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Experimental Mafia (Game Over - Town Win Host Lose)

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rust45
1,085 posts
Joined May 2009
rust45
Just gonna point out things that peak my interest at the moment, I'm taking this all into consideration but I need to take time to comprehend it all first(especially since Ph0x likes to write novels).

foulcoon wrote:

I would like to think that perhaps DxS was the mason, but when i replaced him I was given another role with the same alignment?
I don't understand the logic behind this, why would you get a role change as a replacement? I would change the game balance.

Rolled wrote:

Also to MOD: If player x claims publicly player y is Mason, must player y deny it (assuming player x is correct) or be subject to modkill?
Why are talking like the variation of mason where they can't roleclaim is in this game? The only way you could know that masons couldn't roleclaim is if you were a mason.

Anyway, that's all I have to say for now, I must look over all the current walls over again.
Rolled
osu! Alumni
1,886 posts
Joined January 2008
Rolled
Masons can never roleclaim Mason AFAIK, regardless of the variation.
LadySuburu
80 posts
Joined June 2008
Topic Starter
LadySuburu

Rolled wrote:

Mod: Is it possible that you can shed some light on this? I understand you can't fully prove foulcoon to be lying or truthful, but can you perhaps show us what the Mason Townie's PM (Q's) looked like?

Also to MOD: If player x claims publicly player y is Mason, must player y deny it (assuming player x is correct) or be subject to modkill?

Haven't even bothered to read ph0x's wall. I'm going to get a night's sleep before I attempt to.

1. Closed setup - So no. I cannot show what the PM looked like.

2. It depends on the setup. As you said, generally masons are not allowed to claim. How far each host takes that is up to the individual host or game, sometimes going as far as forcing them to deny it (since it still would be claiming mason, even if they were accused of it). Also, if player X was a mason with player Y and did the above, it would be player X who is modkilled. Finally, the extent of the punishment is also up to the current mod.
bmin11
5,438 posts
Joined October 2008
bmin11

foulcoon wrote:

Heres my logic.

I know that 2 mafia voted for lynching Q.
So foulcoon has a power to read how many mafia voted for. However, not ending from here, he also said this:

foulcoon wrote:

I was given another role with the same alignment?
My assumption is; DxS was mason and as foulcoon replacing DxS, he received his new power. I think it's safe to say he is town since Mafia Mason isn't likely to receive another role and masons voting for their fellow mason isn't really logical...

I won't rule out other players who didn't vote for Q for the same reason raised by other players; there may be more then 2 mafias

May I ask you to reveal your alignments? It may bring some interesting points toward the D1 vote



My two suspicions are rust and Rolled (though my suspicion for Rolled is WIFOM)

rust45: the same reason as D1. Your accusation for Q seem like you were trying to cover your suspicion.

Rolled: Highly WIFOM.

Rolled wrote:

And take that fucking FoS off of me.
This is really unlike you. You overreacted towards foulcoon's FoS on you.
Now the WIFOM; I can basicaly use the same accusation you used for Ph0X, lynching the other influential player to gain more power during Days phase. I'm weighing since you immedietly went into action.
Two_old
620 posts
Joined March 2008
Two_old
foulcoon are you going to roleclaim so we can actually get somewhere

or are you going to leave us unsure as to whether you are actually sure that 2 mafia voted for quaraezha

edit: and I should add that by saying what you said you basically said that bmin11 and rolled are mafia, do you really think that?
bmin11
5,438 posts
Joined October 2008
bmin11
Request for replacement
I don't have much time on my hand, so I'm asking for a replacement. Sorry guys...
Sleep Powder
1,540 posts
Joined October 2008
Sleep Powder
srs time

@MOD, can there be multiple Mason groups? (since I don't think I can ask IF there are any)

@Ph0X, you make much more sense than Two, but just in case you're trying to mislead me I'll have to reread your post instead.
(I can't understand Two's post even after rereading...)
Oh, you could swap with a possible mafia. I haven't thought of that scenario yet...(offensive instead of defensive role)
Maybe he thought I wouldn't NK Rolled because I voted for him during Day 1. Meaning that I shouldn't have suspected Rolled
in the first place. If not, then he was just underestimating me and some other meta-gaming thing you guys are doing. (Reason for me being a bit unsure of the situation.) There is a lot of focus on this meta-pairing and assumptions...
LadySuburu
80 posts
Joined June 2008
Topic Starter
LadySuburu

animask wrote:

srs time

@MOD, can there be multiple Mason groups? (since I don't think I can ask IF there are any)

@Ph0X, you make much more sense than Two, but just in case you're trying to mislead me I'll have to reread your post instead.
(I can't understand Two's post even after rereading...)
Oh, you could swap with a possible mafia. I haven't thought of that scenario yet...(offensive instead of defensive role)
Maybe he thought I wouldn't NK Rolled because I voted for him during Day 1. Meaning that I shouldn't have suspected Rolled
in the first place. If not, then he was just underestimating me and some other meta-gaming thing you guys are doing. (Reason for me being a bit unsure of the situation.) There is a lot of focus on this meta-pairing and assumptions...
Multiple mason groups can exist, yes.
Rolled
osu! Alumni
1,886 posts
Joined January 2008
Rolled

bmin wrote:

Rolled: Highly WIFOM.

Rolled wrote:

And take that fucking FoS off of me.
Two_old
620 posts
Joined March 2008
Two_old
I find it suspicious that all of you are acting like you are unable to understand plain english. I'm really not that bad of a writer, and my format wasn't bad either.

