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An osu! Mafia 2 - SERIAL KILLER / JESTER WIN

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NoHitter
osu! Alumni
3,785 posts
Joined June 2009
Topic Starter
NoHitter
VOTE COUNT
Lybydose (2) - Rantai, Two
Two (2) - DeathxShinigami, LadySuburu
animask (2) - bmin11,adam2046
Rantai (1) - Wojjan
adam2046 (1) - Mashley
Mashley (1) - Lybydose
Ph0x (1) - intermu
intermu (1) - 0_o

Not Voting (4) - Quaraezha, animask, naptime, Ph0x

WITH 15 ALIVE, IT TAKES 8 TO HAMMER.
0_o
2,155 posts
Joined December 2008
0_o

Two wrote:

uh if you really think you know who the doctor etc. is, why would you post that
The ones he pointed out were the ones who said that they liked the respective roles the least. It looks like he was giving advice to them for future games, as well as the current auxes for this game, whoever they may be.

..though almost everyone he gave advice to has more mafia experience than he does. So that's mildly amusing.

In case of a counter-claim, you could vote yourself and say that you're going to be NK'd anyways by the mafia. (idk if this works)
As long as you get lynched, it will reveal you are the actual cop, so you serve your purpose and the counter-claim will be sus(s).
Once lynched, people will believe you and

Oh wait, now idk if this is a good thing or not...
Yeahhhhhhh no don't do that.
Sleep Powder
1,540 posts
Joined October 2008
Sleep Powder
@0_o, you seem to get what I meant by my post. I don't even know if there is a doctor or a cop in this game.

@adam, does your vote for me have any reasoning or are you avoiding the reasoning so I have no way to defend myself?
If its about my last statement, you are assuming too quickly. If I was not mafia, the mafia would benefit from this and use this as
evidence to vote for me. You might also think that the mafia would benefit from somewhat telling the doctor/cop what to do.
This would make it easier to predict who they would be, but this is just information rather than instruction. A lot of people
like to think that most aux roles act with that kind of behavior.

@Two, I don't know if we even have a doctor/cop or not. Are you one of them?
Two_old
620 posts
Joined March 2008
Two_old
vote: animask
LadySuburu
80 posts
Joined June 2008
LadySuburu
Unvote

HoS: Animask

I thought you would've learned your lesson the first time you rolefished. What's your reasoning for doing so this game?
adam2046
1,653 posts
Joined April 2008
adam2046

animask wrote:

@0_o, you seem to get what I meant by my post. I don't even know if there is a doctor or a cop in this game.

@adam, blah blah blah (I have no idea what you're saying)

@Two, Rolefishem
LadySuburu
80 posts
Joined June 2008
LadySuburu
I saw that post defending animask, Mashley. Deleting posts >:(.

Unfortunately, I don't have a screenshot.

FoS: Mashley.
adam2046
1,653 posts
Joined April 2008
adam2046
I'm not really sure what animask is trying to do, but it doesn't seem suspicious to me. In the last game (HNM) he posted very short posts and acted weirdly defensive. In that game, he obviously had something to hide as he ended up being the Doctor. Judging by his much longer posts here, I'd guess that in this game he's vanilla; though of course he may have gained more experience since that game.
LadySuburu
80 posts
Joined June 2008
LadySuburu

adam2046 wrote:

I'm not really sure what animask is trying to do, but it doesn't seem suspicious to me. In the last game (HNM) he posted very short posts and acted weirdly defensive. In that game, he obviously had something to hide as he ended up being the Doctor. Judging by his much longer posts here, I'd guess that in this game he's vanilla; though of course he may have gained more experience since that game.
Thank you.
Mashley
2,042 posts
Joined September 2008
Mashley
fkhagfiefbisf I posted it then realised none of it actually made sense, I'd remembered the last game wrongly
Sleep Powder
1,540 posts
Joined October 2008
Sleep Powder
Reckless Townie Mode Activated
*beep*----*beep*-----*beep*

@adam, what if I was actually a townie? Why are you trying so hard to accuse me?
Also, to put my post more simply. Mafia should want to be voting for me because I'm suspicious and have scum tells.
You are voting for me (with few reasoning).

Also, I wasn't rolefishing. I was actually accusing Two of having an aux role.
What's rolefishing defined as exactly?

@Mashley, hes probably trying to defend me, because he has an idea of my playing style by now
while adam doesn't. Also, why are you so suspicious?

I don't care if whatever I say can be turned into a scum tell.
Players think that others are mafia/town/aux because of tells.
I forge my own tells instead of relying on the commonly accepted ones.
They have worked a few times before.

I'm a unique townie.

