Or a mafia member could just as easily NOT slip into the bandwagon because every single person in the game thinks you're the most suspicious and you'll probably get lynched regardless of what the mafia do.animask wrote:
A mafia member could easily slip into the bandwagon, so
you could question the votes now or just letting me get lynched to
increase the odds of hitting mafia the next Day.
forum
An osu! Mafia 2 - SERIAL KILLER / JESTER WIN
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this applies here too so
unvote
I just think that because animask says stuff like that, that if they really were mafia they'd be a lot more passive (like in the other mafia game I'm in, where they are mafia)
unvote
I just think that because animask says stuff like that, that if they really were mafia they'd be a lot more passive (like in the other mafia game I'm in, where they are mafia)
Two wrote:
a lot of suspicious unvoting
you guys aren't going to rush his lynch in are you
Well it would be nice if animask could post something more incriminating in reply.
Well isn't two rather frantic~ 
But uh, anyways everyone unvoting rather hastily? Probably just to see what the real vote total looks like...
But uh, anyways everyone unvoting rather hastily? Probably just to see what the real vote total looks like...
Again, I really want to vote animask, but my gut never agrees me. I'll have to go through the thread again orz
FoS: Wojjan
You're not really even saying anything, just quoting people.
You're not really even saying anything, just quoting people.
Hi Two sup
Lybydose wrote:
FoS: Wojjan
You're not really even saying anything, just quoting people.
this guy
also relaying this message from LS in the other thread:
LadySuburu wrote:
Posting to say I have limited internet access (PS3 when I do.) until mon/tues. Will check on threads when I do have access but posting is difficult. If someone would pass this message on in the other two threads that would be great.
Dumb role god damnit wrote:
It's a posting quirk. I'm supposed to get a message when I break it, so I'm testing the limits in risk of losing my vote.
How come you weren't quoting anything at the beginning of the day?Wojjan wrote:
Dumb role god damnit wrote:
It's a posting quirk. I'm supposed to get a message when I break it, so I'm testing the limits in risk of losing my vote.
I kind of figured that, but you had two previous posts that weren't direct quotes (your vote and your preference of claiming fool).
doublepost:
Assuming you're allowed to vote without directly quoting someone (but you've now edited it to quote...yourself?), that still doesn't explain the first one.
Assuming you're allowed to vote without directly quoting someone (but you've now edited it to quote...yourself?), that still doesn't explain the first one.
It got imposed on me during the day. I don't know of any mafia role that can give people typing quirks.
Anyways, I've broken my conduct with the last post, so my vote will still show up on tallies, but not be counted towards the end result. I thought maybe quoting my vote would help (as much as editing posts is discouraged) but I really doubt it.
Anyways, I've broken my conduct with the last post, so my vote will still show up on tallies, but not be counted towards the end result. I thought maybe quoting my vote would help (as much as editing posts is discouraged) but I really doubt it.
There is a way to see if Wojjan is lying, but it's a bit of a gambit. If what he says is true, he now has a phantom ghost on animask: it shows that he's voting, but doesn't actually count.
If 7 other people vote for animask, he will hit 8 votes, normally enough for a hammer. If Wojjan is telling the truth, animask won't get lynched immediately though, and then we can all just unvote. On the other hand, if Wojjan is lying, animask will get lynched at 8 and hey, we found our first mafioso: it's Wojjan.
There's the possibility of a mafioso hammering animask when he's at 8 votes (7 when you consider Wojjan's vote). That would be stupid though, we would just lynch whoever was bad enough to cast the 8th non-Wojjan vote. No sane townie would cast the hammering vote in this situation; you can't WIFOM your way out of that one.
There is some risk though. What if there are doublevoters? Doublevoters are town and know they can doublevote though, so they would just hold off from voting. If this were the case, we would waste the next day chasing Wojjan.
It's risky, but there's no much to go on D1. A townie usually gets lynched D1 either way.
Thoughts?
If 7 other people vote for animask, he will hit 8 votes, normally enough for a hammer. If Wojjan is telling the truth, animask won't get lynched immediately though, and then we can all just unvote. On the other hand, if Wojjan is lying, animask will get lynched at 8 and hey, we found our first mafioso: it's Wojjan.
There's the possibility of a mafioso hammering animask when he's at 8 votes (7 when you consider Wojjan's vote). That would be stupid though, we would just lynch whoever was bad enough to cast the 8th non-Wojjan vote. No sane townie would cast the hammering vote in this situation; you can't WIFOM your way out of that one.
There is some risk though. What if there are doublevoters? Doublevoters are town and know they can doublevote though, so they would just hold off from voting. If this were the case, we would waste the next day chasing Wojjan.
It's risky, but there's no much to go on D1. A townie usually gets lynched D1 either way.
Thoughts?
missed a sentence up there about doublevoters. Should read like this:
blahblah doublevoters. However, there might be doublevoters that don't know about their power and end up killing animask with votes. If this were the case, we would waste the next day chasing Wojjan.
blahblah doublevoters. However, there might be doublevoters that don't know about their power and end up killing animask with votes. If this were the case, we would waste the next day chasing Wojjan.
Alright, read through the thread again, and there were two posts in particular that kinda rubbed me the wrong way. They're relatively weaker points, but we really can't expect conclusive evidence on Day 1 so I'm just going with what I got.
Like I said, they aren't great points, but I don't have a whole lot else to go on at the moment.
So FoS on adam & intermu
Pointing out that it was "the usual first day voting" before casting his RVS vote seemed a bit shifty. It wasn't necessary, and it kinda gave me the impression that he gave that extra explanation to his vote because he was paranoid of looking suspicious (which mafia tend to be).intermu wrote:
It's the usual first day voting!
Vote: Ph0x
Don't want to let people feel left out
This was a response to my post here. My post was a pretty obvious joke, and seeing as adam is usually one to joke around a lot on day 1 (and 2, and 3), his attack on me seemed out of character.adam2046 wrote:
Vote: 0_o
Acting like a defeatist is a good sign of being scum or really bad under pressure.
Like I said, they aren't great points, but I don't have a whole lot else to go on at the moment.
So FoS on adam & intermu
Cheap THIS IS SRS joke in response to joke post.0_o wrote:
This was a response to my post here. My post was a pretty obvious joke, and seeing as adam is usually one to joke around a lot on day 1 (and 2, and 3), his attack on me seemed out of character.adam2046 wrote:
Vote: 0_o
Acting like a defeatist is a good sign of being scum or really bad under pressure.
