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5-P Dethy Mafia (N2) - The Endgame

posted 2013-11-27T02:36:17+00:00

Total Posts

339

GuyInFreezer

Joined June 2013

GuyInFreezer 2013-11-28T15:54:24+00:00

Also why Nyquill should be lynched today:

1. Sephibro got guilty'd by Sakura, who is confirmed town and confirmed not sane. There's 50% chance that Sakura is insane, therefore he has a chance to be town.
2. Lincolm got inno'd by Nyquill, whose role is unknown. If Nyquill is SK, it basically clears Lincolm. Therefore, he has a chance to be town, albeit lower than Sephi's.
3. Nyquill, on other hand, have no chance of being town based on today's report. There IS a chance of Nyquill being town, but it's lower than Sephi's and Lincolm's, therefore highest chance of being scum.

"Cease to hate, learn to love. Let the love spread."
えいじんみなみ <- My Japanese Name (Even though I'm Korean.)

Sakura

osu! Alumni

Joined March 2010

Sakura 2013-11-28T15:56:10+00:00

Anyway, among Sephi, Lincolm and Nyquill we have 1 sane, 1 naive and 1 sk.

That's the thing. Otherwise

If Sephi is Insane, it doesnt work since im conf town.
If Lincolm is Insane, it doesnt work since im conf town.

Now what happens if Nyquill is Insane?

GiF would NEED to be Paranoid (since he cant be sane).

From that assumption then Sephibro is SK and Lincolm Naive.

But if Lincolm is town then how the heck is Nyquill Insane?

So yeah GiF's clear.

God my head X_X

I bloom in spring

GuyInFreezer

Joined June 2013

GuyInFreezer 2013-11-28T15:59:52+00:00

If I was sane and Sakura is scum, that means that Sephi is insane/naive, lincolm is insane/naive, and Nyquill is confirmed naive.
That means that Sephi's and Lincolm's role will conflict.

"Cease to hate, learn to love. Let the love spread."
えいじんみなみ <- My Japanese Name (Even though I'm Korean.)

Sakura

osu! Alumni

Joined March 2010

Sakura 2013-11-28T16:00:00+00:00

you see, the thing is, there's 2 innocents and 1 guilty on me.

If im scum

One Inno has to be Naive, Another Inno has to be Insane, And the guilty has to be Sane/Paranoid.

those 3 would be seph, gif, lincolm.

Then that means that Nyquill would be paranoid or Sane... but oh wait Nyquill got an inno!

I bloom in spring

GuyInFreezer

Joined June 2013

GuyInFreezer 2013-11-28T16:00:08+00:00

Therefore, I can't be sane.

"Cease to hate, learn to love. Let the love spread."
えいじんみなみ <- My Japanese Name (Even though I'm Korean.)

GuyInFreezer

Joined June 2013

GuyInFreezer 2013-11-28T16:00:45+00:00

As I said, all the assumptions are taken care of.

"Cease to hate, learn to love. Let the love spread."
えいじんみなみ <- My Japanese Name (Even though I'm Korean.)

Sakura

osu! Alumni

Joined March 2010

Sakura 2013-11-28T16:00:57+00:00

oh wait, that's... awkward... argh my head

I bloom in spring

GuyInFreezer

Joined June 2013

GuyInFreezer 2013-11-28T16:06:10+00:00

I'm working on a recap of what happened so far.

"Cease to hate, learn to love. Let the love spread."
えいじんみなみ <- My Japanese Name (Even though I'm Korean.)