I'm the...reckless townie.
adam2046
1,653 posts
Joined April 2008
adam2046
I'm voting you because you're silly.
Rolefishing is fishing for roles of any sort. Asking questions in order to find someone's role out or tricking a person into revealing their role etc. It is not good for the town.
You also seem to be making yourself into a victim. I'm not accusing you of anything you're not actually doing. I simply gave a vote with vague reasoning and now you're building a fortress to defend yourself from stones.
And your fortress is made out of Play-Doh.
Lybydose
osu! Alumni
2,024 posts
Joined January 2009
Lybydose

animask wrote:

I don't care if whatever I say can be turned into a scum tell.
Players think that others are mafia/town/aux because of tells.
I forge my own tells instead of relying on the commonly accepted ones.
They have worked a few times before.
That doesn't make ANY sense. You aren't forging your own tells, you're just doing like a hundred common scummy things.

unvote

FoS animask

Oh, and being a reckless townie is completely useless for the town; you're more likely to be a detriment than you are to help.
DeathxShinigami
1,176 posts
Joined November 2008
DeathxShinigami
No wonder I was pushing for a lynch on animask in the previous mafia game LS hosted...

Stop being reckless~

unvote
bmin11
5,438 posts
Joined October 2008
bmin11
Unvote since my vote against animask was RVS

FoS animask. Why, animask why?
Wojjan
806 posts
Joined August 2008
Wojjan

Wojjan wrote:

vote: animask

I really really hate you.
Last edited by Wojjan , edited 1 time in total.
Sleep Powder
1,540 posts
Joined October 2008
Sleep Powder

bmin11 wrote:

Unvote since my vote against animask was RVS

FoS animask. Why, animask why?
I'm sacrificing myself for the townies.
Too bad there's too much scum being thrown at me.
At least my plan is working. <--- See it?
bmin11
5,438 posts
Joined October 2008
bmin11

animask wrote:

bmin11 wrote:

Unvote since my vote against animask was RVS

FoS animask. Why, animask why?
I'm sacrificing myself for the townies.
Too bad there's too much scum being thrown at me.
At least my plan is working. <--- See it?
How is it suppose to turn out? People just simply got a scumtell from your "reckless post" and voting for you. *sigh* I have a feeling that even you are a townie and you do survive D1, you will mistrail us again. If you are mafia? Dumb move


Vote: animask
Lybydose
osu! Alumni
2,024 posts
Joined January 2009
Lybydose

animask wrote:

bmin11 wrote:

Unvote since my vote against animask was RVS

FoS animask. Why, animask why?
I'm sacrificing myself for the townies.
Too bad there's too much scum being thrown at me.
At least my plan is working. <--- See it?
Being intentionally ambiguous is not a good defense.
0_o
2,155 posts
Joined December 2008
0_o

animask wrote:

I was actually accusing Two of having an aux role.
Why would you want that information out in the open? How does the knowledge that Two has an aux role benefit the town, and how does it not benefit the mafia? You even said yourself that cops and doctors should lay low at least til later on the game, then you turn and try to out someone as being an aux? Where is the logic here?

@Mashley, hes probably trying to defend me, because he has an idea of my playing style by now
while adam doesn't. Also, why are you so suspicious?
I'm pretty sure I speak for everyone when I say that nobody understands your playstyle. Am I wrong, anyone?
I don't care if whatever I say can be turned into a scum tell.
Well you should, because guess what, the most suspicious person usually gets lynched, and if you're a townie you're only giving the mafia an easy scapegoat.
Players think that others are mafia/town/aux because of tells.
I forge my own tells instead of relying on the commonly accepted ones.
They have worked a few times before.
Here's the thing. Sure there are some general rules of thumb, but everybody has their own opinions on what's a scumtell and what isn't. It's not like you're the only one who thinks for themselves when deciding whether someone is scum or not.
I'm a unique townie.
I'm sorry, I couldn't not post this:
0_o
2,155 posts
Joined December 2008
0_o
I reallllly want to vote animask but gah, he is just coming off to me as a clueless newbie like last game...
intermu
415 posts
Joined November 2009
intermu
jesus, a lot has happened. not able to be online for the rest o the day (as it is im rushing right now already) so will respond appropriately later

also unvote ph0x since i forgot
NoHitter
osu! Alumni
3,785 posts
Joined June 2009
Topic Starter
NoHitter
VOTE COUNT
animask (4) - adam2046, Two, Wojjan, bmin11
Lybydose (1) - Rantai
adam2046 (1) - Mashley
intermu (1) - 0_o

Not Voting (8) - Quaraezha, animask, naptime, pieguy1372, LadySuburu, DeathxShinigami, Lybydose, intermu

WITH 15 ALIVE, IT TAKES 8 TO HAMMER.
0_o
2,155 posts
Joined December 2008
0_o
Oh right, unvote intermu.
Mashley
2,042 posts
Joined September 2008
Mashley
Not unvoting because I'm just cool like that
Rantai
1,000 posts
Joined July 2010
Rantai
Oh I still have Lybydose voted?

