Chamelo_Th wrote:

You feel that I'm scum.
Okay, so your vote is based on your feeling, right.

I thought it was obvious but whatever. They are my thoughts last night, not today.

Did you mean: Day 2?

And gut feeling, yeah, gut feeling.


Who did you protected last night?

And my previous post meant for Sonatora.

Here's my list


Cth : Intuition-san is teing me that you're the scum.
Sakura :Still leeching me for info
Navizel : Town, for now
beeboy : Aggressive town, but there's no lead that this guys a mafia. Null town

Sonatora wrote:

Sakura :Still leeching me for info

As is CTs, and I'd like you to answer too, since we're only missing your target, I see no reason not to cooperate with Sakura at this point.

Oh, my target last night? It was Navizel. Anything else?

Now that's a hard resolving pattern. :v

Ok so we have

That means Gumica was CPR/Quack doctor and it was him who killed CBot since noone targeted him, and Gumica was killed by scum (not the other kill capable doc or being weak doc), since noone targeted Gumica and CBot wouldn't have died if he was weak doc.

So what people CAN'T be are:
Sakura: CPR/Quack (since noone else targeted Sonatora who could have saved him)
Drezi: none, but since there's only one killing role left it's not probable that I have it and Navi is the Jailer at the same time.
Navi: none, being a killing role is a bit more probable, since two people could have jailed him.
CTh: none, being protective or killing is a lot more probable, since Navi was targeted by two people so either 2 nonkilling or 1 killing 1 protective among them.
Sonatora: same as CTh.

So what we can figure of this for sure is that we should have Sakura protect a townread, that she feels would get NK-d.

Sakura: CPR/Quack (since noone else targeted Sonatora who could have saved him, and noone targeted Sakura who could have jailed the kill*)

So it's the line from the list of what she CAN'T be, to avoid confusion.

I only targeted Navizel last night since he felt vulnerable. He's also an obvious town so why not.

Wait.
We forget that Frosting could be CPR doctor or Quack doctor.
You know, Frosting targeted CB and CB targeted Frosting.

What?

Frosting was modkilled D1, and Nurse got his powers (or he was nurse), so we went into N1 with the 6 doctor roles.

Sorry, I missed.

Gumica

No it said Town Doctor, so he wasn't Nurse, the Nurse got his powers, doesn't change the point either way.

Chamelo_Th wrote:

Wait.
We forget that Frosting could be CPR doctor or Quack doctor.
You know, Frosting targeted CB and CB targeted Frosting.

So you mean Gumica instead of Frostings, ok but I had already concluded that Gumica HAD to be CPR/Quack, and he couldn't have died from being targeted by other docs or being a weak doctor so scum HAD to target Gumica.

Why are you presenting it as something new?

Vote: CTs

I posted that before read your latest analysis.

So, I TOTALLY missed that, bah.

I posted that an hour ago..

I didn't read.

Drezi wrote:

Ok so we have

Sakura (SNB) > Sonatora
Drezi > beeboy
Navizel > Drezi
CTh > Navizel
Sonatora > Navizel
beeboy > No Target

That means Gumica was CPR/Quack doctor and it was him who killed CBot since noone targeted him, and Gumica was killed by scum (not the other kill capable doc or being weak doc), since noone targeted Gumica and CBot wouldn't have died if he was weak doc.

So what people CAN'T be are:
Sakura: CPR/Quack (since noone else targeted Sonatora who could have saved him)
Drezi: none, but since there's only one killing role left it's not probable that I have it and Navi is the Jailer at the same time.
Navi: none, being a killing role is a bit more probable, since two people could have jailed him.
CTh: none, being protective or killing is a lot more probable, since Navi was targeted by two people so either 2 nonkilling or 1 killing 1 protective among them.
Sonatora: same as CTh.

So what we can figure of this for sure is that we should have Sakura protect a townread, that she feels would get NK-d.

Yeah that's pretty much it, Also this means that since who killed CBot is dead then we have 1 less doctor that kills.

So CTh I have intent to hammer you, mostly based off CBot's associations. Why did you target Navizel last night?

I'd hammer you but I'll let Sakura do her thing

Since everyone know my alibi, am I clear on this Navizel target theory?

Btw do take reminder of when claims happened, Because the people that claimed their target first are more likely to be town than the people that waited to claim, most likely because scum wanted to fake claim something to mess up with town's targets and to mess up their information, I don't take your "No target" claim as a fake claim because since you targeted no one then you weren't trying to mess up anything, I do admit it's harder to find out what kind of role are you tho.

Anyway now that we know one of the dead doctors is one of the killer ones I suppose I could run some numbers again and see whether we should do a circle targetting.