Sephibro

Joined November 2012

Sephibro 2013-11-28T16:14:34+00:00

Sephi: Sakura Inno
Sakura: Sephi Guilty
GIF: Sakura Guilty
Lincolm: Sakura Inno
Nyquill: Lincolm Inno

If Sephi's SK

Sakura: Paranoid
GIF: Insane
Lincolm: Naive/Sane
Nyquill: Sane/Naive

If Sakura's SK

Sephi: Naive/Insane
GIF: Paranoid
Lincolm: Naive/Insane
Nyquill: Sane

If GIF's SK

Sephi: Naive/Sane
Sakura: Paranoid and Insane
Lincolm: Naive/Sane
Nyquill: -

thus GIF is confirmed

If Lincolm is SK

Sephi: Sane
Sakura: Paranoid/Insane
GiF: Paranoid/Insane
Nyquill: Naive

If Nyquill is SK

Sephi: Naive/Sane
Sakura: Paranoid/Insane
GiF: Paranoid/Insane
Lincolm: Naive/Sane

This is how you analyze properly - tell me if i made any mistake

GuyInFreezer

Joined June 2013

GuyInFreezer 2013-11-28T16:15:04+00:00

Yeah I just realized. Hold on a sec.

"Cease to hate, learn to love. Let the love spread."
えいじんみなみ <- My Japanese Name (Even though I'm Korean.)

GuyInFreezer

Joined June 2013

GuyInFreezer 2013-11-28T16:18:41+00:00

But I still want Nyquill though. He still has the highest chance of flipping scum.

"Cease to hate, learn to love. Let the love spread."
えいじんみなみ <- My Japanese Name (Even though I'm Korean.)

GuyInFreezer

Joined June 2013

GuyInFreezer 2013-11-28T16:19:23+00:00

Order of possiblity of flipping town based on report : Sakura/Sephi > Lincolm > Nyquill

"Cease to hate, learn to love. Let the love spread."
えいじんみなみ <- My Japanese Name (Even though I'm Korean.)

GuyInFreezer

Joined June 2013

GuyInFreezer 2013-11-28T16:20:39+00:00

Outside of the logic/report stuff, my current scumpool is {Lincolm/Nyquill} so I still want Nyquill dead today.

"Cease to hate, learn to love. Let the love spread."
えいじんみなみ <- My Japanese Name (Even though I'm Korean.)

Sephibro

Joined November 2012

Sephibro 2013-11-28T16:21:01+00:00

Best case scenario for us now is that Nyquill is SK
Otherwise SK will 100% kill the Sane/Insane tonight :\

I was probably right that it wasn't good to share n0 info

Sephibro

Joined November 2012

Sephibro 2013-11-28T16:21:31+00:00

No. we NL today

GuyInFreezer

Joined June 2013

GuyInFreezer 2013-11-28T16:21:42+00:00

I'm more familiar with dethy with n0 kill, so meh.

"Cease to hate, learn to love. Let the love spread."
えいじんみなみ <- My Japanese Name (Even though I'm Korean.)

GuyInFreezer

Joined June 2013

GuyInFreezer 2013-11-28T16:24:31+00:00

Sephibro wrote:
No. we NL today

tbf I want to lynch today just because we have a mislynch.

"Cease to hate, learn to love. Let the love spread."
えいじんみなみ <- My Japanese Name (Even though I'm Korean.)

Sakura

osu! Alumni

Joined March 2010

Sakura 2013-11-28T16:25:13+00:00

ftr the SK isnt supposed to know the sanities, just alignments.

I bloom in spring

Sephibro

Joined November 2012

Sephibro 2013-11-28T16:25:25+00:00

don't hammer NL yet - I'm making some more analysis and tell everybody what to do next night

GuyInFreezer

Joined June 2013

GuyInFreezer 2013-11-28T16:26:04+00:00

If we're lynching based on probability of flipping scum, we're lynching Nyquill.
If we're lynching based on whose sanity is going to be most useless, we're lynching Lincolm.
If we're not lynching today, we still have to figure who to target.

"Cease to hate, learn to love. Let the love spread."
えいじんみなみ <- My Japanese Name (Even though I'm Korean.)

GuyInFreezer

Joined June 2013

GuyInFreezer 2013-11-28T16:26:21+00:00

Sephibro wrote:
don't hammer NL yet - I'm making some more analysis and tell everybody what to do next night

Then unvote

"Cease to hate, learn to love. Let the love spread."
えいじんみなみ <- My Japanese Name (Even though I'm Korean.)