Unvote: Lybydose

animask wrote:

I'm sacrificing myself for the townies.
Too bad there's too much scum being thrown at me.
At least my plan is working. <--- See it?
I'm trying to grasp how that works. If the basis of your plan is to weed out scum through votes against you etc but everyone is throwing them at you, how exactly is your plan working?
Two_old
620 posts
Joined March 2008
Two_old
a lot of suspicious unvoting

you guys aren't going to rush his lynch in are you
bmin11
5,438 posts
Joined October 2008
bmin11
Actually, we have 3 days left. I guess there's nothing to be hasty with our decisions.

Unvote and HoS on animask. If there aren't anything that catches my eyes, I'm voting animask and please elaborate what was your intention with your previous post, animask.
Sleep Powder
1,540 posts
Joined October 2008
Sleep Powder
Bandwagon vote. Something will happen.

A mafia member could easily slip into the bandwagon, so
you could question the votes now or just letting me get lynched to
increase the odds of hitting mafia the next Day.

Of course, Day 1 isn't the best day to be doing anything serious. I
had no idea it was when people would get the most suspicious. If I
was actually mafia, I wouldn't have done this move because it would
obviously make mafia lose the game.
DeathxShinigami
1,176 posts
Joined November 2008
DeathxShinigami
Hey, two. Ever heard of a shift key? Could be useful at times you know~
adam2046
1,653 posts
Joined April 2008
adam2046

animask wrote:

A mafia member could easily slip into the bandwagon, so
you could question the votes now or just letting me get lynched to
increase the odds of hitting mafia the next Day
Lynch townies to increase chances of finding mafia? That's brilliant, we should do that every day. This is sarcasm and is also not meant to imply that animask is a townie.

animask wrote:

If I
was actually mafia, I wouldn't have done this move because it would
obviously make mafia lose the game.
WIFOM

"Blah blah blah. I am townie. Blah blah blah. Did I mention I'm a townie. Blah blah blah. WIFOM. Bleh."
Please create a better defense as you will be lynched today at this rate.
Mashley
2,042 posts
Joined September 2008
Mashley
If it was anyone but animask I'd probably jump on the bandwagon right now, but history shows he is incapable of not being incredibly suspicious, so I'm holding off.
LadySuburu
80 posts
Joined June 2008
LadySuburu
Don't really have much to say, so basically posting to say I am here and still reading, and didn't forget this game because I'm hosting two others.

Recap:

animask still looks suspicious.
animask seems to act that way a lot, but it may just mean it's a null-tell.
I'm not convinced enough to vote for animask, but he's the highest on my list at the moment.
I don't see much else suspicious right now.
Lybydose
osu! Alumni
2,024 posts
Joined January 2009
Lybydose

animask wrote:

A mafia member could easily slip into the bandwagon, so
you could question the votes now or just letting me get lynched to
increase the odds of hitting mafia the next Day.
Or a mafia member could just as easily NOT slip into the bandwagon because every single person in the game thinks you're the most suspicious and you'll probably get lynched regardless of what the mafia do.
Two_old
620 posts
Joined March 2008
Two_old
this applies here too so

unvote

I just think that because animask says stuff like that, that if they really were mafia they'd be a lot more passive (like in the other mafia game I'm in, where they are mafia)
Wojjan
806 posts
Joined August 2008
Wojjan

Two wrote:

a lot of suspicious unvoting

you guys aren't going to rush his lynch in are you
Two_old
620 posts
Joined March 2008
Two_old
prod everyone plsssss

vote: Mashley
adam2046
1,653 posts
Joined April 2008
adam2046
Well it would be nice if animask could post something more incriminating in reply.
DeathxShinigami
1,176 posts
Joined November 2008
DeathxShinigami
Well isn't two rather frantic~ ;)

But uh, anyways everyone unvoting rather hastily? Probably just to see what the real vote total looks like...
bmin11
5,438 posts
Joined October 2008
bmin11
Again, I really want to vote animask, but my gut never agrees me. I'll have to go through the thread again orz
Lybydose
osu! Alumni
2,024 posts
Joined January 2009
Lybydose
FoS: Wojjan

You're not really even saying anything, just quoting people.
Mashley
2,042 posts
Joined September 2008
Mashley
Hi Two sup
Wojjan
806 posts
Joined August 2008
Wojjan

Lybydose wrote:

FoS: Wojjan

You're not really even saying anything, just quoting people.
Lybydose
osu! Alumni
2,024 posts
Joined January 2009
Lybydose
this guy
Lybydose
osu! Alumni
2,024 posts
Joined January 2009
Lybydose
also relaying this message from LS in the other thread:

LadySuburu wrote:

Posting to say I have limited internet access (PS3 when I do.) until mon/tues. Will check on threads when I do have access but posting is difficult. If someone would pass this message on in the other two threads that would be great.
Wojjan
806 posts
Joined August 2008
Wojjan

Dumb role god damnit wrote:

It's a posting quirk. I'm supposed to get a message when I break it, so I'm testing the limits in risk of losing my vote.
0_o
2,155 posts
Joined December 2008
0_o

Wojjan wrote:

Dumb role god damnit wrote:

It's a posting quirk. I'm supposed to get a message when I break it, so I'm testing the limits in risk of losing my vote.
How come you weren't quoting anything at the beginning of the day?
Lybydose
osu! Alumni
2,024 posts
Joined January 2009
Lybydose
I kind of figured that, but you had two previous posts that weren't direct quotes (your vote and your preference of claiming fool).
Lybydose
osu! Alumni
2,024 posts
Joined January 2009
Lybydose
doublepost:

Assuming you're allowed to vote without directly quoting someone (but you've now edited it to quote...yourself?), that still doesn't explain the first one.
Wojjan
806 posts
Joined August 2008
Wojjan
It got imposed on me during the day. I don't know of any mafia role that can give people typing quirks.