...Am I still voting you?
Interesting idea, though like you said, even if he was lynched at 8 we still wouldn't know for sure whether he was lying or not due to the possibility of secret doublevoters. We would be able to prove if he's telling the truth, but not if he's lying.Lyby wrote:
get animask to 8 votes to see if Wojjan is telling the truth
I'm just not sure if I want to risk lynching animask for it though. I'm feeling animask as pro-town at the moment, and even if Wojjan is telling the truth about his votelessness, that doesn't guarantee that he's pro-town. He could be a voteless mafia member who's trying to cover up his lack of vote for all we know. Risking a lynch just to see if Wojjan really is voteless just doesn't seem like it's worth the risk to me.
You're voting animask I think.adam2046 wrote:
Cheap THIS IS SRS joke in response to joke post.
...Am I still voting you?
Don't blame me though, blame plaintext's inability to convey subtle sarcastic cues.
Alright guys I'm gonna be moving in the next couple days, so I probably won't get a whole lot of opportunities to post. I'll try to keep up as much as I can, but I likely won't be able to be very active til ~1 day before the lynch.
Don't do anything stupid ^_^
Don't do anything stupid ^_^
Wojjan is a girl.
I'm part of an experiment? Wojjan might be (townie)aux/mafia based on your reasoning. Both of
those roles have reasons to lie. Then again, the risk isn't too high is it? I'll wait for more input
from everybody else. (I don't get to decide if we're doing this or not, do I?)
I'm part of an experiment? Wojjan might be (townie)aux/mafia based on your reasoning. Both of
those roles have reasons to lie. Then again, the risk isn't too high is it? I'll wait for more input
from everybody else. (I don't get to decide if we're doing this or not, do I?)
I can't tell if you're dumb or not. Wojjan lying or telling the truth about only being able to quote is irrelevant when it comes to them being mafia. Ok so we vote up animask and he gets lynched. Guess wojjan's vote counted. Does that mean they are mafia? No.Lybydose wrote:
There is a way to see if Wojjan is lying, but it's a bit of a gambit. If what he says is true, he now has a phantom ghost on animask: it shows that he's voting, but doesn't actually count.
If 7 other people vote for animask, he will hit 8 votes, normally enough for a hammer. If Wojjan is telling the truth, animask won't get lynched immediately though, and then we can all just unvote. On the other hand, if Wojjan is lying, animask will get lynched at 8 and hey, we found our first mafioso: it's Wojjan.
All it would do is confirm the fact that someone has a role that can do something like that.
Someone pro-town would have no logical reason to lie about not being able to vote.
I'm all for Lybydose's little scheme, so uh
Vote animask
Vote animask
Topic Starter
VOTE COUNT
animask (3) - adam2046, Wojjan, Mashley
Mashley (1) - Two
Not Voting (11) - Quaraezha, animask, naptime, pieguy1372, LadySuburu, DeathxShinigami, Lybydose, intermu, 0_o, bmin11, Rantai
WITH 15 ALIVE, IT TAKES 8 TO HAMMER.
Prodded intermu, pieguy1372.
animask (3) - adam2046, Wojjan, Mashley
Mashley (1) - Two
Not Voting (11) - Quaraezha, animask, naptime, pieguy1372, LadySuburu, DeathxShinigami, Lybydose, intermu, 0_o, bmin11, Rantai
WITH 15 ALIVE, IT TAKES 8 TO HAMMER.
Prodded intermu, pieguy1372.
MOD: If we end up with 7 votes on animask, would we face a lynch on animask regardless (most votes) or have a no lynch? IF it's the latter, go ahead I guess, a no lynch on day 1 has its advantages.
Topic Starter
In that case then animask will get lynched.
The person with the highest votes when the deadline hits will get lynched.
The person with the highest votes when the deadline hits will get lynched.
Responding to prod~
I can't tell anything yet because it's only the first day
I did notice this though
I can't tell anything yet because it's only the first day
I did notice this thoughIf Wojjan's vote counted, it wouldn't confirm that someone had such a role, it would confirm the exact opposite: that no one had such a role and Wojjan was lying. Wojjan wouldn't have a reason to lie if he was innocent, so I'll go along and vote animask.Two wrote:
I can't tell if you're dumb or not. Wojjan lying or telling the truth about only being able to quote is irrelevant when it comes to them being mafia. Ok so we vote up animask and he gets lynched. Guess wojjan's vote counted. Does that mean they are mafia? No.Lybydose wrote:
There is a way to see if Wojjan is lying, but it's a bit of a gambit. If what he says is true, he now has a phantom ghost on animask: it shows that he's voting, but doesn't actually count.
If 7 other people vote for animask, he will hit 8 votes, normally enough for a hammer. If Wojjan is telling the truth, animask won't get lynched immediately though, and then we can all just unvote. On the other hand, if Wojjan is lying, animask will get lynched at 8 and hey, we found our first mafioso: it's Wojjan.
All it would do is confirm the fact that someone has a role that can do something like that.
Sorry. A spontaneous all-night karaoke session with friends interrupted my hikikomori session and I forgot about this.
---
I'll just be honest, I'm quite bad at processing information so I'll need to reread again Wojjan's thing with the votes and quotes. I haven't really understood it very well, but I looked back a couple of pages and noticed Adam also posted a couple with quotes. Maybe it's a rotational thing between a few people?
Will look up posts again later.
Well, that's the first day, no? At the time it was the baseless voting phase, so hey. I did later unvote though, but I do understand your forcing of the issue since it is day 1 after all; not much to work with, really.0_o wrote:
Alright, read through the thread again, and there were two posts in particular that kinda rubbed me the wrong way. They're relatively weaker points, but we really can't expect conclusive evidence on Day 1 so I'm just going with what I got.Pointing out that it was "the usual first day voting" before casting his RVS vote seemed a bit shifty. It wasn't necessary, and it kinda gave me the impression that he gave that extra explanation to his vote because he was paranoid of looking suspicious (which mafia tend to be).intermu wrote:
It's the usual first day voting!
Vote: Ph0x
Don't want to let people feel left out
Like I said, they aren't great points, but I don't have a whole lot else to go on at the moment.
