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Bulletproof's Mafia [TOWN WIN] - Crossfire!

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NoHitter
osu! Alumni
3,785 posts
Joined June 2009
Topic Starter
NoHitter
Bulletproof's Mafia

Set-up:
1 - Mafia Goon
1 - Serial Killer
4 - One-Shot Bulletproof Townies
1 - Doctor

Specifics:
This game starts at Night.
Bulletproof Townies will be notified if they get shot at.
The set-up can be shortened to 5 players by removing two bulletproofs.

Alive:
7. Wojjan - Town One-Shot Bulletproof - Survived

Dead:
6. Lybydose - Town One-Shot Bulletproof - Killed N1
1. Rantai - Town One-Shot Bulletproof - Lynched D2
5. pieguy1372 - Town Doctor - Killed N2
4. LadySuburu - Town One-Shot Bulletproof - Lynched D3
2. KRZY - Serial Killer - Killed N3
3. DeathxShinigami - Mafia Goon - Killed N3

Role PMs:
Mafia Goon

Mafia Goon wrote:

You are a Mafia Goon sided with Mafia. Every night, you may choose one person to kill.

You win when you control half the votes during the day.
Serial Killer

Serial Killer wrote:

You are a Serial Killer sided Independently. Every night, you may choose one person to kill.

You win when you control half the votes during the day.
Town One-Shot Bulletproof

Town Bulletproof wrote:

You are a One-Shot Bulletproof sided with Town. You are immune from being nightkilled once. You will be informed if you get shot.

You win when all threats to Town are gone.
Town Doctor

Doctor wrote:

You are a Doctor sided with Town. Every night, you may choose one person to protect. That person will be saved from one Nightkill for that Night.

You win when all threats to Town are gone.
Bulletproof PM When Hit
You hear a bang followed a sharp pain to you chest.
You were shot, but your vest saved you.
Your vest looks useless now.
Last edited by NoHitter , edited 17 times in total.
NoHitter
osu! Alumni
3,785 posts
Joined June 2009
Topic Starter
NoHitter
Rules:

General:
1) Do not quote your role PM or anything the mod gives to you.
2) Do not post screenshots or any sort of factual evidence of private communications, either with the mod or amongst yourselves.
3) Do not edit your posts.
4) Do not talk outside of the thread, unless your role PM allows so.
5) Mod has the final say on any issue. If the mod makes a mistake, feel free to PM him to sort it out.
6) If you need any help, or have questions, or just want to talk in general, feel free to PM the mod.
7) Dead men tell no tales. Dead people may not post in the thread.

Day:
1) Game starts at Night.
2) Deadlines will be 72 hours tentatively. Extensions may be placed depending on the activity.
3) You may vote someone by using this format: Vote : Player -- You may also choose to not lynch anyone. Vote: No-Lynch
4) You may also remove your vote by using this format: Unvote : Player
5) When a player receives more than half of the total votes at any point during the day, that player is automatically lynched.
6) Once a player is lynched, there shall be no posting in the thread even before the mod posts the lynch scene. Night will commence shortly.
7) If no one has been lynched, and the deadline has passed, the person with the most votes gets lynched. If there is a tie, the one who reached the tying amount of votes first, is lynched.
8) A player has to remain active, at least one post per 24 hours. If a player has not posted for 24 hours, one may request for them to be prodded.
9) If the player prodded doesn't respond, a he/she will be replaced.
10) If the player gets prodded three times already and still becomes inactive he/she will be automatically replaced.
11) If no replacement can be found. The player will be modkilled instead.

Night:
1) Night lasts 24 hours.
2) Any roles or factions with active night abilities may choose to use them by PM-ing the mod (see the Role PM for role-specific instructions).
3) Once the deadline for night has passed, all actions not received will count as a No Action.