Anyways, I've broken my conduct with the last post, so my vote will still show up on tallies, but not be counted towards the end result. I thought maybe quoting my vote would help (as much as editing posts is discouraged) but I really doubt it.
Lybydose
osu! Alumni
2,024 posts
Joined January 2009
Lybydose
There is a way to see if Wojjan is lying, but it's a bit of a gambit. If what he says is true, he now has a phantom ghost on animask: it shows that he's voting, but doesn't actually count.

If 7 other people vote for animask, he will hit 8 votes, normally enough for a hammer. If Wojjan is telling the truth, animask won't get lynched immediately though, and then we can all just unvote. On the other hand, if Wojjan is lying, animask will get lynched at 8 and hey, we found our first mafioso: it's Wojjan.

There's the possibility of a mafioso hammering animask when he's at 8 votes (7 when you consider Wojjan's vote). That would be stupid though, we would just lynch whoever was bad enough to cast the 8th non-Wojjan vote. No sane townie would cast the hammering vote in this situation; you can't WIFOM your way out of that one.

There is some risk though. What if there are doublevoters? Doublevoters are town and know they can doublevote though, so they would just hold off from voting. If this were the case, we would waste the next day chasing Wojjan.

It's risky, but there's no much to go on D1. A townie usually gets lynched D1 either way.

Thoughts?
Lybydose
osu! Alumni
2,024 posts
Joined January 2009
Lybydose
missed a sentence up there about doublevoters. Should read like this:

blahblah doublevoters. However, there might be doublevoters that don't know about their power and end up killing animask with votes. If this were the case, we would waste the next day chasing Wojjan.
0_o
2,155 posts
Joined December 2008
0_o
Alright, read through the thread again, and there were two posts in particular that kinda rubbed me the wrong way. They're relatively weaker points, but we really can't expect conclusive evidence on Day 1 so I'm just going with what I got.

intermu wrote:

It's the usual first day voting!

Vote: Ph0x

Don't want to let people feel left out ;)
Pointing out that it was "the usual first day voting" before casting his RVS vote seemed a bit shifty. It wasn't necessary, and it kinda gave me the impression that he gave that extra explanation to his vote because he was paranoid of looking suspicious (which mafia tend to be).

adam2046 wrote:

Vote: 0_o
Acting like a defeatist is a good sign of being scum or really bad under pressure.
This was a response to my post here. My post was a pretty obvious joke, and seeing as adam is usually one to joke around a lot on day 1 (and 2, and 3), his attack on me seemed out of character.

Like I said, they aren't great points, but I don't have a whole lot else to go on at the moment.

So FoS on adam & intermu
adam2046
1,653 posts
Joined April 2008
adam2046

0_o wrote:

adam2046 wrote:

Vote: 0_o
Acting like a defeatist is a good sign of being scum or really bad under pressure.
This was a response to my post here. My post was a pretty obvious joke, and seeing as adam is usually one to joke around a lot on day 1 (and 2, and 3), his attack on me seemed out of character.
Cheap THIS IS SRS joke in response to joke post.
...Am I still voting you?
0_o
2,155 posts
Joined December 2008
0_o

Lyby wrote:

get animask to 8 votes to see if Wojjan is telling the truth
Interesting idea, though like you said, even if he was lynched at 8 we still wouldn't know for sure whether he was lying or not due to the possibility of secret doublevoters. We would be able to prove if he's telling the truth, but not if he's lying.
I'm just not sure if I want to risk lynching animask for it though. I'm feeling animask as pro-town at the moment, and even if Wojjan is telling the truth about his votelessness, that doesn't guarantee that he's pro-town. He could be a voteless mafia member who's trying to cover up his lack of vote for all we know. Risking a lynch just to see if Wojjan really is voteless just doesn't seem like it's worth the risk to me.

adam2046 wrote:

Cheap THIS IS SRS joke in response to joke post.
...Am I still voting you?
You're voting animask I think.

Don't blame me though, blame plaintext's inability to convey subtle sarcastic cues.
0_o
2,155 posts
Joined December 2008
0_o
Alright guys I'm gonna be moving in the next couple days, so I probably won't get a whole lot of opportunities to post. I'll try to keep up as much as I can, but I likely won't be able to be very active til ~1 day before the lynch.

