at "blending in." He stands out as a lurker and doesn't even attempt to post anything meaningful.
If he is a Mafia, he's trying to sabotage the game by the same cause so Mafia loses. That's Pretty Gay (tm).

I really doubt a Mafia would sabotage his buddy like that so I'm leaning toward the possibility of him being a Townie.

Yes, I'm defending nardi, but it's not like he's here so he can to defend himself anyway. =\

EDIT: [strike] and added "to" to make sentence more understandable.

When you say "his buddy" who are you referring to? (nardi is "a Mafia" in that sentence, yes?)

strager/agreeing with 0_o's post wrote:

Indeed. Echo himself used my mistakes as evidence that I am a Mafia, which contradicts what he says here.

Echo wrote:

strager/agreeing with 0_o's post wrote:

Indeed. Echo himself used my mistakes as evidence that I am a Mafia, which contradicts what he says here.

Um lol? You are mafia. No contradiction whatsoever.

Echo wrote:

Until you do that, what I've said stands true.

Echo wrote:

I'll give you a hint, it's the bolded half sentence in the second unquoted paragraph.

Echo wrote:

Whereas I've conjured up a single sentence with enough evidence to send you to kingdom come, none of which you've satisfactorily defended against, you've brought none of my posts against me.

1. refute my 3 points in the linked post
2. attack me with my posts

strager wrote:

True until proven false is your word?

Echo wrote:

I would like you to do two things:

1. refute my 3 points in the linked post
2. attack me with my posts

strager wrote:

Derekku Chan wrote:

jk

I hope not?

Echo wrote:

@derekku: then lynch strager today and me tomorrow. It's not like you can lynch two people on the same day. If we're both mafia, it won't make a difference. I don't mind dying, if it'll help townies win. It's a team game after all.

Echo wrote:

@strager: then tell me why anyone should be listening to you.

strager wrote:

Derekku Chan wrote:

That means you are mafia? :<

I am not a Mafia.

0_o wrote:

Echo wrote:

0_o wrote:

So.. you are saying that the mafia is incapable of coming up with a valid reason to lynch someone?

That is exactly what I'm saying. There should be no evidence in posts against townies, which means mafia won't be able to bring up a valid reason to lynch a townie.

Why not? Humans come up with "evidence" against other humans to lynch them, the only difference is that the mafia actually knows that they are lynching a human.

Echo wrote:

You're refusing to defend yourself against my evidence, and you're refusing to bring any evidence against me, yet you claim you are townie and I am mafia?

I think the simple answer is that there is no evidence you can use to defend yourself, and there is no evidence you can bring against me. Which means you are mafia, and I am townie.

Echo wrote:

Townies will be able to convincingly bring evidence to show that the evidence used against them is misguided.

strager wrote:

Echo wrote:

You're refusing to defend yourself against my evidence, and you're refusing to bring any evidence against me, yet you claim you are townie and I am mafia?

I think the simple answer is that there is no evidence you can use to defend yourself, and there is no evidence you can bring against me. Which means you are mafia, and I am townie.

That doesn't explain this at all:

Echo wrote:

@strager: then tell me why anyone should be listening to you.

which is what I asked about.

You're saying even if I defend myself I shouldn't be believed, and even if I attack you I shouldn't be believed?

1. Assume what everyone is saying is true
2. Find evidence to show that a person is likely lying. From this point on assume everything he says is false.
3. That person defends himself.
4. Given that the person does so convincingly, assume from this point on everything he says is true. Otherwise, he is likely mafia and should be lynched.

Echo wrote:

Stop twisting my words.

Echo wrote:

I'm saying if you can't defend yourself, then there is no reason why anyone should believe what you say. If you can defend yourself, then that proves you're not mafia, and what you say holds legitimate value.

Echo wrote:

1. Assume what everyone is saying is true
2. Find evidence to show that a person is likely lying. From this point on assume everything he says is false.
3. That person defends himself.
4. Given that the person does so convincingly, assume from this point on everything he says is true. Otherwise, he is likely mafia and should be lynched.

strager wrote:

Echo wrote:

I'm saying if you can't defend yourself, then there is no reason why anyone should believe what you say. If you can defend yourself, then that proves you're not mafia, and what you say holds legitimate value.

I'm sure a Mafia can convincingly defend themself too, smart one.

strager wrote:

Echo wrote:

1. Assume what everyone is saying is true
2. Find evidence to show that a person is likely lying. From this point on assume everything he says is false.
3. That person defends himself.
4. Given that the person does so convincingly, assume from this point on everything he says is true. Otherwise, he is likely mafia and should be lynched.

And this logic has gotten you how far in Mafia games?

And this logic has gotten you how far in Mafia games?

nardi11011 wrote:

Echo wrote:

よろしくおねがいしま～す

QFT

like i know what it means

nardi11011 wrote:

Anyway, I'm keeping my vote on strager as he just seems to be acting too strange to me.

nardi11011 wrote:

Especially his very first slip-up doesn't seem to fit in with the rest of his posts, as I don't see why someone would rather risk dying the first night than lie about their role.

nardi11011 wrote:

Holy shit, 6 pages? I hate timezones. Anyway, I'm keeping my vote on strager as he just seems to be acting too strange to me. Especially his very first slip-up doesn't seem to fit in with the rest of his posts, as I don't see why someone would rather risk dying the first night than lie about their role. I don't see anyone else as overly suspicious, so I'm not changing my vote.

also,

Echo wrote:

よろしくおねがいしま～す

QFT

like i know what it means

BagelBob wrote:

0_o, who are you voting for right now? That last one was only 80% there.

0_o wrote:

BagelBob wrote:

0_o, who are you voting for right now? That last one was only 80% there.

I'm indifferent on whether we lynch nardi or adam, and nardi hasn't said anything that would convince me to change my vote, so for now, my vote stands.

0_o wrote:

strager wrote:

Derekku Chan wrote:

That means you are mafia? :<

I am not a Mafia.

Funny, that's exactly what someone who is in the mafia would say

vote stra-

lol

0_o wrote:

EDIT: and if you think about it, his theory on strager's bandwagon (Echo, SFG, adam, nardi) does make some sense. Wouldn't you think a mafia member would jump at the chance to lynch the potential doctor? I think it's very likely that both of the mafia members are in that group.

0_o wrote:

That vote for you was a joke, I obviously wouldn't defend you this whole time, then vote for you because you said you weren't mafia

And I'm voting for him because as I've already said

0_o wrote:

EDIT: and if you think about it, his theory on strager's bandwagon (Echo, SFG, adam, nardi) does make some sense. Wouldn't you think a mafia member would jump at the chance to lynch the potential doctor? I think it's very likely that both of the mafia members are in that group.

I'm not confident enough to vote Echo and I believe SFG is a townie. So I'm fine with either nardi or adam, and since nardi is already on L-2, then well, there you go. I'm not going to split the vote between 2 people who I think should be lynched.