he can, but it's 1/3 (1/4 from your pov)
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5-P Dethy Mafia (N2) - The Endgame
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if he isn't we won't be able to say who's the sk unless the sk makes a mistake on his fake inspection
Also we need to decide an order of claims tomorrow, it's usually most suspect first and then it goes on until the least suspect.
Nyquill -> Lincolm -> Sakura -> Sephi -> MeSakura wrote:
Also we need to decide an order of claims tomorrow, it's usually most suspect first and then it goes on until the least suspect.
(Sakura/Sephi can be switched if needed)
I'm fine with that order.
there are big problems in both my and gif's strategies, and the claim order wouldn't mean a thing since sk would still know what he needs to claim even without knowing what outcome the others got
Actually, that would be a problem of every "strategies" used in Dethy ever.Sephibro wrote:
there are big problems in both my and gif's strategies, and the claim order wouldn't mean a thing since sk would still know what he needs to claim even without knowing what outcome the others got
It seems after I slept and went to school the plan is over. I can go with both plan, though I rather not random lynch. I mean, I don't understand based what of Nyquill is lynched. But I agree with Sakura, it is better with the confirmed rather than not confirmed.
BooLincolm wrote:
though I rather not random lynch.
It's not random lynch in any way.
He's my #1 scumread via PoE and his lynch works perfectly with my plan.
I'd like to know how you deduced I'm scum simply because I checked Lincoln instead of Sakura, or even worse, because I claimed last.
w.e, failure scumread.
w.e, failure scumread.
I still don't see why. It is more likely the plan based on "I give the plan, but we lynch Nyquill" isn't it?
But still, we're stuck in here. No one want to discuss, but the plan. I think we're going to have plenty more in day 2, so Vote : Nyquill
But still, we're stuck in here. No one want to discuss, but the plan. I think we're going to have plenty more in day 2, so Vote : Nyquill
Also, since I'm not sk, your plan tommorow depends heavily on what scum actually claims tommorow. Since there is no third round of checking, you better make it count.
All on GiF if this doesn't work.
All on GiF if this doesn't work.
So ok im checking Lincolm then, right?
GuyInFreezer wrote:
So here's my offer.
Lynch Nyquill
Seph -> Lincolm
Lincolm -> Seph
Sakura -> Lincolm
me -> Seph
Percentage of netting confirmed scum tomorrow: Average of 96.5%.
I just realized how stupid this is. Depending on who scum is, he might know exactly what to claim to turn it into a 1v1.
I remember mentioning PoE, but I don't remember accusing you for being scum for stuff like that.Nyquill wrote:
I'd like to know how you deduced I'm scum simply because I checked Lincoln instead of Sakura, or even worse, because I claimed last.
w.e, failure scumread.
But my plan nets confirmed scum even with a direct counterclaim.Nyquill wrote:
I just realized how stupid this is. Depending on who scum is, he might know exactly what to claim to turn it into a 1v1.
Here's an example.
S1I quoted this because I don't see Sephi being scum in this game.
Sephi: Sakura Inno, Lincolm inno (Naive)
Sakura: Sephi Guilty, Lincolm inno (Insane)
Lincolm: Sakura Inno, Sephi inno (Naive)
-Nyquill is sane, and GIF is paranoid. Sakura is confirmed town because Sephi and Lincolm CC each other.
Since Nyquill was sane and got inno on Lincolm, Sephi is confirmed scum.
Result: Sephi confirmed scum.
Then let me hear YOUR idea.Nyquill wrote:
I just realized how stupid this is. Depending on who scum is, he might know exactly what to claim to turn it into a 1v1.
All you've done so far is whining.
Nyquill wrote:
fwiw, i'm okay with being lynched if anyone feels its necessary, but lynching me generates a miniscule amount of information, so D2 will be quite the challenge.
"Whatever, man. Go ahead and lynch me as long as it catches scum." (Self-defeatism)Nyquill wrote:
still a waste of a free lynch to lynch me though, but whatever catches scum in the end I guess
*Gives out high percentage of catching scum by lynching Nyquill*GuyInFreezer wrote:
Sooo if we follow my plan and I die tonight, it's .25 (Nyquill scum) + .75 {.875 (confirmed scum) + (.125/2 (lynching correctly in LyLo with one confirmed town))} = 95.31%.
