Hmm... I can see that (not that I entirely believe that view myself). Thanks for your input.foulcoon wrote:
Namely, his idea of these "scum tells" for Rolled seem like hes grasping.
forum
Experimental Mafia (Game Over - Town Win Host Lose)
posted
Total Posts
410
Vote: Quaraezha
Annnnnd... *sleep*
Annnnnd... *sleep*
Just came back @_@ I don't keep a note really, but I'll write some thoughts of each playersPh0X wrote:
bmin, if you have time, can you post your thoughts of each player?
Two: I'm not really a fan of his attitude, but that's just my personal issue. His thoughts seem to be clear, but his posts aren't really providing much reasonings to back up. I bet he could come up with some reasonings, but he just ends up with a short post :<... neutral for me
animask: Another act with his recklessness. Still bit choppy with his ideas and to rounding his reasonings up, but he is getting better (less annoying). I once wanted to lynch him, but my gut is reading town. I agree that he wouldn't be so aggressive (+ reckless) if he was mafia. Town to me
foulcoon: Nothing much to go on. He came up with a suspicion for rust45 which I'm following with (more on rust45 paragraph). I guess I'll have to put DxS on this side as well. DxS voting for Chris wasn't really strong enough to have him on my suspicion list and he soon gave up his vote. This was taken as a scumtell by someone (I should recheck), but again, his vote was almost a RV for him and I'm not really concerned with unvoting RVs. Quiting during the game isn't really a scumtell for me, but if he turns out to be mafia, I wouldn't respect his choice then.
Ph0X: I'll usually put his post into my account since most sounds reasonable to me. He's style of defence was taken as a scumtell (not providing much but covering with being sarcastic) and I have nothing much to say. Lots of people use sarcasm and it really isn't that helpfull for me to have a suspicion or not. Neutral for me
rust45: His way of defending arks me. He used his playing style to defence (which I don't buy it at all) and accused Q for the same reason (which I found it ironic). You guys both have a similar playing style and really, accusing for Q's lurkiness is the same as accusing for yourself. What makes you different from Q? You should rather try to convince that you are a town. FoS
Q: Be more active. Actually, playing in all mafia games is ridiculous :<... You also have a meta history of being guilty whenever you lurked. I wouldn't lynch you yet since accusing for lurking isn't a strong reasoning, but if we have a chance to have a public lynch, you will be my wish list. Neutral and this will lean towards mafia on this rate.
Rolled: Current hand of the game. He made most players to post by accusing. I'm getting pro-town since I think mafia wouldn't be this aggressive on scum hunting.
Chris: seems to be very confident foulcoon is mafia. Nothing much to say since he stopped posting after DxS was replaced by foulcoon.
I would vote for rust45, but I found it would be impossible with the vote split we are having right now... Since I think animask is townie, I'll vote Q. This will be a public lynch for me atleast.
keep in mind you have like 7 hours to vote
if you aren't going to be here between now and then, vote now pls
if you aren't going to be here between now and then, vote now pls
Why?Two wrote:
if you aren't going to be here between now and then, vote now pls
I'll explain my reasoning as to why I believe Foulcoon (DxS) was mafia.
After all of this, he decided to not post for two days. I asked LadySuburu to prod him to make him post, and he responded with..
After calling him on it, he posted.
DeathxShingami: The fact that you're pointing it out actually disturbs me for some reason.
Had nothing to do with what I said, didn't give a reason, nothing. Just stalling and trying to pretend to be active.
He had time to make two posts but no time to defend himself.
After that, DeathxShinigami quit the game.
Trying to get the "we're all friends so vote the other guy out" bandwagon starting. A vote based on something that has nothing to do with the game with his very first post.DeathxShinigami wrote:
Vote: Chris
A friend of two's who has actually been known to be a carpetbagger in this community. Do I trust the words of a person who knows nothing about this community? Probably no.
He implied that I was a random person, though I've played WWG's with the community before, including him. I asked him a perfectly legitimate question and he avoided it, and then unvoted immediately after when he knew he couldn't respond.DeathxShinigami wrote:
Still a believer in a community based game not a game where we get to drag random people who aren't even involved in this osu! community whatsoever.
On top of that, he tried to paint myself/Two/Rolled as a team when he just tried to get me bandwagon'd out for NOT being apart of the circle of friends that play these games regularly. I don't understand the logic.DeathxShinigami wrote:
Have a feeling it'll just be Rolled/Two/Chris vs. everyone else
Whee, can't be that hard to lynch people now isn't it?
After all of this, he decided to not post for two days. I asked LadySuburu to prod him to make him post, and he responded with..
He had time to post that, but not post a constructive reply even after posting TWICE on the other mafia game in the same time span he was ignoring this one. Makes no sense to me at all.DeathxShinigami wrote:
I got prodded. I am posting.
Currently getting off work atm.
So I shall post more later tonight...
After calling him on it, he posted.
DeathxShingami: The fact that you're pointing it out actually disturbs me for some reason.
Had nothing to do with what I said, didn't give a reason, nothing. Just stalling and trying to pretend to be active.
He had time to make two posts but no time to defend himself.
After that, DeathxShinigami quit the game.
Topic Starter
At the end of the day, you decided Q was being pretty much useless. Obviously, he was jealous of the crappy amazing stories written for these games, since he couldn't write any better.
You tie him up, and place him under the nearest tree.
You grab an axe, and start chopping away at the tree.
"I'm Innocent I tell you! I was just busy! Where's my mason friend!? Help me out he---"
The axe head flies off, decapitating Q.
Quaraezha - Townie Mason - Lynched D1
It is now Night 1. Please send all Night actions within 24 hours.
You tie him up, and place him under the nearest tree.
You grab an axe, and start chopping away at the tree.
"I'm Innocent I tell you! I was just busy! Where's my mason friend!? Help me out he---"
The axe head flies off, decapitating Q.
Quaraezha - Townie Mason - Lynched D1
It is now Night 1. Please send all Night actions within 24 hours.
Topic Starter
In the morning, you find Chris's body lying in the streets.
Chris - Bus Driver - Town - Killed Night 1
It is now day 2.
With 7 alive, it's 4 to lynch. Deadline is 4 days.
Chris - Bus Driver - Town - Killed Night 1
It is now day 2.
With 7 alive, it's 4 to lynch. Deadline is 4 days.
@Chris, this must be how adam feels when he can't understand me. I have no idea what you are saying...
Except for that last bit... Many things could've been the result of him quiting. He probably didn't know what to say
back thinking it wasn't a big deal anyways.
Hmm, you got NK'd. Nevermind then...
Also, I had a feeling Quy was a townie this time...
Now who would want to NK Chris...?
Except for that last bit... Many things could've been the result of him quiting. He probably didn't know what to say
back thinking it wasn't a big deal anyways.
Hmm, you got NK'd. Nevermind then...
Also, I had a feeling Quy was a townie this time...
Now who would want to NK Chris...?
http://wikiguides.neoseeker.com/wiki/Th ... Bus_Driver
K so first of all I think we can all agree that it makes no sense for chris to have died night 1. He was like... the most easily lynchable target behind quaraezha. So obviously he used his bus driver ability on the person who would have been night killed, and that person was either me or rolled since he hates you all.
So now we have to figure out who he swapped with. Here is who would night kill rolled:
Two
Ph0x
rust45
bmin11
Here is who would night kill me:
Rolled
Ph0x
rust45 (at the behest of ph0x or rolled)
bmin11 (at the behest of ph0x or rolled)
animask (at the behest of ph0x or rolled)
sry but none of you are that smart
Since my list is effectively narrowed down to two people (they both aren't mafia), let's look at the reasons they might have to lynch me:
1. I'm awesome
2. I'm intuitive
that's serious but let's focus on Rolled:
1. I always suspect him more than anyone else regardless of his role and he knows it
2. Voting in line with him yesterday could have made him think I was trying to make him not kill me (it was also semi out of character for me)(thinks I'm aux)
3:
4. I've just been playing in a way that isn't the same as the way I would have played a civilian a year ago (thinks I'm aux)
1b. Rolled has gone for me in every game we've played together where he's been mafia/wolf, so why would he make a mistake like going after me? I used that as a reason to lynch him last time.
now for Ph0x:
1. Also would notice that I've just been playing in a way that isn't the same as the way I would have played a civilian a year ago (thinks I'm aux)
2. I've straight up called him mafia more than once this game and voted for him (it's worth noting that this was early on in the game, so it wouldn't cast suspicion on him ordinarily)
3. before the end of day 1:
another reason I might have been the target:
What reasons do ph0x, rust45, and bmin11 have for night killing rolled?
Ph0x:
1. ph0x would have much more control of day phase
2. actually as I was writing this I realized that since he's spent so much time replying to rolled, it would hurt him to night kill rolled for two reasons: 1. all of that work going towards getting that material to use against him would be wasted, 2. it could have made Ph0x look more suspicious (in Ph0x's eyes)
rust45:
1. d'uhhhhhh rolled talks a lot
bmin11:
1. d'uhhhhhh rolled talks a lot (ilu still ㅇㅅㅇb)
It's pretty obvious to me that I was chosen to be night killed. I don't know if it was rolled or ph0x, but ph0x's end-of-day paragraph that I quoted is so ridiculously mafia-like that it blows rolled out of the water, and I'm voting for ph0x
K so first of all I think we can all agree that it makes no sense for chris to have died night 1. He was like... the most easily lynchable target behind quaraezha. So obviously he used his bus driver ability on the person who would have been night killed, and that person was either me or rolled since he hates you all.
So now we have to figure out who he swapped with. Here is who would night kill rolled:
Ph0x
rust45
bmin11
Here is who would night kill me:
Rolled
Ph0x
rust45 (at the behest of ph0x or rolled)
bmin11 (at the behest of ph0x or rolled)
animask (at the behest of ph0x or rolled)
sry but none of you are that smart
Since my list is effectively narrowed down to two people (they both aren't mafia), let's look at the reasons they might have to lynch me:
1. I'm awesome
2. I'm intuitive
that's serious but let's focus on Rolled:
1. I always suspect him more than anyone else regardless of his role and he knows it
2. Voting in line with him yesterday could have made him think I was trying to make him not kill me (it was also semi out of character for me)(thinks I'm aux)
3:
just because I didn't outright go against anything he said, trying to give everyone (including me) a false sense of comradery between the two of usRolled wrote:
Two: I feel that Two is trusting me more in this game than in the past (lolmeta).
4. I've just been playing in a way that isn't the same as the way I would have played a civilian a year ago (thinks I'm aux)
1b. Rolled has gone for me in every game we've played together where he's been mafia/wolf, so why would he make a mistake like going after me? I used that as a reason to lynch him last time.
now for Ph0x:
1. Also would notice that I've just been playing in a way that isn't the same as the way I would have played a civilian a year ago (thinks I'm aux)
2. I've straight up called him mafia more than once this game and voted for him (it's worth noting that this was early on in the game, so it wouldn't cast suspicion on him ordinarily)
3. before the end of day 1:
I don't know how many of you can appreciate how telling this paragraph is. Basically, though, he was building distance between us and and trying to do the same thing rolled did in his quote (make me less apprehensive towards him). He did it close enough towards night, and with a lot more subtlety than rolled. So much so that the two statements don't even compare.Ph0X wrote:
Two
This guy... He makes it so hard for me to read him. He comes up with good ideas, but doesn't really explain them (even though I understand the behind-the-scenes work of them for the most part). A real mystery player, because it's hard to read anything off of him because of this. I'm gonna ignore him for now...
another reason I might have been the target:
SPOILER
I'm getting night killed in every fucking game sdfsf
What reasons do ph0x, rust45, and bmin11 have for night killing rolled?
