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Bulletproof's Mafia [TOWN WIN] - Crossfire!

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KRZY
Former osu! Champion: OWC#3
4,850 posts
Joined May 2009
KRZY
If there were indeed two hits on Night 0, without the doctor claiming, chances are that the mafia and the SK will target who they have targeted before, and that guarantees at least one kill, whether it be Lybydose or LS. However, this doesn't even guarantee that the remaining person is town; for an extreme example, only LS might have been hit Night 0, Lybydose has fakeclaimed, the doc protects Lybydose, and Lybydose or the remaining mafia/SK hits LS for a kill.

Seeing as the doctor did not claim, it seems that he did not protect either LS or Lybydose during Night 0 (which is understandable, since the logical choice would have been to protect himself), which gives a bit more accountability to both LS and Lybydose's claims. At this point, if we force the doctor to claim by voting, and the doctor claims but does not specify who he is going to protect on Night 1, we risk having 0~2 deaths, possibly the doc being one of them.

1 certain town death vs 0~2 deaths that might include a doctor, what are your thoughts?
Wojjan
806 posts
Joined August 2008
Wojjan
Do the math for lynching instead. We mislynch on the doc, he claims and gets outed, forcing him to selfprotect overnight. Add another lynch on a possible and probable BP (because we're not gonna out doc jsut to nl afterwards, and we have nearly nothing to go on other than "these people might be town") and the chance of both hit BPs dying being a whopping 50% without doc there to protect them we could be facing either two or three towndeaths by lynching.

0~2 or 1~3, take a pick
Lybydose
osu! Alumni
2,024 posts
Joined January 2009
Lybydose
The problem with no-lynch is that the scum will probably just hit their same targets again tonight. I die and Suburu dies, and we wind up in the exact same situation we're in now except with two less people. And if the doctor protects one? Same thing but one less person instead!

There's pretty much no risk for them to hit the same targets again tonight.
LadySuburu
80 posts
Joined June 2008
LadySuburu
I really have no clue what to do. No Lynch may still be the better move, but there's tons of problems on both sides.

I'm leaning No Lynch for now. Losing one or both of the bulletproof members who already has lost their bulletproof is better than other scenarios, except getting a lynch on scum. However, if they don't try to kill us again they have a chance of hitting each other. Even if both me and Lyby are NKed, that leaves us at 3 - 2, with two bulletproof and a doctor. If we lynch AND both of us are NKed, worst case scenario we're at 2-2 potentially without a doctor.

Keeping our non-hit bulletproof members around for this first night seems better to me, but we do lose the chance to lynch scum.
LadySuburu
80 posts
Joined June 2008
LadySuburu

Lybydose wrote:

The problem with no-lynch is that the scum will probably just hit their same targets again tonight.
Same thing happens on a mislynch. The only scenario where that doesn't happen is a lynch of you or me, or hitting mafia/sk.
Rantai
1,000 posts
Joined July 2010
Rantai

LadySuburu wrote:

Same thing happens on a mislynch. The only scenario where that doesn't happen is a lynch of you or me, or hitting mafia/sk.
That's an interesting choice, it leaves the killers no choice but to search for other people to shoot if the doc protects the remaining expended BP leaving a chance for them to hit themselves. Worst case we lose the doc though. Best case we win, lol.
pieguyn
2,020 posts
Joined May 2009
pieguyn
@DxS: Just a random vote, but I'm going to reconsider what to do so unvote

The doctor should probably protect LS or Lyby, which ensures we only have one death among them. Then, it will be 1-1-3 if we lynch, 1-1-4 if we mislynch. We'll have
-1 mafia
-1 SK
-1 doctor
-1 townie
-2 bulletproof townies
(remove one for a lynch today) the next day. If we lynch today, we have 1-1-3 the next day, which is LyLo. I don't think there would be a way for us to win if we mislynch after that. The problem is that if only one of LS or Lyby is targeted, and the other one targets someone else, we could lose a doctor or a bulletproof ability, which would push us down even more.

The only problem with this is, how the hell do we find out who the mafia/SK is if we don't vote?

Oh well, we gain another day by doing no lynch today, so we might as well vote no lynch. Opinions?
Rantai
1,000 posts
Joined July 2010
Rantai
I'm starting to think a tactical lynch would work out a lot better.

