Chris wrote:

The fact I got roleblocked means that Foulcoon couldn't have been.

Right but my target has the ability to leave at night, so my action didn't work.

Also I said that I was pretty sure I got roleblocked, but I also said I never received any PM so I didn't know for sure.

Lilac wrote:

Actually, I've got a better way.

Mash, were you roleblocked last night?

How would I know? I don't have an ability.

akro: I think pieguy is Mafia but I'm beginning to think you are as well for some reason, probably on a very slight suspicion though.

Foul is also content with sticking to the fact that he tried to kill me which meant who killed Wojjan? This is all under chris's hypothetical statement mind you.

Lilac wrote:

akro: I think pieguy is Mafia but I'm beginning to think you are as well for some reason, probably on a very slight suspicion though.

Foul is also content with sticking to the fact that he tried to kill me which meant who killed Wojjan? This is all under chris's hypothetical statement mind you.

He could have targetted you as a vig, or a SK targetted others and said "I targetted Lilac, but I think I got roleblocked". This got complicated because we never knew of your ability to escape for a night. So, this is still WIFOM and there aren't a way to prove it I guess.

Double posting. Sorry

Chris wrote:

akrolsmir + bmin11 are both pro-town.

In case you missed that out

Ignore the fact I left for the night then.

What made the Mafia not want to NK Chris? Was Two that important to have dead?

Also foul says he might have been roleblocked but I doubt there were two roleblockers. I mean, I wouldn't be surprised if Mara was SK because of how many FPS games him and Tuuba play.

What made the Mafia not want to NK Chris?

As I posted before, I bet they just role blocked him, because that's all it takes to silence him pretty much. However...

Was Two that important to have dead?

Two was not the case like Chris. Two basically ran the scumhunting during D2. Role blocking would not be so effective against Two, so I bet they NK'ed him instead of Chris. It's one stone two birds for mafia.



EDIT:
and we never said foulcoon was definitely role blocked or anything. Actually, it's very slim as you said. I agree with Chris on foulcoon being the possible SK. It's easy for a SK to act like Vigilante. I also find myself hard to belive there would be two Vigilantes as well.

Before we even deal with any of this shit:

1. LadySuburu - Claimed strager/role thief
2. Mashley* - Claimed peppy/Lyncher
3. animask* Rolled - Claimed Rokodo/Bus Driver
4. Lilac - Hito/Commuter
5. rust45* - Claimed nothing
6. pieguy1372 - Claimed index-san/Vanilla
7. foulcoon - Claimed Ivalset/Night Vig
8. akrolsmir - Claimed sakura hana/3x One-Shot (cop/doc/vig)
9. Chris - Two/Lie detector
10. bmin11 - Daru/no description
11. LunaticMara - Claimed Fishie/Vanilla

Bmin, supply a description of your role.
Rust, fucking claim something you little weasel.

prod: Rust
Mod: 1 day extension due to osu being down?

bmin, I see you lurking.

Claim something even though that will give the mafia more insight on the setup of the game and I'm already confirmed town? No thanks.

Anyway, I don't know why but I'm having trouble finding motivation in this game. I think I'm going to request replacement.

And what exactly confirms you are town?

I'm a 50% chance Detective. If I target the victim (NK'ed) of the night successfully, I'm able to draw the culprit's face. However, I only have 50% chance of doing so because of inconvinient reasons (probably indicating how Daru can't draw so often because of his real life =ㅅ=;;)

And I didn't lurk. I just didn't refresh in time and left the forum open. Sorry

I actually did see that, bmin. As soon as I posted the lurking thing, I saw you were no longer on the list.

Also, I like that post. This elaborate stories are hard to fake, and that is quite elaborate.

Rust, care to make up a story?

Request: Modkill rust

We don't have any replacements.

Thank you for showing your disinterest rust, we may not need to take a night now to test Chris's sanity.

The two vanilla claimers are both unconfirmed by chris, so it's possible (probable?) both are lying. I'm thinking there is at most one vanilla townie.

Given that chris is 1. not lying and 2. always right, that rolled is town busdriver for preventing chris's roleblock, and that mashley isn't lying about being a lyncher, our variables are:

Lilac
foulcoon
pieguy
Mara

Assuming a setup of 3 mafia for an 18 person game, along with the one known SK hanging around, three out of these four are anti-town who need to be lynched.

Possibilities:

1. Mafia roleblocked foulcoon to save Lilac.
That means foulcoon actually is a townie night vig, Lilac is probably the roleblocker. One of pieguy/Mara is scum, the other is the SK. In this scenario, lynch Lilac.

2. Mafia roleblocked foulcoon to incriminate foulcoon and Lilac
Lilac and foulcoon are both not lying about their roles. Problem is, then we don't have enough people to fill in the remaining 2 scum and 1 SK, so we're wrong about the setup entirely (lynch chris). Pretty unlikely.

3. foulcoon is lying and is the SK.
Lilac may or may not be scum, but foulcoon shot Wojjan instead. His reasoning being that if he were to do as to do as the town suggested to fake vig, after mafia were dead he'd be the first lynch target. If this is true obviously we lynch foulcoon.

4. foulcoon is lying and is mafia.
He's in cahoots with Lilac, so didn't shoot him. One of pieguy/Mara is SK, the other is actually a vanilla townie. Lynch either Lilac or foulcoon while chris investigates who the SK is.

---
The safest lynch choice seems to be Lilac, though foulcoon brings the higher reward if he turns out to be SK.

