...posting what you think != asking questions whose answers are easily inferred by doing five seconds of reading.

Also I like your attempts to shift the focus from yourself, first onto other lurkers and then onto the watcher.

---

Lybydose's plans make sense I guess. There's no provision for who to lynch today, though. My proposal should be pretty clear.

Oh right, in the situation that we go with Plan A, no one except the watcher claim yet. It's best if we specify a claiming order after the names are revealed.

Oh right because obviously having a whole different type of mafia game = understading all the aspects within an fast. I never even heard of the watcher role until reading the mafiascum wiki. I also like how you are so focused on me too. I gave you my defense. You can believe it if you will. At least I actually do post in this thread.

Wassup, guys?

Votecount:

Raging Bull (1) - akrolsmir
Salvage (1) - Rantai

Sorry I didn't write up D2's death scene. It's still pretty cool though.

lybydose's plans make sense. I prefer Plan B since it would show less roles to the mafia. It's a lot riskier, though, since there's a chance for it to fail.

I'd rather go with the first plan.

Accepting Rantai's assumption that there are four Mafia members, I think we can sacrifice one of the better auxes for a certain Mafia reveal. That'd be huge. I also trust Lyby to perform his trick N2, so for now I would like the watcher to claim and give us info.

so Lyby in what order do you suggest we roleclaim? Plan B sucks because the fact that Two got killed instead of being able to drive himself and a target seems to heavily imply that we got a roleblocker around. If any of the people don't show up in the list (or worse the people watching the target get blocked) we're pretty much screwed having no information other than possibly having boosted a mafia member.

You should be careful with how you throw those motivations around.

Wait, wouldn't the roleblock have been seen from KRZY's voyeuring?

maybe he is a MAFIA WATCHER!!!!!!!

good point, nvm then.

Posting, just so it doesent seen like im lurking. I just dont have much to say. Not especially sure what you guys are really suggesting...then ahain I should prpbably just look up to see what a watcher does and it might make sense.

Oh nevermind. I got it ;w;

Wojjan wrote:

so Lyby in what order do you suggest we roleclaim? Plan B sucks because the fact that Two got killed instead of being able to drive himself and a target seems to heavily imply that we got a roleblocker around. If any of the people don't show up in the list (or worse the people watching the target get blocked) we're pretty much screwed having no information other than possibly having boosted a mafia member.

You should be careful with how you throw those motivations around.

Watcher first, then ask the others to claim one at a time rather than all at once. The order isn't so important.

JInxyjem wrote:

Wait, wouldn't the roleblock have been seen from KRZY's voyeuring?

Right, KRZY would be able to detect the missing person. If KRZY were blocked there would be no missing person as the block was already used. The biggest problem with plan B is if the mafia just decides to kill our target too. Then we learn nothing and wasted a bunch of time.

Plan A seems like the safer one to me , we already did a risky one D1 , not an option to do it again imo.

First off, wtf was Two's plan? I don't understand why he would try to bring Mashley down with him on a fake claim

I don't feel like exposing the Watcher is that great of an idea, because after they get NK'd we lose one of the important puzzle pieces.

Everyone who claims behind them is just going to get picked off one by one, and eventually there will be nobody left.

They should wait and gather more information before outright claiming, at least then we have a chance to catch more than a single Mafia member based on what they say.

And what if they actually did get NK without telling us anything? Wouldn't that have been a waste?

Of course it would, but they're going to die regardless if they roleclaim.

Scenario 1:

Everyone involved roleclaims, they die every consecutive night until they're all dead.

Possibly lynch a town player hunting for Mafia - 50/50 chance.

Probably lynch a town player every day consecutively.

Scenario 2:

No one roleclaims, someone gets lynched/mafia kill a person tonight.

With 14 people, assuming there are 3 mafia left, that's 11 people they have to pick from. I doubt they're gonna pinpoint the Watcher in one night.

Roleclaim on D3 with possibly two Mafia names, and then use process of elimination to kill the last one off.

The only problem is guessing who's going to die.

But then you have to hope the watcher targets who the mafia targets or he's basically completely useless too.

Unless you meant that with - The only problem is guessing who's going to die.

