...dafuq
0.0

okay I have no idea what to even think anymore @_@ Given a Ninja, I always thought a Watcher was plausible (although fartownik might be mafia still)

DakeDekaane wrote:

Even in the worst case, we'll end 4:3, yes, LyLo, but we'll have 100% chance of hitting scum, as scummy people will clearly stand out, even find a liar in the PRs, if there is any.

where'd you get that from? o.o mafia could still be hiding in PRs or we could mislynch a townie.

We need to hurry up and do something instead of arguing over anything Sakura did w/ the setup. DakeDekaane blamed inactivity the first time I accused him which is a pretty common mafia excuse from what I can remember (hiding behind inactivity, etc.) Also, voting no-lynch is never a good idea unless it's MyLo. JInxy still hasn't been posting very much, which is the same as I remember him always doing as mafia. There hasn't really been very much new information.

Fixed Quote tags, you can always ask me to fix tags for you
-Sakura

EBWOP: dafuq, what happened to my quote o.o

DakeDekaane wrote:

Even in the worst case, we'll end 4:3, yes, LyLo, but we'll have 100% chance of hitting scum, as scummy people will clearly stand out, even find a liar in the PRs, if there is any.

I've stated my view on the suspects and the possible scenarios depending on what Dake flips. Nothing more to add from here. The non-voters should clarify their suspects and votes right now, otherwise we will stay like this with days of inactivity until the deadline. I really hate such boring mafia parts.

I finally found his flip flop. p/2396642/ (Thanks Jinxy)

Still not entirely sure about DD.

DD, why did you say he was town first and then anti town later?

Internet went off some tiime ;~;

Elaborating as you requested:

Suppose we have 4 town and 3 scum, in three scenarios RB shot a townie:

Scenario 1: Scum hit a confirmed town.
1 confirmed (either Rantai/RB)
2 PR (pieguy/fart)
4 non-PR (Haneii/Jinxy/Irre/DD/Tanz)
I'm assuming Tanz is town and the two somehow confirmed too, that left us 3 non-PR (I want to believe so), yes I threw the WIFOM thing, but I'm believing too much in them. Depending on who gets shot, it's easy to lynch by PoE, even if scum is in the 2 somehow unconfirmed PR.

Scenario 2: Scum hit pieguy/fartownik.
2 confirmed (either Rantai/RB)
1 PR (pieguy/fart)
4 non-PR (Haneii/Jinxy/Irre/DD/Tanz)
The less likely as scum would want to make WIFOM. But basically the same as above,

Scenario 3: Scum hit a vanilla:
2 confirmed (either Rantai/RB):
2 PR (pieguy/fart):
3 non-PR (Haneii/Jinxy/Irre/DD/Tanz)
We have scum in PR as it'd be too perfect that the three remaining non-PR are scum together. We'd pick either pieguy/fart looking at their behaviour. Take in mind that if pieguy is scum, fart is scum.

Why I said 100%? Scum needs to convince 1 more people (or 2 in case Traitor isn't recruited). We'll just have to look for the voting pattern.

But that's only if we are 4:3 in D3.

About my flip-flop thingy, I explained a bit below that: p/2397890

@Dake: concentrate more on the potential targets for the lynch today instead of writing up the possible scenarios of tommorrow. We must focus on minimalizing the possibility of lynching scum today and what you're doing is not helpful at the moment. What are your main scumspects? Also, what do you think about Irre and JInxy?

So we're just going to assume that the claimed PR are town? No.

The scum will almost definitely hit RB or I because we're confirmed. If they don't then they're shooting themselves in the foot (which is fine by me).

About you PR's; I'd rather RB didn't shoot anyone tonight, pieguy should jail one of us (RB/me) fart, watch one of us (pie, me or RB).

Vote: DD

I've got nothing else to work with.

Fine I won't shoot. I'll listen to you this time since I didn't in D1. I don't want to be roasted beef for D3

not shooting is better:
currently 3:6 -> mislynch -> 3:5 -> NK -> 3:4 = LyLo
if you shoot and miss it's 3:3 and we lose ><
even if we lynch mafia, it'd be better to not shoot since it'll be the same thing with one less mafia and one less townie, either way shooting wrong after any mislynch will be a loss.

hm, I am still unsure about DD.

dammit, jinxy is just one hour away from being prodable ;_; I would've liked him to elaborate on the situation, since he didn't post that much this day.

haneii also didn't post in nearly 2 days, but I think she is town, so no prodding measures for now.

and irre... well I don't think we can prod/pressure him, since he doesn't play anymore.

so effectively we can't get any information out of anyone who didn't already explained himself. I will hold back my vote for now (sorry fart :/), as I think that outright killing DD now is a bad idea.

also yea, RB shouldn't shoot. maybe if we lynch scum, but even then probably not.

Tanzklaue wrote:

so effectively we can't get any information out of anyone who didn't already explained himself. I will hold back my vote for now (sorry fart :/), as I think that outright killing DD now is a bad idea.

Then please elaborate. Why not DD? Who else if not him? Just provide something. The lynch is always an open case until the hammer, even with 3 votes on the suspect. If you have some good notices then elaborate.

we are 9 people. it takes 5 to lynch.

voting DD now would make him L-1, and I don't think we should lynch him yet, as long as we still have over 3 days until the deadline. 3 days in which irre maybe gets replaced and we finally can get something out of him that makes sense. 3 days in which someone might slip. 3 days to discuss theories, to find out more. it wouldn't benefit town if we would let this time slip by unused.