Don't do anything stupid ^_^
Sleep Powder
1,540 posts
Joined October 2008
Sleep Powder
Wojjan is a girl.

I'm part of an experiment? Wojjan might be (townie)aux/mafia based on your reasoning. Both of
those roles have reasons to lie. Then again, the risk isn't too high is it? I'll wait for more input
from everybody else. (I don't get to decide if we're doing this or not, do I?)
Two_old
620 posts
Joined March 2008
Two_old

Lybydose wrote:

There is a way to see if Wojjan is lying, but it's a bit of a gambit. If what he says is true, he now has a phantom ghost on animask: it shows that he's voting, but doesn't actually count.

If 7 other people vote for animask, he will hit 8 votes, normally enough for a hammer. If Wojjan is telling the truth, animask won't get lynched immediately though, and then we can all just unvote. On the other hand, if Wojjan is lying, animask will get lynched at 8 and hey, we found our first mafioso: it's Wojjan.
I can't tell if you're dumb or not. Wojjan lying or telling the truth about only being able to quote is irrelevant when it comes to them being mafia. Ok so we vote up animask and he gets lynched. Guess wojjan's vote counted. Does that mean they are mafia? No.

All it would do is confirm the fact that someone has a role that can do something like that.
Lybydose
osu! Alumni
2,024 posts
Joined January 2009
Lybydose
Someone pro-town would have no logical reason to lie about not being able to vote.
Mashley
2,042 posts
Joined September 2008
Mashley
I'm all for Lybydose's little scheme, so uh
Vote animask
NoHitter
osu! Alumni
3,785 posts
Joined June 2009
Topic Starter
NoHitter
VOTE COUNT
animask (3) - adam2046, Wojjan, Mashley
Mashley (1) - Two

Not Voting (11) - Quaraezha, animask, naptime, pieguy1372, LadySuburu, DeathxShinigami, Lybydose, intermu, 0_o, bmin11, Rantai

WITH 15 ALIVE, IT TAKES 8 TO HAMMER.

Prodded intermu, pieguy1372.
Last edited by NoHitter , edited 1 time in total.
Wojjan
806 posts
Joined August 2008
Wojjan
MOD: If we end up with 7 votes on animask, would we face a lynch on animask regardless (most votes) or have a no lynch? IF it's the latter, go ahead I guess, a no lynch on day 1 has its advantages.
NoHitter
osu! Alumni
3,785 posts
Joined June 2009
Topic Starter
NoHitter
In that case then animask will get lynched.
The person with the highest votes when the deadline hits will get lynched.
pieguyn
2,020 posts
Joined May 2009
pieguyn
Responding to prod~

I can't tell anything yet because it's only the first day :cry: I did notice this though

Two wrote:

Lybydose wrote:

There is a way to see if Wojjan is lying, but it's a bit of a gambit. If what he says is true, he now has a phantom ghost on animask: it shows that he's voting, but doesn't actually count.

If 7 other people vote for animask, he will hit 8 votes, normally enough for a hammer. If Wojjan is telling the truth, animask won't get lynched immediately though, and then we can all just unvote. On the other hand, if Wojjan is lying, animask will get lynched at 8 and hey, we found our first mafioso: it's Wojjan.
I can't tell if you're dumb or not. Wojjan lying or telling the truth about only being able to quote is irrelevant when it comes to them being mafia. Ok so we vote up animask and he gets lynched. Guess wojjan's vote counted. Does that mean they are mafia? No.

All it would do is confirm the fact that someone has a role that can do something like that.
If Wojjan's vote counted, it wouldn't confirm that someone had such a role, it would confirm the exact opposite: that no one had such a role and Wojjan was lying. Wojjan wouldn't have a reason to lie if he was innocent, so I'll go along and vote animask.
intermu
415 posts
Joined November 2009
intermu
Sorry. A spontaneous all-night karaoke session with friends interrupted my hikikomori session and I forgot about this.

0_o wrote:

Alright, read through the thread again, and there were two posts in particular that kinda rubbed me the wrong way. They're relatively weaker points, but we really can't expect conclusive evidence on Day 1 so I'm just going with what I got.

intermu wrote:

It's the usual first day voting!

Vote: Ph0x

Don't want to let people feel left out ;)
Pointing out that it was "the usual first day voting" before casting his RVS vote seemed a bit shifty. It wasn't necessary, and it kinda gave me the impression that he gave that extra explanation to his vote because he was paranoid of looking suspicious (which mafia tend to be).

Like I said, they aren't great points, but I don't have a whole lot else to go on at the moment.

So FoS on adam & intermu
Well, that's the first day, no? At the time it was the baseless voting phase, so hey. I did later unvote though, but I do understand your forcing of the issue since it is day 1 after all; not much to work with, really.

---

I'll just be honest, I'm quite bad at processing information so I'll need to reread again Wojjan's thing with the votes and quotes. I haven't really understood it very well, but I looked back a couple of pages and noticed Adam also posted a couple with quotes. Maybe it's a rotational thing between a few people?

