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Stacking the Deck - (Game Over - Town Win)

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fartownik
2,189 posts
Joined December 2008
fartownik
I'm fine with lynching Dake. Also you (Dake) just posted something again and didn't even bother to repond for the vote pieguy just thrown on you.

Vote: DakeDekaane

We also gotta decide whether we take a use of RB's Vigilante tonight. There's plenty of possible scenarios how it could go:

1. If Dake flips Town:
We're in 5-3 town-to-scum ratio + a possible nightkill gives it 4-3 ratio, which means we're in LyLo. We might not like using RB's Vig in this scenario as if he also mislynches, we lose (but if we do use it, we're able to get away from LyLo).

2. If Dake flips scum:
We're in 6-2 town-to-scum ratio + a possible nightkill gives it 5-2 ratio. An additional Vig kill if hit Town would give it 4-2 ratio, which means MyLo, but if hit scum it's 5-1 ratio, and it's already a good advantage. This scenario is safer if we want to use Vigilante tonight and might end up beneficial for us.
DakeDekaane
osu! Alumni
3,500 posts
Joined February 2012
DakeDekaane
What should I respond if he already stated his reasons (I think they're the same as before) if I already responded? If we weren't in such a dangerous stage, I could think in both of you (pieguy and fart) being scum disguised as PR, but this is just WIFOM.

Now that, if both of you are really town, I may be in L-1 or even lynched in a few time, now I understand what NH meant with scum controlling half of the votes, silly me.

I'd prefer to read a bit more from the others before making a hurry decision like that, also I'd want to know your scum suspects, it shouldn't be hard as there are only 5 of what you could suspect right?
pieguyn
2,020 posts
Joined May 2009
pieguyn

DakeDekaane wrote:

What should I respond if he already stated his reasons (I think they're the same as before) if I already responded? If we weren't in such a dangerous stage, I could think in both of you (pieguy and fart) being scum disguised as PR, but this is just WIFOM.
just saying, that's impossible. if scum had 2 PRs and both claimed PR we'd get 6 total PR claims..unless someone else lied for no reason like Hika did, but I doubt it @_@

As for my suspects, nothing's changed, cause everyone who died were people I thought were town anyway. This limits the possibilities of who the Traitor is though, since it wasn't NH. IMO we should just pick someone who's acting suspicious without regard to how they're relating to other players, since it doesn't seem like they're trying to get the mafia's attention.
DakeDekaane
osu! Alumni
3,500 posts
Joined February 2012
DakeDekaane
What I was trying to say is there'd be no scum PR, but again, WIFOM, I tend to go pretty paranoid when I have no good reads.

So I'm your only suspect? Anybody else? If scum are in the non-PR, they'd try their best to not get suspected, just saying.
Raging Bull
2,809 posts
Joined June 2010
Raging Bull
Like Tanz and Haneii perhaps. I'm still rather suspicious of Haneii. Just because of perhaps trying to look town when NH suggested that plan.



And I won't shoot if we lynch town. I'll shoot perhaps if we get scum.
Tanzklaue
1,151 posts
Joined December 2010
Tanzklaue
Haneii is pretty town for me. she didn't get tunnelvisioned (like me, hehe...), and always kept a calm head. so yea, not much reason to suspect her atm.

Jinxy is pretty null. except defending NH, he didn't do all that much. except one other thing. attacking DD, and rightfully so, I believe.

DD flip flopped on NH, which seems really suspicious. also his defending now seems desperate, though I wouldn't tunnel too much on him yet, since lynching someone so early at the day isn't helpful either.

irre... I really don't know. is he a bad townie? is he the traitor? I don't think that he is straight up scum, I think judging from his playstyle he would've flipped his shit a lot more when he was pressured. he also is (besides me) the only non PR that voted NH and is still alive.

so... the three scumsuspects should be Jinxy, DD and irre? I don't buy that. 1 of them? pretty much yes. 2 of them? very likely. all three of them? unbelievable, I think one of the townreads is scum. RB and Rantai are confirmed townies, so pieguy, fart or haneii. I think pieguy told the truth, since him lying would mean that fart lied as well, and I just think that it is very unlikely for two scums to hide amongst the PRs.

so, either haneii or fart.
Tanzklaue
1,151 posts
Joined December 2010
Tanzklaue
in retrospect, we should have jailkept (english grammar orz) BRBP, as he was our only 100% confirmed PR, and if he got jailkept then pieguy would've been also 100% confirmed :/
pieguyn
2,020 posts
Joined May 2009
pieguyn

DakeDekaane wrote:

What I was trying to say is there'd be no scum PR, but again, WIFOM, I tend to go pretty paranoid when I have no good reads.

So I'm your only suspect? Anybody else? If scum are in the non-PR, they'd try their best to not get suspected, just saying.
No scum PR is impossible - even if they put daychat and recruit the traitor, the last one has to be a PR

My other suspect remains the same, JInxy. Next on my list is Haneii, but I think Haneii is mostly pro- town.

Likewise, I don't think there'd be 2 PR claims who end up being mafia. That would require 4 town PRs and we only got 4 claims total, so that would imply 2 townies stayed silent, which I don't think is very likely (if it was 1, maybe).

I wonder now if town actually claimed all their PRs. Hika didn't so perhaps someone else didn't either, for whatever reason. In that case, there'd be 2 mafia PRs, one of which claimed PR. If I was mafia, I would enable daychat, so I doubt there's really 3 mafia PRs (plus we only got 4 claims anyway). Since we still haven't seen a Tracker, perhaps there is one and he/she just didn't claim. If that's the case, I'd be suspicious of fartownik cause I doubt there'd be a tracker and a watcher on the same side, plus all the other claimed PRs are confirmed anyway.

Actually, I've got an idea to possibly clear fartownik. I can just target one of two people at night picked randomly (ofc announcing the two possibilities first), and then he targets one of them. If he's really a watcher he should be able to guess who I targeted 100% of the time (if I didn't JK the one he picked, he guesses the other one). Now this only works 50% of the time, but at least it works that much of the time, we can try it multiple nights in a row, and we'll have one mafia if it fails even once. Alternatively we could have any number of PRs target a certain person, and then have him watch that person, and produce the full list of PRs who targeted that person D3. It might just be better for fartownik to play normally though...