Winning:
1) Town wins when they eliminate all threats to the town.
2) Any other faction wins when they control half the votes during Day unless otherwise specified in the Role PM.
3) Any other event will be up to the mod's discretion.
Last edited by NoHitter , edited 1 time in total.
Rantai
1,000 posts
Joined July 2010
Rantai
Lol.

/in
KRZY
Former osu! Champion: OWC#3
4,848 posts
Joined May 2009
KRZY
Gonna try this

in
DeathxShinigami
1,176 posts
Joined November 2008
DeathxShinigami
Sure wynaut?
Wojjan
806 posts
Joined August 2008
Wojjan
if you get 6, I'll be your seventh, but otherwise I won't be joining.
LadySuburu
80 posts
Joined June 2008
LadySuburu
I guess I'm in, since I usually don't play small themed games.
LadySuburu
80 posts
Joined June 2008
LadySuburu
Also I suggest in a 7p day to have a day deadline of no more than 3 days (on these forums, anyway).
pieguyn
2,020 posts
Joined May 2009
pieguyn
Oh wow lmao

/in
Lybydose
osu! Alumni
2,024 posts
Joined January 2009
Lybydose
ok ibnn

(wow did I really typo that bad? that should say in)
DeathxShinigami
1,176 posts
Joined November 2008
DeathxShinigami
Confirm.
LadySuburu
80 posts
Joined June 2008
LadySuburu
Yep.
NoHitter
osu! Alumni
3,785 posts
Joined June 2009
Topic Starter
NoHitter
What happens when two different bank robbers try to rob the same bank at opening time?
Normally, the death of one of the robbers, but the case here is different.

Four new guards who don't know each other, with vests were just hired the previous night.
Not to mention there's a doctor among the first people to visit the bank.

I guess it's time to aim those guns?
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

IT IS NOW NIGHT 0.
ALL ACTIONS MUST BE SENT IN 24 HOURS.
DeathxShinigami
1,176 posts
Joined November 2008
DeathxShinigami
You had to have ripped your night 0 story from this.

NoHitter
osu! Alumni
3,785 posts
Joined June 2009
Topic Starter
NoHitter
A barrage of shots was heard and everyone ducked to the ground.
Everyone stood up slowly and checked the surroundings.
Looks like no one has died yet.

IT IS NOW DAY 1.
DEADLINE IS IN 72 HOURS.
WITH 7 ALIVE, IT TAKES 4 TO LYNCH.
Rantai
1,000 posts
Joined July 2010
Rantai
Oh so it is day 1.

Hiya people.
LadySuburu
80 posts
Joined June 2008
LadySuburu
I'll post more soon but going to doctor in like a few minutes.

Now, unfortunately with a doctor the best plan for this setup may already be out the window. Since I don't know if the doctor used his protection or not, I cannot use the technique I wanted to use.

To explain further: If the doctor did NOT protect anyone last night, we can still do it. At that point the doctor should claim, as well as the other bulletproof who was shot. Any extra claims will provide us with a list of who is potentially mafia/sk, and get us on the right track for one. Otherwise we will have three confirmed town, which leaves us with 4 players to actually look through.

If the doctor DID protect someone last night, this strategy does not work at all, and we'll have to rely mainly on the normal play. Since the only confirmed we could get would be having the doctor claim, and since having that protection chance is good (although also risky, since you can stilll protect the sk or mafia), it would be better not to have him claim.

---------------

To explain the non-protect Night 0 for anyone who might not be able to figure it out: We have 4 bulletproof townies, and a doctor who I assume cannot self-protect. Therefore, if the doctor protects Night 0, the most likely result is accidentally protecting the mafia or SK from eachother, as well as stopping the information which could be gained from the claimed townies who were shot. Whereas we cannot change what has already happened so far this game, in future versions of this game if the same rules are used I would suggest this strategy.

ending post early cause I have to go, will post more later.
Wojjan
806 posts
Joined August 2008
Wojjan

LadySuburu wrote:

