BRBP wrote:

Apparently pieguy managed to ninja me as well.

I don't really know why you're trying to guess my role when most of us has decided it's best if it's not known.
The only thing you're helping with that is scum, because if town wanted to know, I could just say it.

Well, mafia could come up with the same kind of reasoning I did anyway. Also my bad, I must have missed the part where everyone decided that was best >< that's what I get I guess when I have to read the whole thread at once

I doubt a watcher and a tracker are in the same game (if we're going to go by the complimentary roles). I'm going to go out on a limb here and say Pieguy is less likely to be scum than town just because Hika wasn't in immediate danger + did actually leave the game.


Outside that though, I honestly have no reads on anyone, just a ton of gut feelings (which in my opinion is close to worthless, sorry Pieguy )

@Mod - BRBP didn't replace me (ISO)

Ops, fixed, thanks!

- Sakura

Nice wall of text there, pieguy. You bring a lot of good arguments there. I must agree that Dake only 'goes with the flow' of the current actions, dropping by and saying only what he's 'supposed' to say. Such playstyle doesn't bring much attention, yet turns out scum in a lot of games.

I don't agree with rEdo though. It's his first game, indeed, but it doesn't justify anything. I know him and he played Mafia before (an offline one), so he's not as unexperienced in it as you think.

I also don't see a point with revealing BRBP's PR at the moment, unless we wanted to plan our night actions, but it still wages better to scum than Town.

Also your argument about the specified PRs is invalid. The game COULD have PRs identically opposed to the Mafia ones, but it's also possible other ones were randomized. It's not an Open or Semi-Open setup, it's a closed one (however we made it an open-like by massclaiming), the list of potential PRs for Town wasn't revealed (but it's obvious the PRs opposed to the mafia's have a higher chance of appearing in game).

Welcome pieguy, I didn't know that trying to catch up with the game is suspicious, I could post every time of what makes me unable to actively post, but that's quite useless and it'd break the essence of the game imo.

I'd put my thoughts here, if Hika continued here, if you want to know it I can tell you but it's not as applyable as before, or maybe it can, I really don't know until I get a better read from pieguy.

Guessing BRBP's role won't lead to anything good for town, he should stay as that, when he gets/does something important, then he just have to spit it out. Also I'm curious how you read NH as his plan is clearly anti-town, not saying scum as there's nothing confirmed, in exchange of getting confirmed towns and possible scum, we served some tasty PRs for them in a silver plate.

@fartownik: I wasn't saying for sure that that's what it was, just something it might possibly be

@DakeDekaane: it's not just that, it's that your posts don't really have anything in them. It's just you always seem to go along with what everyone else does.

Why hello there, pieguy. When it's about my Mafia experience, I played it like twice, and these games were like a year or two years ago, so I don't remember almost anything of them :­P

Anyway, like everybody else said, BRBP should hide his profession as it is right now, since in this situation it'll just give the scum even more information, while we gain almost nothing in exchange. And my eye still looks at NoHitter, that high activity of his seems way too suspicious to me. A lot of activity implies trying to cover himself, and I'll stay with that idea of mine.

When it's about the other players, I haven't been paying that much attention, so I'll restrain from stating my opinion - let's see how the situation advances.

My posts do have something there, they aren't that empty as you think, read again and you'll find it out, I'm not surprised you say that as almost everytime it seems like everybody read the half of what I write, unless I'm bad explaining myself :p

Unvote
I'm willing to trust pieguy here. Not to mention that his post is opposite of what I remember him doing as scum (meta).

rEdo wrote:

And my eye still looks at NoHitter, that high activity of his seems way too suspicious to me. A lot of activity implies trying to cover himself, and I'll stay with that idea of mine.

I'm always active in my games?

And regarding my plan:
I understand that my plan with revealing townie PRs was a risk, but the reward of it was greater than the risk.
I believe I posted the numbers earlier, but even when we had only three confirmed PRs even if the PRs were with the Masons, we had a 33% chance of lynching scum today. That's a HUGE chance for Day 1.
Now assuming Hika is really a JK, that gives us (5-3-4) (conf - scum - town). Now we have a 3/7 chance or 42.8% chance of lynching scum today.
Maybe you guys are the type to rely on PRs more than scumhunting and lynching? IDK, but those odds for lynching scum are GREAT.

