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The Eleventh Hour - Game Over

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Nyxa

beeboy123 wrote:

I wonder how the people here would react if they learned I carry town a lot on MS >_>
I would say that if you carry town on MS that only makes you look more scummy right now because you don't look like a town carry at all.

Shiirn wrote:

<statistics and explanations etc.>
I am fine with this post.

Unvote

Right now the odds of Shiirn being scum to me are far lower than the odds of anyone else being scum. The reason I say this is because even though he's being wifomtastic, there's a certain reason he's posting the way he does. I'm gonna give Shiirn the town flag for now, but I don't wanna explain why just yet. I'm also fine with his RC. I'm not gonna do the wifom thing right now and unless I get killed N2 (I sure fucking hope not) there'll be time to do that later. I don't really expect to get lynched either and Shiirn seems like a waste of time right now, even though I can make plenty of that.

So yeah, just gonna assume Shiirn's town until we've learned more about this game and hope I don't die.

So my main targets right now are Xiz and beeboy. Both have been saying significantly scummy shit D2 and it just feels like they're starting to blow their cover with regards to the Sakura NK. I poked Shiirn with a vote and his reply was satisfactory, but theirs weren't and I didn't even get to them yet. I could also see reasoning for them killing Sakura since she had asked to be replaced out already, so they could do that and then go "hmm sakura sure was a bad kill, I wonder what scum is up to" (and what do you fucking know as I'm writing this I read this:)

beeboy123 wrote:

Not to mention about what I already said about Sakura already being a bad kill.


This is one of my reasons for suspecting them, along with their posts being fishy as fuck and beeboy trying to paint Mbomb as scum for.. what?

So yeah. I'd rather vote beeboy right now but since Haneii went with Xiz I'm going along with that.

Vote: Xiz

Will post more later, have been busy and whatnot. Please correct me if I made any mistakes in this post.
beeboy123
I really want someone to explain to me the motive behind killing a slot that has no user inside of it.
Then once the fail to do that I want them to vote MBomb for claiming it is a good idea.
beeboy123
If I get lynched for this I won't even care.
Haneii

Xiz wrote:

I posted my response a clear hour before you voted for me. You haven't responded to me, and still haven't up to this point in our chat.
A clear hour? Maybe. "About" 13 hours could also mean we posted within the same hour. However, I did post before going to bed without checking QT one last time. I assumed when you said you were going "AFK" in this thread that you would be telling the truth and you'd be afk:

Xiz wrote:

Also I'mma be AFK for most of the day
I didn't think it was necessary for me to keep checking QT/my notifications as much. Yet I still wanted an answer to my question. So before going to bed I voted you as a reminder/prompt and was hoping I would get a response by morning. I didn't expect you to snap o.o

As for not responding to you in QT now - like the conversation you pasted shows, you haven't asked me anything.

ANYWAYS, can you just answer the question:


Haneii wrote:

Oh btw,

Xiz wrote:

I'm hard claiming btw.
You haven't claimed everything o.o. Why?
Haneii
@mod: V/LA for 3 days. Con weekend.

I'll still strive to post at least every night before going to sleep, if not more.
Xiz
I claimed my ability Haneii, lol. I dunno how many roles there are in this setup. If I have some type of ability I consider that a power role.

@Tess how familiar are you with TWG as a whole, I wanna know if you have actually played before
Xiz
im never lynching beeboy and Shiirn this game btw.
Haneii
I just don't get why you aren't sharing everything with everyone. You've already role claimed and told everyone about the giraffe. Why keep any additional info/abilities from everyone?

Note: I AM NOT trying to push you to share more with everyone. You may keep it to yourself. Just tell me WHY you don't want the other players or scum to know.
Nyxa

Xiz wrote:

@Tess how familiar are you with TWG as a whole, I wanna know if you have actually played before
I'm an absolute nooblet who's never played before, of course. What's up with the attitude?
Nyxa
This game is a mess.
Nyxa

Shiirn wrote:

I'm Jimmy the Giraffe, for what it's worth. I have the Twin (flavor!!!!! not role!!!! this confused me as well) passive, which tells me there is a Jerry out there who is probably also a Giraffe by virtue of being my twin.