To explain further: If the doctor did NOT protect anyone last night, we can still do it. At that point the doctor should claim, as well as the other bulletproof who was shot. Any extra claims will provide us with a list of who is potentially mafia/sk, and get us on the right track for one. Otherwise we will have three confirmed town, which leaves us with 4 players to actually look through.
softclaiming hit I see. Not buying it <3
Lybydose
osu! Alumni
2,024 posts
Joined January 2009
Lybydose
Roleclaim: Bulletproof Townie who was hit during the night
LadySuburu
80 posts
Joined June 2008
LadySuburu

Wojjan wrote:

softclaiming hit I see. Not buying it <3
I wasn't softclaiming, that was meant to be an outright claim. Unless of course your definition of a softclaim is anything but "Claim: Bulletproof Townie" or something basically the same as that. If so, then sure that was a softclaim. I figured those playing weren't dumb enough to miss it, and if they did they weren't reading full posts and thus are either bad at mafia or aren't town.
LadySuburu
80 posts
Joined June 2008
LadySuburu
Speaking of which, any other people want to claim as a hit bulletproof?
Wojjan
806 posts
Joined August 2008
Wojjan
Nothing here.
DeathxShinigami
1,176 posts
Joined November 2008
DeathxShinigami
Nah I got nothing at all.

No one must've targeted me then.
KRZY
Former osu! Champion: OWC#3
4,848 posts
Joined May 2009
KRZY
Nothing on me either.
pieguyn
2,020 posts
Joined May 2009
pieguyn
So, there are two possibilities:

1. LadySuburu and Lybydose are confirmed town, then, unless no one else roleclaims. This would be true becuase a mafia would not roleclaim that under any circumstances, as the actual bulletproof townie would roleclaim and confirm one out of the three as mafia. Thus, they would then be 1 out of 3 instead of 1 out of 5.

2. Only one person got hit and one of them is mafia. This situation, however, doesn't make sense because a mafia would be unlikely to roleclaim that, since it would be 1 out of 2 instead of 1 out of 6 (though if 1 out of 2, we'd have a problem figuring out it was the case). This seems unlikely because it's hard for mafia/SK to tell if someone was hit or protected, or if both targeted the same person.

mod: Does the Serial Killer bypass bulletproof abilities? I didn't even think of this until I read the one post in LS's PyP game :? If it's true, one of the two people who were hit are mafia (or SK)

So for now, we have 5 players and 2 are mafia/SK. That is a 40% chance, it seems quite good IMO. (Unless someone else roleclaims)

Since two people were hit, I think it might be a good idea if the doctor claims anyway since no one was protected, but there's probably a problem with my logic here (and also we have the chance that one of them is mafia) ><//
LadySuburu
80 posts
Joined June 2008
LadySuburu
You see, there's also a problem with my logic which I've figured out.

Assuming the mafia or SK is smart enough to No Kill, they can then claim that they were hit. Of course, that would assume the doctor didn't protect them in which case they wouldn't have been hit and the doctor would have a confirmed mafia/sk because of his claim.

At this point if the doctor protected either me or Lyby, they should claim. We don't have to worry about a mafia/SK fake-claim since that would give us a guarenteed lynch tomorrow.

If the doctor protected nobody (took no action), they should claim and we'll get three confirmed town.

However as it stands, neither me or Lyby is confirmed town via logic.

I don't know if having the doctor claim if neither of the above are true would be a good idea.
Lybydose
osu! Alumni
2,024 posts
Joined January 2009
Lybydose
The role PM says this (NOTE THAT THIS IS IN THE ORIGINAL POST, IT ISN'T BREAKING ANY RULES)

You are a One-Shot Bulletproof sided with Town. You are immune from being nightkilled once. You will be informed if you get shot.
So I would assume it blocks SKs as well.
pieguyn
2,020 posts
Joined May 2009
pieguyn
Oh wow LS, that would be a master plan. (Even more so if you just did it yourself)

Lybydose, that's not what the role PM says. Different parts of it are bolded in the original post. However, that's very minor because I figure you just copied it and accidentally bolded the wrong part.
Lybydose
osu! Alumni
2,024 posts
Joined January 2009
Lybydose
No I bolded that part myself for emphasis
KRZY
Former osu! Champion: OWC#3
4,848 posts
Joined May 2009
KRZY
Alright now that I've had dinner and can think:

IMO the doctor must claim if he has protected either LS or Lybydose last night.

