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2012 Secret Santa Mafia | Game Over - Flawless Mafia Victory

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Ivalset

JInxyjem wrote:

He said if his vig role works like his giftee's, then he wouldn't even have 100% accuracy.

Sounds to me like he chose vig for his giftee and thus came to that conclusion that he may not be 100%.
If he chose vig for his giftee then he would have come to the conclusion that he isn't 100%, not that he might not be 100%.
Jinxy
No, his post showed that he thought he may not have shared the same type of vig as his giftee but if he did share the same type of vig, it meant that he did not have 100%.
Jinxy
So basically he was basing his accuracy on whether his vig role was the same type as the giftee's, and not if there were other vigs he did not know about. Thus I believe he did choose vig for his giftee.
Ivalset

JInxyjem wrote:

No, his post showed that he thought he may not have shared the same type of vig as his giftee but if he did share the same type of vig, it meant that he did not have 100%.
If he was saying what you're trying to say, then his statement would have read:

Dusty wrote:

If the description on the role list my giftee had is the same as my vig role, I don't even have guaranteed 100% accuracy...
bmin11
I think I lost you JInx. Maybe you are reading in too deeply.

Vig itself not knowing of it's own success rate is someone odd to be honest. He should be the person who knows everything of it's own role. So, I'm going to believe he only knew his success rate wasn't 100%, but not the exact rate so Dusty wouldn't know how many vigs there will be on the game.
Jinxy
I'm not really sure how removing the "guaranteed" changes anything but considering I'm losing myself a little, I guess I could be reading too deeply.

The only suspicious thing today for me is Sync's post about him being set up by the mafia. Seems odd for him to point it out himself, I'm not sure if he's just that paranoid or maf that's trying to play a weird game of wifom.
Sync
iiiiiiiiiii wwwwwwwwwwwaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaasssssssssssssssss jjjjjjjjjjjjjjjjuuuuuuuuuuuuussssssssssssssssstttttttttttttttt sssssssssssssppppppppppeeeeeeeeeeeccccccccccccccuuuuuuuuuuullllllllllllllaaaaaaaaatttttttttttiiiiiiiiiiiinnnnnnnnnnnnnnggggggggggggggggggggg aaaaaaaaaaaaaannnnnnnnnnnnnnndddddddddddddddd ttttttttttttttttttrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrryyyyyyyyyyyyyyiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiinnnnnnnnnnnnngggggggggggggg ttttttttttttttttttttooooooooooooooo ggggggggggggiiiiiiiiiiiiiivvvvvvvvvvvvveeeeeeeeeeeee rrrrrrrrrrrrrrrreeeeeeeeeeeeeeeaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaasssssssssssssooooooooooooooonnnnnnnnnnnnnn aaaaaaaaaaaaaaasssssssssssssssss tttttttttttttttoooooooooooooo wwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhyyyyyyyyyyyy rrrrrrrrrrrrrrraaaaaaaaaaaannnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnttttttttttttttttaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaiiiiiiiiiiiiiiii wwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwaaaaaaaaaaaaaasssssssssssss kkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiilllllllllllllllleeeeeeeeeeeddddddddddddddd
Sync
I was just trying to determine the reason why Rantai was killed.
Topic Starter
Two_old
Backfire is replacing NoHItter
Jinxy
Hey there BF
Backfire
Hey c:
pieguyn
ohai Backfire

I wouldn't be surprised if Dusty was the only vigilante. I also wouldn't be surprised if everyone missed or didn't want to risk it considering the fact that they've only got 1 bullet (1-shot vigilante was the only vigilante on my role list, so I doubt there'd be a vigilante with more shots). Or maybe whoever the vigilante was randomly got roleblocked, but I doubt that's the case since I don't think Two would even put a roleblocker on anyone's list since it could end up being town. Or maybe one of the lurkers is bulletproof or something... Anyway, I think there's too many other possibilities for that to be suspicious. :?

