ehh I can kind of see what you mean, but animask's first line seems like a tautology to me due to the use of the term "probably".
Here, example:
Say there's a 10 person game with 2 mafia. I select a person at random and say "This person is probably townie". The statement is true no matter who I chose because there's an 80% chance he's townie.
Here, example:
Say there's a 10 person game with 2 mafia. I select a person at random and say "This person is probably townie". The statement is true no matter who I chose because there's an 80% chance he's townie.