Also, you realize that if foulcoon does have the ability to see how many mafia voted for the lynch target, we have already won right? Let me show you:
Voted for Quaraezha
Rolled
Two
rust45
bmin11

If we voted for rolled today, mafia or not, that brings the list to:
Two
Rust45
bmin11

human count at that point would be 3:2 or 4:1

you then vote for either rust45 or bmin and you have a 100% chance to hit mafia if it's 3:2 or 50% if it's 4:1

the human count then looks like this: 2:1

finally, you lynch the remaining player

if there are 3 mafia members then this was a bad setup and I don't mind losing anyway
LadySuburu
80 posts
Joined June 2008
Topic Starter
LadySuburu

bmin11 wrote:

Request for replacement
I don't have much time on my hand, so I'm asking for a replacement. Sorry guys...
Lilac replaces bmin11, effective once he posts in the thread.
Lilac
Elite Mapper
1,515 posts
Joined December 2008
Lilac
Yo guys. I kinda read through this thread already so... Yay. ^_^
Two_old
620 posts
Joined March 2008
Two_old
and yet your post was as substantial as a quaraezha post
Sleep Powder
1,540 posts
Joined October 2008
Sleep Powder
@foulcoon, 2 mafias voted for Quy? I see... (I did research.)
I believe you for now...

@Two, Rolled Two rust45 bmin11 are your suspects for mafia?
I see how you tried to narrow down the suspects (and included yourself), but
doing that makes me think that you're trying to protect someone (one person not Two) I couldn't resist a Two pun...
Just an idea because I don't have much information to back up that theory.

For a while, I was so lost in all the posts I didn't know what was going on. Now I get it...
Two_old
620 posts
Joined March 2008
Two_old
animask what I said isn't hard to understand

I'm going to try to make it pop-up book easy for you:

foulcoon: I know for SURE that there are 2 mafia who voted for quaraezha

two: here are all the people who voted for quaraezha, if we lynch them systematically then we win (if foulcoon roleclaims)
Lilac
Elite Mapper
1,515 posts
Joined December 2008
Lilac
^ this animask guy. XD ^

Regardless, seeing this, I'm not really sure what else you want me to say. You've pinned all who voted for Q yesterday as possible Mafia if foulcoon is actually DOES have the ability to see how many Mafia did vote for the lynch which I'm not sure where you brought that up from considering he hasn't even roleclaimed (remember, a claim is still...just a claim.), plus not including yourself in the statistic of percentage of lynching Mafia seems like you really want to distance yourself.

However, it is an interesting theory and a plausible one as well, so I won't ignore that. However, after lynching Rolled and finding out he is Mafia, it is also possible that if you were to lynch either Two, rust or I that the next day that you would get a 33% chance of lynching the right person. If Rolled wasn't, then it'll be a 66% chance next day.
Sleep Powder
1,540 posts
Joined October 2008
Sleep Powder
almost FoS Two

I understood what you said and those are the people who voted for Quy, but if we actually miss 2 out of those
and it turns out that one of the 3rd (out of 4) isn't mafia, then that would be a townie disadvantage and you both would
be an accomplice or just foulcoon.

Idea not assumption

Two and foulcoon are mafia and claiming that there is a mafia member that voted for Quy when there isn't.
Two_old
620 posts
Joined March 2008
Two_old
Oh lord another one. I'm hoping mario's lack of understanding is founded in his inherited mafia role, and not elsewhere...
Lilac
Elite Mapper
1,515 posts
Joined December 2008
Lilac
I think you should be answering animask instead. I was just trying to correct your statistics, that's all.
Two_old
620 posts
Joined March 2008
Two_old
You can't correct something that is 100% accurate, sorry. And I don't feel that I should be answering someone who doesn't even understand what he himself is talking about. It's like he randomly puts words down. I actually think you should re-read the thread starting from the end of day 1, Lilac.

Maybe directly answering him will help him though?

@Two, Rolled Two rust45 bmin11 are your suspects for mafia?
no, ph0x is my suspect for mafia

but, if foulcoon is telling the truth and really knows without a doubt that 2 mafia voted for quaraezha, then it makes no sense to vote for ph0x and we should then vote for everyone who voted for quaraezha, except me

edit for addition: so I am waiting for foulcoon to roleclaim or correct himself
Lilac
Elite Mapper
1,515 posts
Joined December 2008
Lilac

Two wrote:

You can't correct something that is 100% accurate, sorry. And I don't feel that I should be answering someone who doesn't even understand what he himself is talking about. It's like he randomly puts words down. I actually think you should re-read the thread starting from the end of day 1, Lilac.
Regardless if it's 100% accurate, it's still circumstantial. I know what I'm talking about, Two. Unless you are confirmed town, your initial statistic is flawed COMPLETELY. If there are two Mafia and lynching both rust and I turns up we are both town, you've done wonderfully well. I've read through this whole thread and unless you've got specific evidence to say you are town then by all means continue to pummel me and go nowhere.

HoS: Two
Two_old
620 posts
Joined March 2008
Two_old

Lilac wrote:

Regardless if it's 100% accurate, it's still circumstantial. I know what I'm talking about, Two. Unless you are confirmed town, your initial statistic is flawed COMPLETELY.
stopped reading there

re-read the goddamn thread thx
Rolled
osu! Alumni
1,886 posts
Joined January 2008
Rolled
Question to everybody:
Which one of these three are the most likely situation for how foulcoon claims to be certain ph0x and animask are not mafia?

1.) Q, foulcoon, animask and ph0x are all Mason. (obviously not town mason)

2.) Q, foulcoon, animask OR ph0x are Mason, and foulcoon also is a Sane Cop

3.) foulcoon has the ability to see how many mafia members voted for the lynch target

4.) foulcoon is mafia.

5.) Other. please explain.

Truthfully I couldn't tell you why everybody is trusting foulcoon (so fucking blindly), but it appears that he is indeed trusted.
Now while I personally do not think that foulcoon is mafia (though it is a possibility), I strongly feel that he's just a terribly misguided townie. In fact, I'm still going to hold strong to my original post until foulcoon gives me reason to think otherwise.