Lilac, foulcoon: What do you think? Who is what and who should we lynch? If you don't respond then you know we'll be going after you first.
---
Mod: I agree with the proposed 1-day extension.

Keep in mind some people might be lying about their roles in their roleclaims. By pure elimination, assuming Chris is not lying, then we have Mashley, Rolled, Lilac, me, foulcoon, and LunaticMara. Mashley or Rolled could be lying and unless we use Chris, there's really no way to tell.

For now, I agree a Lilac or foulcoon lynch is safest.

Extending the deadline by 1 day.

I'll try to find a replacement for rust.

Lilac and foulcoon posted their thoughts on eachother and said "Lilac (foulcoon) is scummy" and voted eachother. Scene 4 now seems to be unlikely.

Thinking back, there isn't a reason why foulcoon would NK Wojjan if he was the SK (unless both were mafia, which became a slim possibility because of their votes on eachother). It would have been much safer to just shoot Lilac and prove his innocent (as a Night Vig).

I'm willing to vote on Lilac now even thought the Commuter claim sounds fine


Vote: Lilac

We're assuming a lot of things here.

The first assumption that is being made (at least by akro) is that there's 3 mafia members total. 2 mafia is standard in a 9 man game, and this game had 18. We need to look out for 3 more mafia.

Another assumption is that Chris is sane, and I think that everybody should always at least have the thought in the back of their mind that he isn't. Don't rely every decision you make based on Chris's sanity.

That said, I feel like we can test his sanity relatively easy and not at the cost of any night actions. Rust's statements don't sit well with me at all. Is his role really that valuable that he will not even claim the person, while 17 other member's roles are aware? (or at least claimed)

Let's compare rust with animask. Both were disinterested in this game, however animask, with little to care about, claimed his role when prodded to do so. It didn't require any thinking, everybody else was doing it, and he planned on dropping out anyway, thus he claimed.

Rust also expresses disinterest, and wishes to be replaced (also note: animask requested modkill, rust requested replacement). The only difference is, he is not giving any information on his role. Is his role really that game breaking? Is there already not many powerhouse roles in this game that mafia can choose between when nighttime comes? If his role is that important, why does he not have any information for us by day 3?

I'm more certain now than ever that Chris is either insane/naive, and rust is mafia.

I believe a modkill is standard play when a player expresses disinterest, and no replacements are available? Perhaps faceman doesn't wish to do so, because it will be quite the game-changer (and his mafia teammates won't be too satisfied with him)

Also, just to clarify, rust is the only member of Chris's D2 results that has not yet be (nearly)confirmed. If we do lynch him, and he is mafia, this opens up the door for Chris tonight to give town more valuable information tomorrow.

With all of that said, vote: rust

And also, as far as I'm concerned, foulcoon hasn't proved anything to us thus far. The only reason he is alive right now is because he agreed to shoot Lilac last night.

Even if Lilac is telling the truth about the Hito thing, Hito is a fucking BAT. I can't name any other BAT more corrupt than her, either.

If that isn't the case, perhaps they're both lying and aligned together. I'd like to propose that Foulcoon shoots Lilac n3. If it wasn't for your previous actions Lilac, then I'm sure foulcoon would have never been told to shoot you N2, so there's obviously scumtells there. Same goes for foulcoon, as he was nearly lynched as well. You need to prove your innocence before it's too late.

I couldn't find anything to point out from Rolled's first post. I wasn't so willing to test Chris's insanity because of his N2 resuly (calling akros and me pro-town while akros proved his innocent), but now it sounds like we may need to test Chris's sanity because of rust45's and 0_o behaviour. I'm willing to participate on this test with a vote.

Unvote, Vote: rust45

For the second post (sorry for double posting by the way), we may have to ask the mod before doing it because

Theoretically, if foulcoon was not allowed to shoot his gun for a night, he would still have the bullet on the next night. Right, faceman? ^_^

It doesn't seem like foulcoon''s a x-shot vig, though, just based on his wording I'd think he can act every night.

I don't think rust is mafia, and since the other 5/6 chris confirmed are pretty likely to be town anyways I think lynching rust is a waste of a day. I mostly see his claims at face value. Also, why go for him, who may or may not be scum, when we have people like Lilac and foulcoon who are much more shady? If anything I'd want to lynch Lilac and ask foulcoon to shoot rust, instead.

I still absolutely advocate lynching chris in 3 (well, 2, now) days to check his sanity, though.

There's several reasons I prefer foulcoon shooting lilac as opposed to rust. One of them being, we can prove Chris's (in)sanity during the day phase, and he can consider it during the night.

Are you telling me you don't see anything peculiar about rust refusing to claim after everybody else as? Or at least bullshitting a claim. I do believe he has lost interest in this game, and faking a claim requires a lot of thought and effort given this game's setup.

And do you know something about Chris that we don't? I mean, you claim to have one shot doc and cop. Have you put them to use yet?

I don't think lynching Chris should be much of an option anymore, especially with my opinion on Rust. Do you realize how much WIFOM could be used with this whole situation? Also, if Chris does happen to be insane or even naive, how threatening is he to mafia? Why would mafia NK him?

We need to focus on more threatening people. I know for a fact Chris can't come up with some shit like this, especially since Two is confirmed town.

Lilac's reason for why my shot didn't work is a good enough explanation for me. If you guys want me to shoot him tonight I have no problem doing so. Who would be the lynch target then, rust? I'm not 100% comfortable with lynching someone "confirmed" to be town from Chris. I do understand that both of Chris' results so far have been True, so its entirely possible that he is just naive.