This game has rather suffered due to lack of clarity and I, like beeboy, have found myself growing rather apathetic about its results.
The fuck, I missed this post entirely. I'm Jerry. I have no idea what the purpose is though. Not sure if it's an alignment confirmation or anything. And yeah the lack of clarity in this game is kinda bleh and I wish roles were more role-oriented rather than flavor, but oh well.

Anyhow, since I already claimed Jerry might as well claim what I'm able to do as well - I got two Clockwork Parts on D1 and D2 respectively. Each of them means I can advance or rewind the time of day by an hour - so I can advance or rewind 2 hours total. I'm not sure what good this does other than extending the day since if I use it to forward the day the worst I can do is force a nolynch, which is something town should be able to do with discussion anyway.

Also, after re-reading this

Xiz wrote:

The problem is my check is kinda useless because I know the name of the role, not the name of the player, and hillini (and im assuming his partner know). I softed this before about the zoo, but whoever is the Giraffe, I know you are town. Better for me to say this now instead of later.
with a clear head (not a 5 AM head like I did yesterday) I realized Xiz actually confirmed me town here, maybe. Depends on which Giraffe it is because I'm Jerry the Giraffe, and my twin is Jimmy the Giraffe, a role Shiirn claimed. I believe Shiirn is town, especially since he claimed first. It's kinda unfortunate he mentioned there being a Jerry rather than a second Giraffe which makes me claiming second a bit harder but yeah. I haven't had much time so whenever I posted I just skimmed the threads and added that if I made any mistakes anyone should correct me, and wound up overlooking something like this ;_;

Either way, that gives me enough reason to remove my vote on Xiz for now since even though he claimed he knew Giraffe was town, he seemed to be wary of me, which makes me think he had no clue of my alignment.

Which just leaves beeboy out of everyone I suspected. And I still refuse to suspect Mbomb for now.

Unvote

Sorry for my sloppy gameplay this game. I should probably just wait with posting until I have the time to thoroughly read everything rather than post based on skimming. That's my mistake.

I'm not voting beeboy just yet but eh. This game is kind of giving me a headache with how hard it is to actually know what's going on.

Xiz, would you mind telling me why you're so sure beeboy is town?
Nyxa

Haneii wrote:

I just don't get why you aren't sharing everything with everyone. You've already role claimed and told everyone about the giraffe. Why keep any additional info/abilities from everyone?

Note: I AM NOT trying to push you to share more with everyone. You may keep it to yourself. Just tell me WHY you don't want the other players or scum to know.
This also really bothers me and I'm pretty sure everyone would like to hear more about this.
Shiirn
I was only given the name of my twin, like you, I presume. I assumed that Jerry was also a giraffe because, you know, twins. But weirder things have happened.

A handful of us also got clockwork parts (seeing the responses to my trinket pokes) but they seem unrelated to our power roles.


What exactly is Xiz trying to claim with his giraffe-related posts? "All giraffes = town"? I'm confused.
Nyxa
If there are any other Giraffes they should probably claim now, but if we're the only two (which would make sense since twins) then I'm not sure either. Maybe all he was told was that the person he investigated was nicknamed "Giraffe" and was town. But if that's the case, that'd actually be a problem because then neither one of us would be confirmed town, all that would be certain is that at least one of us is town for sure, and the other one would still be null, but they wouldn't know which. Knowing my role though you are confirmed town in my eyes from this point onwards, and pretty much the only one in this game.

I still don't know why beeboy is so focused on Mbomb's post. Mbomb didn't think Sakura was a bad kill. I don't either. It's only a bad kill at face value, but that's exactly why it can be a good NK if you include wifom-related reasons to it. It just feels like beeboy jumped onto Mbomb a bit too hastily for me.
-[Jess]-
so those 'Giraffe' are 'really' town,
and I need to know everyone 's role so i can pick a lair and kick them
Nyxa
???
-[Jess]-
I am roleclaiming
Nyxa
No, Xiz is claiming that there is a "Giraffe" in this game, and that that Giraffe was town. Shiirn claimed to be the Giraffe, but said he had a twin, and then I claimed that I am said twin, and now we are trying to figure out whether both Giraffes are town, or whether Xiz had targeted a specific Giraffe of the two. That there are two we are certain, because nobody has bothered to counterclaim (and I'd be surprised if anyone did at this point) and Shiirn's name claim matched the name I was given when I was sent my role PM, so I'm 100% certain that Shiirn is my twin, and I don't see a reason for anyone to disbelieve us since Xiz is basically the third person to confirm this.