~1/6 chance of losing the doctor in exchange for

~2/6 of a scum dying

~3/6 of no one dying

While a no lynch would give us;

~1/7 of doc dying

~2/7 of scum dying

~2/7 townie dying

~2/7 no one dying.

Mislynching is even worse.

The math is flawed but that's the baseline really.
DeathxShinigami
1,176 posts
Joined November 2008
DeathxShinigami
Going to bed soon.

Nothing much else we could do so I'll just

Vote: No lynch

:|
KRZY
Former osu! Champion: OWC#3
4,850 posts
Joined May 2009
KRZY
All options are under the assumption that mafia/SK will hit the target they hit on N0 and the doctor will protect either Lyby or LS.


If we decide to lynch someone, provided the target isn't Lyby or LS:

40% chance to lynch mafia/SK -> 50% chance of not losing any town member, 50% chance of losing either Lyby or LS

40% chance to lynch bulletproof town -> 100% chance of losing either Lyby or LS

20% chance to lynch doctor -> 100% chance of losing both Lyby and LS

which adds up to

20% chance of not losing any town member

20% chance of losing either Lyby or LS

40% chance of losing a town member AND either Lyby or LS

20% chance of losing the doctor, LS, and Lybydose


If we do not lynch

100% chance of losing either Lyby or LS



Expected value of lost town member

Lynch: 1.6
No Lynch: 1


Vote: No lynch
Rantai
1,000 posts
Joined July 2010
Rantai
Do the math for a tactical lynch please, I'm too lazy to do it properly (I want to see where it holds up against the other 2 choices)

Admittedly it's because I am doing a physiology write up
NoHitter
osu! Alumni
3,785 posts
Joined June 2009
Topic Starter
NoHitter
After some thought, everyone decided to not do anything.
Well that was the consensus until the light suddenly flickered off.

IT IS NOW NIGHT 1.
ACTIONS MUST BE SENT IN 24 HOURS.
NoHitter
osu! Alumni
3,785 posts
Joined June 2009
Topic Starter
NoHitter
While the lights are turned off, you hear lots of gunshots - as if the two culprits are shooting at people randomly.
The lights flicker on again, and you guy see the body of Lybydose on the floor.
You notice that he had a vest with him, but it had already been used once.
Lybydose - Town One-Shot Bulletproof - Killed N1

IT IS NOW DAY 2. DEADLINE IS IN 72 HOURS.
WITH 6 ALIVE, IT TAKES 4 TO LYNCH.
pieguyn
2,020 posts
Joined May 2009
pieguyn
Okay so

-1 mafia
-1 SK
-1 doctor
-1 or 2 townies (LadySuburu and whoever else was hit)
-1 or 2 bulletproof townies, where # of townies + # of BP townies = 3

Assume we lynch someone today. If we lynch the mafia or SK, and we have a 1/3 chance of doing that, that's quite good...

If we don't, we will have 5 people left. The chance of the mafia shooting the SK is 1/4. The chance of the SK shooting the mafia is 1/4. Thus, the chance of at least one of the mafia or SK dying is 1/2. That seems like quite a good chance, but I'd like to try to think of something better than flipping a coin first :?

Anyway, I think the person who got hit should roleclaim. Thoughts?
LadySuburu
80 posts
Joined June 2008
LadySuburu

pieguy1372 wrote:

Anyway, I think the person who got hit should roleclaim. Thoughts?
This assumes that I wasn't targeted for the second hit and protected by the doctor.

However if someone DID get hit, I would like them to claim. More information would be good if there is any to be had.
DeathxShinigami
1,176 posts
Joined November 2008
DeathxShinigami
To me it seems more likely that the doc had a good idea of who the mafia and or SK was going to hit so he protected LS.

No other ideas though.
Wojjan
806 posts
Joined August 2008
Wojjan

DeathxShinigami wrote:

To me it seems more likely that the doc had a good idea of who the mafia and or SK was going to hit so he protected LS.

No other ideas though.
I'm prety sure that was the whole point of no lynching.
So anyone wanna swoop in and do the math for me because right now I'm a little short on time. I'm not hit btw.
KRZY
Former osu! Champion: OWC#3
4,850 posts
Joined May 2009
KRZY
Yeah do claim if you were hit please.
LadySuburu
80 posts
Joined June 2008
LadySuburu
Vote: Rantai
Rantai
1,000 posts
Joined July 2010
Rantai
Oh ok.