So FoS on adam & intermu
---
I'll just be honest, I'm quite bad at processing information so I'll need to reread again Wojjan's thing with the votes and quotes. I haven't really understood it very well, but I looked back a couple of pages and noticed Adam also posted a couple with quotes. Maybe it's a rotational thing between a few people?
Will look up posts again later.
yeah I had that backwards, but wojjan wouldn't have a reason to lie if she wasn't innocent, eitherpieguy1372 wrote:
If Wojjan's vote counted, it wouldn't confirm that someone had such a role, it would confirm the exact opposite: that no one had such a role and Wojjan was lying. Wojjan wouldn't have a reason to lie if he was innocent, so I'll go along and vote animask.
in fact it makes less sense if wojjan is mafia
It isn't.intermu wrote:
I looked back a couple of pages and noticed Adam also posted a couple with quotes. Maybe it's a rotational thing between a few people?
Yes she would have a reason to lie, in order to stop people from accusing her. If she was Mafia, though, I doubt she'd lie by saying something like that that would draw even more attention to it...
I still think following through with Lybydose's plan is the best idea for now though.
Also, I think adam would know if he had a posting restriction...
I still think following through with Lybydose's plan is the best idea for now though.
Also, I think adam would know if he had a posting restriction...
naptime
Not entirely sure how following through with Lybydose's plan suggests we forgo reasons to vote for someone and match Wojjan's vote when she should probably be the one matching ours. Unless you gave a reason to vote for animask and I missed it.
Personally the only thing pushing me towards voting for animask is curiosity.
Personally the only thing pushing me towards voting for animask is curiosity.
This. If we're gonna do this test then figure out who we wanna lynch first, then get Wojjan on the bandwagon. How does everyone feel about an animask lynch, disregarding Lyby's plan?naptime wrote:
Not entirely sure how following through with Lybydose's plan suggests we forgo reasons to vote for someone and match Wojjan's vote when she should probably be the one matching ours. Unless you gave a reason to vote for animask and I missed it.
Personally the only thing pushing me towards voting for animask is curiosity.
NoHItter@ I unvoted my vote before. Please fix it for me
About Wojjan role claiming to avoid accusations. It's hard to believe wojjan would role claim with such mild accusation as what just happened. Not sure why she's doing this, but I'm getting a feeling that she's not doing this for bad intention.
However, if the public wants to figure wojjan's role out and lynch animask (who my gut tells me pro-town), I have no problem with it. animask is the one who's suppose to be worry with this experiment anyway >_>
About Wojjan role claiming to avoid accusations. It's hard to believe wojjan would role claim with such mild accusation as what just happened. Not sure why she's doing this, but I'm getting a feeling that she's not doing this for bad intention.
However, if the public wants to figure wojjan's role out and lynch animask (who my gut tells me pro-town), I have no problem with it. animask is the one who's suppose to be worry with this experiment anyway >_>
I'm not gonna vote for animask just to test a theory out when I don't think he's posting in a way that he would if he was mafia. It would be too easy for the votes to legitimately go over the limit.
Better plan: We do the voting plan, but with Wojjan as the target. This way, if Wojjan is lying, he's procuring his own lynch.
Thoughts?
(As stated in the other thread, Temporary use of computer. (Maybe till 30min from now?) )
Thoughts?
(As stated in the other thread, Temporary use of computer. (Maybe till 30min from now?) )
I thought of this too, butLadySuburu wrote:
Better plan: We do the voting plan, but with Wojjan as the target. This way, if Wojjan is lying, he's procuring his own lynch.
Thoughts?
(As stated in the other thread, Temporary use of computer. (Maybe till 30min from now?) )
a) that might be a little tough to get Wojjan to go along with that whether he's town or mafia due to possible doublevoters
b) Why risk it just to see if he really is voteless today? I don't see how having a typing quirk is a strictly pro-town condition, so even if he is proven to be voteless how is that helpful to us?
I meant if we were going to ltest the voting theory at all. I don't really believe wojjan's claim in the first place.0_o wrote:
I thought of this too, butLadySuburu wrote:
Better plan: We do the voting plan, but with Wojjan as the target. This way, if Wojjan is lying, he's procuring his own lynch.
Thoughts?
(As stated in the other thread, Temporary use of computer. (Maybe till 30min from now?) )
a) that might be a little tough to get Wojjan to go along with that whether he's town or mafia due to possible doublevoters
b) Why risk it just to see if he really is voteless today? I don't see how having a typing quirk is a strictly pro-town condition, so even if he is proven to be voteless how is that helpful to us?
My lynch choices for now are wojjan and animask. I don't feel confident enough about animask, but there's not much more to go on.
Also, computer access gone.
2 irl days to go, and I really can't see this 'test' happening tbh...
A question to all players: If you had to pick one player to lynch today, who would it be and why?
A question to all players: If you had to pick one player to lynch today, who would it be and why?
At this point I'm almost leaning towards a no lynch, there really isn't anyone who I would feel comfortable setting a vote on right now. I think a night to let the auxes do their thing might be the best thing to do.Mashley wrote:
2 irl days to go, and I really can't see this 'test' happening tbh...
A question to all players: If you had to pick one player to lynch today, who would it be and why?
Granted this WILL bring us to an even number of people, though it's pretty early in the game and the chances of an extra kill (or a successful protection) in the next few days probably isn't bad.
If you guys have any strong opinions about who to lynch then knock yourselves out, but I don't, so for now:
vote no
No lynch is an interesting suggestion, but to be honest I really don't think it's useful on Day 1 - you're losing a chance to find the mafia. Though I will agree that no one here stands out as suspicious at the moment - that's why I asked the question 
.
.Sure, but we also avoid the risk of lynching a townie (which, seeing as we really don't have much to go on, is quite high), and we would give our auxes the chance to use their powers so we could have a more informed lynch tomorrow.Mashley wrote:
No lynch is an interesting suggestion, but to be honest I really don't think it's useful on Day 1 - you're losing a chance to find the mafia.
Basically it would be the same thing as starting a game with a Night 0, which I believe is more beneficial to the town than mafia.
I am and will forever be against no lynch. I would rather have a 10% chance to lynch mafia than 0. Losing a day so aux roles have a chance at finding mafia isn't worth it. It's the aux role's job to play in a way that they don't get chosen at night/day, and if they can't do that we lose anyway.