If we follow my plan and I don't die tonight, it's .25 + (.75 * 0.969) = 97.68%.GuyInFreezer wrote:
So here's my offer.
Lynch Nyquill
Seph -> Lincolm
Lincolm -> Seph
Sakura -> Lincolm
me -> Seph
Percentage of netting confirmed scum tomorrow: Average of 96.5%.
Nyquill wrote:
Also, since I'm not sk, your plan tommorow depends heavily on what scum actually claims tommorow. Since there is no third round of checking, you better make it count.
All on GiF if this doesn't work.
"OMG DUUUUUUDE THAT PLAN SUCKSSSSS YOUR PLAN IS GONNA FAIL (SO LYNCHING ME IS A STUPID IDEAAAAA)"Nyquill wrote:
I just realized how stupid this is. Depending on who scum is, he might know exactly what to claim to turn it into a 1v1.
Nope.Lincolm wrote:
I still don't see why. It is more likely the plan based on "I give the plan, but we lynch Nyquill" isn't it?
Oh, you must be talking about this one.GuyInFreezer wrote:
And I feel like lynching Nyquill because he didn't had a report on Sakura
Note the ":P" at the end.
@Sephi: When you come back, can you do the ISO link thingy?
no, whoever is scum, if you are not this will be a 50:50 next dayNyquill wrote:
I just realized how stupid this is. Depending on who scum is, he might know exactly what to claim to turn it into a 1v1.
Jinxy just did one in the ISO archive.GuyInFreezer wrote:
@Sephi: When you come back, can you do the ISO link thingy?
In this example wouldnt mean I'm sane since i got guilty on sephi?GuyInFreezer wrote:
Here's an example.S1I quoted this because I don't see Sephi being scum in this game.
Sephi: Sakura Inno, Lincolm inno (Naive)
Sakura: Sephi Guilty, Lincolm inno (Insane)
Lincolm: Sakura Inno, Sephi inno (Naive)
-Nyquill is sane, and GIF is paranoid. Sakura is confirmed town because Sephi and Lincolm CC each other.
Since Nyquill was sane and got inno on Lincolm, Sephi is confirmed scum.
Result: Sephi confirmed scum.
mod: NoHitter
1. Sakura
2. GuyInFreezer
3. Sephibro
4. Lincolm
5. Nyquill
1. Sakura
2. GuyInFreezer
3. Sephibro
4. Lincolm
5. Nyquill
mod: [url=https://osu.ppy.sh/forum/search.php?author_id=124455&t=168048]NoHitter[/url]
1. [url=https://osu.ppy.sh/forum/search.php?author_id=289422&t=168048]Sakura[/url]
2. [url=https://osu.ppy.sh/forum/search.php?author_id=2746131&t=168048]GuyInFreezer[/url]
3. [url=https://osu.ppy.sh/forum/search.php?author_id=2061922&t=168048]Sephibro[/url]
4. [url=https://osu.ppy.sh/forum/search.php?author_id=1199128&t=168048]Lincolm[/url]
5. [url=https://osu.ppy.sh/forum/search.php?author_id=682935&t=168048]Nyquill[/url]
The another reason I quoted that is because that scenario can never happen (and means that Nyquill was scum)Sakura wrote:
In this example wouldnt mean I'm sane since i got guilty on sephi?
btw yes, the plan is
1. random lynch nyquill because he's the most likely scum
2. random lynch again because we won't have further information unless sk makes a mistake and it will be lylo
1. random lynch nyquill because he's the most likely scum
2. random lynch again because we won't have further information unless sk makes a mistake and it will be lylo
Since when lynching "most likely scum" was a random lynch?
If it was a sarcastic post, well, my sarcasm-radar is broken.
Also, it's amusing to find such a scenario that can not happen even with SK lying to the account.
actually the best thing we can do is inspecting without deciding before
GuyInFreezer wrote:
Since when lynching "most likely scum" was a random lynch?
