Sephi's checking me tonight.
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5-P Dethy Mafia (N2) - The Endgame
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Lincolm is checking Sephi if we lynch Nyquill today.
Nyquill -> Sakura
Sephi -> Nyquill
Lincolm -> Nyquill
Sakura -> Lincolm
GIF -> Lincolm
objections?
Sephi -> Nyquill
Lincolm -> Nyquill
Sakura -> Lincolm
GIF -> Lincolm
objections?
this if we NL. now let me consider scenarios with lynch
Hold on a sec. I'm trying to create a scenario where someone is confirmed town no matter what happens tomorrow.
F.
I made a typo on my testing place and now I need to run the scenarios all over again D:
I made a typo on my testing place and now I need to run the scenarios all over again D:
Screw this. I'm taking a break from this a bit.
Topic Starter
The moderator (still carrying the shotgun) heads back to the parlor once again and upon arrival, shows her disappointment. "You've talked for ages, and you still haven't concretely decided on an action yet? Wow you guys are more incompetent than Battler!"
She tilts her head upwards and clicks her tongue. "No one is voting for anyone yet."
Mod Note: If you find these posts annoying and want me to do a more "regular" format then please inform me.
She tilts her head upwards and clicks her tongue. "No one is voting for anyone yet."
Mod Note: If you find these posts annoying and want me to do a more "regular" format then please inform me.
Ok, just got to a certain conclusion.
Today, we MUST vote NL because there's no way to be 100% sure we are gathering enough information tomorrow to mathematically know who's the SK.
In we NL today, we can NL tomorrow too. If we Lynch today, tomorrow is LyLo
vote: No Lynch
Today, we MUST vote NL because there's no way to be 100% sure we are gathering enough information tomorrow to mathematically know who's the SK.
In we NL today, we can NL tomorrow too. If we Lynch today, tomorrow is LyLo
vote: No Lynch
@Mod: Nah flavor is really nice.
NOSephibro wrote:
Ok, just got to a certain conclusion.
Today, we MUST vote NL because there's no way to be 100% sure we are gathering enough information tomorrow to mathematically know who's the SK.
In we NL today, we can NL tomorrow too. If we Lynch today, tomorrow is LyLo
vote: No Lynch
UNVOTE FOR NOW
AT LEAST UNTIL I'M DONE WITH THIS STUFF
i've already done everything - but ok i'll wait to listen to your conclusions too
unvote
unvote
I'm gonna go eat right now but so far my scenario has 50% having confirmed scum tomorrow and another 50% creating confirmed town tomorrow.
Also, unless its better to do so, I'm not gonna list every scenario even though I'm done working on it.
ok - btw wait for me to check it before doing anything, you were already giving Sakura for conftown when she actually isn't
Dat discredit.
Die scum.
Die scum.
fwiw, i'm okay with being lynched if anyone feels its necessary, but lynching me generates a miniscule amount of information, so D2 will be quite the challenge.
Idk if nolynch would be the best option. Even if you go by elimination in this setup, 2 lynches are always better than one.
Idk if nolynch would be the best option. Even if you go by elimination in this setup, 2 lynches are always better than one.
the fact is this
5p
- if you lynch d1+n1 kill -> d2 is 3p LyLo
- if you No Lynch d1 -> d2 is 4p & you can No Lynch again -> d3 is 3p LyLo
5p
- if you lynch d1+n1 kill -> d2 is 3p LyLo
- if you No Lynch d1 -> d2 is 4p & you can No Lynch again -> d3 is 3p LyLo
Oh and what's more important - i want to win by wit and maths, not by luck
the trade off is one extra investigative round over 1 more chance at hitting scum/confirming one alignment.
I don't know which one is better actually
I don't know which one is better actually
I guess the unpredictable factor is who SK will kill, so maybe a nl would be better
we don't need it, not this gameNyquill wrote:
chance
*waves hand*Nyquill wrote:
I guess the unpredictable factor is who SK will kill, so maybe a nl would be better
Ok. I'm done with the initial calculation. I'm not outing what I have in mind yet, but so far, assuming that I die tonight, my plan will net confirmed scum 87.5%.