I think Chris and Rantai are town due to meta. Mashley at least had a reason for his plan, but the thing is people don't need to claim Santa in advance for it to work. Speaking of that plan, I'm kind of suspicious of Sync o.o I'm not sure why, it's mostly just a gut feeling.

Aside from that, I'm not even sure what to think >.<
pieguyn
Oh wait, Rantai died. Wow, maybe I should pay more attention rofl
pieguyn
Okay looking at it again I think Wojjan is suspicious

1. calls out Dusty with kind of bad reasoning
2. Proposes that plan at N1 involving the vigilante. It's highly unlikely all the more inactive people would be mafia, so the mafia wouldn't choose not to kill anyone. IMO it really doesn't make sense...
3. didn't read the thread carefully enough to realize what Dusty said about his accuracy, which is somewhat tied in with 2

I also think JInxyjem is a bit suspicious but that's another gut feeling :?
Wojjan
I read the thread carefully enough. It should be blatantly obvious that both dusty and dusty's receiving end of the santa both have vig. There for he knows he's not 100% accurate, so when he says that we know there's another vig in play. Why would we not use that?
Why are you also not saying why my reasoning is bad? You ust sort of toss it out there so in the case I get a bandwagon on me you can just say you're right and course along.


play better please, mafs.
Wojjan
Rantai's death means that if chris has it by the right end nobody in the mafia, which I'll assume are with four in this game, picked doctor from the role list.
If you did pick doc, and you didn't out who you picked it for yet in Mashley's idiot move, you should probably claim that there's a doc in play. in that case, ONE rolecop can out himself and get doc protection. Even if the doc is maf they can't kill the cop without sacrificing the best guy on their team, the one who's gonna protect them from all the vig shots. Since apparently we have plenty.
Ivalset
vote: Sync
Lilac
Unvote, Vote: Sync.

I agree. Ival has a very convincing argument.



Unvote.

Very very convincing.
Ivalset
I feel obligated to point out that I didn't make an argument at all!
Wojjan
then you probably shouldn't be voting!!!
!!!!!!!
!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
bmin11
I don't think there was ever a doc for our choice. You mean by the Bodyguard, right?
Chris_old
I agree. If you know there's a doctor you should say so now, but don't say who.

That sounds like a pretty good plan, and it'd allow us to night by night scan the more suspicious people.

.. if you actually had the ability to pick roleblocker and did, say it now please. That's an important bit of information.
Wojjan
yeah well if a cop gets no result the guy who sent in roleblocker for someone outs their giftee and they're scum.
Topic Starter
Two_old
LadySuburu is replacing Dafydd
LadySuburu
I shouldn't do this, but hi guys.
Wojjan
hi LS
Wojjan
any thoughts?
bmin11
hello LS
LadySuburu

Wojjan wrote:

any thoughts?
Haven't quite read the thread up till now. Wasn't tracking it.

Currently on page 6.
Topic Starter
Two_old
there are around 30 hours left until night 2 btw
Chris_old
Vote: Lilac
LadySuburu
From a quick read, without going really deep into the posts.

Gut feeling on Sync and Mashley.

Not sure why people are dismissing Mash as possible scum.

There's a decent amount of "cop-out" roles available in this game, based on the list I have. Somewhat suspicious of those who voted due to it being a "convenient cop-out" role. Expecially since Mafia recieve whatever role is given to them, they can claim what their role actually is generally and be safe. It's like what goes on with my giving mafia believable extra abilities in my games, except in this game everyone has specifically one ability.
Jinxy
Responding to prod, I guess? Just woke up, I'll post more later.
dkun
Also responding to a prod. Had a busy day, catching up on reading.
Sync
I'm still up for lynching Mashley.
pieguyn
hahaha hi LS

It should be blatantly obvious that both dusty and dusty's receiving end of the santa both have vig. There for he knows he's not 100% accurate, so when he says that we know there's another vig in play. Why would we not use that?
He says that he didn't have guaranteed 100% accuracy. This means that he might not have 100% accuracy, but on the other hand he might.