Let me get this post out of the way. A textwall will be arriving in the near future, fair warning.
Sleep Powder
1,540 posts
Joined October 2008
Sleep Powder
Regardless if it's 100% accurate, it's still circumstantial.

Also, FoS Two. You're not defending yourself with facts, now are you?
Lilac
Elite Mapper
1,515 posts
Joined December 2008
Lilac

Two wrote:

if you aren't going to be here between now and then, vote now pls

Ph0X wrote:

hard reader, possibly has aux role

bmin11 wrote:

short posts

Rolled wrote:

Two is an easier nightkill target than I am, in general. He has a higher rate of success in these games than I do.
Still going...feel free to stop me. I'm assuming it's got to do with Ph0x's assumptions though...
Sleep Powder
1,540 posts
Joined October 2008
Sleep Powder
@Rolled, I would go with 4 because that is really the best way to be certain. 4.) foulcoon is mafia.
Two_old
620 posts
Joined March 2008
Two_old

Lilac wrote:

Still going...feel free to stop me. I'm assuming it's got to do with Ph0x's assumptions though...
all you have to do is read my first post on day 2 to understand

I wanted you to read before that so you understood foulcoon's position
Lilac
Elite Mapper
1,515 posts
Joined December 2008
Lilac
That if foulcoon/DxS is probably considered Mafia due to what Chris said before he was nightkilled?
Two_old
620 posts
Joined March 2008
Two_old
that literally makes no sense

read what you just wrote word by word

edit: but no I am obviously not trying to make you think that foulcoon is mafia

I just wanted you to see the relationship between him and quaraezha
Rolled
osu! Alumni
1,886 posts
Joined January 2008
Rolled
Okay, there is a lot I want to say, and right now I'm really writing this whole post on the fly without much thought to the structure. Let me first of all get to the point.

If I am lynched today, the town will lose this game.
I am telling you this with utmost certainty. If I get lynched, another townie will get NKed, and the ratio will be 3 town: 2 mafia. Sure, there's a chance of town still winning, but it's a chance that it not worth taking.

The things that people pin on me for being scummy make me fucking facepalm.

bmin wrote:

My two suspicions are rust and Rolled (though my suspicion for Rolled is WIFOM)

rust45: the same reason as D1. Your accusation for Q seem like you were trying to cover your suspicion.

Rolled: Highly WIFOM.

Rolled wrote:

And take that fucking FoS off of me.
I know bmin isn't even in this game anymore, but this is the situation that's sticking out the most in my head. Did everybody read my post to foulcoon? Like, READ it. Or did you just skim it, and in the end notice my sarcasm, and that's the only point sticking in your mind? Ask yourself if I (or anybody else) would build up a defense as strong as that as mafia. If your answer is yes, than thank you and all, but you're giving me way too much fucking credit.

I feel that my reasoning for feeling foulcoon being Mason is solid. I've also yet to see anybody question it. If you can't supply me reasoning as to why foulcoon is not Mason, than why is nobody considering the fact that maybe he is? Am I also the only one to notice how he went from smart ass, FoSing Rolled, super-certain Foulcoon to a grasping, kind of easy-going Foulcoon as soon as I posted?

Now let's go back and consider that maybe foulcoon has the ability to see who voted for the target on D1.

Has a role like this ever existed? Please give me a link to it on the wiki or something, as I'm not too familiar with mafia in general.
If you all are suggesting that it's a role LS just created on the spot, this game being the first to have it, I doubt that.
When LS has a new role idea, you can expect a public discussion before actually releasing it in a game.

If somebody can however direct me to the role which foulcoon supposedly has, then I will realize that I may need to change my approach in this game greatly. But until then, he's still Mason. And if foulcoon does not claim a role with this ability, than that only support the idea that he is Mason. He's practically claimed he has the ability to know that animask and ph0x are mafia, why not just state his role? (for those arguing that I'm role-fishing)

Goddddddd my thoughts are all over the place.

Let's just start quoting people now.

foulcoon wrote:

I would like to think that perhaps DxS was the mason, but when i replaced him I was given another role with the same alignment?

Also, my role PM doesn't say anything about masons at all.
The first suggestion is a joke. First and foremost, why the hell would LS give foulcoon a different role? Second, why the hell would foulcoon believe he had a different role? I see nothing but an attempt to grasp at something that isn't there in this post.

Q wrote:

We did not share Mason PMs to the mods
This above statement shows that Mason have the ability to communicate during the day (since Q was lynched d1, and Masons usually can only communicate at night IF at all) So that supplies some reasoning as to why this game is going in the direction it is going. It also supports my theory (in my eyes) that Ph0x is Mafia Mason, as his posts thus far haven't done anything but really reiterate what others have said. He's picking apart people's logic and reasoning in order to make himself seem to be open-minded to all possibilities, and hasn't really pursued any of his self-gathered tells.

In plain terms, I feel that Ph0x is using his daytime private talking ability to manipulate the other Mason's (foulcoon, animask?) into believing what they believe.

animask wrote:

@MOD, can there be multiple Mason groups? (since I don't think I can ask IF there are any)
I don't see how that would effect anything that's happening right now in this game.

animask wrote:

@foulcoon, 2 mafias voted for Quy? I see... (I did research.)
I believe you for now...
Why are you so easy to believe foulcoon?

Okay I guess that's it. This post fucking blows.

Suggestion: Is there a ballot box manager out there? If so, roleclaim.
The easiest way to find whether Foulcoon is telling the truth or not will be to lynch him, and recount the votes if he happens to be pro-town.
If I'm understanding the Ballot Box Manager's role correctly, we can undo the lynching of foulcoon after we see his confirmed role?
Two_old
620 posts
Joined March 2008
Two_old

Rolled wrote:

Now let's go back and consider that maybe foulcoon has the ability to see who voted for the target on D1.