I think it would be nice to hear explained thoughts from everyone, and how they think about lynching DD preemptively, stuff like that. voting DD doesn't make sense, because I don't think that even more pressure on him would lead to anything productive from his side.

we still can lynch DD later if nobody else is as suspicios as him. but for the moment, I think we should at least not end the day right now.

that's a good idea, I'm perfectly fine with that I just hope it doesn't become inactive...
I definitely think we should wait for Irre to be replaced, cause that'll be one extra piece of information we can get as opposed to ending day now. the only problem is, at this rate replacing Irre might be impossible ><

I don't get the DD scenario honestly, that seems to be running on the assumption that we No Lynch today and RB misfires, which will bring us to lylo tomorrow, and we'd hit the same thing if we mislynch and RB doesn't fire.

Also, assuming we lynch scum, it goes to 2:6, NK brings it to 2:5, and a misfire (71%) drops it to 2:4 which is mylo and effectively 2:3 lylo since the best course of action is no-lynch. Yeah, not shooting tonight seems good.

Please let me know if you see any mistakes

CalignoBot replaces Irreversible, effective immediately

Welcome.

Greetings.

I will read up at some point later today. My brain isn't in thinking mode for the day yet.

I've skimmed a bit of the past page before I went to sleep last night and it looks like the situation's a bit involved. If someone could summarize what that situation is right now, it would help my reread.

We all claimed our roles in D1. From alive, we have: 2 confirmed Townies (Raging Bull as Vigilante and Rantai as Mason), 2 claimed, not-yet confirmed PRs (me as Watcher and pieguy as Jailkeeper) plus 5 unconfirmed Vanilla Townies (JInxyjem, Haneii, DakeDekaane, Tanzklaue, you).

Day1's lynch was a Vanilla Townie - NoHitter whom came up with the plan of massclaiming. N1 RB used his Vigilante and missed, killing another Vanilla Townie - rEdo. There was also a third kill from the Mafia themselves, a Mason + Cop (a confirmed Townie) - BRBP.

We're struggling about today's lynch at the moment, leaning for DakeDekaane with 3 votes on him already (it takes 5 vote to hammer and end the day). We were waiting for Irreversible's replacement before hammering though, and here you are, the fifth element ( ). Reading all the pages is a must if you want to catch up with the game, we will give you some time for that. Please provide your read on the situation when you're done.

EBWOP: The current count of alignments is: 3 Mafia (including 1 Traitor) and 6 Townies (including 2 100% confirmed Townies).

Excellent. That helps me quite a bit, actually. There's a few notes I have just from that information before I start reading. I have no idea at this point if they were already discussed or not, so bear with me.

1. PR lynch today is bad for obvious reasons. If this HAS been discussed, the first person to bring this up gets townpoints from me.

2. Since there was no extra information given about the Watcher or Jailkeeper, I'm assuming that the former saw nothing (and it's already obvious the jailkeeper didn't protect anyone). I'm going to think about this while I read; I have a few ideas on how to go about this N2, but this relies a lot on my own reads, so I won't go into it quite yet.

3. I would roughly estimate that one unproven PR is town and the other is scum. I can see both of them being town, but I don't see both of them being scum as very likely.

Alright, going to read up. I'll give my updated thoughts when I'm finished.

In the meantime, there's a few hours less than 3 days until deadline (2 days 20 hours to be exact) if you need i can extend the deadline by 24 hours to give you time to catch up

That shouldn't be necessary; I'm already halfway through. Chances are I'll be fully caught up within the next 1-2 hours.

Okay, going to take a break for a little bit now that I'm done with reading Day 1.

Here are my current reads:

fartownik and pieguy1372 are both probably town. I can't really choose one that's more likely to be scum if there is one between them: fartownik's claim is the single safest one (information roles in general are the safest in this set-up; they literally cannot be confirmed town or scum while alive), while pieguy made scummier stances in day 1.

I disapprove of the current wagon right now.

Haneii is my first choice for scum. Jinxy is my second choice for scum. Tanzklaue is almost certainly town.

I'll get more into these when I have read the rest, and a vote will accompany it. The one thing I've seen held against Dake in day 1 is actually looking more town to me. Yes, he flipped, but the flip is actually town-motivated rather than scum-motivated.

More soon.

Day 1 notes:

There's a big problem with NoHitter's version of the plan which makes Jinxy's posts about the advantages useless: Mafia can falsely claim PRs with actually pretty low risk. They know exactly how many PRs the town have, so they just falsely claim how many the town don't have so that it adds up to five. There's virtually no risk in that, and in fact only gives the mafia any kind of risk when the PRs have to be named. Not only that, but it leaves the amount of PRs completely ambiguous for town. Overall, I think this play benefited scum far more than it did town. If the mafia ended up choosing daychat, it would be even easier to manipulate this to their own ends.

Tanzklaue gets townpoints for pointing this logic train out very early. It would have been very easy for scum to go along with this, but he actively went against it.

The other main point given for this massclaim is that scum will be a target after all the PRs die. This is a completely void point, since scum wouldn't dare put the amount of claims above five. No matter how many PRs end up dying, the others are no more or less confirmed than before by that alone.

Okay, now I see that the masons weren't included in the PR list. This changes things in my head quite a bit. Since now I know that mafia didn't inflate the amount of PRs to five like I had thought, I'm starting to feel that every PR is genuine.

NoHitter's plan of going for suspicious claims, then going among the non-PRs is... iffy. It's a lot more prudent to confirm as many of the PRs as possible (and/or catch scum in a lie) while lynching among the townies. There's really no reason to go for PRs first, ESPECIALLY doubles. Doubles should definitely wait until later in the game except for mason pairs.

