So Wojjan, Rantai, KRZY, and DxS all posted without claiming hit. That means that the doctor made a successful protect or one of the mafia or SK did not kill anyone.
One of them is definitely the mafia or SK. There is a chance that LS is the mafia or SK, but I'll disregard that for now. Thus, our odds are 1/2 for a random lynch, and another 1/2 during the night. The odds of neither of the mafia or SK dying over today and next night are 1/4.
Even if LS is mafia or SK, our odds for losing are only 3/4*1/2 = 3/8. Thus, our odds of winning on a random lynch over today and tonight are better than losing. The only thing is that if we do hit the 1/4-3/8 chance of losing, what position will we be in? We'll lose 1 townie (1-1-3) and at worst we'll be 1-1-2 next day, with probably two bulletproof townies (and we might still at be 1-1-3, which is still winnable and similar to LyLo in standard mafia).
With no lynch, we forfeit a chance to hit a mafia, and a lynch is relatively save IMO, so I suggest that we perform a random lynch among Wojjan, Rantai, KRZY, and DxS. (You all can add me in there and remove yourself when deciding your vote if you want, but I know I'm not mafia or SK
) What does everyone else think?