I was gonna suggest that too.Sephibro wrote:
actually the best thing we can do is inspecting without deciding before
I'm gonna reveal my reaction test in few hours.
Claim order stays.
i was so hyphed with this game beause i thought we could win with just math but fucking chance is always there ç_ç
if we don't reveal who we are going to inspect, it's sk who'll have to rely upon chance
if we don't reveal who we are going to inspect, it's sk who'll have to rely upon chance
yeah obviouslyGuyInFreezer wrote:
Claim order stays.
Welcome to dethy.Sephibro wrote:
i was so hyphed with this game beause i thought we could win with just math but fucking chance is always there ç_ç
if we don't reveal who we are going to inspect, it's sk who'll have to rely upon chance
In dethy, 1v1 in LyLo is almost certain to happen.
Dethy is already heavily-townsided setup so granting town 100% win strategy would be too much for SK.
Dethy is already heavily-townsided setup so granting town 100% win strategy would be too much for SK.
It's like perfection. Can't achieve it, but can pursue it.
I believe I was questioning how your POE worked, and your thought process behind that, because atm I have no fucking clue whats going on and why.
PoE means, he's townreading everyone else to various degrees, and you're the least town read or the only null read.Nyquill wrote:
I believe I was questioning how your POE worked, and your thought process behind that, because atm I have no fucking clue whats going on and why.
That's how PoE works.
Because if you take away "didn't inspect sakura" and "last to claim" theres nothing else. Though I guess "didn't inspect sakura" can go into it, how you arrived at the conclusion to slap me with most likely scum is beyond me.
Also, better idea? Lynch someone other than me because I'm not scum. Though I guess thats too much to ask for.
Like I said, whatever. If lynching me today means we can have an easier 1v1 tommorow or whatever crap you can think of, just do it.
Also, better idea? Lynch someone other than me because I'm not scum. Though I guess thats too much to ask for.
Like I said, whatever. If lynching me today means we can have an easier 1v1 tommorow or whatever crap you can think of, just do it.
Also, I don't know how you're getting these figures, so I can possibly work them in other ways to see if a nolynch would be better than a random lynch.
Sakura: I know that, I'm wondering how I came to be least town read.
Besides,
Sakura: I know that, I'm wondering how I came to be least town read.
Besides,
GuyInFreezer wrote:
Also why Nyquill should be lynched today:
1. Sephibro got guilty'd by Sakura, who is confirmed town and confirmed not sane. There's 50% chance that Sakura is insane, therefore he has a chance to be town.
2. Lincolm got inno'd by Nyquill, whose role is unknown. If Nyquill is SK, it basically clears Lincolm. Therefore, he has a chance to be town, albeit lower than Sephi's.
3. Nyquill, on other hand, have no chance of being town based on today's report. There IS a chance of Nyquill being town, but it's lower than Sephi's and Lincolm's, therefore highest chance of being scum.
oh actually you know what,
Fuck it, there was nothing I could have done during the day to change anything that happens
This is valid enough.GuyInFreezer wrote:
Also why Nyquill should be lynched today:
1. Sephibro got guilty'd by Sakura, who is confirmed town and confirmed not sane. There's 50% chance that Sakura is insane, therefore he has a chance to be town.
2. Lincolm got inno'd by Nyquill, whose role is unknown. If Nyquill is SK, it basically clears Lincolm. Therefore, he has a chance to be town, albeit lower than Sephi's.
3. Nyquill, on other hand, have no chance of being town based on today's report. There IS a chance of Nyquill being town, but it's lower than Sephi's and Lincolm's, therefore highest chance of being scum.
Fuck it, there was nothing I could have done during the day to change anything that happens
Is that a scumclaim?
Because I never had any intention to lynch today.
Because I never had any intention to lynch today.
But if you're claiming scum, we have no reason not to.*
no, I'm just resigning to the fact that theres more than enough reason to lynch me regardless. If you keep me alive, that will be a lot of probability up in the air D2
fwiw, I still think a lynch is better than nl
Dethy is logic-heavy game, which means more info is good for town.
So D1 is usually a no-lynch. And if we NL D1, we also NL D2 as well, because it is guaranteed that scum won't skip a kill.