Ph0x:
1. ph0x would have much more control of day phase
2. actually as I was writing this I realized that since he's spent so much time replying to rolled, it would hurt him to night kill rolled for two reasons: 1. all of that work going towards getting that material to use against him would be wasted, 2. it could have made Ph0x look more suspicious (in Ph0x's eyes)
rust45:
1. d'uhhhhhh rolled talks a lot
bmin11:
1. d'uhhhhhh rolled talks a lot (ilu still ㅇㅅㅇb)
It's pretty obvious to me that I was chosen to be night killed. I don't know if it was rolled or ph0x, but ph0x's end-of-day paragraph that I quoted is so ridiculously mafia-like that it blows rolled out of the water, and I'm voting for ph0x
Cool, we have a fucking game now.
First of all Chris, whoever you did switch with was an absolute brilliant play. We couldn't possibly have any more information d2.
Everybody knows the three of us know each other, we've been painted as a team this entire game. Everybody also knows Chris would not be anywhere near the most beneficial NK target for mafia n1, thus he had to have used his ability.
Chris wouldn't switch with anyone other than myself or Two.
I'm going to cut my potential text-wall off here and just agree thoroughly with everything Two has to say, this paragraph in particular:
Vote: Ph0x
p.s.: FoS Animask.
First of all Chris, whoever you did switch with was an absolute brilliant play. We couldn't possibly have any more information d2.
Everybody knows the three of us know each other, we've been painted as a team this entire game. Everybody also knows Chris would not be anywhere near the most beneficial NK target for mafia n1, thus he had to have used his ability.
Chris wouldn't switch with anyone other than myself or Two.
I'm going to cut my potential text-wall off here and just agree thoroughly with everything Two has to say, this paragraph in particular:
Two is an easier nightkill target than I am, in general. He has a higher rate of success in these games than I do. Combine that with the fact that Ph0x has put in an effort to gather as much material from me as possible, and the fact that I have NKed Two as mafia n1 in the past, it is clear ph0x's intentions were NKing Two N1 and getting me lynched d2. While perhaps you can substitute ph0x's name with any other person in this game and the above paragraph would still make a little sense, however ph0x being mafia is the most likely scenario we have at hand here.Ph0x wrote:
Two
This guy... He makes it so hard for me to read him. He comes up with good ideas, but doesn't really explain them (even though I understand the behind-the-scenes work of them for the most part). A real mystery player, because it's hard to read anything off of him because of this. I'm gonna ignore him for now...
Vote: Ph0x
p.s.: FoS Animask.
Now who would want to NK Chris...?You know what Chris's ability consists of, and you know he used it. Intentional ignorance?
Sorry, I didn't know what the Bus Driver role did until Two posted.
There's a lot of metagaming going on right now and some of it exists
in this game, because I now see what Chris was doing.
Three of us = Two, Rolled and Chris/Ph0X (I must be a newbie or just not getting something.)
Now I should come up with some theories of my own... (when I think of some).
There's a lot of metagaming going on right now and some of it exists
in this game, because I now see what Chris was doing.
Three of us = Two, Rolled and Chris/Ph0X (I must be a newbie or just not getting something.)
Now I should come up with some theories of my own... (when I think of some).
I don't know animask. Maybe I'm wrong, but I thought you were the type that if you didn't know what a certain role did, you'd head straight to the wiki before potentially making an ignorant post such as your previous one.
And rather than needing to form your own theories, I'm interested in you elaborating on what you think of Two's. I feel it's very important, since you're one of the few people I have to suspect after ph0x.
Also I have no idea what you mean by this:
And rather than needing to form your own theories, I'm interested in you elaborating on what you think of Two's. I feel it's very important, since you're one of the few people I have to suspect after ph0x.
Also I have no idea what you mean by this:
animask wrote:
Three of us = Two, Rolled and Chris/Ph0X (I must be a newbie or just not getting something.)
Except me...Rolled wrote:
Everybody knows the three of us know each other...
Oh, then yeah. We've known each other for like 10 years now. People often hold it against us are say it's game breaking and stuff, but really all it ever does is make us over-analyze each other thus causing misreads.
I'd still like to hear your opinion to Two's theory.
I'd still like to hear your opinion to Two's theory.
Preferably before ph0x signs on.
@Two, first of all, how did you come up with the assumptions that those people would NK Rolled or you?
Meta-gaming with Rolled and Ph0X? I wonder how that's going to work...
Now that I think of it, Ph0X did seem different with his posts for almost no reason.
But I really don't understand what Two is trying to say here...
tl;dr version? (Break it down a bit for me?)
Meta-gaming with Rolled and Ph0X? I wonder how that's going to work...
Now that I think of it, Ph0X did seem different with his posts for almost no reason.
But I really don't understand what Two is trying to say here...
tl;dr version? (Break it down a bit for me?)
Let me analyze Two's post aloud, because it's a lot to take in and I want to be sure I didn't misinterpret everything.
Assumption: Chris targeted either Two or Rolled. Two makes this assumption because "he hates you all", which sounds absurd but is probably true. Still, let's analyze a few scenarios:
Scenario A: Chris thinks [player] is Mafia; Chris feels he is going to be targeted for a kill; Chris swaps himself and [player].
If this occured, the Mafia targeted [player], meaning Chris' guess was (likely) incorrect.
Scenario B: Chris feels he is going to be targeted for a kill, and thinks it's best to have himself die over another player; Chris does not use his ability.
If this occured, the Mafia targeted Chris himself.
Scenario C: Chris thinks [player] is Town; Chris feels he is NOT going to be targeted for a kill; Chris thinks [player] is going to be targeted for a kill, and thinks it's best to have himself die over [player]; Chris swaps himself and [player].
If this occured, the Mafia targeted [player], meaning Chris' guess was (likely) correct.
(I have a feeling I am missing another scenario, but I can't think of it. If someone figures it out, or concludes there are no other scenarios, I'd be grateful.)
To me, Scenario C looks most likely. I don't think Chris thought he would be targeted for a kill, and I don't think he felt that way, either; as Two said, he is a pretty lynchable player. More likely, Chris thought one of the "better" players (Rolled, Two, or myself, not to brag) would be targeted. It's even more likely that Chris would swap himself with a player he had emotional attachment to, so that leaves Rolled and Two, as Two concluded for assumption purposes.
I can take a guess to the former: animask was voting for Rolled day 1, and if animask had killed Rolled, animask wouldn't have a lead. Then again, that's WIFOM thinking, but I don't think Two thinks on those terms.
Anyway, what about foul? My guess? Freudian slip, and both Two and foul are mafia members. (If that's the case, note Scenario B above.)
Further assumption: Either Ph0X or Rolled is a mafia member.
I can see from where the first assumption comes, but I think the second assumption Two makes is a bit of a stretch. But sure, let's go with it.
Assumption: Rolled feels the critical pressure from Two.
Assumption: If Rolled is mafia, Rolled wants Two gone because Two could/would find Rolled out.
I think this line of thinking is solid, but it's based on a meta assumption, which to me is really weak.
Assumption: Rolled sees this friendliness as Two not wanting to be killed.
Assumption: Rolled equates Two not wanting to be killed with Two holding an aux role (town or mafia).
Assumption: If Rolled is mafia, Rolled wants Two gone because Rolled thinks Two holds an aux townie role.
Pretty straight forward. I don't really agree with it, though I did notice Two kinda being under the covers next to Rolled day 1. (I didn't remember Two's meta enough to make any assumptions based off of this, though, despite what Two thinks.)
Assumption: Rolled feels Two is trying to buddy with Rolled.
Assumption: Rolled feels buddying with Two would be negative for himself.
Assumption: If Rolled is mafia, Rolled wants Two gone because the buddying paints a bad picture for himself, leading to a more likely lynch of himself.
I'm unsure what to think of this train of thought. At first glance it looks fine and reasonable. I just don't see Rolled thinking that way, though.
Assumption: Two holds an aux role.
Assumption: If Rolled is mafia, Rolled wants Two gone because Rolled thinks Two holds an aux townie role.
Seems reasonable, if you are lead to believe that meta assumption enough. I certainly don't. A lot can change in a year, or even game-to-game. I don't (or try not to) factor gameplay style into my reasoning, so I don't buy what Two is saying here.
Also, this argument could be used against any player here (see below).
Meta assumption: Rolled always goes after Two if Rolled is mafia (and Two is not mafia).
Assumption: Rolled would not make the mistake of going after Two if Rolled is mafia.
WIFOM? Maybe that's what he wanted you to think, if he did try to kill you?
Assumption: Ph0X sees the difference in Two's play style as a sign that Two holds an aux role.
Assumption: If Ph0X is mafia, Ph0X wants Two gone because Ph0X thinks Two holds an aux townie role.
Yeah, not buying it. Same reasoning against Rolled; see my comments there.
Assumption: If Ph0X is mafia, Ph0X wants Two gone because Two might find Ph0X out.
Makes sense. WIFOM finds itself here quite easily, though, so the argument is nullified. (If you can't figure it out: what if, say, animask saw this an wanted to make the kill look like an OMGUS NK?)
Assumption: If Ph0X is mafia, Ph0X wants Two gone because ... why? Because there is no association (that the town can see) between Two and Ph0X (in Ph0X's eyes)?
It's not really clear to me what Two is getting at here. I tried to make sense of the logic, but I can't see it. Can you reiterate what would lead to a lynch?
Assumption: Two is the only alternative to Rolled as a nightkill target (see above).
Yeah, pretty much, if you still want to stick to the "Rolled and I are the only NK targets" assumption (which, as I said, is convincing).
---
Now for responses to accusations on myself, and other comments:
Player A has lots of reason to kill player X. Although you could say the same about player B, player A seems more likely because player A has lots of reason to kill player X.
Maybe I am missing something in your argument?
---
My personal thoughts? I'm entertaining that Two-foul pair I mentioned. I mean, if Two was a newbie, I'd definitely pounce on it. Since he isn't, it's not gonna lead to a vote, just something which is gonna stick in my head for a while.
I don't really enjoy analyzing kills unless they're very surprising (and I wouldn't call a busdriver kill surprising, honestly). All I see is WIFOM in such analyses for the most part (though I do admit some good can come from looking at nightkills).
I will reread things when I have enough time (maybe tomorrow?). I've already spend enough time writing this essay. ;P
Fact: Unless there is another manipulative role (not likely), either Chris or his target were swapped. If Chris' target was swapped, Chris must have used his night action on himself, too (duh).Two wrote:
K so first of all I think we can all agree that it makes no sense for chris to have died night 1. He was like... the most easily lynchable target behind quaraezha. So obviously he used his bus driver ability on the person who would have been night killed, and that person was either me or rolled since he hates you all.
