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Crazy Mafia 2 [Mafia (Townie) Win!]

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BagelBob_old
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0_o
"I didn't" was referring to Pas's question of if anyone else's guilt/innocence was in their PM.

Might as well get everything out in the open though

Role Claim: Mafia Doctor
BagelBob_old
In that case, I'll claim right after LadySuburu, and it looks like I can request a prod in about 7 and a half hours.
LadySuburu
Don't know why we're mass claiming, but I'm a vanilla mafia.
BagelBob_old
anything extra?
LadySuburu
No, I'm pretty plain.
BagelBob_old
I'm a Vanillia Mafia with the append that Derekku is Innocent. Upon asking strager, he confirmed that someone who is "Innocent" is a member of the mafia. He also told me that I couldn't post PANTS PANTS PANTS PANTS. Unless 0_o claims that he protected LadySuburu last night, or Derekku clears LadySuburu somehow, I'm ready to hammer. The reasoning for 0_o being that we had a night 0. Having a doctor and only a doctor act on Night 0 seems kind of silly. Either the traitor got a kill, but 0_o protected the right person, Derekku is a Vig with a NK, or strager added Night 0 to mess with us.
0_o
I protected myself last night :P

I think we should wait and see what Derekku has to say though, this is Crazy mafia so I suspect there is more going on here than meets the eye right now..
Derekku
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BagelBob_old
Ok

Derekku is confirmed because if Derekku is the traitor, I'd have to be a traitor too. The rules state there is only one traitor.
I'm confirmed because if I am the traitor, Pasonia would have to be a traitor too. The rules state there is only one traitor.

Pasonia is 95% confirmed because what she said matches almost exactly what I got.

We need to know from strager:
1. if the Doc can protect himself
2. What "Unknown" means

After that I suggest:
Lynching LadySuburu
if necessary, have 0_o protect Derekku
have Derekku investigate 0_o

If he's innocent, we should consider lynching Pasonia
If Derekku is NKed, we should consider lynching 0_o

We don't know if Derekku is sane
We don't know if 0_o is sane
We don't know if the traitor is a roleblocker

Anyone have anything to add/change?

Edit: I'm going to hammer before I go to sleep today
0_o
I started this before I saw Bagel's post, but I'll post anyway

I think it's safe to clear Pasonia, since he was the first one to say he received someone else's innocence in their PM. Also, this post I believe clears BagelBob, since he states here at the very beginning that he already knew Derekku was innocent (even though it seemed like a joke at the time).

This leaves Derekku and LadySuburu (and me I suppose)

I asked strager right after I got my PM and he said that yes, I can protect myself.

Also, I don't think we can assume that yours and Pas's results are 100% guaranteed to be correct (being Crazy Mafia and all), so we aren't sure of your sanities either. Still, I am leaning toward lynching Suburu tonight, if no one else has any objections?
0_o
unvote

Vote Count
LadySuburu (2) - Derekku, Pasonia -- L-1
Derekku (1) - BagelBob
0_o (1) - LadySuburu

Not Voting - 0_o
Pasonia
Since the setup of this game was not clear, I should go on and inquire about a few things that has been posted since my message.

0_o wrote:

"I didn't" was referring to Pas's question of if anyone else's guilt/innocence was in their PM.

Might as well get everything out in the open though

Role Claim: Mafia Doctor
Weird, a Mafia Doctor in a game this short?

Derekku Chan wrote:

Sorry guys, I was gone all day =<

Role Claim: Mafia Cop

I randomly picked Pasonia to scan on Night 0 and got an "Unknown" reading. I'm not sure what to make of that.
A roleblock? Not sure if this traitor can do that, but if a roleblock actually did affect you then that must be absolutely coincidental.

I am tempted to wonder about the plausibility of a Mafia+Roleblocker role in a 5-man game, along with the cop.
While Derekku's claim of his cop investigate getting an unknown reading is much food for thought (a cop getting roleblocked on N0 is about a 25% chance at best, assuming the roleblock power is single-target only) 0_o's claim of a doctor role is even more suspicious.

Assuming any one of the remaining three (myself BB and LS) were scum, and we lynch them after surviving D1 then D2 it's almost open season for the remaining Innocents to attack the scum. I firmly believe that at least BB and LS are not stupid enough to leave themselves in the open.

My thoughts are, put succinctly:

1. Derekku is attempting a very, very weak scumbait by playing along with 0_o, and BB is probably right that Derekku is Innocent
2. 0_o is probably trying to smoke us with additional roles.

Which therefore stands to reason that I should perform the following actions:

Unvote
Vote no lynch


If there's something about this whole setup, it's that LadySuburu is being pretty inconspicious too, but since I've not played much with Suburu before I can't tell if LS is a scum biding time or just being very busy IRL.

strager: Clarification, Night 0 the Traitor can't kill, amirite?
Topic Starter
anonymous_old
A Doctor may protect himself.

