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5-P Dethy Mafia (N2) - The Endgame
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Sephi: Sakura Inno
Sakura: Sephi Guilty
GIF: Sakura Guilty
Lincolm: Sakura Inno
Nyquill: Lincolm Inno
If Sephi's SK
Sakura: Paranoid
GIF: Insane
Lincolm: Naive/Sane
Nyquill: Sane/Naive
If Sakura's SK
Sephi: Naive/Insane
GIF: Paranoid
Lincolm: Naive/Insane
Nyquill: Sane
If GIF's SK
Sephi: Naive/Sane
Sakura: Paranoid and Insane
Lincolm: Naive/Sane
Nyquill: -
thus GIF is confirmed
If Lincolm is SK
Sephi: Sane
Sakura: Paranoid/Insane
GiF: Paranoid/Insane
Nyquill: Naive
If Nyquill is SK
Sephi: Naive/Sane
Sakura: Paranoid/Insane
GiF: Paranoid/Insane
Lincolm: Naive/Sane
This is how you analyze properly - tell me if i made any mistake
Sakura: Sephi Guilty
GIF: Sakura Guilty
Lincolm: Sakura Inno
Nyquill: Lincolm Inno
If Sephi's SK
Sakura: Paranoid
GIF: Insane
Lincolm: Naive/Sane
Nyquill: Sane/Naive
If Sakura's SK
Sephi: Naive/Insane
GIF: Paranoid
Lincolm: Naive/Insane
Nyquill: Sane
If GIF's SK
Sephi: Naive/Sane
Sakura: Paranoid and Insane
Lincolm: Naive/Sane
Nyquill: -
thus GIF is confirmed
If Lincolm is SK
Sephi: Sane
Sakura: Paranoid/Insane
GiF: Paranoid/Insane
Nyquill: Naive
If Nyquill is SK
Sephi: Naive/Sane
Sakura: Paranoid/Insane
GiF: Paranoid/Insane
Lincolm: Naive/Sane
This is how you analyze properly - tell me if i made any mistake
Yeah I just realized. Hold on a sec.
But I still want Nyquill though. He still has the highest chance of flipping scum.
Order of possiblity of flipping town based on report : Sakura/Sephi > Lincolm > Nyquill
Outside of the logic/report stuff, my current scumpool is {Lincolm/Nyquill} so I still want Nyquill dead today.
Best case scenario for us now is that Nyquill is SK
Otherwise SK will 100% kill the Sane/Insane tonight :\
I was probably right that it wasn't good to share n0 info
Otherwise SK will 100% kill the Sane/Insane tonight :\
I was probably right that it wasn't good to share n0 info
I'm more familiar with dethy with n0 kill, so meh.
tbf I want to lynch today just because we have a mislynch.Sephibro wrote:
No. we NL today
ftr the SK isnt supposed to know the sanities, just alignments.
don't hammer NL yet - I'm making some more analysis and tell everybody what to do next night
If we're lynching based on probability of flipping scum, we're lynching Nyquill.
If we're lynching based on whose sanity is going to be most useless, we're lynching Lincolm.
If we're not lynching today, we still have to figure who to target.
If we're lynching based on whose sanity is going to be most useless, we're lynching Lincolm.
If we're not lynching today, we still have to figure who to target.
Then unvoteSephibro wrote:
don't hammer NL yet - I'm making some more analysis and tell everybody what to do next night
BTW, can I scumhunt in this setup?
you can do what you want, you're confirmed, just don't make me angry plsGuyInFreezer wrote:
BTW, can I scumhunt in this setup?
lol this sucks
If we're lynching based on probability of flipping scum, we're lynching Nyquill.
If we're lynching based on whose sanity is going to be most useless, we're lynching Lincolm.
If we're lynching based on dethy walkthrough, we're lynching Sakura, who got lone guilty.
And since we have one confirmed town, lynching today and not lynching today has a equal chance of us winning.
If we're lynching based on probability of flipping scum, we're lynching Nyquill.
If we're lynching based on whose sanity is going to be most useless, we're lynching Lincolm.
If we're lynching based on dethy walkthrough, we're lynching Sakura, who got lone guilty.
And since we have one confirmed town, lynching today and not lynching today has a equal chance of us winning.
lone guilty excluding the report of confirmed town*
Posting overall possibility for reference.