Assumption: Chris targeted either Two or Rolled. Two makes this assumption because "he hates you all", which sounds absurd but is probably true. Still, let's analyze a few scenarios:
Scenario A: Chris thinks [player] is Mafia; Chris feels he is going to be targeted for a kill; Chris swaps himself and [player].
If this occured, the Mafia targeted [player], meaning Chris' guess was (likely) incorrect.
Scenario B: Chris feels he is going to be targeted for a kill, and thinks it's best to have himself die over another player; Chris does not use his ability.
If this occured, the Mafia targeted Chris himself.
Scenario C: Chris thinks [player] is Town; Chris feels he is NOT going to be targeted for a kill; Chris thinks [player] is going to be targeted for a kill, and thinks it's best to have himself die over [player]; Chris swaps himself and [player].
If this occured, the Mafia targeted [player], meaning Chris' guess was (likely) correct.
(I have a feeling I am missing another scenario, but I can't think of it. If someone figures it out, or concludes there are no other scenarios, I'd be grateful.)
To me, Scenario C looks most likely. I don't think Chris thought he would be targeted for a kill, and I don't think he felt that way, either; as Two said, he is a pretty lynchable player. More likely, Chris thought one of the "better" players (Rolled, Two, or myself, not to brag) would be targeted. It's even more likely that Chris would swap himself with a player he had emotional attachment to, so that leaves Rolled and Two, as Two concluded for assumption purposes.
What makes Two rule out animask for lynching Rolled? And what happened to foul?Two wrote:
So now we have to figure out who he swapped with. Here is who would night kill rolled:Two
Ph0x
rust45
bmin11
Here is who would night kill me:
Rolled
Ph0x
rust45 (at the behest of ph0x or rolled)
bmin11 (at the behest of ph0x or rolled)
animask (at the behest of ph0x or rolled)
sry but none of you are that smart
I can take a guess to the former: animask was voting for Rolled day 1, and if animask had killed Rolled, animask wouldn't have a lead. Then again, that's WIFOM thinking, but I don't think Two thinks on those terms.
Anyway, what about foul? My guess? Freudian slip, and both Two and foul are mafia members. (If that's the case, note Scenario B above.)
Assumption: One or zero of Ph0X and Rolled mafia members.Two wrote:
Since my list is effectively narrowed down to two people (they both aren't mafia)
Further assumption: Either Ph0X or Rolled is a mafia member.
I can see from where the first assumption comes, but I think the second assumption Two makes is a bit of a stretch. But sure, let's go with it.
Meta assumption: Two is more critical of Rolled than he is of other players (in general).Two wrote:
that's serious but let's focus on Rolled:
1. I always suspect him more than anyone else regardless of his role and he knows it
Assumption: Rolled feels the critical pressure from Two.
Assumption: If Rolled is mafia, Rolled wants Two gone because Two could/would find Rolled out.
I think this line of thinking is solid, but it's based on a meta assumption, which to me is really weak.
Assumption: Rolled feels Two is trying to be friendly with Rolled to not draw attention to himself, as to not be killed.Two wrote:
2. Voting in line with him yesterday could have made him think I was trying to make him not kill me (it was also semi out of character for me)(thinks I'm aux)
Assumption: Rolled sees this friendliness as Two not wanting to be killed.
Assumption: Rolled equates Two not wanting to be killed with Two holding an aux role (town or mafia).
Assumption: If Rolled is mafia, Rolled wants Two gone because Rolled thinks Two holds an aux townie role.
Pretty straight forward. I don't really agree with it, though I did notice Two kinda being under the covers next to Rolled day 1. (I didn't remember Two's meta enough to make any assumptions based off of this, though, despite what Two thinks.)
I don't know exactly what Two is thinking here, but here's my guess:Two wrote:
3:just because I didn't outright go against anything he said, trying to give everyone (including me) a false sense of comradery between the two of usRolled wrote:
Two: I feel that Two is trusting me more in this game than in the past (lolmeta).
Assumption: Rolled feels Two is trying to buddy with Rolled.
Assumption: Rolled feels buddying with Two would be negative for himself.
Assumption: If Rolled is mafia, Rolled wants Two gone because the buddying paints a bad picture for himself, leading to a more likely lynch of himself.
I'm unsure what to think of this train of thought. At first glance it looks fine and reasonable. I just don't see Rolled thinking that way, though.
Meta assumption: Two is acting differently than he does when he was town in other games.Two wrote:
4. I've just been playing in a way that isn't the same as the way I would have played a civilian a year ago (thinks I'm aux)
Assumption: Two holds an aux role.
Assumption: If Rolled is mafia, Rolled wants Two gone because Rolled thinks Two holds an aux townie role.
Seems reasonable, if you are lead to believe that meta assumption enough. I certainly don't. A lot can change in a year, or even game-to-game. I don't (or try not to) factor gameplay style into my reasoning, so I don't buy what Two is saying here.
Also, this argument could be used against any player here (see below).
Meta fact: Rolled has (often?) gone after Two in the past where Rolled is mafia.Two wrote:
1b. Rolled has gone for me in every game we've played together where he's been mafia/wolf, so why would he make a mistake like going after me? I used that as a reason to lynch him last time.
Meta assumption: Rolled always goes after Two if Rolled is mafia (and Two is not mafia).
Assumption: Rolled would not make the mistake of going after Two if Rolled is mafia.
WIFOM? Maybe that's what he wanted you to think, if he did try to kill you?
Meta assumption: Ph0X knows Two's play style of a townie from a year ago.Two wrote:
now for Ph0x:
1. Also would notice that I've just been playing in a way that isn't the same as the way I would have played a civilian a year ago (thinks I'm aux)
Assumption: Ph0X sees the difference in Two's play style as a sign that Two holds an aux role.
Assumption: If Ph0X is mafia, Ph0X wants Two gone because Ph0X thinks Two holds an aux townie role.
Yeah, not buying it. Same reasoning against Rolled; see my comments there.
Assumption: Ph0X felt pressured by Two by Two's vote against him on day 1.Two wrote:
2. I've straight up called him mafia more than once this game and voted for him (it's worth noting that this was early on in the game, so it wouldn't cast suspicion on him ordinarily)
Assumption: If Ph0X is mafia, Ph0X wants Two gone because Two might find Ph0X out.
Makes sense. WIFOM finds itself here quite easily, though, so the argument is nullified. (If you can't figure it out: what if, say, animask saw this an wanted to make the kill look like an OMGUS NK?)
Assumption: Ph0X tried to distance himself from Two with above quote.Two wrote:
3. before the end of day 1:I don't know how many of you can appreciate how telling this paragraph is. Basically, though, he was building distance between us and and trying to do the same thing rolled did in his quote (make me less apprehensive towards him). He did it close enough towards night, and with a lot more subtlety than rolled. So much so that the two statements don't even compare.Ph0X wrote:
Two
This guy... He makes it so hard for me to read him. He comes up with good ideas, but doesn't really explain them (even though I understand the behind-the-scenes work of them for the most part). A real mystery player, because it's hard to read anything off of him because of this. I'm gonna ignore him for now...
Assumption: If Ph0X is mafia, Ph0X wants Two gone because ... why? Because there is no association (that the town can see) between Two and Ph0X (in Ph0X's eyes)?
It's not really clear to me what Two is getting at here. I tried to make sense of the logic, but I can't see it. Can you reiterate what would lead to a lynch?
I think Two's comments here are pretty clear, so I won't rehash them.Two wrote:
What reasons do ph0x, rust45, and bmin11 have for night killing rolled?
Ph0x:
1. ph0x would have much more control of day phase
2. actually as I was writing this I realized that since he's spent so much time replying to rolled, it would hurt him to night kill rolled for two reasons: 1. all of that work going towards getting that material to use against him would be wasted, 2. it could have made Ph0x look more suspicious (in Ph0x's eyes)
rust45:
1. d'uhhhhhh rolled talks a lot
bmin11:
1. d'uhhhhhh rolled talks a lot (ilu still ㅇㅅㅇb)
Assumption: The (incomplete) list of reasons for players nightkilling Rolled proves that nightkilling Rolled would not be sensical.Two wrote:
It's pretty obvious to me that I was chosen to be night killed.
Assumption: Two is the only alternative to Rolled as a nightkill target (see above).
Yeah, pretty much, if you still want to stick to the "Rolled and I are the only NK targets" assumption (which, as I said, is convincing).
---
Now for responses to accusations on myself, and other comments:
No, I don't remember you meta very well (as stated earlier). All I remember is that you and Rolled are very aggressive players. As I also said above, I don't take play style into account when it comes to meta comparisons.Two wrote:
now for Ph0x:
1. Also would notice that I've just been playing in a way that isn't the same as the way I would have played a civilian a year ago (thinks I'm aux)
As I said, this is WIFOM.Two wrote:
2. I've straight up called him mafia more than once this game and voted for him (it's worth noting that this was early on in the game, so it wouldn't cast suspicion on him ordinarily)
I don't understand the reasoning behind this (as stated above); could you elaborate?Two wrote:
I don't know how many of you can appreciate how telling this paragraph is. Basically, though, he was building distance between us and and trying to do the same thing rolled did in his quote (make me less apprehensive towards him). He did it close enough towards night, and with a lot more subtlety than rolled. So much so that the two statements don't even compare.
While reading this, I was gonna comment "well, the same can be said for other players, too", but you ended stated that yourself. But ... then you give a non-reason at the end, so I just see circular reasoning. If you don't see it:Rolled wrote:
Combine that with the fact that Ph0x has put in an effort to gather as much material from me as possible, and the fact that I have NKed Two as mafia n1 in the past, it is clear ph0x's intentions were NKing Two N1 and getting me lynched d2. While perhaps you can substitute ph0x's name with any other person in this game and the above paragraph would still make a little sense, however ph0x being mafia is the most likely scenario we have at hand here.
Player A has lots of reason to kill player X. Although you could say the same about player B, player A seems more likely because player A has lots of reason to kill player X.
Maybe I am missing something in your argument?
---
My personal thoughts? I'm entertaining that Two-foul pair I mentioned. I mean, if Two was a newbie, I'd definitely pounce on it. Since he isn't, it's not gonna lead to a vote, just something which is gonna stick in my head for a while.
I don't really enjoy analyzing kills unless they're very surprising (and I wouldn't call a busdriver kill surprising, honestly). All I see is WIFOM in such analyses for the most part (though I do admit some good can come from looking at nightkills).
I will reread things when I have enough time (maybe tomorrow?). I've already spend enough time writing this essay. ;P
I will just say this, take it as fact if you want.
This is the current status of the game.
.::] Alive [::.
1. Two
2. animask
3. foulcoon
4. Ph0x
5. rust45
7. Rolled
8. bmin11
.::] Dead [::.
6. Quaraezha - Townie Mason - Lynched D1
9. Chris - Bus Driver (Town) - Killed N1
Assuming there are 2 mafia and 7 town (5 left now), these are the possible mafia (those who voted for Q):
bmin
Two
rust45
Rolled
I simply mean that I believe with good reason that myself, animask, and Ph0x are not mafia.
This is the current status of the game.
.::] Alive [::.
1. Two
2. animask
3. foulcoon
4. Ph0x
5. rust45
7. Rolled
8. bmin11
.::] Dead [::.