Sephibro

Joined November 2012

Sephibro 2013-11-28T16:27:56+00:00

unvote

GuyInFreezer

Joined June 2013

GuyInFreezer 2013-11-28T16:29:43+00:00

BTW, can I scumhunt in this setup?

"Cease to hate, learn to love. Let the love spread."
えいじんみなみ <- My Japanese Name (Even though I'm Korean.)

Sephibro

Joined November 2012

Sephibro 2013-11-28T16:32:12+00:00

Sakura wrote:
ftr the SK isnt supposed to know the sanities, just alignments.

The SK knows which of the 4 (actually 3) possible configurations on this post p/2710624 is the right one.

Sephibro

Joined November 2012

Sephibro 2013-11-28T16:33:09+00:00

GuyInFreezer wrote:
BTW, can I scumhunt in this setup?

you can do what you want, you're confirmed, just don't make me angry pls

GuyInFreezer

Joined June 2013

GuyInFreezer 2013-11-28T16:35:56+00:00

lol this sucks

If we're lynching based on probability of flipping scum, we're lynching Nyquill.
If we're lynching based on whose sanity is going to be most useless, we're lynching Lincolm.
If we're lynching based on dethy walkthrough, we're lynching Sakura, who got lone guilty.

And since we have one confirmed town, lynching today and not lynching today has a equal chance of us winning.

"Cease to hate, learn to love. Let the love spread."
えいじんみなみ <- My Japanese Name (Even though I'm Korean.)

GuyInFreezer

Joined June 2013

GuyInFreezer 2013-11-28T16:37:26+00:00

lone guilty excluding the report of confirmed town*

"Cease to hate, learn to love. Let the love spread."
えいじんみなみ <- My Japanese Name (Even though I'm Korean.)

GuyInFreezer

Joined June 2013

GuyInFreezer 2013-11-28T16:41:14+00:00

Posting overall possibility for reference.

Sephi: Sane/Naive/insane
Sakura: Insane/Paranoid
GIF: Paranoid/Insane
Lincolm: Sane/Naive/insane
Nyquill: Sane/Naive

"Cease to hate, learn to love. Let the love spread."
えいじんみなみ <- My Japanese Name (Even though I'm Korean.)

GuyInFreezer

Joined June 2013

GuyInFreezer 2013-11-28T16:48:10+00:00

We're not voting until we fill this table:

If we NL today

- Nyquill -> Sakura
- Sephi ->
- Lincolm ->
- Me ->
-Sakura ->

If we lynch Sakura today:

- Sephi ->
- Nyquill ->
- Me ->
- Lincolm ->

If we lynch Sephi today (Insert Trollface here):

- Nyquill -> Sakura
- Me ->
- Lincolm ->
- Sakura ->

If we lynch Nyquill today

- Me ->
- Lincolm ->
- Sakura ->
- Sephi ->

If we lynch me today, y'all are dumb.

"Cease to hate, learn to love. Let the love spread."
えいじんみなみ <- My Japanese Name (Even though I'm Korean.)

Sephibro

Joined November 2012

Sephibro 2013-11-28T16:50:44+00:00

vote: gif

Sephibro

Joined November 2012

Sephibro 2013-11-28T16:52:10+00:00

Sephibro

Joined November 2012

Sephibro 2013-11-28T16:52:26+00:00

unvote

Sakura

osu! Alumni

Joined March 2010

Sakura 2013-11-28T16:54:26+00:00

Why's lynching lincolm not an option?

I bloom in spring

GuyInFreezer

Joined June 2013

GuyInFreezer 2013-11-28T16:55:05+00:00

If any of y'all townread sephi, raise your hand.

"Cease to hate, learn to love. Let the love spread."
えいじんみなみ <- My Japanese Name (Even though I'm Korean.)

GuyInFreezer

Joined June 2013

GuyInFreezer 2013-11-28T16:55:22+00:00

Sakura wrote:
Why's lynching lincolm not an option?

Simply I forgot to put him.

"Cease to hate, learn to love. Let the love spread."
えいじんみなみ <- My Japanese Name (Even though I'm Korean.)