Basically what I'm trying to achieve here is get some people confirmed as town so we can narrow down the list of possible suspects. Even if it's just one, one conftown is better than none. All of this makes Xiz look very towny as well because as a scum there'd be no reason for him to confirm Shiirn as town that way. The only way this would be a scum play would be if Shiirn and Xiz are scum, and decided to use Shiirn being my twin as a reason to make everyone else think they're town by having me (or whoever the twin would've been, since as scum they couldn't have known who the twin is, but they would know for certain that the other twin is town). That would be problematic actually.

In fact, if Shiirn and Xiz are scum I think the odds of winning this game are pretty low for town. I'd like to see what Haneii and Mbomb have to say about this. Regardless, that would've been quite the impressive play so I'm gonna bet my money on Shiirn and Xiz being town, for now. For now.

Also, beeboy's opinion is always welcome even though I'm suspicious of him right now. I just wanna get things rolling so we can get more info out of people.
Nyxa

-[Jess]- wrote:

I am roleclaiming
What's your role?
-[Jess]-
Vig
Zexion
@Mod: V/LA until Sunday.

I literally can't play right now. Sorry everyone.
Nyxa
Everyone V/LA or not posting. Bleh.
Xiz

Tess wrote:

Xiz, would you mind telling me why you're so sure beeboy is town?
I've liked his thought transitions throughout this game. His thoughts have evolved, and while I might not agree with everything he says, I understand his point of view and like what he is doing.

He could very well be mafia though, but it would take a lot of convincing for me to vote him, like a hard check or something lol.


Also Tess, attitudes can be interpreted differently through text, that wasn't suppose to be mean.
Xiz
^ Also it was weird since I was reading you as town you suddenly voted for me after I claimed that.
From my eyes, the only reasons why you would vote for me there are:

- You are mafia and I apparently am on the right track to killing your partner?
- You didn't read my post correctly

So I had to assume you missed the post, because it's a very very very bad mafia play to vote me there when you were previously (if im not mistaken) town reading me.
Xiz

Shiirn wrote:

What exactly is Xiz trying to claim with his giraffe-related posts? "All giraffes = town"? I'm confused.
All I know is that I dreamed of a giraffe, who was town. So one of you is confirmed town, the other is not.
MBomb
god damnit why are people roleclaiming i'm seriously confused right now

also Tess those clockwork parts are a part of the flavour, still not sure what they're gonna be used for though, but it doesn't shorten or extend the day, it moves the clock of the flavour backwards or forwards.
Xiz
Also there are no counterclaims for the giraffe twins, so that's good.

Also medic, save me tonight please. Or do some reverse psychology if you are a good player lol.
MBomb
Also yeah it's looking like Xiz isn't really scum based of him saying this, so...

Unvote
Xiz

- Magic Bomb - wrote:

god damnit why are people roleclaiming i'm seriously confused right now
I had to for the way my neighbor (Haneii) reacted to my claim when I honestly thought that he was my mason bro, since I accidentally outed to him.
Xiz

Haneii wrote:

I didn't think it was necessary for me to keep checking QT/my notifications as much. Yet I still wanted an answer to my question. So before going to bed I voted you as a reminder/prompt and was hoping I would get a response by morning. I didn't expect you to snap o.o
So by your logic, you voted for me after acknowledging my claim, and purposely refused to check our chat for more info.
So the second I claimed, you insta-voted for me without questioning me. The fuck????????



If you are town, I seriously advice you to reconsider your stance, because there is no world where this would be considered appropriate for town UNLESS you claim the exact role I am.

And EVEN THEN the sheer probability of me claiming your exact role in a closed setup is near impossible.



gg Haneii
MBomb
@Xiz: I meant more Jess than anyone else
beeboy123
Xiz, Haneii and Shiirn are all town from that night kill.
beeboy123
Plz guys read my posts you don't need to come up with conclusions yourself when you can sheep me.
beeboy123
I am tempted to compromise for an automedic lynch out of sheer POE as I think that all people that aren't AutoMedic or Mbomb have a high chance of being town :/
Nyxa

Xiz wrote:

All I know is that I dreamed of a giraffe, who was town. So one of you is confirmed town, the other is not.
This is good. This means that between me and Shiirn, there's a 100% chance that either one of us is town, and a 50% chance that the other one is scum. Which means there's a 75% chance that both of us are town, so my assumptions so far seem to be correct. Neither one of us is conf town, but the odds of both of us being town are higher than the odds of one of us being scum. But that's ignoring a lot of other variables but yeah, I hope that makes sense. I think Xiz making this play as scum would be absolutely stupid unless, as before mentioned, Xiz and Shiirn are pulling a brilliant scum play right now in which case kudos to you.