Re: Traitor
(WIFOM AHEAD) If you read above statements: exchanging PR info for a higher chance of being lynched is a bad move for scum.
Well that being said, if I do get lynched because of it, it's just a consequence of my plan. (being unconfirmed and all)

Vote: rEdo
For earlier specified reasons. I'm sticking with my reads this game.

@ Dake
Earlier you said my tactic allowed for voting scum by PoE and therefore I looked town, but now you're saying that my plan is anti-town. Why the flip-flop?

@NH: Your plan is anti-town for the facts I've stated, that it allows voting scum by PoE doesn't change it, it's like a double-edged sword. There's no flip-flop at all.

No, you said he was leaning town here: p/2394498/
And then you said you were curious of pieguy's town read here: p/2396280/ which means you are questioning that town read.

The massclaim is a double edged sword, but you clearly flipped between focusing on the different sides of it in these two posts

Please let me know if you see any mistakes

hm, NH, you already executed the plan, so you dying wouldn't change too much, wouldn't it? defending yourself with this much effort seems kinda icky. of course you normally don't want to die, but you still get the win if you die and town succeeds.

also you have no PR, so you dying is (basically) no biggie. and you opposed RB shooting someone in N1. but why would you do that? your great odds of 3/7 would swing to 3/5, if we shoot and lynch unsuccessfully, over 50%, and we still could hit scum with the lynch AND/or the shoot of RB, which would leave us with one/two scum. there is basically no pro-town reason for not shooting in N1.

why would you suggest something like this after your "superprotown" massclaim strategy?

I hope my "I only slept 5 hours yay" reads aren't too messed up

oh man they are messed up so bad...

still, NH wasn't too sure at first about shooting in Night 1. but it's basically not enough for an accusation :/

don't mind that part of the post.

Tanzklaue wrote:

hm, NH, you already executed the plan, so you dying wouldn't change too much, wouldn't it? defending yourself with this much effort seems kinda icky. of course you normally don't want to die, but you still get the win if you die and town succeeds.

also you have no PR, so you dying is (basically) no biggie. and you opposed RB shooting someone in N1. but why would you do that? your great odds of 3/7 would swing to 3/5, if we shoot and lynch unsuccessfully, over 50%, and we still could hit scum with the lynch AND/or the shoot of RB, which would leave us with one/two scum. there is basically no pro-town reason for not shooting in N1.

why would you suggest something like this after your "superprotown" massclaim strategy?

I hope my "I only slept 5 hours yay" reads aren't too messed up

Because I am town, and lynching a townie would be a wasted lynch. That's why I'm defending myself.

And regarding the shooting, it's a precaution I thought of with the old information from before.
Back then when we thought we had only 3 PR, the stats were 3-3-6. If we lynch incorrectly, we get 3-3-5.
Mafia would NK a confirmed town -> 2-3-5. There's now a 3/8 chance only for hitting mafia.
If in the case RB hits a townie, we would reach 2-3-4. Mafia would control half the votes in that situation.

Now though with 5 confirmed townies, the stats are different. 5-3-4 if we lynch incorrectly -> 5-3-3
It's now a 50% chance which I would accept.

What.

Now assuming Hika is really a JK, that gives us (5-3-4) (conf - scum - town)

So basically you're saying if we assume they're town, they're confirmed town. Might I be able to suggest that we have a little flaw in that?

Actually, who came up with the idea that having reciprocal town PR's was something that made a claim more believable?

Because how do you 'counter' a JOAT or daychat? I'm willing to bet that our PR's are randomly pooled and not chosen to counter other roles.

Rantai wrote:

Actually, who came up with the idea that having reciprocal town PR's was something that made a claim more believable?

Because how do you 'counter' a JOAT or daychat? I'm willing to bet that our PR's are randomly pooled and not chosen to counter other roles.

My idea was that scum PRs were made to counter the existing town PRs. That's why Watcher and Vig were confirmed for me since they would be countered by Bulletproof and Ninja.

Rantai wrote:

So basically you're saying if we assume they're town, they're confirmed town. Might I be able to suggest that we have a little flaw in that?

