..Uh, 1/3 for N2 if we don't lynch? Shouldn't that be 1/4?
Unless there's a reason behind that.
Unless there's a reason behind that.
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Two-for-one Mini Mafia (Mafia Win!)
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I just spent a bit of time with excel because I was bored. http://puu.sh/8tun - Red indicates dead cop, blue indicates successful scum check.
Do note that it is huge (1000 cells). It takes into account a doctor, 1 cop, 1 roleblocker-mafia and 3 towns (assumed vanilla) but only goes up D2. It also assumes that the mafia will not roleblock and kill the same person.
To summarise;
No lynch:
- 14.4% chance to get a scum result without dying or being blocked (not on sheet, feel free to dispute if I am wrong)
- 16% chance to die (not on sheet, feel free to dispute)
Mislynch (aggregate);
-17.71% chance to die
- 6.34% of getting scum hit without being killed (from lynch and NK combined) or roleblocked.
If you do bother with the spreadsheet fiddle around with the numbers to get the individual scenario %'s but that's basically the baseline here.
Do note that it is huge (1000 cells). It takes into account a doctor, 1 cop, 1 roleblocker-mafia and 3 towns (assumed vanilla) but only goes up D2. It also assumes that the mafia will not roleblock and kill the same person.
To summarise;
No lynch:
- 14.4% chance to get a scum result without dying or being blocked (not on sheet, feel free to dispute if I am wrong)
- 16% chance to die (not on sheet, feel free to dispute)
Mislynch (aggregate);
-17.71% chance to die
- 6.34% of getting scum hit without being killed (from lynch and NK combined) or roleblocked.
If you do bother with the spreadsheet fiddle around with the numbers to get the individual scenario %'s but that's basically the baseline here.
Er, successful check*
I'll review it quickly just in case I screwed something up badly.
Edit: Mistake with some doctor coefficients, changed - http://puu.sh/8ty6
Amendments (mislynch)
Cop death chance: 33.33%
Scum check chance: 10.5%
That looks much better.
I'll review it quickly just in case I screwed something up badly.
Edit: Mistake with some doctor coefficients, changed - http://puu.sh/8ty6
Amendments (mislynch)
Cop death chance: 33.33%
Scum check chance: 10.5%
That looks much better.
confirmed
that's all you have to say @ KRZY? o_o
Oh my god @ Rantai. Assuming there is a cop, IMO a no lynch with no roleclaims would be far better than the other options. We'd have two possibilites to hit mafia: the N1 check and the D2 lynch (if we don't find one we just lynch randomly) compared to just one for lynching today. Also, now that you mention that bmin11 I agree there probably is one.
Overall, the odds would be 2/5 + 3/5*2/5 = 10/25+6/25 = 16/25 (!)
The problem is we don't even know if there is a cop, since we'll have no roleclaims.
Oh my god @ Rantai. Assuming there is a cop, IMO a no lynch with no roleclaims would be far better than the other options. We'd have two possibilites to hit mafia: the N1 check and the D2 lynch (if we don't find one we just lynch randomly) compared to just one for lynching today. Also, now that you mention that bmin11 I agree there probably is one.
Overall, the odds would be 2/5 + 3/5*2/5 = 10/25+6/25 = 16/25 (!)
The problem is we don't even know if there is a cop, since we'll have no roleclaims.
To be honest, we're better off not having anyone claim (especially today) to prevent mishaps of any kind.
Also, Rantai: How do you know there's a cop?
Also, Rantai: How do you know there's a cop?
It doesn't necessarily has to be a cop. We are assuming there would be some aux roles for town since there is a roleblocker on mafia side (what would be the point of this game if there wasn't any roleblocker?)
It's an assumption. If we don't have a cop then I'd lean towards a lynch because we're not going to have much information gathering for the night. In that situation we'll need every opportunity to lynch as we can get.Swiftwolf Yellowtail wrote:
To be honest, we're better off not having anyone claim (especially today) to prevent mishaps of any kind.
Also, Rantai: How do you know there's a cop?
*But I think it's at least reasonable to assume we have a cop.
Actually, if there is no cop, no lynch is better anyway because it improves our odds of lynching a mafia. It's 2/5 instead of 2/6 = 1/3. It also allows a night just in case a town action happens that helps us find a mafia.
Ahh true. We only have 6 players so we can only afford a single mislynch too.
So either way a no lynch stands better.
Vote: No lynch
So either way a no lynch stands better.
Vote: No lynch
Vote: No Lynch
Kinda hate disclosing this issue with only half of the player discussing this, but I don't see a better option at the moment
Kinda hate disclosing this issue with only half of the player discussing this, but I don't see a better option at the moment
vote: No Lynch
can't think of any better options
can't think of any better options
Guess I should...