The reason for this is as follows. We currently have two people who claim to have been shot, LS and Lybydose. According to the setup, we have two players capable of shooting a player at night, the mafia and the SK. We must remember, however, that there is no guarantee that both the mafia and the SK shot someone during Night 0. Yes, it would be very foolish for them not to have, but it is still a possibility. If the doctor has protected one of the two, there is clearly something wrong, and it leads to the conclusion that one of the two are fake-claiming (of course, the doctor might be fake-claiming too, but for god's sake please don't do that.)
NoHitter
osu! Alumni
3,785 posts
Joined June 2009
Topic Starter
NoHitter

pieguy1372 wrote:

mod: Does the Serial Killer bypass bulletproof abilities?
The Serial Killer here uses bullets, so Bulletproofs are immune to them too.
Wojjan
806 posts
Joined August 2008
Wojjan
Nokilling in this setup is pretty smart, and I wouldn't put it past Lybydose OR LS to do so.
Lybydose
osu! Alumni
2,024 posts
Joined January 2009
Lybydose
Ok, we've got 30 hours. We should probably come up with some sort of strategy here.

We could go with a no-lynch and hope the maf/SK kill each other off, but that's somewhat risky as they could easily just kill me and Suburu instead of risking hitting other bulletproof players.

Alternatively, we could lynch someone other than myself and Suburu. Assuming LS is telling the truth, we would have a 50% chance of hitting SK or Mafia (since if we wind up voting the Doctor, he can just claim). Even if we mislynch and hit a bulletproof, it makes it all the more difficult for scum to false claim being hit, since it's more likely for the doctor to have targeted one of them, plus it would lower the number of possible legitimate claims to 3 (rather than the 4 we have now). Worse case possibly would be that we end up voting the Doctor and forcing a claim, and THEN mislynch a bulletproof.
pieguyn
2,020 posts
Joined May 2009
pieguyn
Sounds like a good idea, although there's a low chance it's 25% or even 0% based on whether the mafia, SK, or both did nothing.

vote: DeathxShinigami
Rantai
1,000 posts
Joined July 2010
Rantai

Lybydose wrote:

Ok, we've got 30 hours. We should probably come up with some sort of strategy here.

We could go with a no-lynch and hope the maf/SK kill each other off, but that's somewhat risky as they could easily just kill me and Suburu instead of risking hitting other bulletproof players.

Alternatively, we could lynch someone other than myself and Suburu. Assuming LS is telling the truth, we would have a 50% chance of hitting SK or Mafia (since if we wind up voting the Doctor, he can just claim). Even if we mislynch and hit a bulletproof, it makes it all the more difficult for scum to false claim being hit, since it's more likely for the doctor to have targeted one of them, plus it would lower the number of possible legitimate claims to 3 (rather than the 4 we have now). Worse case possibly would be that we end up voting the Doctor and forcing a claim, and THEN mislynch a bulletproof.
Worst case scenario: 7 people, mislynch, doctor dead, possibly LS or you dead.

We'd be down to 4 people the next day. If it comes to that I don't see us recovering without a lot of luck.

Well I guess we don't have anything but two unverifiable claims to go on so might as well give it a shot.
Wojjan
806 posts
Joined August 2008
Wojjan

Lybydose wrote:

We could go with a no-lynch and hope the maf/SK kill each other off, but that's somewhat risky as they could easily just kill me and Suburu instead of risking hitting other bulletproof players.