Sanities are unknown (as far as the players are concerned of course) for all players. I may provide false information like I did in CM1 (for anyone except SFG in that game, anyway, who was Sane), except in this post.

An "unknown" result means an action was unsuccessful.
Topic Starter
anonymous_old

Pasonia wrote:

strager: Clarification, Night 0 the Traitor can't kill, amirite?
I cannot reveal this information.
Pasonia

strager wrote:

A Doctor may protect himself.

Sanities are unknown (as far as the players are concerned of course) for all players. I may provide false information like I did in CM1 (for anyone except SFG in that game, anyway, who was Sane), except in this post.

An "unknown" result means an action was unsuccessful.
Please don't tell me you placed my alignment as Insane again for the second game running.
Topic Starter
anonymous_old

Pasonia wrote:

Please don't tell me you placed my alignment as Insane again for the second game running.
All players are randomly matched to a certain set of roles. I did not arrange the players to roles myself.
Derekku
Now that actual information has been gathered, I'll remove my random vote for the time being until we can hear from LS.

Unvote.
0_o
With regards to Pas's attack against me, keep in mind I was the second person to claim, and that was after you claimed you knew of Bagel's innocence. If I were the traitor I would waited until at least one more person claimed, since I would have no way of knowing if the rest of the mafia received extra information as well, and if this was the case I would have been screwed.
Topic Starter
anonymous_old

0_o wrote:

With regards to Pas's attack against me, keep in mind I was the second person to claim, and that was after you claimed you knew of Bagel's innocence. If I were the traitor I would waited until at least one more person claimed, since I would have no way of knowing if the rest of the mafia received extra information as well, and if this was the case I would have been screwed.
Sounds familiar...
BagelBob_old
how am I supposed to hammer when you guys Unvote?
Pasonia

0_o wrote:

With regards to Pas's attack against me, keep in mind I was the second person to claim, and that was after you claimed you knew of Bagel's innocence. If I were the traitor I would waited until at least one more person claimed, since I would have no way of knowing if the rest of the mafia received extra information as well, and if this was the case I would have been screwed.
Not just that, it seems like you're quoting the obvious but you meant more. You know you're accusing LS there, so I'd go ahead and say you're now scumpainting LS by that subtle hint (since LS DID wait until one more person claimed, and that one more person before LS was you.)

You better come up with a far stronger defence of yourself soon, really... This just won't cut it.
0_o

Pasonia wrote:

Not just that, it seems like you're quoting the obvious but you meant more. You know you're accusing LS there, so I'd go ahead and say you're now scumpainting LS by that subtle hint (since LS DID wait until one more person claimed, and that one more person before LS was you.)

You better come up with a far stronger defence of yourself soon, really... This just won't cut it.
So my defense of myself is "stating the obvious?" Shouldn't that mean I'm obviously not mafia? =/

And I wasn't sending subliminal scumplanting messages, I was saying facts. And yes, they do incriminate LadySuburu, which makes her most likely to be the traitor with the knowledge we have.

vote LadySuburu

In fact I am almost positive that LadySuburu is the traitor, even ignoring who you and BagelBob got innocent results for:
-Pas and BagelBob I cleared here
-I don't believe Derekku knew about the "No Result" possibility for Cop investigations until this game (since I am fairly certain this is the first time he has been a cop, and No Result hasn't come up in any of the games him/we have played so far, as far as I know). Also (WIFOM warning) if you a traitor claiming cop, why not give actual results?
-and I'm clear because I know I am

Also Pasonia, No Lynch is not the way to go here, if we don't lynch someone tonight we will be at LyLo tomorrow (unless my protection is successful), and we will have 4 people to choose from instead of 3.
Topic Starter
anonymous_old

0_o wrote:

Also Pasonia, No Lynch is not the way to go here, if we don't lynch someone tonight we will be at LyLo tomorrow (unless my protection is successful), and we will have 4 people to choose from instead of 3.
Two no-lynches brings you to three players, with an extra Night, but only once chance of killing the Mafia (ignoring aux roles).
0_o

strager wrote:

0_o wrote:

Also Pasonia, No Lynch is not the way to go here, if we don't lynch someone tonight we will be at LyLo tomorrow (unless my protection is successful), and we will have 4 people to choose from instead of 3.
Two no-lynches brings you to three players, with an extra Night, but only once chance of killing the Mafia (ignoring aux roles).
Yes, but the 2 people who die those nights are guaranteed to be pro-mafia, whereas if we do a lynch tonight there is a chance we hit the traitor, and we get a second chance we aren't not correct.
The only reason we would want an extra night is for an extra cop investigation. Thing is though, if Derekku really is the cop then I would get NK'd the first night, leaving Derekku open to get NK'd night 2, and that still only leaves us with one investigation.
So unless I'm missing something here, No Lynch won't do us a bit of good.