6. Quaraezha - Townie Mason - Lynched D1
9. Chris - Bus Driver (Town) - Killed N1
Assuming there are 2 mafia and 7 town (5 left now), these are the possible mafia (those who voted for Q):
bmin
Two
rust45
Rolled
I simply mean that I believe with good reason that myself, animask, and Ph0x are not mafia.
Are you seriously suggesting both mafia members voted for Q, foulcoon? At most there was one. In fact, Q was such an easy lynch that it wouldn't surprise me if neither voted for him.
IMO, in order of most likely:
1 Mafia voted for Q; No mafia voted for Q; both mafia voted for Q.
Now assuming Chris didn't bite the bullet for Two, you intended to paint me as the player with the most to gain from NKing Two using meta and probably some other things I've said in this game thus far. You have made quite an effort to speak to me, thus you have more information on me to scumpaint, thus I would be an easier lynch target than Two would have been. You wouldn't need to waste a NK. And as you've said, you, two, and myself are some of the more influential players in this game (again, not to brag. meta.) It would be a cake walk for you as mafia if we were both eliminated early. Combine that with the fact that you were one of the two mafia that did not vote for Q D1, you'd look very pro-town to untrained eyes.
Circling back to foulcoon, you have no possible way to be certain both ph0x and animask are town at this point in time. At best you'd know one, and even if you happen to be a cop there's always the possibility you're paranoid (keep in mind, this is experimental.)
IMO, in order of most likely:
1 Mafia voted for Q; No mafia voted for Q; both mafia voted for Q.
With the entire way that you've played this game, it's easiest to believe that you are the player with the most to benefit from Two's lynching. You have not spent much time talking to him (D1), while you've made an effort to talk to every other player in the game thus far. In fact, you express your inability to read Two publicly. Whether it was truthful or not, I think it was still a slip up.Ph0x wrote:
Maybe I am missing something in your argument?
Now assuming Chris didn't bite the bullet for Two, you intended to paint me as the player with the most to gain from NKing Two using meta and probably some other things I've said in this game thus far. You have made quite an effort to speak to me, thus you have more information on me to scumpaint, thus I would be an easier lynch target than Two would have been. You wouldn't need to waste a NK. And as you've said, you, two, and myself are some of the more influential players in this game (again, not to brag. meta.) It would be a cake walk for you as mafia if we were both eliminated early. Combine that with the fact that you were one of the two mafia that did not vote for Q D1, you'd look very pro-town to untrained eyes.
Circling back to foulcoon, you have no possible way to be certain both ph0x and animask are town at this point in time. At best you'd know one, and even if you happen to be a cop there's always the possibility you're paranoid (keep in mind, this is experimental.)
Also I'd like to add that I find it very disturbing animask never found the time to answer my question before ph0x managed to respond to Two. While perhaps animask may not have been able to come up with a solid defense for ph0x (assuming they're both mafia), I'm certain that he'd at least be able to comprehend Two's post enough to not require a TLDR version. It's easy to expand off of ph0x's thought process now as animask the mafia goon.
Assuming there are only 2 mafia I am certain that both animask and Ph0X are town. If there are more than 2 mafia I may be mistaken.
That being said, yes I am suggesting that both mafia members voted for Q (if there are only 2). The fact that you make the assumption that only one mafia member voted for Q makes it seem like you're really grasping to avoid suspicion. There is no way that you could possibly know only 1 mafia member voted for Q, unless of course you were mafia.
You are either desperate mafia or being really bad at town imo.
FoS: Rolled
That being said, yes I am suggesting that both mafia members voted for Q (if there are only 2). The fact that you make the assumption that only one mafia member voted for Q makes it seem like you're really grasping to avoid suspicion. There is no way that you could possibly know only 1 mafia member voted for Q, unless of course you were mafia.
You are either desperate mafia or being really bad at town imo.
FoS: Rolled
I'm speaking only on common sense. Why would both mafia members associate themselves with a lynching that they know will be town?
I don't know, you tell me.
No, explain your logic. I've explained mine.
Also, I firmly believe that you're wrong about your ph0x and animask claims.
Also, I firmly believe that you're wrong about your ph0x and animask claims.
Heres my logic.
I know that 2 mafia voted for lynching Q.
I know that 2 mafia voted for lynching Q.
Okay foulcoon here we go.
You are obviously Mason. Let me tell you exactly how the game has played thus far.
-DxS gets placed under heat.
-He's like it's okay, at least my mason partner will come to my rescue.
-Q says this:
-Chris continues to be a jackass and OMGUS's the shit out of DxS
-DxS is like fuck this game, fuck my partner(s), i'm out.
Now we know for a fact Q was a mason. Let's go back to the vote list.
Q (4): Rolled, Two, Rust, Bmin
We can safely assume none of those four are Mason.
Now I have not ISO'd the other members like I should, but one particular post sticks out from the top of my head. That is you directly defending Q:
1.) All FOUR of you are Mason, and you are misinformed of your role.
2.) Three of you are Mason, and you also have Cop as your auxiliary role.
There is no other way that you can be 100% certain that the three of you are town.
Now, when I say that you are misinformed of your role, let me elaborate. Refer back to your Role PM please.
Now, once you realize that your PM does not state that all of the Mason are pro-town, you may then apologize to me ^____^
Also, after re-reading this whole thing, I realized there is a chance of Foulcoon being the Mafia-Mason, and the others are both town. I find this unlikely (see my above posts), and it directly goes against my gut feeling.
Any time you're ready foulcoon, I'd like that apology bro. And take that fucking FoS off of me.
You are obviously Mason. Let me tell you exactly how the game has played thus far.
-DxS gets placed under heat.
-He's like it's okay, at least my mason partner will come to my rescue.
-Q says this:
-The sad attempt at defending DxS gets ignored, as it had no structure behind it (like any other Q post)Quaraezha wrote:
I don't honestly think DxS is mafia too actually.
-Chris continues to be a jackass and OMGUS's the shit out of DxS
-DxS is like fuck this game, fuck my partner(s), i'm out.
Now we know for a fact Q was a mason. Let's go back to the vote list.
Q (4): Rolled, Two, Rust, Bmin
We can safely assume none of those four are Mason.
Now I have not ISO'd the other members like I should, but one particular post sticks out from the top of my head. That is you directly defending Q:
So all of that said, I concluded that you were Mason as well. I didn't make it public until now, but that was because I didn't feel it was too beneficial for the town to do so. But now with the new information you're bringing me, I feel it is a must.Foulcoon wrote:
As for the bandwagon starting against Q, I don't really feel that its justified, but I can kind of understand the reasoning.
Foulcoon wrote:
I simply mean that I believe with good reason that myself, animask, and Ph0x are not mafia.
So now, we have two possibilities here.Foulcoon wrote:
Assuming there are only 2 mafia I am certain that both animask and Ph0X are town
1.) All FOUR of you are Mason, and you are misinformed of your role.
2.) Three of you are Mason, and you also have Cop as your auxiliary role.
There is no other way that you can be 100% certain that the three of you are town.
Now, when I say that you are misinformed of your role, let me elaborate. Refer back to your Role PM please.
This is probably all you are aware of. Let me make this perfectly clear, however:MafiaWiki wrote:
Masons are a group, usually all on the Pro-Town side, that usually have some information about each others alignement. They can communicate with each other at Night, if they choose, but otherwise usually have no special abilities. In one variation of the Mason role, the Masons cannot reveal that they are Masons to the town through roleclaiming. Instead, they must find other ways to defend each other.
That said, Does your role PM specifically mention all of the Masons are pro-town? Don't answer this publicly, as it will result in your modkill (assuming you can't publicize the fact that you are Mason) but please ask yourself the question.MafiaWiki wrote:
Sometimes, one member of the masonry group is a scum mason, a person in the masonry who is secretly part of the mafia or some other scum group. This occasionally happens in games where the moderater does not specifically tell all masons that they are all town. (See: unconfirmed masons, sometimes called "Neighbors")
Now, once you realize that your PM does not state that all of the Mason are pro-town, you may then apologize to me ^____^
Also, after re-reading this whole thing, I realized there is a chance of Foulcoon being the Mafia-Mason, and the others are both town. I find this unlikely (see my above posts), and it directly goes against my gut feeling.
Any time you're ready foulcoon, I'd like that apology bro. And take that fucking FoS off of me.
Rolled, out.
I would like to think that perhaps DxS was the mason, but when i replaced him I was given another role with the same alignment?
Also, my role PM doesn't say anything about masons at all.
Also, my role PM doesn't say anything about masons at all.
I don't think the mason needs to deliberately claim non-mason? They just can't outright claim Mason.
Stop causing confusion to the town please. I doubt that you were given a different role with the same alignment.
Mod: Is it possible that you can shed some light on this? I understand you can't fully prove foulcoon to be lying or truthful, but can you perhaps show us what the Mason Townie's PM (Q's) looked like?
Stop causing confusion to the town please. I doubt that you were given a different role with the same alignment.
Mod: Is it possible that you can shed some light on this? I understand you can't fully prove foulcoon to be lying or truthful, but can you perhaps show us what the Mason Townie's PM (Q's) looked like?
We did not share Mason PMs to the modsRolled wrote:
Mod: Is it possible that you can shed some light on this? I understand you can't fully prove foulcoon to be lying or truthful, but can you perhaps show us what the Mason Townie's PM (Q's) looked like?
I mean the townie mason's actual role PM o-o
oh, derp.
Carry on.
Carry on.
Yeah. I had deep conversations with Q, Chris, and DxS.Rolled wrote:
With the entire way that you've played this game, it's easiest to believe that you are the player with the most to benefit from Two's lynching. You have not spent much time talking to him (D1), while you've made an effort to talk to every other player in the game thus far.
A slip-up of what? I don't understand why my comment seems so scummy.Rolled wrote:
In fact, you express your inability to read Two publicly. Whether it was truthful or not, I think it was still a slip up.
Yeah. Because I totally use metas I barely remember. And, as my meta shows clearly, I totally base my arguments on nightkills.Rolled wrote:
Now assuming Chris didn't bite the bullet for Two, you intended to paint me as the player with the most to gain from NKing Two using meta and probably some other things I've said in this game thus far.
You see, maybe you'll understand WIFOM this time:
What if you (or some other player) wanted people to think that way?
"Ph0X has the most to gain from the deaths of Two and Rolled. Therefore, I, as a mafia member, knowing Ph0X is not mafia, will try to make the town think Ph0X NK'd Two or Rolled so the town lynches him!"
In addition:
"I, Ph0X, as a mafia member, realize that I can say, simply, 'what if someone else wanted you to think that I was mafia trying to kill certain players because I'd best gain from their deaths'. I'd be off the hook then!"
Do you see the problem with this type of argument?
All that information is public. Anyone could use the same information to do the same thing, if they so wanted.Rolled wrote:
You have made quite an effort to speak to me, thus you have more information on me to scumpaint, thus I would be an easier lynch target than Two would have been. You wouldn't need to waste a NK.
See my comment about WIFOM above. You're stating the same argument with different words, making it sound like you have a larger argument against me.Rolled wrote:
And as you've said, you, two, and myself are some of the more influential players in this game (again, not to brag. meta.) It would be a cake walk for you as mafia if we were both eliminated early.