Sephi: Sane/Naive/insane
Sakura: Insane/Paranoid
GIF: Paranoid/Insane
Lincolm: Sane/Naive/insane
Nyquill: Sane/Naive
Sephi: Sane/Naive/insane
Sakura: Insane/Paranoid
GIF: Paranoid/Insane
Lincolm: Sane/Naive/insane
Nyquill: Sane/Naive
We're not voting until we fill this table:
If we NL today
- Nyquill -> Sakura
- Sephi ->
- Lincolm ->
- Me ->
-Sakura ->
If we lynch Sakura today:
- Sephi ->
- Nyquill ->
- Me ->
- Lincolm ->
If we lynch Sephi today (Insert Trollface here):
- Nyquill -> Sakura
- Me ->
- Lincolm ->
- Sakura ->
If we lynch Nyquill today
- Me ->
- Lincolm ->
- Sakura ->
- Sephi ->
If we lynch me today, y'all are dumb.
If we NL today
- Nyquill -> Sakura
- Sephi ->
- Lincolm ->
- Me ->
-Sakura ->
If we lynch Sakura today:
- Sephi ->
- Nyquill ->
- Me ->
- Lincolm ->
If we lynch Sephi today (Insert Trollface here):
- Nyquill -> Sakura
- Me ->
- Lincolm ->
- Sakura ->
If we lynch Nyquill today
- Me ->
- Lincolm ->
- Sakura ->
- Sephi ->
If we lynch me today, y'all are dumb.
Why's lynching lincolm not an option?
If any of y'all townread sephi, raise your hand.
Simply I forgot to put him.Sakura wrote:
Why's lynching lincolm not an option?
Anyways i think i should scan GiF who's alignment is confirmed if i get innocent then most likely seph is SK, if I get guilty then idk.
Sephi: Sane/Naive/insane
Sakura: Insane/Paranoid
GIF: Paranoid/Insane
Lincolm: Sane/Naive/insane
Nyquill: Sane/Naive
Sephi: Sakura Inno
Sakura: Sephi Guilty
GIF: Sakura Guilty
Lincolm: Sakura Inno
Nyquill: Lincolm Inno
If we NL today
- Nyquill -> Sakura
- Sephi ->
- Lincolm ->
- Me ->
- Sakura ->
If we lynch Sakura today:
- Sephi ->
- Nyquill ->
- Me ->
- Lincolm ->
If we lynch Sephi today (Insert Trollface here):
- Nyquill -> Sakura
- Me ->
- Lincolm ->
- Sakura ->
If we lynch Nyquill today
- Me ->
- Lincolm ->
- Sakura ->
- Sephi ->
If we lynch Lincolm today
- Nyquill -> Sakura
- Me ->
- Sakura ->
- Sephi ->
If we lynch me today, y'all are dumb.
Also why cant i be sane? :<
I want Sakura/Sephi/someone-else in LyLo tomorrow.
Because too many sane possibilities.Sakura wrote:
Also why cant i be sane? :<
Like, I'm the only one who can't be sane, which means that 4 ppl can be sane. Among those 4 ppl, you're least likely (if no chance) to be sane because you have the possibility of being paranoid and insane, which is in the other group of sanity. (Usually ppl are either sane/naive or insane/para)
Wait. Shit. Hold on a second.
nvm.
inb4 I scan GiF and get Inno...
Anyways guess i'll scan Nyquill, if we lynch Nyquill I'll scan Lincolm.
Why i'm not scanning conf town GiF? if im guaranteed not to be sane, then that means whether im paranoid or insane i'll get a guilty on him, which gives me no info.
Anyways guess i'll scan Nyquill, if we lynch Nyquill I'll scan Lincolm.
Why i'm not scanning conf town GiF? if im guaranteed not to be sane, then that means whether im paranoid or insane i'll get a guilty on him, which gives me no info.
We're lynching either Lincolm/Nyquill today, and you're gonna scan whoever didn't get lynched today.
That will confirmed your sanity tomorrow.
That will confirmed your sanity tomorrow.
confirm*
Sephi's checking me tonight.
Lincolm is checking Sephi if we lynch Nyquill today.
Nyquill -> Sakura
Sephi -> Nyquill
Lincolm -> Nyquill
Sakura -> Lincolm
GIF -> Lincolm
objections?