@Tanz: man that's a good idea, why didn't we think of that earlier ><
Tanzklaue
1,151 posts
Joined December 2010
Tanzklaue
pieguy, I think you misunderstood the concept. scum could chose no PR at all, but instead a power like dachat, and own still would gain a PR.

also, in both cases of you and fart lying or only fart lying we still would have the right amount of town PRs. there is no reason to assume a hidden town PR.
Tanzklaue
1,151 posts
Joined December 2010
Tanzklaue
daychat* town* all dem typos man :/
Rantai
1,000 posts
Joined July 2010
Rantai
*sigh*

I told you not to shoot anyone RB :<
pieguyn
2,020 posts
Joined May 2009
pieguyn
Town will be given the same ammount of powers as PRs that the mafia chooses and 2 additional PRs regardless.
I thought this meant that town only gets a PR if mafia chooses a PR
mod: does town still get a PR if mafia chooses daychat or to recruit the traitor?
Tanzklaue
1,151 posts
Joined December 2010
Tanzklaue

Sakura wrote:

This game will be using the "Stacking the Deck" setup, there will be 3 scum, one of them is a Traitor and they don't know who it is, yet, Mafia may choose up to 3 of the following powers that they want, Town will be given the same ammount of powers as PRs that the mafia chooses and 2 additional PRs regardless.
it's wonky wording, but it says that chosen powers by mafia translate into PRs for town.
Raging Bull
2,809 posts
Joined June 2010
Raging Bull

Rantai wrote:

*sigh*

I told you not to shoot anyone RB :<

;w; You said that's what you would do
Raging Bull
2,809 posts
Joined June 2010
Raging Bull

Tanzklaue wrote:

in retrospect, we should have jailkept (english grammar orz) BRBP, as he was our only 100% confirmed PR, and if he got jailkept then pieguy would've been also 100% confirmed :/
Well no one else suggested that. No one knew he was a cop PR so really we would probably have lost either pieguy for more WIFOM or watcher who is helpful as cop.
DakeDekaane
osu! Alumni
3,500 posts
Joined February 2012
DakeDekaane
@pieguy: I can see a small hole there, as you'll be announcing who you'd jail, I'm assuming you'll pick a non-PR, scum will likely kill another VT or even another PR, which in this case we should avoid any lose to town, we could do so if we lynch scum today, otherwise, we shouldn't waste another Night doing so, as if both are truly town, well have no good leads in what to do after that.

Rather than confirming PRs, we'd focus on lynching scum than betting everything in Night Actions.
Irreversible
osu! Alumni
4,317 posts
Joined December 2011
Irreversible
Lol i'm sorry guys that i didn^t post anything These days, i'm currently in a language stay which is very busy, i try to get These things clear today evening
Rantai
1,000 posts
Joined July 2010
Rantai
Looking back; Who was actually on board and willing to go ahead with NH's plan without any hesitation?

I'm of the mind that at least 1 and likely 2 of the scum were on board with this plan (especially easier to follow when they can say that there is no point holding back after people have already started claiming).

In order of claiming;

NH - For (obviously)
Jinxy - For (with some numbers and stuff)
RB - Neutral (reluctant, didn't post of first reply but didn't exactly oppose it) [not that it matters, he's confirmed]
Rantai - Against [doesn't matter, confirmed town]
Fart - For (more or less, following the flow - claimed on first reply)
Hika - For (same as above)
DD - Neutral? (claimed on first reply with a post that seemed to be against it, but more of a pointing out worst case scenarios)
Irre - For (not first reply but ignorance plays a factor)
Tanz - Against (heavy questioning)
Haneii - Against (heavy questioning)
rEdo - Against (reasoned why it should be done) [doesn't matter, confirmed town]
Konei - Inactive [doesn't matter, confirmed town]

--

Jinxy at least explained his thinking and was the first to support it however his reasoning was flawed as the benefits were truly in favour of mafia (in retrospect this mass claim should have happened on day 2).

Fart is a claimed PR so there is more weight behind his claim but because of the nature of the game - we have already identified our 2 mandatory PR's leaving both hika and fart as null tells until further notice.

Hika is in an identical situation (coincidentally they claimed back to back) BUT Hika's sudden PR claim circumstance lends to some more thinking. (now pieguy obviously)

Oh DD. I will agree he is currently the most suspicious out of the bunch due to a number of factors: while stating his -somewhat- concerns for the plan, still went along with it anyway on the first reply, looking at the actual votes on NH - given that 4 confirmed town were on him (the scum knew they were town), they had no reason to get on this bandwagon. Couple with the fact he was suspicious of NH (and Hika) but didn't vote at all, this is a curious set of situations. Additionally; "but still we could have town PRs protecting themselves from scum eyes by claiming they're not PR" makes that statement and then that exact situation appears later down the track is suspect in itself, especially when he contradicts his own sentiment by suspecting the PR claimant.

I don't even know what to say about Irreversible. Completely null.

Those who were against the idea; I'm going to give a slight lean towards town for now.
Rantai
1,000 posts
Joined July 2010
Rantai
After thoughts: RB/BRBP aren't necessarily the mandatory PR's - but with 2 confirmed PR's now, the other 2 are up in the air (ie cannot be confirmed until a scum PR is revealed).

After thoughts 2: 3 confirmed town on NH bandwagon due to RB being the hammerer.
Raging Bull
2,809 posts
Joined June 2010
Raging Bull
We can totally test pieguy if you want. I can shoot him and he JKs me ;D


But if we have 4 PR, mafia probably chose day chat + traitor. I think day chat is very powerful if they have at least 3 people to coordinate their plans.
pieguyn
2,020 posts
Joined May 2009
pieguyn
If what I was thinking all along was wrong, then that's possible
I'm just going to wait till we have a ruling on what I said since it's 3 in the morning and I can't think about it any more ><
Jinxy
2,777 posts
Joined February 2009
Jinxy
I still feel Haneii's posts are slightly suspicious RE: Massclaim, there's a fine line between not being too tunnel-visioned and flip flopping. Her last post (44 hours ago, too, but I'm giving the benefit of the doubt since there was 24h of night) kinda reads oddly to me too, the "we're" doesn't sound right if she meant it as "town" nor "mafia". Would be nice if she explained that post.

Dake feels more scummy to me now, Rantai made a pretty good observation that he's flipping around for quite a few things.

Irre is still an enigma, I'll see what he has to post since he said he was going to.

for farto and pieguy, farto specifically confirmed pieguy in a way so maybe farto might have a chance of being scum and lying to get pieguy's trust, but for pieguy to be scum means both have to be lying which seems way too risky for scum.
Tanzklaue
1,151 posts
Joined December 2010
Tanzklaue

Jinxy wrote:

for farto and pieguy, farto specifically confirmed pieguy in a way so maybe farto might have a chance of being scum and lying to get pieguy's trust, but for pieguy to be scum means both have to be lying which seems way too risky for scum.
but at this point especially, or since hika claimed to be honest, it seems like a risk worth taking. town cannot risk lynching a real PR, like, almost never is that something that isn't absolute horrible. so if we can't be sure of them being scum, then we will be superhesitant to lynch them.

that said, I belief that pieguy is not scum. not so sure about fart, so we should keep an eye on the situation.
Raging Bull
2,809 posts
Joined June 2010
Raging Bull
Holy fuck, you changed your name
Sakura
osu! Alumni
7,979 posts
Joined March 2010
Topic Starter
Sakura
Vote Count 2.01

DakeDekaane (2) - pieguy1372, fartownik

Not Voting (7) - Jinxy, DakeDekaane, Haneii, Irreversible, Tanzklaue, Rantai, Raging Bull

With 9 Alive it takes 5 to lynch.