I'm not sure where you got the idea that Dusty picked a vigilante for his giftee either.

Why are you also not saying why my reasoning is bad? You ust sort of toss it out there so in the case I get a bandwagon on me you can just say you're right and course along.
IMO it's bad because Dusty had quite a good point IMO, and you said it wasn't.

There's a decent amount of "cop-out" roles available in this game, based on the list I have. Somewhat suspicious of those who voted due to it being a "convenient cop-out" role. Expecially since Mafia recieve whatever role is given to them, they can claim what their role actually is generally and be safe. It's like what goes on with my giving mafia believable extra abilities in my games, except in this game everyone has specifically one ability.
I agree, the mafia don't really have a reason to lie this time, so we have to rely almost exclusively on scumhunting via posts. :?

I think we should either lynch Sync or Mashley. (Not Wojjan because I don't find him as suspicious as Sync or Mashley at this point)
Sync
Eh, I don't see why you guys want to lynch me. Is it because of that post I made at start of D2, or is it because I answered Mashley's question D1?
pieguyn
both of course
Backfire
Sorry I haven't posted much at all, I'm a little busy. Will read whole thing soon ^^;
Sync
excuses excuses excuses

@pieguy: I'd like to hear YOUR reason as to why those make me mafia (especially the first reason)
pieguyn
Regarding the post at D2, it's kind of useless to post something like that, it seems like you're paranoid people will call you out on that. To be honest deaths are just a big ball of WIFOM, so it doesn't even matter that much (so I doubt anyone who's town would say that)
Sync
yeah, I kind of regret posting it. The only reason I regret posting it is because people are ripping my ass apart because of it. It was only speculation.
Chris_old
I feel like Sync is probably telling the truth, but it was a really bad move to make.

I'm really not willing to lynch them over it though, despite the D1 issue.

Let's not forget that whoever picked Rantai's role has basically refused to claim they did.

I'm pretty sure I'm correct about mafia killing off the people they gave roles too.
Sync
Did we give each other our roles (the person we gave the role to)?
bmin11
If we assume everyone's random, there is a chance for that case.
Mara
just responding to prod
Topic Starter
Two_old
responding to a prod with a post saying that you are responding to a prod, with nothing else in it, isn't really responding to a prod as you are still as afk as you were before and the post you just posted may as well have not existed :idea:
Mara
dude what the fuck

let me try to wake up faster so I can actually understand shit
Mara
total mindrape
Sleep Powder
Not really sure who to vote for... I'll just leave this post here as a placeholder (cuz of a prod) and I'll post something with better content later.
foulcoon
heres who I think are most suspicious at this point:

Sync
Wojjan
pieguy


i'm game for a lynch on any of the 3
Mashley
Vote LunaticMara
Jesus christ this guy's posts are scummmy. Seriously, read his ISO.
Sync

foulcoon wrote:

heres who I think are most suspicious at this point:

Sync
Wojjan
pieguy


i'm game for a lynch on any of the 3
funny how pieguy makes the list and mashley doesn't

is it because pieguy is maf too and you don't want to seem like you are working with him? nice try, your list is terrible and you don't even list reasons. please get off aion for 5 minutes and come up with valid excuses as to why you want these people lynched.

@Mashley: yeah, stupid posts but I think there are more suspicious people at this point

what do people think

and don't just make lists without reasons next to them like foulcoon did
Wojjan
vote pieguy
Sync
mashley or pieguy

choose one

I choose pieguy because of the role I gave him makes it possible he is mafia
and that foulcoon bullshit

vote: pieguy
Chris_old
If you're planning on lynching pieguy, why don't you tell us what "mafia" role you gave him?

I'd rather not lynch someone based on a suspicious persons word alone.
Sync
rolecop
LadySuburu
As I've said before, giving someone a role makes it no more or less likely for them to be mafia. Two's clearly stated that mafia are randomly chosen, which is why you want to be careful about what role you give. (See OP)

Using that as reasoning for a lynch is very scummy to me, and that's twice now where it seems to be influincing a lynch, at least with Sync's reasonings. (First with Dusty, Vig being a "cop-out" role. Now with pie, rolecop likely being mafia.)

