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Stacking the Deck - (Game Over - Town Win)

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Amianki
85 posts
Joined January 2011
Amianki
Somehow I skimmed over this:

Rantai wrote:

CalignoBot wrote:

Okay, from what I can tell, DakeDekaane is getting fire on page 20 for saying that BRBP shouldn't claim his role.
Where exactly? At the very least I don't remember using that as an argument for or against.
NoHitter and Jinxy were the ones doing that; the post itself that said this wasn't on page 20, the ones making this point were. The post I was referring to was this on page 19:

DakeDekaane wrote:

Guessing BRBP's role won't lead to anything good for town, he should stay as that, when he gets/does something important, then he just have to spit it out. Also I'm curious how you read NH as his plan is clearly anti-town, not saying scum as there's nothing confirmed, in exchange of getting confirmed towns and possible scum, we served some tasty PRs for them in a silver plate.
Note that the first two paragraphs of this post were removed for having no relevance to this point.

The bolded portion is town-motivated thinking, and the unbolded portion is an opinion that doesn't look like it was shaped from a mafia mindset. Just a few posts before, he was somewhere in the middle around that; this post isn't much of a change from that. This is the only particular point I saw that was against Dake; I did skim through most of day 2, though.

I'm liking a Haneii lynch more for the post voting Jinxy. The last post she was referring to was very ambiguous, and the timing of this post looks more opportunistic than anything.
Amianki
85 posts
Joined January 2011
Amianki
RE: Night plans

I'm willing to go along with Dake's plan. It looks solid enough for me.

Also I'll keep an eye on this thread and will hammer if required to get a lynch. I'd still much prefer a Haneii lynch, but I will accept a Jinxy one if I have to. The former has tried to push too many anti-town things for me to believe it's not on purpose.
fartownik
2,189 posts
Joined December 2008
fartownik
Hey guys, sorry for my little inactivity. Had some trouble with new hardware.

I'm fine with doing any of the plans, what Dake proposed sounds fine too (he basically summarized all the plans and took the best from it).

Also, Dake is looking more Town to me at the moment. I wouldn't feel good if another lynched one flipped Town today because of me, especially when he has so few votes on hismelf that just don't deserve a lynch.

Unvote

Though I don't know which of JInxy/Haneii I should go for. JInxy's latest posts regarding the today's tactic were looking more Town, but I'm still not sure about him. Haneii's plan was not very detailed and might've turned out very bad in the worst case scenario, though I had a townread on her until now on. Jeez, the dilemma.

I'm going to read through the ISOs and decide, will be back in some time with my vote.
Sakura
osu! Alumni
7,979 posts
Joined March 2010
Topic Starter
Sakura
Vote Count 2.05

Jinxy (2) - Rantai, Haneii
Haneii (2) - CalignoBot, Jinxy
DakeDekaane (1) - pieguy1372

Not Voting (4) - Tanzklaue, Raging Bull, DakeDekaane, fartownik

With 9 Alive it takes 5 to lynch.

Moderator's Notes: Less than 19 hours until end of Day 2, If it continues as is, you are lynching no one

Guess I made a few mistakes, so Imma go through all of D2 and re-do all votes.
Done, guess my file screwed up from sending it back and forth from home and work, so please let me know if there's still any mistakes.
Jinxy
2,777 posts
Joined February 2009
Jinxy
I voted haneii

Fixed, thanks
- Sakura
pieguyn
2,020 posts
Joined May 2009
pieguyn
for my plan 1, we could either watch or JK either RB or Rantai. I say we JK in order to give fartownik a chance to find mafia. ofc mafia could just kill fartownik, but then we've got 3 confirmed town and a 75% chance of lynching mafia. Then, we watch one of the remaining two. note randomness != WIFOM, WIFOM would be if we tried to predict what they were doing. randomness on the other hand is good because it gives us a chance to find a mafia or stop a NK (from a game theory perspective, we make a strategy that is the least exploitable).

So: I JK RB (or fartownik with a low probability, like 25% or so) and fartownik watches either me or Rantai.