Please let me know if you see any mistakes.

If they pick daychat town gets an additional PR yes, same if they recruit the traitor.
Jinxy
2,777 posts
Joined February 2009
Jinxy

Raging Bull wrote:

Holy fuck, you changed your name
SPOILER
fartownik
2,189 posts
Joined December 2008
fartownik

Tanzklaue wrote:

Jinxy wrote:

for farto and pieguy, farto specifically confirmed pieguy in a way so maybe farto might have a chance of being scum and lying to get pieguy's trust, but for pieguy to be scum means both have to be lying which seems way too risky for scum.
but at this point especially, or since hika claimed to be honest, it seems like a risk worth taking. town cannot risk lynching a real PR, like, almost never is that something that isn't absolute horrible. so if we can't be sure of them being scum, then we will be superhesitant to lynch them.

that said, I belief that pieguy is not scum. not so sure about fart, so we should keep an eye on the situation.
I am not confirmed Town in your eyes, indeed, and there's still a *technical* possibility that I'm scum, but what makes you think so? I'm trying to do the best I can to eliminate all the possible disadvantages for Town at the moment, I'm also trying to prove myself Town. If there's a way you want me to use my PR so I can prove myself, please give me an idea and I will do it. What pieguy suggested might actually work, but it also wastes the usage of my PR. If there's no better way then I guess we can do this though.
Haneii
1,203 posts
Joined November 2009
Haneii
@Jinxy: typo. Should be "were" (my phone tries to autocorrect it to we're now too. Odd).

Jinxy wrote:

Her last post (44 hours ago, too, but I'm giving the benefit of the doubt since there was 24h of night)
And a Happy Canada to you too.
However, I apologize for not letting you all know I would be inactive for a bit.

I'll post my thoughts in a bit once I get to a computer.
Haneii
1,203 posts
Joined November 2009
Haneii
Day*

And this is why I hate posting from my phone
Haneii
1,203 posts
Joined November 2009
Haneii
Fartownik is more likely town because I think mafia would be more hesitant to claim PR.
@fartownik: Is there a possibility that no one visited the person you watched and the mod worded it as "No result", or does the mod usually tell the watcher "No one targeted this person last night"?

Until that's confirmed I'm still suspicious of pieguy. (From most to least suspicious: I'm thinking Jinxy, pieguy, Irr, and/or Dakedekaane could be scum)

Irr: I actually don't have much of read on Irr but everyone else is either town/leaning town or leaning scum. I'm starting to suspect you're traitor that's left out of the loop because the other two mafia have day chat and can coordinate their posts and appear proactive.

Pieguy: Pieguy hasn't been confirmed town for me but I do believe mafia chose another power so you having a PR adds up.

Jinxy: Jinxy says just enough. Most of it is gameplay explanations/plan elaborations and recaps.

DakeDekaane: I'm not as strongly suspicious of Dake as everyone else seems to be, just seems paranoid to me. He points out valid points (He gets +1 towards town for pointing out flaws whenever he see's them). Doesn't follow through with his suspicions, but again, not as suspicious to me as the other 3.


@ the power roles: Are you guys going to use your roles to try confirming each other again? How about you target to get info on mafia/mafia activity?
Raging Bull
2,809 posts
Joined June 2010
Raging Bull
Fart checked who i hit and pieguy JKd him.
fartownik
2,189 posts
Joined December 2008
fartownik

Haneii wrote:

Fartownik is more likely town because I think mafia would be more hesitant to claim PR.
@fartownik: Is there a possibility that no one visited the person you watched and the mod worded it as "No result", or does the mod usually tell the watcher "No one targeted this person last night"?
I watched rEdo whom died of RB's Vig kill the night before. I got No Result so pieguy really must've roleblocked me, because if he didn't I'd see RB targeting rEdo. And RB is a conf Town because of 2 kills happening during the night.
Irreversible
osu! Alumni
4,317 posts
Joined December 2011
Irreversible
i requested a replacement, hope to see your guys in another game again D: sorry for These circumstances :x
Irreversible
osu! Alumni
4,317 posts
Joined December 2011
Irreversible
^ because of this language stay ,and I have no time to check the things here frequently x:
Sakura
osu! Alumni
7,979 posts
Joined March 2010
Topic Starter
Sakura
Searching for a replacement for Irreversible...
DakeDekaane
osu! Alumni
3,500 posts
Joined February 2012
DakeDekaane
As it seems you're more focused in confirm your PRs than finding scum, so I'll propose this, each of our PRs should target anybody, they won't tell who they are going to target, if we plan something like in D1, scum will be acting with too much freedom, and by doing this, they won't have any advantage imo, and even make their NK fail. The results will be reported in D3: if there are no weird/impossible interaction between PRs, then they will be likely confirmed, in this case, pieguy/fart should claim first, then RB as it's the only one confirmed town.

Vote: No Lynch

Even in the worst case, we'll end 4:3, yes, LyLo, but we'll have 100% chance of hitting scum, as scummy people will clearly stand out, even find a liar in the PRs, if there is any.

Obviously the No Lynch can be changed if we catch a scum suspect.

Those who want me lynched, feel free to do so, but I'm still curious how some of you don't have a second scum suspect besides me and everybody seems to be against me. It seems Irre won't tell his scum suspects to make a bit clearer this, we could wait for his replacement though.
Raging Bull
2,809 posts
Joined June 2010
Raging Bull
Honestly, I'm still unsure about fart/pieguy after I realized my plan was flawed. I could instead shoot pieguy and he JKs me. That would probably be better. I'm more curious of Irre now. Perhaps he's asking for replacement after getting mafia this time? Perhaps it seems cruel for me to use his inactivity as a way to suspect him.
Rantai
1,000 posts
Joined July 2010
Rantai
Even in the worst case, we'll end 4:3, yes, LyLo, but we'll have 100% chance of hitting scum, as scummy people will clearly stand out, even find a liar in the PRs, if there is any.
Would you like to elaborate with some numbers on how this'll work. I am both too lazy to calculate it for you and I am curious as to whether this is a desperate plan (anti-town as hell too due to many factors) to keep you off the chopping block or a thought out plan with good reasoning as to benefit the town.
Raging Bull
2,809 posts
Joined June 2010
Raging Bull
I'm not sure why, but I'm still kinda suspicious of fart and pieguy. Pieguy/Hika for that claim out of nowhere and fart for saying watcher and not tracker. Of course host can add variation, but the wiki page stack the deck mentions only tracker. Perhaps two safe claims for scum to hide in PR? Just some thought :S
Raging Bull
2,809 posts
Joined June 2010
Raging Bull
Even OP doesn't make sense to me

Changing a goon to ninja will make kills submitted look as though they target no one to both tracker and watcher.