Will look up posts again later.
Two_old
620 posts
Joined March 2008
Two_old

pieguy1372 wrote:

If Wojjan's vote counted, it wouldn't confirm that someone had such a role, it would confirm the exact opposite: that no one had such a role and Wojjan was lying. Wojjan wouldn't have a reason to lie if he was innocent, so I'll go along and vote animask.
yeah I had that backwards, but wojjan wouldn't have a reason to lie if she wasn't innocent, either

in fact it makes less sense if wojjan is mafia
adam2046
1,653 posts
Joined April 2008
adam2046

intermu wrote:

I looked back a couple of pages and noticed Adam also posted a couple with quotes. Maybe it's a rotational thing between a few people?
It isn't.
Two_old
620 posts
Joined March 2008
Two_old
why roleclaim
pieguyn
2,020 posts
Joined May 2009
pieguyn
Yes she would have a reason to lie, in order to stop people from accusing her. If she was Mafia, though, I doubt she'd lie by saying something like that that would draw even more attention to it...

I still think following through with Lybydose's plan is the best idea for now though. :?

Also, I think adam would know if he had a posting restriction...
naptime
naptime
Not entirely sure how following through with Lybydose's plan suggests we forgo reasons to vote for someone and match Wojjan's vote when she should probably be the one matching ours. Unless you gave a reason to vote for animask and I missed it.

Personally the only thing pushing me towards voting for animask is curiosity.
0_o
2,155 posts
Joined December 2008
0_o

naptime wrote:

Not entirely sure how following through with Lybydose's plan suggests we forgo reasons to vote for someone and match Wojjan's vote when she should probably be the one matching ours. Unless you gave a reason to vote for animask and I missed it.

Personally the only thing pushing me towards voting for animask is curiosity.
This. If we're gonna do this test then figure out who we wanna lynch first, then get Wojjan on the bandwagon. How does everyone feel about an animask lynch, disregarding Lyby's plan?
bmin11
5,438 posts
Joined October 2008
bmin11
NoHItter@ I unvoted my vote before. Please fix it for me


About Wojjan role claiming to avoid accusations. It's hard to believe wojjan would role claim with such mild accusation as what just happened. Not sure why she's doing this, but I'm getting a feeling that she's not doing this for bad intention.

However, if the public wants to figure wojjan's role out and lynch animask (who my gut tells me pro-town), I have no problem with it. animask is the one who's suppose to be worry with this experiment anyway >_>
Two_old
620 posts
Joined March 2008
Two_old
I'm not gonna vote for animask just to test a theory out when I don't think he's posting in a way that he would if he was mafia. It would be too easy for the votes to legitimately go over the limit.
LadySuburu
80 posts
Joined June 2008
LadySuburu
Better plan: We do the voting plan, but with Wojjan as the target. This way, if Wojjan is lying, he's procuring his own lynch.

Thoughts?

(As stated in the other thread, Temporary use of computer. (Maybe till 30min from now?) )
0_o
2,155 posts
Joined December 2008
0_o

LadySuburu wrote:

Better plan: We do the voting plan, but with Wojjan as the target. This way, if Wojjan is lying, he's procuring his own lynch.

Thoughts?

(As stated in the other thread, Temporary use of computer. (Maybe till 30min from now?) )
I thought of this too, but
a) that might be a little tough to get Wojjan to go along with that whether he's town or mafia due to possible doublevoters
b) Why risk it just to see if he really is voteless today? I don't see how having a typing quirk is a strictly pro-town condition, so even if he is proven to be voteless how is that helpful to us?
LadySuburu
80 posts
Joined June 2008
LadySuburu

0_o wrote:

LadySuburu wrote:

Better plan: We do the voting plan, but with Wojjan as the target. This way, if Wojjan is lying, he's procuring his own lynch.

Thoughts?

(As stated in the other thread, Temporary use of computer. (Maybe till 30min from now?) )
I thought of this too, but
a) that might be a little tough to get Wojjan to go along with that whether he's town or mafia due to possible doublevoters
b) Why risk it just to see if he really is voteless today? I don't see how having a typing quirk is a strictly pro-town condition, so even if he is proven to be voteless how is that helpful to us?
I meant if we were going to ltest the voting theory at all. I don't really believe wojjan's claim in the first place.

My lynch choices for now are wojjan and animask. I don't feel confident enough about animask, but there's not much more to go on.

Also, computer access gone.
Mashley
2,042 posts
Joined September 2008
Mashley
2 irl days to go, and I really can't see this 'test' happening tbh...
A question to all players: If you had to pick one player to lynch today, who would it be and why?
0_o
2,155 posts
Joined December 2008
0_o

Mashley wrote:

2 irl days to go, and I really can't see this 'test' happening tbh...
A question to all players: If you had to pick one player to lynch today, who would it be and why?
At this point I'm almost leaning towards a no lynch, there really isn't anyone who I would feel comfortable setting a vote on right now. I think a night to let the auxes do their thing might be the best thing to do.