Scum skipping a kill is almost suicide.
As far as the read goes, I have a very strong townread on sephi for his overall performances.
Sakura's townread is 50% gut 50% post-"conftown" posts. It was my genuine mistake to make her "conftown", but I think scum will feel at least a bit awkward to be "confirmed town" out of the blue.
Lincolm is slightly above you because at least, he's trying to protect someone. Dunno if the mindset is scum saving up mislynch for later or town protecting, though.
Also, as I said, this game is heavily-townsided. So I expect scum to whine than town.
So, if we're gonna nl anyway, why all the different-solutions talk?
Because it gives scum a headache!
(Well, it can give town a headache too, but scum's the one who needs to find a loophole!)
And now, we flash nl.
Nyquill checks sakura, and everyone else check randomly.
vote: no lynch
So D1 is usually a no-lynch. And if we NL D1, we also NL D2 as well, because it is guaranteed that scum won't skip a kill.
Scum skipping a kill is almost suicide.
As far as the read goes, I have a very strong townread on sephi for his overall performances.
Sakura's townread is 50% gut 50% post-"conftown" posts. It was my genuine mistake to make her "conftown", but I think scum will feel at least a bit awkward to be "confirmed town" out of the blue.
Lincolm is slightly above you because at least, he's trying to protect someone. Dunno if the mindset is scum saving up mislynch for later or town protecting, though.
Also, as I said, this game is heavily-townsided. So I expect scum to whine than town.
So, if we're gonna nl anyway, why all the different-solutions talk?
Because it gives scum a headache!
(Well, it can give town a headache too, but scum's the one who needs to find a loophole!)
And now, we flash nl.
Nyquill checks sakura, and everyone else check randomly.
vote: no lynch
If I die tonight, y'all know the claim order.
Vote: NL
My "strategy."GuyInFreezer wrote:
I'm gonna reveal my reaction test in few hours.
I bluffed the number. (The correct percentage is 90.625% town win, and that makes it about 93%-ish average.)
I actually still don't know if nl was better than lynch, since lynch 100%s someone with 1 round of investigations, while nl has 2 rounds of investigations.
ebwop: 100%s someone + chance at hitting scum, but I guess I'll have to see how to goes since you're so confident about it
3 rounds, actually.Nyquill wrote:
I actually still don't know if nl was better than lynch, since lynch 100%s someone with 1 round of investigations, while nl has 2 rounds of investigations.
Topic Starter
"What? No lynching today?" the moderator asks with a disappointed voice. "And here I thought you would actually try something different."
She stares at the group of five then laughs.
"Three people, GuyInFreezer, Sephibro, and Sakura wanted no lynch today. On the other hand, two people, Lincolm and Nyquill, were too indecisive." she recaps the end result of the discussion.
"Very well then, you guys probably know that the killer will strike soon, so I wish you good luck." the girl says as she leaves the room. "You guys do know that your investigations are sub par, right? You should have just tried to kill someone today."
The first night is upon you. I hope your discussions will be fruitful tonight.
You will only have 24 hours for this stage. Good luck to you all.
Mod Note: Added the ISOs at the start of the post. Thanks Sephibro. Also, we exceeded Multiball in amount of posts.
She stares at the group of five then laughs.
"Three people, GuyInFreezer, Sephibro, and Sakura wanted no lynch today. On the other hand, two people, Lincolm and Nyquill, were too indecisive." she recaps the end result of the discussion.
"Very well then, you guys probably know that the killer will strike soon, so I wish you good luck." the girl says as she leaves the room. "You guys do know that your investigations are sub par, right? You should have just tried to kill someone today."
The first night is upon you. I hope your discussions will be fruitful tonight.
You will only have 24 hours for this stage. Good luck to you all.
Mod Note: Added the ISOs at the start of the post. Thanks Sephibro. Also, we exceeded Multiball in amount of posts.
Topic Starter
Mod Note: I'll be late for the start of the day, because something came up. I apologize for this.
Topic Starter
Suddenly from out of nowhere, a piece of music started to play. Everyone tilted their heads in confusion, except for one who was visibly shaken up by hearing it.