If we lynch scum I still say we do my plan 2 (which Jinxy got wrong btw, my plan involved picking random people as stated before). but we'll have a lot more leeway :D

Raging Bull wrote:

Haneii...Somehow just gut feeling. sorry pieguy.
:P
Raging Bull
2,785 posts
Joined June 2010
Raging Bull
Vote:Haneii
pieguyn
2,020 posts
Joined May 2009
pieguyn
unvote vote: Haneii
inb4 town OTL

note the next vote is the hammer, so don't do it till we're sure of everything :P
Sakura
osu! Alumni
7,979 posts
Joined March 2010
Topic Starter
Sakura
Might as well just go ahead and leave a PC here since im going to sleep soon
Vote Count 2.06

(L-1) Haneii (4) - CalignoBot, Jinxy, Raging Bull, pieguy1372
Jinxy (2) - Rantai, Haneii

Not Voting (3) - Tanzklaue, DakeDekaane, fartownik

With 9 Alive it takes 5 to lynch.
Tanzklaue
1,151 posts
Joined December 2010
Tanzklaue
I am ok with a haneii lynch at this point. she really did not that good of a job helping town in the last few hours.

oh well, my well rested self will try to decipher the nightplanproposes, so i get a better picture over everything. again sorry for the inactivity, but I think I'm just useless at this point, not being able to really read anybody :/
Tanzklaue
1,151 posts
Joined December 2010
Tanzklaue
DD's plan seems reasonable. in the best case scenario, we keep both confirmed townies alive and we get one of the scums. and even in slightly less optimal setups, we either keep both confirmed and lose an unconfirmed townie or we lose a confirmed townie and get one scum. the worst case scenario isn't worse than the ones of the other plans, but the possible reward is really juicy.

bonus points for super best case scenario: we lynch scum, scum shoots traitor this night lolol
Haneii
1,203 posts
Joined November 2009
Haneii
*sigh*

Well I think I did a good job at getting people to talk/react, so you guys have more to work with the next day.

Jinxy, you finally spoke your mind, but you did take longer that I would have hoped + required prodding. However, you were the only one to list most of the risks for using JK offensively I was looking for.

I'm not sure why I'm being voted for. I guess I shouldn't have suggested using JK. However, you guys really should be scum hunting, not lynching off someone because you don't agree with them on something...again.

I won't be able to post again before the day ends, sorry.
DakeDekaane
osu! Alumni
3,500 posts
Joined February 2012
DakeDekaane
dat AtE

Also you didn't respond my question :(

No hammering until we confirm what we'll do this night.
Raging Bull
2,785 posts
Joined June 2010
Raging Bull
which is in about 6 hours.


I prefer if you protect Rantai though. I'm not as useful as Rantai and his logic and what not :( All I can do is shoot.
Raging Bull
2,785 posts
Joined June 2010
Raging Bull
I'm not shooting tonight btw. Although I really want to
Sakura
osu! Alumni
7,979 posts
Joined March 2010
Topic Starter
Sakura
Moderator's Notes: A little less than 6 hours remaining, If things continue as is, you're lynching Haneii
fartownik
2,189 posts
Joined December 2008
fartownik
4~ hours remaining and I'm still unsure of what I should do tonight. Would someone specify the exact actions of all the PRs for both scenarios of mislynch and scumlynch?
Rantai
1,000 posts
Joined July 2010
Rantai
So.. basically we're doing what I said a while ago.

Fart: Choose me, RB or pieguy to watch with pieguy randomly choosing between me and RB. No idea what the actual consensus is but that is the way I'd do it.
Rantai
1,000 posts
Joined July 2010
Rantai
Scratch the RB watch, redundancy is not cool.

Eh nevermind, not thinking.
Sakura
osu! Alumni
7,979 posts
Joined March 2010
Topic Starter
Sakura
As the darkness draws near, Haneii knew she had no hope, in her last words she tried to explain yet she was not heard, the group puts her into an escape pod and sends her flying off in an unknown direction... never to be seen ever again

Vote Count 2.06

Haneii (4) - CalignoBot, Jinxy, Raging Bull, pieguy1372
Jinxy (2) - Rantai, Haneii

Not Voting (3) - Tanzklaue, DakeDekaane, fartownik

Haneii - Vanilla Townie - has been lynched D2

It is now Night 2, deadline for all night actions is July 8th 16:56 GMT-5
Sakura
osu! Alumni
7,979 posts
Joined March 2010
Topic Starter
Sakura
Night 2 is ending earlier because deadline will hit at work and i rather end it earlier rather than later.