Sure there would be a 0% chance of lynching mafia - there would also be a 0% chance of lynching a townie. If we had a consensus on one or two candiates then I would say sure, let's lynch one of them. But we don't, so I feel like the odds of lynching mafia tonight are going to be equal to or less than chance (20% if there are 3 mafia, which, seeing as the last game had 14 players w/3 mafia, is probably a safe guess). Assuming we have 3+ aux roles (we had a doctor + deputy + doctor + nurse last game, so I'd say it's likely), we are just as likely if not more likely to lynch an aux today than a mafioso.Two wrote:
I would rather have a 10% chance to lynch mafia than 0.
Would you really want to take the 80% chance of lynching a townie, with a 20-30% chance of hitting an aux, for a 20% chance of hitting mafia?
Though now that I think of it you probably aren't going to change your mind no matter what I say so there probably wasn't any point in typing this up. Oh well.
If anyone has any better ideas (specifically, we should lynch x), then please speak up, but if we can't come to any conclusions then I really do think a no lynch isn't the worst backup plan.
Actually wait a sec.
Here are the number of alive players each day, assuming there are no extra kills, no successful protections and no mafia is lynched. Red percentages indicate the odds that we lynch a townie that day
No Lynch
Day 1 - 15 No lynch N/A
Day 2 - 14 79%
Day 3 - 12 75%
Day 4 - 10 70%
Day 5 - 8 lylo, but no lynch must be done to increase the odds of hitting mafia. N/A
Day 6 - 7 lylo 57%
Odds of losing without lynching a single mafia: 23.6%
Lynch
Day 1 - 15 80%
Day 2 - 13 76%
Day 3 - 11 73%
Day 4 - 9 67%
Day 5 - 7 lylo 57%
Odds of losing without lynching a single mafia: 17.0%
We have a minimum of 5 tries with a lynch today - only 4 tries with a no lynch. The no lynch scenario has the advantage of granting one more night action for the auxes, but it's difficult to say whether that balances out or not...
unvote no lynch
I dunno, what do the rest of you think?
Here are the number of alive players each day, assuming there are no extra kills, no successful protections and no mafia is lynched. Red percentages indicate the odds that we lynch a townie that day
No Lynch
Day 1 - 15 No lynch N/A
Day 2 - 14 79%
Day 3 - 12 75%
Day 4 - 10 70%
Day 5 - 8 lylo, but no lynch must be done to increase the odds of hitting mafia. N/A
Day 6 - 7 lylo 57%
Odds of losing without lynching a single mafia: 23.6%
Lynch
Day 1 - 15 80%
Day 2 - 13 76%
Day 3 - 11 73%
Day 4 - 9 67%
Day 5 - 7 lylo 57%
Odds of losing without lynching a single mafia: 17.0%
We have a minimum of 5 tries with a lynch today - only 4 tries with a no lynch. The no lynch scenario has the advantage of granting one more night action for the auxes, but it's difficult to say whether that balances out or not...
unvote no lynch
I dunno, what do the rest of you think?
QUAD POST YEAH
Also those percentages assume 3 mafia, as stated in my previous paragraph.
Also those percentages assume 3 mafia, as stated in my previous paragraph.
naptime
Oh wow nice percentages. I wasn't a big fan of "not voting and letting aux do their thing" either since that doesn't seem to guarantee a smarter lynch on Day 2, especially with this many players to sway.
As for who I want to lynch now, it's hard to think of an answer that won't just seem baseless and random. If it's just a vote, probably Quaraezha or someone who suddenly stopped posting despite a bunch of stuff popping up.
As for who I want to lynch now, it's hard to think of an answer that won't just seem baseless and random. If it's just a vote, probably Quaraezha or someone who suddenly stopped posting despite a bunch of stuff popping up.
About the gambit trick thing: the intention is basically to see if Wojjan is lying or not. I suppose it would also work for anyone else we lynch though, not necessarily just animask. At this point animask does somewhat strike me as pro-town, despite being really stupid, so it might not be best to lynch him.
About seeing of Wojjan is lying or not: townies pretty much never have any reason to lie about anything in a game, with the exception of specific circumstances like roleclaiming Paranoid Gun Owner or Bomb or something. The mafia, however, have reason to lie about everything they say. They don't think someone is suspicious or believe someone is pro-town, they know someone is mafia or town or whatever. Acting weird and then coming up with a false reason that can be verified as false is not something a townie would do. A lying townie does nothing but work against his own team.
About who to lynch: it's probably too late to do the gambit thing, unless everyone agrees on someone to lynch. Thing is, there isn't really anything to go off of. At this point, I'm inclined to just vote Quaraezha. He hasn't said anything in forever, and what little he did say had virtually no substance. Lurking is generally a null-tell, but a lurking townie still isn't much use anyway. I'd like to at least see his opinion on things.
About seeing of Wojjan is lying or not: townies pretty much never have any reason to lie about anything in a game, with the exception of specific circumstances like roleclaiming Paranoid Gun Owner or Bomb or something. The mafia, however, have reason to lie about everything they say. They don't think someone is suspicious or believe someone is pro-town, they know someone is mafia or town or whatever. Acting weird and then coming up with a false reason that can be verified as false is not something a townie would do. A lying townie does nothing but work against his own team.
About who to lynch: it's probably too late to do the gambit thing, unless everyone agrees on someone to lynch. Thing is, there isn't really anything to go off of. At this point, I'm inclined to just vote Quaraezha. He hasn't said anything in forever, and what little he did say had virtually no substance. Lurking is generally a null-tell, but a lurking townie still isn't much use anyway. I'd like to at least see his opinion on things.
I agree with no lynch for the same reason. We could take the chance, but it would be the same as taking a chance to lynch aux roles. So far, I don't have a clear thought on who could be mafia...
Who should we lynch:
As I said above, I don't have a clear opinion for myself. We could try the Wojjan voting thing, but it's hard to believe Wojjan would try to defence by role claiming that could or couldn't be her role. I'll be happy to go for no lynch at this point.
Who should we lynch:
As I said above, I don't have a clear opinion for myself. We could try the Wojjan voting thing, but it's hard to believe Wojjan would try to defence by role claiming that could or couldn't be her role. I'll be happy to go for no lynch at this point.
As mentioned before though, the chance of a secret doublevoter could cause Wojjan to appear to be lying when he's not. Don't know how likely that is, but it could end quite badly if that was the case and we lynched him tomorrow.
Also, Wojjan is totally a guy.