Vote: Sync
Chris_old
Vote: Sync

Someone protect pieguy please.
Sync
how could you both be so blatantly scummy

definitely seems like you two worked together on that one

unless of course LS, chris, and pieguy are mafia working together

no regrets giving out his role especially because he is suspicious as fuck
Sync
i'm just a trooper for the town and you guys know it
bmin11
Can you explain how a role cop would ever tilt the chance of being mafia? Remember, mafia is chosen randomly by the mod (Two) and I really doubt the role choice would ever influence the chance.
Sync
because rolecop mafia is a popular mafia role and it's hard to imagine mafia being really unbalanced like that

also, the shit foulcoon pulled is even more convincing
bmin11
And I think the vig should not shoot the lurker just yet. We could just simply lynch the lurker if you really want them dead that badly and save the shot for now.
bmin11

Sync wrote:

because rolecop mafia is a popular mafia role and it's hard to imagine mafia being really unbalanced like that

also, the shit foulcoon pulled is even more convincing
If we assume the role is given after the mafia was chosen, this would make sense (not that it could be true), but I'm not sure if that is the case with role distribution. Does anyone knows which comes first?
Sync
"Because the mafia will be chosen at random, you should think very carefully about what role you give to whom. Secret santa assignments and role lists will remain officially hidden, but you are free to share/claim anything yourselves."

that does not translate into "mafia will be super under-powered, weak, and insignificant"

if mafia would truly random, there is no stopping the fact that having 4 vanilla mafia is possible. can someone explain to me how this works?
bmin11
And there is a chance of having 4 vanilla townies if people really chose vanilla townies for the role choice.
Chris_old
Let's list the terrible plays Sync has made since the beginning of this game..

1.) Claimed pieguy was the person he a chose a role for.
2.) Tries to vote for Wojjan for not following the terrible plan, then says "both of his votes were jokes".
3.) Claims that he didn't think about what he was doing before he told everyone.
4.) Tries to vote for Mashley to divert attention away from himself after I defended bmin.
5.) Immediately claims the Rantai kill was to frame him, even though no one said anything.
6.) Tries to divert attention to Mashley, again.
7.) Claims everyone who voted for him is obviously mafia.
8.) Tells everyone pieguy is a rolecop and votes for him.
9.) Doesn't even know the basic setup of the game.

I was actually giving you the benefit of the doubt, assuming that you were just bad. I don't think that anymore.
Topic Starter
Two_old
Vote Count
pieguy1372 (2): Wojjan, Sync
Wojjan (1): Lilac
Lilac (1): Chris
LunaticMara (1): Mashley
Sync (1): LadySuburu

there are 5 hours and 20 minutes left if I'm any good at math
Mashley
5 hours D: I'd request an extension but I doubt that's Two's style. Lynch Mara guys.
Sync
1.) you're right
2.) this is not in chronological order
3.) it's true
4.) voted for mashley because mashley himself was trying to divert attention away from him
5.) was just speculation
6.) because he is suspicious
7.) yes, I did. especially foulcoon. his reasons are weak and scummy
8.) because
9.) the "basic setup" seems unlikely to be 100% true and how do you know if mafia roles were randomized before or after roles were given
Sync
also, chris: making it really obvious that you're just being scummy because you didn't even unvote before you voted for me what the fuck

I'm not complaining though ~~~~~
bmin11

Sync wrote:

4.) voted for mashley because mashley himself was trying to divert attention away from him
Mashley trying to divert away from Mashley himself.......... I really hope this is not what you meant.

Sync wrote:

7.) yes, I did. especially foulcoon. his reasons are weak and scummy
Explain this in detail. Like, everything you can say about pieguy and foulcoon.