Granted this WILL bring us to an even number of people, though it's pretty early in the game and the chances of an extra kill (or a successful protection) in the next few days probably isn't bad.

If you guys have any strong opinions about who to lynch then knock yourselves out, but I don't, so for now:

vote no lunch lynch
Mashley
2,042 posts
Joined September 2008
Mashley
No lynch is an interesting suggestion, but to be honest I really don't think it's useful on Day 1 - you're losing a chance to find the mafia. Though I will agree that no one here stands out as suspicious at the moment - that's why I asked the question :P .
0_o
2,155 posts
Joined December 2008
0_o

Mashley wrote:

No lynch is an interesting suggestion, but to be honest I really don't think it's useful on Day 1 - you're losing a chance to find the mafia.
Sure, but we also avoid the risk of lynching a townie (which, seeing as we really don't have much to go on, is quite high), and we would give our auxes the chance to use their powers so we could have a more informed lynch tomorrow.

Basically it would be the same thing as starting a game with a Night 0, which I believe is more beneficial to the town than mafia.
Two_old
620 posts
Joined March 2008
Two_old
I am and will forever be against no lynch. I would rather have a 10% chance to lynch mafia than 0. Losing a day so aux roles have a chance at finding mafia isn't worth it. It's the aux role's job to play in a way that they don't get chosen at night/day, and if they can't do that we lose anyway.
0_o
2,155 posts
Joined December 2008
0_o

Two wrote:

I would rather have a 10% chance to lynch mafia than 0.
Sure there would be a 0% chance of lynching mafia - there would also be a 0% chance of lynching a townie. If we had a consensus on one or two candiates then I would say sure, let's lynch one of them. But we don't, so I feel like the odds of lynching mafia tonight are going to be equal to or less than chance (20% if there are 3 mafia, which, seeing as the last game had 14 players w/3 mafia, is probably a safe guess). Assuming we have 3+ aux roles (we had a doctor + deputy + doctor + nurse last game, so I'd say it's likely), we are just as likely if not more likely to lynch an aux today than a mafioso.

Would you really want to take the 80% chance of lynching a townie, with a 20-30% chance of hitting an aux, for a 20% chance of hitting mafia?

Though now that I think of it you probably aren't going to change your mind no matter what I say so there probably wasn't any point in typing this up. Oh well.
0_o
2,155 posts
Joined December 2008
0_o
If anyone has any better ideas (specifically, we should lynch x), then please speak up, but if we can't come to any conclusions then I really do think a no lynch isn't the worst backup plan.
0_o
2,155 posts
Joined December 2008
0_o
Actually wait a sec.

Here are the number of alive players each day, assuming there are no extra kills, no successful protections and no mafia is lynched. Red percentages indicate the odds that we lynch a townie that day

No Lynch
Day 1 - 15 No lynch N/A
Day 2 - 14 79%
Day 3 - 12 75%
Day 4 - 10 70%
Day 5 - 8 lylo, but no lynch must be done to increase the odds of hitting mafia. N/A
Day 6 - 7 lylo 57%
Odds of losing without lynching a single mafia: 23.6%

Lynch
Day 1 - 15 80%
Day 2 - 13 76%
Day 3 - 11 73%
Day 4 - 9 67%
Day 5 - 7 lylo 57%
Odds of losing without lynching a single mafia: 17.0%

We have a minimum of 5 tries with a lynch today - only 4 tries with a no lynch. The no lynch scenario has the advantage of granting one more night action for the auxes, but it's difficult to say whether that balances out or not...

unvote no lynch

I dunno, what do the rest of you think?
0_o
2,155 posts
Joined December 2008
0_o
QUAD POST YEAH

Also those percentages assume 3 mafia, as stated in my previous paragraph.
naptime
naptime
Oh wow nice percentages. I wasn't a big fan of "not voting and letting aux do their thing" either since that doesn't seem to guarantee a smarter lynch on Day 2, especially with this many players to sway.

As for who I want to lynch now, it's hard to think of an answer that won't just seem baseless and random. If it's just a vote, probably Quaraezha or someone who suddenly stopped posting despite a bunch of stuff popping up.
Lybydose
osu! Alumni
2,024 posts
Joined January 2009
Lybydose
About the gambit trick thing: the intention is basically to see if Wojjan is lying or not. I suppose it would also work for anyone else we lynch though, not necessarily just animask. At this point animask does somewhat strike me as pro-town, despite being really stupid, so it might not be best to lynch him.

About seeing of Wojjan is lying or not: townies pretty much never have any reason to lie about anything in a game, with the exception of specific circumstances like roleclaiming Paranoid Gun Owner or Bomb or something. The mafia, however, have reason to lie about everything they say. They don't think someone is suspicious or believe someone is pro-town, they know someone is mafia or town or whatever. Acting weird and then coming up with a false reason that can be verified as false is not something a townie would do. A lying townie does nothing but work against his own team.