After waking up you find the lifeless body of Raging Bull in his room, looks like someone locked him and cut the oxygen supply

Raging Bull - Town Vigilante has been asphyxiated N2

Vote Count 3.0

Not Voting (7) - Tanzklaue, DakeDekaane, fartownik, Rantai, CalignoBot, Jinxy, pieguy1372

With 7 Alive it takes 4 to lynch.

It is now Day 3 which ends on July 14th, 12:46 GMT-5

It is now LyLo town must lynch correctly or they will lose

-Will edit first post later-
Raging Bull
2,785 posts
Joined June 2010
Raging Bull
shoot scum


Town wins yay

Good luck
Amianki
85 posts
Joined January 2011
Amianki
Agh. I was sure Haneii would flip scum.

I need to rethink this, fartownik in particular. I want to be sure I have a solid read in him before making any sort of decision today.
Rantai
1,000 posts
Joined July 2010
Rantai
Well it's very clear our JK decided not to protect our vig (WHY?). Even if we said choose randomly it was very clear RB was the more important of us 2 =.=

Vote: Jinxy

Not moving that vote unless something significant happens.
Rantai
1,000 posts
Joined July 2010
Rantai
For the record I think the scum are Jinxy, DD and either Caligno or Pieguy.

Caligno simply because it's very easy to post a lot and mislead town due to sheer volume (especially with reads which is more of a task of convincing opposed to proving). Pieguy because why.

Jinxy/DD already explained.
Rantai
1,000 posts
Joined July 2010
Rantai
Also; pieguy who did you target and why, fat who did you target and what did you get.
Amianki
85 posts
Joined January 2011
Amianki
No. The only way pieguy is scum is if fartownik is scum. The claim that fartownik was jailed N1 confirms this.
fartownik
2,189 posts
Joined December 2008
fartownik
I watched you, Rantai, and saw pieguy targeting you. I have no idea myself why he didn't protect RB though. It was obvious we should keep RB alive as long as possible. Maybe he thought scum would think the exact same and he switched the targets to prevent the nightkill? Sounds a bit risky though...

The fact is that he targeted me, but the action itself is unknown. Wanna hear from pieguy why he did it.
Rantai
1,000 posts
Joined July 2010
Rantai
Oh yeah that's right, forgot about that action.

Then just Caligno then.
pieguyn
2,020 posts
Joined May 2009
pieguyn
saying that you flipped a coin and acted on that is fine
Pretty much this. I didn't want to bother with all the WIFOM, so I tried this instead and it ended up being Rantai. I'm quite sure it won't have much of an effect on anything since it's LyLo anyway, but oh well.

I bet it's probably DakeDekaane still, but now I'm even more suspicious of JInxy, cause he bandwagoned on Haneii, plus IIRC he didn't contribute anything new really on D2. Also, he hasn't posted much which is the same as I remember him always doing as scum. :?
DakeDekaane
osu! Alumni
3,500 posts
Joined February 2012
DakeDekaane
Well, Haneii turned town, then I should go for my other suspect.
Vote: Jinxy

I'll keep my eye on pieguy though, the way he changed his target is a bit~ weird imo.
fart, why you watched Rantai?
Sakura
osu! Alumni
7,979 posts
Joined March 2010
Topic Starter
Sakura
Vote Count 3.01

(L-2) Jinxy (2) - Rantai, DakeDekaane

Not Voting (5) - Tanzklaue, fartownik, CalignoBot, Jinxy, pieguy1372

With 7 Alive it takes 4 to lynch.

Please let me know if you see any mistakes
Amianki
85 posts
Joined January 2011
Amianki
Rantai, are you absolutely sure about this? I'm getting a very bad feeling about this wagon with the DakeDekaane vote.
Jinxy
2,777 posts
Joined February 2009
Jinxy
Ok, let's see here...

