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Some Statistical Analisys Rankings>Perfomance

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Topic Starter
el-ev-en
Warning. There is huge amount of math. Also my English isn't good enough. Sorry about that.

I took results for top 2000 osu!players from my country (top 2000 is similar to top 50k in the world ), made spreadsheet and used some mathematical software to find hidden trends in this stats. I've found some interesting facts, this facts may be true for other countries too. It was looking something like that:

https://imgur.com/a/SGXVO

Maybe it will be interesting for someone too:

1. Advice "Play More!" is statistically confirmed! There is strong correlation 0.65 (dependence between two variables) between Play Count and total pp for players. I could say, that "Play More" is 65% what You need to get more pp. 1 or -1 is maximal correlation possible.
Other facts: average player gets about 1pp for every 8 Play Count points. There is no players in top 2000 russian players, who would get less than 1pp for every 40 Play Count points.

2. Top players have better accuracy (for account), than everage player. Average accuracy grew from 97% for 50k rank to 98.9% in the top. Also, there is group of people, who can get many pp and they have lesser than 96% accuracy. But even very best from them can't only very best from them can get more, than 4k pp.




I filter suspicious results, so this must be real accounts.

Correlation between Accuracy and pp is 0.4, so it could be good idea to improve account's accuracy up to 99%

3. It looks like, it is very important for new players to get decent level. There isn't so many people, who can get pp without at least 95-96 lvl, even if they've many Play Count points. I guess, it happens because new player need learn take big combo. When new player get big combo, he also get many level points. He can't get pp without taking combo. Correlation between pp and lvl is 0.64, just like for Play Count. Maybe trying to fc long maps is good idea for new players?

4. I've also collected some data for correlation between total pp and numbers of A, S and SS, that player can get.
for A correlation coefficient is 0.35 for S is 0.45 and for SS is 0.25
Also, people who get more than 90 SS or 800 A don't get more pp than people who get less SS or A grades.



But it is different for S. People with more S get more pp always. And also correlation is strongest for S.

Average player gets about 1.14 pp for every A (until he get 800A), 0,71pp for every S and 0,84pp for every SS (up to 90 SS)



So, it's possible to say, that, if You want get more pp, You may try improve your combo, accuracy, get some A and SS, get much more S and play more.
When I've combined all variables possible, I've got some terrifying solutions.



And correlation 0.73 is the best correlation, I could get.
So pp is 73% about getting A, S, SS, level, accuracy and playing more and 27% about non-related skills.
Ofc, all this is just statistics and anything can be wrong, but it's still better, than nothingness.

If You have questions, I can answer this and post more graphics, trnds and formulas. And I would be glad to hear about my numerous mistakes in English. Thanks.

tl;dr "Play more" statistically confirmed, getting ss is useless and 99/100 is perfect accuracy
ZenithPhantasm

Post Scriptum wrote:

tl;dr "Play more" statistically confirmed, getting ss is useless and 99|100 is perfect accuracy
Thank you.
Also play more
-Makishima S-
tl;dr "Play more" statistically confirmed, getting ss is useless and 99/100 is perfect accuracy
Perfect!

Bauxe
Post Scriptum, I like you.
Endaris
Nice post.
It tells me nothing I didn't know yet but it's cool to have some statistical backup for your trashtalk.
chainpullz
https://osu.ppy.sh/u/dj%20fuduji < best of low acc players has 7k

Edit: Lest we not forget MinG or Jesse either:

https://osu.ppy.sh/u/ming3012
https://osu.ppy.sh/u/jesus1412
Topic Starter
el-ev-en

Bauxe wrote:

Post Scriptum, I like you.
Nice!

chainpullz wrote:

https://osu.ppy.sh/u/dj%20fuduji < best of low acc players has 7k

Edit: Lest we not forget MinG or Jesse either:

https://osu.ppy.sh/u/ming3012
https://osu.ppy.sh/u/jesus1412
I used only statistics for Russian players (i said it in the post), cause this data was much easier to collect than all top 50k osu players, so I've obviously missed these players, thank You for information. Still I guess, these players are very rare and it's rather their "style", something, what makes them special, than way to progress. Ofc, I've would written this differently, if I've found out this earlier.

Also, https://osu.ppy.sh/u/2003326
KanoSet
maths is justice
can we sticky this please
vsprite
Interesting. I would upvote if I could.
deletemyaccount
This thread needs more love!

Great job OP, this data is pretty interesting. The fact that higher levels usually means higher pp because less retries/higher combos is something I never thought about but really does reinforce the concept of playing more/finishing maps being highly beneficial for improvement.
Saphirshroom
That was a really interesting read, thank you! I've got a few questions:

What's the black curve and the red blob in the first two pictures?
How did you collect the data? Did you just kill peppy's servers with wget?
Topic Starter
el-ev-en

Saphirshroom wrote:

That was a really interesting read, thank you! I've got a few questions:

What's the black curve and the red blob in the first two pictures?
How did you collect the data? Did you just kill peppy's servers with wget?


I've made this black curve in Paint to separate special group of players, who can get decent pp even with Accuracy<96%
Red blob is just curve. It looks like blob, cause statistical software is connecting every dot/point of this curve with red lines. I made this curve black now. I guess, I had to make it clear earlier.
Also second graphic is graphic with numbers of A-grades (horizontal) and numbers of pp (vertical). Circles are players with different numbers of A and PP. Red curve is how software trying to approximate this (find average pp for each accuracy and make curve with this). And It is possible to see, that people, who have more A, have more pp average also. But it isn't so true for players, who have more, than 800 A grades.


First graphic is graphic with Accuracy (horizontal) and pp (vertical) for different players. There is approximation for this too and I've made this more clear with black curve this time.


It's possible to see, that there is group of players with acc<96% whose results (pp) grow almost independently from accuracy. And I've tried to separate this players with black curve in original post.
Also You can see, that players with Accuracy>99.5% have worse total perfomance, than players with 99% Accuracy.

How I collect data:
I just ctrl+c ctrl+v first 40 pages. I've collected this data for 5 minutes.
It wasn't bad for peppy. I'm sure, there are much easier ways to collect data, but I'm bad in programming.
Topic Starter
el-ev-en

Philantropist wrote:

This thread needs more love!

Great job OP, this data is pretty interesting. The fact that higher levels usually means higher pp because less retries/higher combos is something I never thought about but really does reinforce the concept of playing more/finishing maps being highly beneficial for improvement.

If it's interesting, it is how average pp changes with different player's level. Correlation between level and pp is really strong.

It's the same, but for Play Count instead

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