If a ninja submit's a kill, they will appear as targetting no one to trackers only.

Watchers on the other hand won't matter in this sentence because watchers can't see ninja's action in the first place. Watchers would only see a person get targetted.

Either OP needs fixing or fart/pie lied
Tanzklaue
1,151 posts
Joined December 2010
Tanzklaue
fart, I never outright said that you are scum. I just said that you are more likely to be onethan pieguy, due to roles.

an 100% confirmation of you is basically impossible at this point. I think we should do what RB said and confirm pieguy. you should target whoever you feel like, basically, and play like a normal unconfirmed watcher, since there isn't much else you could do to proof your townieness.

also DD brought up the interesting point of fart and pieguy directly tunneling on him. I think that it is suspicious that our two PRs who probably expect most people to never ever suspect them seriously do something like tunneling directly on one person?

given that DD is the mainsuspect, and yea he flip flops, this is still a valid point. of course he could be scum that tries to wriggle himself out. or he is a townie that really just wants to point out how dumb tunneling is at this point.
Tanzklaue
1,151 posts
Joined December 2010
Tanzklaue
RB, in an open set up, and if it is forced, it is supereasy for watcher to fakeclaim.

oh there was a nightkill? I just watched over this person that got killed and player x targeted him/her! lynch him!

I mean, sure, he is most likely not alive anymore the next day, but his deed is done.

we are all suspicious of fart and pieguy, but we shouldn't let others slip by either. I think Haneii is pretty town, at least to me. Jinxy is null, maybe leaning slightly scum. DD is scummy, yes, but like I said, he is too convenient to really be scum. and irre... well, let's hope his replacement will be more helpful than this mess.
Jinxy
2,777 posts
Joined February 2009
Jinxy

Raging Bull wrote:

Watchers on the other hand won't matter in this sentence because watchers can't see ninja's action in the first place. Watchers would only see a person get targetted.
Well, it just means the watcher doesn't see the ninja kill if he managed to watch the NK target. That's basically how they work, and also why you asked fart to try and watch rEdo while you shot him
Raging Bull
2,809 posts
Joined June 2010
Raging Bull
To confirm if pieguy is JK.
Raging Bull
2,809 posts
Joined June 2010
Raging Bull
Also I'm saying the way OP worded it is suspicious to me enough for scum to fake claim from it.
Tanzklaue
1,151 posts
Joined December 2010
Tanzklaue
it would be really cool if we had a list of PRs town could get like the list that scum has...

because except vigilante, non of the claimed PRs (and BRBPs flipped cop) was in the original set up. I think the strength of the set up was while there is the confusion as to what scum chose and how many powers they chose, town at least knows who could aid them. which means much less likely "convenient claims" like the both here.
Tanzklaue
1,151 posts
Joined December 2010
Tanzklaue
but please, sakura, don't post a list now, it's way way too late for that and it would really ruin the game.
Raging Bull
2,809 posts
Joined June 2010
Raging Bull
She doesn't plan to. She already posted it in second page.
Raging Bull
2,809 posts
Joined June 2010
Raging Bull
Yet everything just goes back to OP for me.


Shoot:Sakura
Tanzklaue
1,151 posts
Joined December 2010
Tanzklaue
sakura biggest scum suspect lolol

but really, I think she missed the point of stack the deck as a set up. there weren't JK and watchers for a reason. in fact the only doctorlike role had the twist to it that it would die if it used its power to protect somebody.

also the masons as two confirmed townies that are added to the 2-5 PRs of town. in the original set up, innocent child aka modconfirmed townie was one of the PRs town could get from the 2-5.

anyway, instead of criticizing sakura, we should focus on the game.
Raging Bull
2,809 posts
Joined June 2010
Raging Bull
I'm not really criticizing her. It's just that I found that the way fart and pie claim could be fake claim with the way Sakura worded the OP.
Sakura
osu! Alumni
7,979 posts
Joined March 2010
Topic Starter
Sakura
fartownik wanted a closed setup so that's what I gave, to avoid people using the wiki to find out the roles I stated that the roles on the wiki may or may not appear and that roles not on the wiki may or may not appear, If watcher targets the ninja's target even tho the target dies the watcher sees no one, hope that's clear enough.

Vote Count 2.01

DakeDekaane (2) - pieguy1372, fartownik

No Lynch (1) - DakeDekaane

Not Voting (6) - Jinxy, Haneii, Irreversible, Tanzklaue, Rantai, Raging Bull

With 9 Alive it takes 5 to lynch.

Please let me know if you see any mistakes.
fartownik
2,189 posts
Joined December 2008
fartownik
@RB: 'tunneling'? I've stated 3 of my scumspects - they were all 3 equally null for me, Dake was one of them. pieguy voted him thus I have no objections not to do the same, I have to vote someone in the end. He seems scummy to me so I vote him, I don't really care how that looks. I learned to listen to my guts from previous games, so I just do it again with a hopefully positive outcome. If you have a better read/good gut feeling on someone - let me know, I might rethink my vote over.
Raging Bull
2,809 posts
Joined June 2010
Raging Bull
Tanz said tunneling, not me :<
fartownik
2,189 posts
Joined December 2008
fartownik
Gah, let's just say that post was directed to both of you. You posted a real lot in the last hour :p
Raging Bull
2,809 posts
Joined June 2010
Raging Bull
My post was directed mainly at how OP was confusing and made me suspect you and pieguy for possible fake claim.


Anyways, I'm curious on people saying DD flip flop, which posts are you guys talking about?
fartownik
2,189 posts
Joined December 2008
fartownik
Page 19. Read his posts from there and then concentrate on the previous ones. He says the NH's plan is anti-town, he didn't even do the same when he put his doubts in it for the first time (in the first posts after NH proposed his tactic). He just suddenly realized NH's tactic is anti-town, pretty convenient I must say. Pushing him (NH) like this is also one of the reasons he got lynched D1.
fartownik
2,189 posts
Joined December 2008
fartownik
Also I'm going to sleep now (skipped sleeping tonight), won't be around for some hours.
pieguyn
2,020 posts
Joined May 2009
pieguyn
...dafuq
0.0

okay I have no idea what to even think anymore @_@ Given a Ninja, I always thought a Watcher was plausible (although fartownik might be mafia still)

DakeDekaane wrote:

Even in the worst case, we'll end 4:3, yes, LyLo, but we'll have 100% chance of hitting scum, as scummy people will clearly stand out, even find a liar in the PRs, if there is any.
where'd you get that from? o.o mafia could still be hiding in PRs or we could mislynch a townie.