Sakura

osu! Alumni

Joined March 2010

Sakura 2013-11-28T16:55:36+00:00

Anyways i think i should scan GiF who's alignment is confirmed if i get innocent then most likely seph is SK, if I get guilty then idk.

I bloom in spring

GuyInFreezer

Joined June 2013

GuyInFreezer 2013-11-28T16:55:59+00:00

Sephi: Sane/Naive/insane
Sakura: Insane/Paranoid
GIF: Paranoid/Insane
Lincolm: Sane/Naive/insane
Nyquill: Sane/Naive

Sephi: Sakura Inno
Sakura: Sephi Guilty
GIF: Sakura Guilty
Lincolm: Sakura Inno
Nyquill: Lincolm Inno

If we NL today

- Nyquill -> Sakura
- Sephi ->
- Lincolm ->
- Me ->
- Sakura ->

If we lynch Sakura today:

- Sephi ->
- Nyquill ->
- Me ->
- Lincolm ->

If we lynch Sephi today (Insert Trollface here):

- Nyquill -> Sakura
- Me ->
- Lincolm ->
- Sakura ->

If we lynch Nyquill today

- Me ->
- Lincolm ->
- Sakura ->
- Sephi ->

If we lynch Lincolm today

- Nyquill -> Sakura
- Me ->
- Sakura ->
- Sephi ->

If we lynch me today, y'all are dumb.

"Cease to hate, learn to love. Let the love spread."
えいじんみなみ <- My Japanese Name (Even though I'm Korean.)

Sakura

osu! Alumni

Joined March 2010

Sakura 2013-11-28T16:56:01+00:00

Also why cant i be sane? :<

I bloom in spring

GuyInFreezer

Joined June 2013

GuyInFreezer 2013-11-28T16:57:07+00:00

I want Sakura/Sephi/someone-else in LyLo tomorrow.

"Cease to hate, learn to love. Let the love spread."
えいじんみなみ <- My Japanese Name (Even though I'm Korean.)

GuyInFreezer

Joined June 2013

GuyInFreezer 2013-11-28T16:58:01+00:00

Sakura wrote:
Also why cant i be sane? :<

Because too many sane possibilities.

"Cease to hate, learn to love. Let the love spread."
えいじんみなみ <- My Japanese Name (Even though I'm Korean.)

GuyInFreezer

Joined June 2013

GuyInFreezer 2013-11-28T17:00:06+00:00

Like, I'm the only one who can't be sane, which means that 4 ppl can be sane. Among those 4 ppl, you're least likely (if no chance) to be sane because you have the possibility of being paranoid and insane, which is in the other group of sanity. (Usually ppl are either sane/naive or insane/para)

"Cease to hate, learn to love. Let the love spread."
えいじんみなみ <- My Japanese Name (Even though I'm Korean.)

GuyInFreezer

Joined June 2013

GuyInFreezer 2013-11-28T17:01:40+00:00

Wait. Shit. Hold on a second.

"Cease to hate, learn to love. Let the love spread."
えいじんみなみ <- My Japanese Name (Even though I'm Korean.)

GuyInFreezer

Joined June 2013

GuyInFreezer 2013-11-28T17:02:09+00:00

nvm.

"Cease to hate, learn to love. Let the love spread."
えいじんみなみ <- My Japanese Name (Even though I'm Korean.)

Sakura

osu! Alumni

Joined March 2010

Sakura 2013-11-28T17:04:47+00:00

inb4 I scan GiF and get Inno...

Anyways guess i'll scan Nyquill, if we lynch Nyquill I'll scan Lincolm.

Why i'm not scanning conf town GiF? if im guaranteed not to be sane, then that means whether im paranoid or insane i'll get a guilty on him, which gives me no info.

I bloom in spring

GuyInFreezer

Joined June 2013

GuyInFreezer 2013-11-28T17:06:38+00:00

We're lynching either Lincolm/Nyquill today, and you're gonna scan whoever didn't get lynched today.
That will confirmed your sanity tomorrow.

"Cease to hate, learn to love. Let the love spread."
えいじんみなみ <- My Japanese Name (Even though I'm Korean.)