Of course I picked the best color of green.

and to make this post of some substance for double posting, I would agree to lynching rust as he has lost interest in the game and Rolled's argument is strong.

I don't necessarily think Lilac is lying with the commuter claim, although lying is a possibility and some combination of roleblocking hoopty joop occurred (assuming Lilac is mafia)

I find it equally possible Lilac is telling the truth about the ability, however not about his alignment. As far as I can tell, his ability isn't far from just being one-shot bulletproof. And quite a few members (up to 3, though doubtful) have bullets.

And a one-shot bulletproof mafia member is not too uncommon.

There are a few reasons I don't want to ask foulcoon to shoot Lilac. One, he might just be bulletproof always, in which case there's no point. Two, he might actually be telling the truth in which case he'd just leave again tonight. Three, you're asking somebody suspicious to eliminate somebody else suspicious... if the reason it failed last time was that they were in collaboration a repeat would occur.

Basically, we tried it last night, it didn't work out so well last night, and there's no reason it'd work out any better tonight, unless you're 100% sure that he's one-shot bulletproof (which I personally disbelieve). That's why I think we should just lynch Lilac ourselves (or foulcoon if you are so inclined).

but I agree targetting someone else could be an option. So.... lets make foulcoon to kill rust45 then?

No, rust needs to be lynched as long as we plan on killing him. That gives Chris some more knowledge about his role before taking night actions.

And okay, I can't really say I'm appalled to foulcoon shooting somebody other than Lilac. I'd suggest one of the Vanilla claimers. Preferably Mara since I feel it would be pretty funny if he actually is mafia. It's almost too easy with this post:

LunaticMara wrote:

When I chose FisHie, I was expecting to get a jester due he is always in tuuba (like me). But I got this boring townie role. (IMAD)

But that's not the only suspicious thing Mara has done thus far, and hopefully I don't need to point them out. Not entirely sure how Mara has remained pretty under the radar.

I will note that in the same post, he made an (almost unnatural) effort to point out his choices for PyP weren't very known in the community. It would be much harder to claim a role like Vanilla if you'd end up being peppy, or somebody similar.

Rolled wrote:

I believe a modkill is standard play when a player expresses disinterest, and no replacements are available?

I dunno about what's "standard," but I consider a modkill to be the last resort.

If I can't find anyone to replace in the next 24 hours, then I'll make the modkill.

Man, holy shit. osu! were out REALLY long time. At least we got that 1 day extension. DLC for £60.

Rolled wrote:

I will note that in the same post, he made an (almost unnatural) effort to point out his choices for PyP weren't very known in the community. It would be much harder to claim a role like Vanilla if you'd end up being peppy, or somebody similar.

Simply because I aimed to get FisHie. I didn't want anyone else, so I used really unknown people too in my list. Is there a reason why I shouldn't be telling the fact? And peppy? Oh you. I am not really sure what are you trying to say in there, but I guess it's just Rolled. Eat some potatoes, boy.

LunaticMara: Do you think pieguy is telling the truth about being Vanilla Town?

Pieguy: Do you think LunaticMara is telling the truth about being Vanilla Town?

I am not really sure, mate. I haven't really trusted pieguy in this game, but Index-San looks like a townie.

I haven't really trusted pieguy

You may explain that to start with


I'm interested on why pieguy would have picked Index-San as well. I haven't heard of him so ofen (no offence). Maybe because of my inactivity idk

bmin11 wrote:

You may explain that to start with

Sure thing, once I get in my workplace (in 1,5 hours).

Rolled wrote:

Pieguy: Do you think LunaticMara is telling the truth about being Vanilla Town?

Maybe, but as I said before I was already suspicious of him in the first place, and considering it's quite easy to lie about being a townie, this makes it more likely he's mafia IMO.

bmin11 wrote:

I'm interested on why pieguy would have picked Index-San as well. I haven't heard of him so ofen (no offence). Maybe because of my inactivity idk

We were both in the same mafia game at one point. Actually, I only picked him because I wanted to be an anime character (inb4 you rage at me). My 3 choices were Index-san, Saten-san, and Hentai (just for the fun of it).

tl;dr
Wouldn't it be quite wrong to expect to be an anime character in PyP osu! Community?

By that, I meant having a username of an anime character. >.<//

That really doesn't make any sense IMO. Anyways, I'll start writing stuff once I get this one PC handled.

I need to do some stuff in here, so I'll just do this really quick.

Here's what I think at the moment:

LadySuburu - I don't know about this guy. Pro-town, I guess.
Mashley - This guy has already said that he is a lyncher. He may lie, but since there is strager around, I can believe in Mashley.
Rolled - Dunno man. Stay in the bus and do stuff. Totally pro-town.
Lilac - I trust this man is 100% pro-town. But why Hito..?
rust45 - Well, I guess you're getting modkilled soon so I don't care.
pieguy1372 - "Just a gut feeling" that he's a mafia. But we'll find that out soon. That anime nickname thing was so random that I don't know man... STOP MAKING ME CONFUSED.
foulcoon - Mafia?
akrolsmir - Claimed to be Sakura Hana - What powers have you used and to who?
Chris - Lie detector, but is he sane? I know there was a huge converstation about that few pages ago, but there is always a risk. But for now I don't see a reason to not trusting Chris.
bmin11 - How is this 50% chance working? Is 0_o just throwing the dice or something? Anyway, I'll trust you. And cute avatar. It makes me go HHHNNNNGGG when I write this post.