Sync wrote:

9.) the "basic setup" seems unlikely to be 100% true and how do you know if mafia roles were randomized before or after roles were given
Meaning Two is lying to us? From what Two has said about the role choice and stuff, I'm actually going to believe roles were given first, then the mafia were chosen randomly.
Sync
I meant to say that he was trying to move himself from under the spotlight by voting with salvage and wojjan (because they won't call him out if he does what they ask)

foulcoon comes up with this bullshit list (his second post in the entire game?) (viewtopic.php?p=1273196#p1273196). he gives no reasoning whatsoever. It's not like it made up for the "excessive" input he's had on the game thus far. also, putting pieguy (someone who's appeared to be pro-town this whole game so far) in that list randomly is what really made me suspect foulcoon and pieguy as mafia (foulcoon pointing his finger at pieguy to make it seem unlikely they are working together)

Nope, I'm just saying it's unlikely that the Mod did not manipulate the choosing of alignment in any way, shape, or form to balance the game out.
bmin11
I don't think you get how roles are chosen. Here is the step
1) People choose the role for the other
2) Two now randomizes the mafia member
3) Take a look at what the person was given and give the role while balancing it.

Now tell me, how a person getting a role cop as an option would influence the chance of getting mafia? It is random.

You guys are both bull shit, but you know the difference? foulcoon didn't vote and you did. I don't think I would have to explain the difference.


vote: Sync
Sync
I'm not mafia and you are making a mistake. don't you guys understand the importance of somebody in town to go out and bite mafia where it hurts

they're probably trembling they're so scared of the power I hold alone. after all, I already pointed them out

you should unvote and vote for pieguy, foulcoon, or mashley. either work for me
Jinxy
P.S. Talking like that does not make you Two/Salvage


poser
Sync
thx JInxyjem for contributing something so useful to the game other than the ISO

you're right though I wish I was Two/Salvage because I want to be admired amongst the osu mafia communtiy so badly

I am trying to be them on purpose

That is my intent

you read me perfectly
pieguyn
vote: Sync

I thought Chris also voted Sync, unless I missed something :?
Sync
i hope you guys know you're lynching a townie
Sync
employer* same shit
Jinxy
You have made jack sense to me and targeted pieguy for a ridiculous reason that he is a Rolecop. Yeah that role totally makes him more scummy despite the fact everything's random. Not scummier than you though.

vote: Sync
Sync
in the next mafia game I will lie instead of telling the truth. Instead of being open and willing to discuss stuff I will be seclusive and unwilling to participate.

Or maybe I will get overly emotional. I will vote out of rage and disagree with everybody's opinion other than my own... because I want to be Salvage so bad. I'm a poser, right?

P.S you guys can still unvote
Topic Starter
Two_old
Vote Count
Sync (4): LadySuburu, bmin11, pieguy1372, JInxyjem
pieguy1372 (2): Wojjan, Sync
Wojjan (1): Lilac
Lilac (1): Chris
LunaticMara (1): Mashley

Sync found Rantai moments later, bled out on the floor. The rest of the group see Sync standing over their dead body.

"It wasn't me, I swear! .. it was pieguy!" he yelled, though no one seemed to believe him. Slowly the group gathered around, and began to box him in against the wall. "Give us one reason to believe you, you've been acting strange all night!"

"I know, I just can't help it! I'm telling you, I'm our best shot at making it out of here alive!" After a while of failed convincing, it seemed Sync finally gave up. "You're going to regret this!"

That's all it took, the group banded around Sync and started pummeling him down against the wall. A neverending supply of stomps and kicks soon had Sync passed out. The fat guy decided to jump with both feet onto the side of his head, crushing his skull. Upon searching the body, they found a piece of paper he had been writing on in his pocket.

"List of Possible Killers", and as you read down you notice that blood has gushed over the paper, making it unreadable.

An eyrie feeling goes across the room, and chills run up their backs. The hunt is still on.