What I meant by that was that assuming Hika was a Jailkeeper, *insert statistics computation here*.

NoHitter wrote:

Rantai wrote:

So basically you're saying if we assume they're town, they're confirmed town. Might I be able to suggest that we have a little flaw in that?

What I meant by that was that assuming Hika was a Jailkeeper, *insert statistics computation here*.

but what if hika/pieguy isn't town? or if fart or RB lied?

basically, our masons are the only real confirmed town people for town. the other 3? we can't say that they are confirmed, because they might have lied to us. basically, we have three people who might be town, and nobody but the PRs themselves can find out if there is scum amongst them, because we vanilla townies will have a hard time setting a train up if we suspect one of them, as we are the scumsuspects.

on the other hand, scum of course has up to 4 primary targets, those being our PRs that are not only masons (as shooting a mason after them claiming is not that much more useful as shooting a vanilla townie).

what also caught my suspcion is the way you enlisted the roles. like 5-3-4, being confirmed townie, scum and unconfirmed townie respectively. but technically, we as town don't know the difference between scum and unconfirmed town, so basically we are all "unconfirmed". the list would probably look more like 2-3-7, those being confirmed towns, possible PRs and completly unknown people. amongst these unknown people, there could be all 3 scums, or just 2. amongst the possible PRs there could be 1 scum hiding (or 2, if they are really WIFOMy). basically, we can't say almost nothing for certain. the only certain townies are Rantai and BRBP, while RB, fart and pieguy are just people who claim to be PRs, but not necessarily have to be that.

if we break it all down, the massclaim gave us two confirmed townies, while scum got the full information they could possibly need. heck, if they picked rolecop then they will be angry because they could've used that pick for something actually useful. the massclaim didn't bring town nearly as much information as you, NH, and Jinxy said it would. why? because most of it is build on the assumption that nobody lied. and with one townliar, we can already say that this isn't the case anymore.

this whole thing caused a lot of WIFOM, and only very few actual benefits. we also could have gotten the two masons to claim anyway without revealing all of our PRs and we would be practically in the same spot informationwise, but with a lot less WIFOM.

*coughs* The thing is - if we don't have any leads, it's the safest to rely on the probability (unless someone has some crazy gut feelings that everyone respect and are always truth, but it's really rare). NoHitter's tactic has clarified all these probabilities, giving us the information who COULD be scum the most in the first order, but obviously not who IS scum at the moment. Such raise of probability of hitting scum in D1 is pretty good, especially when it's usually just RVS and nothing much besides gut feelings. You're of course right that the PRs are not confirmed Town, but the probability of them lying is less than the probability of scum hiding in the non-PRs. It's obviously everyone's personal call if they want to rely on probability or gut feelings, but I'd just like to point that out.

@Jinxy: In the first post I also put the reasones why they weren't likely to be town and possibly scum, I noticed I chose bad words after that, but forgot to explain it later.

Now, I'll put this, this were my thoughts that I didn't post previously and I came to the same conclusions now. Some of us are still wary about NH, and some voted him, now what can we get if there's a NH lynch?
If he flips scum, then there is at least 1 scum in the claimed PR, as he's no far of saying they're confirmed town, and I'm still in doubt about that JK claim.
If he flips town, then there's still the possibility of what I put above, but it's minimal, and we still have a great chance of hitting scum in D2 based on our Night Actions and finding a liar in them, if there's one.

Of course lynching a townie is risky, but if we can get more from that lynch, at least I think it'd be better that going in just suppositions and probability, I don't know what you think.

Also NH, why you say in the 2-3-5 scenario mafia control half of the votes?, with 10, it requires 6 to hammer, and mafia still would need to convince at least 3 other people (or 4 in case they didn't recruit the Traitor) and we have 3/7 of hitting scum, higher than 3/8, if we talk about probability, which itself is bad imo.

It's very stupid for scum to claim vigilante because of how there WILL BE 2 NKs if the vigilante keep saying he will shoot. The only thing is if mafia kills the same person as me, but that is really stupid since that gives town even more of an advantage by having 1 less death.

And I'm also suspicious of NH too, but I feel like him not defending himself as much is giving me a town read on him. Mafia would probably keep doing their best to try to get votes off him.