Chris, suggestion for the next night: LunaticMara and pieguy are both townies.

Rolled - Dunno man. Stay in the bus and do stuff. Totally pro-town.

While you don't think people who got near confirmation by Chris to be uncertain, but you are very sure Rolled is town, huh?

Lilac - I trust this man is 100% pro-town. But why Hito..?

I would like to hear what makes him truthful

foulcoon - Mafia?

A mafia that went to shoot Two, but not Lilac while he said he will shoot Lilac?

akrolsmir - Claimed to be Sakura Hana - What powers have you used and to who?

If you read the end of D2 and the night result, you can tell he used his Night Vig ability to shoot Rantai

bmin11 - How is this 50% chance working? Is 0_o just throwing the dice or something? Anyway, I'll trust you. And cute avatar. It makes me go HHHNNNNGGG when I write this post.

I'm going to bet 0_o (or Lyby) would use a program for this (or he could just flip a coin as you suggested). tl;dr and my avatar is so off-topic looooool

LunaticMara and pieguy are both townies.

I'm pretty sure one or another of you guys are going to be mafia (or even both of you). I would rather have Rolled + anyone of you guys to be tested by Chris.

bmin11 wrote:

foulcoon - Mafia?

A mafia that went to shoot Two, but not Lilac while he said he will shoot Lilac?

To add more, akrolsmir did wrote "foulcoon possibly being a mafia, but Lilac would also be a mafia in this case".

bmin11 wrote:

To add more, akrolsmir did wrote "foulcoon possibly being a mafia, but Lilac would also be a mafia in this case".

Why?

And now I'm too lazy to quote.

What makes Lilac so untrustable?

Does insane bus drivers even exist? Or are you saying that Rolled is bluffing us all the time?

I didn't notice akrolsmir's action. Sorry.

And that test is alright to me.

Why?

Because mafia did not know Lilac's ability. If they just went and kill Two and just bluntly say "I probably got roleblocked", that would make him look really suspicious. It's hard to believe a mafia would role block foulcoon, so the only way foulcoon being mafia is when Lilac is also mafia and claim "I have an ability to leave for a night". This gives a reason why foulcoon couldn't kill Lilac without being so suspicious.

What makes Lilac so untrustable?

This has been discussed pages ago. I agree this is not an absolute truth, but just a suspicion based on assumption basing on scenarios. However, I can't see why you could just believe Lilac would be town. I want to hear it from you.

Does insane bus drivers even exist? Or are you saying that Rolled is bluffing us all the time?

Possible. However, It's quite slim and I also think Rolled is town, but it's not near confirmation or anything, but just gut feelings from the way he posts. Don't tell me you believe in your guts over information.



I think it's your turn to answer me

Vote: foulcoon.

It's not a case of if I'm Mafia then foulcoon must be... Don't put me in the same league as him. I know he's an SK of some sort though.

Then why did you said you used your ability to hide during N2? It really made it hard to lynch foulcoon, who you think is a SK of some sort.

I may sound very pushy right now. I apologize if it did. I'm running out of time basically (10 minutes away from my internet dead line)

If you want to test if Chris's sanity, feel free to kill me as well though. I just don't want to die for some shitty reason as to stuff like since everyone else is town, you must be Mafia.

Stop posting that fast. Now I have to type faster.

Anyway, you're thinking to much into my role. I admit what I did gave foulcoon such a great reason to hide behind but he even says himself that he possibly got roleblocked as well which doesn't fit in at all. Enough a reason to lynch him for me.

Posting to say that I'm here and have been reading. Just don't have anything to post yet and discussions are going on.

LadySuburu wrote:

Posting to say that I'm here and have been reading.Just don't have anything to post yetand discussions are going on.

Suggestion for next night: At least one of LadySuburu (Or Akrols, since he's confirmed town too.) and (Scummy player we're likely to lynch) is anti-town.

If true, we lynch and potentially discover Chris's sanity (Player is town - Insane and likely Naive. Player is mafia - We killed a mafia.) If false, Chris can't be Naive.

Yes, I'm aware that there are a few potential problems with this, but meh. It's late so I'm just going to put what I think out there and mull over any flaws later.

This is what I suggest:

Lynch/modkill rust.

If rust is town, proves Chris is Sane/Naive. A couple different routes to take N3 for Chris:
1. "(Scummy alive player) is pro-town" If false, Chris is Sane and we lynch. If true, we lynch to test? I dunno that's dodgy.
2. "Rantai is pro-town." If true, proves Chris is naive. If false, we were better off choosing option 1.

If rust is mafia, proves chris is Insane/Naive.
1. "Chris is pro-town." If true, Chris is Naive.
-If false, proves Chris is insane. One or both of Akro/Bmin is/are mafia.

It's 6am, hopefully that makes sense.

And for the record, I still think foulcoon should shoot Lilac tonight. If you really are a vigilante, foulcoon, it is in yours and our best interest to do so.

Rolled wrote:

This is what I suggest:

Lynch/modkill rust.

If rust is town, proves Chris is Sane/Naive. A couple different routes to take N3 for Chris:
1. "(Scummy alive player) is pro-town" If false, Chris is Sane and we lynch. If true, we lynch to test? I dunno that's dodgy.
2. "Rantai is pro-town." If true, proves Chris is naive. If false, we were better off choosing option 1.

If rust is mafia, proves chris is Insane/Naive.
1. "Chris is pro-town." If true, Chris is Naive.
-If false, proves Chris is insane. One or both of Akro/Bmin is/are mafia.