Has a role like this ever existed? Please give me a link to it on the wiki or something, as I'm not too familiar with mafia in general.
If you all are suggesting that it's a role LS just created on the spot, this game being the first to have it, I doubt that.
When LS has a new role idea, you can expect a public discussion before actually releasing it in a game.
http://mafiascum.net/wiki/index.php?title=Sensor
Rolled
osu! Alumni
1,886 posts
Joined January 2008
Rolled
Fuck, okay. Waiting for foulcoon to role-claim sensor.
Ph0X
1,043 posts
Joined March 2009
Ph0X

Rolled wrote:

I feel that my reasoning for feeling foulcoon being Mason is solid. I've also yet to see anybody question it.
Did you forget to read my post? Or are you really blind?

Rolled wrote:

Am I also the only one to notice how he went from smart ass, FoSing Rolled, super-certain Foulcoon to a grasping, kind of easy-going Foulcoon as soon as I posted?
No, I didn't see that. Let me look again.

Nope. I think you're letting your emotions affect your thinking.

Rolled wrote:

Now let's go back and consider that maybe foulcoon has the ability to see who voted for the target on D1.

Has a role like this ever existed? Please give me a link to it on the wiki or something, as I'm not too familiar with mafia in general.
If you all are suggesting that it's a role LS just created on the spot, this game being the first to have it, I doubt that.
When LS has a new role idea, you can expect a public discussion before actually releasing it in a game.

If somebody can however direct me to the role which foulcoon supposedly has, then I will realize that I may need to change my approach in this game greatly. But until then, he's still Mason.
Knowledgeable townie and sensor are two I can think of. (The former usually gains their knowledge at the start of the game, but I wouldn't find it hard to believe they could gain knowledge throughout the game.)

Rolled wrote:

He's practically claimed he has the ability to know that animask and ph0x are mafia, ...
I don't remember him saying that. Typo?

Rolled wrote:

foulcoon wrote:

I would like to think that perhaps DxS was the mason, but when i replaced him I was given another role with the same alignment?

Also, my role PM doesn't say anything about masons at all.
The first suggestion is a joke. First and foremost, why the hell would LS give foulcoon a different role? Second, why the hell would foulcoon believe he had a different role? I see nothing but an attempt to grasp at something that isn't there in this post.
I read that quote as "wtf are you talking about Rolled? maybe LS changed my role from mason to [whatever I am now], but I don't see how your conclusion relates to what I have said", or something. Maybe I am giving foul too much credit.

Rolled wrote:

[Ph0X]'s picking apart people's logic and reasoning in order to make himself seem to be open-minded to all possibilities, and hasn't really pursued any of his self-gathered tells.
I'm picking apart people's logic for several reasons:
  1. I want to understand what they are saying.
  2. I want to make sure I am not misunderstanding what they are saying.
  3. I want to write down conclusions I find along the way.
  4. I want to use my notes to help build an argument when I am ready.
And frankly, I am not ready quite yet.

Also, see what I have done day 1. What you just said contradicts what I have done.

Rolled wrote:

In plain terms, I feel that Ph0x is using his daytime private talking ability to manipulate the other Mason's (foulcoon, animask?) into believing what they believe.
I am not a mason. I also have never been a mason, and I have not dealt with masons in LS games. However, from what I know of masons, they typically do not communicate during the daytime.
Two_old
620 posts
Joined March 2008
Two_old

Ph0X wrote:

Rolled wrote:

In plain terms, I feel that Ph0x is using his daytime private talking ability to manipulate the other Mason's (foulcoon, animask?) into believing what they believe.
I am not a mason. I also have never been a mason, and I have not dealt with masons in LS games. However, from what I know of masons, they typically do not communicate during the daytime.
What do you make of quaraezha's day 2 post then?

And what do you think about my idea of systematic lynching, assuming foulcoon claims sensor?
Ph0X
1,043 posts
Joined March 2009
Ph0X
Let's say that there are seven players, and two of four specific players are known to be mafia.

Let's call those four potentially-mafia players A, B, X, and Y. Let's say A and B are townies, and X and Y are mafia.

It's clearly in the best interest of the mafia to kill players not in this set of four players, so I will not consider those possibilities.

Here are the possible lynch permutations, assuming all vanilla:

TT 1/4 M
Day 2, 7 players (5/2); lynch A; alive: B, X, Y
Day 3, 5 players (3/2); lynch B; alive: X, Y
Day 4, 3 players (1/2); mafia win

TMT 1/8 M
Day 2, 7 players (5/2); lynch A; alive: B, X, Y
Day 3, 5 players (3/2); lynch X; alive: B, Y
Day 4, 3 players (2/1); lynch B; alive: Y
Day 5, 1 players (0/1); mafia win

TMM 1/8 T
Day 2, 7 players (5/2); lynch A; alive: B, X, Y
Day 3, 5 players (3/2); lynch X; alive: B, Y
Day 4, 3 players (2/1); lynch Y; alive: B
Day 5, 2 players (2/0); town win

MTT 1/8 M
Day 2, 7 players (5/2); lynch X; alive: A, B, Y
Day 3, 5 players (4/1); lynch A; alive: B, Y
Day 4, 3 players (2/1); lynch B; alive: Y
Day 5, 1 players (0/1); mafia win

MTM 1/8 T
Day 2, 7 players (5/2); lynch X; alive: A, B, Y
Day 3, 5 players (4/1); lynch A; alive: B, Y
Day 4, 3 players (2/1); lynch Y; alive: B
Day 5, 2 players (2/0); town win

MM 1/4 T
Day 2, 7 players (5/2); lynch X; alive: A, B, Y
Day 3, 5 players (4/1); lynch Y; town win

(Format is: lynches in order (M=mafia, T=town), probability of the situation occurring given random chance, eventual win.)