Why did you want animask to post before me?Rolled wrote:
Also I'd like to add that I find it very disturbing animask never found the time to answer my question before ph0x managed to respond to Two.
From what I see, your FoS on animask is based on animask's ignorance of the busdriver role; it doesn't have any argumentative standing. What makes you think animask is a mafia member?
You overestimate animask. When he reads something he doesn't understand, he doesn't try to re-read it and comprehend it. He's a new player and needs hand-holding most of the time. (I like to help any player, regardless of orientation (see what I did there? ;P), so don't even think about pinning me on that.)Rolled wrote:
... I'm certain that he'd at least be able to comprehend Two's post enough to not require a TLDR version.
My post regarding Two's post wasn't my thought process, necessarily. It was Two's thought process, but written in such a way that was, to me, more clear. I could better comprehend Two's analysis rewriting it in the way I did. I did add a few of my own comments inline, but those were intended to be inquisitory (I am a Shakespeare) because I wasn't sure I understood Two's points exactly. (Maybe a few counterarguments slipped by, but I can't change that now.) I wanted to be sure I was interpreting Two correctly.Rolled wrote:
It's easy to expand off of ph0x's thought process now as animask the mafia goon.
I think you misunderstood what Rolled said. Re-read what he wrote before he commented about me.foulcoon wrote:
The fact that you make the assumption that only one mafia member voted for Q makes it seem like you're really grasping to avoid suspicion.
Minor WIFOM? "Oh, no one will think both mafia would be so stupid as to jump on such an easy bandwagon! Hey buddy, let's hop on!"Rolled wrote:
I'm speaking only on common sense. Why would both mafia members associate themselves with a lynching that they know will be town?
I like how your tunnel vision caused you to completely disregard everything foul has actually said. Let's look at this one post at a time (for all posts on justRolled wrote:
Stop causing confusion to the town please.
No facts can be drawn from this statement.foulcoon wrote:
I simply mean that I believe with good reason that myself, animask, and Ph0x are not mafia.
If foul is mafia, he is telling the truth if animask is town. (Of course, most readers can't have the same conclusion.)foulcoon wrote:
Assuming there are only 2 mafia I am certain that both animask and Ph0X are town. If there are more than 2 mafia I may be mistaken.
If foul is town, foul knows that:
If there are two mafia members, they are not animask, Ph0X, or himself; therefore, two of bmin, Rolled, rust, and Two are mafia.
If there are more than two mafia members, he may be "mistaken", meaning animask and himself are not excluded from being mafia.
From this, I can assume that if foul is town, at least two mafia members voted for Q.
From this, I cannot assume that if foul is town, animask and Ph0X are town.
If foul is neutral, similar conclusions can be drawn as if foul is town, with some modifications I won't bother going into now (as I don't think there are neutral players in this game).
This confirms the assumption above: "at least two mafia members voted for Q".foulcoon wrote:
I know that 2 mafia voted for lynching Q.
Now, how does "I know that 2 mafia voted for lynching Q." equate exactly to "I know animask and Ph0X are town"? You base your suspicion of foul being a mason on the latter, yet you're building your argument on straws (and non-tasty non-kawaii anime straws at that).
... Funny how Q starts talking only after he's dead.
Prod: rust, bmin
Also to MOD: If player x claims publicly player y is Mason, must player y deny it (assuming player x is correct) or be subject to modkill?
Haven't even bothered to read ph0x's wall. I'm going to get a night's sleep before I attempt to.
Haven't even bothered to read ph0x's wall. I'm going to get a night's sleep before I attempt to.
Just gonna point out things that peak my interest at the moment, I'm taking this all into consideration but I need to take time to comprehend it all first(especially since Ph0x likes to write novels).
Anyway, that's all I have to say for now, I must look over all the current walls over again.
I don't understand the logic behind this, why would you get a role change as a replacement? I would change the game balance.foulcoon wrote:
I would like to think that perhaps DxS was the mason, but when i replaced him I was given another role with the same alignment?
Why are talking like the variation of mason where they can't roleclaim is in this game? The only way you could know that masons couldn't roleclaim is if you were a mason.Rolled wrote:
Also to MOD: If player x claims publicly player y is Mason, must player y deny it (assuming player x is correct) or be subject to modkill?
Anyway, that's all I have to say for now, I must look over all the current walls over again.
Masons can never roleclaim Mason AFAIK, regardless of the variation.
Topic Starter
Rolled wrote:
Mod: Is it possible that you can shed some light on this? I understand you can't fully prove foulcoon to be lying or truthful, but can you perhaps show us what the Mason Townie's PM (Q's) looked like?
Also to MOD: If player x claims publicly player y is Mason, must player y deny it (assuming player x is correct) or be subject to modkill?
Haven't even bothered to read ph0x's wall. I'm going to get a night's sleep before I attempt to.
1. Closed setup - So no. I cannot show what the PM looked like.
2. It depends on the setup. As you said, generally masons are not allowed to claim. How far each host takes that is up to the individual host or game, sometimes going as far as forcing them to deny it (since it still would be claiming mason, even if they were accused of it). Also, if player X was a mason with player Y and did the above, it would be player X who is modkilled. Finally, the extent of the punishment is also up to the current mod.
So foulcoon has a power to read how many mafia voted for. However, not ending from here, he also said this:foulcoon wrote:
Heres my logic.
I know that 2 mafia voted for lynching Q.
My assumption is; DxS was mason and as foulcoon replacing DxS, he received his new power. I think it's safe to say he is town since Mafia Mason isn't likely to receive another role and masons voting for their fellow mason isn't really logical...foulcoon wrote:
I was given another role with the same alignment?
I won't rule out other players who didn't vote for Q for the same reason raised by other players; there may be more then 2 mafias
May I ask you to reveal your alignments? It may bring some interesting points toward the D1 vote
My two suspicions are rust and Rolled (though my suspicion for Rolled is WIFOM)
rust45: the same reason as D1. Your accusation for Q seem like you were trying to cover your suspicion.
Rolled: Highly WIFOM.
This is really unlike you. You overreacted towards foulcoon's FoS on you.Rolled wrote:
And take that fucking FoS off of me.
Now the WIFOM; I can basicaly use the same accusation you used for Ph0X, lynching the other influential player to gain more power during Days phase. I'm weighing since you immedietly went into action.
foulcoon are you going to roleclaim so we can actually get somewhere
or are you going to leave us unsure as to whether you are actually sure that 2 mafia voted for quaraezha
edit: and I should add that by saying what you said you basically said that bmin11 and rolled are mafia, do you really think that?
or are you going to leave us unsure as to whether you are actually sure that 2 mafia voted for quaraezha
edit: and I should add that by saying what you said you basically said that bmin11 and rolled are mafia, do you really think that?
Request for replacement
I don't have much time on my hand, so I'm asking for a replacement. Sorry guys...
I don't have much time on my hand, so I'm asking for a replacement. Sorry guys...
srs time
@MOD, can there be multiple Mason groups? (since I don't think I can ask IF there are any)
@Ph0X, you make much more sense than Two, but just in case you're trying to mislead me I'll have to reread your post instead.
(I can't understand Two's post even after rereading...)
Oh, you could swap with a possible mafia. I haven't thought of that scenario yet...(offensive instead of defensive role)
Maybe he thought I wouldn't NK Rolled because I voted for him during Day 1. Meaning that I shouldn't have suspected Rolled
in the first place. If not, then he was just underestimating me and some other meta-gaming thing you guys are doing. (Reason for me being a bit unsure of the situation.) There is a lot of focus on this meta-pairing and assumptions...
@MOD, can there be multiple Mason groups? (since I don't think I can ask IF there are any)
@Ph0X, you make much more sense than Two, but just in case you're trying to mislead me I'll have to reread your post instead.
(I can't understand Two's post even after rereading...)
Oh, you could swap with a possible mafia. I haven't thought of that scenario yet...(offensive instead of defensive role)
Maybe he thought I wouldn't NK Rolled because I voted for him during Day 1. Meaning that I shouldn't have suspected Rolled
in the first place. If not, then he was just underestimating me and some other meta-gaming thing you guys are doing. (Reason for me being a bit unsure of the situation.) There is a lot of focus on this meta-pairing and assumptions...
Topic Starter
Multiple mason groups can exist, yes.animask wrote:
srs time
@MOD, can there be multiple Mason groups? (since I don't think I can ask IF there are any)
@Ph0X, you make much more sense than Two, but just in case you're trying to mislead me I'll have to reread your post instead.
(I can't understand Two's post even after rereading...)
Oh, you could swap with a possible mafia. I haven't thought of that scenario yet...(offensive instead of defensive role)
Maybe he thought I wouldn't NK Rolled because I voted for him during Day 1. Meaning that I shouldn't have suspected Rolled
in the first place. If not, then he was just underestimating me and some other meta-gaming thing you guys are doing. (Reason for me being a bit unsure of the situation.) There is a lot of focus on this meta-pairing and assumptions...
bmin wrote:
Rolled: Highly WIFOM.Rolled wrote:
And take that fucking FoS off of me.
I find it suspicious that all of you are acting like you are unable to understand plain english. I'm really not that bad of a writer, and my format wasn't bad either.
Also, you realize that if foulcoon does have the ability to see how many mafia voted for the lynch target, we have already won right? Let me show you:
Voted for Quaraezha
Rolled
Two
rust45
bmin11
If we voted for rolled today, mafia or not, that brings the list to:
Two
Rust45
bmin11
human count at that point would be 3:2 or 4:1
you then vote for either rust45 or bmin and you have a 100% chance to hit mafia if it's 3:2 or 50% if it's 4:1
the human count then looks like this: 2:1
finally, you lynch the remaining player
if there are 3 mafia members then this was a bad setup and I don't mind losing anyway
Also, you realize that if foulcoon does have the ability to see how many mafia voted for the lynch target, we have already won right? Let me show you:
Voted for Quaraezha
Rolled
Two
rust45
bmin11
If we voted for rolled today, mafia or not, that brings the list to:
Two
Rust45
bmin11
human count at that point would be 3:2 or 4:1
you then vote for either rust45 or bmin and you have a 100% chance to hit mafia if it's 3:2 or 50% if it's 4:1
the human count then looks like this: 2:1
finally, you lynch the remaining player
if there are 3 mafia members then this was a bad setup and I don't mind losing anyway
Topic Starter
Lilac replaces bmin11, effective once he posts in the thread.bmin11 wrote:
Request for replacement
I don't have much time on my hand, so I'm asking for a replacement. Sorry guys...
Yo guys. I kinda read through this thread already so... Yay. ^_^
and yet your post was as substantial as a quaraezha post
@foulcoon, 2 mafias voted for Quy? I see... (I did research.)
I believe you for now...
@Two, Rolled Two rust45 bmin11 are your suspects for mafia?
I see how you tried to narrow down the suspects (and included yourself), but
doing that makes me think that you're trying to protect someone (one person not Two) I couldn't resist a Two pun...
Just an idea because I don't have much information to back up that theory.
For a while, I was so lost in all the posts I didn't know what was going on. Now I get it...
I believe you for now...
@Two, Rolled Two rust45 bmin11 are your suspects for mafia?
