Sephibro wrote:

Since most of us know the anime characters, we can make pretty accurate setup speculation. Why aren't we doing this already?

Furude Rika
Sonozaki Mion
Sonozaki Shion
Ryuuguu Rena
Hojou Satoko
Maebara Keiichi
^These characters are for sure in the game and they should be all town aligned (6/12)

Irie Kyousuke
Ooishi Kuraudo
^These two should be in the game, town-aligned, and their powers should be respectively doctor-like and cop-like (8/12)

Takano Miyo
Tomitake Jirou
^These two should be in the game too and they should be scum (Takano Miyo could be something like a godfather with some huge powers) (10/12)

2 more spots, i think there must be 1 more Oyashiro supporter, to be honest it could be Irie Kyousuke too.
Remaining characters are taken among these ones (I'll order from the most to the least probable):

Sonozaki Oryou there could be a "Sonozaki Family" faction too, i think we shouldn't understimate this.
Chie Rumiko town-aligned, she's the teacher so idk what role couild it be
Akasaka Mamoru town-aligned, cop-like
Kasai Tatsuyoshi town-aligned (or Sonozaki-aligned), bodyguard-like
Hojou Teppei third party, he could be a lyncher with the objective to lynch Hojou Satoko
Mamiya Rina third party, she and Hojou Teppei could be lovers
Sonozaki Akane if there's "Sonozaki Family" faction, she's in
Hojou Satoshi useless but would be town-aligned


We must consider this too: there could be characters that change their alignment when they increase Hinamizawa Syndrome level (HS)

Oh and regarding this

5.4) The mafia do not get a standard mafia kill. Instead, they have the ability to increase the HS level of multiple people.

I think that ending D1 without lynch could be a very good choice

4.5) All story flavor is completely game-irrelevant.

fartownik wrote:

Also nolynching today is no better than lynching. If we nolynch we will end up with the same stuff as D1 + potential PR information. Nolynching is always a day lost without trying to hunt scum, proposing nolynch at such early stage of the day is scummy.

Sephibro wrote:

On a second thought, my opinion is still that roles have something to do with anime, it can't be only the name. I mean, if there's a cop it's probably Ooishi, if there's a doctor it's Irie Kyousuke, and so on

fartownik wrote:

Also nolynching today is no better than lynching. If we nolynch we will end up with the same stuff as D1 + potential PR information. Nolynching is always a day lost without trying to hunt scum, proposing nolynch at such early stage of the day is scummy.

same stuff as D1 + potential PR information

+ potential PR information

and no nightkill

we're 12, scum are probably 3. the chance of getting a fundamental PR lynched is too damn high

Game Specific Info wrote:

Everyone has a certain Hizamizawa Syndrome (HS) level. This stat goes from 1-5 and begins at 2.
If this value is 5, they will commit suicide at the end of the night.
The mafia do not get a standard mafia kill. Instead, they have the ability to increase the HS level of multiple people.

fartownik wrote:

If there's 3 scum then most likely every one of them has the ability to increase the HS by 1, everyone starts with 2 so it's possible there will be a nightkill. But this is setup speculation, nothing really useful, there might be only 2 scum as well.

Sephibro wrote:

And tbh, i still think NoLynch is a good strategy for d1 in a game like this. Well, unless you want everyone to claim d1

Sephibro wrote:

the nightkill only occours when someone reaches 5 HS, I don't think that someone can reach such a high value on n1 only

rEdo wrote:

the game would we way too slow if scum couldn't add up less than 3 HS points, actually I believe it's more.

Irreversible wrote:

orly, somehow i think you don't just believe it, either you know it or so.

FoS: rEdo

rEdo wrote:

we won't gain much by massclaiming either.

Sephibro wrote:

We must consider this too: there could be characters that change their alignment when they increase Hinamizawa Syndrome level (HS)

rules wrote:

5.5) This set-up is not bastard, and therefore has none of the following: Alignment-Changing Roles or Abilities, Jesters, Cults, Misleading Roles, Unknown Role Modifiers, etc.

NoHitter wrote:

Try looking at my older games.

NoHitter wrote:

I think this could be interpreted as a "nightkill".

FoS: Sephibro

Sephibro wrote:

2. nobody else claims the same role: if that person claimed something credible, we'll vote another person, who will claim and so on

pieguy1372 wrote:

NoHitter wrote:

Try looking at my older games.

I remember you always doing RQS and the one time you didn't (Two's game) you were mafia. case in point

pieguy1372 wrote:

NoHitter wrote:

I think this could be interpreted as a "nightkill".