Sephi -> Nyquill
Lincolm -> Nyquill
Sakura -> Lincolm
GIF -> Lincolm
objections?
this if we NL. now let me consider scenarios with lynch
Hold on a sec. I'm trying to create a scenario where someone is confirmed town no matter what happens tomorrow.
F.
I made a typo on my testing place and now I need to run the scenarios all over again D:
I made a typo on my testing place and now I need to run the scenarios all over again D:
Screw this. I'm taking a break from this a bit.
Topic Starter
The moderator (still carrying the shotgun) heads back to the parlor once again and upon arrival, shows her disappointment. "You've talked for ages, and you still haven't concretely decided on an action yet? Wow you guys are more incompetent than Battler!"
She tilts her head upwards and clicks her tongue. "No one is voting for anyone yet."
Mod Note: If you find these posts annoying and want me to do a more "regular" format then please inform me.
She tilts her head upwards and clicks her tongue. "No one is voting for anyone yet."
Mod Note: If you find these posts annoying and want me to do a more "regular" format then please inform me.
Ok, just got to a certain conclusion.
Today, we MUST vote NL because there's no way to be 100% sure we are gathering enough information tomorrow to mathematically know who's the SK.
In we NL today, we can NL tomorrow too. If we Lynch today, tomorrow is LyLo
vote: No Lynch
Today, we MUST vote NL because there's no way to be 100% sure we are gathering enough information tomorrow to mathematically know who's the SK.
In we NL today, we can NL tomorrow too. If we Lynch today, tomorrow is LyLo
vote: No Lynch
@Mod: Nah flavor is really nice.
NOSephibro wrote:
Ok, just got to a certain conclusion.
Today, we MUST vote NL because there's no way to be 100% sure we are gathering enough information tomorrow to mathematically know who's the SK.
In we NL today, we can NL tomorrow too. If we Lynch today, tomorrow is LyLo
vote: No Lynch
UNVOTE FOR NOW
AT LEAST UNTIL I'M DONE WITH THIS STUFF
i've already done everything - but ok i'll wait to listen to your conclusions too
unvote
unvote
I'm gonna go eat right now but so far my scenario has 50% having confirmed scum tomorrow and another 50% creating confirmed town tomorrow.
Also, unless its better to do so, I'm not gonna list every scenario even though I'm done working on it.
ok - btw wait for me to check it before doing anything, you were already giving Sakura for conftown when she actually isn't
Dat discredit.
Die scum.
Die scum.
fwiw, i'm okay with being lynched if anyone feels its necessary, but lynching me generates a miniscule amount of information, so D2 will be quite the challenge.
Idk if nolynch would be the best option. Even if you go by elimination in this setup, 2 lynches are always better than one.
Idk if nolynch would be the best option. Even if you go by elimination in this setup, 2 lynches are always better than one.
the fact is this
5p
- if you lynch d1+n1 kill -> d2 is 3p LyLo
- if you No Lynch d1 -> d2 is 4p & you can No Lynch again -> d3 is 3p LyLo
5p
- if you lynch d1+n1 kill -> d2 is 3p LyLo
- if you No Lynch d1 -> d2 is 4p & you can No Lynch again -> d3 is 3p LyLo
Oh and what's more important - i want to win by wit and maths, not by luck
the trade off is one extra investigative round over 1 more chance at hitting scum/confirming one alignment.
I don't know which one is better actually
I don't know which one is better actually
I guess the unpredictable factor is who SK will kill, so maybe a nl would be better
we don't need it, not this gameNyquill wrote:
chance
*waves hand*Nyquill wrote:
I guess the unpredictable factor is who SK will kill, so maybe a nl would be better
Ok. I'm done with the initial calculation. I'm not outing what I have in mind yet, but so far, assuming that I die tonight, my plan will net confirmed scum 87.5%.
Assuming that this is 100% correct, that is.Sephibro wrote:
Sephi: Sakura Inno
Sakura: Sephi Guilty
GIF: Sakura Guilty
Lincolm: Sakura Inno
Nyquill: Lincolm Inno
If Sephi's SK
Sakura: Paranoid
GIF: Insane
Lincolm: Naive/Sane
Nyquill: Sane/Naive
If Sakura's SK
Sephi: Naive/Insane
GIF: Paranoid
Lincolm: Naive/Insane
Nyquill: Sane
If GIF's SK
Sephi: Naive/Sane
Sakura: Paranoid and Insane
Lincolm: Naive/Sane
Nyquill: -
thus GIF is confirmed
If Lincolm is SK
Sephi: Sane
Sakura: Paranoid/Insane
GiF: Paranoid/Insane
Nyquill: Naive
If Nyquill is SK
Sephi: Naive/Sane
Sakura: Paranoid/Insane
GiF: Paranoid/Insane
Lincolm: Naive/Sane
This is how you analyze properly - tell me if i made any mistake
Also, that 12.5% will get a confirmed town tomorrow.GuyInFreezer wrote:
Ok. I'm done with the initial calculation. I'm not outing what I have in mind yet, but so far, assuming that I die tonight, my plan will net confirmed scum 87.5%.