Also, Wojjan is totally a guy.
those percentages are assuming we lynch a random person every day
it looks a lot different if you factor in the unmeasurable
it looks a lot different if you factor in the unmeasurable
Well yeah of course the percentages aren't exact due to incalculable variables, but the point is that given information we have available to us right now, a lynch tonight gives us better odds than a no lynch in the long run. This doesn't take night actions into account though, so the question is if another night for night actions is worth knocking off a shot at lynching the mafia.Two wrote:
those percentages are assuming we lynch a random person every day
it looks a lot different if you factor in the unmeasurable
Which is a tough call seeing as we have no idea what the setup is like.
Throwing down thoughts as they come to me.
Going by your numbers, we have a 4/15 chance of hitting scum (if there is an SK), 4/15 chance of hitting an aux role and 7/15 to hitting a vanilla if we lynch now. If we lynch later and assume an SK is on the loose and vanillas were killed, we'll have a 4/13 to hitting scum, 4/13 to hit an aux role and a 5/13 to hit a vanilla.
Looking at that we're going to have the same relative chance of hitting an aux/mafia on both situations but down 2 townies by the first lynch. This is all relative to aux roles though but the fact remains that we'll be in a no better position to hit mafia relative to hitting an aux in that situation.
Actually - Let's take a step back. If we do a no lynch with no SK and no successful block, the chance that the mafia will hit an aux would be 4/12 and a 100% chance of a townie dead. Then on our first lynch, we'll have a 3/14 chance (a measly 1.5% increase) to hit a mafia and then lose another townie/aux.
With a lynch we'll at least have a 3/15 chance to hit a mafia then they'll have a 4/11 chance of hitting an aux role (100% for townie). So they'll get an 11% extra chance (assuming miss-lynch) to hit an aux while we'll have a 20% chance to hit one of them. (obviously 100% chance to kill a townie)
Also on a side note, even if we no lynch, there is no guarantee that our cop will turn up a favourable result. Especially in the presence of possible miller roles which might lead to more/possible miss-lynches.
Not sure if that makes sense to anyone... but I'm leaning towards a lynch but I don't know who to lynch just yet.
If I really had to choose it'd come down to a random vote, I'm not convinced that Wojjan or animask are mafia just yet.
And of course, there are the variables which can't be controlled that'll skew things.
Going by your numbers, we have a 4/15 chance of hitting scum (if there is an SK), 4/15 chance of hitting an aux role and 7/15 to hitting a vanilla if we lynch now. If we lynch later and assume an SK is on the loose and vanillas were killed, we'll have a 4/13 to hitting scum, 4/13 to hit an aux role and a 5/13 to hit a vanilla.
Looking at that we're going to have the same relative chance of hitting an aux/mafia on both situations but down 2 townies by the first lynch. This is all relative to aux roles though but the fact remains that we'll be in a no better position to hit mafia relative to hitting an aux in that situation.
Actually - Let's take a step back. If we do a no lynch with no SK and no successful block, the chance that the mafia will hit an aux would be 4/12 and a 100% chance of a townie dead. Then on our first lynch, we'll have a 3/14 chance (a measly 1.5% increase) to hit a mafia and then lose another townie/aux.
With a lynch we'll at least have a 3/15 chance to hit a mafia then they'll have a 4/11 chance of hitting an aux role (100% for townie). So they'll get an 11% extra chance (assuming miss-lynch) to hit an aux while we'll have a 20% chance to hit one of them. (obviously 100% chance to kill a townie)
Also on a side note, even if we no lynch, there is no guarantee that our cop will turn up a favourable result. Especially in the presence of possible miller roles which might lead to more/possible miss-lynches.
Not sure if that makes sense to anyone... but I'm leaning towards a lynch but I don't know who to lynch just yet.
If I really had to choose it'd come down to a random vote, I'm not convinced that Wojjan or animask are mafia just yet.
And of course, there are the variables which can't be controlled that'll skew things.
Topic Starter
VOTE COUNT
animask (4) - adam2046, Wojjan, Mashley, pieguy1372
Mashley (1) - Two
Not Voting (10) - Quaraezha, animask, naptime, LadySuburu, DeathxShinigami, Lybydose, intermu, 0_o, bmin11, Rantai
WITH 15 ALIVE, IT TAKES 8 TO HAMMER.
DEADLINE IS IN 1 DAY
animask (4) - adam2046, Wojjan, Mashley, pieguy1372
Mashley (1) - Two
Not Voting (10) - Quaraezha, animask, naptime, LadySuburu, DeathxShinigami, Lybydose, intermu, 0_o, bmin11, Rantai
WITH 15 ALIVE, IT TAKES 8 TO HAMMER.
DEADLINE IS IN 1 DAY
naptime
Ha and I'm apparently pulling numbers out of my ass.
3% not 11%.
3% not 11%.
vote: Quaraezha
Sorry guys, really am, guess I really can't handle too many mafia games.
(I'll be more active in the other Mafia threads soon)
So I'll probably ask to be replaced by rust.
(I'll be more active in the other Mafia threads soon)
So I'll probably ask to be replaced by rust.
Vote: Quaraezha
Doesn't really matter what happens to your character at this point anyways...
Doesn't really matter what happens to your character at this point anyways...
Well then, I'll Vote: Quaraezha as well. So you'll need 4 more votes to kill him off.
Topic Starter
VOTE COUNT
Quaraezha (5) - naptime, Lybydose, Two, DeathxShinigami, Wojjan
animask (3) - adam2046, Mashley, pieguy1372
Not Voting (7) - Quaraezha, animask, LadySuburu, intermu, 0_o, bmin11, Rantai
WITH 15 ALIVE, IT TAKES 8 TO HAMMER.
DEADLINE IS IN AROUND 10 HOURS
Quaraezha (5) - naptime, Lybydose, Two, DeathxShinigami, Wojjan
animask (3) - adam2046, Mashley, pieguy1372
Not Voting (7) - Quaraezha, animask, LadySuburu, intermu, 0_o, bmin11, Rantai
WITH 15 ALIVE, IT TAKES 8 TO HAMMER.
DEADLINE IS IN AROUND 10 HOURS
animask (4) - adam2046, Mashley, pieguy1372Is this a mistake?
He probably counted my vote for animask by mistake (I unvoted)
But it wouldn't hurt to ask was that a mistake, NoHItter?