Sync - Employee (Town) - Role Cop has been lynched.
Sync
day ends soon

farewell, good luck town
Topic Starter
Two_old
It's now Night 2. You have 32 hours to send in night actions.
Topic Starter
Two_old
akrolsmir is replacing Backfire because they got banned or something
akrolsmir
Hi guys. I'm the new Defense Against the Dark Arts professor. I hope we have a wonderful year.
Topic Starter
Two_old
It was getting cold around the office, and tempers were running high. They were like scared dogs backed into a corner, ready to attack.

Seemingly quiet and lost in his own thought, Ivalset never really spoke when the group argued and fought about who the killer might be. No one was willing to turn their backs on each other, and even the most friendly couples were tearing at each others throats.

Ivalset only listened as the group angrily discussed what the best course of action was. After a heated thirty minute debate, Ivalset stood up and walked away. He seemed.. emotionless. No one could really get a good read on him. "Quiet doesn't mean serial killer, does it?" a man suggested, looking at Ivalset as he walked away.

Ivalset decided to go sit in his office and grab the small blanket he kept in the bottom drawer of his desk. Holding it up in front of him, he shook it out and just as he was about to fold it, a breeze blew in from his oddly open office window. Slightly creeped out, Ivalset walked over to close the window. As he leaned out to grab it, he was pushed from behind.

He flipped over forward, barely able to grab onto the ledge. Dangling what seemed as high as a plane in the sky, Ivalset looked up at the killer. He had seen the psychopath who was responsible for all the killings. The killer slowly sliced a "20" into Ivalset's right hand as he held on, and a "12" in the other hand.

He wouldn't be able to speak a word of it, as he was doomed to eternal silence as the killer plunged a knife into the back of his neck, stabbing it into the side of the building. Ivalset hanging there, bled out down the side of it. Coming to check on him later, suspicious, the group saw two hands at the window.

"Oh shit, grab him!" they said, and ran over to help him back in. As they got towards the ledge, they saw the knife stabbed into the back of his neck. Looking down at hm hanging, they noticed what his hands read..


Ivalset - Employee (Town) - Role Cop has been killed.
Topic Starter
Two_old
It's now Day 3. You have 72 hours until Night 3.

It takes 8 votes to lynch
Ivalset
Man, that's a little brutal you know.
Wojjan
WHO WAS IT LASSIE
TELL US
Chris_old
I'm not sure if Ivalset dying kills the point I was making about mafia killing the people they picked roles for.

I doubt they would of picked a Bodyguard over a Role Cop for the kill N1 if they had knew Ivalset was one.

That still doesn't explain why whoever chose Rantai's role didn't want to say who they were.

Two rolecops gone in one day/night period is bad though, and there is still pieguy who is left lingering for a possible kill tonight.

Who did you scan pieguy? Don't say the role unless it's something like roleblocker.
Jinxy
What on earth are the vigs doing? Unless there really aren't any left, but that still seems unlikely to me.
Mashley
Busy missing or not existing.
dkun
pretty sure the vig (if there is one) has good reason to keep quiet
just my ten cents

also;

Sync wrote:

I'm not mafia and you are making a mistake. don't you guys understand the importance of somebody in town to go out and bite mafia where it hurts

they're probably trembling they're so scared of the power I hold alone. after all, I already pointed them out

you should unvote and vote for pieguy, foulcoon, or mashley. either work for me

why trust pieguy? sync was totally town, was he not?
sorry but, vote: pieguy1372
Chris_old
I don't see how Sync being town makes pieguy mafia.

Sync was bad, outed a cop and got himself lynched as a cop.

It's interesting that's you're willing to lynch a cop though, especially after we just lost two and he listed more than just him.
dkun
imho his logic was just

you've defended him and avoided pieguy getting hammered before
you're just as scum as he is
fos bro
dkun
defended pieguy, that is
Chris_old
I defended pieguy from Sync's terrible scum logic, and now I'm defending him from yours.

There is no reason why anyone associated with town would want someone who is a confirmed cop lynched at this point.

If the lynch passes through and pieguy is actually town, dkun is next.
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