Sadly, NoHitter and fartonik are completely correct at the bottom of page seven. While the plan itself was completely suboptimal, the worst possible scenario is to stop it halfway through.

BRBP's avatar scared the hell out of me.

I'm not really liking Haneii. His posts have been pretty off up to where I'm at; page 13. His push on Tanzklaue was rather meh and his current push on Hika is also pretty meh. Him stating that everyone else that isn't confirmed town or Tanz/NH as null is really meh too.

Jinxy is starting to ping to me as well.

The Jailkeeper claim is really town.

DakeDekaane's post trying to put suspicion on Hika for the JK claim is pinging me.

pieguy1372 trying to guess at BRBP's role in his catch-up post is giving me red flags. Scum are much more interested in knowing what BRBP's role is. I'm still leaning town on this slot, but that can easily change if this slot pings me any more.

Okay, from what I can tell, DakeDekaane is getting fire on page 20 for saying that BRBP shouldn't claim his role. Dake's stance on that is actually the most town one. Like I said above, scum are more interested in knowing BRBP's role right away: Scum have an unknown that could easily get them caught no matter what they try, while town would want it hidden because that's information that's virtually useless to them.

---

Everything below the line is day 2 stuff.

fartownik claiming a no-result N1 is HUGE. I'll get into this more in my next post after I've finished my thoughts. I agree that jailing BRBP was the most optimal play, but what ended up happening is definitely not a bad alternative.

I'm honestly not getting a whole lot reads-wise from the Day 2 stuff. What I said in my last post still applies. I'm going to do some thinking now.

[b:08852]Vote: Haneii[/b:08852]

Please bear with my chain-posting, I believe it's more readable this way.

Let's try that again.

Vote: Haneii

Hopefully it takes this time.

This post is my suggested plan of attack for night choices. I promise I will stop posting for a bit after this and let other people start having posts on this page.

We have prime opportunities to get information right now. Assuming that both PRs are town, which I believe is the case, then we are in great shape. This is the best option for N2:

fartownik watches one confirmed town (mason), while pieguy1372 jails the vigilante. Most likely, the watched target is going to die.

There's several possibilities for mason death:

If we lynch scum today and fartownik gets a tangible result, the result is lynched. Either we lynch scum, or we lynch town and fartownik gets vigged that night (either dying or being confirmed bulletproof or JOAT). Either way, we get a scum.

If we lynch scum today and fartownik gets no result: Still a 2v5 endgame, which is pretty nice. We don't have a whole lot of information from this alone, but my suggested plan for N3 still works.

If we lynch town today and fartownik gets a tangible result, then it's a gamble. We can either lynch one of fartownik and his target (50-50 change) or one of the people that aren't fartownik and his target (also a 50-50 chance). Either way, it gets kind of rough here.

If we lynch town today and fartownik gets no result: I'll be honest; this is a really bad situation. A town win from here would be really impressive.

This is listed from best to worst.

I won't go into what happens if someone besides the watched target dies. There's so many possibilities that it's completely useless trying to analyze it before it happens. Plus, we still have two confimred town at this point. Even if we end up lynching town, we are still more likely to lynch scum than town the following days. Watcher on jailkeeper and jailkeeper targetting a townie without revealing who works well here.

---

Either way, assuming that we reach N3 and the mason dies N2, the only real thing both PRs should do is to target the vigilante.

If we follow this plan, then we will have at least one confirmed town in D4. The only way we won't is if, again, both unproven PRs are scum, in which case we just win the game (since there would only be two scum left).

I fully recommend we keep the vigilante alive as long as possible instead of the mason. Keeping our options open is always a plus.

Good piece of content, Caligno. Good replacement for Irreversible.

CalignoBot wrote:

fartownik watches one confirmed town (mason), while pieguy1372 jails the vigilante. Most likely, the watched target is going to die.

Do you really think Mafia would just go over Rantai if they knew I'm currently watching him? That'd be a direct expose of scum, you know. If they know I'm going to Watch Rantai they will probably just change the target to avoid getting caught (unless I'm missing something?). If this is done then me or pieguy would most likely be nightkilled as we are the remaining PRs without any protection.

I might not have explained well enough why that is the most likely result. I think I explained my whole thought process behind that, albeit in a somewhat messy way, but I can explain that part of it in another post if it's still confusing.

Will be unavailable for approximately 14hours

CalignoBot wrote:

I might not have explained well enough why that is the most likely result. I think I explained my whole thought process behind that, albeit in a somewhat messy way, but I can explain that part of it in another post if it's still confusing.

Well, it'd be nice if you elaborated on this. Why would scum risk getting caught (or more like, conciously going into a trap) by killing a target aimed by Watcher?

fartownik wrote:

CalignoBot wrote:

I might not have explained well enough why that is the most likely result. I think I explained my whole thought process behind that, albeit in a somewhat messy way, but I can explain that part of it in another post if it's still confusing.

Well, it'd be nice if you elaborated on this. Why would scum risk getting caught (or more like, conciously going into a trap) by killing a target aimed by Watcher?

Rantai wrote:

The scum will almost definitely hit RB or I because we're confirmed. If they don't then they're shooting themselves in the foot (which is fine by me).

I assume it's because if they shoot you or pieguy (or a VT if they're retarded) instead, then we'll still have 2 alive confirmed-towns which significantly pushes the odds into our favour.