I don't want to explain the whole scenario, though. If I explain, tomorrow will most likely be that 12.5%.
Basically, lynch Nyquill today, Sephi and Sakura check Lincolm tonight, and Lincolm check Sephi tonight.
Oh also, leaving me alive in that plan will boost netting confirmed scum to like 95+%, so yeah. I think I'm guaranteed to die tonight.
still a waste of a free lynch to lynch me though, but whatever catches scum in the end I guess
Sooo if we follow my plan and I die tonight, it's .25 (Nyquill scum) + .75 {.875 (confirmed scum) + (.125/2 (lynching correctly in LyLo with one confirmed town))} = 95.31%.
If we follow my plan and I don't die tonight, it's .25 + (.75 * 0.969) = 97.68%.
If we follow my plan and I don't die tonight, it's .25 + (.75 * 0.969) = 97.68%.
Even with 95+% confirmed scum chance? O.OSephibro wrote:
No, we're No Lynching today
There's no guarantee that NLing today and tomorrow will net scum 100%.
I did my math, so you show me your math now.
Like, if SK knows most of our sanities at this point as you said, NLing twice will have more chance on 3P LyLo with a direct cc.
But in my case, SK knowing the sanity of most ppl can still cause him to autolose tomorrow.
Give me an exact percentage of town win, then.Sephibro wrote:
already done
calculating them would be quite difficult
do you realize that your percentages aren't exact at all?
Everything depends on who's getting nightkilled
do you realize that your percentages aren't exact at all?
Everything depends on who's getting nightkilled
It's all accounted.
The first percentage I gave was when I get nightkilled tonight.
The second percentage I gave was when I don't get nightkilled tonight.
The first percentage I gave was when I get nightkilled tonight.
The second percentage I gave was when I don't get nightkilled tonight.
Of course, there's a possibility that scum skips a nightkill, but that's basically same as the scenario where I get killed.
Oh, btw, in my plan, I'm checking sephi too.
So here's my offer.
Lynch Nyquill
Seph -> Lincolm
Lincolm -> Seph
Sakura -> Lincolm
me -> Seph
Percentage of netting confirmed scum tomorrow: Average of 96.5%.
Lynch Nyquill
Seph -> Lincolm
Lincolm -> Seph
Sakura -> Lincolm
me -> Seph
Percentage of netting confirmed scum tomorrow: Average of 96.5%.
do what you guys want, if scum is Nyquill or Lincolm it's almost the same
as i said, i want to win this with maths, not chance, so i'm supporting nothing but No Lynch
as i said, i want to win this with maths, not chance, so i'm supporting nothing but No Lynch
... Massclaim doesn't net confirmed scum 100% either.
I don't follow anything at the moment
sephi: massclaim actions
Um, I meant No Lynch.
GiF's solution
Lynch Nyquill
Seph -> Lincolm
Lincolm -> Seph
Sakura -> Lincolm
me -> Seph
Sephi's Solution
No Lynch
Nyquill -> Sakura
Sephi -> Nyquill
Lincolm -> Nyquill
Sakura -> Lincolm
GIF -> Lincolm
Lynch Nyquill
Seph -> Lincolm
Lincolm -> Seph
Sakura -> Lincolm
me -> Seph
Sephi's Solution
No Lynch
Nyquill -> Sakura
Sephi -> Nyquill
Lincolm -> Nyquill
Sakura -> Lincolm
GIF -> Lincolm
choose one and let's go ahead, we can't get further information from d1
Sephi's SolutionFirst of all, if this needs to work better, one of Seph/Lincolm needs to check me imo
No Lynch
Nyquill -> Sakura
Sephi -> Nyquill
Lincolm -> Nyquill
Sakura -> Lincolm
GIF -> Lincolm