We need to hurry up and do something instead of arguing over anything Sakura did w/ the setup. DakeDekaane blamed inactivity the first time I accused him which is a pretty common mafia excuse from what I can remember (hiding behind inactivity, etc.) Also, voting no-lynch is never a good idea unless it's MyLo. JInxy still hasn't been posting very much, which is the same as I remember him always doing as mafia. There hasn't really been very much new information.

Fixed Quote tags, you can always ask me to fix tags for you
-Sakura
pieguyn
2,020 posts
Joined May 2009
pieguyn
EBWOP: dafuq, what happened to my quote o.o

DakeDekaane wrote:

Even in the worst case, we'll end 4:3, yes, LyLo, but we'll have 100% chance of hitting scum, as scummy people will clearly stand out, even find a liar in the PRs, if there is any.
fartownik
2,189 posts
Joined December 2008
fartownik
I've stated my view on the suspects and the possible scenarios depending on what Dake flips. Nothing more to add from here. The non-voters should clarify their suspects and votes right now, otherwise we will stay like this with days of inactivity until the deadline. I really hate such boring mafia parts.
Raging Bull
2,809 posts
Joined June 2010
Raging Bull
I finally found his flip flop. p/2396642/ (Thanks Jinxy)

Still not entirely sure about DD.

DD, why did you say he was town first and then anti town later?
DakeDekaane
osu! Alumni
3,500 posts
Joined February 2012
DakeDekaane
Internet went off some tiime ;~;

Elaborating as you requested:

Suppose we have 4 town and 3 scum, in three scenarios RB shot a townie:

Scenario 1: Scum hit a confirmed town.
1 confirmed (either Rantai/RB)
2 PR (pieguy/fart)
4 non-PR (Haneii/Jinxy/Irre/DD/Tanz)
I'm assuming Tanz is town and the two somehow confirmed too, that left us 3 non-PR (I want to believe so), yes I threw the WIFOM thing, but I'm believing too much in them. Depending on who gets shot, it's easy to lynch by PoE, even if scum is in the 2 somehow unconfirmed PR.

Scenario 2: Scum hit pieguy/fartownik.
2 confirmed (either Rantai/RB)
1 PR (pieguy/fart)
4 non-PR (Haneii/Jinxy/Irre/DD/Tanz)
The less likely as scum would want to make WIFOM. But basically the same as above,

Scenario 3: Scum hit a vanilla:
2 confirmed (either Rantai/RB):
2 PR (pieguy/fart):
3 non-PR (Haneii/Jinxy/Irre/DD/Tanz)
We have scum in PR as it'd be too perfect that the three remaining non-PR are scum together. We'd pick either pieguy/fart looking at their behaviour. Take in mind that if pieguy is scum, fart is scum.

Why I said 100%? Scum needs to convince 1 more people (or 2 in case Traitor isn't recruited). We'll just have to look for the voting pattern.

But that's only if we are 4:3 in D3.

About my flip-flop thingy, I explained a bit below that: p/2397890
fartownik
2,189 posts
Joined December 2008
fartownik
@Dake: concentrate more on the potential targets for the lynch today instead of writing up the possible scenarios of tommorrow. We must focus on minimalizing the possibility of lynching scum today and what you're doing is not helpful at the moment. What are your main scumspects? Also, what do you think about Irre and JInxy?
Rantai
1,000 posts
Joined July 2010
Rantai
So we're just going to assume that the claimed PR are town? No.

The scum will almost definitely hit RB or I because we're confirmed. If they don't then they're shooting themselves in the foot (which is fine by me).

About you PR's; I'd rather RB didn't shoot anyone tonight, pieguy should jail one of us (RB/me) fart, watch one of us (pie, me or RB).

Vote: DD

I've got nothing else to work with.
Raging Bull
2,809 posts
Joined June 2010
Raging Bull
Fine I won't shoot. I'll listen to you this time since I didn't in D1. I don't want to be roasted beef for D3
pieguyn
2,020 posts
Joined May 2009
pieguyn
not shooting is better:
currently 3:6 -> mislynch -> 3:5 -> NK -> 3:4 = LyLo
if you shoot and miss it's 3:3 and we lose ><
even if we lynch mafia, it'd be better to not shoot since it'll be the same thing with one less mafia and one less townie, either way shooting wrong after any mislynch will be a loss.
Tanzklaue
1,151 posts
Joined December 2010
Tanzklaue
hm, I am still unsure about DD.

dammit, jinxy is just one hour away from being prodable ;_; I would've liked him to elaborate on the situation, since he didn't post that much this day.

haneii also didn't post in nearly 2 days, but I think she is town, so no prodding measures for now.

and irre... well I don't think we can prod/pressure him, since he doesn't play anymore.

so effectively we can't get any information out of anyone who didn't already explained himself. I will hold back my vote for now (sorry fart :/), as I think that outright killing DD now is a bad idea.
Tanzklaue
1,151 posts
Joined December 2010
Tanzklaue
also yea, RB shouldn't shoot. maybe if we lynch scum, but even then probably not.
fartownik
2,189 posts
Joined December 2008
fartownik

Tanzklaue wrote:

so effectively we can't get any information out of anyone who didn't already explained himself. I will hold back my vote for now (sorry fart :/), as I think that outright killing DD now is a bad idea.
Then please elaborate. Why not DD? Who else if not him? Just provide something. The lynch is always an open case until the hammer, even with 3 votes on the suspect. If you have some good notices then elaborate.
Tanzklaue
1,151 posts
Joined December 2010
Tanzklaue
we are 9 people. it takes 5 to lynch.

voting DD now would make him L-1, and I don't think we should lynch him yet, as long as we still have over 3 days until the deadline. 3 days in which irre maybe gets replaced and we finally can get something out of him that makes sense. 3 days in which someone might slip. 3 days to discuss theories, to find out more. it wouldn't benefit town if we would let this time slip by unused.

I think it would be nice to hear explained thoughts from everyone, and how they think about lynching DD preemptively, stuff like that. voting DD doesn't make sense, because I don't think that even more pressure on him would lead to anything productive from his side.

we still can lynch DD later if nobody else is as suspicios as him. but for the moment, I think we should at least not end the day right now.
pieguyn
2,020 posts
Joined May 2009
pieguyn
that's a good idea, I'm perfectly fine with that :P I just hope it doesn't become inactive...
I definitely think we should wait for Irre to be replaced, cause that'll be one extra piece of information we can get as opposed to ending day now. the only problem is, at this rate replacing Irre might be impossible ><
Jinxy
2,777 posts
Joined February 2009
Jinxy
I don't get the DD scenario honestly, that seems to be running on the assumption that we No Lynch today and RB misfires, which will bring us to lylo tomorrow, and we'd hit the same thing if we mislynch and RB doesn't fire.