But, are those 'odds into Town favor' worth more than still having all Mafia hidden? (I mean for scum of course)

There's several possible reasons why scum would go for the mason anyway.

1. If they have a ninja; they can kill off a confirmed town while giving no concrete information in return.
2. If fartownik is scum, he can just make up whatever result he wants. This is the other possibility that makes this not concrete.
3. If neither of the above are true, then the other options aren't that great either:

a. fartownik is the target of the nightkill; worst possible target, as now pieguy is confirmed town. Even if we used up our mislynch today, there's 3 confirmed town and 4 unconfirmed town, 3 of which are scum. That's giving town an unnecessary advantage.

b. pieguy dying reduces options. Keeping both unconfirmed PRs alive helps scum because the possibility of both being scum is a really powerful advantage for them to keep around. If town suddenly knows for a fact that there are a minimum of two mafia in the VT pile, then there's no inherent risk of lynching from the VT pile twice since there's not a chance that there's only one scum in that pile (which having both PRs alive would prevent). It would have the same type of situation as both PRs being alive where there would be a choice to go for the PR or VT, but it happens where there's more information present.

c1. Shooting one of the VTs; both PRs are town: This is extremely risky, especially if both of the PRs are town. The next night, the Jailkeeper can choose a target of his choice (without making note of it beforehand in thread) and the Watcher targets one of the other PRs in the same way (also without making note of it beforehand). Suddenly, in this situation, the scum have to rely on dumb luck for a kill to go through without the person committing it getting caught. There's a 50% chance the kill will just be straight-up blocked (4 VTs going into night, 3 VTs going into day, 2 VTs going into night), and even then there's a 33% chance of the Watcher catching that scum anyways unless there's a ninja. Whether one or both are scum is moot; it's a very risky situation to get into.

c2. Shooting one of the VTs; both PRs are scum: Honestly, this really isn't much different than if they shot the mason. The only real change is that one of the confirmed town dies a day later. Mafia literally cannot allow BOTH the vigilante and mason to get to day 4 (assuming 2 deaths a day cicle, this is when there's 5 people left). That is literally just making the game difficult for yourself needlessly.

However, I don't think it's overly likely that both PRs are scum. Just having the game play out the way it did with a farto-pieguy-? scumteam is a huge enough risk that I don't think it would've been even attempted by very many people. Scum (non-PR group) really don't have any good options if they don't have a ninja.

Please let me know if you see any mistakes

CalignoBot wrote:

Okay, from what I can tell, DakeDekaane is getting fire on page 20 for saying that BRBP shouldn't claim his role.

Where exactly? At the very least I don't remember using that as an argument for or against.

Unvote Vote: Jinxy

His ISO is rife with parroting and/or jumping in behind another accusation. As much as I don't like DD's play so far, Jinxy is even more uncomfortable. That and he was still one of the non voters and first for the plan so I'm more or less satisfied with that for now (explanation can merely be a cover, considering the insight provided).

Hi CalignoBot o/

CalignoBot wrote:

Jinxy is starting to ping to me as well.

Why?
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

I don't see Mafia targeting mason if they know they'll be watched (Yeah, you listed other scenarios and their odds - which, by the way, get better if we accidentally lynch town today - but mafia would prob jump at taking those risks than willingly falling into this town "trap" ie: letting themselves get caught by the watcher). And if they do go ahead with the kill, they'll probably have a ninja so watching for them is pointless.

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

CalignoBot wrote:

I fully recommend we keep the vigilante alive as long as possible instead of the mason.

Until when? Might work if he was still hidden, but mafia will prob just kill him when we need to use him (Mafia's shots occur first, right?).

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


We need a better night plan for the PRs if we lynch town...




[In preparation for if we hit sucm today] We should probably decide on who we all think is the next most suspicious (right after the person we lynch today) and that person should be targeted by Jailkeeper.

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

My thoughts haven't changed much from my last post so:

Vote: Jinxy

First of all, sorry for the long inactivity, I got all my pending stuff irl done, so I'm quite free now, welcome CalignoBot, nice summary o/

Though I think it's pretty late I'll respond what fartownik asked:

fartownik wrote:

@Dake: concentrate more on the potential targets for the lynch today instead of writing up the possible scenarios of tommorrow. We must focus on minimalizing the possibility of lynching scum today and what you're doing is not helpful at the moment. What are your main scumspects? Also, what do you think about Irre and JInxy?

You guys asked to elaborate so I did. My main suspects atm are Haneii and Jinxy.

Irre was quite inactive and gave me scumread due his unexplained vote on NH, but now that he got a replacement, I'll be reading him until I get a clear read, for now, CalignoBot looks townie for bringing a really nice summary and some points to considerate, I shall agree on keeping Watcher on Rantai.
Jinxy is a bit null for me, leaning town for explaining what town could obtain from NH's plan, but then he stayed a bit quiet.

Now:

Haneii wrote:

[In preparation for if we hit sucm today] We should probably decide on who we all think is the next most suspicious (right after the person we lynch today) and that person should be targeted by Jailkeeper.

What if scum recruited the traitor? The two remaining would be like: "Hey, I'm going to be jailed" "Ok, I'll make the kill". It's not a nice course of action.

And why did you say things get better by accidentally lynching town? Accidentally lynching a town means a lynching a VT, yes, it increases the odds for town, but if scum hit a confirmed town, we'll be 1 confirmed, 2 PR and 4 non-PR, assuming we'd not take the risk of making RB shoot, which would be pretty the same as today, tho we would look for the behaviour of everyone. The thing that frightened me a bit is how you are wording that. (I know I stated the same scenario before, but it's too different when it's caused by mislynching than a vig shot).