"Stop it! Stop that music!" Sakura shouted as her body appeared to be flickering.
え？...何するの...？
削除する...ですって？
The moderator raised her eyebrows. She herself didn't know where the music was playing from, but she had a hunch. Actually considering her intellect, her "guess" was probably right.
"Where is that music coming from?" Sakura continued to fidget around, searching the room while the rest of the group stood silent in their surprise.
No matter what she did though, the music didn't stop.
アリガトウ・・・・ソシテ・・・サヨナラ・・・・
---深刻なエラーが発生しました---
---深刻なエラーが発生しました---
The song finally ended. Sakura had vanished into thin air. Actually to be more precise, it appeared as if her body turned into binary code then disappeared.
After a short silence, the moderator spoke, "Well that was an interesting way to kill someone. I would have never expected it. Either way, I can tell you that Sakura was a Cop. The killer is still alive."
The second day has started. I hope this time, you will determine who the killer is.
You will be given another 72 hours for this stage. Good luck!
Mod Note: Plus points to who can get the flavor.
"Stop it! Stop that music!" Sakura shouted as her body appeared to be flickering.
え？...何するの...？
削除する...ですって？
The moderator raised her eyebrows. She herself didn't know where the music was playing from, but she had a hunch. Actually considering her intellect, her "guess" was probably right.
"Where is that music coming from?" Sakura continued to fidget around, searching the room while the rest of the group stood silent in their surprise.
No matter what she did though, the music didn't stop.
アリガトウ・・・・ソシテ・・・サヨナラ・・・・
---深刻なエラーが発生しました---
---深刻なエラーが発生しました---
The song finally ended. Sakura had vanished into thin air. Actually to be more precise, it appeared as if her body turned into binary code then disappeared.
After a short silence, the moderator spoke, "Well that was an interesting way to kill someone. I would have never expected it. Either way, I can tell you that Sakura was a Cop. The killer is still alive."
The second day has started. I hope this time, you will determine who the killer is.
You will be given another 72 hours for this stage. Good luck!
Mod Note: Plus points to who can get the flavor.
Innocent on Sakura.
I am now not insane, not paranoid.
Actually thats no new information.
You look even worse with that report.
(Sakura, who would've been confirmed town with that report today, died n1.)
(Sakura, who would've been confirmed town with that report today, died n1.)
In hindsight, a lynch would have been better. We would have had at least one conf town for lylo.
Lincolm is probably scum
Tonight I'm gonna have myself a real good time
I feel alive and the world it's turning inside out Yeah!
I'm floating around in ecstasy
So don't stop me now don't stop me
'Cause I'm having a good time having a good time
I'm a shooting star leaping through the skies
Like a tiger defying the laws of gravity
I'm a racing car passing by like Lady Godiva
I'm gonna go go go
There's no stopping me
I'm burning through the sky yeah!
Two hundred degrees
That's why they call me Mister Fahrenheit
I'm trav'ling at the speed of light
I wanna make a supersonic man out of you
Don't stop me now
I'm having such a good time
I'm having a ball
Don't stop me now
If you wanna have a good time
Just give me a call
Don't stop me now ('cause I'm having a good time)
Don't stop me now (yes I'm having a good time)
I don't want to stop at all... yeah!
I'm a rocket ship on my way to Mars
On a collision course
I am a satellite I'm out of control
I am a sex machine ready to reload
Like an atom bomb about to
Oh oh oh oh oh explode
I'm burning through the sky Yeah!
Two hundred degrees
That's why they call me Mister Fahrenheit
I'm trav'ling at the speed of light
I wanna make a supersonic woman of you
Don't stop me
Don't stop me
Don't stop me
Hey hey hey!
Don't stop me
Don't stop me
Ooh ooh ooh
Don't stop me
Don't stop me
Have a good time, good time
Don't stop me
Don't stop me
Ooh ooh alright
Ooh I'm burning through the sky yeah!