FoS: Sephibro

wait so when you get a reason for voting someone you instead FoS and continue without a vote? dafuq, can you explain this plz
vote: NoHItter

mb NH + Sephibro team here? it seems likely NH was afraid of people wagoning on Sephibro o.o

pieguy1372 wrote:

oh god Irre did the same thing. and rEdo FoS'ed while keeping his RVS vote. why aren't you all voting outside RVS ;w;

Sephibro wrote:

I never said i want a massclaim, quite the opposite: i want to AVOID a massclaim, which would happen if we try to random lynch as we're doing.
I'll explain better. Let's say someone gets pressured hard and is put in L-2; at this point he will claim his role, and two things can happen:
1. best case scenario: someone comes out claiming the same role. One of them two is scum
2. nobody else claims the same role: if that person claimed something credible, we'll vote another person, who will claim and so on

Irreversible wrote:

I'll surely mess up if I quote the stuff above, but what I wanna say is:

Because it's still early?
We still have more than a week to decide who we vote for.
Why are you so jumpy?
Do we lynch randomly?

These are things NoHitter just said in the text above, and shows a kinda nervous manner, imo. But I 100% agree with "Votes should be well thought out. ", that's how I wanna work as well - unfortunately I got judged by that last time.

NoHitter wrote:

OK then. Let's say we do follow your plan and NL.
A accuses B of being scum by a Night Action. B explains it because of a very credible reason.
What's next? Do we NL again? Do we lynch randomly?

DakeDekaane wrote:

Why would you want to gather possible PR info?

rEdo wrote:

that's not only the point, we will also see the associations between people - somebody's defending somebody else, who's offensive against who and such - with this we could deduce a potential scum combo, and that's the point of this game, isn't it? massclaiming is not a way to avoid that, I don't know why you even associate these things with each other.

NoHitter wrote:

Because it's still early? I can see the merit of pressure votes, but I'm not one to vote quickly unless we have sure information. Votes should be well thought out.

Sephibro wrote:

At that point 1 among A and B is scum, so we have 50% chance of lynching scum, and we'll not have a massclaim

Sephibro wrote:

(which is what probably would happen in case we decide to random lynch d1, since each role is unique).

Sephibro wrote:

Btw if you want the random lynch d1, be aware that it will probably cause a massclaim

Sephibro wrote:

Hint: don't FoS me, vote me instead if you really have a suspect

Sakura wrote:

Unvote
Vote: NoHitter

Sephibro wrote:

again, if you want to lynch d1 we better vote early, since we may have to vote for 12 people and to listen to 12 claims. Do you think it will take less than 12 days?

NoHitter wrote:

Except that's not always the case. What if there's a miller or framer?

NoHitter wrote:

How are you sure that each role is unique? The mod hasn't said anything about this being role madness.

NoHitter wrote:

Since when did a D1 random lynch equate to a D1 massclaim?

Sephibro wrote:

NoHitter wrote:

Except that's not always the case. What if there's a miller or framer?

5.5) This set-up is not bastard, and therefore has none of the following: Alignment-Changing Roles or Abilities, Jesters, Cults, Misleading Roles, Unknown Role Modifiers, etc.

Sephibro wrote:

NoHitter wrote:

How are you sure that each role is unique? The mod hasn't said anything about this being role madness.

I hope this is a joke, since every role is an anime character, do you expect being more than 1 Furude Rika, for example?

NoHitter wrote:

Irreversible wrote:

I'll surely mess up if I quote the stuff above, but what I wanna say is:

Because it's still early?
We still have more than a week to decide who we vote for.
Why are you so jumpy?
Do we lynch randomly?

These are things NoHitter just said in the text above, and shows a kinda nervous manner, imo. But I 100% agree with "Votes should be well thought out. ", that's how I wanna work as well - unfortunately I got judged by that last time.

What do you mean by nervous manner?
Also, you kind of removed the last quote out of context. It was addressed to Sephibro, not pieguy.

Sephibro wrote:

Hint: don't FoS me, vote me instead if you really have a suspect

Irreversible wrote:

this is not townlike, people taught me, why would you want people to vote you?

Sephibro wrote:

DakeDekaane wrote:

Why would you want to gather possible PR info?

because probably we have at least one investigation role

NoHItter wrote:

Because it's still early? I can see the merit of pressure votes, but I'm not one to vote quickly unless we have sure information. Votes should be well thought out.

NoHItter wrote:

How are you sure that each role is unique? The mod hasn't said anything about this being role madness.

NoHItter wrote:

We still have more than a week to decide who we vote for. Why are you so jumpy?

pieguy1372 wrote:

also, how will lynching someone on D1 lead to a massclaim?

pieguy1372 wrote:

last time people said this was in Touhou PyP IV and in the end everyone had a PR. so I don't think it even matters if the mod said it was role madness or not. then again it was my game so >< Honestly I'm thinking everyone has a PR of some sort, similarly to Touhou IV.

Sephibro wrote:

@mod:
1. each character has at least one ability or passive, am i right?
2. does each character have both passive and active ability?
3. does every character have 2 personal abilities or not? are there some with less? are there some with more?

Please answer all the questions you can

you'll see if people decide to do something (and with doing something i mean pressuring someone, NH in this case)

Sephibro wrote:

@mod: is every ability unique or more than one character can have the same ability?