Alternatively, we could lynch someone other than myself and Suburu. Assuming LS is telling the truth, we would have a 50% chance of hitting SK or Mafia (since if we wind up voting the Doctor, he can just claim) You want to out doc on day one? Yeah, he'll go far. Even if we mislynch and hit a bulletproof, it makes it all the more difficult for scum to false claim being hit, since it's more likely for the doctor to have targeted one of them, plus it would lower the number of possible legitimate claims to 3 (rather than the 4 we have now). Again with the likeliness. Are you saying you wouldn't accept someone claiming hit because the chances of the doc being on them are kinda sorta high? Worse case possibly would be that we end up voting the Doctor and forcing a claim, and THEN mislynch a bulletproof. In this scenario we will be left, like Rantai said, in an almost autoloss, barring maf and sk being idiots and shooting each other.
Wojjan
806 posts
Joined August 2008
Wojjan
EBWOP: and what makes you think the mafia can't just claim doc when we get to that? You can argue they didn't kill him overnight but that's just wifom.
DeathxShinigami
1,176 posts
Joined November 2008
DeathxShinigami
So wait why the lone vote on me again pieguy?

O_o

19 hours to go...
Lybydose
osu! Alumni
2,024 posts
Joined January 2009
Lybydose
So what do you propose we do instead? Vote no lynch? Then they'll just kill me and Suburu overnight and we're back to Day 1 with two less people. Even if the doctor protects one of us, it's still Day 1 with 1 less person.

You act as if I'm wanting the doctor to claim, when I'm saying the doctor would only claim if we end up voting for him. You know, the exact same thing that would happen in every single case that involves lynching someone. Unless of course you wanted the doctor to not claim if he was about to be lynched.
Wojjan
806 posts
Joined August 2008
Wojjan
pretty much yeah. With two independent killers around, neither of them know who the other is going to target. The odds of them successfully hitting the right one out of both of you if the doc picks someone randomly are 3/4, so that a nice 1/4 chance we will have absolutely no deaths or hits tonight. This'll basically force either of them to get another hit or nokill to fakeclaim, which is where the wifom starts.

Vote: No lynch
KRZY
Former osu! Champion: OWC#3
4,848 posts
Joined May 2009
KRZY
If there were indeed two hits on Night 0, without the doctor claiming, chances are that the mafia and the SK will target who they have targeted before, and that guarantees at least one kill, whether it be Lybydose or LS. However, this doesn't even guarantee that the remaining person is town; for an extreme example, only LS might have been hit Night 0, Lybydose has fakeclaimed, the doc protects Lybydose, and Lybydose or the remaining mafia/SK hits LS for a kill.

Seeing as the doctor did not claim, it seems that he did not protect either LS or Lybydose during Night 0 (which is understandable, since the logical choice would have been to protect himself), which gives a bit more accountability to both LS and Lybydose's claims. At this point, if we force the doctor to claim by voting, and the doctor claims but does not specify who he is going to protect on Night 1, we risk having 0~2 deaths, possibly the doc being one of them.

1 certain town death vs 0~2 deaths that might include a doctor, what are your thoughts?
Wojjan
806 posts
Joined August 2008
Wojjan
Do the math for lynching instead. We mislynch on the doc, he claims and gets outed, forcing him to selfprotect overnight. Add another lynch on a possible and probable BP (because we're not gonna out doc jsut to nl afterwards, and we have nearly nothing to go on other than "these people might be town") and the chance of both hit BPs dying being a whopping 50% without doc there to protect them we could be facing either two or three towndeaths by lynching.

0~2 or 1~3, take a pick
Lybydose
osu! Alumni
2,024 posts
Joined January 2009
Lybydose
The problem with no-lynch is that the scum will probably just hit their same targets again tonight. I die and Suburu dies, and we wind up in the exact same situation we're in now except with two less people. And if the doctor protects one? Same thing but one less person instead!