Two hundred degrees
That's why they call me Mister Fahrenheit
I'm trav'ling at the speed of light
I wanna make a supersonic man out of you
Don't stop me now
I'm having such a good time
I'm having a ball
Don't stop me now
If you wanna have a good time
Just give me a call
Don't stop me now
Don't stop me now
I don't wanna stop at all
I feel alive and the world it's turning inside out Yeah!
I'm floating around in ecstasy
So don't stop me now don't stop me
'Cause I'm having a good time having a good time
I'm a shooting star leaping through the skies
Like a tiger defying the laws of gravity
I'm a racing car passing by like Lady Godiva
I'm gonna go go go
There's no stopping me
I'm burning through the sky yeah!
Two hundred degrees
That's why they call me Mister Fahrenheit
I'm trav'ling at the speed of light
I wanna make a supersonic man out of you
Don't stop me now
I'm having such a good time
I'm having a ball
Don't stop me now
If you wanna have a good time
Just give me a call
Don't stop me now ('cause I'm having a good time)
Don't stop me now (yes I'm having a good time)
I don't want to stop at all... yeah!
I'm a rocket ship on my way to Mars
On a collision course
I am a satellite I'm out of control
I am a sex machine ready to reload
Like an atom bomb about to
Oh oh oh oh oh explode
I'm burning through the sky Yeah!
Two hundred degrees
That's why they call me Mister Fahrenheit
I'm trav'ling at the speed of light
I wanna make a supersonic woman of you
Don't stop me
Don't stop me
Don't stop me
Hey hey hey!
Don't stop me
Don't stop me
Ooh ooh ooh
Don't stop me
Don't stop me
Have a good time, good time
Don't stop me
Don't stop me
Ooh ooh alright
Ooh I'm burning through the sky yeah!
Two hundred degrees
That's why they call me Mister Fahrenheit
I'm trav'ling at the speed of light
I wanna make a supersonic man out of you
Don't stop me now
I'm having such a good time
I'm having a ball
Don't stop me now
If you wanna have a good time
Just give me a call
Don't stop me now
Don't stop me now
I don't wanna stop at all
Caught in a landslide, no escape from reality
Look up to the skies and seeeee!
I'm just a poor boy, I need no sympathy
lincolmmmmm where art thou
oh wherefore art thou lincolm
My timezone is different with you guys. Nyquill is innocent. Maybe...
wow GiF if you checked me we are in best case scenario and lincolm is guilty
otherwise lincolm is still guilty but i could be guilty too
Nyquill: Innocent
Nyquill conftown
otherwise lincolm is still guilty but i could be guilty too
Nyquill: Innocent
Nyquill conftown
I was regretting it since yesterday.Sephibro wrote:
wow GiF if you checked me we are in best case scenario and lincolm is guilty
otherwise lincolm is still guilty but i could be guilty too
Nyquill: Innocent
Nyquill conftown
btw Nyquill guilty
As soon as the day started, I was like "wait why did I not check Sephi when my result could confirm him"
I love how no one's result flipped.
Also why is Nyquill clear again>
both me and Lincolm got Innocent on himSephibro wrote:
If Nyquill is SK
Sephi: Naive/Sane
Sakura: Paranoid/Insane
GiF: Paranoid/Insane
Lincolm: Naive/Sane
and GiF, :C
i expected you to claim you had inspected me even if you hadn't to reaction test
i expected you to claim you had inspected me even if you hadn't to reaction test
Oh ok.
Not necessary.Sephibro wrote:
and GiF, :C
i expected you to claim you had inspected me even if you hadn't to reaction test
I'm actually ready to vote Lincolm in few hours.
btw i am ready to vote lincolm, you and nyquill shouldn't
Are we gonna do one more investigative round?
now i'm the only one who knows 100% who's the SK (along with Lincolm, obviously )
with another round we could wipe every doubt
I guess it's obvious enough for each one who's their respective target, if it's not just ask
vote: No Lynch
)with another round we could wipe every doubt
I guess it's obvious enough for each one who's their respective target, if it's not just ask
vote: No Lynch
Nah.
Extra inv is useless.
vote: lincolm
Extra inv is useless.
vote: lincolm
Vote: Lincolm
INB4 SEPHI IS GOD
INB4 SEPHI IS GOD