Rantai wrote:

Because I fell that Caligno would not make a set up as obvious as "All main characters are definitely in and therefore confirmed not fake" (not fake because he has specifically stated that characters can be any alignment, at least that's how I read it)

pieguy1372 wrote:

NoHItter wrote:

Because it's still early? I can see the merit of pressure votes, but I'm not one to vote quickly unless we have sure information. Votes should be well thought out.

and just how do you expect to get sure information on D1?

pieguy1372 wrote:

NoHItter wrote:

We still have more than a week to decide who we vote for. Why are you so jumpy?

why can't I change my vote till then? and how am I being "jumpy"?

BRBP wrote:

Are you saying everyone's able to play any alingment exactly like they play as town? Not everyone's even aware of their own meta. While the latter doesn't apply to your massclaim attemps, it's still odd how you didn't suggest that. In all previous games you said that it's the best way to win etc, and now you're willing to skip using "the best strategy to win" just to play differently? That's not like you at all.

Rantai wrote:

The idea itself is meh but the assumptions are completely short sighted

Sephibro wrote:

1. I still think that character's alignment is coherent with the anime, so my strategy would probably be all but anti-town. And most of all, i don't see why i would propose such a reliable strategy if i were scum
2. why do i think that Rantai is scum?
[*]Because RB instantly asked for replacement as soon as he got his pc broken, even if he could still browse and post from his phone; maybe reading scum QT was too hard
[*]Because of this:

Rantai wrote:

The idea itself is meh but the assumptions are completely short sighted

The idea itself wouldn't be meh at all, it would be 100% win if my assumptions were right. Btw yes, my assumptions might be wrong, but you're still taking too much distance from that strategy. You could easily be Takano Miyo - Oyashiro Supporter wanting to throw shit on working strategies

Sephibro wrote:

Some characters are for sure in the game. If someone claims one of those roles and there's no crossclaim, i'm gonna trust him 100%
If there's a crossclaim, we're set, as at least one of the two is scum
Then there are the "outsider" roles, which are i guess 5 maybe? SCUM ARE AMONG THESE CLAIMS FOR SURE

Well gg, i just realized that massclaiming is the right strategy to win this game

@mod: is every ability unique or more than one character can have the same ability?

Sephibro wrote:

looks like i'm L-3, first claim of the game is close

Sephibro wrote:

pieguy read this topic but he didn't answer, that's suspect.

Sephibro wrote:

pieguy is the only town leaning read i have for now

Rantai wrote:

@mod - can this game's alignments be determined by the character's anime "alignments"

CalignoBot in the Original Announcement wrote:

c. Alignments in this universe's canon will not be relevant in this setup.
c. To be absolutely clear: Any character can be any alignment.

CalignoBot wrote:

c. To be absolutely clear: Any character can be any alignment.

Sephibro wrote:

Since most of us know the anime characters, we can make pretty accurate setup speculation. Why aren't we doing this already?

Furude Rika
Sonozaki Mion
Sonozaki Shion
Ryuuguu Rena
Hojou Satoko
Maebara Keiichi
^These characters are for sure in the game and they should be all town aligned (6/12)

CalignoBot in the Original Announcement wrote:

c. Alignments in this universe's canon will not be relevant in this setup.
c. To be absolutely clear: Any character can be any alignment.

If no, I don't need to say anymore.

Irreversible wrote:

you put tons of scumpartners

NoHItter wrote:

I think you misread what I wrote. I said that I wouldn't vote someone quickly unless there was sure information. Since it's D1 and we have no sure information, I won't vote quickly.

Sephibro wrote:

Sakura + Rantai for scum imo

Sephibro wrote:

re-read all my posts and you'll see that there's no incoherence in my thoughts

NoHitter wrote:

Sephibro wrote:

pieguy read this topic but he didn't answer, that's suspect.

Sephibro wrote:

pieguy is the only town leaning read i have for now

pieguy1372 wrote:

no, I didn't. :> I wanna know how you intend to find out who the mafia are by playing like this. without voting people to pressure them or get information, it becomes much harder to get "sure" information, at least IMO.

Sephibro wrote:

Actually i wanted to AVOID a massclaim until i thought about that last strategy, but since

CalignoBot wrote:

c. To be absolutely clear: Any character can be any alignment.

knowing this, it is clear that a massclaim would be completely useless

Sephibro wrote:

Btw i can tell you that my role's abilities and alignment are the same as anime character's, that's why i supposed it was like this for every character in the game and made those posts

rEdo wrote:

don't wanna defend him or anything, but that could've gone out of curiousity. still, I have no idea what we're going to get even if everybody claims. in this game even Satoko could be scum, just for the shiggles, so setup speculation is pretty much useless at this point of the game.

DakeDekaane wrote:

I love how I'm being ignored.

Irreversible wrote:

And are you going to tell the reasons why?

Irreversible wrote:

This might sound stupid now, but may I ask why i have a townread? People tend to trick me with that, so that's what gives be a slight scumread about you. Nevertheless, it's good that you're scumhunting.