Sonatora wrote:

I only targeted Navizel last night since he felt vulnerable. He's also an obvious town so why not.

And for those who dont know, thats my alibi

@Sakura I was second to claim you just missed it

Second was a made up number

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Ok these 4 are the possible cause of Deaths.

We know that I can't kill people.
We know that either CPR or Quack are dead.

This ammounts to 3 possible deaths Overnight, at 6p that'd be insta lose if we mislynch

Sakura (SNB) > Sonatora (Weak, Quack, CPR, Paranoid, Naive )
Drezi > beeboy
Navizel > Drezi
CTh > Navizel
Sonatora > Navizel
beeboy > No Target

No one targeted Gumica either so Gumica died of a mafia kill.
^
This is interesting so i guess it's time to check on Gumica's reads.

Also i'm thinking on no lynching and doing the circle targeting anyone else agrees?

agree

Drezi
beeboy123
Chamelo_Th
Navizel
Sakura
Sonatora

This is the list. target the person below you, if you're at the bottom target the person above you, this means:

Drezi > beeboy
beeboy > CTh
CTh > Navizel
Navizel > Sakura
Sakura > Sonatora
Sonatora > Drezi

This way scum have no way to escape being implicated by targets and we can more clearly analyze the roles. I trust that if i die you guys will be able to figure it out.

That is if we no lynch to do this... Otherwise i'll hammer CTh.

Oh btw, on other news if we mislynch today i'll be targetting Drezi tonight I know I can't kill Because no one targeted me, so i wasnt jailed, and no one else targeted Sonatora so i'm not CPR, Drezi's currently my highest townread and i rather protect him if we decide not to go along with the plan.

Sakura wrote:

Also i'm thinking on no lynching and doing the circle targeting anyone else agrees?

I guess so, you can't be helping out CTH as a fellow scum as there is 1 scum left so I feel comfortable doing this.

Worst case scenario is that 3 people die and it a 2v1 against scum (as the doctor that dies by not being protected will be protected) which isn't that bad as long as everyone targets properly. And even if 3 people die the scum will be obvious.

obviously I won't vote no lynch as I want to hear everyones thoughts before we end the day

anyone?

Well let's see.

1) If CTh is NOT scum and we lynch him:
If CTh wasn't weak doc and the weak doctor targets scum and doesn't get protected + scum doesn't get jailed and doesn't target someone who is protected + CTh wasn't CPR/Quack and CPR/Quack targets someone who is not the scum and isn't protected by one of the three possible protections, than we lose.

This scenario is very very unlikely, what's likely is that 0, 1 or 2 people die, since NK or CPR/Quack kill can be jailed plus NK and CPR/Quack kill and weak doctor death can be prevented by protections.

But we can always choose not to use our abilities, except for Sakura, and maybe me or Navi, that would be a max 1 death night probably.

2) If we do the circle voting:
Drezi > beeboy > CTh > Navizel > Sakura > Sonatora > Drezi

Someone dies for sure, [Cth, Navi, Drezi] one of us probably, since Beeboy, CTh or Sonatora are the likely killing roles, scum might get a kill too, Sonatora probably get's protected. Weak doctor can die too if targeting scum and not having protection, that's not that likely tough.

Whoever ends up with their targets dead becomes suspicious, since scum's target is guaranteed not to be protected. But it could be weak doc death or being CPR/Quack, or scum going for a not guaranteed kill to frame so everyone remains a suspect.

It's impossible to go through every scenario, I'll just try a few to see how much info we'd get.

Assume Sonatora is scum and killed me, beeboy is Quack and killed CTh.
What we see: Drezi dies, CTh dies. Player's left: Beeboy, Navi, Sonatora, Sakura.
Possible wrong cases
-Beeboy is scum and killed CTh + Sonatora is Quack / I was weak doc and Sonatora was jailed or VT.
-Navi is scum and killed me + Sonatora is VT or Quack, CTh is weak doc / Beeboy is Quack, Sonatora VT.
...there are probably more I got tired at this point.

If someone does more cases that would be welcome, from my small sample it looks like there are too many factors, and we can't really pintpoint scum this way.

Even if it doesn't give that much info, there's not much of a drawback to doing it though, since if CTh is scum than probably beeboy is the killing role and he'll just kill CTh, so we still win. Except if Navi is the Quack/CPR and Sonatora is Jailer, or I am the Quack/CPR and Navi is the Jailer (around 10%?). In that case Beeboy/Sakura dies + someone can get NK-d. Welp.

But if it IS beeboy I can still possibly Jail his kill and then we don't win even if it's CTh..