It's 6am, hopefully that makes sense.

Oh, I should mention this. In pretty much any mafia game anywhere, a modkill sets the person's role to Neutral Survivor. So, a modkill doesn't help us with chris.

I still don't like lynching mostly confirmed town, with the SK and mafia still alive and only one mafia dead. I'm still trying to think over a better way of proving his sanity, but I haven't managed to yet.

Well wow, that modkill bit is a fucking garbage rule. Highly abusable, especially in a situation such as this.
Mod: Will that be the case, hypothetically?

And I definitely feel you are relying far too much on Chris's results, LS. Pretend Chris didn't exist, what would you think of rust?

rust ISO

Let me nutshell:
Barely posts at all as soon as he's given the "safe" by Chris. 3 times, to be exact.
When mass-roleclaiming, he manages to slip under the radar.
When confronted about being the only member to not claim, response was "Claim something even though that will give the mafia more insight on the setup of the game and I'm already confirmed town? No thanks."
The above statement implies he has a power role. More powerful than doctor, vigilante, and lie detector? If his role is so powerful and he prefers to stay a secret, why does he have no information for town Day 3?

Assuming Chris is sane is not the safest route we can take here. We need to find out ASAP where Chris stands. Regardless on whether or not you think Sane Lie Detector is balanced in this game, you don't think an insane variation is possible? I know you see these things LS, stop making me question your innocence.

Akrols is a one-shot Vig, one-shot Doc, and one-shot cop. We've used up the vig.

I'd prefer to lynch someone not confirmed by chris, and have Akrols investigate either Rust or Bmin. I'm 99.9% sure at this point that Akrols is town based on last night's actions. (Mafia + SK + Vig kills.) At the same time, I would bet he's sane too since they're all one-shot.

Akrols will then share his results. Chris can at the same time test something, worded in a way that eliminates either the naive or the insane possibility. (I cannot think of one that will eliminate both, while providing information.)

Foulcoon can shoot Lilac or LunaticMara or somesuch.

Based on the night results, we go from there. They can only kill one of us, and block one of us (assuming they have a roleblocker.)


I'd rather lynch either Lunatic or Pieguy today. I don't believe either one's plain townie claim.


TBH, I am questioning both Chris's sanity and alignment. As well as yours, Rolled (I feel really uneasy about you.). The evidence however sides with both of you being town, so that's what I'm going with.

Read my above plan, and see if it looks like something you'd go with.

Truthfully, I question the innocence of anybody who doesn't feel rust has given off the most scumtells in this game as of right now. Chris has a 1/3 chance of being sane as far as I'm concerned. Couple that with how rust is presenting himself, and today's lynch should be a nobrainer. Assuming Chris is sane, and basing today's lynch around that is a bad choice. Everybody in this game is familiar enough with the idea of Mafia games to know what scummy behavior consists of.

If serial killer wants to win this game, they need to kill a mafia member. Whether or not foulcoon is SK doesn't concern me at this point. Right now I want to get the ball back in town's court.

The likelihood of Chris being Sane is currently outweighing the likelihood of rust being mafia, given his composure?

What are you even basing Chris's sanity on? It's nothing more than a gut feeling, no solid evidence to back it.

Without lynching rust today, there is no 100% solid way to figure out the variation of Chris's role. Having to base his N4 actions around determining his (in)sanity is too long to wait.

Sure, we may be able to couple Chris's night action with Akro's, but there's too many variables in play. Roleblocking or NKing either of them will ruin it, possibly leaving them both dead without a confirmation of Chris's role.

As for rust, yes I do agree he seems scummy. However, I know personally that when I'm confirmed town with a decent power role, I'd prefer not to claim REGARDLESS of the strength of the role. I keep doubt in the minds of the mafia and SK and hopefully convince one to kill me if it's weak, or avoid being killed if it's strong. I would assume rust's role is weak from the fact that he does not have information, or it's a strong role that wouldn't have obvious effects unless he properly used it.

Let's see something here, so I can clarify for myself and might as well for others.

11 alive - 4 anti-town with one confirmed. (7 town)

If we mislynch, down to 6 town.

Next day, if SK and Mafia avoid eachother, we're down to 4 town.

With this in mind, we'd be in Lylo tomorrow? 4 townies, 2 mafia, 1 SK, 1 Lyncher. I think we'd have to hit the SK to win.

From my end, here's how things look.

1. LadySuburu - Town
2. Mashley - Anti-Town
3. Rolled - Town?
4. Lilac - Unknown
5. rust45 - Either Town or Scum, depending on Chris's sanity.
6. pieguy1372 - Scummy
7. foulcoon - Unknown, leaning anti-town.
8. akrolsmir - Town
9. Chris - Town?
10. bmin11 - Either Town or Scum, depending on Chris's sanity.
11. LunaticMara - Scummy

Assuming you and Chris are town, If we find out chris is sane or naive, not including his results from the next night:

1. LadySuburu - Town
3. Rolled - Town
8. akrolsmir - Town
9. Chris - Town

10. bmin11 - Town (Unconfirmed)
5. rust45 - Town (Unconfirmed)

2. Mashley - Anti-Town
4. Lilac - Unknown
6. pieguy1372 - Unknown
7. foulcoon - Unknown
11. LunaticMara - Unknown

That's 4 players to choose from, and we HAVE to hit the SK to still win. This list above doesn't take into account who is killed and who we lynch.