I see how you tried to narrow down the suspects (and included yourself), but
doing that makes me think that you're trying to protect someone (one person not Two) I couldn't resist a Two pun...
Just an idea because I don't have much information to back up that theory.
For a while, I was so lost in all the posts I didn't know what was going on. Now I get it...
animask what I said isn't hard to understand
I'm going to try to make it pop-up book easy for you:
foulcoon: I know for SURE that there are 2 mafia who voted for quaraezha
two: here are all the people who voted for quaraezha, if we lynch them systematically then we win (if foulcoon roleclaims)
I'm going to try to make it pop-up book easy for you:
foulcoon: I know for SURE that there are 2 mafia who voted for quaraezha
two: here are all the people who voted for quaraezha, if we lynch them systematically then we win (if foulcoon roleclaims)
^ this animask guy. XD ^
Regardless, seeing this, I'm not really sure what else you want me to say. You've pinned all who voted for Q yesterday as possible Mafia if foulcoon is actually DOES have the ability to see how many Mafia did vote for the lynch which I'm not sure where you brought that up from considering he hasn't even roleclaimed (remember, a claim is still...just a claim.), plus not including yourself in the statistic of percentage of lynching Mafia seems like you really want to distance yourself.
However, it is an interesting theory and a plausible one as well, so I won't ignore that. However, after lynching Rolled and finding out he is Mafia, it is also possible that if you were to lynch either Two, rust or I that the next day that you would get a 33% chance of lynching the right person. If Rolled wasn't, then it'll be a 66% chance next day.
Regardless, seeing this, I'm not really sure what else you want me to say. You've pinned all who voted for Q yesterday as possible Mafia if foulcoon is actually DOES have the ability to see how many Mafia did vote for the lynch which I'm not sure where you brought that up from considering he hasn't even roleclaimed (remember, a claim is still...just a claim.), plus not including yourself in the statistic of percentage of lynching Mafia seems like you really want to distance yourself.
However, it is an interesting theory and a plausible one as well, so I won't ignore that. However, after lynching Rolled and finding out he is Mafia, it is also possible that if you were to lynch either Two, rust or I that the next day that you would get a 33% chance of lynching the right person. If Rolled wasn't, then it'll be a 66% chance next day.
almost FoS Two
I understood what you said and those are the people who voted for Quy, but if we actually miss 2 out of those
and it turns out that one of the 3rd (out of 4) isn't mafia, then that would be a townie disadvantage and you both would
be an accomplice or just foulcoon.
Idea not assumption
Two and foulcoon are mafia and claiming that there is a mafia member that voted for Quy when there isn't.
I understood what you said and those are the people who voted for Quy, but if we actually miss 2 out of those
and it turns out that one of the 3rd (out of 4) isn't mafia, then that would be a townie disadvantage and you both would
be an accomplice or just foulcoon.
Idea not assumption
Two and foulcoon are mafia and claiming that there is a mafia member that voted for Quy when there isn't.
Oh lord another one. I'm hoping mario's lack of understanding is founded in his inherited mafia role, and not elsewhere...
I think you should be answering animask instead. I was just trying to correct your statistics, that's all.
You can't correct something that is 100% accurate, sorry. And I don't feel that I should be answering someone who doesn't even understand what he himself is talking about. It's like he randomly puts words down. I actually think you should re-read the thread starting from the end of day 1, Lilac.
Maybe directly answering him will help him though?
but, if foulcoon is telling the truth and really knows without a doubt that 2 mafia voted for quaraezha, then it makes no sense to vote for ph0x and we should then vote for everyone who voted for quaraezha, except me
edit for addition: so I am waiting for foulcoon to roleclaim or correct himself
Maybe directly answering him will help him though?
@Two, Rolled Two rust45 bmin11 are your suspects for mafia?no, ph0x is my suspect for mafia
but, if foulcoon is telling the truth and really knows without a doubt that 2 mafia voted for quaraezha, then it makes no sense to vote for ph0x and we should then vote for everyone who voted for quaraezha, except me
edit for addition: so I am waiting for foulcoon to roleclaim or correct himself
Regardless if it's 100% accurate, it's still circumstantial. I know what I'm talking about, Two. Unless you are confirmed town, your initial statistic is flawed COMPLETELY. If there are two Mafia and lynching both rust and I turns up we are both town, you've done wonderfully well. I've read through this whole thread and unless you've got specific evidence to say you are town then by all means continue to pummel me and go nowhere.Two wrote:
You can't correct something that is 100% accurate, sorry. And I don't feel that I should be answering someone who doesn't even understand what he himself is talking about. It's like he randomly puts words down. I actually think you should re-read the thread starting from the end of day 1, Lilac.
HoS: Two
stopped reading thereLilac wrote:
Regardless if it's 100% accurate, it's still circumstantial. I know what I'm talking about, Two. Unless you are confirmed town, your initial statistic is flawed COMPLETELY.
re-read the goddamn thread thx
Question to everybody:
Which one of these three are the most likely situation for how foulcoon claims to be certain ph0x and animask are not mafia?
1.) Q, foulcoon, animask and ph0x are all Mason. (obviously not town mason)
2.) Q, foulcoon, animask OR ph0x are Mason, and foulcoon also is a Sane Cop
3.) foulcoon has the ability to see how many mafia members voted for the lynch target
4.) foulcoon is mafia.
5.) Other. please explain.
Truthfully I couldn't tell you why everybody is trusting foulcoon (so fucking blindly), but it appears that he is indeed trusted.
Now while I personally do not think that foulcoon is mafia (though it is a possibility), I strongly feel that he's just a terribly misguided townie. In fact, I'm still going to hold strong to my original post until foulcoon gives me reason to think otherwise.
Let me get this post out of the way. A textwall will be arriving in the near future, fair warning.
Which one of these three are the most likely situation for how foulcoon claims to be certain ph0x and animask are not mafia?
1.) Q, foulcoon, animask and ph0x are all Mason. (obviously not town mason)
2.) Q, foulcoon, animask OR ph0x are Mason, and foulcoon also is a Sane Cop
3.) foulcoon has the ability to see how many mafia members voted for the lynch target
4.) foulcoon is mafia.
5.) Other. please explain.
Truthfully I couldn't tell you why everybody is trusting foulcoon (so fucking blindly), but it appears that he is indeed trusted.
Now while I personally do not think that foulcoon is mafia (though it is a possibility), I strongly feel that he's just a terribly misguided townie. In fact, I'm still going to hold strong to my original post until foulcoon gives me reason to think otherwise.
Let me get this post out of the way. A textwall will be arriving in the near future, fair warning.
Regardless if it's 100% accurate, it's still circumstantial.
Also, FoS Two. You're not defending yourself with facts, now are you?
Also, FoS Two. You're not defending yourself with facts, now are you?
Two wrote:
if you aren't going to be here between now and then, vote now pls
Ph0X wrote:
hard reader, possibly has aux role
bmin11 wrote:
short posts
Still going...feel free to stop me. I'm assuming it's got to do with Ph0x's assumptions though...Rolled wrote:
Two is an easier nightkill target than I am, in general. He has a higher rate of success in these games than I do.
@Rolled, I would go with 4 because that is really the best way to be certain. 4.) foulcoon is mafia.
all you have to do is read my first post on day 2 to understandLilac wrote:
Still going...feel free to stop me. I'm assuming it's got to do with Ph0x's assumptions though...
I wanted you to read before that so you understood foulcoon's position
That if foulcoon/DxS is probably considered Mafia due to what Chris said before he was nightkilled?
that literally makes no sense
read what you just wrote word by word
edit: but no I am obviously not trying to make you think that foulcoon is mafia
I just wanted you to see the relationship between him and quaraezha
read what you just wrote word by word
edit: but no I am obviously not trying to make you think that foulcoon is mafia
I just wanted you to see the relationship between him and quaraezha
Okay, there is a lot I want to say, and right now I'm really writing this whole post on the fly without much thought to the structure. Let me first of all get to the point.
If I am lynched today, the town will lose this game.
I am telling you this with utmost certainty. If I get lynched, another townie will get NKed, and the ratio will be 3 town: 2 mafia. Sure, there's a chance of town still winning, but it's a chance that it not worth taking.
The things that people pin on me for being scummy make me fucking facepalm.
I feel that my reasoning for feeling foulcoon being Mason is solid. I've also yet to see anybody question it. If you can't supply me reasoning as to why foulcoon is not Mason, than why is nobody considering the fact that maybe he is? Am I also the only one to notice how he went from smart ass, FoSing Rolled, super-certain Foulcoon to a grasping, kind of easy-going Foulcoon as soon as I posted?
Now let's go back and consider that maybe foulcoon has the ability to see who voted for the target on D1.
Has a role like this ever existed? Please give me a link to it on the wiki or something, as I'm not too familiar with mafia in general.
If you all are suggesting that it's a role LS just created on the spot, this game being the first to have it, I doubt that.
When LS has a new role idea, you can expect a public discussion before actually releasing it in a game.
If somebody can however direct me to the role which foulcoon supposedly has, then I will realize that I may need to change my approach in this game greatly. But until then, he's still Mason. And if foulcoon does not claim a role with this ability, than that only support the idea that he is Mason. He's practically claimed he has the ability to know that animask and ph0x are mafia, why not just state his role? (for those arguing that I'm role-fishing)
Goddddddd my thoughts are all over the place.
Let's just start quoting people now.
In plain terms, I feel that Ph0x is using his daytime private talking ability to manipulate the other Mason's (foulcoon, animask?) into believing what they believe.
Okay I guess that's it. This post fucking blows.
Suggestion: Is there a ballot box manager out there? If so, roleclaim.
The easiest way to find whether Foulcoon is telling the truth or not will be to lynch him, and recount the votes if he happens to be pro-town.
If I'm understanding the Ballot Box Manager's role correctly, we can undo the lynching of foulcoon after we see his confirmed role?
If I am lynched today, the town will lose this game.
I am telling you this with utmost certainty. If I get lynched, another townie will get NKed, and the ratio will be 3 town: 2 mafia. Sure, there's a chance of town still winning, but it's a chance that it not worth taking.
The things that people pin on me for being scummy make me fucking facepalm.
I know bmin isn't even in this game anymore, but this is the situation that's sticking out the most in my head. Did everybody read my post to foulcoon? Like, READ it. Or did you just skim it, and in the end notice my sarcasm, and that's the only point sticking in your mind? Ask yourself if I (or anybody else) would build up a defense as strong as that as mafia. If your answer is yes, than thank you and all, but you're giving me way too much fucking credit.bmin wrote:
My two suspicions are rust and Rolled (though my suspicion for Rolled is WIFOM)
rust45: the same reason as D1. Your accusation for Q seem like you were trying to cover your suspicion.
Rolled: Highly WIFOM.Rolled wrote:
And take that fucking FoS off of me.
I feel that my reasoning for feeling foulcoon being Mason is solid. I've also yet to see anybody question it. If you can't supply me reasoning as to why foulcoon is not Mason, than why is nobody considering the fact that maybe he is? Am I also the only one to notice how he went from smart ass, FoSing Rolled, super-certain Foulcoon to a grasping, kind of easy-going Foulcoon as soon as I posted?