GuyInFreezer

Joined June 2013

GuyInFreezer 2013-11-28T17:06:58+00:00

confirm*

"Cease to hate, learn to love. Let the love spread."
えいじんみなみ <- My Japanese Name (Even though I'm Korean.)

GuyInFreezer

Joined June 2013

GuyInFreezer 2013-11-28T17:08:15+00:00

Sephi's checking me tonight.

"Cease to hate, learn to love. Let the love spread."
えいじんみなみ <- My Japanese Name (Even though I'm Korean.)

GuyInFreezer

Joined June 2013

GuyInFreezer 2013-11-28T17:10:14+00:00

Lincolm is checking Sephi if we lynch Nyquill today.

"Cease to hate, learn to love. Let the love spread."
えいじんみなみ <- My Japanese Name (Even though I'm Korean.)

Sephibro

Joined November 2012

Sephibro 2013-11-28T17:15:29+00:00

guys

Sephibro

Joined November 2012

Sephibro 2013-11-28T17:15:50+00:00

I GOT THIS

Sephibro

Joined November 2012

Sephibro 2013-11-28T17:17:21+00:00

Nyquill -> Sakura
Sephi -> Nyquill
Lincolm -> Nyquill
Sakura -> Lincolm
GIF -> Lincolm

objections?

Sephibro

Joined November 2012

Sephibro 2013-11-28T17:19:06+00:00

this if we NL. now let me consider scenarios with lynch

GuyInFreezer

Joined June 2013

GuyInFreezer 2013-11-28T17:19:40+00:00

Hold on a sec. I'm trying to create a scenario where someone is confirmed town no matter what happens tomorrow.

"Cease to hate, learn to love. Let the love spread."
えいじんみなみ <- My Japanese Name (Even though I'm Korean.)

GuyInFreezer

Joined June 2013

GuyInFreezer 2013-11-28T17:27:47+00:00

F.
I made a typo on my testing place and now I need to run the scenarios all over again D:

"Cease to hate, learn to love. Let the love spread."
えいじんみなみ <- My Japanese Name (Even though I'm Korean.)

GuyInFreezer

Joined June 2013

GuyInFreezer 2013-11-28T17:29:28+00:00

Screw this. I'm taking a break from this a bit.

"Cease to hate, learn to love. Let the love spread."
えいじんみなみ <- My Japanese Name (Even though I'm Korean.)

NoHitter

osu! Alumni

Joined June 2009

Topic Starter

NoHitter 2013-11-28T17:32:11+00:00

The moderator (still carrying the shotgun) heads back to the parlor once again and upon arrival, shows her disappointment. "You've talked for ages, and you still haven't concretely decided on an action yet? Wow you guys are more incompetent than Battler!"

She tilts her head upwards and clicks her tongue. "No one is voting for anyone yet."

Mod Note: If you find these posts annoying and want me to do a more "regular" format then please inform me.

Sephibro

Joined November 2012

Sephibro 2013-11-28T17:38:53+00:00

Ok, just got to a certain conclusion.

Today, we MUST vote NL because there's no way to be 100% sure we are gathering enough information tomorrow to mathematically know who's the SK.
In we NL today, we can NL tomorrow too. If we Lynch today, tomorrow is LyLo

vote: No Lynch

Sakura

osu! Alumni

Joined March 2010

Sakura 2013-11-28T17:39:00+00:00

@Mod: Nah flavor is really nice.

I bloom in spring

GuyInFreezer

Joined June 2013

GuyInFreezer 2013-11-28T17:40:41+00:00

Sephibro wrote:
Ok, just got to a certain conclusion.

Today, we MUST vote NL because there's no way to be 100% sure we are gathering enough information tomorrow to mathematically know who's the SK.
In we NL today, we can NL tomorrow too. If we Lynch today, tomorrow is LyLo

vote: No Lynch

NO
UNVOTE FOR NOW
AT LEAST UNTIL I'M DONE WITH THIS STUFF

"Cease to hate, learn to love. Let the love spread."
えいじんみなみ <- My Japanese Name (Even though I'm Korean.)