DakeDekaane wrote:

What if scum recruited the traitor?

DakeDekaane wrote:

And why did you say things get better by accidentally lynching town?

What if they didn't?
Mafia's odds. Specifically the the odds mentioned in CalignoBot's scenarios where someone besides Mason is targeted. If we lynch town the odds in some of those scenarios get better for mafia, so I don't think they're a good argument for "Mafia will most likely target the mason tonight". I don't necessarily agree with these odds, DakeDekaane, I'm just posting my thoughts about them.

EBWOP:



"What if they didn't?" is my response to your first question at me. Sorry >.>

Please let me know if you see any mistakes

@Haneii: If the mason ends up surviving the night, then that's completely fine with me. The logic of not bothering with watching one of the confirmed town doesn't work. It gives scum an ultimatum where they have to either give up one of their own for it or let both confirmed town live if they don't have a ninja. At the bare minimum, we narrow down possibilities. I can't think of a reliable way to get information from the night actions if we don't do this.

Telling the Jailkeeper who to target offensively is not a good idea either; all scum has to do is select someone else to make the kill. If we're doing it at all, the jailing will be secret.

I'll explain Jinxy scumread when I skim through a second time. I have a really bad habit of noting things for myself without any context whatsoever.

CalignoBot wrote:

Telling the Jailkeeper who to target offensively is not a good idea either; all scum has to do is select someone else to make the kill. If we're doing it at all, the jailing will be secret.

But there's only one mafia to do the kill.

Haneii wrote:

[In preparation for if we hit sucm today] We should probably decide on who we all think is the next most suspicious (right after the person we lynch today) and that person should be targeted by Jailkeeper.

Oh, and right there when I said scum I was referring to Mafia. Won't work if we lynch traitor today.


Like I posted earlier, I'm assuming the traitor was NOT recruited.

CalignoBot wrote:

I'll explain Jinxy scumread when I skim through a second time.

Just give me your thoughts from the top of your head. My behaviour and actions were "meh" to you. What did you get from Jinxy?

We can't assume that the traitor wasn't recruited for planning night actions, though. We have no knowledge of that, so it always has to be taken into account.

Jinxy scumread is on the page 13 post. The statement that he is suspicious of people without finding them scummy doesn't sound genuine to me.

Rantai wrote:

His ISO is rife with parroting and/or jumping in behind another accusation. As much as I don't like DD's play so far, Jinxy is even more uncomfortable. That and he was still one of the non voters and first for the plan so I'm more or less satisfied with that for now (explanation can merely be a cover, considering the insight provided).

Wait, which parts are? The things I can remember agreeing with are the massclaim and the reads on Dake.
Also, I didn't vote D1 because I felt NH was town and at that point he was already at like L-1 or 2, so if someone else had to talk, he could first before ending the day.

Haneii wrote:

DakeDekaane wrote:

What if scum recruited the traitor?

What if they didn't?/quote]
This is a negative proof fallacy, if mafia did recruit the traitor, then your plan falls completely flat and we've wasted the JK for the night. We have no way of telling right now so this sounds like an attempt to waste the JK.
The fact that Haneii also voted on me right after Rantai while claiming the reason was in her previous post, is really raising my suspicions because she could have voted any time instead of waiting for another person.

Vote: Haneii

CalignoBot wrote:

We can't assume that the traitor wasn't recruited for planning night actions, though. We have no knowledge of that, so it always has to be taken into account.

Why do we have to keep it in account? At the very least it'll help us confirm that the traitor was recruited (In that case I'm going to guess their other power is Day chat, so we won't have to worry about a ninja anymore).


Yes, nearly everything I'm saying is based on assumptions, but so our yours, CalignoBot.

To add on: If you're wrong and the traitor was recruited, you also just gave him a free kill for the conf town since checking/protecting them needs both JK and Watcher

Jinxy wrote:

This is a negative proof fallacy, if mafia did recruit the traitor, then your plan falls completely flat and we've wasted the JK for the night. We have no way of telling right now so this sounds like an attempt to waste the JK.

Haneii wrote:

At the very least it'll help us confirm that the traitor was recruited

And how is it a waste? What is the JK going to be doing tonight?

Jinxy wrote:

The fact that Haneii also voted on me right after Rantai while claiming the reason was in her previous post, is really raising my suspicions because she could have voted any time instead of waiting for another person.

Day 2 ends in little over a day. I work all day and only have the evenings to posts...so yeah. Why I waited to vote? I wanted to hear more for others (including you) before making my vote.

Jinxy wrote:

To add on: If you're wrong and the traitor was recruited, you also just gave him a free kill for the conf town since checking/protecting them needs both JK and Watcher

Free kill? How do you know who to protect?

I'd make the JK protect somebody with no telling who, wasting a night just to know if there's a Traitor or not is useless, and allows scum to throw WIFOM.

Even if they didn't recruit Traitor, they could mislead us to lynch a townie in case we jail the wrong person.

The confirmed town, Rantai and RB, in Caligno's post. The plan was to force scum to either sacrifice 1 guy to kill a conf, or don't kill a conf and push the odds into town favour.

DakeDekaane wrote:

I'd make the JK protect somebody with no telling who

Why and then what?

DakeDekaane wrote:

Even if they didn't recruit Traitor, they could mislead us to lynch a townie in case we jail the wrong person.

If they didn't recruit the traitor there won't be a kill and we have an opportunity to catch our first mafia...