But it wouldn't hurt to ask
was that a mistake, NoHItter?
Topic Starter
Yes it was.
Fixed.
Fixed.
Vote: Quaraezha
Hammer time?
He's never really useful anyways.
Hammer time?
He's never really useful anyways.
Perfect reasoning right here.animask wrote:
Vote: Quaraezha
Hammer time?
He's never really useful anyways.
What's with the sudden bandwagon? If you're going to lynch someone without solid reasoning at least lynch someone who's actively disruptive towards the town ie animask
unvote
I'm not so sure Quaraezha is mafia, but of all the players I think he's the most suspicious. vote: Quaraezha
I'm not so sure Quaraezha is mafia, but of all the players I think he's the most suspicious. vote: Quaraezha
Vote: Quaraezha
Let's see if Wojjan was lying.
Let's see if Wojjan was lying.
Topic Starter
FINAL VOTE COUNT OF THE DAY
Quaraezha (8) - naptime, Lybydose, Two, DeathxShinigami, Wojjan, animask, pieguy1372, Rantai
animask (2) - adam2046, Mashley
Not Voting (5) - Quaraezha, LadySuburu, intermu, 0_o, bmin11
Quaraezha has been lynched.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
"So guys. That bomb didn't set-up by itselfs. Let's go lynch someone!"
"But who do we lynch we don't have a lead at all?"
"Let's go lynch someone!"
"Yeah... I already said that, but who do we lynch?"
"Yeah... I already said that."
A silence engulfed everyone. Why was that person only echoing what others were saying?
"Oh fine. It's because I was given some talking restriction by the mod."
"By who?"
"The mod. Don't think about it. You're just breaking the fourth wall. Anyway, since I broke it, my vote won't count."
"Votes?"
"Just accept it."
"By the way guys, Quaraezha seems to be sleeping and not participating."
"Let's lynch him! I'll be voting him now."
Soon, eight people including the one whose vote wasn't supposed to count voted Quaraezha.
As if by some outside intervention, Quaraezha was then led to the tree that everyone knew was cut partly, and his sleeping body was placed next to it. It seemed as no one was in control of their body, and just accepted the fact that Quaraezha was to be lynched.
A small push was made and the tree fell down on Quaraezha.
By the time everyone snapped back to their senses, it was too late. Quaraezha was dead - crushed by the tree. More importantly, the lynch occurred.
Quaraezha - Townie - crushed by a tree - DAY 1. (Lynched)
"Wait a minute. How do we know that Quaraezha was really a townie?"
"I don't know either, but it's best if we not break the fourth wall. Anyway it's Night."
"Huh? Last I check it was still noon..."
Suddenly, the sun skimmed through the horizon and was now setting. Night would begin soon.
"Nevermind..."
IT IS NOW NIGHT 1. ALL ACTIONS MUST BE SENT IN 48 HOURS.
Quaraezha (8) - naptime, Lybydose, Two, DeathxShinigami, Wojjan, animask, pieguy1372, Rantai
animask (2) - adam2046, Mashley
Not Voting (5) - Quaraezha, LadySuburu, intermu, 0_o, bmin11
Quaraezha has been lynched.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
"So guys. That bomb didn't set-up by itselfs. Let's go lynch someone!"
"But who do we lynch we don't have a lead at all?"
"Let's go lynch someone!"
"Yeah... I already said that, but who do we lynch?"
"Yeah... I already said that."
A silence engulfed everyone. Why was that person only echoing what others were saying?
"Oh fine. It's because I was given some talking restriction by the mod."
"By who?"
"The mod. Don't think about it. You're just breaking the fourth wall. Anyway, since I broke it, my vote won't count."
"Votes?"
"Just accept it."
"By the way guys, Quaraezha seems to be sleeping and not participating."
"Let's lynch him! I'll be voting him now."
Soon, eight people including the one whose vote wasn't supposed to count voted Quaraezha.
As if by some outside intervention, Quaraezha was then led to the tree that everyone knew was cut partly, and his sleeping body was placed next to it. It seemed as no one was in control of their body, and just accepted the fact that Quaraezha was to be lynched.
A small push was made and the tree fell down on Quaraezha.
By the time everyone snapped back to their senses, it was too late. Quaraezha was dead - crushed by the tree. More importantly, the lynch occurred.
Quaraezha - Townie - crushed by a tree - DAY 1. (Lynched)
"Wait a minute. How do we know that Quaraezha was really a townie?"
"I don't know either, but it's best if we not break the fourth wall. Anyway it's Night."
"Huh? Last I check it was still noon..."
Suddenly, the sun skimmed through the horizon and was now setting. Night would begin soon.
"Nevermind..."
IT IS NOW NIGHT 1. ALL ACTIONS MUST BE SENT IN 48 HOURS.
Topic Starter
All Night Actions have been sent.
Day 2 is now starting.
The previous night, 0_o was busy constructing some sort of dummy. It was made to fool people into believing he was asleep. This night, he was in the middle of the forest - constructing some sort of cage. There the victims would be safe, but they won't be able to go anywhere.
"Hold it!" Suddenly there was a voice.
0_o was caught off guard. "Who is it?"
"Why aren't you in the shelter?"
"Uhh I was busy building something... Why are you here Two?"
Two emerged from the bushes. "Nothing. Just doing something."
0_o turned around. "Well I suggest you go back. You have no business he--"
A gunshot echoed through the forest.
"Bye 0_o. Shame I couldn't use this in the shelter - it would be too loud. Lucky for me you ventured out this deep in the forest."
"Actually, lucky for me that YOU ventured out of the forest."
Two turned around, pointing his gun at the target. It was another person - the face was covered by darkness.
"Who are you? I have a gun - don't even bothe--"
Another gunshot echoed through the forest. The figure picked up the gun that Two was holding.
'You had a gun, but I was faster. Now I have two guns."
The next day, 0_o and Two was found missing. naptime was especially worried about Two. Everyone ventured out of the forest and saw the place where 0_o was building the makeshift cage. There were two bodies present. One was the body of 0_o with a bullet through the head. The other was the body of Two with a sharpened wooden stick stabbed through his chest. Though there were bomb blueprints in his pockets. naptime was no where to be found.
As everyone else carried the bodies to the shelter, they saw naptime hanging by the neck from a tree. There was a note crumpled up in naptime's hand. "Goodbye Two. I will kill myselftwo err too!"