I guess a random vote is as good as any at this stage.

I'll tell you now I am a bulletproof (unshot).
LadySuburu
80 posts
Joined June 2008
LadySuburu

Rantai wrote:

Oh ok.

I guess a random vote is as good as any at this stage.

I'll tell you now I am a bulletproof (unshot).
A vote with minor reasoning, as opposed to a random vote.

You were the only one who hadn't posted yet this day.
Rantai
1,000 posts
Joined July 2010
Rantai
Fair enough, I won't dispute it.

I had nothing to say without repeating everyone else.
pieguyn
2,020 posts
Joined May 2009
pieguyn
So Wojjan, Rantai, KRZY, and DxS all posted without claiming hit. That means that the doctor made a successful protect or one of the mafia or SK did not kill anyone.

One of them is definitely the mafia or SK. There is a chance that LS is the mafia or SK, but I'll disregard that for now. Thus, our odds are 1/2 for a random lynch, and another 1/2 during the night. The odds of neither of the mafia or SK dying over today and next night are 1/4.

Even if LS is mafia or SK, our odds for losing are only 3/4*1/2 = 3/8. Thus, our odds of winning on a random lynch over today and tonight are better than losing. The only thing is that if we do hit the 1/4-3/8 chance of losing, what position will we be in? We'll lose 1 townie (1-1-3) and at worst we'll be 1-1-2 next day, with probably two bulletproof townies (and we might still at be 1-1-3, which is still winnable and similar to LyLo in standard mafia).

With no lynch, we forfeit a chance to hit a mafia, and a lynch is relatively save IMO, so I suggest that we perform a random lynch among Wojjan, Rantai, KRZY, and DxS. (You all can add me in there and remove yourself when deciding your vote if you want, but I know I'm not mafia or SK :P) What does everyone else think?
DeathxShinigami
1,176 posts
Joined November 2008
DeathxShinigami
With what pieguy just said it does sound like doc has a successful protection.

Though I'm not buying pieguy's so called plan and he seems rather reassuring he's mafia or SK now with what he stated.
pieguyn
2,020 posts
Joined May 2009
pieguyn
Can you come up with something better than a 5/8-3/4 chance of a mafia or SK dying? If you can, please share it =w=
LadySuburu
80 posts
Joined June 2008
LadySuburu

pieguy1372 wrote:

I suggest that we perform a random lynch among Wojjan, Rantai, KRZY, and DxS. (You all can add me in there and remove yourself when deciding your vote if you want, but I know I'm not mafia or SK :P) What does everyone else think?
I suggest that we perform a lynch. Preferably NOT random, since that doesn't really help.

I'm still leaning Rantai for not posting at all this day until called out. Pieguy just a tad for that wording.
Rantai
1,000 posts
Joined July 2010
Rantai
Guess I'll get off my lazy ass and do the math. My head still hurts from that physiology assignment I was writing

There is a huge amount of (possibly) accurate math.

SPOILER
Assuming LS is an exposed townie, that no one else has lost their BP, that the doctor protects LS and the killers do not no kill;

These are the possible combinations;

SK shot - Mafia shot

Mafia --- SK
Doc ----- Doc
BP1 ----- BP1
BP2 ----- BP2

Day 2

No lynch

----------------------

Maf+SK
Maf+BP1
Maf+BP2
Maf+doc
Doc+SK
BP1+doc
BP2+doc
Doc+doc
Doc+BP2
Doc+BP1
BP1+SK
BP2+SK
BP1+BP1
BP2+BP2
BP2+BP1
BP1+BP2

--------------

Pretty straightforward really, 16 possible outcomes, 32 possible actions:

There are;

7/16 purely negative outcomes (Doc dies for no dead scum)
2/16 mixed bags (1 scum for 1 town)
1/16 purely good outcomes (this is the win for town)
4/16 favourable outcomes (1 scum for 1 BP)
2/16 for 'neutral' outcomes (Each BP take a hit each)

Other possibilities but you can easily discern them from the above chart.