Let's tally up the probabilities:

TT 1/4 M
TMT 1/8 M
TMM 1/8 T
MTT 1/8 M
MTM 1/8 T
MM 1/4 T

M = 1/4 + 1/8 + 1/8 = 1/2 = 50%
T = 1/8 + 1/8 + 1/4 = 1/2 = 50%

If we assume foul is telling the truth, randomly lynching will not tilt the odds in either team's favor. This is what MM (Lilac) was trying to say, Two.

Things are different if we are only looking at three players (one townie, two mafia). Basically, just chop off the TT, TMT, and MTT possibilities:

TMM 1/8 T
MTM 1/8 T
MM 1/4 T

So what do we get? A guaranteed townie win.

Of course, this all hinges on a few assumptions:
  1. foul is telling the truth.
  2. All lynches and nightkills are successful.
  3. No lynches and nightkills are reversed.
  4. There is one confirmed townie among the four.
If the "confirmed townie" is mafia, it's a guaranteed mafia win, unless someone wakes up in time.
Ph0X
1,043 posts
Joined March 2009
Ph0X

Two wrote:

Ph0X wrote:

[quote removed]
I am not a mason. I also have never been a mason, and I have not dealt with masons in LS games. However, from what I know of masons, they typically do not communicate during the daytime.
What do you make of quaraezha's day 2 post then?
Nothing. I am disregarding what Q said completely.

Two wrote:

And what do you think about my idea of systematic lynching, assuming foulcoon claims sensor?
See the post I just made. (You posted after I started writing it.)
Two_old
620 posts
Joined March 2008
Two_old
Fantastic, so you agree with my plan.
Ph0X
1,043 posts
Joined March 2009
Ph0X

Ph0X wrote:

Of course, this all hinges on a few assumptions:
  1. foul is telling the truth.
  2. All lynches and nightkills are successful.
  3. No lynches and nightkills are reversed.
  4. There is one confirmed townie among the four.
Add to that list:
  1. No other kills are made.
Ph0X
1,043 posts
Joined March 2009
Ph0X
Vote: Two
Two_old
620 posts
Joined March 2008
Two_old
? I'm pretty sure you agreed with me here

So what do we get? A guaranteed townie win.
edit: and also you and I both know there will be no extra kills, this is the role list if foulcoon is a sensor

2 aux: chris.foulcoon
2 mafia from the 3 of these people: rolled/lilac/rust
2 masons: quaraezha and ???
3 town: me, ??? ???
Ph0X
1,043 posts
Joined March 2009
Ph0X

Two wrote:

? I'm pretty sure you agreed with me here

So what do we get? A guaranteed townie win.
"foul claims sensor" != "foul is proven sensor".

Also, there are the other assumptions to consider.

If those assumptions are made, yes, I agree with you. But those assumptions are not being made right now, so no, I do not agree with you.
Ph0X
1,043 posts
Joined March 2009
Ph0X

Two wrote:

edit: and also you and I both know there will be no extra kills, this is the role list if foulcoon is a sensor

2 aux: chris.foulcoon
2 mafia from the 3 of these people: rolled/lilac/rust
2 masons: quaraezha and ???
3 town: me, ??? ???
(Please don't edit posts.)

There are modkills, and there may be a vig role or something. I don't like to discount circumstances which are very real and possible.
Two_old
620 posts
Joined March 2008
Two_old
it's not very real and possible for there to be 3 aux and 2 masons in a 9 person game

edit: and I will continue to edit my posts that don't change post content thx
Lilac
Elite Mapper
1,515 posts
Joined December 2008
Lilac
Question to Ph0X: What happens if there are no lynches made today?

Something tells me that the odds would be terrible...
Two_old
620 posts
Joined March 2008
Two_old
we are already down 2 town so that makes it either:

3 mafia vs 4 town (lol)
or
2 mafia vs 5 town

nolynch would make it 100%

3 mafia vs 2 town
or
2 mafia vs 3 town

nolynch is always bad but especially now
Two_old
620 posts
Joined March 2008
Two_old

Two wrote:

nolynch would make it 100%

3 mafia vs 3 town
or
2 mafia vs 4 town
foulcoon
osu! Alumni
1,384 posts
Joined July 2008
foulcoon
You guys will just have to trust me on this one.

I like Two's plan, but remove the voting for Rolled specifically part and the exempting Two from lynching (that he is trying to work in so badly). I'm more inclined to believe that bmin wouldn't just drop out of a mafia role and ask for replacement, but its always a possibility.
Rolled
osu! Alumni
1,886 posts
Joined January 2008
Rolled
Wait, I'm getting voted for somewhere in this strategy?

foulcoon wrote:

I like Two's plan, but remove the voting for Rolled specifically part and the exempting Two from lynching (that he is trying to work in so badly). I'm more inclined to believe that bmin wouldn't just drop out of a mafia role and ask for replacement, but its always a possibility.
Does this translate to "rust and Two are mafia?" I'm confused.
Two_old
620 posts
Joined March 2008
Two_old
are you saying you don't have a sensor role?

yes/no? very simple

and I'm not trying "very badly" to exclude myself, I already excluded myself in my first post, which was then supported by rolled and ph0x

which is why it's funny that ph0x even voted for me
Ph0X
1,043 posts
Joined March 2009
Ph0X

Two wrote:

and I'm not trying "very badly" to exclude myself, I already excluded myself in my first post, which was then supported by rolled and ph0x

which is why it's funny that ph0x even voted for me
Cite exactly where that was "supported by ... ph0x".
foulcoon
osu! Alumni
1,384 posts
Joined July 2008
foulcoon

Two wrote:

I find it suspicious that all of you are acting like you are unable to understand plain english. I'm really not that bad of a writer, and my format wasn't bad either.