Sephibro

Joined November 2012

Sephibro 2013-11-28T17:42:48+00:00

i've already done everything - but ok i'll wait to listen to your conclusions too

unvote

GuyInFreezer

Joined June 2013

GuyInFreezer 2013-11-28T17:52:55+00:00

I'm gonna go eat right now but so far my scenario has 50% having confirmed scum tomorrow and another 50% creating confirmed town tomorrow.

"Cease to hate, learn to love. Let the love spread."
えいじんみなみ <- My Japanese Name (Even though I'm Korean.)

GuyInFreezer

Joined June 2013

GuyInFreezer 2013-11-28T17:59:03+00:00

Also, unless its better to do so, I'm not gonna list every scenario even though I'm done working on it.

"Cease to hate, learn to love. Let the love spread."
えいじんみなみ <- My Japanese Name (Even though I'm Korean.)

Sephibro

Joined November 2012

Sephibro 2013-11-28T18:06:12+00:00

ok - btw wait for me to check it before doing anything, you were already giving Sakura for conftown when she actually isn't

GuyInFreezer

Joined June 2013

GuyInFreezer 2013-11-28T18:10:58+00:00

Dat discredit.
Die scum.

"Cease to hate, learn to love. Let the love spread."
えいじんみなみ <- My Japanese Name (Even though I'm Korean.)

Sephibro

Joined November 2012

Sephibro 2013-11-28T18:13:24+00:00

haha

Nyquill

osu! Alumni

Joined February 2011

Nyquill 2013-11-28T18:15:01+00:00

fwiw, i'm okay with being lynched if anyone feels its necessary, but lynching me generates a miniscule amount of information, so D2 will be quite the challenge.

Idk if nolynch would be the best option. Even if you go by elimination in this setup, 2 lynches are always better than one.

Sephibro

Joined November 2012

Sephibro 2013-11-28T18:19:17+00:00

the fact is this

5p
- if you lynch d1+n1 kill -> d2 is 3p LyLo
- if you No Lynch d1 -> d2 is 4p & you can No Lynch again -> d3 is 3p LyLo

Sephibro

Joined November 2012

Sephibro 2013-11-28T18:20:32+00:00

Oh and what's more important - i want to win by wit and maths, not by luck

Nyquill

osu! Alumni

Joined February 2011

Nyquill 2013-11-28T18:21:13+00:00

the trade off is one extra investigative round over 1 more chance at hitting scum/confirming one alignment.

I don't know which one is better actually

Nyquill

osu! Alumni

Joined February 2011

Nyquill 2013-11-28T18:22:25+00:00

I guess the unpredictable factor is who SK will kill, so maybe a nl would be better

Sephibro

Joined November 2012

Sephibro 2013-11-28T18:33:15+00:00

Nyquill wrote:
chance

we don't need it, not this game

GuyInFreezer

Joined June 2013

GuyInFreezer 2013-11-28T18:57:47+00:00

Nyquill wrote:
I guess the unpredictable factor is who SK will kill, so maybe a nl would be better

*waves hand*

"Cease to hate, learn to love. Let the love spread."
えいじんみなみ <- My Japanese Name (Even though I'm Korean.)

GuyInFreezer

Joined June 2013

GuyInFreezer 2013-11-28T19:05:46+00:00

Ok. I'm done with the initial calculation. I'm not outing what I have in mind yet, but so far, assuming that I die tonight, my plan will net confirmed scum 87.5%.

"Cease to hate, learn to love. Let the love spread."
えいじんみなみ <- My Japanese Name (Even though I'm Korean.)