0_o - Jailkeeper - shot in the head - NIGHT 1. (Nightkilled)
Two - Mafia Lover - stabbed in the chest - NIGHT 1 (Nightkilled)
naptime - Town Lover - suicide by hanging - NIGHT 1 (Role-required Death)
With three dead bodies in the mix, they were down to 11. There had to be culprits for these crimes!
DAY 2 HAS NOW STARTED.
DEADLINE IS IN ONE WEEK.
WITH 11 ALIVE, IT TAKES 6 TO HAMMER.
Day 2 is now starting.
The previous night, 0_o was busy constructing some sort of dummy. It was made to fool people into believing he was asleep. This night, he was in the middle of the forest - constructing some sort of cage. There the victims would be safe, but they won't be able to go anywhere.
"Hold it!" Suddenly there was a voice.
0_o was caught off guard. "Who is it?"
"Why aren't you in the shelter?"
"Uhh I was busy building something... Why are you here Two?"
Two emerged from the bushes. "Nothing. Just doing something."
0_o turned around. "Well I suggest you go back. You have no business he--"
A gunshot echoed through the forest.
"Bye 0_o. Shame I couldn't use this in the shelter - it would be too loud. Lucky for me you ventured out this deep in the forest."
"Actually, lucky for me that YOU ventured out of the forest."
Two turned around, pointing his gun at the target. It was another person - the face was covered by darkness.
"Who are you? I have a gun - don't even bothe--"
Another gunshot echoed through the forest. The figure picked up the gun that Two was holding.
'You had a gun, but I was faster. Now I have two guns."
The next day, 0_o and Two was found missing. naptime was especially worried about Two. Everyone ventured out of the forest and saw the place where 0_o was building the makeshift cage. There were two bodies present. One was the body of 0_o with a bullet through the head. The other was the body of Two with a sharpened wooden stick stabbed through his chest. Though there were bomb blueprints in his pockets. naptime was no where to be found.
As everyone else carried the bodies to the shelter, they saw naptime hanging by the neck from a tree. There was a note crumpled up in naptime's hand. "Goodbye Two. I will kill myself
0_o - Jailkeeper - shot in the head - NIGHT 1. (Nightkilled)
Two - Mafia Lover - stabbed in the chest - NIGHT 1 (Nightkilled)
naptime - Town Lover - suicide by hanging - NIGHT 1 (Role-required Death)
With three dead bodies in the mix, they were down to 11. There had to be culprits for these crimes!
DAY 2 HAS NOW STARTED.
DEADLINE IS IN ONE WEEK.
WITH 11 ALIVE, IT TAKES 6 TO HAMMER.
You what.
Conclusion: Wojjan is either Mafia or Jester.Wojjan wrote:
Well fuck this.
Vote: Wojjan
So, Wojjan was lying.
But why?
Inb4 Jester -.-
But why?
Inb4 Jester -.-
Wojjan is a lover too~
With a mafia lover...
(Or mafia with townie lover)
With a mafia lover...
(Or mafia with townie lover)
love you too.animask wrote:
Wojjan is a lover too~
With a mafia lover...
(Or mafia with townie lover)
So....
Vote: Wojjan
Vote: Wojjan
I'm guessing we're probably not going to get a lot of information from Wojjan...
You ok with a possible jester win?LadySuburu wrote:
Vote: Wojjan
As terms to what I think, 90% chance mafia and 10% chance jester.adam2046 wrote:
I'm guessing we're probably not going to get a lot of information from Wojjan...You ok with a possible jester win?LadySuburu wrote:
Vote: Wojjan
I doubt jester win will end the game, most of the time it doesn't. Worst case if it doesn't is it's basically a mis-lynch.
Unless you have a better plan, or can give me a better argument towards another player being mafia?
Well, I'm normally all for voting someone who votes themselves, but I'd like to wait until we're at least half way into the day before we start piling votes onto people.
I'm not too keen on winning with a jester either.
I'm not too keen on winning with a jester either.
Concluding that it has to be one of the two. Wanna back up this conclusion?LadySuburu wrote:
Conclusion: Wojjan is either Mafia or Jester.
I can't think of any other roles that would say "Screw it." and vote themselves, based on what's happened so far. (Remember, this is Wojjan. If it were some random player, I might believe him being town giving up for some strange reason.)adam2046 wrote:
Well, I'm normally all for voting someone who votes themselves, but I'd like to wait until we're at least half way into the day before we start piling votes onto people.
I'm not too keen on winning with a jester either.Concluding that it has to be one of the two. Wanna back up this conclusion?LadySuburu wrote:
Conclusion: Wojjan is either Mafia or Jester.
Can you think of another reason?
I find it unlikely that Wojjan would vote hermself as some crazy ploy on only the second day. All it would take is a cop to find out what Wojjan actually has.
Nothing's really stopping the host from creating new roles.
The people I'm currently most suspicious of are Suburu, Wojjan and animask (due to his "helpful" posts and his rolefishing and his insistance on being town and for implying I'm mafia for voting him(also I don't like his posts in general (and he stinks))).
Nothing's really stopping the host from creating new roles.
The people I'm currently most suspicious of are Suburu, Wojjan and animask (due to his "helpful" posts and his rolefishing and his insistance on being town and for implying I'm mafia for voting him(also I don't like his posts in general (and he stinks))).
Mind explaining more on the first two?adam2046 wrote:
The people I'm currently most suspicious of are Suburu, Wojjan and animask (due to his "helpful" posts and his rolefishing and his insistance on being town and for implying I'm mafia for voting him(also I don't like his posts in general (and he stinks))).
Subu knows I'm a jester because he's mafia. You already stated to know that I'm anti-town. The only reason you ask adam for clarification is testing the waters to see how he thinks of you.
Now I'm even more sure you're mafia, as opposed to a jester. Nice scumpainting attempt.Wojjan wrote:
Subu knows I'm a jester because he's mafia. You already stated to know that I'm anti-town. The only reason you ask adam for clarification is testing the waters to see how he thinks of you.
So, might as well say what I've been thinking since I doubt I'll get any more useful comments out of adam.
Wojjan is mafia, who knows he's screwed from what happened D1, as well as already losing a teammate. Basically gives up (Or is attempting a gambit, but I'm not sure what the goal of such a gambit would be.)
adam is also mafia, who is trying to distance himself from Wojjan. He's attempting to paint me as scum without really saying anything, and also riding on what was one of the easy lynch targets from D1, animask. Therefore, he has two easy targets and a third to back up on if he can get enough "Evidence" to show that I'm scum.
