But what's the possibility of him being the Insomniac? If you're a wolf and you're close to getting lynched, why wouldn't you role claim to try and survive? Personally I'd say a role claim doesn't really matter unless it's a role that can be proved somehow; even if we keep him alive for the night, he could just say "Rolled is a wolf" or "Two is a wolf" or something like that tomorrow to cast suspicion onto them, but whether he's telling the truth or not there's still not really any reason to believe him. So then we'll have to lynch someone else today who could just as well have an aux role, or at least be human. And since there's not really anyone else that's suspicious, there's not much choice right now.0_o wrote:
I was going to vote for him too after reading the "unless he's town" comment, but idk, seeing as the Insomniac is kind of an important role I don't know if it's worth the risk? I'm a fairly cautious player so I never like lynching someone after they roleclaim unless there is fairly solid evidence to prove otherwise, and I don't think a few suspicious comments is enough to override the possibility of him being the Insomniac. I would be in favour of keeping him around for at least the first night to see what he comes up with.
Sure if you're a wolf then you might roleclaim to survive, but that's exactly what an aux would do too. Roleclaiming doesn't prove anything, but it does add more risk - with any other player you are either taking out a wolf, aux or civilian. If the lynchee is a civilian, then sure it's not good, but it's a much better alternative than taking out an aux. But with a roleclaim, the possibility of him being a civilian is eliminated so it's a much riskier move.nardi11011 wrote:
But what's the possibility of him being the Insomniac? If you're a wolf and you're close to getting lynched, why wouldn't you role claim to try and survive? Personally I'd say a role claim doesn't really matter unless it's a role that can be proved somehow; even if we keep him alive for the night, he could just say "Rolled is a wolf" or "Two is a wolf" or something like that tomorrow to cast suspicion onto them, but whether he's telling the truth or not there's still not really any reason to believe him. So then we'll have to lynch someone else today who could just as well have an aux role, or at least be human. And since there's not really anyone else that's suspicious, there's not much choice right now.
But the day still isn't over yet!
. I think the longer one has an idea in their head that someone is a wolf, the less likely they'll be to change that opinion. So the people who have been attacking him for hours beforehand would naturally be more skeptical of his claim (The fact some of the players here have already played a game with an Insomniac-claiming wolf probably adds some bias as well). Now when I first checked the thread yesterday afternoon, NoHItter's initial attack had already occurred, as well as his roleclaim, so I pretty much received all the information at once. So the idea of "NoHItter = wolf" didn't have as much time to sink in by the time I read his roleclaim, which I believe is why I would be more inclined to believe it (or at least take it seriously) than the other players who have been suspicious of him longer. I'm not opposed to lynching NoHItter, I'm just saying we should do it tomorrow instead of today. If he's a wolf then it won't matter; a lynched wolf today is worth the same as a lynched wolf tomorrow. If he's the Insomniac however, then lynching him tonight would be a waste. I really don't see the downside of waiting till tomorrow.Two wrote:
You talk about keeping him around but what that really means is lynching someone instead of him. So who is more likely to be a wolf than him?
He double speaks about his motivations and doubts, and he lies about things like his relationship with jockeytiyan. He can't be trusted in general, so betting on him telling the truth is a waste of a possibly critical lynch.
That's why we are all just going to have to agree that we ARE going to lynch him tomorrow. The morning of Day 2, everyone votes for him. That day would then be used for discussion, just like if the Unknown Celebrity died.Two wrote:
There is a difference between today and tomorrow that I'm sure you are well aware of: the number of players. We may have more than enough people willing to lynch him today, but if two humans die day 1 and he's alive day 2 (with 5 more days for him to talk his way out of it) it may not be possible to lynch him again.
He may be the most likely to be a wolf, but he's also the most likely to be an aux. Lets say there are 7 auxes and 5 wolves this game. This means that from the beginning, before any discussion, each player has a 37% chance of being a civilian, 37% chance of being an aux and 26% chance of being a wolf. Now NoHItter has eliminated the possibility of him being a civilian, so cold math says he now has a 59% chance of being an aux, and a 41% chance of being a wolf. Now obviously there is un-quantifiable information that's also weighing like his behaviour and what he says, but I really don't think there is enough evidence going against him that would take down that mathematical 59% aux chance to a sufficiently low level.Two wrote:
You also haven't said who is more likely to be a wolf than him. If there's no one then I don't see why you are even talking about this
I'm a wolf for trying to keep the game fair by telling the all-knowing host not to partake in discussion. Okay.Two wrote:
unless you are a wolf yourself, which you are
Actually, seeing as we would all be agreeing to lynch NoHItter tomorrow, they could very well keep him around.DJ KRZY wrote:
IF NoHItter is not a wolf, it is most probable that he will be killed by the wolves on the first night.