IMO, what NH did is better than just leaving us all sitting here in the dark. Even if it doesn't seem like it now, I'm sure all the information (reactions, posting habits etc.) we got D1 could prove to be even more useful in the future.

Also, keep in mind that at least two of the claimed PRs will be confirmed (BRBP cause he's a mason and RB because if we'll have 2 NK's tonight he's telling the truth), so the only possible liar is fartownik (and me, but I know I'm town). Either way, I think it'd be best for information's sake to assume all the claimed PRs are town.

If nohitter is town, shooting rEdo

if nohitter is scum, shooting Jinxy.

I'm a bad vigilante, just saying. Unless you guys have a better target.

wait, so NH dying is part of the plan? Sorry, I must have overlooked where you all agreed on that ><

No but looks like no one wants to unvote

pieguy1372 wrote:

mod: if no hammer is reached, is it a majority lynch or a no-lynch?
if it's a no-lynch, unvote & vote: NH to get the game moving

It is stated in the rules that if deadline is reached and no majority was reached then no-lynch will happen, to lynch, someone must be hammered before the deadline.

Wait what

man you should bold that stuff

Well, I don't really think anyone else is going to get suggested for lynch considering the short time left, but before that,

Raging Bull wrote:

if nohitter is scum, shooting Jinxy.

Could you explain your reasoning for this?

Because somehow I feel like you guys can be working together since you also went along with the plan.

Sakura wrote:

pieguy1372 wrote:

mod: if no hammer is reached, is it a majority lynch or a no-lynch?
if it's a no-lynch, unvote & vote: NH to get the game moving

It is stated in the rules that if deadline is reached and no majority was reached then no-lynch will happen, to lynch, someone must be hammered before the deadline.

oh, sorry ><
vote: NH

Raging Bull wrote:

It's very stupid for scum to claim vigilante because of how there WILL BE 2 NKs if the vigilante keep saying he will shoot. The only thing is if mafia kills the same person as me, but that is really stupid since that gives town even more of an advantage by having 1 less death.

Raging Bull wrote:

If nohitter is town, shooting rEdo

if nohitter is scum, shooting Jinxy.

"Oh look only 1 person died, therefore RB is not a vig. Get your pitchforks everyone, we're having roasted beef tonight."

If RB is actually town, that would be a loss of 3 towns in the worst case scenario (Hitter day 1 lynch, rEdo vig/mafia kill, RB day 2 lynch). Not very advantageous for us as we waste 2 lynches and lose a vig. Best case scenario is that NH is scum and Jinxy is scum but I think that's a little easy.

Let's just say I don't like how this might end.

lynching someone D1 is always way better than not lynching anyone IMO. I wouldn't like at all to vote NH, but it doesn't seem like anyone else will get lynched this late. >_<//

I'm going to keep my vote on who I think is scum.

Mod: Please change the rule to allow non-majority lynches. With the way the forum is with all the inactivity, we're essentially going to get no-lynch all the time. Not fair for town.

Hmm though.

4 PR's - 1 confirmed, 3 unconfirmed (1 town, 2 null).

I'm sort of interested in how NH flips actually because if they have daychat (and NH is scum), then the amount of PR claims we have coincides with a possible fake PR claim. Also would consolidate why Hitter would propose that roles were made to counter other roles (ie easy mafia fake claim).

Which is kind of bad actually because if the mafia simply decide to shoot vanilla's instead of PR's then we'd be wasting our time trying to determine who is a legit PR and who isn't.

If he's town... that was a very naive conclusion to make. I'm just a little skeptical that the host would make it that easy to confirm people.

Rantai wrote:

"Oh look only 1 person died, therefore RB is not a vig. Get your pitchforks everyone, we're having roasted beef tonight."

Can I just shoot you instead?

Oh yeah; Vote: NoHitter

Raging Bull wrote:

Rantai wrote:

"Oh look only 1 person died, therefore RB is not a vig. Get your pitchforks everyone, we're having roasted beef tonight."

Can I just shoot you instead?

I couldn't resist ;__________;

I'm still certain that NH is town, being so calm close to lynch. So I'm more suspicious of the current non PR votes on him.