If chris is insane / naive:

1. LadySuburu - Town
2. Mashley - Anti-Town
3. Rolled - Town
4. Lilac - Unknown
5. rust45 - Unknown
6. pieguy1372 - Unknown
7. foulcoon - Unknown
8. akrolsmir - Town
9. Chris - Town
10. bmin11 - Unknown
11. LunaticMara - Unknown


At this point, I'm a bit stressed/tired to go over all of the possibilities. This is just a sliver of what I'm worried about here. If Chris is insane or naive we've basically already lost (is how it feels to me.). I feel safer going off of the assumption that he's sane.

However, if you can provide me some information (and convince me) on how we're not royally screwed if he's not sane, I'll go along with the rust lynch.

@above, there may be errors, but I'm too out of it to go through and correct them now. I just posted it about halfway through.

bmin11 wrote:

foulcoon - Mafia?

A mafia that went to shoot Two, but not Lilac while he said he will shoot Lilac?

What is this, admitting you're the SK and that you killed Wojjan?

How is that admitting?

I'll check LS's post after I get back from my class

foulcoon wrote:

What is this, admitting you're the SK and that you killed Wojjan?

I don't understand where it said that at all

explain

I don't understand where it said that either.

Anyway, assuming Chris is sane, which I'm really starting to doubt is true:

1. LadySuburu <- town
2. Mashley*
3. animask* Rolled
4. Lilac
5. rust45* <- town
6. pieguy1372 <- I know I'm not mafia, so I'll leave myself out
7. foulcoon
8. akrolsmir <- town
9. Chris <- town
10. bmin11 <- town
11. LunaticMara

That leaves

2. Mashley
I think, as I said before, that Mashley is mafia. He made a bunch of posts day 1, then disappeared day 2. He also bandwagoned day 1. He said he was a lyncher, but he really seems like mafia (and it's easy to lie about being something like that in a setup like this).

3. Rolled
Claimed busdriver. Who the hell did he switch? I couldn't find it anywhere...

4. Lilac
He was inactive day 1 and then suddenly became a lot more active day 2. His excuse for not being shot makes a lot of sense IMO, but if it's false, more on this below...

7. foulcoon
Claimed vigilante, and then got us into this web of WIFOM with Lilac. More on this below...

11. LunaticMara
Neutral on everything, and not very active, so I think he's mafia.

Now let's talk about Lilac+foulcoon. If Lilac did indeed leave N2, then we have three additional killers, four in total. It would then be mafia+SK+vig+1-shot vig (akrolsmir), which fits. If Lilac is lying, then there's no reason I can see for foulcoon not to have shot Lilac, so Lilac is definitely mafia and I presume they roleblocked foulcoon so a mafia wouldn't die. In that case, we had 4 killers (mafia+SK+vig+akrolsmir), but only three of them actually killed someone, so that fits. There's also the chance that they are both mafia, which leaves 3 killers: mafia+SK+1-shot vig. In both cases, the mafia shot Two, the SK Wojjan and akrolsmir shot Rantai. In the first case, foulcoon could either be town or SK.

I assume there are at least 4 mafia members, so at most we would have Mashley, Rolled, LunaticMara, foulcoon, and Lilac (plus Rantai, making a total of 6). Rolled claiming bus driver I think is fine because I think there would be a bus driver in a game this big (making 5). However, foulcoon and Lilac are both optional, and Mashley or LunaticMara might not be mafia. (I'm positive at least one of them is, so we have 1 to 4 mafia members.) However, we have a problem! We need 3 or 4 mafia members from those 4, and while it's possible at least 3 of them are, I'm willing to wager it's closer to 1 or 2 (Lilac might not be mafia, in which case foulcoon probably isn't mafia, and one of Mashley or LunaticMara is, though one of foulcoon or Lilac could be also). The conclusion here is that Chris couldn't possibly be sane, because I really don't think 3 of those 4 could be mafia..

So the assumption that Chris was sane is, definitely IMO, a contradiction. That means we still have to search for mafia among LadySuburu, rust45, akrolsmir, Chris, and bmin11.

1. LadySuburu
So, he's strager, and his explanation fits perfectly into why DxS wasn't lynched. However, is it just me, or can this role be just as equally mafia as town? However, he seems to be helping a lot, so he's probably town.

5. rust45
We need a roleclaim from him. As we have figured out by now, Chris probably isn't sane, so he's really not confirmed town. If he was town, I'm sure he'd roleclaim anyway because it would give us information that would be useful. His unwillingness indicates that either he has a powerful role, which I don't think is true because we already lost the cop (though he might be the doctor) and we have a lot of other powerful roles, or that he's trying to hide something.

8. akrolsmir
akrolsmir is definitely town. He fits into the whole situation with foulcoon+Lilac in all possibilities, so there's no chance he's mafia IMO. There is a chance he's the SK, but it's a small one because we would need another killer and if he wasn't it, I'm certain the real vigilante would have called him out on it.

9. Chris
Actually, I think Chris is mafia. /me runs

Seriously, no one else has seen the chance of him being mafia? It would be a master plan, and also fits with the contradiction realized earlier. Or maybe he's the SK. I have no idea about him, but I know that his results can't be true at least. I also don't think that there would be a naive lie detector, but given Two that does make a lot of sense...

10. bmin11
I haven't bothered to get a good read on him at all, and for now I don't feel like reading 46 pages because I've already spent forever typing this post. In general, he seems to be pretty active and helping a lot, but I haven't searched for any hidden feeling within his posts yet.