Jinxy wrote:

The confirmed town, Rantai and RB, in Caligno's post. The plan was to force scum to either sacrifice 1 guy to kill a conf, or don't kill a conf and push the odds into town favour.

Sorry, I don't agree that not killing a confirmed town pushes the odds in town favour that much in this point of time - they can just kill of the least suspicious after conf. town. They can afford to kill someone else tonight and we'd still be in as much as in dark as we are now.

Here's the thing; we have to have the watcher secretly choose between the two confirmed town and the jailkeeper. The glaring issue with this is that there is a case where we have literally no information -> if the watch and jail both miss (which is a pretty decent probability, actually; 49.5% by my calculations), then we gain nothing. We don't know anything about what the scum have chosen, nothing. That's a really hefty percentage to base this on.

Naturally, killing the Watcher is very suboptimal. All that really achieves is confirming the jailkeeper as town.

EBWOP:

Haneii wrote:

If they didn't recruit the traitor there won't might not be a kill and we have an opportunity to catch our first mafia...

CalignoBot wrote:

Here's the thing; we have to have the watcher secretly choose between the two confirmed town and the jailkeeper. The glaring issue with this is that there is a case where we have literally no information -> if the watch and jail both miss (which is a pretty decent probability, actually; 49.5% by my calculations), then we gain nothing. We don't know anything about what the scum have chosen, nothing. That's a really hefty percentage to base this on.

Naturally, killing the Watcher is very suboptimal. All that really achieves is confirming the jailkeeper as town.

So what is the JK doing during all this?

wow, I honestly don't know what to say :/

I am really wonky about all three, haneii, jinxy and DD now. they all suddenly jumped out of the woods after getting votes on them. I think at least one of them is scum, and their is the possibility of one of them being traitor.

looking at the votes, haneii votes jinxy, and jinxy votes haneii back. that's not really helpful, "he did it"-shenanigans won't help us. even as useless is the no lynch vote of DD.

all of them have a fair amount of pressure on them, so it's understandable that they defend themselves.

I wanted to vote jinxy since I agree on the suspicions against him, but on the last page haneii did some really weird argumentations. then again, a similiar kind of play got NH lynched.

I am really confused. this is definetly too much for a firsttimer like me, especially at 3 am.

I think we can ignore the scenarios of pieguy and fart being scum. why? because I think a win is flatout impossible from this point on.

caligno could be scum, since he brought confusion, but honestly, I just think that he is by far the best mafiaplayer in the round, so he probably is just a really good townie.

haneii, JK keeps RB alive I think. since bringing one confirmed townie through is better than nothing and RB shouldn't shoot anyone anyways.

Derp. The JK in that situation is doing what you suggested.

we cannot assume that there is a traitor in the game for planning blindly ahead, haneii. we are at a critical phase of the game, and blindly assuming things won't help us.

RB should be jailkept, Rantai should be watched. as long as fartownik isn't scum, the things that happen from that can't be too bad I think.

Oh, that derp was towards myself. Not at anyone else.

Tanzklaue wrote:

RB should be jailkept, Rantai should be watched. as long as fartownik isn't scum, the things that happen from that can't be too bad I think.

Because obviously they'll be compelled to target either RB or Rantai, especially after CalignoBot repeatedly said they would? Hey, I guess it could happen.

CalignoBot wrote:

we have to have the watcher secretly choose between the two confirmed town and the jailkeeper. The glaring issue with this is that there is a case where we have literally no information -> if the watch and jail both miss (which is a pretty decent probability, actually; 49.5% by my calculations), then we gain nothing.

Because obviously watchers and jailkeepers only target people they already know are 100% scum? Of course there's a chance they could miss >.> There's also a chance that mafia won't go after any of the PR or conf. town. Chances chances chance~

what is this I don't even
Trying to predict scum's target is just a bunch of WIFOM. IMO we should play the safest possible path and avoid taking any unnecessary risks. there's no need to keep RB alive "just cause he's the vigilante" because I'm pretty sure at this point it's most advantageous for him not to shoot anyone else anyway.

Rantai is confirmed town, so we've got two options:

1. 1. Keep Rantai alive to give us a better chance on D3
   If we assume both me and fartownik are confirmed, option 1 gives us a 3/5 chance of hitting mafia D3 (Rantai + one confirmed alive D3).
   
2. 2. JK and watch two people and hope we find out something or prevent a NK
   This gives a bit more room to cover all possibilities (e.g. fartownik watches one of RB, Rantai, or me, and I JK one out of the remaining 4). There's also the chance I roleblock a mafia and stop the NK from happening. Mafia can't WIFOM us because either way they decide, there's a chance they fail. Hell, I could even JK fartownik with a low probability in order to ensure they don't just kill fartownik.

thoughts?

pieguy1372 wrote:

so we've got two options:

1. 1. Keep Rantai alive to give us a better chance on D3
   If we assume both me and fartownik are confirmed, option 1 gives us a 3/5 chance of hitting mafia D3 (Rantai + one confirmed alive D3).
   
2. 2. JK and watch two people and hope we find out something or prevent a NK
   This gives a bit more room to cover all possibilities (e.g. fartownik watches one of RB, Rantai, or me, and I JK one out of the remaining 4). There's also the chance I roleblock a mafia and stop the NK from happening. Mafia can't WIFOM us because either way they decide, there's a chance they fail. Hell, I could even JK fartownik with a low probability in order to ensure they don't just kill fartownik.

thoughts?

Plan 2 if we lynch mafia.