Assuming that this is 100% correct, that is.Sephibro wrote:
Sephi: Sakura Inno
Sakura: Sephi Guilty
GIF: Sakura Guilty
Lincolm: Sakura Inno
Nyquill: Lincolm Inno
If Sephi's SK
Sakura: Paranoid
GIF: Insane
Lincolm: Naive/Sane
Nyquill: Sane/Naive
If Sakura's SK
Sephi: Naive/Insane
GIF: Paranoid
Lincolm: Naive/Insane
Nyquill: Sane
If GIF's SK
Sephi: Naive/Sane
Sakura: Paranoid and Insane
Lincolm: Naive/Sane
Nyquill: -
thus GIF is confirmed
If Lincolm is SK
Sephi: Sane
Sakura: Paranoid/Insane
GiF: Paranoid/Insane
Nyquill: Naive
If Nyquill is SK
Sephi: Naive/Sane
Sakura: Paranoid/Insane
GiF: Paranoid/Insane
Lincolm: Naive/Sane
This is how you analyze properly - tell me if i made any mistake
Also, that 12.5% will get a confirmed town tomorrow.GuyInFreezer wrote:
Ok. I'm done with the initial calculation. I'm not outing what I have in mind yet, but so far, assuming that I die tonight, my plan will net confirmed scum 87.5%.
I don't want to explain the whole scenario, though. If I explain, tomorrow will most likely be that 12.5%.
Basically, lynch Nyquill today, Sephi and Sakura check Lincolm tonight, and Lincolm check Sephi tonight.
Oh also, leaving me alive in that plan will boost netting confirmed scum to like 95+%, so yeah. I think I'm guaranteed to die tonight.
still a waste of a free lynch to lynch me though, but whatever catches scum in the end I guess
Sooo if we follow my plan and I die tonight, it's .25 (Nyquill scum) + .75 {.875 (confirmed scum) + (.125/2 (lynching correctly in LyLo with one confirmed town))} = 95.31%.
If we follow my plan and I don't die tonight, it's .25 + (.75 * 0.969) = 97.68%.
If we follow my plan and I don't die tonight, it's .25 + (.75 * 0.969) = 97.68%.
Even with 95+% confirmed scum chance? O.OSephibro wrote:
No, we're No Lynching today
There's no guarantee that NLing today and tomorrow will net scum 100%.
I did my math, so you show me your math now.
Like, if SK knows most of our sanities at this point as you said, NLing twice will have more chance on 3P LyLo with a direct cc.
But in my case, SK knowing the sanity of most ppl can still cause him to autolose tomorrow.
Give me an exact percentage of town win, then.Sephibro wrote:
already done
calculating them would be quite difficult
do you realize that your percentages aren't exact at all?
Everything depends on who's getting nightkilled
do you realize that your percentages aren't exact at all?
Everything depends on who's getting nightkilled
It's all accounted.
The first percentage I gave was when I get nightkilled tonight.
The second percentage I gave was when I don't get nightkilled tonight.
The first percentage I gave was when I get nightkilled tonight.
The second percentage I gave was when I don't get nightkilled tonight.
Of course, there's a possibility that scum skips a nightkill, but that's basically same as the scenario where I get killed.
Oh, btw, in my plan, I'm checking sephi too.
So here's my offer.
Lynch Nyquill
Seph -> Lincolm
Lincolm -> Seph
Sakura -> Lincolm
me -> Seph
Percentage of netting confirmed scum tomorrow: Average of 96.5%.
Lynch Nyquill
Seph -> Lincolm
Lincolm -> Seph
Sakura -> Lincolm
me -> Seph
Percentage of netting confirmed scum tomorrow: Average of 96.5%.
do what you guys want, if scum is Nyquill or Lincolm it's almost the same
as i said, i want to win this with maths, not chance, so i'm supporting nothing but No Lynch
as i said, i want to win this with maths, not chance, so i'm supporting nothing but No Lynch
... Massclaim doesn't net confirmed scum 100% either.
I don't follow anything at the moment
sephi: massclaim actions
Um, I meant No Lynch.
GiF's solution
Lynch Nyquill
Seph -> Lincolm
Lincolm -> Seph
Sakura -> Lincolm
me -> Seph
Sephi's Solution
No Lynch
Nyquill -> Sakura
Sephi -> Nyquill
Lincolm -> Nyquill
Sakura -> Lincolm
GIF -> Lincolm
Lynch Nyquill
Seph -> Lincolm
Lincolm -> Seph
Sakura -> Lincolm
me -> Seph
Sephi's Solution
No Lynch
Nyquill -> Sakura
Sephi -> Nyquill
Lincolm -> Nyquill
Sakura -> Lincolm
GIF -> Lincolm
choose one and let's go ahead, we can't get further information from d1
Sephi's SolutionFirst of all, if this needs to work better, one of Seph/Lincolm needs to check me imo
No Lynch
Nyquill -> Sakura
Sephi -> Nyquill
Lincolm -> Nyquill
Sakura -> Lincolm
GIF -> Lincolm
Actually, both of Sephi and Lincolm need to check me.