Rantai wrote:

But then you have to hope the watcher targets who the mafia targets or he's basically completely useless too.

Unless you meant that with - The only problem is guessing who's going to die.

yeah

we have a Voyeur/Watcher/Tracker, all of them help increase the chances of figuring out who did what

if they all targeted different people (especially if the Tracker) it would be more wide spread on the information we gather.

that's basically 3 chances for town, 1 for mafia

makes sense to me

Then again it's 3 people we won't mislynch giving us a greater chance to lynch a mafia, we won't have a chance to lose that information, we will probably get rid of another mafia (bringing the count to 2) and we will still have at least 1 of their information (which is luck based from here on in) for the next 2-3 days. Not to mention the other roles we may have.

Overall it seems the good outweighs the bad.

Rantai wrote:

Then again it's 3 people we won't mislynch giving us a greater chance to lynch a mafia, we won't have a chance to lose that information, we will probably get rid of another mafia (bringing the count to 2) and we will still have at least 1 of their information (which is luck based from here on in) for the next 2-3 days. Not to mention the other roles we may have.

Overall it seems the good outweighs the bad.

There is definitely a chance for a mislynch given option 1, you're pretty much guaranteed to kill one town to figure out who the mafia is.

If the Watcher does decide to claim it's just going to end badly, after you kill the mafia (today, but possibly tomorrow after lynching a roleclaimed town on accident), Watcher will die, then whoever else claimed the day after.

Is it really worth killing 3 town for 1 mafia? After they're all dead we'll have nothing to go on and we'll be back at D1.

What state will we be in when we've lost another 2-4 town (assuming mislynchs, after 2 days)?

We'll be holding on to the hope that our informative roles don't get lynched or night killed.

As long as the mislynches aren't Watcher/Voyeur/Tracker we're always gonna be better off killing off other people. They are the most important roles in the game right now, and after they are gone we have absolutely nothing.

4 town for 2
3 town for 1

and even so, if they roleclaim tomorrow it's still possible to get 3-2 assuming we get the lynch right. (and one of the 3 watcher roles hits the NK target)

I just can't agree, it's far too dependent on luck.

Rantai wrote:

I just can't agree, it's far too dependent on luck.

After we kill the mafia member, what is your plan after that?

Unless someone has an awesome role and didn't target Two last night, pretty sure it's just going to be mislynch NK mislynch NK every day/night period.

The hope here is that either; we have more than just those 3 auxs for information and we work on that or we use what information we can get before they die (chances are one of them will get some more information seeing as they already know who is going to be targeted by a mafia) and mount the lynches off that.

My question is what are we going to do if our auxs get lynched or night killed?

Rantai wrote:

The hope here is that either; we have more than just those 3 auxs for information and we work on that or we use what information we can get before they die (chances are one of them will get some more information seeing as they already know who is going to be targeted by a mafia) and mount the lynches off that.

My question is what are we going to do if our auxs get lynched or night killed?

Obviously if a Watcher is about to get lynched he would roleclaim, just like anybody else. It's not like I'm telling them to just be quiet and don't say anything even when you're being voted for, just don't claim when you hardly have any information.

They are going to be night killed a lot sooner if they claim today than if they didn't, so I don't get what you're saying.

Ok, fair enough on the lynch part.

What I'm trying to get at is if the watcher is NK'd tonight, we've just been shot in the foot with no information taken. I don't really like luck based plans.

I think this is a case of guaranteed information vs a potential for more.

If the watcher claims now and gives all the information it's 100% NK'ed next night , if he tries to stay quiet and get even more information that could be really usefull D3 or even D4 chances of him being killed are not big at all , and it could be more usefull .. yeah i think that's a better plan that the previous one.

I'd like some more input on this.

Rolled, you've been quiet since N1. Any thoughts?

Yep.

Hoping they get the right targets.

Hoping they live through the night.

It's down to if you are willing to take the risk of losing it all for more.

It's not really a hope if they live through the night, it's a 1 in 11 chance they get killed.

the second part yeah, but there is 3 different people.

besides themselves it'd bring the number down to 8, and if they each picked a different person that'd be 5 people left out. Not to mention if the Tracker hits a Mafia and they target someone that night, and that person dies it's a confirmed Mafia right off the bat.

technically you could confirm 2 mafia in 1 night on top of the one from N1

that's pretty much game

KRZY wrote:

Rolled, you've been quiet since N1.