There's pretty much no risk for them to hit the same targets again tonight.
LadySuburu
80 posts
Joined June 2008
LadySuburu
I really have no clue what to do. No Lynch may still be the better move, but there's tons of problems on both sides.

I'm leaning No Lynch for now. Losing one or both of the bulletproof members who already has lost their bulletproof is better than other scenarios, except getting a lynch on scum. However, if they don't try to kill us again they have a chance of hitting each other. Even if both me and Lyby are NKed, that leaves us at 3 - 2, with two bulletproof and a doctor. If we lynch AND both of us are NKed, worst case scenario we're at 2-2 potentially without a doctor.

Keeping our non-hit bulletproof members around for this first night seems better to me, but we do lose the chance to lynch scum.
LadySuburu
80 posts
Joined June 2008
LadySuburu

Lybydose wrote:

The problem with no-lynch is that the scum will probably just hit their same targets again tonight.
Same thing happens on a mislynch. The only scenario where that doesn't happen is a lynch of you or me, or hitting mafia/sk.
Rantai
1,000 posts
Joined July 2010
Rantai

LadySuburu wrote:

Same thing happens on a mislynch. The only scenario where that doesn't happen is a lynch of you or me, or hitting mafia/sk.
That's an interesting choice, it leaves the killers no choice but to search for other people to shoot if the doc protects the remaining expended BP leaving a chance for them to hit themselves. Worst case we lose the doc though. Best case we win, lol.
pieguyn
2,020 posts
Joined May 2009
pieguyn
@DxS: Just a random vote, but I'm going to reconsider what to do so unvote

The doctor should probably protect LS or Lyby, which ensures we only have one death among them. Then, it will be 1-1-3 if we lynch, 1-1-4 if we mislynch. We'll have
-1 mafia
-1 SK
-1 doctor
-1 townie
-2 bulletproof townies
(remove one for a lynch today) the next day. If we lynch today, we have 1-1-3 the next day, which is LyLo. I don't think there would be a way for us to win if we mislynch after that. The problem is that if only one of LS or Lyby is targeted, and the other one targets someone else, we could lose a doctor or a bulletproof ability, which would push us down even more.

The only problem with this is, how the hell do we find out who the mafia/SK is if we don't vote?

Oh well, we gain another day by doing no lynch today, so we might as well vote no lynch. Opinions?
Rantai
1,000 posts
Joined July 2010
Rantai
I'm starting to think a tactical lynch would work out a lot better.

~1/6 chance of losing the doctor in exchange for

~2/6 of a scum dying

~3/6 of no one dying

While a no lynch would give us;

~1/7 of doc dying

~2/7 of scum dying

~2/7 townie dying

~2/7 no one dying.

Mislynching is even worse.

The math is flawed but that's the baseline really.
DeathxShinigami
1,176 posts
Joined November 2008
DeathxShinigami
Going to bed soon.

Nothing much else we could do so I'll just

Vote: No lynch

:|
KRZY
Former osu! Champion: OWC#3
4,848 posts
Joined May 2009
KRZY
All options are under the assumption that mafia/SK will hit the target they hit on N0 and the doctor will protect either Lyby or LS.


If we decide to lynch someone, provided the target isn't Lyby or LS:

40% chance to lynch mafia/SK -> 50% chance of not losing any town member, 50% chance of losing either Lyby or LS

40% chance to lynch bulletproof town -> 100% chance of losing either Lyby or LS

20% chance to lynch doctor -> 100% chance of losing both Lyby and LS

which adds up to

20% chance of not losing any town member

20% chance of losing either Lyby or LS

40% chance of losing a town member AND either Lyby or LS

20% chance of losing the doctor, LS, and Lybydose


If we do not lynch

100% chance of losing either Lyby or LS



Expected value of lost town member

Lynch: 1.6
No Lynch: 1


Vote: No lynch
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