aaaaand class ended super early because it was the first day.
So OK, I dunno about you guys but I've been considering the "kidnapper" to be a serial killer/janitor. If this is the case, then, as crazy as this might sound, the only way for the town to win is if neither the mafia nor SK is lynched today. Here are the scenarios:
1. Mafia is lynched
N4: 2 townies + 1 SK
D5: 1 townie + 1 SK
SK win = 100%
2. SK is lynched
N4: 2 townies + 1 mafia
D5: 1 townie + 1 mafia
Mafia win = 100%
3. Townie is lynched
N4: 1 townie + 1 mafia + 1 SK
Assuming random kills, the possible outcomes are as follows:
SK kills townie, mafia kills townie - mafia + SK win
SK kills townie, mafia kills SK - mafia win
SK kills mafia, mafia kills townie - SK win
SK kills mafia, mafia kills SK - town win
Town win = 25%
4. No lynch
N4: 2 townies + 1 mafia + 1 SK
SK kills townie A, mafia kills townie A | D5 = 1 townie, 1 SK, 1 mafia
SK kills townie A, mafia kills townie B | mafia + SK win
SK kills townie A, mafia kills SK | mafia win
SK kills townie B, mafia kills townie A | mafia + SK win
SK kills townie B, mafia kills townie B | D5 = 1 townie, 1 SK, 1 mafia
SK kills townie B, mafia kills SK | mafia win
SK kills mafia, mafia kills townie A | SK win
SK kills mafia, mafia kills townie B | SK win
SK kills mafia, mafia kills SK | town win
Town win = 11% (not counting the the D5 scenarios)
For the D5 situations:
Townie lynch = SK + mafia win
Mafia lynch = SK win
SK lynch = mafia win
No lynch = (see scenario 3.)
So it seems to me that the best chance the town has of winning is if a townie is lynched today. I'll volunteer to be the lynchee if you guys are ok with this.