If I had anything to add or suggest with the plans, I would. But having to refer to mafiawiki every time I want to distinguish between voyeur, watcher, and tracker is annoying. Confusing setup.

Can't get too into the game right now for some reason, hopefully that changes later tonight so I can contribute.

By the way, as hypocritical as this sounds, I think Kiddo ragequit mafia in general so prod him if I may. Let's get him replaced sooner rather than later if that's the case.

ib kiddo is the watcher

also Chris I have no idea where you're pulling these numbers from. There are 14 players alive, not 11.

1 in 11 townies, unless mafia want to tactically night kill?

or just not kill at all, which would be hilarious

actually so in that case it would be 3 in 11, but we already know KRZY is the voyeur (which can't really determine any useful information on its own), so it's more like a 2 in 10 chance of the tracker or watcher dying.

Rolled wrote:

I think Kiddo ragequit mafia in general so prod him if I may. Let's get him replaced sooner rather than later if that's the case.

I can't because Day 2 hasn't lasted 24 hours. Once it has I'll prod him if he hasn't posted.

I'd prefer plan A because I've got some confilicting information from KRZY's results and I'd kinda like to know what the heck is going on.

oh really

Lybydose wrote:

oh really

Ya rly.

Lynching one maf isn't such an accomplishment that it's worth outing three auxes. I think the information from revealing would be more beneficial to scum at this point. Also if we wait, when we finally use the info to lynch the scum we will have more information about them and their likely scumbuddies.

Though really it's up to the watcher to choose. We should move on under the assumption that the watcher wants to stay hidden until s/he reveals. In other words, Plan B for now.

Meanwhile, vote for someone you think is scum. Preferably Raging Bull.

akrolsmir wrote:

Lynching one maf isn't such an accomplishment that it's worth outing three auxes. I think the information from revealing would be more beneficial to scum at this point. Also if we wait, when we finally use the info to lynch the scum we will have more information about them and their likely scumbuddies.

Though really it's up to the watcher to choose. We should move on under the assumption that the watcher wants to stay hidden until s/he reveals. In other words, Plan B for now.

Meanwhile, vote for someone you think is scum. Preferably Raging Bull.

You see, the information I have points to KRZY lying, unless this game is even more oddly set up than it already is.

That is why I'd prefer plan A.

LadySuburu wrote:

akrolsmir wrote:

Lynching one maf isn't such an accomplishment that it's worth outing three auxes. I think the information from revealing would be more beneficial to scum at this point. Also if we wait, when we finally use the info to lynch the scum we will have more information about them and their likely scumbuddies.

Though really it's up to the watcher to choose. We should move on under the assumption that the watcher wants to stay hidden until s/he reveals. In other words, Plan B for now.

Meanwhile, vote for someone you think is scum. Preferably Raging Bull.

You see, the information I have points to KRZY lying, unless this game is even more oddly set up than it already is.

That is why I'd prefer plan A.

Uh, I did not lie.

I'd like some elaboration on your claim, or is it too dangerous to do so?

KRZY wrote:

Uh, I did not lie.

I'd like some elaboration on your claim, or is it too dangerous to do so?

I can elaborate, but it would require two or more claims.

What do you mean unless?

I don't understand how it can be one or the other

you either do or don't

LadySuburu wrote:

I can elaborate, but it would require two or more claims.

To specify, role claims.

LS, how did you get your information? I'm not saying to claim, but did you get it by investigating KRZY or something?

Actually I'll be more generic. Did you target KRZY?

Lybydose wrote:

LS, how did you get your information? I'm not saying to claim, but did you get it by investigating KRZY or something?

Revealing how I got it requires me to claim as I've mentioned.

Lybydose wrote:

Actually I'll be more generic. Did you target KRZY?

I did not.

I think I prefer plan B. It seems like a classic case of risk vs reward. We could get those from KRZY's report to role claim now and get 50/50 chance to lynch or we could wait few days to get better results. Although I'm rather curious what report LS has that conflicts with KRZYs ._.


And what's scum anyways?