Plan 1 if we lynch town.

pieguy1372 wrote:

what is this I don't even
Trying to predict scum's target is just a bunch of WIFOM. IMO we should play the safest possible path and avoid taking any unnecessary risks. there's no need to keep RB alive "just cause he's the vigilante" because I'm pretty sure at this point it's most advantageous for him not to shoot anyone else anyway.

Rantai is confirmed town, so we've got two options:

1. 1. Keep Rantai alive to give us a better chance on D3
   If we assume both me and fartownik are confirmed, option 1 gives us a 3/5 chance of hitting mafia D3 (Rantai + one confirmed alive D3).
   
2. 2. JK and watch two people and hope we find out something or prevent a NK
   This gives a bit more room to cover all possibilities (e.g. fartownik watches one of RB, Rantai, or me, and I JK one out of the remaining 4). There's also the chance I roleblock a mafia and stop the NK from happening. Mafia can't WIFOM us because either way they decide, there's a chance they fail. Hell, I could even JK fartownik with a low probability in order to ensure they don't just kill fartownik.

thoughts?

Swap me for RB and I'm fine with either or just because I have no utility at all while RB can save us as a last ditch chance.

We should keep the utility alive, regardless of whether we think it will ever be needed again or not. If we get into a situation where the vig can shoot (example, we go into night with odd numbers and two town kills will not immediately end the game), then at least being able to consider the option is better than not having it at all.

I'll look closer at day 2 stuff tomorrow; I have reads that need to be updated and my brain has already shut off for the night.

sorry, can't think, I forgot RB was 100% confirmed too. LOL

In that case we might as well keep RB in plan 1 instead, and we'll have another confirmed townie D3 for a worst case 3/5 (60%) chance...seems pretty good to me 0.0

If fart/pieguy mafia, I called it because of confusing OP


At this point, I'm kinda convinced Calingo is town. Only leaves with DD/Tanz/Haneii/Jinxy.

Haneii...Somehow just gut feeling. sorry pieguy. Looking perhaps too pro town when posting a lot and especially quoting what a lot of people says and puts her own opinion forward.

Tanz, still looks pretty town for me.

DD, null. As much as the flip flop goes, I don't really see it as a really big deal like some do. Plus the flip flop wasn't that big. His first post about NH leaning town still had a "not denying he's scum still" kinda thing.

Jinxy, null.

Ok, so if I've got this right, the current suggested plans are:

Caligno's
JK RB and Watch Rantai
Motive: Force scum to either sacrifice to kill Conf or kill Unconf PR/VT and leave more Confs alive


Haneii's / pieguy's option 2
On scum lynch, JK most scummy person and Watch the 2 PRs + Confs randomly (?)
Motive: Prevent a kill/Check for traitor recruitment


pieguy's option 1
On mislynch, JK RB and Watch pieguy or Rantai randomly (?)
Motive: To have more conf town (?)

(?) Because I'm not sure of those things


Caligno's plan fails if a Ninja exists or farto is scum, and depending on perspective, semi-fails if scum doesn't go for Conf town. My opinion is that the amount of Conf town then would make it quite easy to flush out the scum so I don't think it's really a fail.

Haneii's will fail to prevent a kill if the wrong person was JK'd or Traitor was recruited, and will also fail to check for recruitment of the wrong person was JK'd in the first place. My opinion is that this plan has a much higher chance of failing and wastes the JK since it's more likely the JK will protect successfully than roleblock successfully. (1/4 chance of successful protection vs 1/4 chance of successful roleblock on scum hiding in VT, but also 0 if traitor was recruited)

pieguy's plan is kinda like Caligno's, but the random factor involved brings in a lot of WIFOM if scum has no ninja so I don't really know if it would be better or worse for us than Caligno's.

Fixed tags
-Sakura

fucking quotes

Sakura, help pls

EBSDKGHOP: Not quotes, underlines

@Jinxy

Thanks for the summary...

...so which would you go for? Do you have any alternatives?





Also, we'll end with no lynch if the ties remain.

@pieguy: Though I'd prefer not claim who will be targeted, 1 looks better than 2, but you protect either Rantai or RB and fart watches any of both too, this way scum has only a 25% chance of performing a successful NK on confirmed and remaining hidden instead 50% when only fart doesn't have a fixed target to watch, and maybe, they'd aim for a non-PR or fart/pieguy and that increases the chance of catching scum by PoE, unless scum is really lucky or can predict both of you and NK without being seen or Ninja.

Less than 24 hours~

Unvote

I think this my No Lynch idea is pretty useless with this development.

@Haneii: Your reasons to vote Jinxy?

EBWOP: I think my No Lynch idea.

Dake's suggestion on the plan seems to work. Pulls out all the stops and goes pure WIFOM with low %, compared to pieguy's 50% and Caligno's ultimatum. I think that's the most workable plan suggested so far.

And Haneii's plan is still terrible k

Somehow I skimmed over this:

Rantai wrote:

CalignoBot wrote:

Okay, from what I can tell, DakeDekaane is getting fire on page 20 for saying that BRBP shouldn't claim his role.

Where exactly? At the very least I don't remember using that as an argument for or against.

NoHitter and Jinxy were the ones doing that; the post itself that said this wasn't on page 20, the ones making this point were. The post I was referring to was this on page 19:

DakeDekaane wrote:

Guessing BRBP's role won't lead to anything good for town, he should stay as that, when he gets/does something important, then he just have to spit it out. Also I'm curious how you read NH as his plan is clearly anti-town, not saying scum as there's nothing confirmed, in exchange of getting confirmed towns and possible scum, we served some tasty PRs for them in a silver plate.