Now let's go back and consider that maybe foulcoon has the ability to see who voted for the target on D1.
Has a role like this ever existed? Please give me a link to it on the wiki or something, as I'm not too familiar with mafia in general.
If you all are suggesting that it's a role LS just created on the spot, this game being the first to have it, I doubt that.
When LS has a new role idea, you can expect a public discussion before actually releasing it in a game.
If somebody can however direct me to the role which foulcoon supposedly has, then I will realize that I may need to change my approach in this game greatly. But until then, he's still Mason. And if foulcoon does not claim a role with this ability, than that only support the idea that he is Mason. He's practically claimed he has the ability to know that animask and ph0x are mafia, why not just state his role? (for those arguing that I'm role-fishing)
Goddddddd my thoughts are all over the place.
Let's just start quoting people now.
The first suggestion is a joke. First and foremost, why the hell would LS give foulcoon a different role? Second, why the hell would foulcoon believe he had a different role? I see nothing but an attempt to grasp at something that isn't there in this post.foulcoon wrote:
I would like to think that perhaps DxS was the mason, but when i replaced him I was given another role with the same alignment?
Also, my role PM doesn't say anything about masons at all.
This above statement shows that Mason have the ability to communicate during the day (since Q was lynched d1, and Masons usually can only communicate at night IF at all) So that supplies some reasoning as to why this game is going in the direction it is going. It also supports my theory (in my eyes) that Ph0x is Mafia Mason, as his posts thus far haven't done anything but really reiterate what others have said. He's picking apart people's logic and reasoning in order to make himself seem to be open-minded to all possibilities, and hasn't really pursued any of his self-gathered tells.Q wrote:
We did not share Mason PMs to the mods
In plain terms, I feel that Ph0x is using his daytime private talking ability to manipulate the other Mason's (foulcoon, animask?) into believing what they believe.
I don't see how that would effect anything that's happening right now in this game.animask wrote:
@MOD, can there be multiple Mason groups? (since I don't think I can ask IF there are any)
Why are you so easy to believe foulcoon?animask wrote:
@foulcoon, 2 mafias voted for Quy? I see... (I did research.)
I believe you for now...
Okay I guess that's it. This post fucking blows.
Suggestion: Is there a ballot box manager out there? If so, roleclaim.
The easiest way to find whether Foulcoon is telling the truth or not will be to lynch him, and recount the votes if he happens to be pro-town.
If I'm understanding the Ballot Box Manager's role correctly, we can undo the lynching of foulcoon after we see his confirmed role?
http://mafiascum.net/wiki/index.php?title=SensorRolled wrote:
Now let's go back and consider that maybe foulcoon has the ability to see who voted for the target on D1.
Has a role like this ever existed? Please give me a link to it on the wiki or something, as I'm not too familiar with mafia in general.
If you all are suggesting that it's a role LS just created on the spot, this game being the first to have it, I doubt that.
When LS has a new role idea, you can expect a public discussion before actually releasing it in a game.
Fuck, okay. Waiting for foulcoon to role-claim sensor.
Did you forget to read my post? Or are you really blind?Rolled wrote:
I feel that my reasoning for feeling foulcoon being Mason is solid. I've also yet to see anybody question it.
No, I didn't see that. Let me look again.Rolled wrote:
Am I also the only one to notice how he went from smart ass, FoSing Rolled, super-certain Foulcoon to a grasping, kind of easy-going Foulcoon as soon as I posted?
Nope. I think you're letting your emotions affect your thinking.
Knowledgeable townie and sensor are two I can think of. (The former usually gains their knowledge at the start of the game, but I wouldn't find it hard to believe they could gain knowledge throughout the game.)Rolled wrote:
Now let's go back and consider that maybe foulcoon has the ability to see who voted for the target on D1.
Has a role like this ever existed? Please give me a link to it on the wiki or something, as I'm not too familiar with mafia in general.
If you all are suggesting that it's a role LS just created on the spot, this game being the first to have it, I doubt that.
When LS has a new role idea, you can expect a public discussion before actually releasing it in a game.
If somebody can however direct me to the role which foulcoon supposedly has, then I will realize that I may need to change my approach in this game greatly. But until then, he's still Mason.
I don't remember him saying that. Typo?Rolled wrote:
He's practically claimed he has the ability to know that animask and ph0x are mafia, ...
I read that quote as "wtf are you talking about Rolled? maybe LS changed my role from mason to [whatever I am now], but I don't see how your conclusion relates to what I have said", or something. Maybe I am giving foul too much credit.Rolled wrote:
The first suggestion is a joke. First and foremost, why the hell would LS give foulcoon a different role? Second, why the hell would foulcoon believe he had a different role? I see nothing but an attempt to grasp at something that isn't there in this post.foulcoon wrote:
I would like to think that perhaps DxS was the mason, but when i replaced him I was given another role with the same alignment?
Also, my role PM doesn't say anything about masons at all.
I'm picking apart people's logic for several reasons:Rolled wrote:
[Ph0X]'s picking apart people's logic and reasoning in order to make himself seem to be open-minded to all possibilities, and hasn't really pursued any of his self-gathered tells.
- I want to understand what they are saying.
- I want to make sure I am not misunderstanding what they are saying.
- I want to write down conclusions I find along the way.
- I want to use my notes to help build an argument when I am ready.
Also, see what I have done day 1. What you just said contradicts what I have done.
I am not a mason. I also have never been a mason, and I have not dealt with masons in LS games. However, from what I know of masons, they typically do not communicate during the daytime.Rolled wrote:
In plain terms, I feel that Ph0x is using his daytime private talking ability to manipulate the other Mason's (foulcoon, animask?) into believing what they believe.
What do you make of quaraezha's day 2 post then?Ph0X wrote:
I am not a mason. I also have never been a mason, and I have not dealt with masons in LS games. However, from what I know of masons, they typically do not communicate during the daytime.Rolled wrote:
In plain terms, I feel that Ph0x is using his daytime private talking ability to manipulate the other Mason's (foulcoon, animask?) into believing what they believe.
And what do you think about my idea of systematic lynching, assuming foulcoon claims sensor?
Let's say that there are seven players, and two of four specific players are known to be mafia.
Let's call those four potentially-mafia players A, B, X, and Y. Let's say A and B are townies, and X and Y are mafia.
It's clearly in the best interest of the mafia to kill players not in this set of four players, so I will not consider those possibilities.
Here are the possible lynch permutations, assuming all vanilla:
TT 1/4 M
Day 2, 7 players (5/2); lynch A; alive: B, X, Y
Day 3, 5 players (3/2); lynch B; alive: X, Y
Day 4, 3 players (1/2); mafia win
TMT 1/8 M
Day 2, 7 players (5/2); lynch A; alive: B, X, Y
Day 3, 5 players (3/2); lynch X; alive: B, Y
Day 4, 3 players (2/1); lynch B; alive: Y
Day 5, 1 players (0/1); mafia win
TMM 1/8 T
Day 2, 7 players (5/2); lynch A; alive: B, X, Y
Day 3, 5 players (3/2); lynch X; alive: B, Y
Day 4, 3 players (2/1); lynch Y; alive: B
Day 5, 2 players (2/0); town win
MTT 1/8 M
Day 2, 7 players (5/2); lynch X; alive: A, B, Y
Day 3, 5 players (4/1); lynch A; alive: B, Y
Day 4, 3 players (2/1); lynch B; alive: Y
Day 5, 1 players (0/1); mafia win
MTM 1/8 T
Day 2, 7 players (5/2); lynch X; alive: A, B, Y
Day 3, 5 players (4/1); lynch A; alive: B, Y
Day 4, 3 players (2/1); lynch Y; alive: B
Day 5, 2 players (2/0); town win
MM 1/4 T
Day 2, 7 players (5/2); lynch X; alive: A, B, Y
Day 3, 5 players (4/1); lynch Y; town win
(Format is: lynches in order (M=mafia, T=town), probability of the situation occurring given random chance, eventual win.)
Let's tally up the probabilities:
TT 1/4 M
TMT 1/8 M
TMM 1/8 T
MTT 1/8 M
MTM 1/8 T
MM 1/4 T
M = 1/4 + 1/8 + 1/8 = 1/2 = 50%
T = 1/8 + 1/8 + 1/4 = 1/2 = 50%
If we assume foul is telling the truth, randomly lynching will not tilt the odds in either team's favor. This is what MM (Lilac) was trying to say, Two.
Things are different if we are only looking at three players (one townie, two mafia). Basically, just chop off the TT, TMT, and MTT possibilities:
TMM 1/8 T
MTM 1/8 T
MM 1/4 T
So what do we get? A guaranteed townie win.
Of course, this all hinges on a few assumptions:
Let's call those four potentially-mafia players A, B, X, and Y. Let's say A and B are townies, and X and Y are mafia.
It's clearly in the best interest of the mafia to kill players not in this set of four players, so I will not consider those possibilities.
Here are the possible lynch permutations, assuming all vanilla:
TT 1/4 M
Day 2, 7 players (5/2); lynch A; alive: B, X, Y
Day 3, 5 players (3/2); lynch B; alive: X, Y
Day 4, 3 players (1/2); mafia win
TMT 1/8 M
Day 2, 7 players (5/2); lynch A; alive: B, X, Y
Day 3, 5 players (3/2); lynch X; alive: B, Y
Day 4, 3 players (2/1); lynch B; alive: Y
Day 5, 1 players (0/1); mafia win
TMM 1/8 T
Day 2, 7 players (5/2); lynch A; alive: B, X, Y
Day 3, 5 players (3/2); lynch X; alive: B, Y
Day 4, 3 players (2/1); lynch Y; alive: B
Day 5, 2 players (2/0); town win
MTT 1/8 M
Day 2, 7 players (5/2); lynch X; alive: A, B, Y
Day 3, 5 players (4/1); lynch A; alive: B, Y
Day 4, 3 players (2/1); lynch B; alive: Y
Day 5, 1 players (0/1); mafia win
MTM 1/8 T
Day 2, 7 players (5/2); lynch X; alive: A, B, Y
Day 3, 5 players (4/1); lynch A; alive: B, Y
Day 4, 3 players (2/1); lynch Y; alive: B
Day 5, 2 players (2/0); town win
MM 1/4 T
Day 2, 7 players (5/2); lynch X; alive: A, B, Y
Day 3, 5 players (4/1); lynch Y; town win
(Format is: lynches in order (M=mafia, T=town), probability of the situation occurring given random chance, eventual win.)
Let's tally up the probabilities:
TT 1/4 M
TMT 1/8 M
TMM 1/8 T
MTT 1/8 M
MTM 1/8 T
MM 1/4 T
M = 1/4 + 1/8 + 1/8 = 1/2 = 50%
T = 1/8 + 1/8 + 1/4 = 1/2 = 50%
If we assume foul is telling the truth, randomly lynching will not tilt the odds in either team's favor. This is what MM (Lilac) was trying to say, Two.
Things are different if we are only looking at three players (one townie, two mafia). Basically, just chop off the TT, TMT, and MTT possibilities:
TMM 1/8 T
MTM 1/8 T
MM 1/4 T
So what do we get? A guaranteed townie win.
Of course, this all hinges on a few assumptions:
- foul is telling the truth.