Also, I don't think the mod is supposed to contribute to the discussion..
LadySuburu
Here's why I see something wrong here. Assuming that I am indeed the traitor, and there's no sanity problems, here's how things would look.

Pasoinia - Mafia with innocent on BB (Mostly clear due to posting this first, and followed by a similar claim.)
BagelBob - Mafia with innocent on Derekku cleared by Pasonia.


Already, if the two above are true, the Mafia win instantly, as the only possible results are me and 0_o.

Not only do we have those two, but we have this as well.

0_o - Mafia Doctor
Derekku - Mafia Cop with unknown on Pasonia


So, in this theoretical situation, We've got not only two/three confirmed innocents, but a cop and a doctor as well?

As another note, I find it humorously funny, though frustrating, that I'm the only one here without any sort of power or "extra knowledge".

Now, I have to write a paper, but I'll be back with more either later tonight or tomorrow. (Or earlier if I can fit a post in.)
Topic Starter
anonymous_old

0_o wrote:

Also, I don't think the mod is supposed to contribute to the discussion..
I can do as I wish. I'm just a ... hallucination. =]
BagelBob_old
Hey Suburu, that's a great set-up you have there, but, umm, it includes you being scum. Do you have anything where someone else is scum?
Pasonia
To cut a long story short it's that I'm only left with 0_o or LS to suspect against. Please, more from LS please. What you did back there was only regurgitating known information...
LadySuburu
Here's some possibilities of setups where I am not scum. Some is pure speculation, and WIFOMY, but it's really all I have.

A: Pasonia's information was false. BB is scum and Derekku is innocent. BB copied Pasonia's statement. Unlikely due to a statement early on when voting for Derekku. (Though, that vote is contradictory.)

B: Bagel's information was false. Derekku is scum.

C: 0_o fake claimed. 0_o is our scum.

D: Pas is scum. strager provided an addition to Pas's PM which contained the version of the role PM bagel was sent, with no name attached. (Possibly with name attached, would work too.) Pas claimed first to "confirm" self as town, and chose to claim BB innocent.

I have nothing solid, and having no abilities nothing much else to give. Those are the only situations I can think of as possible.

Final WIFOM statement: If I were scum, why not have claimed similar to Pasonia? Scum know who is and is not innocent.

Meh.
BagelBob_old
Ahem, yes, that first vote came because I had yet to talk to strager. At first I thought "innocent" meant traitor since, you know, this is crazy Mafia and we are the Mafia, so Guilty would mean one of us. strager cleared it up. That conversation ended with strager telling me that I couldn't post "PANTS PANTS PANTS PANTS".

I'd like to assume that strager was telling the truth, as otherwise he would be a Bastard.

I know option A to not be the correct set-up, and it looks like a majority thinks similarly.
I'd like to believe option B to be false, as I'd like to believe that strager is not a Bastard.
I'll give it a 3% chance of being true.
I have no way to prove or disprove option C. I'll give it a 45% chance of being true.

I'd like to append option D, then refute it. The basic set-up here is that the cop has both a doctor and someone who can confirm the cop's innocence. I'd say it's possible that Pasonia received a list of Everyone's roll. It would make story-sense because the Traitor is one of us, so should know us well. I further think that since this is crazy mafia, strager might have made the doctor insane. Or the option where he kills if his protection fails. That's what I would have done anyway. This is further supported, but not confirmed, by Derekku getting roleblocked. (I'm pretty sure that's what happened)
With only a 1 in 4 chance of hitting the cop, this game would be a 75% win chance for the town on day 1 and probably even higher on day 2 (ignoring day 2, unless of course the Traitor AND the doctor killed N0, in which case there would be no day 2) anyway, that ends my append of "if the Traitor is Pasonia, he knows more than just my role" story

Now, I think it is unlikely that Pasonia is lying because she choose me to Buddy with me, and I mean come on; that's totally out of character. Unless he spent those last two games making me think he hates me personally and really doesn't, in which case that's extremely something. I'll give it a 2% chance.
0_o

BagelBob wrote:

I further think that since this is crazy mafia, strager might have made the doctor insane. Or the option where he kills if his protection fails. That's what I would have done anyway.
I protected myself the first night and I'm still here, so that second option isn't the case.

Nonetheless, very interesting theory..
unvote
Pasonia
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Derekku
The traitor getting a list of our roles and roleblocking my scan DOES seem likely (and something that strager would do).