Mislynch

----------------

If we mislynch B1 (or BP2, just one of them):

Maf+SK
Maf+BP1
Maf+BP2
Maf+doc
Doc+SK
BP1+doc
BP2+doc
Doc+doc
Doc+BP2
Doc+BP1
BP1+SK
BP2+SK
BP1+BP1
BP2+BP2
BP2+BP1
BP1+BP2

-------------------

9 possibilities, 18 actions.

4/9 purely negative outcomes
2/9 mixed bag
1/9 win
2/9 favourable

Again more there, I made the chart for visual convinience.

-----------------------

Worst case scenarios

-------------

No lynch. Doc down, 1 vest gone.

2 town
SK
Maf
1 BP

If we mislynch again: BP - then possible shots;

SK -- Maf
T1 -- T1
T2 -- T2

SK+Maf
SK+T1
SK+T2
T1+Maf
T1+T1
T1+T2
T2+Maf
T2+T1
T2+T2

-------------

9 outcomes, 18 possibilities

1/9 win
2/9 both townies die (game over)
2/9 that 1 town dies, no scum die (town loss unless no lynch is done)
4/9 1 scum, 1 town down (game over)

With a T mislynch

1/9 win
2/9 1 scum, 1 town
4/9 1 town, no scum die
2/9 1 scum dies (enter lylo)

-------------------

Mislynch of BP, doc down, 1 vest down

2 town
SK
Maf

Assume town mislynched;

SK -- Maf
T -- T

SK+Maf
SK+T
T+Maf
T+T

1/4 win
3/4 loss

----------------------------

Assuming scum lynches

For simplicity I'll assume mafia dies. Also going by 'most likely' cases.

Day 2

SK
2 BP
1 town (immune)
1 Doc

1/4 chance of doc dying
2/4 of losing a vest
3/4 chance of no one dying

Day 3:

Assume BP is hit - 1/5 chance of killing SK

If mislynch the last BP;

1/3 chance of doc dying
1/3 town dying
1/3 no one dying

Day 4:

- If townie dies - Ly-lo - 1/3 win
- If doc dies - ly-lo - 1/3 win

*No one dying*

SK
2 Town
1 Doc

1/4 chance of SK lynch
--> Doc mislynch (game over)
--> Town mislynch (2/4)

50-50 chance to lose or go into ly-lo.

I will assume we don't mislynch the doc Day 2.

Looking at that no lynch is completely out of the question.

Best case is we lynch mafia then SK (2/7 then 1/5 chance = 2/35 chance). After that if I go by 'most likely outcome' we'd basically have a 1/4 chance of winning if we lynch one scum today.

However in the mislynch worst case scenario we also have an expected 1/4 chance to win however we also have the small chance that the scum will kill each other.

I'm actually thinking lynching me would be our best course of action.

If I have made any mistakes or oversights please post them.
Rantai
1,000 posts
Joined July 2010
Rantai
Oh yeah if the doc is mislynched we're basically screwed I think (might do the math for it too but right now I am too lazy)
Wojjan
806 posts
Joined August 2008
Wojjan
actually if the doctor can selfprotect he can pretty much claim and Wifom it up in this Wifom Wifom
Wojjan
806 posts
Joined August 2008
Wojjan
this is if we vote him, I'm not asking anyone to claim stante pede.
Rantai
1,000 posts
Joined July 2010
Rantai
Well it seems we are running out of time and I haven't found a problem with my previous posts (if the doctor can self protect... I think it's similar numbers)

That said I'll go ahead with the bulletproof lynch unless someone can think of something better.

Vote: Rantai
Wojjan
806 posts
Joined August 2008
Wojjan
fuck no not this wifom shit

Vote: rantai
Rantai
1,000 posts
Joined July 2010
Rantai
I'm too simple minded for wifom :D
Wojjan
806 posts
Joined August 2008
Wojjan
sure you are
Rantai
1,000 posts
Joined July 2010
Rantai
You'll believe me soon enough.
pieguyn
2,020 posts
Joined May 2009
pieguyn
Well, there's no point in hammering yet since no one else has any votes...