- All lynches and nightkills are successful.
- No lynches and nightkills are reversed.
- There is one confirmed townie among the four.
Nothing. I am disregarding what Q said completely.Two wrote:
What do you make of quaraezha's day 2 post then?Ph0X wrote:
[quote removed]
I am not a mason. I also have never been a mason, and I have not dealt with masons in LS games. However, from what I know of masons, they typically do not communicate during the daytime.
See the post I just made. (You posted after I started writing it.)Two wrote:
And what do you think about my idea of systematic lynching, assuming foulcoon claims sensor?
Add to that list:Ph0X wrote:
Of course, this all hinges on a few assumptions:
- foul is telling the truth.
- All lynches and nightkills are successful.
- No lynches and nightkills are reversed.
- There is one confirmed townie among the four.
- No other kills are made.
Vote: Two
? I'm pretty sure you agreed with me here
2 aux: chris.foulcoon
2 mafia from the 3 of these people: rolled/lilac/rust
2 masons: quaraezha and ???
3 town: me, ??? ???
So what do we get? A guaranteed townie win.edit: and also you and I both know there will be no extra kills, this is the role list if foulcoon is a sensor
2 aux: chris.foulcoon
2 mafia from the 3 of these people: rolled/lilac/rust
2 masons: quaraezha and ???
3 town: me, ??? ???
"foul claims sensor" != "foul is proven sensor".Two wrote:
? I'm pretty sure you agreed with me hereSo what do we get? A guaranteed townie win.
Also, there are the other assumptions to consider.
If those assumptions are made, yes, I agree with you. But those assumptions are not being made right now, so no, I do not agree with you.
(Please don't edit posts.)Two wrote:
edit: and also you and I both know there will be no extra kills, this is the role list if foulcoon is a sensor
2 aux: chris.foulcoon
2 mafia from the 3 of these people: rolled/lilac/rust
2 masons: quaraezha and ???
3 town: me, ??? ???
There are modkills, and there may be a vig role or something. I don't like to discount circumstances which are very real and possible.
it's not very real and possible for there to be 3 aux and 2 masons in a 9 person game
edit: and I will continue to edit my posts that don't change post content thx
edit: and I will continue to edit my posts that don't change post content thx
Question to Ph0X: What happens if there are no lynches made today?
Something tells me that the odds would be terrible...
Something tells me that the odds would be terrible...
we are already down 2 town so that makes it either:
3 mafia vs 4 town (lol)
or
2 mafia vs 5 town
nolynch would make it 100%
3 mafia vs 2 town
or
2 mafia vs 3 town
nolynch is always bad but especially now
3 mafia vs 4 town (lol)
or
2 mafia vs 5 town
nolynch would make it 100%
3 mafia vs 2 town
or
2 mafia vs 3 town
nolynch is always bad but especially now
Two wrote:
nolynch would make it 100%
3 mafia vs 3 town
or
2 mafia vs 4 town
You guys will just have to trust me on this one.
I like Two's plan, but remove the voting for Rolled specifically part and the exempting Two from lynching (that he is trying to work in so badly). I'm more inclined to believe that bmin wouldn't just drop out of a mafia role and ask for replacement, but its always a possibility.
I like Two's plan, but remove the voting for Rolled specifically part and the exempting Two from lynching (that he is trying to work in so badly). I'm more inclined to believe that bmin wouldn't just drop out of a mafia role and ask for replacement, but its always a possibility.
Wait, I'm getting voted for somewhere in this strategy?
Does this translate to "rust and Two are mafia?" I'm confused.foulcoon wrote:
I like Two's plan, but remove the voting for Rolled specifically part and the exempting Two from lynching (that he is trying to work in so badly). I'm more inclined to believe that bmin wouldn't just drop out of a mafia role and ask for replacement, but its always a possibility.
are you saying you don't have a sensor role?
yes/no? very simple
and I'm not trying "very badly" to exclude myself, I already excluded myself in my first post, which was then supported by rolled and ph0x
which is why it's funny that ph0x even voted for me
yes/no? very simple
and I'm not trying "very badly" to exclude myself, I already excluded myself in my first post, which was then supported by rolled and ph0x
which is why it's funny that ph0x even voted for me
Cite exactly where that was "supported by ... ph0x".Two wrote:
and I'm not trying "very badly" to exclude myself, I already excluded myself in my first post, which was then supported by rolled and ph0x
which is why it's funny that ph0x even voted for me
Also, I am not saying that I don't have an aux role. As a matter of fact, I do have an aux role. I'll leave it at that. The fate of town basically rests on a voting alliance with myself, Ph0X and animask (or myself, one of Ph0X OR animask, and 2 of the 4 accused). Once all 3 of us vote one way, at least one of the 4 accused should vote the same way, starting the systematic lynching of the 4 giving us what I believe is the best chance at winning this.Two wrote:
I find it suspicious that all of you are acting like you are unable to understand plain english. I'm really not that bad of a writer, and my format wasn't bad either.
Also, you realize that if foulcoon does have the ability to see how many mafia voted for the lynch target, we have already won right? Let me show you:
Voted for Quaraezha
Rolled
Two
rust45
bmin11
If we voted for rolled today, mafia or not, that brings the list to:
Two
Rust45
bmin11
human count at that point would be 3:2 or 4:1
you then vote for either rust45 or bmin and you have a 100% chance to hit mafia if it's 3:2 or 50% if it's 4:1
the human count then looks like this: 2:1
finally, you lynch the remaining player
if there are 3 mafia members then this was a bad setup and I don't mind losing anyway
@Ph0x, animask: your thoughts?
look, you say ph0x and animask aren't mafia
I believe 100% animask isn't, and I believe you aren't
you also say that 2 mafia voted for quaraezha
I'm willing to vote for rust45 or Lilac, and I'd prefer rust45 since he's been lurking this whole game
edit for elaboration: we have 3 lynches left so rust45 will be the information everyone needs
I believe 100% animask isn't, and I believe you aren't
you also say that 2 mafia voted for quaraezha
I'm willing to vote for rust45 or Lilac, and I'd prefer rust45 since he's been lurking this whole game
edit for elaboration: we have 3 lynches left so rust45 will be the information everyone needs
I think I already answered that question.foulcoon wrote:
@Ph0x, animask: your thoughts?
rust45 and Lilac (bmin) are the only two who haven't outright claimed town (I think?). Its not that I completely believe either Two or Rolled, I just find it ironic. I'm starting to lean towards voting rust as he has been just lurking for the most part, and I've had my suspicions in the past about him.
unvote: vote rust
inb4 foul, Two, and Rolled are all mafia.
Whoa Whoa Whoa, hold on. Don't you think it's tad early to be trying to bandwagaon someone? Yes I have been lurking-ish and I know it does hurt the game. But I can't really help it. Honestly, I think it's suspicious how you guys are going so fast at trying to get a bandwagon in. I'm gonna put on FoS: Two for now as I think it's a tad early for voting(even if we can unvote at the moment) I would but an FoS on rolled but I have reason to believe he's townie.
cry more
the fact is you have lurked for this whole game, I've seen you do it just by being active myself
I can't even remember anything you have contributed and I feel it was intentional
your death gives too much information, it makes no sense not to lynch you when you also have been acting like mafia
the fact is you have lurked for this whole game, I've seen you do it just by being active myself
I can't even remember anything you have contributed and I feel it was intentional
your death gives too much information, it makes no sense not to lynch you when you also have been acting like mafia
I find that bandwagon vote hilarious btw... (Two/Rolled)
Vote: Two
@rust45, early isn't really an issue, but what makes you think Rolled is a townie?
Vote: Two
@rust45, early isn't really an issue, but what makes you think Rolled is a townie?
and I find your lack of understanding disgusting as a human being and american
edit: at least have the humility to ask questions and educate yourself
edit: at least have the humility to ask questions and educate yourself
you know what? I'm tired of this game
I'm tired of having to try to convince people that refuse to read, that refuse to comprehend, that refuse to even participate in this game
newsflash: I was confirmed town day 2
anyone with half a brain that read the thread knew that already (ie no one)
but I guess that isn't plain enough for you people is it? how about this:
roleclaim sane cop
that good enough? lets just get rid of our safety net and rest all of our hopes on whether foulcoon is lying or not (hint: he is if we lynch rust45 and he isn't mafia)
I'm tired of having to try to convince people that refuse to read, that refuse to comprehend, that refuse to even participate in this game
newsflash: I was confirmed town day 2
anyone with half a brain that read the thread knew that already (ie no one)
but I guess that isn't plain enough for you people is it? how about this:
roleclaim sane cop
that good enough? lets just get rid of our safety net and rest all of our hopes on whether foulcoon is lying or not (hint: he is if we lynch rust45 and he isn't mafia)
at night I scanned rolled but was roleblocked, when chris died in the morning I knew for sure that he used his ability on me because of that
I then figured that if rolled were to night kill me it wouldn't have been because he thought I was aux, and so he wouldn't roleblock me
so then I turned to the other person who supposedly thinks: ph0x, and centered my post around the point of him being mafia
and then we have his name cleared by the information that 2 mafia voted for quaraezha
and so that leaves rust45 (likely to be mafia by his actions), lilac (likely to be mafia by his actions, also tried to group me, rolled and chris together as bmin, which he thought was safe at that point since it had already been said twice before that I believe), and rolled, who is almost definitely not mafia for multiple reasons
because of the above, here is what you do:
lynch rust45 today, he is confirmed mafia for sure, force lilac not to vote for him
then I die at night, foulcoon says how many mafia voted for rust45 in the morning
when he gets 0, you then lynch lilac and win
worst case scenarios:
1. rolled is mafia and it takes 1 extra day to win, big deal
2. foulcoon lied (most likely if rust45 is town), in which case you lynch foulcoon on day 3 and choose between animask and ph0x on day 4 (I suggest ph0x)
now don't expect me to reply to anything stupid you say in response, I will only be voting from now on for the sake of my sanity
I then figured that if rolled were to night kill me it wouldn't have been because he thought I was aux, and so he wouldn't roleblock me
so then I turned to the other person who supposedly thinks: ph0x, and centered my post around the point of him being mafia
and then we have his name cleared by the information that 2 mafia voted for quaraezha
and so that leaves rust45 (likely to be mafia by his actions), lilac (likely to be mafia by his actions, also tried to group me, rolled and chris together as bmin, which he thought was safe at that point since it had already been said twice before that I believe), and rolled, who is almost definitely not mafia for multiple reasons
because of the above, here is what you do:
lynch rust45 today, he is confirmed mafia for sure, force lilac not to vote for him
then I die at night, foulcoon says how many mafia voted for rust45 in the morning
when he gets 0, you then lynch lilac and win
worst case scenarios:
1. rolled is mafia and it takes 1 extra day to win, big deal
2. foulcoon lied (most likely if rust45 is town), in which case you lynch foulcoon on day 3 and choose between animask and ph0x on day 4 (I suggest ph0x)
now don't expect me to reply to anything stupid you say in response, I will only be voting from now on for the sake of my sanity
I knew you would ^___^animask wrote:
I find that bandwagon vote hilarious btw... (Two/Rolled)
It's not so much me bandwagoning as it is me agreeing, though.