Raging Bull wrote:

And what's scum anyways?

Anti-Town

Vote: Kiddo-kun.

Haven't said anything yet since day 2.

Gah.

Vote: Kiddo-Kun

I think he said he quitted mafia , not worth a lynch imo.

also



FoS : Raging Bull

He did? Where did he say he quit Mafia?

He told me on osu after WWV and to some others also , and dropped out from Video game theme mafia.



I'd suggest a replacement for him asap.


Mod?

We have recognised this.

Looking for a replacement now.

Oh yeah. Forgot to say something here.
Yeah I'm out.

Try DxS, I believe he expressed an interest when the game was getting started.

akrolsmir wrote:

Try DxS, I believe he expressed an interest when the game was getting started.

I second this

DeathxShinigami replaces Kiddo-kun

Votecount:

Raging Bull (1) - akrolsmir
Salvage (1) - Rantai
Kiddo-kun DeathxShinigami (1) - Raging Bull

OH HELLO. Catching up from my very first post. Ho hum...give me til the morning.

DeathxShinigami wrote:

OH HELLO. Catching up from my very first post. Ho hum...give me til the morning.

Yeah take your time, and welcome :D

Oh hai DxS.

Chris you seem to imply that we will never mynch scum ever ever ever in our entire game. "mislynch NK mislynch NK"

LS claim already and stop rolefishing

Wojjan wrote:

Chris you seem to imply that we will never mynch scum ever ever ever in our entire game. "mislynch NK mislynch NK"

LS claim already and stop rolefishing

I was half-told not to claim, but now I'm bored and everyone's being quiet. I fully intend to vote KRZY unless I get a good enough explanation for the conflicting results.

Here's the two claims required to explain my conflicting results.


Claim: Cirno

Abilities:

1: Confirmed Masonry. Both me and my mason partner Rolled (Daiyousei) were both told that the other is confirmed town. Each night we may speak to each other via PM or other communications means. There is nothing against claiming in my role PM, and stated my intentions to the mods well before the situation even came up for me to claim.

2. Rolled has no special secondary ability. I have a flavor-based ability. Each night, I'm allowed to choose one person to attempt to kill. However, this ability has a 9% chance to work.


-------------------------

Reason why I suspect KRZY to be lying:

Last night, Rolled was motivated. This caused us to be able to communicate during the day today. I highly doubt the existance of two motivators, and without a watcher claim I strongly believe he is lying.

Oh hmmm.

So basically if a watcher doesn't claim then it's most likely that KRZY made it up?

god damnit LS you ruin everything. Now I have to claim the specifics of my motivation >:(

sup y'all Kanako Yasaka here, goddess who is pretty big on this whole faith thing and can help people out with it. It takes some time, so my actions have a one-day delay. I got to pick a target both on D1 and N1 which was a one-off occasion. From now on I can only target at night, and the motivation will start the next night.

The "motivated" that showed up in KRZY's list means that I targetted two and mash, not that they received their boost on that time. If they were alive, they'd get their boost the next night. Since I got to target Rolled D1 (which pieguy counted I guess as N0) he got a faith boost thing last night.

Oh and I guess I'll boost you tonight giving you probably a 99% chance of killing? HAve fun as a vig I guess

Wow that's a complicated role. Interestingly done, though.

I believe wojjan, and I believe KRZY. Lyby is quite confident in KRZY's claims as well, so I'm thinking he's amongst the aux roles targeting mash/two. I never really expected there to be two motivators floating around, else there would be counter claims regarding KRZY's information. Wojjan being able to motivate two people is the only thing that makes sense.

Let's get this game kicking. Confirmed town (imo?):

Rolled
LS
KRZY
Wojjan
Lyby (subtleish claim)

Since we pretty much already have 2 claims from the people targeting two/mash, lets go with plan A and find some scum.

be back in a couple hours~

Just curious but what would motivation do to hider?

Raging Bull wrote:

Just curious but what would motivation do to hider?

Probably make them a kind of insomniac in WWG?

Just woke up. Sup ya- OH MY GOD :I
I missed a good bit of info =w=

Wojjan wrote:

god damnit LS you ruin everything. Now I have to claim the specifics of my motivation

<3

Thanks for getting us quite a few mostly confirmed town and clearing that up.