Note that the first two paragraphs of this post were removed for having no relevance to this point.

The bolded portion is town-motivated thinking, and the unbolded portion is an opinion that doesn't look like it was shaped from a mafia mindset. Just a few posts before, he was somewhere in the middle around that; this post isn't much of a change from that. This is the only particular point I saw that was against Dake; I did skim through most of day 2, though.

I'm liking a Haneii lynch more for the post voting Jinxy. The last post she was referring to was very ambiguous, and the timing of this post looks more opportunistic than anything.

RE: Night plans

I'm willing to go along with Dake's plan. It looks solid enough for me.

Also I'll keep an eye on this thread and will hammer if required to get a lynch. I'd still much prefer a Haneii lynch, but I will accept a Jinxy one if I have to. The former has tried to push too many anti-town things for me to believe it's not on purpose.

Hey guys, sorry for my little inactivity. Had some trouble with new hardware.

I'm fine with doing any of the plans, what Dake proposed sounds fine too (he basically summarized all the plans and took the best from it).

Also, Dake is looking more Town to me at the moment. I wouldn't feel good if another lynched one flipped Town today because of me, especially when he has so few votes on hismelf that just don't deserve a lynch.

Unvote

Though I don't know which of JInxy/Haneii I should go for. JInxy's latest posts regarding the today's tactic were looking more Town, but I'm still not sure about him. Haneii's plan was not very detailed and might've turned out very bad in the worst case scenario, though I had a townread on her until now on. Jeez, the dilemma.

I'm going to read through the ISOs and decide, will be back in some time with my vote.

Moderator's Notes: Less than 19 hours until end of Day 2, If it continues as is, you are lynching no one

Guess I made a few mistakes, so Imma go through all of D2 and re-do all votes.
Done, guess my file screwed up from sending it back and forth from home and work, so please let me know if there's still any mistakes.

I voted haneii

Fixed, thanks
- Sakura

for my plan 1, we could either watch or JK either RB or Rantai. I say we JK in order to give fartownik a chance to find mafia. ofc mafia could just kill fartownik, but then we've got 3 confirmed town and a 75% chance of lynching mafia. Then, we watch one of the remaining two. note randomness != WIFOM, WIFOM would be if we tried to predict what they were doing. randomness on the other hand is good because it gives us a chance to find a mafia or stop a NK (from a game theory perspective, we make a strategy that is the least exploitable).

So: I JK RB (or fartownik with a low probability, like 25% or so) and fartownik watches either me or Rantai.

If we lynch scum I still say we do my plan 2 (which Jinxy got wrong btw, my plan involved picking random people as stated before). but we'll have a lot more leeway

Raging Bull wrote:

Haneii...Somehow just gut feeling. sorry pieguy.

unvote vote: Haneii
inb4 town OTL

note the next vote is the hammer, so don't do it till we're sure of everything

Might as well just go ahead and leave a PC here since im going to sleep soon

I am ok with a haneii lynch at this point. she really did not that good of a job helping town in the last few hours.

oh well, my well rested self will try to decipher the nightplanproposes, so i get a better picture over everything. again sorry for the inactivity, but I think I'm just useless at this point, not being able to really read anybody :/

DD's plan seems reasonable. in the best case scenario, we keep both confirmed townies alive and we get one of the scums. and even in slightly less optimal setups, we either keep both confirmed and lose an unconfirmed townie or we lose a confirmed townie and get one scum. the worst case scenario isn't worse than the ones of the other plans, but the possible reward is really juicy.

bonus points for super best case scenario: we lynch scum, scum shoots traitor this night lolol

*sigh*

Well I think I did a good job at getting people to talk/react, so you guys have more to work with the next day.

Jinxy, you finally spoke your mind, but you did take longer that I would have hoped + required prodding. However, you were the only one to list most of the risks for using JK offensively I was looking for.

I'm not sure why I'm being voted for. I guess I shouldn't have suggested using JK. However, you guys really should be scum hunting, not lynching off someone because you don't agree with them on something...again.

I won't be able to post again before the day ends, sorry.

dat AtE

Also you didn't respond my question

No hammering until we confirm what we'll do this night.

which is in about 6 hours.


I prefer if you protect Rantai though. I'm not as useful as Rantai and his logic and what not All I can do is shoot.

I'm not shooting tonight btw. Although I really want to

4~ hours remaining and I'm still unsure of what I should do tonight. Would someone specify the exact actions of all the PRs for both scenarios of mislynch and scumlynch?

So.. basically we're doing what I said a while ago.

Fart: Choose me, RB or pieguy to watch with pieguy randomly choosing between me and RB. No idea what the actual consensus is but that is the way I'd do it.

Scratch the RB watch, redundancy is not cool.

Eh nevermind, not thinking.

Night 2 is ending earlier because deadline will hit at work and i rather end it earlier rather than later.

After waking up you find the lifeless body of Raging Bull in his room, looks like someone locked him and cut the oxygen supply

Raging Bull - Town Vigilante has been asphyxiated N2


It is now Day 3 which ends on July 14th, 12:46 GMT-5

It is now LyLo town must lynch correctly or they will lose

-Will edit first post later-

shoot scum


Town wins yay

Good luck

Agh. I was sure Haneii would flip scum.

I need to rethink this, fartownik in particular. I want to be sure I have a solid read in him before making any sort of decision today.

Well it's very clear our JK decided not to protect our vig (WHY?). Even if we said choose randomly it was very clear RB was the more important of us 2 =.=

Vote: Jinxy

Not moving that vote unless something significant happens.