For the sake of my sanity I'll just assume Xiz and Shiirn are town. With Sakura and Zaph dead, that leaves 9 people:

Shiirn - 75% chance of being town based on claims
Tess - ^
Xiz - Most likely town, if not town then definitely in a scum team with Shiirn
Mbomb - Mostly null/nulltown so far
Jess - Mostly Jess. Vig claim is interesting though.
Zexion - V/LA, no comment
Haneii - Was nulltown in my book but Xiz and his discussion would require some more time for me to analyze. null until then
beeboy - Boy you make my spidey senses tingle. Nullscum for now.
AutoMedic - I've barely seen this guy post, what's up with that?

From that list, the most interesting lynch for today would be beeboy for me. However I am also up for a nolynch. I don't regret lynching Zaph but unless we can find some strong leads today I'm not down for lynching another town. Especially with Jess as a possible vig, if we mislynch she might end up shooting another town at night and we'll lose 3 townies and be down 5 townies by D3 and instantly reach MyLo. I'm definitely not up for that.

- Magic Bomb - wrote:

also Tess those clockwork parts are a part of the flavour, still not sure what they're gonna be used for though, but it doesn't shorten or extend the day, it moves the clock of the flavour backwards or forwards.
What the shit that's fucking confusing.

Fuck it

I activate my trap card or whatever. I want to set the clock forward by 1 hour

Let's see what the fuck this does because this seems entirely useless.
beeboy123
Why are you only 75% chance of being town?
I am tempted to use my trap card and set the clock back 1 hour
Nyxa

beeboy123 wrote:

Plz guys read my posts you don't need to come up with conclusions yourself when you can sheep me.
Your cockiness triggers me

beeboy123 wrote:

I am tempted to compromise for an automedic lynch out of sheer POE as I think that all people that aren't AutoMedic or Mbomb have a high chance of being town :/
Why Automedic though? For someone so confident you seem to rarely post explanations. You said that most of your votes are hunches, but you're also asking people to sheep you based on your hunches. I am reading your posts and gaining nothing out of them.
Nyxa

beeboy123 wrote:

Why are you only 75% chance of being town?
I am tempted to use my trap card and set the clock back 1 hour
Actually, I've messed up the math, but it's basically like a reverse monty hall problem. Because there's two of us, and we have only confirmed that at least one of us is town, but we don't know which one. So with the possibilities only being town or scum, the character that Xiz didn't dream about (the other twin) has a 50% chance of being scum. This means that the odds of both of us being scum is 0%, but the odds of one of us being scum is 66.7%.

The reasoning behind that is because right now there are only three possibilities:

  1. Shiirn town, Tess town
  2. Shiirn scum, Tess town
  3. Shiirn town, Tess scum
However, these are the odds of at least one of us being scum. If you take us individually, then instead of having 2/3 scenarios where we're scum, there are 2/3 scenarios where we're town, like this:

  1. Shiirn town
  2. Shiirn scum
  3. Shiirn town
So, I was wrong, the odds are not 75% for us individually, but 67% (or 66.7% to be precise). But the same odds that there are for us being town as individuals, are the odds that between the both of us, at least one of us is scum.

Holy shit I overcomplicated this and brought math into it and I'm sorry. But that should explain it. This does change things up a bit though. I'll have to rethink everything I've said.
Nyxa
If I'm onto the right trail here, Xiz may not be scum but Shiirn probably is.
Topic Starter
Frostings
As our guests try to discern
In the distance, a clock begins to turn

It is 2 o'clock

Vote Count 2.3

(1) Xiz: Haneii
(1) - Magic Bomb -: beeboy123
(1) Haneii: Xiz

Not Voting: AutoMedic, -[Jess]-, Shiirn, Zexion, Tess, - Magic Bomb -
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