then the avenger has to be dead regardless of the lyncher, along with the inmate for the guard to win
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To Each His Own (AVENGER/GUARD WIN) - Revenge!
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Not sure how that is a threat to him but ok.
me neither but the host confusing town before the game seems more sensless than that and it will dumb as hell so that's why those are the two options imo.
and with that i mean host giving false information pre-game it's stupid and brings a lot of randomness from the very begin which i wouldn't count NH on doing so.
so taking those 2 Notes in mind either the Guard is the lynchee or the Avenger has to die regardless
so taking those 2 Notes in mind either the Guard is the lynchee or the Avenger has to die regardless
why do either of you think nohitter gave false information
I don't get it
I don't get it
Topic Starter
If the Avenger's target isn't the Guard, the Guard need not have the Avenger dead to win.
then the avenger's target is most likely to be the guard, i'd say 100% but idk.
Mmm I thought so.
so the guard is right now the only townie? sounds fair. Can someone more capable do the math iof whether it's best to lynch or no lynch? At first glance when you consider two people automatically end the game on lynch, it seems benefittable to no lynch
no, we don't have any informative role to gather information on a no lynch situation so i guess we have another two options on this scenario :
1. the guard claims and we increase the chances of lynching mafia
2. random lynch and hope we don't get the lynchee
on the situation we do a no lynch (which i don't see it working but i'm really bad doing those kind of maths on d1 so idk).
1. the guard claims and we increase the chances of lynching mafia
2. random lynch and hope we don't get the lynchee
on the situation we do a no lynch (which i don't see it working but i'm really bad doing those kind of maths on d1 so idk).
random lynch is going to be tight, because we have to avoid both lynchee and fool
on the other hand if the guard claims it'd defeat the purpose of the bulletproof vest being effective, and we're just assuming he's the lynchee anyways (i'm pretty sure about it tho but whatever)
also i don't think we have fools on this game lol, feels good.
also i don't think we have fools on this game lol, feels good.
Uh that was a huge pain in the ass.
But here are some numbers, if we no lynch;
Chance to win:
Lyncher 17.67%
Guard 14.48%
Mafia 15.52%
Jester 26.8%
Survivor 57.48%
This includes joint wins and chance lynchee lynches. I haven't done the 'if we lynch' numbers yet. I might do it later but right now I am sick of spreadsheets.
But here are some numbers, if we no lynch;
Chance to win:
Lyncher 17.67%
Guard 14.48%
Mafia 15.52%
Jester 26.8%
Survivor 57.48%
This includes joint wins and chance lynchee lynches. I haven't done the 'if we lynch' numbers yet. I might do it later but right now I am sick of spreadsheets.
I assume the jester can joint win with the lyncher if he is the lynchee, the survivor can joint win with anyone etc etc.
I'd say, based on a quick estimate, that we have a better chance going for a lynch today and hoping to get the survivor.
40% chance someone will win today or 57% chance that the survivor wins on the next day.
40% chance someone will win today or 57% chance that the survivor wins on the next day.
sounds about right, but bear in mind nobody can win after D2 end. That's vivor by default.Rantai wrote:
I assume the jester can joint win with the lyncher if he is the lynchee, the survivor can joint win with anyone etc etc.
Yeah. That's why the survivor chance is so damn high. Almost all paths led to an auto win.
Salvage you lost me dear are you looking for a lyncher bandwagon?
im trying to lynch the survivor
and if you were the survivor Wojjan my love, would you lurk or try to seem town you tell me
and if you were the survivor Wojjan my love, would you lurk or try to seem town you tell me
Not much reason to 'act' town in this game. We're basically all independent factions.
Though I now have some light speculations on your role.
Though I now have some light speculations on your role.
Basically you are;
1. The survivor
or
2. The lyncher
1. The survivor
or
2. The lyncher
Of course I'm wrong.
Can't be right against a pre-determined answer.
Oh wait you can but that would be apply to a different situation
Can't be right against a pre-determined answer.
Oh wait you can but that would be apply to a different situation
i say it's really likely that Rantai its not the Jester and he's probabbly one of those two roles he mentioned, or the mafia
why? because he's not lurking like bmin and trying to give information while getting lynched in this game is easy, specially when there is no bad players and u can make a "slip" easily
so we lynching Rantai today.
why? because he's not lurking like bmin and trying to give information while getting lynched in this game is easy, specially when there is no bad players and u can make a "slip" easily
so we lynching Rantai today.
Isn't bmin asleep?
Hmm so Guard isn't mentioned in there. Interesting.
Hmm so Guard isn't mentioned in there. Interesting.
I haven't quite claimed anything.
I thought you claimed guard just then though. But that'd be too easy.
I thought you claimed guard just then though. But that'd be too easy.
Salvage dear if I wasn't so sure you're the guard I'd think you're the fool for that first you vote bmin for lurking and then rantai for being town. Whatever the answer for you is why did you vote the other one?Salvage wrote:
and if you were the survivor Wojjan my love, would you lurk or try to seem town you tell me
if the other one is Rantai then i already said it
it's because i think he's not the jester and that's enough to not waste a lynch in my opinion, do you have a better idea wojjan
it's because i think he's not the jester and that's enough to not waste a lynch in my opinion, do you have a better idea wojjan