Also, you realize that if foulcoon does have the ability to see how many mafia voted for the lynch target, we have already won right? Let me show you:
Voted for Quaraezha
Rolled
Two
rust45
bmin11

If we voted for rolled today, mafia or not, that brings the list to:
Two
Rust45
bmin11

human count at that point would be 3:2 or 4:1

you then vote for either rust45 or bmin and you have a 100% chance to hit mafia if it's 3:2 or 50% if it's 4:1

the human count then looks like this: 2:1

finally, you lynch the remaining player

if there are 3 mafia members then this was a bad setup and I don't mind losing anyway
Also, I am not saying that I don't have an aux role. As a matter of fact, I do have an aux role. I'll leave it at that. The fate of town basically rests on a voting alliance with myself, Ph0X and animask (or myself, one of Ph0X OR animask, and 2 of the 4 accused). Once all 3 of us vote one way, at least one of the 4 accused should vote the same way, starting the systematic lynching of the 4 giving us what I believe is the best chance at winning this.

@Ph0x, animask: your thoughts?
Two_old
620 posts
Joined March 2008
Two_old
look, you say ph0x and animask aren't mafia

I believe 100% animask isn't, and I believe you aren't

you also say that 2 mafia voted for quaraezha

I'm willing to vote for rust45 or Lilac, and I'd prefer rust45 since he's been lurking this whole game

edit for elaboration: we have 3 lynches left so rust45 will be the information everyone needs
Ph0X
1,043 posts
Joined March 2009
Ph0X

foulcoon wrote:

@Ph0x, animask: your thoughts?
I think I already answered that question.
foulcoon
osu! Alumni
1,384 posts
Joined July 2008
foulcoon
rust45 and Lilac (bmin) are the only two who haven't outright claimed town (I think?). Its not that I completely believe either Two or Rolled, I just find it ironic. I'm starting to lean towards voting rust as he has been just lurking for the most part, and I've had my suspicions in the past about him.
Two_old
620 posts
Joined March 2008
Two_old
ok then

unvote, vote rust45
Rolled
osu! Alumni
1,886 posts
Joined January 2008
Rolled
unvote: vote rust
Ph0X
1,043 posts
Joined March 2009
Ph0X
inb4 foul, Two, and Rolled are all mafia.
Two_old
620 posts
Joined March 2008
Two_old
inb4 ph0x tries to derail productivity

nm
rust45
1,085 posts
Joined May 2009
rust45
Whoa Whoa Whoa, hold on. Don't you think it's tad early to be trying to bandwagaon someone? Yes I have been lurking-ish and I know it does hurt the game. But I can't really help it. Honestly, I think it's suspicious how you guys are going so fast at trying to get a bandwagon in. I'm gonna put on FoS: Two for now as I think it's a tad early for voting(even if we can unvote at the moment) I would but an FoS on rolled but I have reason to believe he's townie.
Two_old
620 posts
Joined March 2008
Two_old
cry more

the fact is you have lurked for this whole game, I've seen you do it just by being active myself

I can't even remember anything you have contributed and I feel it was intentional

your death gives too much information, it makes no sense not to lynch you when you also have been acting like mafia
Sleep Powder
1,540 posts
Joined October 2008
Sleep Powder
I find that bandwagon vote hilarious btw... (Two/Rolled)

Vote: Two

@rust45, early isn't really an issue, but what makes you think Rolled is a townie?
Two_old
620 posts
Joined March 2008
Two_old
and I find your lack of understanding disgusting as a human being and american

edit: at least have the humility to ask questions and educate yourself
Two_old
620 posts
Joined March 2008
Two_old
you know what? I'm tired of this game

I'm tired of having to try to convince people that refuse to read, that refuse to comprehend, that refuse to even participate in this game

newsflash: I was confirmed town day 2

anyone with half a brain that read the thread knew that already (ie no one)

but I guess that isn't plain enough for you people is it? how about this:

roleclaim sane cop

that good enough? lets just get rid of our safety net and rest all of our hopes on whether foulcoon is lying or not (hint: he is if we lynch rust45 and he isn't mafia)

SPOILER
Two_old
620 posts
Joined March 2008
Two_old
at night I scanned rolled but was roleblocked, when chris died in the morning I knew for sure that he used his ability on me because of that

I then figured that if rolled were to night kill me it wouldn't have been because he thought I was aux, and so he wouldn't roleblock me

so then I turned to the other person who supposedly thinks: ph0x, and centered my post around the point of him being mafia

and then we have his name cleared by the information that 2 mafia voted for quaraezha

and so that leaves rust45 (likely to be mafia by his actions), lilac (likely to be mafia by his actions, also tried to group me, rolled and chris together as bmin, which he thought was safe at that point since it had already been said twice before that I believe), and rolled, who is almost definitely not mafia for multiple reasons

because of the above, here is what you do:
lynch rust45 today, he is confirmed mafia for sure, force lilac not to vote for him
then I die at night, foulcoon says how many mafia voted for rust45 in the morning
when he gets 0, you then lynch lilac and win

worst case scenarios:
1. rolled is mafia and it takes 1 extra day to win, big deal
2. foulcoon lied (most likely if rust45 is town), in which case you lynch foulcoon on day 3 and choose between animask and ph0x on day 4 (I suggest ph0x)

now don't expect me to reply to anything stupid you say in response, I will only be voting from now on for the sake of my sanity
Rolled
osu! Alumni
1,886 posts
Joined January 2008
Rolled

animask wrote:

I find that bandwagon vote hilarious btw... (Two/Rolled)
I knew you would ^___^

It's not so much me bandwagoning as it is me agreeing, though.
rust45
1,085 posts
Joined May 2009
rust45
Well Two that's funny, because I don't believe you're the cop. Considering I'm the cop.
And last night I investigated Rolled and found him to be innocent. As to what you're trying to pass off as the truth, it's untrue considering I'm the cop.