I'm not sure why we're voting Rantai specifically though. He posted that huge thing earlier, so it seems like he's town, but I'm not sure at the moment. IMO, either he's town trying to keep people from voting the doctor, or a mafia who wants to appear town, but this is WIFOM.
DeathxShinigami
1,176 posts
Joined November 2008
DeathxShinigami
Vote: Rantai

He willingly offered himself as the test lynch for today. So I need no other reason to vote for anyone else.
pieguyn
2,020 posts
Joined May 2009
pieguyn
FoS: DxS, just a gut feeling but that post just seems wrong...
NoHitter
osu! Alumni
3,785 posts
Joined June 2009
Topic Starter
NoHitter
There was no info whatsoever. No one knew what to do.
That was until Rantai volunteered to be lynched, lowering the number of eliminated players.
Rantai stood up and made a dash for the glass windows on the second floor.

As Rantai was nearing the windows, multiple gunshots were heard. A bullet hit in the chest!
Rantai seemed unaffected though, and still jumped through the glass.
Rantai - Town One-Shot Bulletproof - Lynched Day 2

IT IS NOW NIGHT 2.
ACTIONS MUST BE SENT IN 24 HOURS.
NoHitter
osu! Alumni
3,785 posts
Joined June 2009
Topic Starter
NoHitter
As everyone was heading back to the first floor to plan out things, everyone realized that pieguy1372 wasn't with them.
As everyone rushed down the stairs, they saw pieguy1372, dead on the floor with multiple bullet wounds.
He was killed just as everyone was busy looking at Rantai.

What was worse was that a search of pieguy's bag revealed medical supplies and a first aid kid. He was a doctor!
pieguy1372 - Town Doctor - Killed N2

IT IS NOW DAY 3. DEADLINE IS IN 72 HOURS.
WITH 4 ALIVE, IT TAKES 3 TO LYNCH.
Last edited by NoHitter , edited 1 time in total.
Wojjan
806 posts
Joined August 2008
Wojjan
Well rantai sure sucks for lynching himself

not hit.
DeathxShinigami
1,176 posts
Joined November 2008
DeathxShinigami
Not hit.

Suggest we lynch KRZY. If he isn't the SK or mafia then we already know who they are seeing as LS is already confirmed town.
LadySuburu
80 posts
Joined June 2008
LadySuburu
FoS: DxS

The only possible way for town to win right now is by luck.

Scenario 1: Me / Pie were targetted last night.

SK / Mafia are alive, plus 1 unused bulletproof. The only feasable way for us to win is to lynch me, and hope the mafia and SK hit each other. If they don't both shoot someone, they risk losing. If we keep me alive, I'll just be shot tonight anyway.


Scanario 2: Me / Other bulletproof were targetted last night.

There's basically no way to win. Might as well still lynch me and hope the SK and mafia target each other, but at that point whichever of them targetted the bulletproof might target him again. Of course they still risk being shot by the other SK/Mafia, so with some nice WIFOM we may have just a chance.
Wojjan
806 posts
Joined August 2008
Wojjan
yeah this setup is pretty mafsided.

Vote: Suburu because it makes about as much sense as we're gonna get.

gl town :(
KRZY
Former osu! Champion: OWC#3
4,850 posts
Joined May 2009
KRZY
Yeah, the only mathematically possible way for Town to win now is to lynch LS and hope the mafia/SK shoot each other. 1/4 chance, still very possible.

DxS/Wojjan, good luck tonight.

vote: LS
Wojjan
806 posts
Joined August 2008
Wojjan

KRZY wrote:

Yeah, the only mathematically possible way for Town to win now is to lynch LS and hope the mafia/SK shoot each other. 1/4 chance, still very possible.

DxS/Wojjan, good luck tonight.

vote: LS
lol go you townie town person
LadySuburu
80 posts
Joined June 2008
LadySuburu
Vote: LS

See you guys in "Insert place of choice here."
NoHitter
osu! Alumni
3,785 posts
Joined June 2009
Topic Starter
NoHitter
LadySuburu offered to leave and have the rest of the people inside think for themselves.
The lights flickered off and one. Where LadySuburu was once standing on, lay a vest.
You all then notice that the front door was opened.

LadySuburu was outside and proceeded to lock the entrance with a padlock.
There were three people left.
LadySuburu - Town One-Shot Bulletproof - Lynched D3

IT IS NOW NIGHT 3.
ACTIONS MUST BE SENT IN 24 HOURS.
NoHitter
osu! Alumni
3,785 posts
Joined June 2009
Topic Starter
NoHitter
The lights flickered off for one last time.
Wojjan quickly crouched on the floor.
DeathxShinigami and KRZY both aimed their guns at each other and shot.