Rantai wrote:

His ISO is rife with parroting and/or jumping in behind another accusation. As much as I don't like DD's play so far, Jinxy is even more uncomfortable. That and he was still one of the non voters and first for the plan so I'm more or less satisfied with that for now (explanation can merely be a cover, considering the insight provided).
I did ask for examples, but regardless, any form of "parroting" you say I did is because I agree the plan would work/the accusation is valid. For NH's plan, the insight provided when I ran the numbers was that town stood to gain more when all the information added up, even if the only thing maf gained could be considered to have a bit more weightage.

pieguy1372 wrote:

I bet it's probably DakeDekaane still, but now I'm even more suspicious of JInxy, cause he bandwagoned on Haneii, plus IIRC he didn't contribute anything new really on D2. Also, he hasn't posted much which is the same as I remember him always doing as scum. :?
I don't know how you came to the wagoning conclusion, considering I voted eons after Irre/Caligno. Ironically enough, the reason I voted Haneii was precisely because she was wagoning on me right after Rantai.
In D2, people made plans, I checked it, decided it was sound, and agreed with. I'm not the kind of guy who can come up with plans if I don't have a basis(improvement of another plan, etc) to work on. I don't see how this is instantly a scum trait, not everyone can come up with plans.

Now, in my perspective, the only possibilities remaining are that every other unconf is scum, or fart is + 2 unconf, or fart and pieguy both are + 1 unconf. I highly doubt the last one, but I'm not going to disregard the second one. Considering the votes are coming pretty fast now, I'm going back to my original suspect before Haneii's scummy posts.

Vote: DD
fartownik
2,189 posts
Joined December 2008
fartownik

DakeDekaane wrote:

fart, why you watched Rantai?
Erm, because I thought he's going to get lynched?

My suspects at the moment are JInxy and Dake to some extent, though I can't deny the possibility of Caligno being scum as well. His actions seemed pretty pro-town, but by PoE he's the only one (not counting JInxy and Dake) that could be either scum or a Traitor. Tanz is still a townread, but I can't be sure of anything anymore.

JInxy's Haneii push and general weird behavior throughout the entire game (not compatible with his regular town meta) made me suspicious. He's an underdog already, along with DD, whom I was suspecting back in D2 and I also suspect him right now because of PoE.
Rantai
1,000 posts
Joined July 2010
Rantai

CalignoBot wrote:

Rantai, are you absolutely sure about this? I'm getting a very bad feeling about this wagon with the DakeDekaane vote.

More sure than that Haneii wagon.

Also considering that everyone except Tanz has posted and no ninja hammer has occurred I'm going to say it's a fairly safe bet (I am going to say Tanz stands more town than scum, but that isn't much to go by unfortunately).

SPOILER
@Jinxy - p/2387466/ - pointless reiteration, the point was made
p/2396642/ - jumping onto NH's pressure

The only thing giving me pause is the fact that he completely tunnel visioned Haneii the entire game. That's one aggressive scum.

At this stage though we have nothing to work on as both our PR's whiffed and cross confirmed each other again. They could be scum together for all I know.
Rantai
1,000 posts
Joined July 2010
Rantai
@Caligno - well actually, if you feel stronger about DD then I can go with that too.

I'll only vote for him to hammer though because I'd want to make sure that the others can make their own conclusions first.
Jinxy
2,777 posts
Joined February 2009
Jinxy

Rantai wrote:

@Jinxy - p/2387466/ - pointless reiteration, the point was made
p/2396642/ - jumping onto NH's pressure
For the first one, I didn't think NH answered that question at all so I added in.

NoHitter wrote:

Haneii wrote:

That isn't the only lie [scum] can make. They can say they don't have a power role when they do.
That's why we only lynch suspicious PRs. After we lynch them, we lynch the non-PRs based on how scummy they are.
For the second one, I was replying to Dake's post above and pointing out where exactly the flip-flop was for other people.
pieguyn
2,020 posts
Joined May 2009
pieguyn
Okay I seriously have no idea what to do here

if anyone's a Tracker, claim now plz

I seriously think it's either JInxy or DakeDekaane, if not both of them. in fact, it has to be cause otherwise scum would have hammered by now and won.

now I wonder about Caligno. someone made a point D1 of how Irre was acting even more ridiculous than in previous games, and currently it seems to me like Caligno is hesitating way too much. and it seems he's kind of misleading a bit, not only with Haneii, but I got confused just reading some of his huge posts.
Rantai
1,000 posts
Joined July 2010
Rantai
Jinxy, yes he could have been hammered by now.

DD, while likely, no because Jinxy is scum (can't ninja hammer if scum initiates).
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