He's my theory of what happened assuming you're mafia:
You or your partner wanted to kill Rolled because you figured a kill on him would distance you from the killing, but Chris had swapped himself with Rolled. Thus Chris got killed instead. Then you assumed this when the day started and decided to try to make people think you were the attempted murder of the night, trying to make you look town.
Rolled
osu! Alumni
1,886 posts
Joined January 2008
Rolled
God damnit.

unvote

Not voting until I figure this shit out.
Rolled
osu! Alumni
1,886 posts
Joined January 2008
Rolled

Two wrote:

roleclaim sane cop
This did bother me. How would you know whether or not you were sane at this point in the game, assuming you were truthful about the N1 actions?
Rolled
osu! Alumni
1,886 posts
Joined January 2008
Rolled

Two wrote:

at night I scanned rolled but was roleblocked
Two is also suggestiing that he was both the target for NK, and roleblocked. That's just kind of weird, and would be hard for him to conclude both just based on what he thinks my meta would be.

Okay, suggestions now, based on Two's plan ^_^:

Either Rust or Two is mafia, this goes without say based on counter-claims and LAL policy.

Rust's overall cop claim story sounds more believable. Focusing solely on the cop-claim, not activity that happened earlier in the game.

The ratio of humans:mafia right now is 5:2. If we lynch Two today, the possibilities are as follows:

1.) Two is mafia. Day 3 ratio will be 1:4, and assuming foulcoon's claim is correct, lilac is the other mafia.
2.) Two's is town. Day 3 ratio will be 2:3, however (still assuming foulcoon is correct), Lilac and Rust are both mafia.

The only way town will lose is if foulcoon or myself is mafia. I appear to have support of my innocence from both mafia side and town side, and I along with other people have reason to believe foulcoon is town.

This is pretty much an attempt to redeem myself in this game, as I've been an absolute terrible town player. I'll be changing the way I play for future games. Sorry team :(
Two_old
620 posts
Joined March 2008
Two_old
oh cool rust45 admits he's mafia now

the reason why I said sane cop is because I asked ladysuburu immediately if I was sane

she said that she shouldn't tell me this but yes

edit: last post I promise :X
I will only be voting from now on for the sake of my sanity
Last edited by Two_old , edited 1 time in total.
Rolled
osu! Alumni
1,886 posts
Joined January 2008
Rolled
If you were willing to vote Rust/Rolled/Bmin, based on just foulcoon's claim, then why are you not willing to substitute yourself in there. It's the same concept, town will still win.
Two_old
620 posts
Joined March 2008
Two_old

Rolled wrote:

If you were willing to vote Rust/Rolled/Bmin, based on just foulcoon's claim, then why are you not willing to substitute yourself in there. It's the same concept, town will still win.
Think about this: rust45 knows that town can do that. Why would he even bother to roleclaim then unless that plan wouldn't work?

Also, I never said I wouldn't, you just assumed that out of thin air again. You are predisposed to believing I'm mafia. That's why you went from thinking rust45 was mafia, to his weak counterclaim suddenly making me look like mafia. No rational person goes from point a to d.

Anyway if you guys really end up being dumb enough to buy his claim, the safest course of action is just to leave us both alive and lynch Lilac. I absolutely refuse to vote for myself based on not only the first sentence of this post, but principle and pride. That really is a pathetic counterclaim.

last post for reallll, Rolled just annoyed me with his stupidity
Ph0X
1,043 posts
Joined March 2009
Ph0X
I smell a lot of appeal to emotion and false dilemma brewing in this thread.

I am keeping my vote on Two, and am FoS'ing foul.
Rolled
osu! Alumni
1,886 posts
Joined January 2008
Rolled
Reason for FoSing foul?

You have to understand, ph0x, it's easy to miss things in your posts ;(
Ph0X
1,043 posts
Joined March 2009
Ph0X

Rolled wrote:

You have to understand, ph0x, it's easy to miss things in your posts ;(
I believe Two is mafia, and foul is his buddy assisting in his plan.
Ph0X
1,043 posts
Joined March 2009
Ph0X

Ph0X wrote:

Rolled wrote:

You have to understand, ph0x, it's easy to miss things in your posts ;(
I believe Two is mafia, and foul is his buddy assisting in his plan.
At least, that's what I find most likely right now.

I already mentioned a Two-foul association early day 2, which supports my theory.
Two_old
620 posts
Joined March 2008
Two_old
I liedd, I guess I want to win bad enough to post again

here is what is most likely: rust45 Lilac and ph0x are mafia

why? role distribution: town has 3 aux+2masons (bus driver sensor cop)

rust45 roleclaiming makes no sense if it's just him and Lilac, since buying a day doesn't do anything -- unless all you need is a day because there are 3 mafia left

it literally makes 0 sense to lynch me over Lilac, unless you are mafia (hi ph0x)
Two_old
620 posts
Joined March 2008
Two_old
oh, unvote, vote: Lilac
Ph0X
1,043 posts
Joined March 2009
Ph0X

Two wrote:

it literally makes 0 sense to lynch me over Lilac, unless you are mafia (hi ph0x)
From the facts we have, what distinguishes you from Lilac?
Two_old
620 posts
Joined March 2008
Two_old

Ph0X wrote:

From the facts we have, what distinguishes you from Lilac?
2 mafia voted for quaraezha
rolled is generally considered not mafia
rust and I roleclaimed the same role
Lilac is the only one left

IF there are 3 mafia, it would make no sense to gamble by voting for one of the roleclaimed cops (since one is definitely town, or do you dispute even that?), and instead it would make sense to vote for Lilac and compare aux information day 3
Sleep Powder
1,540 posts
Joined October 2008
Sleep Powder
I do find it a bit odd that Ph0X would agree with my emotional response scum-tell.

I would expect something a bit more to reinforce his ideas. (Sort of meta-gaming...)