That way, there are more chances to decrease scumpool to two ppl D2.
That way, there are more chances to decrease scumpool to two ppl D2.
I'm guessing that the point of it is that making sure that you and Lincolm check the same person since y'all's sanitypool are same.
Then why not check me instead? Checking me will have 50% chance to figure out your sanity right away.
I mean, it seems like your whole point of your plan is to figure out yours and Lincolm's sanity. You and Lincolm checking me will give out better results.
because checking a 100% town to know if someone's naive or sane isn't a wise choice
What if one of you get guilty? (Oh snap)
I mean compare this
Sephi GIF inno - Naive/Saneto this:
Sephi GIF guilty - Insane - Sakura Scum
Sephi Nyquill Guilty - Scum in Sak/Nyq , Sane/Insane
Sephi Nyquill Inno - Naive/Sane
Also can I check you instead of Lincolm? If someone is dying and it's not me, it's most likely you.
Nvm this. This is only gonna prove if I'm sane or not.GuyInFreezer wrote:
Also can I check you instead of Lincolm? If someone is dying and it's not me, it's most likely you.
i'll recheck those choices later, but i was pretty sure about them
rechecked, it was correct
Nyquill -> Sakura
Sephi -> Nyquill
Lincolm -> Nyquill
Sakura -> Lincolm
GIF -> Lincolm
Nyquill -> Sakura
Sephi -> Nyquill
Lincolm -> Nyquill
Sakura -> Lincolm
GIF -> Lincolm
this is also good
Nyquill -> Sakura
Sephi -> Nyquill
Lincolm -> Nyquill
Sakura -> Nyquill
GIF -> Nyquill
Nyquill -> Sakura
Sephi -> Nyquill
Lincolm -> Nyquill
Sakura -> Nyquill
GIF -> Nyquill
Were you voting?
maybe i was on NL, i cant remember if i had unvoted already
So guys, what's the decission, I'll go with what the conftown says, besides GiF's a better strategiest than me.
btw everything i'm trying, i always find a worst-case-scenario where we aren't able to tell who's the SK
oh and your one gif is not-shitty only if nyquill is sk
Why can't he be SK?
if he isn't we won't be able to say who's the sk unless the sk makes a mistake on his fake inspection
Also we need to decide an order of claims tomorrow, it's usually most suspect first and then it goes on until the least suspect.
Nyquill -> Lincolm -> Sakura -> Sephi -> MeSakura wrote:
Also we need to decide an order of claims tomorrow, it's usually most suspect first and then it goes on until the least suspect.
(Sakura/Sephi can be switched if needed)
I'm fine with that order.
there are big problems in both my and gif's strategies, and the claim order wouldn't mean a thing since sk would still know what he needs to claim even without knowing what outcome the others got
Actually, that would be a problem of every "strategies" used in Dethy ever.Sephibro wrote:
there are big problems in both my and gif's strategies, and the claim order wouldn't mean a thing since sk would still know what he needs to claim even without knowing what outcome the others got
It seems after I slept and went to school the plan is over. I can go with both plan, though I rather not random lynch. I mean, I don't understand based what of Nyquill is lynched. But I agree with Sakura, it is better with the confirmed rather than not confirmed.
BooLincolm wrote:
though I rather not random lynch.
It's not random lynch in any way.
He's my #1 scumread via PoE and his lynch works perfectly with my plan.
I'd like to know how you deduced I'm scum simply because I checked Lincoln instead of Sakura, or even worse, because I claimed last.
w.e, failure scumread.
w.e, failure scumread.
I still don't see why. It is more likely the plan based on "I give the plan, but we lynch Nyquill" isn't it?
But still, we're stuck in here. No one want to discuss, but the plan. I think we're going to have plenty more in day 2, so Vote : Nyquill
But still, we're stuck in here. No one want to discuss, but the plan. I think we're going to have plenty more in day 2, so Vote : Nyquill
Also, since I'm not sk, your plan tommorow depends heavily on what scum actually claims tommorow. Since there is no third round of checking, you better make it count.
All on GiF if this doesn't work.
All on GiF if this doesn't work.
So ok im checking Lincolm then, right?
GuyInFreezer wrote:
So here's my offer.
Lynch Nyquill
Seph -> Lincolm
Lincolm -> Seph
Sakura -> Lincolm
me -> Seph
Percentage of netting confirmed scum tomorrow: Average of 96.5%.