The lights flickered on. The two robbers were dead, and the last remaining security guard was alive.
KRZY - Serial Killer - Killed N3
DeathxShinigami - Mafia Goon - Killed N3

After that incident, rhe bank management made sure that all security guards knew each other even before they went to work.
Wojjan - Town One-Shot Bulletproof - Survived

TOWN HAS WON!
NoHitter
osu! Alumni
3,785 posts
Joined June 2009
Topic Starter
NoHitter
Roles
1. Rantai - Town One-Shot Bulletproof
2. KRZY - Serial Killer
3. DeathxShinigami - Mafia Goon
4. LadySuburu - Town One-Shot Bulletproof
5. pieguy1372 - Town Doctor
6. Lybydose - Town One-Shot Bulletproof
7. Wojjan - Town One-Shot Bulletproof

Actions
Night 0:
pieguy1372 protects Rantai
KRZY shoots Lybydose
DeathxShinigami shoots LadySuburu

Night 1:
pieguy1372 protects LadySuburu
KRZY shoots Lybydose
DeathxShinigami shoots LadySuburu

Day 2:
Lynched Rantai

Night 2:
pieguy1372 protects LadySuburu
KRZY shoots pieguy1372
DeathxShinigami shoots pieguy1372

Day 3:
Lynched LadySuburu

Night 3:
KRZY shoots DeathxShinigami
DeathxShinigami shoots KRZY
Last edited by NoHitter , edited 1 time in total.
bmin11
5,438 posts
Joined October 2008
bmin11
gj
pieguyn
2,020 posts
Joined May 2009
pieguyn
hahahaha

I knew this would happen :P GJ everyone :)
Rantai
1,000 posts
Joined July 2010
Rantai
Wow that played out exactly how the worst case scenario should.

25% chance to win and we got it \:D/
NoHitter
osu! Alumni
3,785 posts
Joined June 2009
Topic Starter
NoHitter
If Mafia and SK had both shot the last Bulletproof, the Bulletproof would die and they would share the win.
Raging Bull
2,809 posts
Joined June 2010
Raging Bull
Lol....I was hoping something like this would eventually happen to this game. Although I was expecting it on N1 instead.
Lybydose
osu! Alumni
2,024 posts
Joined January 2009
Lybydose
so yeah you guys pretty much went for the worst strategy ever.

I still don't understand the point of voting no-lynch on D1
KRZY
Former osu! Champion: OWC#3
4,850 posts
Joined May 2009
KRZY

NoHItter wrote:

If Mafia and SK had both shot the last Bulletproof, the Bulletproof would die and they would share the win.
Was about to suggest DxS this and then backstab him but the idea hit me after you called N3.
LadySuburu
80 posts
Joined June 2008
LadySuburu
Well that was fun. Lynching myself was the best move I've ever made. I even lived through it!
Wojjan
806 posts
Joined August 2008
Wojjan
And again I am one of the sole survivors of NoHItter's games.
NoHitter
osu! Alumni
3,785 posts
Joined June 2009
Topic Starter
NoHitter

Wojjan wrote:

And again I am one of the sole survivors of NoHItter's games.
Act more townie, and you'll die sooner ;)
Wojjan
806 posts
Joined August 2008
Wojjan
Actually I kept trying to act scummy so the maf or SK would think I'm the SK or maf.
LadySuburu
80 posts
Joined June 2008
LadySuburu

Wojjan wrote:

Actually I kept trying to act scummy so the maf or SK would think I'm the SK or maf.
I actually thought you were town this game.
Rantai
1,000 posts
Joined July 2010
Rantai

LadySuburu wrote:

I actually thought you were town this game.
This, to be honest.
bmin11
5,438 posts
Joined October 2008
bmin11
You suck at being suspicious, Wojjan
Lybydose
osu! Alumni
2,024 posts
Joined January 2009
Lybydose

Rantai wrote:

LadySuburu wrote:

I actually thought you were town this game.
This, to be honest.
x3
Wojjan
806 posts
Joined August 2008
Wojjan
well then why didn't anyone kill me >:(
LadySuburu
80 posts
Joined June 2008
LadySuburu

Wojjan wrote:

well then why didn't anyone kill me >:(
Because I was town.
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