List from scum to town:

Mashley
LunaticMara
rust45
foulcoon
Lilac
LadySuburu
Chris
Rolled
bmin11
akrolsmir

We still need to know who the SK is, and soon because we need to stop these double NKs. foulcoon has a pretty good shot at being the SK, but if it's not him I think it's probably rust, or maybe bmin11.

As for what Chris should ask, we already know he's not sane, so does it even matter? We might as well just go with "akrolsmir is mafia" and if it's true, we'll know he's naive or insane.

We're running out of time so I'll go ahead and vote Mashley.

Actually, you know what? Since we know Chris isn't sane, we should go with something that allows us to tell if he's naive or insane. If he's insane, we still have some information from what he said.

I recommend "akrolsmir is town", in that case. True = naive and False = insane.

Hi Kiddo-kun~

Oh wait, I realized I probably shouldn't vote Mashley at this point, because we need to lynch the SK as soon as possible. Mashley is more likely mafia than SK at this point IMO.

Any thoughts on who the SK is?

Ohai there, I'll try to read through these 40+ pages today.

Trust chris for now or we're basically dead anyways. I'm looking to lynch one of: Lilac, foulcoon, Mara, Mashley, in that order more or less.

Also, did rantai ever vote? I'm thinking we could try vote analysis, on that and to see who's been on the wagons.

Holy shit, so much text in here. I'll try to read this stuff again once at work.

Actually, I'm at least getting content from pie. (Even if I'm sure he's scum. I'm just about as sure that Mara is.)

Unvote, Vote: LunaticMara

LadySuburu wrote:

Unvote, Vote: pieguy1372

If I may ask, why? Is there a flaw in my reasoning? If so, please point this out so I can avoid it in the future.

Anyway, no thoughts on who the SK is? It's imperative we hit the SK as soon as possible to stop the double NKs.

Alternatively, I guess we could just go for a mafia member today and hit the SK tomorrow, because we'll still have a bit of time if we hit a mafia today. However, if we miss it's practically game over. >.> aaaaaa

pieguy1372 wrote:

If I may ask, why? Is there a flaw in my reasoning? If so, please point this out so I can avoid it in the future.

Anyway, no thoughts on who the SK is? It's imperative we hit the SK as soon as possible to stop the double NKs.

Alternatively, I guess we could just go for a mafia member today and hit the SK tomorrow, because we'll still have a bit of time if we hit a mafia today. However, if we miss it's practically game over. >.> aaaaaa

Might as well show you.

pieguy1372 wrote:

The conclusion here is that Chris couldn't possibly be sane, because I really don't think 3 of those 4 could be mafia..

So it's impossible because you think it can't be true?

pieguy1372 wrote:

Actually, you know what? Since we know Chris isn't sane

We know this for sure now? That's news to me. It's not good trying to convince others to go along with something unproven as if it's proven.

pieguy1372 wrote:

So the assumption that Chris was sane is, definitely IMO, a contradiction. That means we still have to search for mafia among LadySuburu, rust45, akrolsmir, Chris, and bmin11.

Oh, so we don't need to search between the other unconfirmed? Also, how is it a contradiction?

pieguy1372 wrote:

I recommend "akrolsmir is town", in that case. True = naive and False = insane.

Except that if he's sane it will come out true.

-------------------

+Townie Roleclaim in a game where I'm 95% sure there aren't townies.

Oh, and unless Rolled (who for some reason has viewed the thread a few times since I've posted asking him for evidence that we're not already screwed if Chris isn't sane) gives me that said evidence/logic/ect... I'm going to continue to assume he's sane.


That's just from the last two posts, and isn't including the fact that since I'm assuming that chris is sane the odds that you're mafia or SK are extremely high from my point of view.

That seems reasonable I guess, for some reason no one wants to lynch Lilac/foulcoon.

Vote: LunaticMara

I still have an investigative shot tonight, so who do I examine? And how do we get me to survive to show the results?

This seems horribly self-centered but perhaps we could have rolled bus me instead of chris. After all, if he dies then at least we'll know his sanity, and if he doesn't die then we grow more suspicious of him. But then, mafia could just block rolled and shoot me. Maybe I"ll be better off protecting myself tonight?

akrolsmir wrote:

That seems reasonable I guess, for some reason no one wants to lynch Lilac/foulcoon.

Vote: LunaticMara

I still have an investigative shot tonight, so who do I examine? And how do we get me to survive to show the results?

This seems horribly self-centered but perhaps we could have rolled bus me instead of chris. After all, if he dies then at least we'll know his sanity, and if he doesn't die then we grow more suspicious of him. But then, mafia could just block rolled and shoot me. Maybe I"ll be better off protecting myself tonight?

Not sure if he dies that we'll get his sanity or not.

I'd say investigate Foul. If you also can protect, then protect yourself or Chris if you can't protect yourself. Otherwise, just investigate Foul.

We know this for sure now? That's news to me. It's not good trying to convince others to go along with something unproven as if it's proven.

Everything after I proposed Chris wasn't sane was assuming Chris was not sane...I had a "certain" tone in those posts, but that's because it was assuming it was true, not because it was necessarily "proven" (though at this point I estimate the chance of it being true is around 80%). Sorry if I implied the wrong idea.

As for Chris being insane, I just find it extremely hard for things to add up if he is sane. We'd need 3 mafia members among foulcoon, Mashley, LunaticMara, and Lilac (or Rolled, but I'm quite sure he's town). It's possible, especially with both Mashley and LunaticMara being suspicious, but IMO it's a bit of a stretch (and given what Lilac said, it makes me think that him and foulcoon both being town is a likely possibility). I'm around 80% confident Chris isn't sane at this point (and 19% of the remaining 20% is attributed to if there were only 3 mafia members to start with).