Vote: No Lynch
Vote: No Lynch
Sorry was too absorbed in the other Mafia game.
Looks like I don't have much of a role to play but to wait and see what happens N1.
Vote: No lynch
Looks like I don't have much of a role to play but to wait and see what happens N1.
Vote: No lynch
So ya ummm...... I guess LS is busy playing Skyrim?
Dunno. Might be a WWG moment or something. >_>
Is Skyrim good
All my friends on Steam are constantly playing it
All my friends on Steam are constantly playing it
I'm told it is good...
Once Ifail finish my exams this week I think I'm going to get Oblivion then Skyrim.
It's nice to see a well hyped up game not completely crap out for once.
Once I
It's nice to see a well hyped up game not completely crap out for once.
just skip oblivion and get skyrim IMO
also what is the hold up? Sorry I haven't really been posting but damn. 5/6 voting No-lynch.
also what is the hold up? Sorry I haven't really been posting but damn. 5/6 voting No-lynch.
Suburu's last post (and visit) was two days ago. 
Unvote, Vote: LS
They say when you vote someone they magically appear right.
They say when you vote someone they magically appear right.
Well, his last visit is today, but he hasn't posted once yet.
..might be ignoring this thread or something (why? I do not know)
..might be ignoring this thread or something (why? I do not know)
Topic Starter
Familly dragged me away.
I was reading the other thread on my Itouch to catch up, but figured I'd post today when I didn't have to take 10 minutes to write two lines.
It is now night. I'll give 48 hours for actions due to my absence, but remember that when all actions are in night will end.
I was reading the other thread on my Itouch to catch up, but figured I'd post today when I didn't have to take 10 minutes to write two lines.
It is now night. I'll give 48 hours for actions due to my absence, but remember that when all actions are in night will end.
Topic Starter
giving 24 more hours due to not only not receiving all night actions, but due to still being on an ITouch.
Topic Starter
Night ends, and one person is bleeding on the ground.
That was foulcoon. He is apperently a doctor. Or, was.
With 5 alive it's 3 to lynch. Deadline is in 3 days.
That was foulcoon. He is apperently a doctor. Or, was.
With 5 alive it's 3 to lynch. Deadline is in 3 days.
well fuck
well that's just great ._.
oh great
What do we even do? There's hardly anything to go on. I'm somewhat suspicious of KRZY for hardly posting D1, but that's about it
What do we even do? There's hardly anything to go on.
I'm somewhat suspicious of KRZY for hardly posting D1, but that's about itI'm more suspicious of Swiftwolf who usually goes scumhunt hard on other games. His posts lack efforts overall.
FoS Swiftwolf
FoS Swiftwolf
Geh there goes our last line of defense.
I'd like to hear from Swift and KRZY though, they might have some info for us. Or this game is a roulette of luck.
I'd like to hear from Swift and KRZY though, they might have some info for us. Or this game is a roulette of luck.
go town ;o
..Really? The most important role dies? Fucking a...
bmin: Actually, I didn't get much of a chance yesterday (in-game time, obviously) to speak.
Oh, and by the way, I counter your FoS with my own.
bmin: Actually, I didn't get much of a chance yesterday (in-game time, obviously) to speak.
Oh, and by the way, I counter your FoS with my own.
Oh I didn't see KRZY's post.
Given that everyone has said something now, I am going to assume we have been thrown into the dark for this day.
Given that everyone has said something now, I am going to assume we have been thrown into the dark for this day.
Assuming there are 2 mafia, since this IS "Two-for-one", we're at LyLo right now. If not, we're at MyLo.
Well then, if we must lynch, why not do so after we obtain as much information as possible.
I am a one-shot bulletproof townie. Rephrased, I win when no other party exists to threaten town.
I am a one-shot bulletproof townie. Rephrased, I win when no other party exists to threaten town.
I'm just a townie.
Argh people gotta realize claiming bullet-proof isn't really a helpful thing. In this case, you just have thrown away a chance for a night of non-NK.
Swiftwolf: I'm detecting a high level OMGUS flavor from your post. What I was expecting was some analyzes you would have gotten so far. Since you are always up to date with games you play (that's what you have stated), you should have atleast gotten some small analyzes to point out.
Rantai, do you have any suspicions of anyone here?
Swiftwolf: I'm detecting a high level OMGUS flavor from your post. What I was expecting was some analyzes you would have gotten so far. Since you are always up to date with games you play (that's what you have stated), you should have atleast gotten some small analyzes to point out.
Rantai, do you have any suspicions of anyone here?
You're right, bmin, I love to keep up to date, but I have nothing to point out, other than the fact that you haven't claimed yet. Are you trying to hide something?
I don't see the point of role claiming. Why are you so keen for my role?