GuyInFreezer

Joined June 2013

GuyInFreezer 2013-11-28T19:09:48+00:00

Sephibro wrote:
Sephi: Sakura Inno
Sakura: Sephi Guilty
GIF: Sakura Guilty
Lincolm: Sakura Inno
Nyquill: Lincolm Inno

If Sephi's SK

Sakura: Paranoid
GIF: Insane
Lincolm: Naive/Sane
Nyquill: Sane/Naive

If Sakura's SK

Sephi: Naive/Insane
GIF: Paranoid
Lincolm: Naive/Insane
Nyquill: Sane

If GIF's SK

Sephi: Naive/Sane
Sakura: Paranoid and Insane
Lincolm: Naive/Sane
Nyquill: -

thus GIF is confirmed

If Lincolm is SK

Sephi: Sane
Sakura: Paranoid/Insane
GiF: Paranoid/Insane
Nyquill: Naive

If Nyquill is SK

Sephi: Naive/Sane
Sakura: Paranoid/Insane
GiF: Paranoid/Insane
Lincolm: Naive/Sane

This is how you analyze properly - tell me if i made any mistake

Assuming that this is 100% correct, that is.

"Cease to hate, learn to love. Let the love spread."
えいじんみなみ <- My Japanese Name (Even though I'm Korean.)

GuyInFreezer

Joined June 2013

GuyInFreezer 2013-11-28T19:10:36+00:00

GuyInFreezer wrote:
Ok. I'm done with the initial calculation. I'm not outing what I have in mind yet, but so far, assuming that I die tonight, my plan will net confirmed scum 87.5%.

Also, that 12.5% will get a confirmed town tomorrow.

"Cease to hate, learn to love. Let the love spread."
えいじんみなみ <- My Japanese Name (Even though I'm Korean.)

Sephibro

Joined November 2012

Sephibro 2013-11-28T19:10:50+00:00

explain, i'm listening

Sephibro

Joined November 2012

Sephibro 2013-11-28T19:11:28+00:00

let me recheck that shit

GuyInFreezer

Joined June 2013

GuyInFreezer 2013-11-28T19:12:14+00:00

I don't want to explain the whole scenario, though. If I explain, tomorrow will most likely be that 12.5%.

"Cease to hate, learn to love. Let the love spread."
えいじんみなみ <- My Japanese Name (Even though I'm Korean.)

GuyInFreezer

Joined June 2013

GuyInFreezer 2013-11-28T19:13:33+00:00

Basically, lynch Nyquill today, Sephi and Sakura check Lincolm tonight, and Lincolm check Sephi tonight.

"Cease to hate, learn to love. Let the love spread."
えいじんみなみ <- My Japanese Name (Even though I'm Korean.)

GuyInFreezer

Joined June 2013

GuyInFreezer 2013-11-28T19:15:43+00:00

Oh also, leaving me alive in that plan will boost netting confirmed scum to like 95+%, so yeah. I think I'm guaranteed to die tonight.

"Cease to hate, learn to love. Let the love spread."
えいじんみなみ <- My Japanese Name (Even though I'm Korean.)

Nyquill

osu! Alumni

Joined February 2011

Nyquill 2013-11-28T19:21:59+00:00

still a waste of a free lynch to lynch me though, but whatever catches scum in the end I guess

Sephibro

Joined November 2012

Sephibro 2013-11-28T19:24:04+00:00

No, we're No Lynching today

Sephibro

Joined November 2012

Sephibro 2013-11-28T19:24:46+00:00

even if nyquill is making me want to lynch him

GuyInFreezer

Joined June 2013

GuyInFreezer 2013-11-28T19:24:48+00:00

Sooo if we follow my plan and I die tonight, it's .25 (Nyquill scum) + .75 {.875 (confirmed scum) + (.125/2 (lynching correctly in LyLo with one confirmed town))} = 95.31%.
If we follow my plan and I don't die tonight, it's .25 + (.75 * 0.969) = 97.68%.

"Cease to hate, learn to love. Let the love spread."
えいじんみなみ <- My Japanese Name (Even though I'm Korean.)

GuyInFreezer

Joined June 2013

GuyInFreezer 2013-11-28T19:25:36+00:00

Sephibro wrote:
No, we're No Lynching today

Even with 95+% confirmed scum chance? O.O

"Cease to hate, learn to love. Let the love spread."
えいじんみなみ <- My Japanese Name (Even though I'm Korean.)