As rolled said, let's go with Plan A still.

As for motivating me, that's fine regardless. Doing so means that unless I'm NKed tonight we'll have a vig kill the next night. I'd say to motivate the Voyeur or Watcher, but the only flaw with that is the one you motivate has to live through the next two nights.


Small text wall, don't skip!

That leaves us with...

Two was...
tracked (???)
killed (???)
motivated (wojjan)
watched (???)

If the watcher claims...

tracked (Player A/B)
killed (Player B/A)
motivated (wojjan)
watched (watcher)

Now, if Rolled motivates me, we basically have a night Vig kill the next night. So, instead of lynching player A or B, here's what I propose.

The watcher and voyeur target the same player. Either player A or B, since they aren't confirmed.

The real tracker targets himself.

Based on that, even if one of the watcher or voyeur dies we'll recieve a result D3 confirming if that player was town or mafia based on if they targeted himself. (Result being Player targeted himself, or player was tracked.)

Then, I can use my power on the remaining player (mafia).

The only downside is not having the watcher/voyeur/tracker gain more results that night. However, due to the nature of their roles (based around aux/mafia targets) and the gain of not having the chance of lynching that power role, I believe it's a better plan than not doing so.

Thoughts?

Writing this pretty long after I got up so I'm tired. I may have made errors and please correct them if I did.

x.x my head hurts a bit.

I can't think of any reason why that circle of targeting wouldn't work. I've already stated that I'd rather get this plan through and have some sort of information to run on opposed to waiting and hoping.

I'm going to sleep now, if I think of anything I'll post it in the morning.

LadySuburu wrote:

Now, if Rolled Wojjan motivates me, we basically have a night Vig kill the next night. So, instead of lynching player A or B, here's what I propose.
.
.
.
Writing this pretty long after I got up so I'm tired. I may have made errors and please correct them if I did.

fixed

As for the plan itself, I don't see any problems with it, since D3 will definitely net us a mafia even if KRZY or the watcher is NK'd.

I don't like anything of that. Let me point everything out:

One, we don't know how the watcher works. If the mafia played their game even a little cautious in the results of tracking or watching someone would've killed Two who had an expendable secondary night action ability, along the lines of roleblocking, framing etc. If those people self visit the night we're planning this and they kill the voyeur, we ain't got shit but a confirmed town mafia.

Two, we waste three odds of finsing scum. A watcher voyeur and tracker all can potentially find scum, and chaining them together (watcher checks tracker to see to it he doesn't get killed, a presumable doc in a setup this big protects watcher) basically means that the tracker (who is basically a rolecop including the stress of roleclaiming) will lose a night's investigation to confirm himself. We can work around this by sending tracker, watcher and voyeur to another target, but even then we can't work it out. Explaining nextly.

Three, nothing prevents the mafia of killing the appointed target. Since we only have a watcher and a voyeur and no means to link one name to the other, the mafia killing and the tracker tracking a specific target even with both the watcher and voyeur watching will deliver nothing else than "Target got visited by [Tracker] and [Mafia]" or "Target got killed, tracked." This is one obstacle we can work around by having the tracker as their target, but then again we can't really because the tracker will be dead and we lose what is right now our most powerful investigative role around.

Other than that it grievely concerns me that the watcher still hasn't claimed, we've got a shitstorm of lurkers around, we have had next to no discussion for a lynch target yet.

Wojjan wrote:

I don't like anything of that. Let me point everything out:

One, we don't know how the watcher works. If the mafia played their game even a little cautious in the results of tracking or watching someone would've killed Two who had an expendable secondary night action ability, along the lines of roleblocking, framing etc. If those people self visit the night we're planning this and they kill the voyeur, we ain't got shit but a confirmed town mafia.

Two, we waste three odds of finsing scum. A watcher voyeur and tracker all can potentially find scum, and chaining them together (watcher checks tracker to see to it he doesn't get killed, a presumable doc in a setup this big protects watcher) basically means that the tracker (who is basically a rolecop including the stress of roleclaiming) will lose a night's investigation to confirm himself. We can work around this by sending tracker, watcher and voyeur to another target, but even then we can't work it out. Explaining nextly.

