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Rank decay and food for thought

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Total Posts
21
Dexus
982 posts
Joined July 2009
Topic Starter
Dexus
I'm rank 1.6k right now and I'm trying to calculate how long it would be until my rank stops decaying (lowering due to players surpassing it).

Here are some numbers

It would take 5 days for someone to lose a rank in the top 15
Over 90 days I'm getting an average decrease of about 4 players a day.
Looking at a rank 500 person I only see about 2 players a day passing them.
Looking at a rank 25,000 player he is decaying at 56 players a day.

The top player has almost 9,000 pp
I have approximately 4,300 pp
rank 500 has an estimate of 5,200 pp
rank 25,000 has an estimate of 1,800 pp

Now here come my questions

How much pp would you have to get to sit around at a certain rank for a very long time?
How much pp and rank really is average in terms of strictly numbers?
How long until my rank will slow down in terms of other players progression.

I haven't been able to calculate how fast everyone is progressing through the ranks on average but I'm certain it would simply work in reverse as to decay of player's ranks.

I don't have time to profread this post right now because I have a dinner party to run out to. This thread is totally ignoring skill and I'm just looking for numbers simply out of curiosity (I like numbers and calculations).
Gumpy
2,418 posts
Joined June 2014
Gumpy
That was interesting too read.

I can say that at 25k you need like 3-4 pp each day too stay at the rank.
Last edited by Gumpy , edited 1 time in total.
cheezstik
1,005 posts
Joined October 2013
cheezstik
Well the top like 5-6 should probably not be an accurate scale of this, as they are nearly completely inactive. Sayonara's last login was 2 months ago as of now, and all three of them haven't gained pp since then, as that was when hvick got #1, and all three of them tried to fight for the spot. Everyone else at 8kpp hasn't really done much since they reached 8kpp. Safe to say everyone #<6 has their spot pretty well secured.

How much pp would you have to get to sit around at a certain rank for a very long time?
This obviously differs with the rank, and how long you consider a very long time, but I've seen a couple peoples decay graphs from complete inactivity. It took someone 90 days to go from 8.8k to >10k rank. When I just hit 9k, I decayed at around 25-50 ranks a day from complete inactivity, so no gaining even decimal pp. The rate of decay was pretty similar all the way up to around ~13k, and I remember it being around 40-80 from 15k-18k.

It seems to speed up a lot around 9.5-9.9k, probably because that's where a lot of people just desperately grind and struggle to maintain their 4 digit rank, as I once did. I'd imagine the same around the ~900-999 mark.
Sophia
266 posts
Joined December 2013
Sophia
I take my sweet time plowing through ranks and I can say that right when you're about to turn a milestone (30k, 20k) the rank decay is quite brutal if you don't gain a lot of PP or don't play at all. One week is enough to kick me from nearly 20k to >21k, given zero activity and no PP gain.
Karuta-_old_1
947 posts
Joined November 2009
Karuta-_old_1
the higher the rank decay the better, it means there are more weirdos out there who are crazy about hitting two buttons
Vuelo Eluko
5,484 posts
Joined October 2013
Vuelo Eluko
you will always decay
obviously not FOREVER, i.e you'll never be decayed down to something like 300k even though mathematically that should happen given the time, but by the time that would happen the game would be dead or shut down

Unless theres some kind of mass human awakening about osu! and it becomes the most played game for a decade.
sangu
120 posts
Joined June 2013
sangu
I have this all modeled on excel with graphs and stuff, but I would like a bit more info on the daily rank drops from more players before I release it. With the data I have now, I was able to calculate the pp needed to maintain rank (the rate at which the requirement of pp vs rank is growing), however the addition of this extra data should make the values much less... interesting...