Sephibro

Joined November 2012

Sephibro 2013-11-28T19:26:03+00:00

still less than 100%

GuyInFreezer

Joined June 2013

GuyInFreezer 2013-11-28T19:26:40+00:00

There's no guarantee that NLing today and tomorrow will net scum 100%.

"Cease to hate, learn to love. Let the love spread."
えいじんみなみ <- My Japanese Name (Even though I'm Korean.)

GuyInFreezer

Joined June 2013

GuyInFreezer 2013-11-28T19:27:12+00:00

I did my math, so you show me your math now.

"Cease to hate, learn to love. Let the love spread."
えいじんみなみ <- My Japanese Name (Even though I'm Korean.)

Sephibro

Joined November 2012

Sephibro 2013-11-28T19:28:31+00:00

already done

GuyInFreezer

Joined June 2013

GuyInFreezer 2013-11-28T19:28:40+00:00

Like, if SK knows most of our sanities at this point as you said, NLing twice will have more chance on 3P LyLo with a direct cc.

"Cease to hate, learn to love. Let the love spread."
えいじんみなみ <- My Japanese Name (Even though I'm Korean.)

GuyInFreezer

Joined June 2013

GuyInFreezer 2013-11-28T19:29:41+00:00

But in my case, SK knowing the sanity of most ppl can still cause him to autolose tomorrow.

"Cease to hate, learn to love. Let the love spread."
えいじんみなみ <- My Japanese Name (Even though I'm Korean.)

GuyInFreezer

Joined June 2013

GuyInFreezer 2013-11-28T19:31:00+00:00

Sephibro wrote:
already done

Give me an exact percentage of town win, then.

"Cease to hate, learn to love. Let the love spread."
えいじんみなみ <- My Japanese Name (Even though I'm Korean.)

Sephibro

Joined November 2012

Sephibro 2013-11-28T19:34:30+00:00

calculating them would be quite difficult

do you realize that your percentages aren't exact at all?

Everything depends on who's getting nightkilled

GuyInFreezer

Joined June 2013

GuyInFreezer 2013-11-28T19:35:20+00:00

It's all accounted.
The first percentage I gave was when I get nightkilled tonight.
The second percentage I gave was when I don't get nightkilled tonight.

"Cease to hate, learn to love. Let the love spread."
えいじんみなみ <- My Japanese Name (Even though I'm Korean.)

GuyInFreezer

Joined June 2013

GuyInFreezer 2013-11-28T19:36:26+00:00

Of course, there's a possibility that scum skips a nightkill, but that's basically same as the scenario where I get killed.

"Cease to hate, learn to love. Let the love spread."
えいじんみなみ <- My Japanese Name (Even though I'm Korean.)

GuyInFreezer

Joined June 2013

GuyInFreezer 2013-11-28T19:38:57+00:00

Oh, btw, in my plan, I'm checking sephi too.

"Cease to hate, learn to love. Let the love spread."
えいじんみなみ <- My Japanese Name (Even though I'm Korean.)

GuyInFreezer

Joined June 2013

GuyInFreezer 2013-11-28T19:41:45+00:00

So here's my offer.

Lynch Nyquill
Seph -> Lincolm
Lincolm -> Seph
Sakura -> Lincolm
me -> Seph

Percentage of netting confirmed scum tomorrow: Average of 96.5%.

"Cease to hate, learn to love. Let the love spread."
えいじんみなみ <- My Japanese Name (Even though I'm Korean.)

Sephibro

Joined November 2012

Sephibro 2013-11-28T19:46:20+00:00

do what you guys want, if scum is Nyquill or Lincolm it's almost the same

as i said, i want to win this with maths, not chance, so i'm supporting nothing but No Lynch

GuyInFreezer

Joined June 2013

GuyInFreezer 2013-11-28T19:48:34+00:00

... Massclaim doesn't net confirmed scum 100% either.

"Cease to hate, learn to love. Let the love spread."
えいじんみなみ <- My Japanese Name (Even though I'm Korean.)

Sephibro

Joined November 2012

Sephibro 2013-11-28T19:52:27+00:00

masswat

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