Oh, so we don't need to search between the other unconfirmed? Also, how is it a contradiction?

I already did that. Notice how I said "still". Also, by "contradiction" I meant when you assume something is true and then prove it leads to a contradiction, in order to prove it's not true (as in a proof by contradiction).


Might as well unvote + vote LunaticMara since we're almost out of time...and after thinking about it more I think he's a bit more suspicious than Mashley

Also, I'd be all for actually testing Chris's sanity first if we had enough time, but as I said we are running out of time...

Uh oh, more new posts *has to type more*... I think you should investigate foulcoon, because he could be any of the three options and has a pretty good shot at being a SK.

Speaking of Mashley... Where the hell is he?

He said he had a few other games and "screw posting"...

I'm not sure what to think of that...

wat

I've already failed my win condition, what do you expect from me?

Well you can start by voting me for the next president.

I'm so in lost right now. Too much What If What If What If orz

I won't be here for the last hours of D3, so I won't vote just in case something else comes up and you guys want to change the lynch or something.

Vote: pieguy

I just find him more suspicious than the other vanilla town claims. Even though mara looks scummy I think hes just a dumbass, not a mafia.

I do agree with LS on a great majority of things. I think there is very little chance of more than 1 or 2 vanilla town. We have had multiple claims of plain town so I'm looking at someone there. I feel like pieguy is giving us just enough to keep himself alive.

I also have a strong suspicion on bmin. I know some of you guys didn't get my SK line earlier, but I was basically saying he said that I was mafia and NK'd one target, when there were 3 NK deaths. We know one is confirmed to have come from akro, so why is one specific person the mafia NK target? How could bmin possibly know which player was killed by mafia, and which person was killed by SK. I was mainly just being a smartass but think about it, was this a slip-up on his part? Willing to bet he is the SK.

foulcoon wrote:

Willing to bet he is the SK.

if you are willing to bet it why are you voting for pieguy and not him

Chris wrote:

foulcoon wrote:

Willing to bet he is the SK.

if you are willing to bet it why are you voting for pieguy and not him

because I doubt anyone else is going to vote for him?

Unvote, Vote: bmin11

happy?

Oh now I see. I was referring to

Chris wrote:

foulcoon killed Two
Mafia killed Wojjan
akrolsmir killed Rantai

I realized I remembered it wrong. Sorry for being forgetful.



EDIT: Since I can still log in for an hour, I'll Vote: LunaticMara. He's attitude towards scumhunting is suspicious. It's as seem he think everyone is neutral, not knowing how to accuse others. The reason why I think this is happening to Mara, is because he already knows others are townie. It's really hard to forge an accusation when you know the person is townie. I had the same trouble when I was mafia as well.

Vote Count (sorry for falling behind on this)

LunaticMara (4) LadySuburu, akrosmir, Mashley, pieguy
foulcoon (2) Chris, Lilac
Lilac (1) foulcoon
Kiddo-kun (1) Rolled

Deadline is in 1 day, 7 hours.

Few more votes and victory!

LS wrote:

Oh, and unless Rolled (who for some reason has viewed the thread a few times since I've posted asking him for evidence that we're not already screwed if Chris isn't sane) gives me that said evidence/logic/ect... I'm going to continue to assume he's sane.

Well, this was pretty much what my plan consisted of:

Lynch rust -1 mafia
Make foulcoon (assuming SK) shoot lilac -1 mafia
I get lucky and redirect a kill placed on akro/Chris (50/50 chance, though I probably would have picked Chris) on Lunaticmara -1 mafia

Next day lynch SK, and we could win.

Obviously this is the optimal scenario. The fact that I'm now broadcasting it makes it pretty null. I still think rust needs to go (Kiddo didn't even post yet) but I guess lynching mara isn't a terrible decision. I just don't think it's the best.

Oh well though, we'll see how things go tomorrow.

For the record, I feel we should be in agreement that if foulcoon does not kill the majority wish overnight, he's lynched tomorrow. I'd like lilac for reasons I don't even remember (I'm pretty much just carrying over last night's plan)

Huzzah, I'm getting stupidly killed for stupid reasons such as since everyone is confirmed town then you must be Mafia. As much as you want to think Hito is a corrupt BAT it's not what you think, it's always up to the host.

You can't ask foul to NK me because he can't do it either. What a sham.

That said... Unvote, Vote: Mara. Victory.

Voted for him because of what I stated earlier that he could be the SK. Plus he's really no help to town, regardless of possible language constraints.

Lilac wrote:

You can't ask foul to NK me because he can't do it either. What a sham.

That said... Unvote, Vote: Mara. Victory.

If you're town, it would be better not to hide tonight if you can hide on consecutive nights. Otherwise you're just confusing us more by making us unsure of both foul and your alignments.

Lilac wrote:

regardless of possible language constraints.

WAT JUU SAI

ME N UNDSTAND

I'm considering hammering just to shut him up.

Let's figure out what we're doing with foulcoon though, first.

Foulcoon, who do you feel most comfortable shooting?

For foulcoon... If Mara turns out to be town, maybe shoot pieguy? Else...not chris (yet), perhaps Mashley- I could definitely see him as actually mafia and remaining beneath our suspicions.

Meanwhile I'm supposed to be investigating foulcoon while protecting myself?

Also I think it's interesting that the mafia didn't use their "silence" ability today.