Three, nothing prevents the mafia of killing the appointed target. Since we only have a watcher and a voyeur and no means to link one name to the other, the mafia killing and the tracker tracking a specific target even with both the watcher and voyeur watching will deliver nothing else than "Target got visited by [Tracker] and [Mafia]" or "Target got killed, tracked." This is one obstacle we can work around by having the tracker as their target, but then again we can't really because the tracker will be dead and we lose what is right now our most powerful investigative role around.

Other than that it grievely concerns me that the watcher still hasn't claimed, we've got a shitstorm of lurkers around, we have had next to no discussion for a lynch target yet.

First off, I'll say that assuming the watcher is claiming anyway, we might as well go through with my plan. Even if something goes wrong, we can still lynch one of the two the next day as we would do today.

If we don't have the watcher claim, we leave the rest of our roles to be picked off and the aux roles to play "who is targeted next?" with their abilities and potentially get nothing out of it.

1. "The Watcher learns who targeted a player, but not what actions were performed on them. " Mafiascum wiki. I also find it unlikely that the mafia were that careful. Even so, refer to the above.

2. The voyeur cannot find scum on his own. If the watcher claims, we'll lose one of the other two tonight as well anyway. The watcher has to get lucky as hell to find scum, and the tracker as stated elsewhere here is going to die regardless in this scenario. I don't see how we're losing anything.

3. As I said, the tracker targets themselves, the watcher and voyeur both target the same one of the claimed trackers. Therefore, if the mafia kill the assigned target, the other was the mafia. Boom, easy. As for losing the tracker, by having the watcher do his thing we lose the tracker anyway if the mafia want him gone. However, in my scenario we aren't lynching the tracker at a 50% chance. Instead, if the mafia kill him as I just stated it's a free find.


tl;dr: The only way my plan has any problem based on what you said is if the watcher DOES NOT CLAIM. If the watcher does not claim the rest of our claimed roles are open to be picked off at mafia's choice.


Also, still tired but I believe I've answered all your concerns. If I've missed something tell me so I can answer it.

Prod: Backfire

Heading to work soon. Will finish reading the thread on my mobile. Will post tonight.

DeathxShinigami wrote:

Prod: Backfire

Heading to work soon. Will finish reading the thread on my mobile. Will post tonight.

Prod? Im right here :l Unless prod means something else.

yeah i think LS's plan it's better than the other ones suggested till now


i don't find the watcher claiming a really good idea , but with everything LS said it's one of the best choices so far .. plus i can't really find a good plan involving the watcher not to claim ..

LadySuburu wrote:

I don't see how we're losing anything.

We're losing the tracker

Wojjan wrote:

We're losing the tracker

How is that different than any other situation where the watcher claims and gives us the names?

That we can scumhunt those two names and make an educated guess to their alignments. We don't have Two but that doesn't mean we can't hit mafia.

Wojjan wrote:

That we can scumhunt those two names and make an educated guess to their alignments. We don't have Two but that doesn't mean we can't hit mafia.

By the way, one of those two names is the tracker.

The mafia knows which one is the tracker.

Tonight the mafia kills that one.

We lose the tracker.

No difference.


Unless I'm missing something?

the watcher is on the tracker. The mafia loses two mafia. Not really a gambit I'd take if I were them, with already a member down

Wojjan wrote:

the watcher is on the tracker. The mafia loses two mafia. Not really a gambit I'd take if I were them, with already a member down

So if I'm following correctly, this is what you want:

50% chance of lynching the tracker and losing another power role at night, have just the one confirmed mafia.

50% chance of lynching mafia and losing the tracker at night, gain another mafia name next night.

VS

100% chance of not lynching the tracker, and a chance of lynching a different mafia

Basically 100% chance of tracker dying at night. We get the one confirmed mafia.



Is that about right?

I was thinking if we just let the watcher target one of the two people without role claiming. We don't have to know the result from the watch to perform LS's plan. This way, the voyeur would be able to do his own thing for the night as well and not risk the chance of losing a watcher for the night.

bmin11 wrote:

I was thinking if we just let the watcher target one of the two people without role claiming.