All the edits: I was decided what if anything I should say to Riince
otoed1
639 posts
Joined May 2014
otoed1

Riince wrote:

you will always decay
obviously not FOREVER, i.e you'll never be decayed down to something like 300k even though mathematically that should happen given the time, but by the time that would happen the game would be dead or shut down

Unless theres some kind of mass human awakening about osu! and it becomes the most played game for a decade.
Osu! will never die! Osu is love osu is life.
kevpwns
kevpwns
If you see my rank I decayed around 1000 ranks from a 2-3 month inactivity, at around the 3500 pp range.

That is around 3-4 k rank though so I'm not sure about other ranks
sayonara_sekai
376 posts
Joined November 2010
sayonara_sekai
didnt play for exactly 30 days and dropped from 22.1k to 23.3k
pooptartsonas
128 posts
Joined January 2012
pooptartsonas
Over almost exactly two months of insignificant pp gain (I think I gained 7 total throughout that time) I lost 27 ranks, from 109 to 136.
I Give Up
1,648 posts
Joined January 2014
I Give Up
On average 25 players pass 2400pp per day.
buny
3,435 posts
Joined March 2012
buny
i lose a rank every day

the struggle is real
Tom94
osu!dev
750 posts
Joined August 2012
Tom94
I was in the top 100 when the initial ppv2 came out and now I am #250. :(
Luna
2,355 posts
Joined November 2010
Luna
In case anyone cares about Taiko rank decay - according to my performance graph I dropped from #74 to #86 over the last 90 days (only gained negligible amounts of pp since I started practicing a different playstyle). That's like a rank every 7-8 days; slower than osu!standard top 15.
sangu
120 posts
Joined June 2013
sangu
Well, I guess this is data we'll live with. To calculate the PP needed to maintain rank at a given rank, I created an equation which estimates the amount of pp each rank has and used the derivative of that to find the amount of PP needed to increase one rank. Then I used the data from everyone about how much their rank decays over a day and multiplied it by the amount of pp to gain a rank. This yielded the graph of how much pp is needed to maintain rank. If there is an issue with the math, please let me know.

Graph of PP needed to maintain rank
Rank is on the x axis, PP needed is on the y
The Other Graphs

If you want the spreadsheet for whatever reason, (I added a manual input, so if you're curious about your particular rank) it is available here

Remember this is calculated as a formula which tries to predict human behavior. This is not going to be a perfect prediction especially because a lot of the data is estimation.

Anyways, have fun!

Edit: I should have warned you all that the model is only really accurate between the ranks ~400 to ~120000. Less than 400 the model tends to overestimate the drain, any more and the model is unable to determine the pp vs. Rank correctly
Last edited by sangu , edited 1 time in total.
VirtualMuffin
82 posts
Joined January 2014
VirtualMuffin
1231pp was what my 'senpai' was stuck at for like 3 months.

Then he was ranked 31k. Now you'd get 43k for that amount.

Decay can be powerful in certain areas, but at times it'll slow down if you're lucky
Enhu
117 posts
Joined June 2013
Enhu
I was rank #170 with 5806pp 2 months ago, now I'm #204 with 5825pp

Assuming that I haven't gained any pp I would've been #205 now, I lose a rank per 2 days approximately.
Synpoo
616 posts
Joined August 2013
Synpoo
i'm losing my hard earned ranks too quickly

i should probably play this game
Vuelo Eluko
5,484 posts
Joined October 2013
Vuelo Eluko

VirtualMuffin wrote:

1231pp was what my 'senpai' was stuck at for like 3 months.

Then he was ranked 31k. Now you'd get 43k for that amount.

Decay can be powerful in certain areas, but at times it'll slow down if you're lucky
can i be your senpai instead :4
VirtualMuffin
82 posts
Joined January 2014
VirtualMuffin

Riince wrote:

VirtualMuffin wrote:

1231pp was what my 'senpai' was stuck at for like 3 months.

Then he was ranked 31k. Now you'd get 43k for that amount.

Decay can be powerful in certain areas, but at times it'll slow down if you're lucky
can i be your senpai instead :4
Sure XD although i'm not on as much as I used to be :)
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