I think this quote is pretty dang fitting. He kinda sat around Day one, not really saying much (Except when he could get animask to post again, since most of animask's statements in every single game are suspicious.) He basically tried to turn everything animask said into saying that he's scum.adam2046 wrote:
Well it would be nice if animask could post somethingmore incriminatingin reply.
I'm not going to pretend I was active much of D1 either. Other than my mini-rage against two, I barely posted any content as well. I also saw animask as suspicious, but I wasn't jumping on every little thing he said in order to paint him as scum. I wasn't sure enough that he wasn't just acting the same as in his first game.
----------------
1. So, why did Wojjan vote himself?adam2046 wrote:
I find it unlikely that Wojjan would vote hermself as some crazy ploy on only the second day. All it would take is a cop to find out what Wojjan actually has.
Nothing's really stopping the host from creating new roles.
2. Role speculation here, but judging by the results of the lynch and the deaths at night, plus the fact that it's NoHItter running the game (Who was constantly complaining to me about the no-unvote mechanic from HNM1), I'm going to go ahead and say it's safe to assume that we're just using generic roles here.
vote: Wojjan
I don't necessarily think Wojjan is mafia. It seems like he's acting suspicious on purpose, like he wants to be lynched, so I bet he's a jester.
That said, animask seemed to be doing the same thing yesterday, and I highly doubt there's two jesters. Perhaps one is a jester and one is mafia. At this point it becomes WIFOM (I'm mafia and I'll make people think I'm a jester so they vote the other person). However, it could just be that animask didn't know what he was doing yesterday. Either way I'm going to go the other way and vote animask.
That said, animask seemed to be doing the same thing yesterday, and I highly doubt there's two jesters. Perhaps one is a jester and one is mafia. At this point it becomes WIFOM (I'm mafia and I'll make people think I'm a jester so they vote the other person). However, it could just be that animask didn't know what he was doing yesterday. Either way I'm going to go the other way and vote animask.
I focus on animask because his playing style pisses me off.
mafia buddies, man.
You're making some pretty definite statements here Sububu.
I would like you to point out what I've said that makes me so definitely mafia, so far the only the only thing you've got is my blatant dislike for animask's behavior.
2. I think we're probably using standard roles too, but I'm not ruling out the possibility of there being a new role or a slight variation on a standard role.
Gee, thanks for suddenly saying that everything I say from now on is useless. I thought we wereLadySuburu wrote:
So, might as well say what I've been thinking since I doubt I'll get any more useful comments out of adam.
You're making some pretty definite statements here Sububu.
You say that I'm scum painting you, but you're not even including the possibility of me being town in your posts now.LadySuburu wrote:
Wojjan is mafia, who knows he's screwed from what happened D1, as well as already losing a teammate.
adam is also mafia, who is trying to distance himself from Wojjan. He's attempting to paint me as scum without really saying anything
I would like you to point out what I've said that makes me so definitely mafia, so far the only the only thing you've got is my blatant dislike for animask's behavior.
1. I don't know. I simply do not know, you do not know. Why don't we just ask?LadySuburu wrote:
1. So, why did Wojjan vote himself?
2. Role speculation here, but judging by the results of the lynch and the deaths at night, plus the fact that it's NoHItter running the game (Who was constantly complaining to me about the no-unvote mechanic from HNM1), I'm going to go ahead and say it's safe to assume that we're just using generic roles here.
2. I think we're probably using standard roles too, but I'm not ruling out the possibility of there being a new role or a slight variation on a standard role.
Useless comments: You aren't explaining much of anything when you post, and you haven't answered all my questions yet either.adam2046 wrote:
I focus on animask because his playing style pisses me off.
Gee, thanks for suddenly saying that everything I say from now on is useless. I thought we weremafiabuddies, man.
You're making some pretty definite statements here Sububu.
You say that I'm scum painting you, but you're not even including the possibility of me being town in your posts now.
I would like you to point out what I've said that makes me so definitely mafia, so far the only the only thing you've got is my blatant dislike for animask's behavior.
1. I don't know. I simply do not know, you do not know. Why don't we just ask?
2. I think we're probably using standard roles too, but I'm not ruling out the possibility of there being a new role or a slight variation on a standard role.
I didn't include the possibility because, as I stated before I said what I said, that's what I'm thinking. I don't belive that it's true that you're town, so I didn't include it, since I wasn't thinking it. Even more so, I REALLY don't belive it to be true that Wojjan is town.
I believe you're mafia because of what I said about animask, and that you've really not posting much content or explaining anything. I don't buy that you're focusing on him ONLY because you dislike his playing style. That might be part of the reason, but I doubt it's really all. If it is, then are you fine with just lynching people based on playstyles that each of us dislike? I don't see that as a good strategy.
As for why we don't ask, I'm sure we won't get a truthful answer out of Wojjan.
I'm not fine with that.LadySuburu wrote:
I believe you're mafia because of what I said about animask, and that you've really not posting much content or explaining anything. I don't buy that you're focusing on him ONLY because you dislike his playing style. That might be part of the reason, but I doubt it's really all. If it is, then are you fine with just lynching people based on playstyles that each of us dislike? I don't see that as a good strategy.
I'll make an exception for animask though.
I really don't like the way animask has decided to play the game. Because he is the least helpful person ever. Almost as useless as the people who haven't posted today Hint hint guys. Post something.
Which ones did I miss?LadySuburu wrote:
Useless comments: You aren't explaining much of anything when you post, and you haven't answered all my questions yet either.
Hey Wojjan, why'd you vote yourself?
LadySuburu wrote:
Mind explaining more on the first two?adam2046 wrote:
The people I'm currently most suspicious of are Suburu, Wojjan and animask (due to his "helpful" posts and his rolefishing and his insistance on being town and for implying I'm mafia for voting him(also I don't like his posts in general (and he stinks))).
Wojjan self voted, I find this suspicious enough by itself.
You because you're slightly more aggressive than I would expect.
No one else because they're not even participating.
HINT HINT GUYS
And no, voting blindly does not count as active participation.
You because you're slightly more aggressive than I would expect.
No one else because they're not even participating.
HINT HINT GUYS
And no, voting blindly does not count as active participation.