Hmm..
Pasonia

Derekku Chan wrote:

The traitor getting a list of our roles and roleblocking my scan DOES seem likely (and something that strager would do).

Hmm..
Okay then, Derekku, what's the use of a Cop Role if it's already told to the Traitor? Won't the Traitor then kill the cop on N0 instead of leaving us a chance like this?

Besides, if it's possible that Traitor Kills N0, what are the chances of a successful doctor protect? Then you're implying you have to be both a doctor and a cop in order to protect yourself N0?
Derekku

Pasonia wrote:

Okay then, Derekku, what's the use of a Cop Role if it's already told to the Traitor? Won't the Traitor then kill the cop on N0 instead of leaving us a chance like this?

Besides, if it's possible that Traitor Kills N0, what are the chances of a successful doctor protect? Then you're implying you have to be both a doctor and a cop in order to protect yourself N0?
Hmm I dunno. I'm just thinking along the lines that this is CRAZY mafia and that strager can host it however he wants. Maybe the traitor wasn't allowed to kill N0? I really don't know. ._.;
0_o

Pasonia wrote:

1. Why are you flip-flopping on the matter? First you say that no lynch is not the way to go, THEN you proceeded to perform an unvote yourself.
What? We have 36 hours to make a decision, and me unvoting means I want a no-lynch??

2. Why are you so intent on pushing votes on LS? You made that intention extremely clear with this:

[Quote of my vote count]

You helped us highlight an L-1, thank you very much. But this is very clear as day you're trying very hard to get LS lynched.
So... me posting a vote count means I'm trying to get LadySuburu lynched.. this makes no sense?

While I do not trust that LS is cleared yet, I am of a strong opinion on the matter of you being the traitor. Your eagerness to push a vote and then suddenly backing out is making your case weaker in my eyes, and your second unvote has forced my hand. You seemed like you didn't want to deal the finishing blow; I can't think of a reason other than you being a traitor as the only plausible reason behind your flippy-floppiness.
I unvoted because BagelBob made a good case, am I not allowed to change my opinion if someone presents an argument that makes more sense than mine, and blindly follow my own convictions? If I recall correctly, that's exactly one of the things you accused me of after CM1.

Pasonia wrote:

Derekku Chan wrote:

The traitor getting a list of our roles and roleblocking my scan DOES seem likely (and something that strager would do).

Hmm..
Okay then, Derekku, what's the use of a Cop Role if it's already told to the Traitor? Won't the Traitor then kill the cop on N0 instead of leaving us a chance like this?

Besides, if it's possible that Traitor Kills N0, what are the chances of a successful doctor protect? Then you're implying you have to be both a doctor and a cop in order to protect yourself N0?
1) We don't know if there was a kill N0, I but I'm guessing no since the game is so small to begin with, and if there was a kill we would be at LyLo on the first day
2) If the traitor is a role-blocker, then it doesn't matter if Derekku is a cop because he can block him every night anyway.

I actually think Bagel's "knowledgeable traitor" idea makes a lot of sense. Seeing as this is Crazy Mafia, don't you think it would be wayy too easy to have 2 knowledgeable townies CONFIRMING innocence of another, as well as a Cop and Doctor? There has got to be something more going on here.
Pasonia
Consider this...
If Traitor was allowed to kill N0, then we'll be Day 1 LyLo. =_=

Anyway, yea, as of current information on Day 1 I clear BB and DChan, so only 0_o and LS remains.

The behavior of 0_o makes me doubly sure that I've got our Traitor; if he dies and one of us gets killed, then LS is the only option left to us.

The only way my claim can be disproved is if both 0_o and LS dies on Day/Night 1.
0_o

Pasonia wrote:

Assuming any one of the remaining three (myself BB and LS) were scum, and we lynch them after surviving D1 then D2 it's almost open season for the remaining Innocents to attack the scum. I firmly believe that at least BB and LS are not stupid enough to leave themselves in the open.
I was just reading through and I'm having trouble understanding this statement (post is here), could you or someone else who gets it paraphrase?
Pasonia
I'll paraphrase that.

If you want to say myself or BB or LS are scum, then by the way we three are acting now the remaining Mafia would vote the obvious, the traitor. Lynching/killing them (0_o and DChan) assuming they both bore actual roles as Mafia would almost certainly mean game over and a town loss (yet again).

But this is only and only IF myself, BB or LS are scum, and it's certain for now that we aren't scum.

I have explained before why this is a highly improbable scenario and why 0_o is the likeliest to be scum given his flip-flops on his voting. Don't give me the "first vote is random" crap, you'd have stuck by it if you wanted LS dead but when I unvoted you also followed suit.

So I'm only telling you how unlikely it is that any of the three of us (exclusive of 0_o and DChan) are scum given the way we've acted on this phase.
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