Then the mafia will go after the voyeur or the watcher, and both tracker and maf will probably stay unconfirmed. The tracker won't be needing a counterclaim, but since they killed the watcher already the tracker dies next night regardless of the voyeur.

and both tracker and maf will probably stay unconfirmed

According to LS's plan, trackers will track themselve. Once the watcher targets one of them for the night and figures if the person targetted himself or not, the watcher can just role claim on D3 and tell us the result of it. I think it would be fairly obvious at that point.

but since they killed the watcher

I doubt the watcher will survive this night if watcher role claims, because I'm also doubting there would be a doctor if we look at the night result. Not a sane doctor would let a double night kill happen knowing there were no guarantees Two had a protective ability. IF we have the watcher not to role claim, we would be taking a 1/6 chance of losing a watcher.

LadySuburu wrote:

Wojjan wrote:

the watcher is on the tracker. The mafia loses two mafia. Not really a gambit I'd take if I were them, with already a member down

So if I'm following correctly, this is what you want:

50% chance of lynching the tracker and losing another power role at night, have just the one confirmed mafia.

50% chance of lynching mafia and losing the tracker at night, gain another mafia name next night.

VS

100% chance of not lynching the tracker, and a chance of lynching a different mafia

Basically 100% chance of tracker dying at night. We get the one confirmed mafia.



Is that about right?

Basically, yes. The chance of lynching another mafia today that doesn't counterclaim the tracker is slim, because hardly anyone has even discussed the lynch yet, everyone discusses what we'll do tonight. That's important but nothing to lynch on. The odds of lynching town or mafia while not considering the tracker is more leaning towards lynching town than lynching the two mafs I suspect remain in the group.

The odds of lynching the maf that cc's the tracker are one out of two, and we can check for ourselves which claim we think is the most believable.

In your situation that's 2/8 chance we lynch a maf today, and 100% for killing the next when we lose the tracker. so 2/8 for two mafs. That's 14 - KRZY, Watcher, Rolled, LS, Wojjan, Tracker

WARNING: PROBABILITY FOLLOWS HERE

Let's say there's two mafia left. The first choice will be to lynch the mafia correctly. That's a fifty percent chance, but it's a chance that we can influence with scumtells and the like. I'm going to assume we do lynch the mafia correctly.

The next night, the mafia will probably kill the watcher, because he'll be on the tracker. That means there'll be two mafia among 16 living players. Let's exclude uncc'd, confirmed town players (KRZY, Rolled, LS, Wojjan, Tracker). That leaves 8. From those, we can either take two paths. The tracker has a result on a mafia, which is a 2/8 chance. If this doesn't happen, we're left with 7 townies (because a tracker result that's not on the dead guy will exclude them from being mafia) among which we have 2 mafs still hiding. If we lynch a maf correctly after that, it's a 1/5 chance for lynching the last maf, and we have at least three mislynches (IMCAC) to do so. So that's 1/5,1/4,1/3. Basically, the chance that we WON'T hit the last mafia is (2*3*4)/(3*4*5) which is 50% again. If we don't ever hit mafia, the odds will be 2/5, 2/4, 2/3 and that makes a 1/10 chance.

so that's a 1/4 chance that we lynch all mafias on a bad day, and 9/20 on a good day, and that's relying only on chance, assuming there are NO more power roles, no more investigation, and no more lucky breaks from any power roles to out maf.

As far as mafia games go those are pretty nice odds. At least, to my calculations, better than yours.

Ok, this was my original plan for determining which of the two tracker claims were mafia:

Tracker A, voyeur, and watcher all go to the same target.
Tracker B tracks the motivator, who doesn't reveal his target.

B is determined scum if he can't correctly identify the motivator's target.
A is determined scum if watcher/voyeur results don't add up.

I also had a separate plan for if the duplicate claim was motivator, but I preferred this plan over that one. This is why I was proposing a certain claim order, as I wanted the tracker to be the duplicate claim instead of motivator.

Now then, since Wojjan is probably actually just targeting LS now, that plan doesn't really work. So, we could instead have Tracker A track LadySuburu instead. LS picks a target at random (or not!) and doesn't reveal it. It's highly unlikely it result in a misfired kill since it's only a 9% chance.