Also, assuming we lynch scum, it goes to 2:6, NK brings it to 2:5, and a misfire (71%) drops it to 2:4 which is mylo and effectively 2:3 lylo since the best course of action is no-lynch. Yeah, not shooting tonight seems good.
Sakura
osu! Alumni
7,979 posts
Joined March 2010
Topic Starter
Sakura
Vote Count 2.02

(L-2) DakeDekaane (3) - pieguy1372, fartownik, Rantai

No Lynch (1) - DakeDekaane

Not Voting (5) - Jinxy, Haneii, CalignoBot, Tanzklaue, Raging Bull

With 9 Alive it takes 5 to lynch.

Please let me know if you see any mistakes

CalignoBot replaces Irreversible, effective immediately
fartownik
2,189 posts
Joined December 2008
fartownik
Welcome.
Amianki
85 posts
Joined January 2011
Amianki
Greetings.

I will read up at some point later today. My brain isn't in thinking mode for the day yet.

I've skimmed a bit of the past page before I went to sleep last night and it looks like the situation's a bit involved. If someone could summarize what that situation is right now, it would help my reread.
fartownik
2,189 posts
Joined December 2008
fartownik
We all claimed our roles in D1. From alive, we have: 2 confirmed Townies (Raging Bull as Vigilante and Rantai as Mason), 2 claimed, not-yet confirmed PRs (me as Watcher and pieguy as Jailkeeper) plus 5 unconfirmed Vanilla Townies (JInxyjem, Haneii, DakeDekaane, Tanzklaue, you).

Day1's lynch was a Vanilla Townie - NoHitter whom came up with the plan of massclaiming. N1 RB used his Vigilante and missed, killing another Vanilla Townie - rEdo. There was also a third kill from the Mafia themselves, a Mason + Cop (a confirmed Townie) - BRBP.

We're struggling about today's lynch at the moment, leaning for DakeDekaane with 3 votes on him already (it takes 5 vote to hammer and end the day). We were waiting for Irreversible's replacement before hammering though, and here you are, the fifth element ( 8-) ). Reading all the pages is a must if you want to catch up with the game, we will give you some time for that. Please provide your read on the situation when you're done.
fartownik
2,189 posts
Joined December 2008
fartownik
EBWOP: The current count of alignments is: 3 Mafia (including 1 Traitor) and 6 Townies (including 2 100% confirmed Townies).
Amianki
85 posts
Joined January 2011
Amianki
Excellent. That helps me quite a bit, actually. There's a few notes I have just from that information before I start reading. I have no idea at this point if they were already discussed or not, so bear with me.

1. PR lynch today is bad for obvious reasons. If this HAS been discussed, the first person to bring this up gets townpoints from me.

2. Since there was no extra information given about the Watcher or Jailkeeper, I'm assuming that the former saw nothing (and it's already obvious the jailkeeper didn't protect anyone). I'm going to think about this while I read; I have a few ideas on how to go about this N2, but this relies a lot on my own reads, so I won't go into it quite yet.

3. I would roughly estimate that one unproven PR is town and the other is scum. I can see both of them being town, but I don't see both of them being scum as very likely.

Alright, going to read up. I'll give my updated thoughts when I'm finished.
Sakura
osu! Alumni
7,979 posts
Joined March 2010
Topic Starter
Sakura
In the meantime, there's a few hours less than 3 days until deadline (2 days 20 hours to be exact) if you need i can extend the deadline by 24 hours to give you time to catch up
Amianki
85 posts
Joined January 2011
Amianki
That shouldn't be necessary; I'm already halfway through. Chances are I'll be fully caught up within the next 1-2 hours.
Amianki
85 posts
Joined January 2011
Amianki
Okay, going to take a break for a little bit now that I'm done with reading Day 1.

Here are my current reads:

fartownik and pieguy1372 are both probably town. I can't really choose one that's more likely to be scum if there is one between them: fartownik's claim is the single safest one (information roles in general are the safest in this set-up; they literally cannot be confirmed town or scum while alive), while pieguy made scummier stances in day 1.

I disapprove of the current wagon right now.

Haneii is my first choice for scum. Jinxy is my second choice for scum. Tanzklaue is almost certainly town.

I'll get more into these when I have read the rest, and a vote will accompany it. The one thing I've seen held against Dake in day 1 is actually looking more town to me. Yes, he flipped, but the flip is actually town-motivated rather than scum-motivated.

More soon.
Amianki
85 posts
Joined January 2011
Amianki
Day 1 notes:

There's a big problem with NoHitter's version of the plan which makes Jinxy's posts about the advantages useless: Mafia can falsely claim PRs with actually pretty low risk. They know exactly how many PRs the town have, so they just falsely claim how many the town don't have so that it adds up to five. There's virtually no risk in that, and in fact only gives the mafia any kind of risk when the PRs have to be named. Not only that, but it leaves the amount of PRs completely ambiguous for town. Overall, I think this play benefited scum far more than it did town. If the mafia ended up choosing daychat, it would be even easier to manipulate this to their own ends.

Tanzklaue gets townpoints for pointing this logic train out very early. It would have been very easy for scum to go along with this, but he actively went against it.

The other main point given for this massclaim is that scum will be a target after all the PRs die. This is a completely void point, since scum wouldn't dare put the amount of claims above five. No matter how many PRs end up dying, the others are no more or less confirmed than before by that alone.

Okay, now I see that the masons weren't included in the PR list. This changes things in my head quite a bit. Since now I know that mafia didn't inflate the amount of PRs to five like I had thought, I'm starting to feel that every PR is genuine.

NoHitter's plan of going for suspicious claims, then going among the non-PRs is... iffy. It's a lot more prudent to confirm as many of the PRs as possible (and/or catch scum in a lie) while lynching among the townies. There's really no reason to go for PRs first, ESPECIALLY doubles. Doubles should definitely wait until later in the game except for mason pairs.

Sadly, NoHitter and fartonik are completely correct at the bottom of page seven. While the plan itself was completely suboptimal, the worst possible scenario is to stop it halfway through.

BRBP's avatar scared the hell out of me.

I'm not really liking Haneii. His posts have been pretty off up to where I'm at; page 13. His push on Tanzklaue was rather meh and his current push on Hika is also pretty meh. Him stating that everyone else that isn't confirmed town or Tanz/NH as null is really meh too.

Jinxy is starting to ping to me as well.

The Jailkeeper claim is really town.