No he hasn't. He could simply be a civillian trying to save his own skin by roleclaiming.0_o wrote:
Now NoHItter has eliminated the possibility of him being a civilian,
0_ o is a wolf trying to save his wolf buddy NoHItter.DiamondCrash wrote:
No he hasn't. He could simply be a civillian trying to save his own skin by roleclaiming.0_o wrote:
Now NoHItter has eliminated the possibility of him being a civilian,
0_o wrote:
Actually, seeing as we would all be agreeing to lynch NoHItter tomorrow, they could very well keep him around.DJ KRZY wrote:
IF NoHItter is not a wolf, it is most probable that he will be killed by the wolves on the first night.
Still, if NoHItter is a wolf, we get rid of him pretty soon if he doesn't start naming his buddies. Not a big loss, is it?strager wrote:
(And of course DJ KRZY is falling for the trap.)
Rolefishing.DJ KRZY wrote:
Not really, if NoHItter is an insomniac, survives the first night, and keeps giving names of wolves, it's to our immense advantage. We have the Seer to confirm if he's giving the names of wolves, so if the Seer uncovers himself, the wolves better kill NoHItter asap.
Civilians should never ever ever ever ever claim aux unless the real aux is in on it.DiamondCrash wrote:
No he hasn't. He could simply be a civillian trying to save his own skin by roleclaiming.0_o wrote:
Now NoHItter has eliminated the possibility of him being a civilian,
0_o wrote:
Civilians should never ever ever ever ever claim aux unless the real aux is in on it.
0_o wrote:
should
/me looks at strager's first game.DiamondCrash wrote:
0_o wrote:
Civilians should never ever ever ever ever claim aux unless the real aux is in on it.0_o wrote:
should
Because Beatrice jumped on the bandwagon giving no explicit reason?strager wrote:
@ pieguy1372, jockeytiyan, DJ KRZY:
Why aren't you all voting for dkun instead of Oyashiro Beatrice? Is there a reason which makes Oyashiro Beatrice a better vote than dkun?
So did dkun, but he deleted his post when he likely realized he'd be bashed for doing so.NoHItter wrote:
Because Beatrice jumped on the bandwagon giving no explicit reason?strager wrote:
@ pieguy1372, jockeytiyan, DJ KRZY:
Why aren't you all voting for dkun instead of Oyashiro Beatrice? Is there a reason which makes Oyashiro Beatrice a better vote than dkun?
Also Unvote. Vote: Oyashiro Beatrice
For the same reasons statedabovebefore.
I like how you just now hop on the bandwagon instead of doing it when that evidence was already plain and presented (and even after you didn't get the response you wanted from Two). Maybe I'm missing something, but ...NoHItter wrote:
Because Beatrice jumped on the bandwagon giving no explicit reason?strager wrote:
@ pieguy1372, jockeytiyan, DJ KRZY:
Why aren't you all voting for dkun instead of Oyashiro Beatrice? Is there a reason which makes Oyashiro Beatrice a better vote than dkun?
Also Unvote. Vote: Oyashiro Beatrice
For the same reasons statedabovebefore.
fix'dNoHItter wrote:
Because Beatrice jumped on the bandwagon giving no explicit reason?strager wrote:
@ pieguy1372, jockeytiyan, DJ KRZY:
Why aren't you all voting for dkun instead of Oyashiro Beatrice? Is there a reason which makes Oyashiro Beatrice a better vote than dkun?
Also Unvote. Vote: Oyashiro Beatrice
Because he has the second most votes.
[17:22] <Ace|Host> Far's I know the Status is up to date, so I'm happy.Now I know this could very well not mean anything, but it is possible that Ace may have slipped up here. I went afk for a bit after this, but Ace didn't respond to DC and I, and nobody said anything about it after the end of the above log.
[17:22] <Blackthorne> Oh look new vote just came in, AHAHA i keed i keed.
[17:22] <DiamondCrash> Good good
[17:23] <Ace|Host> Unless a bunch of people change their votes, new votes probably won't matter much/at all anyway.
[17:24] <DiamondCrash> I should think that is going to happen Ace
[17:24] <Ace|Host> Why do you say that?
[17:24] <DiamondCrash> Keeping NoHitter alive is more valuble than dead at the moment
[17:24] <Blackthorne> Unless someone pulls an immense amount of stupid out of there ass, NoHItter is screwed.
[17:25] <faceman> there's still 2 more days till the day ends
[17:25] <Ace|Host> Sadly, I agree with Blackthorne.
[17:25] <DiamondCrash> "Sadly", Ace?
[17:25] <Ace|Host> Mass votechanges do NOT happen easily.
[17:26] <DiamondCrash> Do elaborate
[17:26] <faceman> ^ @DC
[17:26] <faceman> ^ @DCnow you want ace to elaborate, huh?
I just wanted to know if I was missing something. My first thought was that Ace had slipped, but I wasn't sure if I was simply taking it out of context somehow.Two wrote:
[17:26] <faceman> ^ @DCnow you want ace to elaborate, huh?
You're making an assumption. I wanted time to think, if you can even read the post that I made after.strager wrote:
So did dkun, but he deleted his post when he likely realized he'd be bashed for doing so.
(Not entirely seriously saying that they're wolves before you even start...)Ace Of Hearts wrote:
7 votes: NoHItter