About who to lynch: it's probably too late to do the gambit thing, unless everyone agrees on someone to lynch. Thing is, there isn't really anything to go off of. At this point, I'm inclined to just vote Quaraezha. He hasn't said anything in forever, and what little he did say had virtually no substance. Lurking is generally a null-tell, but a lurking townie still isn't much use anyway. I'd like to at least see his opinion on things.
bmin11
5,438 posts
Joined October 2008
bmin11
I agree with no lynch for the same reason. We could take the chance, but it would be the same as taking a chance to lynch aux roles. So far, I don't have a clear thought on who could be mafia...

Who should we lynch:
As I said above, I don't have a clear opinion for myself. We could try the Wojjan voting thing, but it's hard to believe Wojjan would try to defence by role claiming that could or couldn't be her role. I'll be happy to go for no lynch at this point.
0_o
2,155 posts
Joined December 2008
0_o
As mentioned before though, the chance of a secret doublevoter could cause Wojjan to appear to be lying when he's not. Don't know how likely that is, but it could end quite badly if that was the case and we lynched him tomorrow.

Also, Wojjan is totally a guy.
Two_old
620 posts
Joined March 2008
Two_old
those percentages are assuming we lynch a random person every day

it looks a lot different if you factor in the unmeasurable
0_o
2,155 posts
Joined December 2008
0_o

Two wrote:

those percentages are assuming we lynch a random person every day

it looks a lot different if you factor in the unmeasurable
Well yeah of course the percentages aren't exact due to incalculable variables, but the point is that given information we have available to us right now, a lynch tonight gives us better odds than a no lynch in the long run. This doesn't take night actions into account though, so the question is if another night for night actions is worth knocking off a shot at lynching the mafia.

Which is a tough call seeing as we have no idea what the setup is like.
Rantai
1,000 posts
Joined July 2010
Rantai
Throwing down thoughts as they come to me.

Going by your numbers, we have a 4/15 chance of hitting scum (if there is an SK), 4/15 chance of hitting an aux role and 7/15 to hitting a vanilla if we lynch now. If we lynch later and assume an SK is on the loose and vanillas were killed, we'll have a 4/13 to hitting scum, 4/13 to hit an aux role and a 5/13 to hit a vanilla.

Looking at that we're going to have the same relative chance of hitting an aux/mafia on both situations but down 2 townies by the first lynch. This is all relative to aux roles though but the fact remains that we'll be in a no better position to hit mafia relative to hitting an aux in that situation.

Actually - Let's take a step back. If we do a no lynch with no SK and no successful block, the chance that the mafia will hit an aux would be 4/12 and a 100% chance of a townie dead. Then on our first lynch, we'll have a 3/14 chance (a measly 1.5% increase) to hit a mafia and then lose another townie/aux.

With a lynch we'll at least have a 3/15 chance to hit a mafia then they'll have a 4/11 chance of hitting an aux role (100% for townie). So they'll get an 11% extra chance (assuming miss-lynch) to hit an aux while we'll have a 20% chance to hit one of them. (obviously 100% chance to kill a townie)

Also on a side note, even if we no lynch, there is no guarantee that our cop will turn up a favourable result. Especially in the presence of possible miller roles which might lead to more/possible miss-lynches.

Not sure if that makes sense to anyone... but I'm leaning towards a lynch but I don't know who to lynch just yet.

If I really had to choose it'd come down to a random vote, I'm not convinced that Wojjan or animask are mafia just yet.

And of course, there are the variables which can't be controlled that'll skew things.
NoHitter
osu! Alumni
3,785 posts
Joined June 2009
Topic Starter
NoHitter
VOTE COUNT
animask (4) - adam2046, Wojjan, Mashley, pieguy1372
Mashley (1) - Two

Not Voting (10) - Quaraezha, animask, naptime, LadySuburu, DeathxShinigami, Lybydose, intermu, 0_o, bmin11, Rantai

WITH 15 ALIVE, IT TAKES 8 TO HAMMER.

DEADLINE IS IN 1 DAY
naptime
naptime
Dem numbers.

vote: Quaraezha in case I can't make it back by the deadline

/American flag
Rantai
1,000 posts
Joined July 2010
Rantai
Ha and I'm apparently pulling numbers out of my ass.

3% not 11%.
Lybydose
osu! Alumni
2,024 posts
Joined January 2009
Lybydose
vote: Quaraezha
Two_old
620 posts
Joined March 2008
Two_old
unvote, vote quaraezha

betta post
Quaraezha
1,491 posts
Joined February 2011
Quaraezha
Sorry guys, really am, guess I really can't handle too many mafia games.
(I'll be more active in the other Mafia threads soon)

So I'll probably ask to be replaced by rust.
DeathxShinigami
1,176 posts
Joined November 2008
DeathxShinigami
Vote: Quaraezha

Doesn't really matter what happens to your character at this point anyways...
Wojjan
806 posts
Joined August 2008
Wojjan
Well then, I'll Vote: Quaraezha as well. So you'll need 4 more votes to kill him off.
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