DakeDekaane's post trying to put suspicion on Hika for the JK claim is pinging me.

pieguy1372 trying to guess at BRBP's role in his catch-up post is giving me red flags. Scum are much more interested in knowing what BRBP's role is. I'm still leaning town on this slot, but that can easily change if this slot pings me any more.

Okay, from what I can tell, DakeDekaane is getting fire on page 20 for saying that BRBP shouldn't claim his role. Dake's stance on that is actually the most town one. Like I said above, scum are more interested in knowing BRBP's role right away: Scum have an unknown that could easily get them caught no matter what they try, while town would want it hidden because that's information that's virtually useless to them.

---

Everything below the line is day 2 stuff.

fartownik claiming a no-result N1 is HUGE. I'll get into this more in my next post after I've finished my thoughts. I agree that jailing BRBP was the most optimal play, but what ended up happening is definitely not a bad alternative.

I'm honestly not getting a whole lot reads-wise from the Day 2 stuff. What I said in my last post still applies. I'm going to do some thinking now.

[b:08852]Vote: Haneii[/b:08852]

Please bear with my chain-posting, I believe it's more readable this way.
Amianki
85 posts
Joined January 2011
Amianki
Let's try that again.

Vote: Haneii

Hopefully it takes this time.
Amianki
85 posts
Joined January 2011
Amianki
This post is my suggested plan of attack for night choices. I promise I will stop posting for a bit after this and let other people start having posts on this page.

We have prime opportunities to get information right now. Assuming that both PRs are town, which I believe is the case, then we are in great shape. This is the best option for N2:

fartownik watches one confirmed town (mason), while pieguy1372 jails the vigilante. Most likely, the watched target is going to die.

There's several possibilities for mason death:

If we lynch scum today and fartownik gets a tangible result, the result is lynched. Either we lynch scum, or we lynch town and fartownik gets vigged that night (either dying or being confirmed bulletproof or JOAT). Either way, we get a scum.

If we lynch scum today and fartownik gets no result: Still a 2v5 endgame, which is pretty nice. We don't have a whole lot of information from this alone, but my suggested plan for N3 still works.

If we lynch town today and fartownik gets a tangible result, then it's a gamble. We can either lynch one of fartownik and his target (50-50 change) or one of the people that aren't fartownik and his target (also a 50-50 chance). Either way, it gets kind of rough here.

If we lynch town today and fartownik gets no result: I'll be honest; this is a really bad situation. A town win from here would be really impressive.

This is listed from best to worst.

I won't go into what happens if someone besides the watched target dies. There's so many possibilities that it's completely useless trying to analyze it before it happens. Plus, we still have two confimred town at this point. Even if we end up lynching town, we are still more likely to lynch scum than town the following days. Watcher on jailkeeper and jailkeeper targetting a townie without revealing who works well here.

---

Either way, assuming that we reach N3 and the mason dies N2, the only real thing both PRs should do is to target the vigilante.

If we follow this plan, then we will have at least one confirmed town in D4. The only way we won't is if, again, both unproven PRs are scum, in which case we just win the game (since there would only be two scum left).

I fully recommend we keep the vigilante alive as long as possible instead of the mason. Keeping our options open is always a plus.
fartownik
2,189 posts
Joined December 2008
fartownik
Good piece of content, Caligno. Good replacement for Irreversible.

CalignoBot wrote:

fartownik watches one confirmed town (mason), while pieguy1372 jails the vigilante. Most likely, the watched target is going to die.
Do you really think Mafia would just go over Rantai if they knew I'm currently watching him? That'd be a direct expose of scum, you know. If they know I'm going to Watch Rantai they will probably just change the target to avoid getting caught (unless I'm missing something?). If this is done then me or pieguy would most likely be nightkilled as we are the remaining PRs without any protection.
Amianki
85 posts
Joined January 2011
Amianki
I might not have explained well enough why that is the most likely result. I think I explained my whole thought process behind that, albeit in a somewhat messy way, but I can explain that part of it in another post if it's still confusing.
Raging Bull
2,809 posts
Joined June 2010
Raging Bull
Will be unavailable for approximately 14hours
fartownik
2,189 posts
Joined December 2008
fartownik

CalignoBot wrote:

I might not have explained well enough why that is the most likely result. I think I explained my whole thought process behind that, albeit in a somewhat messy way, but I can explain that part of it in another post if it's still confusing.
Well, it'd be nice if you elaborated on this. Why would scum risk getting caught (or more like, conciously going into a trap) by killing a target aimed by Watcher?
Jinxy
2,777 posts
Joined February 2009
Jinxy

fartownik wrote:

CalignoBot wrote:

I might not have explained well enough why that is the most likely result. I think I explained my whole thought process behind that, albeit in a somewhat messy way, but I can explain that part of it in another post if it's still confusing.
Well, it'd be nice if you elaborated on this. Why would scum risk getting caught (or more like, conciously going into a trap) by killing a target aimed by Watcher?

Rantai wrote:

The scum will almost definitely hit RB or I because we're confirmed. If they don't then they're shooting themselves in the foot (which is fine by me).
I assume it's because if they shoot you or pieguy (or a VT if they're retarded) instead, then we'll still have 2 alive confirmed-towns which significantly pushes the odds into our favour.
fartownik
2,189 posts
Joined December 2008
fartownik
But, are those 'odds into Town favor' worth more than still having all Mafia hidden? (I mean for scum of course)
Amianki
85 posts
Joined January 2011
Amianki
There's several possible reasons why scum would go for the mason anyway.

1. If they have a ninja; they can kill off a confirmed town while giving no concrete information in return.
2. If fartownik is scum, he can just make up whatever result he wants. This is the other possibility that makes this not concrete.
3. If neither of the above are true, then the other options aren't that great either:

a. fartownik is the target of the nightkill; worst possible target, as now pieguy is confirmed town. Even if we used up our mislynch today, there's 3 confirmed town and 4 unconfirmed town, 3 of which are scum. That's giving town an unnecessary advantage.

b. pieguy dying reduces options. Keeping both unconfirmed PRs alive helps scum because the possibility of both being scum is a really powerful advantage for them to keep around. If town suddenly knows for a fact that there are a minimum of two mafia in the VT pile, then there's no inherent risk of lynching from the VT pile twice since there's not a chance that there's only one scum in that pile (which having both PRs alive would prevent). It would have the same type of situation as both PRs being alive where there would be a choice to go for the PR or VT, but it happens where there's more information present.

c1. Shooting one of the VTs; both PRs are town: This is extremely risky, especially if both of the PRs are town. The next night, the Jailkeeper can choose a target of his choice (without making note of it beforehand in thread) and the Watcher targets one of the other PRs in the same way (also without making note of it beforehand). Suddenly, in this situation, the scum have to rely on dumb luck for a kill to go through without the person committing it getting caught. There's a 50% chance the kill will just be straight-up blocked (4 VTs going into night, 3 VTs going into day, 2 VTs going into night), and even then there's a 33% chance of the Watcher catching that scum anyways unless there's a ninja. Whether one or both are scum is moot; it's a very risky situation to get into.

c2. Shooting one of the VTs; both PRs are scum: Honestly, this really isn't much different than if they shot the mason. The only real change is that one of the confirmed town dies a day later. Mafia literally cannot allow BOTH the vigilante and mason to get to day 4 (assuming 2 deaths a day cicle, this is when there's 5 people left). That is literally just making the game difficult for yourself needlessly.