FoS Ph0X

@Two, we have a confirmed Bus Driver, but no actual confirmed sensor. (Did foulcoon roleclaim sensor yet?)

rust45 claims that he is the actual cop and not you.

Also, you shouldn't lie. If rust45 claims as the cop and you say its a lie, that can only mean that you are mafia or are
just hiding something in general.

Rolled's unvote (could say) that he is actually a townie and believed Two wasn't mafia, but
is now unsure because of rust45's roleclaim. Then again, this could be a setup by Rolled and rust45
to make Two look guiltier.

Now, I'm just throwing random ideas out there...
Two_old
620 posts
Joined March 2008
Two_old

animask wrote:

Also, you shouldn't lie. If rust45 claims as the cop and you say its a lie, that can only mean that you are mafia or are
just hiding something in general.
foulcoon isn't allowed to claim obviously

and please animask, I beg you to understand this one thing if nothing else: rust45 claimed cop in order to buy the 1 day that his team of 3 mafia needs to win the game
rust45
1,085 posts
Joined May 2009
rust45
You seem so sure of yourself that there are three mafia, while this cannot be true at all. Considering in the OP of the game, LS said that the setup for the game will resemble one from this topic with a few other roles added. I honestly don't think LS would consider a three mafia setup to resemble one of those setups which are all two mafia setups. I honestly don't get where you got the idea that there were three mafia, sounds like you're trying to come up with crazy theories to try to get people off your back.
Two_old
620 posts
Joined March 2008
Two_old
We already know for a fact that our role setup doesn't resemble anything from that topic. Yet another weak post. Here is my full theory:

Two:cop 1
foulcoon:sensor 2
quaraezha:mason 3
animask:mason \\ ph0x:mason (yeah right rofl) 4
chris: bus driver 5
rust45: mafia 6
Lilac: mafia 7
ph0x: mafia \\ animask:mafia (yeah right rofl) 8

but then we get to rolled, the 9th player, which we can then conclude two things (if the rest is right):

1. rolled isn't mason
2. rolled is either the sole vanilla town, or he is aux as well

since I find it unlikely that rolled is the sole vanilla town, and since this game is called "experimental mafia", I think the experiment was this: there is no vanilla town

so are you aux rolled? that would confirm my theory, but even if he isn't we can still assume that he is the sole vanilla and that 3 aux + 2 masons are overpowered enough for there to be 3 mafia
Two_old
620 posts
Joined March 2008
Two_old
I'd like to thank rust45 for allowing me to flesh all of this out. Without him I wouldn't have realized there were 3 mafia, and without him I wouldn't have confirmed animask's innocence. Thanks bud.
Ph0X
1,043 posts
Joined March 2009
Ph0X
So your conclusion, Two, is that rust is mafia, I am mafia, and either Rolled or Lilac are mafia?
Two_old
620 posts
Joined March 2008
Two_old
Nope, rust confirmed that Rolled is town. Thanks for that too.
Ph0X
1,043 posts
Joined March 2009
Ph0X

Two wrote:

Nope, rust confirmed that Rolled is town. Thanks for that too.
So who are the three mafia?
Two_old
620 posts
Joined March 2008
Two_old
please don't try to play games

you lose
Ph0X
1,043 posts
Joined March 2009
Ph0X

Two wrote:

please don't try to play games

you lose
Why bother proposing scenarios and ideas if you won't answer questions about them?
Two_old
620 posts
Joined March 2008
Two_old
because we both know that I already answered the question in the post you are asking the question about

since I realize that there has been communication problems in this game, though, I'll bite:

for the 3rd or 4th time, ph0x, Lilac, and rust45 are the mafia in this game
Ph0X
1,043 posts
Joined March 2009
Ph0X

Two wrote:

for the 3rd or 4th time, ph0x, Lilac, and rust45 are the mafia in this game
Well, you're wrong.
Two_old
620 posts
Joined March 2008
Two_old

Ph0X wrote:

Well, you're wrong.
SPOILER
Ph0X
1,043 posts
Joined March 2009
Ph0X
... but you already knew you are wrong anyway.
Two_old
620 posts
Joined March 2008
Two_old
foulcoon has lurked, rolled has lurked, animask has lurked

we only had 4 days left to do something 2 days ago

whether you choose to win or lose, do something please
foulcoon
osu! Alumni
1,384 posts
Joined July 2008
foulcoon
I really need to see what Rolled has to say before I make a decision.
Rolled
osu! Alumni
1,886 posts
Joined January 2008
Rolled
Fuck if I know bro. Obviously either Two or Rust is mafia. Given that maaaaaybe there is actually 3 mafia, which is retarded, I guess that makes Lilac the safest day 2 lynch? I'm hung over right now and I just woke up, just giving a bit of input as you requested.
foulcoon
osu! Alumni
1,384 posts
Joined July 2008
foulcoon
Are you saying you aren't aux then?
Rolled
osu! Alumni
1,886 posts
Joined January 2008
Rolled
Well truthfully, I discovered that my role does have a special ability that I wasn't fully aware of until the middle of Day 2. Up until then, I was under the impression that I was just a mere vanilla.

LAL, etc. I'm asking you to trust that I fully wasn't aware up until recently. Give me until Day 3 and I'll be able to prove it.

That said, it is likely that there is no Vanilla Town amongst us, possibly giving some support to the 3 mafia theory (which I still feel is broken)

Rolled wrote:

as I've been an absolute terrible town player
Two_old
620 posts
Joined March 2008
Two_old

Rolled wrote:

as I've been an absolute terrible town player
yes you have been

Rolled wrote:

Well truthfully, I discovered that my role does have a special ability
ok cool you realize that confirms my role list right? the only other possibility is: rust45, foulcoon, ph0x as mafia

because of that, the safest lynch from my perspective is rust45, followed by ph0x

I'm still willing to vote for Lilac though since it is the most likely combination
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