However, I don't think it's overly likely that both PRs are scum. Just having the game play out the way it did with a farto-pieguy-? scumteam is a huge enough risk that I don't think it would've been even attempted by very many people. Scum (non-PR group) really don't have any good options if they don't have a ninja.
Sakura
osu! Alumni
7,979 posts
Joined March 2010
Topic Starter
Sakura
Vote Count 2.03

(L-2) DakeDekaane (3) - pieguy1372, fartownik, Rantai
Haneii (1) - CalignoBot

No Lynch (1) - DakeDekaane

Not Voting (4) - Jinxy, Haneii, Tanzklaue, Raging Bull

With 9 Alive it takes 5 to lynch.
Please let me know if you see any mistakes
Rantai
1,000 posts
Joined July 2010
Rantai

CalignoBot wrote:

Okay, from what I can tell, DakeDekaane is getting fire on page 20 for saying that BRBP shouldn't claim his role.
Where exactly? At the very least I don't remember using that as an argument for or against.

Unvote Vote: Jinxy

His ISO is rife with parroting and/or jumping in behind another accusation. As much as I don't like DD's play so far, Jinxy is even more uncomfortable. That and he was still one of the non voters and first for the plan so I'm more or less satisfied with that for now (explanation can merely be a cover, considering the insight provided).
Haneii
1,203 posts
Joined November 2009
Haneii
Hi CalignoBot o/

CalignoBot wrote:

Jinxy is starting to ping to me as well.
Why?
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


I don't see Mafia targeting mason if they know they'll be watched (Yeah, you listed other scenarios and their odds - which, by the way, get better if we accidentally lynch town today - but mafia would prob jump at taking those risks than willingly falling into this town "trap" ie: letting themselves get caught by the watcher). And if they do go ahead with the kill, they'll probably have a ninja so watching for them is pointless.

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


CalignoBot wrote:

I fully recommend we keep the vigilante alive as long as possible instead of the mason.
Until when? Might work if he was still hidden, but mafia will prob just kill him when we need to use him (Mafia's shots occur first, right?).

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------



We need a better night plan for the PRs if we lynch town...




[In preparation for if we hit sucm today] We should probably decide on who we all think is the next most suspicious (right after the person we lynch today) and that person should be targeted by Jailkeeper.

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


My thoughts haven't changed much from my last post so:

Vote: Jinxy
DakeDekaane
osu! Alumni
3,500 posts
Joined February 2012
DakeDekaane
First of all, sorry for the long inactivity, I got all my pending stuff irl done, so I'm quite free now, welcome CalignoBot, nice summary o/

Though I think it's pretty late I'll respond what fartownik asked:

fartownik wrote:

@Dake: concentrate more on the potential targets for the lynch today instead of writing up the possible scenarios of tommorrow. We must focus on minimalizing the possibility of lynching scum today and what you're doing is not helpful at the moment. What are your main scumspects? Also, what do you think about Irre and JInxy?
You guys asked to elaborate so I did. My main suspects atm are Haneii and Jinxy.

Irre was quite inactive and gave me scumread due his unexplained vote on NH, but now that he got a replacement, I'll be reading him until I get a clear read, for now, CalignoBot looks townie for bringing a really nice summary and some points to considerate, I shall agree on keeping Watcher on Rantai.
Jinxy is a bit null for me, leaning town for explaining what town could obtain from NH's plan, but then he stayed a bit quiet.

Now:

Haneii wrote:

[In preparation for if we hit sucm today] We should probably decide on who we all think is the next most suspicious (right after the person we lynch today) and that person should be targeted by Jailkeeper.
What if scum recruited the traitor? The two remaining would be like: "Hey, I'm going to be jailed" "Ok, I'll make the kill". It's not a nice course of action.

And why did you say things get better by accidentally lynching town? Accidentally lynching a town means a lynching a VT, yes, it increases the odds for town, but if scum hit a confirmed town, we'll be 1 confirmed, 2 PR and 4 non-PR, assuming we'd not take the risk of making RB shoot, which would be pretty the same as today, tho we would look for the behaviour of everyone. The thing that frightened me a bit is how you are wording that. (I know I stated the same scenario before, but it's too different when it's caused by mislynching than a vig shot).
Haneii
1,203 posts
Joined November 2009
Haneii

DakeDekaane wrote:

What if scum recruited the traitor?

DakeDekaane wrote:

And why did you say things get better by accidentally lynching town?
What if they didn't?
Mafia's odds. Specifically the the odds mentioned in CalignoBot's scenarios where someone besides Mason is targeted. If we lynch town the odds in some of those scenarios get better for mafia, so I don't think they're a good argument for "Mafia will most likely target the mason tonight". I don't necessarily agree with these odds, DakeDekaane, I'm just posting my thoughts about them.
Haneii
1,203 posts
Joined November 2009
Haneii
EBWOP:



"What if they didn't?" is my response to your first question at me. Sorry >.>
Sakura
osu! Alumni
7,979 posts
Joined March 2010
Topic Starter
Sakura
Vote Count 2.04

DakeDekaane (2) - pieguy1372, fartownik
Jinxy (2) - Rantai, Haneii
Haneii (1) - CalignoBot

No Lynch (1) - DakeDekaane

Not Voting (3) - Jinxy, Tanzklaue, Raging Bull

With 9 Alive it takes 5 to lynch.
Please let me know if you see any mistakes
Amianki
85 posts
Joined January 2011
Amianki
@Haneii: If the mason ends up surviving the night, then that's completely fine with me. The logic of not bothering with watching one of the confirmed town doesn't work. It gives scum an ultimatum where they have to either give up one of their own for it or let both confirmed town live if they don't have a ninja. At the bare minimum, we narrow down possibilities. I can't think of a reliable way to get information from the night actions if we don't do this.

Telling the Jailkeeper who to target offensively is not a good idea either; all scum has to do is select someone else to make the kill. If we're doing it at all, the jailing will be secret.

I'll explain Jinxy scumread when I skim through a second time. I have a really bad habit of noting things for myself without any context whatsoever.
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